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Astros To Promote Joey Loperfido

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The Astros will call up Joey Loperfido prior to Tuesday’s game against the Guardians, KPRC 2’s Ari Alexander reports (via X).  Loperfido isn’t on Houston’s 40-man roster, so the Astros will have to make at least one roster move to find room for the first baseman/outfielder.

Rumors about Loperfido’s promotion have swirled ever since Spring Training, when the young slugger drew attention with an 1.076 OPS over 41 Grapefruit League plate appearances.  He kept swinging a hot bat through the start of the Triple-A season, taking a .276/.376/.684 slash line through his first 117 PA of the minor league season.  Loperfido has also gone yard 13 times, as he launched his 13th home run of the young season in Triple-A Sugar Land’s 10-5 win today over the Reno Aces.

While such absurd numbers would make any prospect seem like a candidate for their MLB debut, Loperfido’s production has particularly stood out given how little the Astros have received from the first base position.  Jose Abreu is hitting .099/.156/.113 over 77 PA this season, translating to an astonishing -21 wRC+.  Though Abreu also struggled for much of the 2023 season, his rebound near the end of the year and his good showing in the playoffs led to some hope that the veteran had gotten on track, yet Abreu has limped out of the gates with the worst stretch of his career.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored Abreu’s situation, noting that Abreu’s contract (roughly $16.25MM remaining this season and $19.5MM in 2025) has certainly made the Astros wary about sitting him down, or even releasing Abreu entirely.  If Loperfido isn’t going to entirely supplant Abreu, however, Jon Singleton certainly seems like a potential cut given how Singleton is batting only .238/.319/.286 over 47 PA.  Since Singleton and Loperfido are both left-handed hitters, having Loperfido take over as the complementary first option alongside the right-handed hitting Abreu seems like a logical move for Houston.  Trey Cabbage was also on the roster as the 27th man for this weekend’s series with the Rockies in Mexico City, but Cabbage is probably more likely to head back to Triple-A.

A seventh-round pick for the Astros in the 2021 draft, Loperfido (who turns 25 in two weeks) didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, as he posted strong numbers in each of his first two minor league seasons.  He moved up the ladder quickly enough to make his Triple-A debut in 2023, though his .235/.333/.403 slash line in 138 PA with Sugar Land last year didn’t hint at his eye-popping breakout in store for 2024.

Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked Loperfido sixth on their preseason lists of Houston’s best prospects, noting his raw power potential but also highlighting his possible contributions as more than just a slugging first baseman.  Indeed, Loperfido has spent more time as an outfielder than as a first baseman, with the bulk of his minor league innings coming in center field.  Loperfido could therefore find himself getting some at-bats as a left fielder or center fielder in place of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers — both are right-handed hitters, and McCormick isn’t producing much at the plate.  Loperfido also brings some good speed to the table, with 64 steals in 79 attempts during his minor league career.

Loperfido’s 30.8% strikeout rate at Triple-A is certainly cause for concern, plus some grain of salt must always be applied to numbers posted in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.  It should also be noted that while Abreu has been a glaring weak spot in the lineup, the Astros are hitting quite well on the whole, as pitching (and injuries within the rotation) has been the much bigger reason behind the team’s unexpectedly slow start.  Houston therefore doesn’t need Loperfido to be an immediate star right away, and frankly, the bar has been set so low by Abreu and Singleton that even average production from Loperfido would represent a nice upgrade.

Astros To Activate Framber Valdez On Sunday, Option J.P. France

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Astros manager Joe Espada informed members of the club’s beat, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that left-hander Framber Valdez will be activated off the injured list to start Sunday’s game against the Rockies in Mexico City. Rome also reports (X link) that right-hander J.P. France will be optioned in a corresponding move.

The news is obviously great for Valdez personally. He and the club got a scare when he landed on the injured list earlier this month due to soreness in his throwing elbow. It’s always a concerning element when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured but a number of high-profile pitchers requiring season-ending surgery this year only heightened the worry.

Thankfully, it seems Valdez avoided a really serious injury. He started throwing again shortly after being placed on the IL and will now be quickly activated, just barely over the 15-day minimum and without requiring a rehab assignment.

