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2011 Contract Issues: Houston Astros

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The Astros have three 2011 options to consider after the season:

  • Lance Berkman has a $15MM club option with a $2MM buyout. Berkman has indicated he might move on if the option is declined; MLBTR's Luke Adams discussed the situation recently.  Berkman had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee on March 13th and recently had it drained for a fifth time.
  • Brett Myers has an $8MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout.  As MLBTR's Mike Axisa noted a month ago, mutual options are baseball's new fad and typically don't serve as actual options.  It's highly likely that one of the sides will want to decline.
  • Geoff Blum also has a mutual option; at $1.65MM it's more plausible the two sides work something out.

The Astros also have Kaz Matsui, Pedro Feliz, Brian Moehler, and Jason Michaels up for free agency after the season.  The four are earning $13.3MM in 2010.

Felipe Paulino is projected to enter his first arbitration year.  Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Keppinger, and Chris Sampson will face arbitration for the second time.  Wandy Rodriguez and Humberto Quintero will go for the third time, Tim Byrdak a fourth.  A few of these players might be non-tendered, though.  On the other hand, the Astros could consider locking up Pence, Bourn, or Rodriguez with big '10 seasons. 

Raises to under-contract players are insignificant, with Roy Oswalt and Brandon Lyon each getting a $1MM bump in 2011.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Offseason Questions For The NL Central

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With the offseason and our team-by-team reviews in the books, we're asking questions of each club.  Let's try the NL Central.

Discussion: Lance Berkman

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The Houston Astros will be faced with a decision regarding Lance Berkman's future at some point this year. The club holds a $15MM 2011 option for Berkman, and will have to figure out whether they want to retain their switch-hitting slugger or pay him a $2MM buyout.

Berkman and teammate Roy Oswalt have represented the faces of the franchise since the days of Bagwell and Biggio, and the Astros have long resisted entering rebuilding mode. After their payroll exceeded $100MM in 2009, the club spent another $30MM on Major League free agent contracts this winter. Declining Berkman's option could indicate a commitment to the rebuilding process, and may be the prudent financial move as well. Last season, the 34-year-old battled injuries and posted career lows in batting average and slugging percentage, hitting .274/.399/.509.

Berkman, for his part, has talked about seeing "what else is out there" if Houston declines his option. If he were to become a free agent next offseason, Berkman would be an interesting case. 2011's first base class is significantly less enticing than 2012's, which could potentially include Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard. Next winter, Berkman's competition in free agency would likely be players such as Derrek Lee, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, and Adam LaRoche. Considering the knee problems Berkman has already experienced this spring, it's plausible that he could follow the career trajectory of someone like Vladimir Guerrero, a still-dangerous hitter whose age and health questions have diminished his value.

A plethora of scenarios could play out before Opening Day 2011. Do you see the Astros declining Berkman's option, or perhaps even trying to trade him this season, should they fall out of contention? If Berkman enjoys a relatively healthy 2010 campaign, what sort of contract might he earn next winter, on the verge of turning 35?

Odds & Ends: Dye, Arguelles, Royals, Astros

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Upset over seeing your Syracuse-topped bracket get ruined tonight?  Cheer up by reading these news items!

Odds & Ends: Stanton, Daigle, Bell, Mariners

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A round-up of some of Wednesday's newsbits….

Heyman On Willis, Dunn, Dukes, Berkman

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Jon Heyman covered a number of topics in his latest piece for SI.com, and here are a few of the hot-stove highlights…

  • While Dontrelle Willis' "$12MM salary is one impetus to take him north," Heyman writes that the left-hander has pitched very well this spring and could earn a spot in Detroit's rotation on his own merit.  Heyman didn't discuss Willis' future with the club, but it would take a huge season for Willis to earn anything close to $12MM in a free-agent contract this winter.  Even if he does have a big rebound year, his first two seasons in Detroit were probably enough to close the door on him remaining a Tiger past 2010.
  • Heyman writes that the Nationals have told Adam Dunn that he won't get a contract extension from them (no matter his offensive numbers) unless he proves that he can play a decent first base.
  • Elijah Dukes' release from Washington is "a shame."  Heyman says "while there was no one incident that triggered his release, the Nationals felt it would improve clubhouse chemistry for him to be gone."
  • Heyman praises the Astros for not giving in to the "public pressure" that Lance Berkman put on the club to pick up his 2011 option.  Houston's decision looks wiser, Heyman says, in the wake of Berkman's recent minor knee surgery that may keep him on the DL for the first few weeks of the season.

