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AL West Notes: Springer, Iwakuma, Meyer

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Some injury updates from around the AL West…

  • George Springer will be in the Astros’ starting lineup tomorrow, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).  The outfielder made his return to the field today with a pinch-hit appearance, marking Springer’s first action after missing Houston’s previous six games due to an injury to his left quad.  Between the quad problem and a DL stint due to a left thumb sprain, Springer has only appeared in four games since August 5, one of several injury absences that has contributed to the Astros’ narrowed lead over Oakland in the AL West race.  Even before the injuries, however, Springer was stuck in a protracted slump; he has only a .201/.304/.346 slash line over his last 272 plate appearances.
  • Hisashi Iwakuma pitched his first inning of the 2018 season, allowing one run on two hits during the frame as he began an A-ball rehab assignment (hat tip to MLB.com’s Jake Rill).  It was Iwakuma’s first action of any kind since a minor league start in June 2017, as shoulder problems limited him to six Major League starts in 2017 and have continued to keep him sidelined all of this year, despite his undergoing arthroscopic surgery last September.  If Iwakuma can stay healthy, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has suggested that the veteran righty could see some action in Seattle’s bullpen before the season is out.
  • Angels right-hander Alex Meyer recently received a cortisone shot in his bothersome throwing shoulder, GM Billy Eppler told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register and other reporters.  Despite this setback in Meyer’s lengthy recovery from shoulder surgery, he is expected to resume throwing in a few days’ time.  Meyer underwent the procedure to fix his torn shoulder labrum last September, and wasn’t expected to return until the 2019 season, so this setback doesn’t necessarily hint at larger problems for the 28-year-old as he tries to resume his career.

Health Notes: Martin, Bauer, Devers/Kinsler, Hicks, DeShields, Altuve, Helli/Stras, Wacha/Martinez

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In his latest column, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer calls it “unlikely” that outfielder Leonys Martin will play with the Indians again this season. A trade deadline pickup, Martin has been on the disabled list for more than a week after being diagnosed with a bacterial infection that, at one point, was considered to be life-threatening in nature. While all of baseball breathed a collective sigh of relief when the Indians announced that Martin was in stable condition and expected to make a full recovery, his absence puts Cleveland back in the same spot it was prior to acquiring him in late July. Michael Brantley is performing well again as the team’s regular left fielder, but the rest of the outfield mix is comprised by struggling rookie Greg Allen and poorly performing veterans Rajai Davis and Melky Cabrera. It seems reasonable to expect that the team will be on the hunt for additional outfield help between now and Aug. 31.

Here are some additional health updates from around the game:

  • Indians skipper Terry Francona says the club anticipates that breakout righty Trevor Bauer will be sidelined for four to six weeks with a fibula stress fracture, as T.J. Zuppe of The Athletic was among those to tweet. That’s obviously a huge disappointment for a pitcher who has emerged as one of the best in baseball this year. With the postseason beckoning, it’s also a big concern for the Cleveland ballclub. Of course, the team will not need to worry about the loss down the stretch with the division all but in hand. But it’ll certainly be interesting to see just how Bauer is brought along as the playoffs approach.
  • It was a mixed bag of injury news today for the Red Sox, who will send third baseman Rafael Devers to the 10-day disabled list while activating second bagger Ian Kinsler. No further roster moves will be necessary to accommodate the change. Devers is hitting the shelf for the third time in the last six weeks or so and it’s the second occasion as to which the hamstring is to blame. That said, it’s not clear that the organization really believes there’s cause for concern that Devers won’t be at full strength come October.
  • Tigers backstop John Hicks likely won’t make it back this year after requiring abdominal surgery, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press recently reported. That’s a disappointing turn for a player who has turned in a solid performance in a robust role this year. Hicks, who is nearing his 29th birthday, has hit within range of league average at the MLB level since landing in Detroit. While he has been miscast as a part-time first baseman, his offensive work is more than adequate for a time-sharing catcher.
  • The Rangers have placed center fielder Delino DeShields Jr. on the 10-day DL with a finger fracture. He suffered the break to the tip of his right middle finger. Drew Robinson will be recalled to take the roster spot. It has been a tough year at the plate for DeShields, who turned 26 just yesterday. He has swiped 18 bags on the year, but carries only a .204/.303/.272 slash over 348 plate appearances. As the Rangers look ahead to an offseason of uncertainty, they’d surely like to see DeShields in action as much as possible, so the hope will be that he can bounce back relatively quickly.
  • Elsewhere in Texas, the slumping Astros were glad today to get some promising injury reports. Outfielder George Springer was activated off of the 10-day DL, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports (Twitter links). Meanwhile, star second bagger Jose Altuve will likely need a rehab stint but seems to be progressing from his knee issues. The ’Stros are trying to hold off a surprisingly strong challenge in the division.
  • Nationals righty Jeremy Hellickson is destined for his own DL stint, as Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Fortunately, he’s dealing with a sprain rather than a break in his wrist, which was injured in a play at the plate. It seems the Nats are hopeful that Stephen Strasburg could be ready to return by Tuesday, when Hellickson was next scheduled to start. Losing Hellickson would only be the latest blow for an organization that has dealt with problem after problem in 2018. While it’s still not impossible to imagine a late surge, the Nats need all hands on deck to make a comeback plausible.
  • For the Cardinals, it has been all positives of late. But the team could still stand to get a few pieces back. In particular, righties Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez are on the come back trail. As MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets, Wacha is set to begin a rehab assignment in short order and Martinez is now working in a relief capacity in the minors. In the case of Martinez, the plan is for him to shift to the bullpen when he is ready to roll, which perhaps won’t be far off now that he’s pitching competitively.