The news is also great for the team, as the Astros have been scrambling to fill their rotation all season along. They came into they year knowing they would be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, since they each underwent significant elbow surgeries last year and won’t be available until midseason at the earliest. But the rotation was further thinned out during Spring Training when Justin Verlander and José Urquidy each landed on the injured list.

Valdez then landed on the injured list a few weeks ago, further depleting the rotation mix. Verlander returned to health and rejoined the club about a week ago, but then Cristian Javier swapped places with him, landing on the IL due to neck discomfort. Now that Valdez is back, he’ll slot into the rotation next to Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti.

France being sent down registers as a surprise. He’s certainly not out to an amazing start to the season, with a 7.46 earned run average through five starts. But he did quite well last year, with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings. He may have been challenged to maintain those kinds of results going forward, as his 17.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average last year, but he’s actually increased his strikeout rate to 18.2% this year.

His struggles in the early going could perhaps be a bit based on luck. His .289 batting average on balls in play last year has ticked up to .321 this season, while his strand rate has gone from 76.7% to 62.2%. His 5.52 FIP and 4.95 SIERA both suggest he deserved to have slightly better results than what he actually got.

Beyond looking at France in a vacuum, it’s also surprising to see him as the corresponding move when considering the other options. Both Brown and Arrighetti still have options and each has allowed more earned runs than innings pitched this year. Brown had a 9.68 ERA through five outings while Arrighetti has a 10.97 ERA through three.

A deeper look perhaps sheds some light on the decision, however. Arrighetti has struck out 25.9% of batters faced, far more than France. His 12.1% walk rate is certainly on the high side but he’s also been victimized by a .500 BABIP and 52.8% strand rate. His 3.81 FIP and 4.04 SIERA are actually quite serviceable.

Brown’s rate stats for the year aren’t amazing but his numbers are also heavily skewed by one nightmare outing in which he allowed nine runs on 11 hits against the Royals while only recording two outs. Perhaps the Astros are giving him the benefit of the doubt since he had a 26.8% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 52.4% ground ball rate last year. Perhaps the club will speak on their reasoning in the coming days.

The diminished rotation is a huge reason why the Astros are out to its worst start in years. They are currently 7-19, the worst club in the American League apart from the White Sox. Their starters have a collective 5.21 ERA, which is better than just the White Sox and Rockies out of the 30 MLB clubs. Valdez has a 3.38 ERA in his career and should help stabilize the group as long as he’s pitching like his usual self. If Javier and Urquidy are able to come back soon, that could further strengthen things.

Elsewhere on the roster, the team is allowed a 27th man for the Mexico City Series, though it has to be a position player. Per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Astros will have first baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage as their extra body.

It’s unclear if the Astros intend to have Cabbage around for just the games in Mexico or a longer stay, but it will perhaps be a situation worth monitoring since the club has been getting atrocious production from the first base spot this year. Earlier this week, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at the struggles of José Abreu, who is now hitting .065/.132/.081 on the year. Jon Singleton has started in Abreu’s place a few times lately. His line of .244/.326/.293 is far better than Abreu’s but is still below average, translating to a 88 wRC+.

Cabbage has generally hit a ton in the minors but also had his share of strikeout problems, a trend that has continued this year. Acquired from the Angels in the offseason, Cabbage has struck out in 31.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances this year and also walked in 23.1% of them. He has three home runs and is hitting .271/.440/.486 for a 137 wRC+ while also stealing seven bases. That’s pretty similar production to his time in Triple-A last year, when he hit 30 home runs, stole 32 bases and struck out 30% of the time.

Jose Abreu’s Continued Struggles

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No hitter has had a worse start to the season than José Abreu. The veteran first baseman has only picked up four hits in 65 plate appearances. He’s hitting .068/.138/.085 with one extra-base knock, a double. Among hitters with 50+ trips to the dish, none has made less of an impact from a power perspective. Only Victor Scott II — a glove-first rookie whom the Cardinals optioned over the weekend — has as poor an on-base mark.

While St. Louis had the luxury of sending Scott to Triple-A, the Astros can’t do the same with Abreu. He’d need to agree to any kind of minor league assignment. They’re not going to find a trade partner. In all likelihood, the only way for Houston to take him off the MLB roster is to release him and eat the remaining money on his $58.5MM free agent deal. Considering Abreu is making $19.5MM both this season and next, it’s not especially surprising that Houston isn’t ready to move on entirely.