The Latest On Mike Lowell

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Although a Mike Lowell trade isn't the sure thing it once seemed, there's still a chance that a deal could be completed, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.

Silverman mentions four teams that are possible landing spots for Lowell: the Astros, Marlins, Rangers, and Twins. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wonders if the White Sox could be added to that list as well. Each of these teams has potential question marks at first base or designated hitter, or just could use another right-handed bat.

Alex Speier of WEEI speculates that the Marlins' willingness to return Jorge Jimenez to the Red Sox could signal that Florida's need for a corner infielder isn't that strong. If the team feels confident enough in either Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison at first base that they'd cut Jimenez, that could mean a diminished interest in Lowell as well.

Lowell will, of course, have display good health before any club thinks about acquiring him. Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston tweets that the Rangers, among other teams, are scouting Lowell today. The 36-year-old is scheduled to play third base for the first time this spring.

Astros Not Interested In Beimel

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7:28pm: FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) passes on this quote from Beimel's agent, Joe Sroba: "Talks with [the] Mets have fallen apart.  Beimel is re-open to consider all clubs and willing to be flexible."

10:31am: Astros GM Ed Wade told MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez that his club is "more than adequately covered" with the relievers they have, so don't expect the Astros to pursue Joe Beimel (Twitter link). New additions Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom lead a bullpen that could include Tim Byrdak, Jeff Fulchino, Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias on Opening Day.

Beimel, 33 next month, has suitors even though the Astros don't need him now. The Mets and Rockies are interested in the lefty, who has yet to hear from the A's. Beimel told Troy Renck of the Denver Post that he is open to signing with the Rockies.

As Tim noted yesterday, Beimel was still effective against lefthanders last year, as his 7.62 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 against them suggest. He walked more righties than he struck out, however.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Astros.

Major League Signings

  • Brandon Lyon, RP: three years, $15MM.
  • Brett Myers, SP: one year, $5.1MM.  Includes $8MM mutual option for 2011 with a $2MM buyout.
  • Pedro Feliz, 3B: one year, $4.5MM.
  • Brian Moehler, P: one year, $3MM.  Mutual option exercised.
  • Geoff Blum, IF: one year, $1.5MM.  Includes $1.65MM mutual option for 2011.
  • Jason Michaels, OF: one year, $800K.
  • Total spend: $29.9MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Early in the offseason, it was suggested by some reporters that the Astros had the payroll flexibility to make only minor moves.  As Jeff Euston wrote for Baseball Prospectus in February, the team did ultimately trim roughly $15MM from their year-end payroll.  GM Ed Wade still is able to pay his offseason acquisitions about $20MM in 2010, since the '09 payroll featured larger commitments to veterans such as Tejada, Valverde, Hawkins, Brocail, Hampton, Erstad, and Backe.

I wrote in October that the Astros could contend in 2010 with the right additions.  Starting with the bullpen, Wade replaced Valverde and Hawkins with Lyon and Lindstrom.  The Astros might not lose much in performance here, and they will pay the new pair $4.125MM less in 2010 than the old tandem will earn.  Plus, the Astros snagged the #19 pick in the draft from the Tigers.  The downside to this bullpen swap: Lyon's contract is quite excessive, the pair comes with increased health risks, and Jimenez might've been useful.

Myers is a wild card as the new #3 starter; the Astros are looking for him to return to his 2006 level of performance (3.91 ERA in 198 innings).  My beef is with the Astros bringing back Moehler at $3MM.  There was no reason to overcommit to him in October.

There was early talk that the Astros would go with rookies Tommy Manzella and Chris Johnson on the left side of their infield in 2010.  Instead Feliz will handle the hot corner as the Astros take a defense-first approach toward the two positions.

For the Astros to contend in 2010, they'll need a huge performance from their rotation.  Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Myers, Bud Norris, and Felipe Paulino are all capable of big things.  They won't get much run support – the lineup is littered with easy outs and is the worst of the eight NL clubs I've projected so far (using CHONE and Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool).

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