Astros To Place George Springer On 10-Day DL

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The Astros will place outfielder George Springer on the 10-day disabled list due to a left thumb sprain, with MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link) and others reporting the news.  Derek Fisher will be called up to take Springer’s spot on the 25-man roster, as The Athletic’s Robert Murray tweeted earlier today.

Springer suffered the injury yesterday, when his thumb was clipped by the glove of Dodgers shortstop Chris Taylor while Springer was attempting to steal second base.  X-rays taken yesterday on Springer’s thumb were negative, and he is only expected to miss around two weeks, as he avoided a more serious UCL sprain.

[Updated Astros depth chart at Roster Resource]

Still, even two weeks without the star outfielder is an issue for an Astros team that is suddenly missing several of its most notable names due to injury.  Springer joins Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Chris Devenski, Lance McCullers Jr. and Brian McCann on the disabled list, with only Correa potentially close to a return.  Houston’s lead over the streaking Athletics in the AL West has shrunk to just four games, so the Astros could find themselves as active players in the August trade market to bolster themselves down the stretch.  Outfield depth could be of particular concern, as some combination of Fisher, Tony Kemp, and Jake Marisnick will be handling center field and mostly left field duties for the time being.  Utilityman Marwin Gonzalez could also see some action in left field (though he has been filling in for Altuve at second base), while Josh Reddick will hold the fort in right field.

Springer has 19 homers and a .250/.335/.436 slash line over 485 PA this season.  While still solid numbers, they represent the lowest wRC+ (115) over Springer’s five-year career, and a marked step down from his .889 OPS in 2017.  He was off to a strong start to the year before hitting a prolonged slump in mid-June, as Springer has hit just .175/.281/.312 over his last 180 plate appearances.  Some bad luck has been involved, as Springer’s .353 xwOBA is notably higher than his .331 wOBA.

Injury Updates: Springer, Altuve, Sale, Devers, Erasmo

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The latest on some injury situations from around baseball…

