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MLBTR Poll: American League West Favorite

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The Astros have won the division title in the American League West in each of the past five full seasons. They also reached the ALCS in each of those years, along with the shortened 2020 campaign. There hoisted the World Series trophy twice in that time, including just a few months ago. However, their rivals have been aggressive in trying to load up to chase them in 2023 and it now seems like four out of the five clubs seem like legitimate contenders.

There’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, meaning there’s still time for some aggressive transactions that will further change the calculus. But much of the heavy lifting of the offseason appears to be done. Most of the top free agents are off the board, with guys like Jurickson Profar, Michael Wacha and Andrew Chafin the top remaining options. Those are fine players that could certainly help a team but they wouldn’t be franchise-altering additions. There’s also the trade market, which could theoretically see Bryan Reynolds on the move. The Rangers are reportedly interested in him, but so are many other teams and the Pirates have continued to hold firm to an asking price that seems to be quite high.

Whether there are significant moves still to come or not, let’s look at where the clubs stand now, starting with the reigning champs.

Houston Astros – 2022 record: 106-56, projected 2023 fWAR: 48.2

There’s not much doubt about the Astros at this point. As mentioned, they’re enjoying an incredible run of success. Going into the winter, they lost some significant players to free agency, the most notable of which was Justin Verlander. The club hasn’t done anything to supplant him thus far, which is a defendable but risky move. The rotation has plenty of solid options without Verlander, with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown on the roster. However, Verlander is the reigning Cy Young winner after tossing 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA last year. Subtracting that kind of performance would have an impact on any club.

On the position player side, they lost Christian Vázquez, Jason Castro, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Aledmys Díaz to free agency. They’ve since re-signed Brantley and added José Abreu. Overall, the team is still going to be good, but is it enough to hold off the others? FanGraphs certainly thinks so, giving them the highest projected wins above replacement on their depth charts, but there are three clubs within striking distance.

Seattle Mariners – 2022 record: 90-72, projected 2023 fWAR: 43.5

The Mariners finally broke through in 2022, earning a Wild Card spot and reaching the postseason for the first time since 2001. That snapped the longest active postseason drought in the majors, a dishonor that now falls to the Tigers and Angels, who each last qualified for the playoffs in 2014.

This offseason, they have been fairly quiet in terms of free agency, with reliever Trevor Gott marking their only signing so far. They have made some notable trades, however, as is their wont. They acquired slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays, sending reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko the other way. They also acquired Kolten Wong from the Brewers, sending Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee. Hernández and Wong will essentially replace two of the club’s most significant free agent departures in Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier.

The Hernández/Wong pairing could certainly act as an upgrade over Haniger/Frazier, but probably not a huge one. If the club is going to catch the Astros, it will likely have to come from gains made by players already on the roster. Having a full season of Luis Castillo, whom they acquired at the deadline last year, will certainly help. Julio Rodríguez had an incredible rookie season at the age of 21 but could perhaps be even better this year. A breakout from struggling young outfielder Jarred Kelenic would be a tremendous boost. Continued development from young pitchers like George Kirby and Matt Brash would also help.

Los Angeles Angels – 2022 record: 73-89, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.4

The Angels have continued to disappoint despite having two of the best players on the planet on their roster. That was the case again in 2022, as Mike Trout was limited by injury to just 119 games but still produced 6.0 fWAR while Shohei Ohtani produced 3.8 fWAR at the plate and 5.6 on the mound. Still, the club fell out of contention in the summer and never really made it back.

Despite years of falling short of expectations, there are reasons to think 2023 could actually be the year they deliver. They didn’t lose any key contributors to free agency, with players like Michael Lorenzen and Matt Duffy marking some of the most notable departures. They’ve also patched some of the holes that have caused their ship to sink in past years, as a lack of adequate depth has continually wasted the star performances at the top of the roster.

Starting pitching has long been a struggle for the club but the rotation seems like it could be in the best shape in years. 2022 saw encouraging developments from Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, all of whom are slated to return to the club this year. The Halos also supplemented that group by signing Tyler Anderson away from the Dodgers. That gives them a solid front five with Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth on hand as depth options. On the position player side, they’ve added Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela. Those aren’t stars, but the Angels already had stars. They needed adequate role players to supplement their stars and seem to have added some solid options.

Texas Rangers – 2022 record: 68-94, projected 2023 fWAR: 41.9

Of the four plausible competitors in the division, the Rangers will need the biggest turnaround, since 2022 was rough. Turning a 68-win team into a contender in one offseason is no easy feat. But they already did most of the heavy lifting on the position player side last winter, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien on mega deals just prior to the lockout.

The big task of this winter would be upgrading the pitching staff and they have completely overhauled it. They re-signed Martín Pérez while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and trading for Jake Odorizzi. Those five, along with incumbents Jon Gray and Dane Dunning, put the club in a much better position going forward. There are injury concerns scattered throughout that crew, but it’s miles beyond the staff they had last year.

Oakland Athletics – 2022 record: 60-102, projected 2023 fWAR: 29.3

Since the lockout ended in March, the A’s have leaned hard into a rebuild. In just the past ten months, they have traded away Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy. They lost 102 games last year and should be lined up for another rebuild/evaluation season. They’ve made marginal adds by signing Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Drew Rucinski and Trevor May, but the expectation of just about everyone is that they will be in the basement yet again this year.