At the same time, they have to at least consider the possibility of making a change at first base. The Astros have already kicked Abreu to the bottom third of the batting order after he started the year in the #5 hole. He has gotten the start in 16 of Houston’s 23 games, with Jon Singleton getting the nod at first base for the other seven appearances.

If Singleton were hitting well, perhaps Abreu would be in danger of losing his starting job. Yet the lefty-hitting Singleton is off to a lackluster .229/.308/.286 line in his own right. It comes as no surprise that Houston’s first basemen have been the sport’s least productive through three weeks. No team has gotten less than their .110/.187/.146 showing over 91 plate appearances.

While Singleton isn’t exactly forcing his way into the lineup, the Astros could consider alternatives in the minors. Offseason trade acquisition Trey Cabbage is on the 40-man roster but has been on optional assignment to Triple-A Sugar Land all season. He’s hitting .262/.407/.492 over his first 18 games. Former seventh-round pick Joey Loperfido has raked at a .260/.359/.688 clip over 19 contests for the Space Cowboys. The Duke product is tied with Heston Kjerstad for the Triple-A lead with 10 home runs. Loperfido is not on the 40-man but will need to be added at some point this year if Houston wants to keep him out of next offseason’s Rule 5 draft.

Neither Cabbage nor Loperfido is certain or even necessarily likely to produce against big league pitching. Cabbage appeared in 22 games for the Angels last season and struck out in nearly half his plate appearances. He’s going down on strikes a third of the time this year in Triple-A. Loperfido has had a similarly high swing-and-miss rate, fanning at a 33.7% clip this year after running a 32.6% strikeout percentage in his first look at Triple-A pitching last summer. He’s soon to turn 25 and has yet to make his major league debut.

Even if the Astros aren’t sold on Loperfido or Cabbage making enough contact to produce at the MLB level, they’ll obviously need to see more from Abreu to continue running him out there. General manager Dana Brown acknowledged as much last week. The GM told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle on Friday that while the Astros would continue to give Abreu playing time in hopes that he finds his stride, they’d “have to circle back and make some decisions” if the former MVP doesn’t start hitting. That preceded an 0-8 showing from Abreu in the first two games of their weekend series against the Nationals. Singleton got the nod in yesterday’s series finale and went 0-3.

A player starting the year slowly can easily be overemphasized. A terrible three-week stretch to begin the season is more visible than a similar run in the middle of the summer might be. Teams are understandably wary about overreacting to a small sample in April, as Brown noted. Abreu’s struggles are magnified, though, because he’s already coming off a disappointing first year.

In 594 plate appearances a year ago, he hit .237/.296/.383 with 18 home runs. Of the 25 first basemen who took at least 500 plate appearances, Abreu was last in OBP and 22nd in slugging. Including this year’s start brings his overall line as an Astro to .220/.281/.354. That’d be subpar production for virtually any regular on a team with postseason aspirations. It’s particularly poor for a 37-year-old first baseman whose main source of value is supposed to be his bat.

To his credit, Abreu found his form to some extent late last season. He carried a .237/.296/.350 mark into September before connecting on seven homers with a .237/.299/.536 line in the regular season’s final month. He built off that in October, mashing at a .295/.354/.591 clip with another four longballs in 11 playoff contests. Abreu has also traditionally been a slow starter, even if this month’s struggles are at another level. For his career, he owns a roughly league average .241/.309/.421 line in March and April; he has posted well above-average offensive numbers in every other month.

That perhaps offers some level of optimism that Abreu will be able to turn things around. Still, despite a strong Spring Training performance, he hasn’t smoothly carried his late-2023 rebound into this season. How much more leeway the front office and manager Joe Espada can afford to give him remains to be seen.