  • George Springer left today’s game in the third inning with what the Astros described as “left thumb discomfort.”  Springer suffered the injury while sliding into second base on an attempted steal, with manger A.J. Hinch telling MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter video link) and other reporters that Springer’s thumb was clipped by the glove of Dodgers shortstop Chris Taylor during the tag.  The severity of the problem isn’t yet known, though McTaggart tweets that Springer’s x-rays were negative.  Jake Marisnick took Springer’s spot in the lineup, and one would think Marisnick or youngsters Kyle Tucker or Derek Fisher would get the bulk of playing time if Springer had to miss significant time.  Losing Springer would be another blow to a Houston team that has suddenly been bit by the injury bug, as such key figures as Lance McCullers Jr., Chris Devenski, and (most of all) Jose Altuve have all been placed on the DL within the last two weeks.
  • Speaking of Altuve, he won’t return from the disabled list after the 10-day minimum, as he’ll instead head to Houston to have his right knee re-examined by team doctors (the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome was among those who reported the news).  The star second baseman hit the DL on July 28, with a backdated placement of July 26, due to knee soreness.  “I don’t know that we can consider it a setback other than we can consider that he needs more time to heal,” A.J. Hinch said, while GM Jeff Luhnow said the team saw the re-examination as a “checkpoint on where [Altuve is] at.”  The absolute earliest Altuve could return is on Thursday for the start of the Astros’ series with the Mariners.
  • Chris Sale will also spend some extra time on the DL, as the Red Sox ace wasn’t listed as a probable starter during Boston’s three-game series in Toronto from Tuesday to Thursday.  (MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith was among those with the information.)  Mild shoulder inflammation sent Sale to the DL on July 31 (retroactive to July 28), and the expectation was that Sale would only miss one start, with a return targeted for Wednesday’s game.  Instead, Brian Johnson will take the hill for the Sox against the Blue Jays.
  • The Red Sox could get third baseman Rafael Devers back for that Wednesday game, as the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato tweets that Devers will rejoin the team in Toronto after playing in a minor league rehab game on Monday.  A hamstring strain sent Devers to the DL on July 28, and Wednesday is the first day he is eligible to return.  Devers also missed some time earlier this month with shoulder inflammation.  The young slugger has been inconsistent (.245/.295/.425 in 396 PA) over his first full Major League season, and his particular struggles against left-handed pitching could put Devers in platoon duty down the stretch rather than an everyday role at third base.
  • Erasmo Ramirez is slated for a rehab outing today and is expected to rejoin the Mariners sometime this week, the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish writes.  Ramirez has been sidelined since April recovering from a teres major strain, and has only made two appearances this season after another DL stint (lat strain) to begin the 2018 campaign.  It isn’t yet clear if Ramirez will work as a starter or reliever when he is activated, as his role could hinge on whether the struggling Felix Hernandez can get on track.

West Injury Notes: Dodgers, Lamb, Springer, Pence

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Barring setbacks, Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner and infielder Logan Forsythe are slated to come off the disabled list Tuesday, manager Dave Roberts told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and other reporters Saturday. They’re among a host of important Dodgers who have missed time this year during the reigning NL champs’ stunningly awful start (16-22), and Turner’s absence has been especially damaging. The superstar hasn’t played this season on account of the broken left wrist he suffered in late March. Forsythe, meanwhile, has been out since mid-April with right shoulder inflammation. He came out of the gates slowly before then, hitting just .174/.224/.283 in 49 plate appearances.

  • Diamondbacks third baseman Jake Lamb will begin a rehab assignment at the Single-A level on Sunday, per an announcement from Arizona. Lamb has missed nearly the entire season to this point, having gone on the DL on April 3 with shoulder and elbow issues. The 24-15 Diamondbacks have still raced to the NL’s best record, though, in part because fill-in third baseman Daniel Descalso has slashed a terrific .263/.357/.516 with four home runs in 115 PAs.
  • Astros outfielder George Springer is dealing with a left elbow contusion, which kept him out of the lineup Saturday, but manager A.J. Hinch expects him to avoid a DL stint (via Christian Boutwell of MLB.com). Springer suffered the injury Friday when Rangers left-hander Cole Hamels hit him with a 92 mph fastball. The reigning World Series MVP has perhaps been the Astros’ best offensive player in the early going, having slashed .296/.363/.506 with eight homers in 182 PAs.
  • The Giants aren’t going to bring left fielder Hunter Pence off the DL during the upcoming week unless they’re convinced he’ll provide a boost to their offense, Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group writes. The 35-year-old Pence was unable to help San Francisco before going on the DL three-plus weeks ago with a thumb issue, as he hit .172/.197/.190 and posted a minus-1 wRC+ across 61 trips to the plate. Now, thanks to his early season woes and manager Bruce Bochy’s desire to carry an extra pitcher, Pence’s return may be delayed.

Astros Sign George Springer To Two-Year Deal

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11:15:am: The Astros have announced the signing.