______________________

The Astros will likely go into the season as the favorite, since they are the reigning World Series champs and have made a few solid moves this offseason. But there are plenty of reasons to think it could be an interesting battle all season long. The Mariners, Rangers and Angels have all made interesting moves this winter and are all within 8 WAR of the Astros according to the projections of FanGraphs. Is this the year the Astros get dethroned?

What do you think? Who will be best in the West in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Did The Astros Fix Will Smith?

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Back on Aug. 1, when the Astros and Braves agreed to a swap of veteran pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Will Smith, the move was met with some confusion by Astros fans. Odorizzi hadn’t endeared himself with a rocky start to his tenure in Houston, nor his public gripes about the team’s usage of him (specifically, a quick hook even on effective days), but he’d vastly outperformed Smith to that point in the season.

At the time of the trade, Odorizzi had a 3.60 ERA in 60 innings, and while it was accompanied by a lackluster strikeout rate, that was partially offset by a strong walk rate. Odorizzi wasn’t a star by any means but had been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. Houston, however, had six options ahead of him on the depth chart and felt a need for some left-handed help in the ’pen. Some ’Stros fans took issue with the return of Smith, in particular, though — and understandably so. He’d posted a tepid 4.38 ERA to that point in the season, and the under-the-hood numbers were actually worse. Smith’s 24% strikeout rate was his lowest since moving the to the bullpen, and his 12.3% walk rate was a career-worst. He was averaging 1.70 homers per nine innings pitched, and metrics like FIP (5.22) and xFIP (4.76) didn’t view him favorably.

Part of the swap was surely the similarities in their 2022 contracts. Smith was owed the balance of a $13MM salary and had a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Odorizzi was earning just $5MM but had another $2.5MM of easily attainable incentives, plus a weighty $3.25MM buyout on a 2023 option. More at the heart of the issue, however, it seems the Astros viewed Smith as someone they could revitalize with some tweaks.

That’s indeed how things played out, though the changes were more subtle than glaring. Smith largely scrapped his curveball in Houston, dropping from an 11.9% usage rate to just 3.6%. He threw slightly fewer fastballs (41.8% in Atlanta, 39.1% with Houston) and upped the usage on his slider, throwing it at a career-high 52.1% of the time. With the ’Stros, Smith also dropped both his vertical and horizontal release points, although not dramatically.

There was no major spike in spin rate — the spin on his four-seamer actually dipped slightly following the trade — and Smith didn’t begin throwing harder or unveil a new pitch that changed his fortunes. Rather, the subtle tweaks to his mechanics and a more acute focus on two pitches seemed to turn his fortunes. He located his slider more effectively (pre-trade, post-trade) and, crucially, avoided the heart of the plate far more often with his four-seamer (pre-trade, post-trade). Smith operated far more regularly and more effectively in the top-third of the strike zone — and just above it.

Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike rate jumped from an already-sharp 13.6% in Atlanta to a massive 17.3% with Houston. He was able to spot both pitches more effectively both on the fringes of the zone and within the zone; his first-pitch strike rate spiked from 63.2% with the Braves to 72.2% with the Astros. His walk rate plummeted from 12.3% to 4.4%.

Smith’s time with the Astros proved brief, but in two months with Houston he tossed 22 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 4.4% walk rate. After averaging 1.7 homers per nine frames with Atlanta, he allowed just two in 22 innings with Houston (0.82 HR/9). If anything, Smith was bizarrely unlucky on balls in play as an Astro; he yielded a sky-high .350 average on balls in play. Smith wasn’t on the Astros’ ALDS or ALCS roster — perhaps in part due to a heavily right-handed Yankees lineup — but was added to the World Series roster. He did not, however, pitch in a game. Houston declined his option at season’s end, favoring a $1MM buyout over a $13MM salary next season.

That outcome seemed obvious, but it’s hard to ignore the high note on which Smith ended the regular season. The lefty overwhelming improved his command, missed more bats, issued fewer walks and yielded fewer home runs. He still wasn’t used in many high-leverage spots by the Astros, but that’s in part due to their generally strong bullpen. Over his final 17 outings of the season, Smith pitched to a 2.35 ERA with an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in 15 1/3 innings.

However, because Smith was generally used in lower-leverage spots and because he didn’t pitch in the postseason, his turnaround in Houston flew largely under the radar. On the one hand, it’s arguably a damning reality that he was passed over in leverage situations and omitted from two of the Astros’ three postseason rosters. On the other hand, the results when he did pitch were excellent, and Houston had four other relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA (and five others with a FIP of 3.02 or better). Smith was a luxury but not someone they necessarily needed to acquire to plug into those leverage positions for lack of better options.

As was the case in the Houston bullpen, Smith is again somewhat lost in the shuffle of the offseason’s free-agent class. MLBTR ranked Taylor Rogers as the top lefty in this year’s class, and he indeed secured a three-year deal. Smith was never going to get another contract along those lines, but he’s perhaps closer to the next tier of lefties than one might expect when looking at his season-long numbers. Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore both had better seasons, and Chafin in particular seems like he should command a strong contract after his past couple years of performance. Smith’s end to the season, however, was quite strong, and if his next team gets more of the Houston version than the Atlanta version, he’ll likely be a bargain.

The Astros Still Need To Add Behind The Plate

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The Astros have been connected to various catchers this offseason. They had reported interest in free agents Willson Contreras, Christian Vázquez and Tucker Barnhart and also contacted the A’s to explore a trade of Sean Murphy. However, they missed on all of those targets, as those free agents have since found new teams and Murphy was dealt to the Braves.

