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J.P. France Facing Notable Absence Due To Shoulder Injury

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Astros right-hander J.P. France is dealing with a shoulder injury and is going to be out “a while,” per reporting from Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome adds in a post on X that manager Joe Espada told SportsTalk 790 that France has been shut down with “right shoulder soreness” and will be sent for more testing. The righty dealt with a shoulder issue during Spring Training but got over it in time to make the Opening Day roster, making five starts before being optioned to Triple-A at the end of April.

An injury to a starter on optional assignment wouldn’t always be a big deal, but there are a few reasons why it would be concerning for the Astros right now. The club is out to a rough 12-22 start, making it feel like their season is in peril. Houston has a very strong track record in the recent past and it’s still early here in 2024, but they will need a run of victories at some point to gain ground in the playoff race.

On top of that, the next part of their schedule is going to be tough. Today marks the start of a period where they play 29 games in 30 days, a challenging enough stretch that the club is likely to go with a six-man rotation.

The starting staff has been a juggling act all year. They knew coming into the season that Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia would be missing significant time as each underwent elbow surgery last year. On top of that, each of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy have spent time on the injured list.

Verlander and Valdez have since returned and are currently active. The other three rotation spots are currently held by Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Blanco has pitched very well, even throwing a no-hitter against the Blue Jays last month, but Brown and Arrighetti have faced significant struggles. Brown has an 8.89 earned run average through his seven starts while Arrighetti has a mark of 8.27 through his four outings.

Javier is expected to be activated from the IL at some point in the near future, perhaps as soon as this weekend, to give the club six starters. France could have perhaps been an option to replace Brown or Arrighetti but this injury could force the Astros to stick with those two.

Urquidy is nearing a rehab assignment but would likely need at least a few weeks to build up since he’s missed the entire season so far. Pitchers like Brandon Bielak and Shawn Dubin have some starting experience but are currently in the big league bullpen and not stretched out. Blair Henley is on the 40-man but his one major league start was disastrous, allowing five earned runs while recording just one out, while his Triple-A numbers aren’t great either.

One surprising name that could be entering the mix is A.J. Blubaugh, as Rome reports that the right-hander has “opened eyes” after his recent promotion to Triple-A. A seventh-round pick from the 2022 draft, Blubaugh has recently made five Triple-A starts with a 4.43 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He’s not currently on the 40-man roster.

How the club decides to tackle their rotation challenges will be an interesting situation to monitor over the next month as they navigate this tricky patch of their schedule. For France personally, it would be quite unfortunate timing for him if the injury turns out to be significant, beyond the obvious frustrations. Since he was optioned to the minors a few weeks ago, he’s not currently accruing major league pay or service time.

France came into 2024 with 149 days of service time, just 23 shy of the 172 required for a full year. He spent 28 days on the active roster to start this season before getting optioned, meaning he barely eclipsed that one-year line. But if he were to languish in the minors while injured for a while, it would hurt his chances of reaching arbitration and free agency in the future. If he is set to miss significant time and the Astros want to use his 40-man roster spot, they could recall him and place him on the major league 60-day injured list, which would start his service clock running again.

Will Justin Verlander Be Traded This Summer?

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With the Astros out to a rough start here in 2024, speculation has been mounting that they may have to consider a deadline selloff this summer. Righty Justin Verlander is in the final guaranteed season of his contract and would be a logical candidate for a trade, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today throws some cold water on the possibility.

Verlander has a full no-trade clause, which he waived last summer in order to go from the Mets to the Astros. Nightengale reports that the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were all heavily involved for the veteran righty, but that he would only waive his no-trade to return to Houston since he loves playing there. Nightengale infers from this that Verlander isn’t likely to waive his no-trade again in order to be sent packing from Houston.

Despite Verlander’s love of being an Astro, it’s possible he will have to weigh that against his desire to compete. He cited a desire to win as his reason for signing with the Mets, though that plan didn’t work out and he eventually returned to Houston in his pursuit of another ring. The Astros are 12-22 at the moment and face a steep climb back into contention. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs have dropped to 39.9%, after being at 86.2% at the start of the season. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more optimistic, however, still giving them a 64.1% chance.