8:48am: The Astros have agreed to a two-year, $24MM contract with outfielder George Springer, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Springer, a Super Two player who was in his second trip through the arbitration process, will earn $12MM in each year of the deal. Springer is represented by the Legacy Agency.

George Springer | Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Springer and the Astros had yet to resolve their arbitration case and were scheduled to head to a hearing this month. He’d filed for a $10.5MM salary, while Houston had countered with a figure of $8.5MM (as shown in MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker). Instead, the two-year pact will buy out Springer’s second and third years of arbitration eligibility, though he’ll have one remaining year of arbitration left upon completion of this deal given the aforementioned Super Two status.

The 28-year-old Springer is coming off the finest season of his big league career to date, having posted a sensational .283/.367/.522 batting line with 34 homers and 29 doubles through 629 plate appearances. Springer logged a career-high 643 innings in center field this past season and graded well there per both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, although those two metrics, which are usually bullish on his corner-outfield work, didn’t regard his defense in right field very favorably in 2017. (With Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher and Marwin Gonzalez all in the mix for corner outfield time in 2018, Springer figures to once again spend more time in center field than in right field this coming season.)

Overall, Springer was a driving force not only behind the Astros’ romp of the American League West but the team’s first World Series championship in franchise history. Springer went 7-for-17 with a homer, two doubles and two walks in 19 ALDS plate appearances, and after an ice-cold ALCS showing against the Yankees, he laid waste to Dodgers pitching in the World Series en route to MVP honors. Springer belted five homers in seven games and hit .379/.471/1.000 through 34 PAs in the Fall Classic.

Now that Springer has agreed to a two-year deal and Ken Giles has won his arbitration hearing, the Astros’ lone remaining arbitration case if that of Collin McHugh. The right-hander filed for a $5MM salary for the upcoming season, while the Astros countered with a $4.55MM sum.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Unresolved 2018 Arbitration Cases

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We’ve covered a whole lot of arbitration deals today, many of them reached before today’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Some other agreements have come together after team and player submitted their numbers. It’s still possible, of course, that these situations will be resolved before an arbitration hearing becomes necessary. (At this point, we seem to lack full clarity on teams’ approaches to negotiations after the filing deadline. And most organizations make exceptions for multi-year deals even if they have a file-and-trial stance.)

Some situations could even be dealt with in short order. As things stand, though, these unresolved arbitration cases could turn into significant hearings. (As always, MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration projections can be found here; you will also want to reference MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration tracker.)

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Dallas Keuchel

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The Astros have settled with starter Dallas Keuchel, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle first tweeted. Keuchel will earn $13.2MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).

Notably, the Astros have not been able to work out agreements wit a few other important players. Outfielder George Springer, reliever Ken Giles, and starter Collin McHugh will file figures, Kaplan tweets, though of course it’s still possible they will settle before going to a hearing.

Keuchel, 30, posted a strong 2.90 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 on the year in 2017, though he was limited by injury to 145 2/3 innings. That tamped down on his earning power somewhat, though Keuchel still earns a healthy raise on his $9.15MM salary from 2017. He had been projected to earn $12.6MM by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz, but tops that figure by $600K.

As things stand, this’ll be Keuchel’s final season in Houston. He’ll hit the open market after the 2018 campaign unless the sides are able to work out a longer-term agreement at some point.

Arbitration Breakdown: George Springer

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Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available.

George Springer enters his second year of arbitration eligibility (as a Super Two player) having compiled a solid .283 average to go along with 34 home runs and 85 runs batted in in 2017. As a result, he is projected for a $5MM raise to take him up to an $8.9MM salary in 2018.

George Springer | Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

One thing complicating Springer’s case is something that could affect a great number of cases this year—the high home run level throughout the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs, which represented a 26 percent increase over the league average from the previous five seasons. As such, when examining players with similar totals over that five-year span, there’s no way of knowing whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Springer the same as they would in an environment when home runs were less prolific.

My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; rather, the data has shown that run environment has not historically been a significant component in the arbitration process. Hitters in high-scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower-scoring years, and pitchers in low-scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high-scoring years. Springer could potentially be treated by a panel (or negotiated with in the shadow of what such a panel would say) as someone who hit closer to 26 home runs than someone with 34. But even still, his list of comparables shows solid earning potential.