Things have been fairly quiet for a while now, as their interest in Barnhart was reported back on December 7 and little mention of their plans behind the plate since. It would stand to reason that they still need to be on the lookout for upgrades, however, as their current catching corps is noticeably weaker than last year.

In 2022, the Astros began the season with Jason Castro as the backup to Martín Maldonado. Castro got into 34 games by the end of June but hit the injured list in early July with knee discomfort. He would later require season-ending surgery and then announced his retirement in December. The Astros acquired Vázquez at the deadline to help them down the stretch, though he reached free agency at season’s end and has since signed with the Twins.

With Castro and Vázquez out of the picture, that leaves Maldonado as the clear top option on the depth chart. He’s now 36 years old, turning 37 in August, and just underwent sports hernia surgery in November. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, but there’s obviously risk with a club’s primary catcher being on the older side. Though Maldonado is well regarded as a game-caller and leader of a pitching staff, he doesn’t rank very well in objective statistical measures. He’s been a below-average hitter in each season of his career apart from the shortened 2020 campaign, leading to an overall batting line of .209/.285/.349. That production has been about 28% below league average, with his wRC+ coming in at 72. However, the Astros seem to be perfectly comfortable living with that tepid offense in order to get Maldonado’s other qualities in the dugout and clubhouse.

In July, there was a one-month period where Castro was out and Vázquez had not yet been acquired. In that window, the club promoted prospect Korey Lee. Going into 2022, Lee was considered the club’s top prospect, with shortstop Jeremy Peña coming in second. That high ranking came on the heels of a strong 2021 that saw Lee go from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A in his age-22 season.

Unfortunately, 2022 didn’t go as smooth for Lee. He got into 12 MLB games in the month of July but hit just .160/.192/.240. That’s a tiny sample and he was still quite young, turning 24 years old that month. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he did hit 25 home runs, but in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His .238/.307/.483 batting line was actually 10% below league average in that environment, with his wRC+ finishing at 90. Perhaps most concerning is that he struck out in 28.5% of his plate appearances, a huge jump from his previous stops in the minors. Baseball America dropped him to #6 on their most recent list of Houston prospects. It’s still possible that he’s the club’s catcher of the future, as he won’t turn 25 until July, but he might still need a bit more time in the minors to continue developing.

The only other catcher on the club’s 40-man roster is Yainer Díaz, who’s 2022 was essentially the inverse of Lee’s. Díaz went from being considered by BA to be the club’s #16 prospect at the beginning of the year to #2 by midseason. With a bat-first reputation, Díaz put that on display last year. Beginning 2022 in Double-A, he hit .316/.367/.504 for a wRC+ of 121 in 57 games and got promoted to Triple-A. At that new level, he hit .294/.342/.587 in 48 games for yet another wRC+ of 121. He was able to make his major league debut late in the year but didn’t hit much in just six games. That offensive production is certainly encouraging, but his defense isn’t as highly rated. He spent some significant time at first base and in the outfield corners in order to get his bat into the lineup last year. It’s arguable that he doesn’t need much more time in the minors from an offensive perspective, but he’s also only played 48 Triple-A games. Since he’s still just 24 and his defense is a work in progress, more time in the minors wouldn’t be a ridiculous proposition either.

The Astros showed last year that they’re not afraid to rely on a young and unproven player on Opening Day. Going into 2022, they replaced Carlos Correa with Jeremy Peña, who had no major league experience yet. That was certainly risky, but it worked out for the club, with Peña having a very good season and eventually winning World Series MVP. However, that kind of rookie breakout isn’t something that can simply be relied upon. As it currently stands, the club has a 36-year-old starter who doesn’t hit much and is coming off surgery, followed by two youngsters who each have tiny bits of MLB experience and arguably still need regular playing time in the minors.

The club is surely aware that it needs to do something, based on their interest in other backstops this winter. But most of the best options are off the board now, which leaves the Astros looking at Gary Sánchez, Roberto Pérez and Jorge Alfaro as some the top names still available. Those players each have their merits but are considered a tier below guys like Contreras, Vázquez or Murphy.

None of those players will likely require more than a one-year deal, so it’s possible that 2023 is sort of a wait-and-see year behind the plate in Houston. Maldonado is also a free agent after the upcoming season, so perhaps the club can ride with him and another veteran for the year, with either Lee or Díaz hopefully taking over and securing the job for 2024. The Astros still have a very strong roster, as they are the defending champions and have added José Abreu to replace Yuli Gurriel in their thunderous lineup. Justin Verlander has departed for the Mets but the rotation should still be in good shape without him. Despite the club’s strengths, their division looks much more challenging than it did a year ago, as the Mariners had a breakout year in 2022 while the Angels and Rangers have each been very active in upgrading their rosters this offseason. For the Astros, the catching corps stands out as the one weak spot on their roster and should still be addressed before they begin their title defense.

Astros Acquire Bligh Madris

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The Astros have acquired first baseman/outfielder Bligh Madris in a trade with the Tigers, per announcements from both clubs. The Tigers, who recently designated Madris for assignment, will receive cash considerations in exchange. Houston’s 40-man roster in now at 39.

Madris, 27 in February, was selected by the Pirates in the ninth round of the 2017 draft. He worked his way up the minor league ladder with a solid eye at the plate, not providing much power but generally posting healthy walk rates without striking out too much. In 2021, he got his first taste of Triple-A, walking in 10.4 percent of his trips to the plate while going down on strikes in just 18.2 percent of them.