If the club can’t get back into the mix by July, perhaps Verlander would warm to the idea of moving to another contender, especially since he’s now 41 years old and is surely aware that he may only have so many chances left. He has a 2.08 earned run average so far this year and should receive plenty of interest. As Bob mentioned, teams like the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were trying to get him last summer, and previous reporting also had clubs like the Giants, Atlanta, Padres and Orioles on the phone.

Verlander may not be a pure rental since he has a conditional player option for 2025. As part of the two-year deal he signed with the Mets going into 2023, if he throws 140 innings in 2024, he has a $35MM player option for 2025.

Verlander started the season on the injured list, which slightly lowered his chances of getting to 140 innings, but he still has plenty of time to get there. He didn’t make his debut this year until April 19 and has only logged 17 1/3 innings over three starts so far. But he also started last year on the IL, not debuting until early May, then stayed healthy the rest of the way and got to 162 1/3 innings. Another injury absence could tighten things, but he currently has plenty of room to get to 140 as things stand.

Player options often make clubs reluctant to acquire such players at the deadline because of the varying outcomes. If the player finishes the season strong, he will leave after being on the club for just a couple of months. If he performs poorly or gets injured, the team will be stuck with him for another year. But it’s worth pointing out that the extreme downside of a really significant injury won’t be present. Per Baseball Prospectus, the option also has a condition that “an independent physical exam determines Verlander does not have a right arm injury which would prevent him from being on the active roster for Opening Day 2025.”

That clause would protect clubs against the nightmare scenario where they trade for Verlander, he crosses the 140-inning mark but then requires Tommy John surgery or some other significant procedure. In that situation, Verlander would not have the right to exercise his player option. There’s still the chance of Verlander simply struggling due to his advancing age and triggering the player option, but there’s some downside protection there as well. As part of last year’s trade, the Mets agreed to cover half the option if it vests.

Verlander is making $43.33MM this year but the Mets are covering $31.3MM of that, as reported by Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press at the time of last year’s trade. That means the Astros are only on the hook for about $12MM this year, which will be down closer to $4MM by the time the deadline rolls around.

Despite his age, Verlander has continued to pitch extremely well and could be highly sought after this summer. His peripherals don’t really support his 2.08 ERA so far this year, since he has struck out just 19.1% of opponents while giving out walks at a 10.3% clip. He’s had help keeping runs off the board so far from a .239 batting average on balls in play and 93% strand rate. But it’s also a small sample size of three outings after being on the IL.

Last year wasn’t quite as dominant as his Cy Young-winning season in 2022, but he still put up a 3.22 ERA over his 27 starts. His 21.5% strikeout rate wasn’t strong but he also limited walks to a 6.7% clip.

Ultimately, there are a lot of factors that will determine whether Verlander is traded or not. The performance of the club will obviously be one of them, as Verlander would naturally be off the table if they get back into the playoff mix. If they stay out, Verlander’s feelings towards Houston might have him leaning against approving a trade, but he may prefer competing elsewhere if it’s a lost season for the Astros. It’s also unknown if the club would prefer to eat what they owe to Verlander to improve the prospect return, versus getting some other club to take on the money as a way of reducing their competitive balance tax calculation. Verlander staying healthy and pitching well will also be important, of course, especially with the player option up in the air.

There’s also the club’s long-term plans to consider. Max Scherzer wasn’t planning to leave the Mets last year until he found out the club was planning a sort of bridge year in 2024, which prompted him to approve a deal to the Rangers. If the Astros stay out of contention through the summer, they will have some tough decisions to make. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent and would be a logical trade candidate. Players like Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy are slated for free agency after 2025, meaning they could be kept for another chance at competing next year or could be made available this summer as part of a larger reset. If that latter possibility opens up, it seems fair to assume that Verlander’s desire to stay in Houston would diminish, for the rest of this year and 2025.

What do you think is most likely for Verlander in the months to come? Have your say in the poll below!