There have only been a couple players entering their second year of eligibility with averages north of .275 and at least 25 home runs in the past five years, and both are from last year. Manny Machado got a $6.5MM raise after hitting .294 with 37 homers and 96 RBIs. Charlie Blackmon got a $3.8MM raise after hitting .324 with 29 home runs and knocking in 82 runs.

Machado is a more obvious ceiling because his numbers are not inflated by Coors Field, and he hit substantially more home runs than Blackmon in 2016. Blackmon might serve as a floor in Springer’s case due to the fact that he hit fewer balls into the seats, despite playing in Coors. However, his high batting average could make him more favorable at the same time. In the end, I think Springer might be closer to Blackmon than he is to Machado.

Few other players really show up as decent comparables, especially when limiting the field to those who did not sign multi-year deals. Looking to a statistical comparable that did sign a multi-year deal, J.D. Martinez signed a two-year contract covering 2016-17 which included a $3MM raise in the first year of the pact. It also was preceded by an exchange of figures in which Martinez asked for a $4.25MM raise, while the Tigers countered with an offer of a $2.25MM raise. Considering Martinez’s .282, 38 homers and 102 RBIs in the platform season for that two-year deal, this could suggest a lower number for Springer.

I am guessing Springer ends up closer to a $4MM raise than $5MM based on the cases of Blackmon and Martinez. But with little comparability and the uncertainty of how a panel will consider the relevance of Coors Field or Martinez’s multi-year deal, Springer may be able to land closer to that $5MM raise. This would still be south of Machado’s $6.5MM raise but would safely beat the other two players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros Notes: Keuchel, Springer, Correa, Altuve

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The Astros’ enviable core of talent has already delivered one World Series title and set them up as contenders through at least next season.  The big-picture question facing Houston, however, will be which members of the roster are kept over the long term.  Here are some notes from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman on the state of any Astros contract extensions…

  • Dallas Keuchel is currently in the process of switching his representation.  The ace southpaw has one final year of arbitration eligibility (MLBTR projects him to earn $12.6MM) before hitting the open market as part of the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class.  The agency change “and timing could suggest he’s thinking about change,” Heyman writes, though Keuchel has been willing to discuss an extension with the Astros in the past.  Previous talks didn’t result in a long-term deal, however — Heyman notes that one of the team’s initial offers was similar to the early-career extensions signed by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale.
  • There haven’t been any extension talks with George Springer in “at least a year and a half.”  Houston also made an early-career extension offer to Springer, and then a significantly larger offer around two years ago.  Springer is in line for extra money as a Super Two player, as he earned $3.9MM in 2017 and is projected for a big raise up to $8.9MM in 2018.  Since the Astros have Springer under team control through the 2020 season, there isn’t any immediate need for an extension, unless the Astros want cost-certainty over his arb years or want to establish Springer as a long-term cornerstone player into the next decade.
  • Some interesting details are provided on Jose Altuve’s representation history, as the second baseman initially parted ways with Scott Boras in 2013 when Boras advised Altuve against signing an extension with the Astros.  Altuve went on to indeed sign that extension in July 2013, and Altuve’s subsequent rise to superstar status made that four-year, $12.5MM deal with two club option years into a major bargain.  (Houston exercised the first of those club options for 2018, netting Altuve another $6MM in guaranteed money.)  Altuve re-hired Boras as his agent in July 2016, which Heyman writes “could be taken as an indication he has a different mindset now that he has the security” of that initial contract.  Boras clients generally end up reaching free agency, though there have been enough high-profile exceptions to that trend (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez) that there is still hope at a longer-term deal to keep Altuve in Houston.
  • Carlos Correa seems perfectly willing to go year-to-year until he hits free agency.  The shortstop said last spring that he was at least willing to listen about a long-term deal but only until he hit his arbitration years; Greg Genske, Correa’s agent, made the bolder statement that Correa had no interest at all in an early-career extension.  Last April, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth explored the many forms a Correa extension could take, if the two sides did happen to come to an agreement.  Correa will become eligible for arbitration next offseason, so the team has one more year to work out a multi-year deal, assuming Correa’s previously-stated deadline still holds.

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