In 2022, he continued that good work in the minors and was selected to Pittsburgh’s roster in July. He got into 39 big league games but hit just .177/.244/.265 in that sample. He was designated for assignment in September, getting claimed by the Rays, though the latter club kept him in the minors to finish the year. They then sent him back into DFA limbo in September, with the Tigers putting in a claim, though they then gave him his third DFA of the year in December.

Though Madris didn’t show much in the majors this year, he did well in 81 Triple-A games between the Pirates’ and the Rays’ systems. He posted a 9.9 percent walk rate against a 22.2 percent strikeout rate, leading to a combined batting line of .297/.366/.510 and a wRC+ of 130.

For the Astros, they had a couple of open roster spots and have decided to use one of them to grab Madris.He has limited experience at first base and in center field but has primarily been a corner outfielder. The Astros should have Kyle Tucker in one corner while Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley will likely be sharing another corner and the designated hitter slot. Alvarez dealt with some nagging injuries in 2022 while Brantley underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in August. Madris still has a couple of option years remaining and can give the club an extra layer of cover for an injury but could also be sent to the minors if he’s not needed in the big leagues.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Some teams don’t publicly announce contract terms, or in some cases, even if a manager or a top front office executive (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, or whatever title is given to the lead decision-maker) has been given an extension whatsoever.  As a result, this list of the managers and executives entering the final years of their contracts is somewhat unofficial, as it wouldn’t be surprising if at least a few names on this list are indeed locked up beyond 2023 on pre-existing contracts or on extensions that have yet to be publicly announced.

Naturally, job security goes beyond just the terms of a contract.  One wouldn’t have imagined that the Rangers’ Jon Daniels or the Royals’ Dayton Moore were necessarily on thin ice heading into the 2022 season, yet the two longtime front office bosses were fired before the season was even over, as both Texas and Kansas City underachieved.  Likewise, former Astros GM James Click seemed like a sure bet for a long-term deal given Houston’s success, and yet due to some internal discord with owner Jim Crane, Click ended up leaving after the Astros offered him only (what seemed like a token of a) one-year extension.

The addition of the extra wild card spot could put even more pressure on teams to win, especially since the Phillies’ run from sixth seed to NL champions underlined what can happen if a club can just get into the postseason bracket.  In addition, some of the names on this list face uncertainty due to potential changes in team ownership — and as the Astros showed, no amount of on-field success can help if an owner simply wants someone new in the baseball ops department.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: Phil Nevin was moved from third base coach to interim manager when Joe Maddon was fired in June, and Nevin ended up leading the Angels to an underwhelming 46-60 record in his first stint as a big league skipper.  Despite the lack of success, the Halos removed the interim tag by signing Nevin to a one-year deal, giving him a longer (but not much longer) opportunity to see what he can do as the team’s manager.  The Angels organization as a whole is in a fluid state given that a new owner might be running the club by Opening Day or soon thereafter, and yet in what looks to be Arte Moreno’s last offseason as the Halos’ owner, Anaheim has been pretty aggressive in adding roster pieces to try and find that elusive winning mix.  If Nevin can help get Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and company to the playoffs or even over the .500 mark, it will greatly help his case for a long-term contract under the new owner….or, possibly a managerial job elsewhere if the new owner still wants to brings in their own personnel.

Astros: Hired in rather abrupt fashion in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal, Dusty Baker’s three seasons in Houston have resulted in two World Series appearances, and the 2022 championship represented Baker’s first ring as a manager in 25 seasons in the dugout.  Baker’s initial contract (one year and a club option) has been followed up by successive one-year deals that weren’t finalized until after the Astros’ playoff runs were over, but Crane has repeatedly stated that he prefers to avoid distractions by waiting until after the season to work out contractual matters.  Baker’s age (74 in June) might be another reason why Crane has resisted giving Baker a longer-term deal, so another extension might not come for Baker until October or November.  With the Click situation lingering as an odd footnote to Houston’s championship season, Baker at least seems to have more sway with ownership than the former GM did, yet the Astros might have to keep winning to ensure that Baker is back in 2024.

Athletics: GM David Forst has been a member of Oakland’s front office since 2000, and he’ll now finally take over as the top job in the baseball operations department after Billy Beane moved to an advisory role with the club.  As per the terms of Forst’s last extension, he is signed through the 2023 season, and there wasn’t any word of a new contract attached to the Athletics’ announcement of Forst’s new role.  As the A’s continue to search for a new ballpark in Oakland or a potential move to a new city, there’s a bit of flux involved throughout the organization, yet it would certainly seem like the A’s will continue their tradition of front-office continuity by giving Forst a new deal at some point.  Forst is currently shepherding the Athletics through their latest rebuild, but if an extension wasn’t worked out, he would likely quickly find work elsewhere given how many teams have tried to poach him for other front office vacancies in recent years.