Latest On McCormick, McCullers

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  • Astros outfielder Chas McCormick has only been on the injured list for a few days, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that he is already making good progress in his rehab from a right hamstring issue. Per Espada, McCormick has begun running and is nearing the point where he’ll be able to begin batting practice, adding that the club hopes to get the 29-year-old out for a minor league rehab assignment “pretty soon.” McCormick scuffled at the plate to open the season this year but was one of the club’s strongest contributors in 2023, when he slashed .273/.353/.489 in 115 games.
  • Sticking with the Astros, Espada also provided an update to reporters (including McTaggart) about injured right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers last pitched in the majors in late 2022 but has now progressed to throwing off a mound in his rehab process. It’s a major step for McCullers, who has made just eight starts since the end of the 2021 postseason due to flexor tendon issues. When healthy enough to take the mound, McCullers has been an impact starter for the Astros with a 2.96 ERA and 3.51 FIP in 36 starts from 2021-22. The right-hander isn’t expecting to return to action until later this summer, though yesterday’s news appears to indicate he remains on track to pitch for the club this season.

Blue Jays Acquire Joel Kuhnel

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Joel Kuhnel from the Astros in exchange for cash considerations, per an announcement from both teams. Toronto optioned Kuhnel to Triple-A Buffalo following his addition. The Blue Jays had an open space on their 40-man roster for Kuhnel, who was designated for assignment earlier this week, and do not need to make a corresponding move to add him to the roster.

Kuhnel, 29, has now changed teams via cash deal for the second time in as many seasons. An eleventh-round pick by the Reds in the 2016 draft, Kuhnel made his debut with the Reds back in 2019 and pitched to a decent 4.66 ERA (103 ERA+) with a 4.25 FIP in 9 2/3 innings of work. Despite that solid cup of coffee at the big league level, the right-hander wouldn’t get regular playing time in the majors until the 2022 season, when he posted a brutal 6.36 ERA despite a much stronger 3.96 FIP. He remained with the Reds until he was traded to Houston in June of last year but has not received much run in the big leagues since, with a 7.20 ERA and 5.84 FIP in 15 innings of work across the past two seasons, including a spot start with the Astros earlier this year that saw him allow four runs in two innings of work.

Overall, Kuhnel heads to Toronto with a career 6.30 ERA that’s nearly 30% worse than league average but a much more manageable 4.53 FIP along with decent strikeout and walk rates of 19% and 6.3% respectively suggest he could still be a valuable depth piece for the club’s bullpen. That possibility is further backed up by solid results at the Triple-A level with the Astros this year, as he’s posted a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings as a multi-inning relief arm in the highly inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League this year.

The Blue Jays have struggled to a 16-18 record this season in part thanks to brutal production from their bullpen, which has a league-worst 5.28 FIP to go with a 5.11 ERA that sits in the bottom five among all major league relief corps. Kuhnel is unlikely to impact the back of the club’s bullpen alongside the likes of Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia, but it’s at least feasible to imagine him offering an alternative to a struggling arm such as Genesis Cabrera.

Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation

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Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

MLBTR Podcast Mailbag: José Abreu Demoted, The Positional Surplus Myth, Erick Fedde’s Trade Value And More

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • José Abreu agreeing to be optioned by the Astros (2:50)
  • Upcoming knee surgery for Mike Trout of the Angels (5:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Given that a surplus can quickly disappear with injuries, will teams be more reluctant to trade from positions of relative strength? (6:50)
  • When will Jackson Jobe of the Tigers or Junior Caminero of the Rays be called up? (14:30)
  • Is it true that the White Sox can’t pick higher than tenth in next year’s draft? (18:20)
  • What is the current state of Tommy John surgery and longevity of pitchers after going under the knife? (22:00)
  • When can a team trade a recently-signed free agent? (28:50)
  • If Erick Fedde keeps pitching well, what kind of return could the White Sox get for him at the deadline? (30:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Astros Notes: McCormick, Javier, Urquidy, Hader

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The Astros placed Chas McCormick on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 28, before tonight’s matchup with the Guardians. The outfielder is dealing with right hamstring discomfort. Infielder Jacob Amaya was recalled in his place, while the Astros also brought up Trey Cabbage (a move first reported by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2) to take the spot vacated when they optioned José Abreu last night.

McCormick had a tough first month of the season. The typically steady left fielder is out to a .236/.325/.278 slash through 83 plate appearances. He still has yet to hit a home run after connecting on a career-high 22 longballs a season ago. McCormick had been an above-average hitter in each of his first three campaigns. Last year’s .273/.353/.489 line was the best work of his career.