Houston’s offense has been solid overall despite the complete lack of production at first base, yet they’re operating with far less margin for error than they have in past seasons. Poor performances from the starting rotation and the back of the bullpen, combined with a lack of timely hits, have led to a dismal 7-16 start. Only the White Sox have been worse in the American League. Urgency is soon going to mount. If the Astros get to a point where they feel a change in playing time is necessary, first base might be the likeliest position to do so.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Place Cristian Javier On 15-Day Injured List

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Right-hander Cristian Javier has been scratched from his scheduled start against the Nationals this afternoon and will be placed on the injured list, Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Right-hander Hunter Brown will take the ball against the Nationals today in Javier’s stead, while righty Spencer Arrighetti is being recalled to replace Javier on the club’s active roster.

Javier has been a rare bright spot in what has been a brutal start to the 2024 campaign for the 7-15 Astros. None of that can be pinned on the 27-year-old righty, however, as Javier has dominated to the tune of a 1.54 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in 23 1/3 innings of work across four starts so far this season. Unfortunately, he’ll now take a seat for at least 15 days, though Espada indicated (as relayed by Kawahara) that the goal of Javier’s placement on the injured list was simply to “give him time” to recover, suggesting a fairly short absence could be on the table.

Even if Javier’s trip to the injured list is a fairly short one, it’s still tough news for the Astros. The club just returned veteran ace Justin Verlander from the injured list last week, and now Javier will join Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers Jr. on the shelf for the time being. Of that group, only Valdez appears to be nearing a return. The lefty was placed on the injured list earlier this month due to elbow soreness but avoided a more serious injury, with Kawahara relaying that Espada even left the door open to Valdez returning to the club’s rotation sometime this week to pitch alongside Verlander and J.P. France against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

If Valdez can return in the coming days, it should be a fairly seamless transition into the rotation with off-days on Monday and Friday allowing the club additional flexibility if necessary. The southpaw made just two starts prior to going on the injured list at the beginning of the month but looked good in both of them, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 3.55 FIP and 10 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings of work.

Should Valdez need a bit longer before he’s ready to be activated, the Astros figure to turn to Arrighetti to make a start at some point. The 24-year-old rookie made his MLB debut earlier this season and struggled badly in two starts, allowing nine runs on 11 hits and five walks in just seven innings of work, though he did manage to notch eight strikeouts. If Arrighetti doesn’t end up being needed to make a start in the coming days, the Astros could instead look to use him to bolster a bullpen that has posted a worrisome 5.29 ERA to this point in the 2024 season, better than only the Rays among AL clubs.

AL West Notes: Abreu, Scherzer, Rendon

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The Astros have struggled badly to open the year as they currently sit dead last in the AL West with a 7-15 record, four games back of Seattle and Texas for the division lead. Club GM Dana Brown recently spoke to Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle regarding the club’s deep early season struggles, including commenting on the status of veteran first baseman Jose Abreu.

Abreu, 37, has hit an anemic .073/.148/.091 with a 27.9% strikeout rate and just one extra-base hit in his first 61 trips to the plate this season. While that’s a fairly small sample size, it comes on the heels of a 2023 campaign where he posted a disappointing 86 wRC+ in 141 games. Given the veteran slugger’s lack of success in an Astros uniform, Brown left the door open to the club making some changes regarding his playing time should he continue to struggle. While Brown emphasized that the club will continue to focus on getting Abreu playing time to “see if he can get hot” in the coming days, he also acknowledged that they’ll have to “circle back and make some decisions” if the veteran doesn’t show signs of improvement.

It’s an understandable stance for the club to take, though Abreu is only in the second year of his three-year, $58.5MM pact with the club. The most obvious option for the club at first base should they look to move away from Abreu is Jon Singleton, though the 32-year-old has hardly lit the world on fire himself with a .250/.333/.313 slash line in 13 games this year. Trey Cabbage and Grae Kessinger are among the other plausible options available to the club at first base currently on the 40-man roster.