Brewers: Craig Counsell has been managing the Brew Crew since 2015, and 2023 is the final year of the skipper’s current four-year contract.  Milwaukee is an impressive 615-555 under Counsell’s watch, with two NL Central titles, four postseason appearances and a trip to the NLCS in 2018.  However, 2018 was also the last time the Brewers won a playoff series, and the team’s postseason streak ended in 2022 despite a respectable 86-76 record.  It would still seem like Counsell would be a strong candidate to receive an extension, though there’s some uncertainty throughout the organization in the wake of David Stearns’ rather surprising decision to step down as the team’s president of baseball operations.  General manager Matt Arnold is now in charge of the front office, though past reports suggested that Arnold’s own deal only lasts through the 2023 season.  Brewers owner Mark Attanasio could have some inclination to pursue a new direction if the Brewers struggled next year, and if Arnold isn’t seen as a long-term answer, Attanasio could look for a new front office boss as Stearns’ true replacement, and a new PBO or GM might also want to make their own managerial hire.

Cardinals: 2023 is the final season of the three-year extension John Mozeliak signed in November 2019.  A member of the Cardinals organization since 1995 and the head of their front office since the 2007-08 offseason, Mozeliak has been working under the president of baseball operations title since 2017.  Michael Girsch was promoted to the GM role at that same time, and is signed through at least 2024 as per the terms of an extension signed back in October.  With Girsch’s deal in mind, it would seem like Mozeliak will also be extended again, as the Cardinals have enjoyed 15 straight winning seasons and have reached the postseason in each of the last four years.  This being said, the bar for success is always high in St. Louis, and the team hasn’t won a playoff series since 2019 and hasn’t reached the World Series since 2013.

Diamondbacks: Executive VP/general manager Mike Hazen was already under contract through 2020 when he signed a new extension in September 2019, and the length of that new deal wasn’t released.  As such, it is possible 2023 might be Hazen’s final year under contract.  Manager Torey Lovullo’s status is more public, as the D’Backs exercised their club option on his services for 2023.  Since the Diamondbacks haven’t had a winning season since 2019 and haven’t made the postseason since 2017 (Hazen and Lovullo’s first year in Arizona), ownership might be waiting to see if any significant progress is made before exploring an extension for either its GM or manager.

Dodgers: Andrew Friedman came to Los Angeles on a five-year, $35MM contract that covered the 2014-19 seasons, and he then signed a new extension of an unknown length after the 2019 campaign was complete.  If that extension was only a four-year pact, 2023 would be Friedman’s final season as the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, barring another new deal.  Despite the relative lack of postseason success in regards to the Dodgers’ dominance of the regular season, Friedman’s tenure has still delivered one World Series title, and it would seem like he has as much job security as anyone in baseball.

Giants: Farhan Zaidi is entering the final season of his five-year contract as San Francisco’s president of baseball operations.  Through two years of rebuilding (and competitive baseball) and then a 107-win season in 2021, it seemed like the Giants had taken a fast track to success, but things took a step backwards with an 81-81 record last year.  Heading into with the winter with an aggressive mandate to spend and attract high-profile talent to the Bay Area, the Giants have added some notable players but fallen short on two superstars — Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees, while Carlos Correa had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM pact with the Giants before the team delayed finalizing the deal due to concerns stemming from Correa’s physical.  Correa immediately pivoted to the Mets on a 12-year, $315MM contract, and since the Mets reportedly have their own issues with Correa’s lower right leg and ankle, the situation has become less of a fiasco for the Giants than it initially appeared.  Team chairman Greg Johnson gave Zaidi a vote of confidence heading into the offseason, but it remains to be seen if ownership is satisfied with the aftermath of this very unusual winter.

Guardians: There hasn’t yet been any public word on the details of Terry Francona’s extension, but the reigning AL Manager Of The Year has already been confirmed as returning for the 2023 campaign.  Given Francona’s health issues, 2023 could be his final season in the dugout, but the Guardians’ front office and team owner Paul Dolan have both intimated that Francona can remain as manager as long as he is willing and able.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti also doesn’t seem to be in any danger, though the longtime Cleveland exec’s contract terms aren’t known.

Marlins: Kim Ng has a 137-188 record over her first two seasons as Miami’s general manager, though as usual with the Marlins, it isn’t clear how much of those struggles are the GM’s fault.  Derek Jeter’s departure as CEO last March left an upper management void within the organization, and while the Marlins have slightly expanded payroll in Ng’s tenure, they are still among the game’s lower spenders.  It could be argued that with Jeter and ex-manager Don Mattingly gone, Ng now freer rein to turn the Marlins in her own direction, beginning with the hiring of Skip Schumaker as the club’s new bench boss.  The terms of Ng’s contract weren’t publicly revealed, so 2023 could conceivably be the final guaranteed year of her deal — if so, some progress might be necessary to keep owner Bruce Sherman from starting yet another rebuild.

Nationals: President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez are both only signed through the 2023 season, as the Nationals exercised club options on both men back in July.  Wins and losses aren’t really a factor for the rebuilding Nats, but the ongoing search for a new owner certainly is, though the most recent reports haven’t given any clear timeline on when a sale might be finalized.  As a result, Rizzo and Martinez might each be facing a lame-duck season, with their fates unknown until a new owner is in place.

Orioles: The contract terms of GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde haven’t been publicized, though Hyde’s newest extension runs through at least the 2023 season.  Since the O’s were so quiet about extending Hyde, it wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that Elias was also extended at some point, continuing a tenure that began with the 2018-19 offseason.  Regardless of the details, it certainly doesn’t seem like either Elias or Hyde are going anywhere, considering how the Orioles had a winning record (83-79) in 2022 and seem ready to put their rebuild firmly in the rearview mirror.