His effort to get on track will be put on pause by the hamstring issue, although there’s nothing to suggest he’s facing a long-term absence. Joey Loperfido has gotten the nod in left field for the past two nights. The rookie could be in line for regular playing time on the grass after hitting 13 homers in 25 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido could also pick up first base reps as the Astros rotate through options to replace Abreu. Jon Singleton has gotten the nod at that position in each of the last two games.

McCormick and utility infielder Grae Kessinger are Houston’s only position players on the IL. They haven’t been nearly as fortunate on the pitching side. Most of their rotation has spent time on the injured list at some point. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are still a ways away in their rehabs from arm surgeries, while José Urquidy and Cristian Javier are on the 15-day IL.

Houston released encouraging updates on the latter two right-handers this afternoon. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that the Astros might reinstate Javier to start Sunday’s matchup with the Mariners. Javier has been out since April 18 with neck discomfort, so he could make it back not long after the 15-day minimum if things go well in the next few days.

Urquidy has been battling a longer-term ailment. He reported elbow pain in Spring Training and was eventually diagnosed with a forearm strain. Urquidy has been on the IL for the entire season but could be nearing a rehab stint. Espada indicated that the 29-year-old threw 30 pitches in a live batting practice session today (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). If Urquidy gets through one more session without issue, he could report to a minor league affiliate to build into game shape.

In a rare Astros pitching development not related to injury, Espada tabbed star closer Josh Hader for a two-inning stint in yesterday’s extra-inning win over the Guards. The Astros called on Hader to keep the game tied in the top of the ninth. When both teams failed to score, they sent him back out for the tenth. He allowed the automatic runner to score but got credited for the win when Victor Caratini popped a two-out walk-off homer in the bottom half.

That was not just Hader’s first multi-inning appearance of the season. It was the first time he’d worked more than one inning in a regular season game since 2020; he hadn’t completed two full innings since 2019 when he was a member of the Brewers. As he became more established, Hader had been vocal about not wanting to work more than one inning.

The five-time All-Star indicated that’s no longer the case now that he has secured a five-year, $95MM free agent contract. Hader told the Houston beat that his expectation for 2024 is “to be available for multiple innings” (link via The Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara). The southpaw contrasted that to the past few seasons when he was going through the arbitration system and didn’t have long-term financial security. Those comments may not sit well with the Milwaukee or San Diego fanbases, but it’s a nice boost for the Astros.

Hader has had some uncharacteristic struggles in his first month in Houston. He has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) through his first 12 2/3 innings. Hader has recorded 21 strikeouts behind a huge 16% swinging strike rate, though, so he should find more consistency as the season goes along. The back of the bullpen has been a surprising disappointment thus far. Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly have also scuffled, contributing to Houston’s 10-19 start.

Astros To Option José Abreu

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First baseman José Abreu is not with the Astros right now and will be optioned tomorrow to West Palm Beach. As a veteran with over five years of major league service time, Abreu cannot be optioned without his consent but agreed to be sent down in an attempt to overcome his struggles. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the news on X.

Abreu, now 37, signed a three-year deal with a $58.5MM guarantee with the Astros going into 2023. Houston was undoubtedly hoping for Abreu to continue performing like he did with the White Sox. He hit 243 home runs for that club from 2014 to 2022, slashing .292/.354/.506 in the process.

But things have not been going well since he joined the Astros. He was hitting .211/.276/.260 through May last year, before bouncing back with a solid showing of .277/.322/.466 in June and July. He was brutal again in August, hitting .188/.278/.271, before mounting a solid finish by slashing .237/.299/.536 in September and October. That up-and-down season finished with a line of .237/.296/.383, which translated to a wRC+ of 86, but he provided a bit more optimism by slashing .295/.354/.591 in the postseason.

Unfortunately, things have gone from bad to worse here in 2024, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at last week. Abreu has just seven hits so far this season, with his one double the only extra-base knock of the bunch. He currently has a line of .099/.156/.113 on the year. His -21 wRC+ is the worst in the majors among players with at least 70 plate appearances.

His .130 batting average on balls in play is surely due for some regression, but Abreu isn’t hitting the ball with much authority either. He has yet to barrel a ball this season, per Statcast’s definition, while his exit velocity and hard hit rate are way down relative to his previous work.

