Will Gerrit Cole Get To Free Agency?
For most of the season, it has seemed quite unlikely that Gerrit Cole would be part of next year's free agent class. The defending AL Cy Young winner has an opt-out clause after this season, but the deal is structured in such a way that makes it difficult for him to get to the market.
This is year five of his nine-year, $324MM free agent pact. Cole's dominant first four seasons in the Bronx have already established him as one of the best top-of-the-market signings in recent history. The deal allows Cole to opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM after this season. The Yankees could then void the opt-out by triggering a $36MM club option covering the 2029 campaign. In the aftermath of Cole's first Cy Young, it was fair to presume the right-hander would opt out, only for New York to exercise the '29 option. Cole's agent Scott Boras suggested as much last December. That's no longer a lock.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Soto, Bichette, Tigers, Cardinals
In this week's mailbag, I discuss Juan Soto's free agent contract, the Rangers' 2025 rotation, possible matches in a Bo Bichette trade, outlooks next year for the Tigers and Cardinals, and much more.
Jason asks:
Juan Soto is obviously going to be the talk of the offseason. He has also undoubtedly proven a huge asset in helping Aaron Judge be walked less (even if hitting in front of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & dollars?
Bob asks:
I have watched Juan Soto a lot this year and am thinking about pros and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or any other team signing) him to a long-term free agent contract during the offseason. He is obviously a great hitter and great teammate but as I have watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he is a good, but not great defender and he is not particularly fast. Based on that, I wonder how he will age and what he will look like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I suspect, at age 25, he will be looking for a 12+ year contract and I am not sure what a 37-year-old (or even a 33-year-old) Soto will look like.
I was talking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer and he thought that Soto might sign a shorter-term contract with the Yankees because of the "intangibles" of playing in New York but I am doubtful about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and biggest dollars, no matter who offers it. My fear is that Soto will become another Robinson Cano - not so pretty as he ages. On the other hand, the WAR that he will produce for the next 5-8 years might be worth eating 4 or 5 less productive years. Thoughts?
No one knows how much Soto will get, and nothing is guaranteed.
I remember when the "perfect" free agent hit the market six years ago. Bryce Harper was a Boras Corporation client going into his age-26 season. I'll admit that his 2018 contract year was not nearly as impressive as Soto's, and Harper had not quieted modest concerns about his defense to the degree Soto has. But Harper was a Hall of Fame track superstar in his prime, just like Soto.
At various points leading up to Harper's free agency, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM were bandied about. After much debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction. We felt Harper would fly past Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM record, which had not been achieved on the open market. We also thought Harper would sacrifice a record average annual value, "settling" for a $30MM AAV that would cause less competitive balance tax pain.
Instead, Harper's market was inexplicably cold given his track record, ceiling, and age. He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a way of inching past Stanton's total by a mere $5MM or 1.5%. So we ended up being $90MM high on our prediction, but time has shown that many teams that were unwilling to top the Phillies' offer would have benefited from doing so.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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What Might It Cost To Extend Garrett Crochet?
Despite months of trade speculation, Garrett Crochet was not moved at the deadline. His contract status seemed to be a big reason. A few days before the deadline, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Crochet sought an extension if he was going to pitch in the postseason. Whether he'd simply have refused to play in October if he landed with a contender isn't clear. Crochet didn't have the leverage to force a team to sign him long term.
At the same time, Crochet's stance complicated the White Sox's efforts to find a package they felt worthwhile. GM Chris Getz seemed taken aback by the public revelation of Crochet's extension desire (link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). While Getz maintained that the relationship between the player and team was still strong, he said the manner in which the situation was addressed was "a bit hurtful ... considering I felt like we could have handled it a little bit differently."
The Sox continued to discuss Crochet right up to the July 30 deadline. No deal came together. Only the White Sox know whether that's because of the extension hold-up. In any case, he'll finish out the year in Chicago. Crochet could be the most popular trade candidate of the upcoming offseason. The Sox are very unlikely to be competitive in the next two seasons. Chicago should try to move Crochet this winter.