Pirates: Speaking of rebuilds, the Pirates can only hope for a Baltimore-esque breakout next year.  Ben Cherington is entering the fourth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, on a contract of an unknown length.  Manager Derek Shelton is concretely operating on a four-year pact, so 2023 will be his last guaranteed season, though Cherington has spoken glowingly about Shelton’s work in leading the young Bucs through the hard times of the rebuild period.  Extensions would keep Shelton and perhaps Cherington from being lame ducks in 2023, though there doesn’t seem to be any sense that either is in danger of being let go.

Rangers: Chris Young became the Rangers’ GM in December 2020, and he unexpectedly found himself in charge of the front office entirely once Daniels was fired in August.  The terms of Young’s initial contract weren’t known, and it doesn’t seem as though his surprise promotion came with any extra years added onto his deal.  The Rangers’ spending spree over the last two offseasons has left no doubt that ownership wants to win now, so Young’s own job could be in jeopardy if Texas struggles (or perhaps has a slow start) in 2023.  That said, Young’s past history as a player under manager Bruce Bochy surely played a role in convincing Bochy to become the Rangers’ new skipper, so Young has started to make his influence known in the Texas front office.

Reds: David Bell’s two-year contract is up after the 2023 season, which would be Bell’s fifth season as the Reds’ manager.  Cincinnati promoted GM Nick Krall as the leader of the baseball ops department following the 2020 season, and Krall has since been tasked with cutting payroll and setting the Reds on a rebuilding path.  Krall’s contract length isn’t publicly known, so 2023 probably isn’t a make-or-break season for Krall to help his job security, unless the team absolutely craters and the development of the Reds’ younger players hits a roadblock.  The same could be true of Bell, unless the front office feels a new voice is needed in the dugout to continue the progress.

Red Sox: The terms of Chaim Bloom’s contract as Boston’s chief baseball officer aren’t publicly known, though 2023 will be Bloom’s fourth season.  This is a notable threshold considering Bloom’s predecessors in leading the Red Sox front office — Cherington didn’t last four full seasons, while Dave Dombrowski spent slightly over four years on the job, from August 2015 to September 2019.  Those two executives led the Sox to World Series titles in those brief tenures, while under Bloom, the Red Sox have a pair of last-place finishes sandwiched around a berth in the 2021 ALCS.  Assuming ownership is still as impatient to win, Bloom might need the Sox to take a big step up in 2023 in order to keep his job.

Rockies: Bud Black has only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal, yet seems to be operating on what The Athletic’s Nick Groke reported as “a rolling year-to-year contract.”  Even considering how the Rockies traditionally operate on a system of loyalty and continuity, one would imagine that a fifth straight losing season might be enough to convince the team to pursue a new manager.

Royals: Similar to the Rangers’ situation with Young, Kansas City GM J.J. Picollo found himself atop the Royals’ baseball ops pyramid when Moore was fired in September, with no word of a contract extension attached to this change in responsibility.  The difference is that Picollo has had a much longer tenure in K.C. (having worked in the front office since 2006 under Moore’s leadership), and while owner John Sherman is undoubtedly eager to start winning, he hasn’t invested the hundreds of millions that the Rangers’ owners have in their struggling club.  Immediate success might not be expected in Picollo’s first year, but his chances of a longer deal might hinge on whether or not the Royals’ younger players start developing at a better rate, or if new manager Matt Quatraro can get more out of the young club.

Twins: The 2022 season completed the guaranteed portion of Rocco Baldelli’s initial contract with the Twins, which was a four-year deal with multiple club options attached.  Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey stated in September that Baldelli would be back next season, so at the very least, the Twins have exercised their option on Baldelli for 2023.  For what it’s worth, Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both under contract through 2024, and it is possible Falvey, Levine, and Baldelli might all be in hot water if the Twins can’t turn things around this coming season.  Minnesota followed up AL Central titles in both 2019 and 2020 with two losing seasons, and another sub-.500 campaign might make Baldelli the first one out the door, given his lesser contractual control.

White Sox: Executive VP Ken Williams (1997) and general manager Rick Hahn (2002) are each long-time members of Chicago’s front office, and have been in their current positions since October 2012.  Since the White Sox don’t publicize executive contracts, not much is known about Williams or Hahn’s status, other than that their last extensions came during the 2017 season.  It’s fair to guess that both might have received new deals since that time, but in any case, it may be a moot point given how owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t quick to make changes in the front office.  The hope is that new manager Pedro Grifol can succeed where Tony La Russa didn’t, and there hasn’t been any sense that Williams or Hahn might be on the hot seat, though that could possibly change if a White Sox team built to win now stumbles again.

Astros Re-Sign Michael Brantley

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December 21: The Astros have officially announced the deal. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle provides a breakdown of the incentives. Brantley will get $500K for reaching 400 and 425 plate appearances, then an extra $750K at 450, 475, 500 and 525 appearances.

December 18: The Astros have agreed to a one-year, $12MM deal with outfielder Michael Brantley, pending a physical.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported the contract value, with The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links) adding that the deal also contains $4MM in additional incentive bonuses.  FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link) initially reported that the two sides were in talks about a new deal.  Brantley is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Brantley is entering his age-36 season, and 2023 will be his fifth year in a Houston uniform.  He previously signed a pair of two-year, $32MM pacts with the team in his two past trips to free agency, and by coincidence, it was four years ago today that Brantley first agreed to join the Astros.