As mentioned, veteran players cannot be optioned without their consent but Abreu has agreed to go down to the minors. General manager Dana Brown told reporters that both sides decided Abreu should go down to the farm “to get some at-bats and his timing back right,” per Rome, linked up top. “He unselfishly was on board and agreement with going back to West Palm Beach,” Brown said.

Obviously, it would be great for everyone involved if this plan were successful in getting him back on track. The Astros are off to their worst start in years, currently 9-19 and in last place in the American League West. Abreu’s struggles have obviously been a part of that but he could also be part of the solution if he were able to turn things around.

For now, it’s not totally clear what the plan will be at first base. Joey Loperfido was just added to the roster today but he will be playing outfield for now, Brown said, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros have Jon Singleton available to play first base but he’s not having a great year either, currently slashing .238/.319/.286.

Trey Cabbage could perhaps be an option, as he’s on the 40-man roster. He was just up with the club as their 27th man for the Mexico City Series but was sent back down after. Position players normally have to wait ten days after being optioned to be recalled again, but a “27th man” situation doesn’t count as being optioned.

Cabbage generally provides pop and can take a walk, but also racks up his share of strikeouts. He’s been hitting .271/.440/.486 in Triple-A this year, walking 23.1% of the time but striking out at a 31.9% clip. He also provides some wheels, having stolen seven bags on the year so far.

The Astros won’t officially option Abreu until tomorrow, so they will play a man short tonight and the corresponding move will be clear at that time.

Astros Designate Joel Kuhnel For Assignment

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The Astros announced to reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Joey Loperfido has been officially added to the roster. His imminent promotion was reported over the weekend. In corresponding moves, the club placed infielder Grae Kessinger on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort and designated right-hander Joel Kuhnel for assignment.

Kuhnel, 29, was acquired from the Reds in a cash deal in June of last year. He was designated for assignment in the offseason and eventually elected free agency, but returned to the Astros on a minor league deal and was selected back to the roster a few weeks ago. He made just one appearance, allowing four earned runs in two innings, before being optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land.

He currently has a 6.30 earned run average in 85 2/3 innings at the major league level. His 19% strikeout rate is below average but his 6.3% walk rate and 52.2% ground ball rate are both quite strong. He’s been in decent form in Triple-A this year, with a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings, despite pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Kuhnel or try to pass him through waivers. He still has an option and could therefore be kept in the minors by any club willing to give him a 40-man roster spot. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency as a player with a previous career outright.

Alex Bregman’s Slow Start Could Cost Him Millions

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Both the Astros and Alex Bregman are off to slow starts in 2024. There’s still lots of time left in the season for things to change, both for the club and for the player. But Bregman is set to be one of the top free agents available this winter and his slow start could have a significant impact on his earning power.

Bregman, 30, has appeared in 25 games this year and taken 108 trips to the plate. He remains tough to strike out, as his 12% clip is a match for last year’s rate and close to his career average. His 9.3% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 8.6% league average but well below Bregman’s previous form, as he drew free passes in 13.8% of his plate appearances from 2018 to 2023.

When he has put the bat on the ball, he hasn’t been able to do damage. Most notably, he has yet to hit a home run this season. He has just 21 hits, with his five doubles being the only knocks of the extra-base variety. His batting line for the year is .216/.287/.268, which translates to a wRC+ of 65, indicating he’s been 35% worse than league average. His .247 batting average on balls in play is below average and below his career rate, but his barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also down relative to his career marks.

As mentioned, there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around, since we’re not even in the month of May yet. Bregman has been here before. The slump is not without precedent. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his .555 OPS this year is the seventh-worst of any 25-game stretch of his career. The six worse stretches all had a winter’s gap, as they each go from the end of 2022 to the start of 2023. That means Bregman is technically in the worst single-season slump of his career, but he also had a .558 OPS across May and June of 2022, not far off from his current woes.

Given that he’s had a tailspin like this before, it seems fair to expect him to pull out of it. However, that doesn’t mean teams won’t use it against him in free agency. As we just saw in the winter, clubs are quite willing to wave any red flags they can get their hands on if it helps their bargaining position.