Maybe they won't need to make progress on an extension to do so. Crochet's desire for a long-term deal was tied to his workload reaching a level which he'd never approached in college or the minor leagues. His camp was worried about his arm health if he pitched into October. That's not happening with the White Sox, who can pull back on his workload in an effort to keep him on the field. They're already doing so. Crochet hasn't thrown more than four innings in a game since the start of July. That's generally not a performance question but a clear goal to avoid stressing his arm. Chicago pulled him yesterday after 57 pitches and four innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts.
Even if an extension isn't an absolute necessity to facilitate a trade, Crochet is presumably still amenable to discussing a long-term contract. That's unlikely to come with the White Sox, who are at the nadir of a rebuild and have never guaranteed a player more than $75MM (the ill-fated Andrew Benintendi deal). If a contender wanted to extend Crochet -- either as a condition of a trade or simply after acquiring him -- what kind of price could it take?
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MLB Mailbag: Soto, Skubal, Cubs, A’s, Braves, Crews, Cardinals, NL Awards
I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's MLB Mailbag! This week, I fielded questions on Juan Soto's free agency, Tarik Skubal's emergence as an elite arm, Hector Neris' release, the Cubs' luxury-tax status, the Athletics' outlook in Sacramento, the Braves' litany of injuries and their playoff chances, the Cardinals and player development, Dylan Crews' timeline, various NL Award outlooks and, lastly, made some way-too-early, surely-incorrect picks for free agent destinations.
Let's dive in!
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?
The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.
By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.
Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.
As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."
Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Ray
In today's mailbag, we get into the Nationals' needs, the Cardinals' situations with Nolans Arenado and Gorman, how the Cubs might approach the offseason, whether Robbie Ray will opt out, and much more.
Kevin asks:
The Nats have a lot of talented youngsters ready to join the team but opening the window will require some veterans. Should they: Make us whole and try to sign Juan Soto, use that money to hire two or three solid veterans, or try several shorter term contracts because the window will really first open in 2026?
Soto returning to the Nats is an intriguing idea. A lot of the best free agent signings have been for young superstars, though it's unclear whether the Nationals would offer even more than the $440MM Soto turned down two years ago. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has said he made three offers to Soto within a year, and none of them were countered. Since then, the Lerners decided not to sell the Nationals, so you could say there's more certainty with ownership.
One question is whether the Lerners will return to the days of a top-ten payroll. I don't know the answer to that, but they have almost nothing on the books after this year aside from the Stephen Strasburg contract.
As it relates to Soto, it's worth asking whether the Nationals committing to an outfielder is a good use of resources. A Hall of Fame talent like Soto would be a great addition to any team, but if James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Robert Hassell III all become productive Major League outfielders as the Nationals expect, something would have to give.
Here's a look around the diamond to assess what the Nats might need:
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Alex Bregman Has Returned To Form
Alex Bregman did not have a good start to his platform year. The two-time All-Star hit .216/.283/.294 through the season's first month. His production in May was better (.221/.276/.442) but still far below his typical level. Bregman wasn't the biggest culprit for the Astros' rough start -- rotation injuries and a complete lack of production out of first base shouldered the majority of the blame -- but his underperformance was another red flag in a season that looked like it might go off the rails.
That's all changed in the past two and a half months. Player and team alike have found their stride since the start of June. The Astros are 39-22 going back to June 1. That includes an ongoing seven-game win streak that is the current best in MLB. A team that was once 12 games below .500 and 10 games back in the division race now holds a game and a half lead on the Mariners in the AL West. Houston and Seattle have almost completely pulled away from the defending champion Rangers, who have plummeted 9.5 back of a playoff spot.
Bregman is one of the biggest reasons for that resurgence. He has been a top 25 hitter in MLB since the start of June, hitting .302/.357/.516 with 12 homers. He's got five longballs in August alone, tying him for fifth (behind Jake Burger, Corey Seager, Ketel Marte and Juan Soto) in that regard. Bregman has put his early-season swoon behind him, albeit with one notable change from his pre-2024 production.
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