In terms of pure numbers, Brantley’s tenure in Houston has been very successful, with a 128 wRC+ and a .306/.368/.464 slash line and 40 homers over 1609 plate appearances.  Unfortunately for Brantley, his role in the Astros’ 2022 championship season ended on June 26, due to a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery.  Brantley played in only 64 games.

This isn’t the first time Brantley has dealt with a shoulder surgery, as he previously went under the knife to fix a small labrum tear in 2015 and subsequently played in only 11 games for Cleveland in the 2016 season.  Beyond the shoulder problems, Brantley has also faced ankle and back problems throughout his career, but his first three seasons with the Astros were reasonably healthy.  Quad, knee, and hamstring issues sent Brantley to the injured list three times in 2020-21, but all three IL stints combined for roughly a month of missed time.

The presence of Yordan Alvarez has probably kept the Astros from using Brantley as a DH as often as they would probably like, though on paper, manager Dusty Baker can alternate the two players between left field and DH in order to hopefully keep everyone fresh.  With Brantley back in the mix, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick will now be splitting time in center field.

The Astros were known to be looking for outfield help, preferably a left-handed bat (like Brantley) to balance out a lineup of mostly right-handed hitters.  Michael Conforto and the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar were other free agents reportedly on Houston’s radar, and the Astros also had some talks with the Diamondbacks about their surplus of lefty-hitting outfielders, particularly Daulton Varsho.  Among players who have already signed with other teams, Andrew Benintendi and Cody Bellinger also received some consideration from the World Series champions.

Among all these options, the Astros opted for a familiar face in Brantley, counting on a comeback year.  The signing suggests that Houston (who knows Brantley’s medical profile better than anyone) is feeling good about the outfielder’s chances of both recovering well from shoulder rehab, and returning to his prior form at the plate.  The $4MM in performance incentives gives Brantley an additional chance to cash in should he indeed stay healthy and keep up his usual levels of productivity.

While the injuries are naturally the biggest question mark hanging over Brantley, there is also the matter of what can be expected of any hitter as he gets deeper into his 30’s.  Brantley’s homer totals and slugging percentage have both dropped rather sharply over the last two seasons, though he seemed to be adjusting by having a more keen eye at the plate.  Albeit in the small sample size of 277 PA, Brantley’s 11.2% walk rate in 2022 was the highest of his 14-year Major League career.  Brantley has also remained one of baseball’s toughest hitters to strike out, and his 45.1% hard-hit ball total last season was also his highest since Statcast began tracking the category in 2015.

Between Brantley and Jose Abreu, the Astros have bolstered their lineup with a pair of “professional hitter” types who brings plenty of experience to the table.  Between Brantley’s $12MM deal and Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract, Houston’s estimated payroll now sits at approximately $194MM, with a luxury tax figure of just over $209MM.  That still leaves the Astros well under the $233MM luxury tax threshold, and some of that space could be used on a catcher, since Houston has explored the market for backstops.  Some less-expensive options like Tucker Barnhart remain in free agency, or the Astros could look into trades with catcher-heavy teams like the Blue Jays.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Astros Have Some Interest In Jurickson Profar

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The signing of Jose Abreu filled a big hole at first base for the Astros, but the reigning World Series champions continue to explore ways to upgrade their outfield.  Past reports have suggested that free agents like Michael Conforto or old friend Michael Brantley are on Houston’s radar, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) adds Jurickson Profar as a new name under consideration.

Profar hit the open market after opting out of the final year (and leaving $6.5MM on the table) of his three-year deal with the Padres.  After some disappointing numbers in the first year of that contract, Profar rebounded to hit .243/.331/.391 with 15 homers over a career-best 658 plate appearances in 2022, and his offense translated to a 110 wRC+.

While this performance was strong enough for Profar (who turns 30 in February) to feel comfortable in exercising his opt-out clause, it does continue the roller-coaster nature of his last five seasons.  Alternating between solidly above and solidly below the league-average 100 wRC+ threshold, Profar clocks in at a 101 wRC+ in 2384 PA since the start of the 2018 season.  Between this inconsistency and Profar’s okay but not outstanding left field glove, it makes sense why teams have perhaps been hesitant about making a push for his services.  The Astros are the first team publicly linked to Profar since the offseason started.

MLBTR’s projection of a two-year, $20MM deal for Profar reflected these concerns about his market, but things could certainly pick up now that several other big free agents have some off the board.  Profar has the highest fWAR of any remaining free agent outfielder, and his offensive profile does contain such positives as a consistently low strikeout rate, and an increasingly excellent walk rate over the last two seasons.  While there has certainly been plenty of year-to-year variance in Profar’s numbers, it can be argued that he might still be a safer choice than either Brantley or Conforto, both of whom are coming off shoulder surgeries.  (Conforto didn’t even end up playing in 2022.)

Profar played only left field in San Diego last season, but he bounced around the diamond to play first base, second base, and the other two outfield positions in 2021.  While not the kind of true utilityman who could replace Aledmys Diaz (who signed with the A’s), Profar could at least provide some extra depth on the Astros’ roster.  The switch-hitting Profar could also help balance out a Houston lineup that is still heavy in right-handed bats.

Astros Finalize Coaching Staff

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The Astros announced this evening they’ve finalized their coaching staff for the 2023 campaign. It’ll be Dusty Baker’s fourth season running the show as the Astros look to defend their World Series title.