Cody Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 for the Cubs last year and seemed poised for a huge payday, especially when also factoring in his 20 stolen bases and center field defense. But his mega contract never arrived, perhaps due to health concerns or perhaps due to his Statcast data being on the weak side. He was notoriously poor over 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery, and his 2023 bounceback season still saw him go on the injured list. While the end-of-season results were strong, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile of qualified league hitters while his hard hit rate was in the 10th.

On the other end of the spectrum was Matt Chapman, who had strong Statcast metrics but tepid results. Chapman’s exit velocity and hard hit rate were among the best in the league, finishing in the 98th and 100th percentile, respectively. But he hit .240/.330/.424 on the year overall, 110 wRC+, and in rather uneven fashion. As many pointed out, he hit .384/.465/.687 in April but then .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. That framing ignores the fact that Chapman was still good in July and got hurt in August, which may have made his post-April stats look worse than they were, but it may not have mattered.

When MLBTR previewed the upcoming free agent class, which is linked above, it was mentioned that a seven- or eight-year deal north of $200MM was a possibility for Bregman. Flawed-but-talented players have certainly gone over that line before, with Xander Bogaerts and Anthony Rendon some of the recent examples. The expectation of the industry was that players like Bellinger and Chapman could get nine-figure deals despite their own issues, but that’s not how it played out. Each had to settle for a three-year deal with opt-outs, hoping that continued strong performance could lead to a better deal down the road.

Bregman has plenty of attributes that he and his reps can point to. Injuries have not been a major factor for him, as he has played at least 155 games in five of the past six full seasons. His strikeout and walk rates are both consistently better than average, while his third base defense is rated well. The elite offense he showed in 2018 and 2019 might be gone, but he hit .261/.364/.447 over 2022 and 2023 for a 131 wRC+.

But his struggles this year could be used against him, even if they don’t last all year, which could be tricky for Bregman. Back in March of 2019, he signed a $100MM extension with the club which locked in some big money for him but also gave the club two years of extra control. That means that despite debuting in the big leagues at the age of 22, he’ll be going into free agency ahead of his age-31 season.

It seems fair to assume that Bregman and his representatives at the Boras Corporation would prefer to lock in as much money as they can this winter. Boras clients have pivoted to short-term deals when necessary, but Bregman’s age make that undesirable, as it will be harder for him to increase his earning power as he moves deeper into his 30s. He and the Astros have had some on-and-off talks about another extension in recent years, but the fact that nothing has come together yet perhaps suggests that he has been holding out for something big this winter.

The Astros under owner Jim Crane have been averse to lengthy contracts, having never gone longer than six years. Even the six-year extensions they did agree to were for much younger players. Jose Altuve got a six-year deal which started with his age-29 season while Yordan Alvarez got one starting for his age-26 campaign. However, they did just sign another extension with Altuve, a five-year pact that covers his age-35 through age-39 seasons, so it’s not as though going deep into a player’s 30s is completely off the table.

Perhaps Bregman can finish the season strong and the market conditions will eventually work in his favor. This past offseason, it seems like factors such as dwindling TV revenue and the competitive balance tax had negative impacts on free agents. It’s possible to imagine a correction this winter. Perhaps the Mets will be looking to get more aggressive after being relatively quiet. Maybe the new owner of the Orioles looks to make a headline-grabbing deal. Maybe the Red Sox come out swinging after some positive player development in 2024.

But even if those stars do align, those clubs will have other options, such as 26-year-old hitting savant Juan Soto, bona fide ace Corbin Burnes, consistent power threat Pete Alonso or everyday shortstop Willy Adames.

Even the teams looking to make a big splash next winter might not have Bregman atop their list as a 31-year-old third baseman who has been quite good but not necessarily elite in recent years. The longer this slump continues, the more they can use it as a bargaining tactic. Bregman and Boras surely noticed what happened to Bellinger, Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who all had to lower their demands as the recent offseason slouched along. Even Snell’s Cy Young season couldn’t wash away concerns about his previous low points.

One thing that could work in Bregman’s favor is if the Astros keep struggling and he winds up traded at the deadline, which would make him ineligible for a qualifying offer. But Montgomery didn’t have a QO attached to him this past winter and that didn’t seem to matter much. Bregman and the Boras team are undoubtedly aware that there’s a wide range of outcomes for his free agency, making the next few months all the more important.

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