More from around the AL West…

  • Reporting earlier this week indicated that Rangers ace Max Scherzer is ahead of schedule as he rehabs from surgery to repair a herniated disc he underwent over the offseason, and that he was scheduled to throw 40 pitches to live hitters yesterday. According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, that 40-pitch session went off without a hitch and Scherzer had no issues recovering today, meaning the 39-year-old veteran is now on schedule to begin a rehab assignment on Wednesday. The news is a huge shot in the arm for the club’s rotation, which has scuffled somewhat early in the season with a 4.46 FIP entering play today that placed the club ahead of only the White Sox, Rockies, and Cardinals among all major league clubs. Scherzer, who posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.40 FIP in eight starts with Texas last year, would give the club the flexibility to move an arm such as Michael Lorenzen or even Andrew Heaney to the bullpen upon his return.
  • Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon exited this evening’s game against the Reds with a right hamstring injury, as relayed by MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Rendon sustained the injury while running out an infield single in the top of the first inning. Following the game, Rendon spoke to reporters (including Bollinger) about the injury, noting that his hamstring is feeling “not too great” in the aftermath of the game and that he was feeling some frustration about the constant injuries. Rendon, 34 in June, was once a star infielder for the Nationals and earned a seven-year deal with the Angels in free agency prior to the 2020 campaign. Unfortunately, his career has been completely derailed by injuries in recent years, with just 166 appearances and a 95 wRC+ since the start of the 2021 season. Should the injury result in another trip to the shelf for Rendon, it would be a major blow to the Angels. While the veteran infielder started the season in a 0-for-19 slump, since then he’s started to heat up with a .346/.403/.400 slash line in his last 13 games. In the event Rendon requires a trip to the injured list, the club could rely on Brandon Drury to cover third base in Rendon’s absence, with the club’s bench options, such as Aaron Hicks, Miguel Sano, and Jo Adell, handling DH.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings, Ohtani’s Stolen Money And The A’s Moving To Sacramento

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • How can a pitcher blow a save in the seventh inning? How early can a save be blown? (38:25)
  • Do you think the Tigers will release Javier Báez? It is painful to watch him. (41:15)
  • Who could the Braves target inside or outside the organization to replace Spencer Strider? (45:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Astros To Activate Justin Verlander On Friday

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The Astros will reinstate Justin Verlander from the injured list prior to Friday’s game against the Nationals, manager Joe Espada announced to the Astros beat this morning (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Verlander will start Friday’s game in what’ll be his season debut. The three-time Cy Young winner opened the season on the 15-day injured list after he was slowed by shoulder fatigue early in spring training.

Verlander’s return is a boon for an Astros rotation that has been hammered by injuries, even beyond the expected absence of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia Jr., both of whom are still on the mend from surgeries that ended their 2023 seasons. Houston saw Verlander slowed by shoulder troubles early in spring, lost Jose Urquidy to a forearm strain and recently placed Framber Valdez on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation.

The Astros have already cycled through multiple depth starters, including rookies Blair Henley and Spencer Arrighetti. Even with an unexpectedly dominant start to the year for Ronel Blanco — previously the team’s sixth starter but now a vital member of the staff who’s already thrown a no-hitter in 2024 — Houston starters have the fifth-worst ERA in Major League Baseball at 5.13. The quartet of Henley, Arrighetti, J.P. France and Hunter Brown have combined to yield a staggering 44 runs in just 36 1/3 innings of work.

At 41 years old, it’s fair to wonder how long Verlander has left as a high-end starter. But he looked the part in 2023 when he tossed 162 innings of 3.22 ERA ball, fanned 21.5% of his opponents against a 6.7% walk rate, and maintained a solid 94.4 mph average on his heater. He’s been tagged for an ugly 11 earned runs over seven innings in two minor league rehab appearances, but he’s also fanned nine of 39 opponents in that time (23.1%) and issued just two walks (5.1%).

Verlander’s return should at least prevent the ’Stros from needing to give any more starts to any of the team’s rookies for the time being. He’ll step into the rotation alongside Cristian Javier, Blanco, France and Brown. Houston will hope for better results from sophomores France and Brown, both of whom were solid rotation pieces in their 2023 rookie showings. (Though France wilted in rather glaring fashion down the stretch last year.) Brown, in particular, was one of the game’s top pitching prospects prior to last year’s debut. He’s had an awful start to the season, headlined by a nine-run shellacking at the hands of the Royals, but he held a powerhouse Braves lineup to two runs over six innings in a rebound effort last night.