One previously unreported addition is the tabbing of Tommy Kawamura as game planning coach (h/t to Mark Berman of Fox 26). Formerly a member of the team’s advance scouting department in the front office, Kawamura makes the jump to the dugout. It’s a newly-created position for the Astros that’ll presumably increase Baker’s ability to match up with the opposition.

The rest of the staff returns, most in their previous roles. Joe Espada is back for a sixth season as bench coach. Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker return as co-hitting coaches; Jason Kanzler will be their assistant hitting coach, his second season on staff. Bill Murphy and Josh Miller will split pitching coach duties for the second straight year. Gary Pettis and Omar López will serve as base coaches, with Dan Firova and Michael Collins also remaining on staff.

There’s a strong amount of continuity with the group, as they return in hopes of backing up their championship. Houston made some key front office changes at the start of the offseason, but the non-playing field staff is back completely intact with the addition of Kawamura.

Astros, Diamondbacks Have Reportedly Discussed Daulton Varsho Trade

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The Astros and Diamondbacks have had recent trade discussions regarding Arizona outfielder Daulton Varsho, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). There’s no indication the sides are anywhere close on a deal at the moment, with Nightengale unsurprisingly adding the Snakes’ asking price is high.

Varsho has been the subject of frequent trade chatter this offseason alongside outfield mates Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy. Arizona has shown a willingness to listen to offers on their glut of talented young, left-handed hitting outfielders — other than Corbin Carroll, who appears off the table. The D-Backs aren’t planning to move anyone of that group for prospects, but they’re eyeing ways to balance their roster by dealing from an area of strength. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle each wrote last week the Astros were exploring trade possibilities in the D-Backs outfield, and Nightengale’s report suggests Varsho is a player they’re targeting.

The 26-year-old Varsho has the most trade appeal of any of the players the Diamondbacks could ostensibly deal. A catching prospect coming out of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, he’s seen increasing work in the outfield in pro ball. That has suited him exceptionally well, as Varsho is a better athlete than one might expect for a player with his catching background. He has quickly developed into one of the sport’s top defensive outfielders, posting elite marks that earned him some consideration in this year’s NL Gold Glove voting in right field.

Varsho logged 920 1/3 innings in the outfield this past season, splitting his time between right (541 2/3) and center (378 2/3). He drew resoundingly strong marks from public metrics at both spots. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as 19 runs above average, while Statcast estimated he was 16 runs above par. The latter mark tied San Diego’s Trent Grisham for most in the majors among outfielders. Varsho’s an above-average runner who got excellent marks from Statcast for his reads and first step off the bat, belying his lack of experience in the outfield.

The Diamondbacks also gave him 175 innings behind the plate, but his days as a catcher in Arizona seem to be in the rearview mirror. Varsho’s last start there came on June 9, with organization apparently deciding he was too gifted an outfielder to continue putting him behind the dish. He’s at least capable of moonlighting back there if needed, but his defensive ability as a catcher has long been questioned by scouts and advanced metrics alike. Any team trading for Varsho at this point would do so primarily to play him in the outfield.

Varsho has a more mixed offensive track record, but he’s coming off his best season to date. Through 592 plate appearances, he hit .235/.302/.443 and slugged 27 home runs. His batted ball metrics weren’t quite so impressive, as he ranked right around league average in both average exit velocity and hard contact rate. Varsho also has rather extreme platoon splits over the course of his career, with virtually all his damage done against right-handed pitching. He carries a .234/.276/.339 line in 255 plate appearances against lefties compared to a .233/.315/.465 mark in 767 looks against right-handers.

Those mid-tier hard contact numbers and marked platoon splits might give other teams pause about Varsho’s ability to consistently sustain above-average offensive production. Still, there’s room for him to remain a quality even if his performance takes a slight step back from this year’s marks. He’s a solid hitter against right-handed pitching whose stellar glove means he doesn’t solely need to work with favorable platoon matchups. Varsho also rates well as a baserunner and has gone 25 of 32 in his career on stolen base attempts.

With two years and 128 days of MLB service, Varsho qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.8MM salary, and he’ll remain under club control through the end of the 2026 campaign. With four affordable seasons of control and a well-rounded profile, the D-Backs can justifiably ask for a major return.

Houston already has Kyle Tucker locked into right field, but they’re facing some questions at the other two spots. Chas McCormick is a solid option to play center, although the Astros have given some consideration to taking a swing at a star trade acquisition at the position. Left field is a complete question mark with Michael Brantley hitting free agency. The Astros are known to want a left-handed hitting outfielder, and they’ve been tied to free agent possibilities like Brantley, Michael Conforto and Andrew Benintendi. It’s little surprise they’d check in on Varsho as well, particularly since he could also cover center field on days when Houston wants to pencil Yordan Alvarez into left.

It’s unclear what the Diamondbacks would want back from Houston to push a Varsho deal over the line. Given Arizona’s need for starting pitching behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, however, it’s easy to draw a speculative line to the Astros collection of excellent young starters. Players like Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and top prospect Hunter Brown could each be of interest to Arizona GM Mike Hazen and his staff. That’s true to a lesser extent of José Urquidy, although he’d likely be more of a secondary piece if included as part of any Varsho deal.

D-Backs pitching coach Brent Strom is plenty familiar with that group from his days holding the same position in Houston. Whether the Astros would deal from their rotation depth after watching Justin Verlander depart seems an open question, but it’s at least plausible the teams could line up on an outfielder for starting pitcher swap given their respective areas of strength.

Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

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One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

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