Turning back to Verlander specifically, the timing of his return bears particular importance. His two-year, $86.666MM contract contains a vesting $35MM player option for a third season. If he’s able to throw 140 innings in 2024, he’ll have the right to exercise that player option and lock himself in at $35MM next year — provided he finishes the season without an arm injury that would prevent him from pitching in 2025. If his shoulder causes further problems and sends him back to the injured list, the conditions of that player option will become far more pertinent. As it stands, the future Hall of Famer should have ample time to reach the requisite 140 frames.

Astros Outright Wander Suero

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Astros right-hander Wander Suero went unclaimed on outright waivers following his recent DFA and has been assigned to Houston’s Triple-A affiliate, per the Astros’ transaction log at MLB.com. He’ll have the right to reject that assignment in favor of free agency, both by virtue of his big league service time (more than three years) and by the fact that he’s previously been outrighted in his career.

The 32-year-old Suero appeared in just one game and faced only one hitter with the Astros prior to his DFA. The veteran righty inked a minor league deal with Houston over the winter, was summoned to the big leagues to add a fresh arm to a beleaguered bullpen, and wound up surrendering a walkoff single to Salvador Perez in his lone outing as an Astro. It’s possible he’ll stick around as a depth option.

Suero had made five appearances with Triple-A Sugar Land before being called up. He tossed five innings of two-run ball, punching out five hitters without issuing a walk. That’s a solid start to building off what was a strong performance at the Triple-A level last season. Suero pitched 47 times for the Dodgers’ top affiliate in 2023, turning in a 3.26 ERA with an above-average 25.9% strikeout rate in the Pacific Coast League.

That earned him a few scattered looks at Dodger Stadium, although the vast majority of his big league time has come with Washington. Suero pitched for the Nationals from 2018-21, including 78 appearances for the World Series team in 2019. Suero posted a sub-4.00 ERA in two of his first three seasons but stumbled to a 6.33 mark in 42 2/3 frames in 2021. That kicked off a nomadic phase of his career that has bounced him between the Angels, Dodgers and Astros systems.

Astros Promote Forrest Whitley

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2:28pm: The Astros made it official, announcing Whitley’s recall with Spencer Arrighetti optioned in a corresponding move. Arrighetti’s rotation spot will likely be taken by Justin Verlander, who is expecting to be activated off the injured list shortly.

12:31pm: The Astros are recalling former top prospect Forrest Whitley for his first MLB promotion, reports Michael Schwab of the Juice Box Journal (X link). He’s already on the 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to make a corresponding active roster transaction.

Whitley, now 26, took a circuitous route to the majors. He was a first-round pick in 2016 out of a San Antonio high school. The 6’7″ righty dominated for his first year and a half, pitching his way to Double-A as a teenager. By 2018, he looked the part of a potential ace and the top pitching prospect in the sport.

Things haven’t played out the way Whitley or the Astros envisioned from that point. He was hit with a 50-game suspension for violating the minor league drug policy going into the ’18 season. Whitley battled shoulder issues the following year and lost his feel for the strike zone. The canceled 2020 campaign cost him another year of reps, although Houston nevertheless made the easy call to select him onto the 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Whitley has held that spot ever since, although it didn’t always seem as if that were a guarantee. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and posted subpar results when he returned. His control issues resurfaced as he pitched to a 6.53 ERA in the upper minors in 2022. He got off to another rough start last season before sustaining a lat strain that ended his year in May. The Astros were granted a fourth minor league option as a result of Whitley’s injury history.

The front office decided to keep him on the 40-man roster throughout last offseason. They moved him to the bullpen this year upon optioning him to Triple-A Sugar Land. Whitley hasn’t gotten off to a great start, allowing four runs on a trio of homers in three innings, but he’s a fresh arm for a bullpen that has been tasked with 71 innings through the season’s first three weeks. Only the Dodgers and Padres — who leaned heavily on their relief groups during their abbreviated series in Seoul a week before every other team’s Opening Day — have used their bullpens more heavily than Houston has.

While Whitley’s promotion isn’t going to be met with the same level of fanfare as it would have a few years ago, it’s surely rewarding for the righty all the same. It’s the culmination of a nearly eight-year climb through the minors that has been littered with injury setbacks. It could prove to be a fairly brief call — Houston may need to continue cycling through middle relievers until their rotation finds any kind of groove — but he could get the chance to make his debut.

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