Upcoming Club Option Decisions: AL West
Last week, MLBTR took an early look at offseason option decisions facing teams in the National League. We’re continuing our division by division series moving through the Junior Circuit. To round out the series, we move to the AL West. There are only five players in the division whose contracts contain options but they’re spread among every team aside from the Mariners.
Previous posts: NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East, AL Central
Houston Astros
- Hector Neris: $8.5MM club option ($1MM buyout); converts to player option with 40 appearances in 2023
Neris’ option is presently a club provision, but it’s not likely to be for much longer. His free agent deal with the Astros allowed him to convert the third-year option into a player provision in a few ways — one of which was by making a combined 110 appearances between 2022-23. The bullpen workhorse pitched 70 times last year, leaving him just 40 shy of the mark entering 2023. (As is common for provisions like these, he’ll also have to pass a physical at season’s end.)
Manager Dusty Baker has already called upon Neris 25 times this season. He needs just 15 more outings to turn this into a player provision. That’s a lock barring a major injury, with Neris potentially triggering the mark by the All-Star Break.
That could prove lucrative, as he’s building a strong case for another multi-year free agent deal. Neris carries a 1.13 ERA over 24 frames. While he’s obviously not going to keep preventing runs at quite that pace, he’s fanning over 31% of opponents and picking up swinging strikes on a huge 15.4% of his offerings. Even nearing age 34, Neris could push for a two-year deal in the $15-20MM range, where the likes of Joe Kelly and Chris Martin have landed in recent seasons.
Los Angeles Angels
- Aaron Loup: $7.5MM club option ($2.5MM buyout)
The Halos signed Loup to a two-year, $17MM free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason. He was effective enough in year one, though the Angels probably expected better than a 3.84 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate over 58 2/3 innings. That’d be a marked improvement over Loup’s early results this year, however. The 35-year-old has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) with 11 strikeouts and six walks over 13 1/3 frames. Los Angeles looks likely to take the buyout.
Oakland A’s
- Drew Rucinski: $5MM club option (no buyout)
Oakland took a low-cost flier on Rucinski last winter. They signed him to a $3MM guarantee with a promised rotation spot after he’d been an effective starter in South Korea for four seasons. The 34-year-old righty hasn’t had a chance to get on track. He began the year on the injured list with a hamstring strain. He returned to make four starts and was tagged for 22 runs with a ghastly 6:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 innings. Rucinski went back on the IL a few weeks ago with an illness. It’s been a disastrous first couple months and the option is trending towards a declination.
- Manny Piña: $4MM club option (no buyout)
The A’s acquired Piña as a veteran complement to Shea Langeliers in the Sean Murphy trade. He’d been limited to five games last year thanks to a left wrist injury that required surgery. Complications with the wrist flared up in Spring Training and he’s spent this season on the IL as well. The A’s are likely to cut him loose at year’s end.
Texas Rangers
- José Leclerc: $6.25MM club option ($500K buyout)
At his best, Leclerc looks like a quality high-leverage reliever. He misses tons of bats and routinely pushes or exceeds a 30% strikeout rate. Yet he’s paired those whiffs with plenty of free passes. Control has become especially problematic this year, as he’s dished out walks to almost 16% of opponents. Leclerc is carrying a sub-3.00 ERA but benefitting from a .256 average on balls in play.
Leclerc started slowly last season after working back from Tommy John surgery. He caught fire down the stretch, leading Texas to exercise a $6MM option for 2023. There’s still time for him to repeat that pattern but he’ll have to dial in the strike-throwing to do so.
Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions
The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.
June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.
Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.
As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.
A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.
While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.
Let’s begin!
Honorable Mentions
Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)
Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.
Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.
Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.
Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)
Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.
Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.
As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.
Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)
The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.
Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.
Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).
2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch
Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)
Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.
The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.
That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.
Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)
Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.
Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto‘s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins‘ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper‘s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.
Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)
This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.
At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.
Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)
Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).
Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.
Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.
It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).
Astros Select Grae Kessinger
June 5: The Astros have now made all of this official, announcing the selection of Kessinger, the optioning of Salazar and the transfer of Garcia to the 60-day IL.
June 4: The Astros are expected to promote infielder Grae Kessinger, reports Mark Berman of Fox 26, with catcher César Salazar optioned in a corresponding move. Kessinger isn’t on the 40-man roster and will require a corresponding move to get a spot there though that could easily be accomplished by transferring someone like Luis Garcia, who is out for the year due to Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day injured list.
Kessinger, 25, was selected by the Astros in the second round of the 2019 draft. He made some appearances in Low-A and Single-A that year and was ranked the club’s #10 prospect by Baseball America going into 2020. After the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues that year, he spent 2021 in Double-A but struggled. He hit just .209/.287/.330 for a wRC+ of 67, though he did steal 12 bases and play the three infield positions to the left of first base. He stuck in Double-A in 2022 and improved slightly, hitting .211/.327/.366 for a wRC+ of 82 while swiping 23 bags.
Those tepid results put a dent in his prospect stock but he was promoted to Triple-A for this year and has fared better, walking in 15.4% of his plate appearances against a 19.5% strikeout rate. His .284/.400/.443 batting line amounts to a 107 wRC+ and he’s continued to bounce around to the different infield positions. He’ll now be in position to make his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.
The promotion of Kessinger is likely due to the oblique soreness that has kept Jose Altuve out of the lineup for the past two days. With Altuve unavailable for the past two contests, the clubs has run out an infield of Alex Bregman at third, Jeremy Peña at short and Mauricio Dubón at second. But with three catchers on the roster in Salazar, Martín Maldonado and Yainer Diaz, they didn’t really have a backup in the event of any of those guys suddenly needing to leave a game. Swapping in Kessinger and reverting to the standard two-catcher setup will give the club a bit more infield security until Altuve is ready to return to action.
Roger Craig Passes Away
The Giants announced that former big league player and manager Roger Craig has passed away. He was 93 years old.
“We have lost a legendary member of our Giants family,” said Larry Baer, Giants president and chief executive officer in a press release from the club. “Roger was beloved by players, coaches, front office staff and fans. He was a father figure to many and his optimism and wisdom resulted in some of the most memorable seasons in our history. Our heartfelt condolences go out to his wife, Carolyn, his four children, Sherri Paschelke, Roger Craig Jr, Teresa Hanvey and Vikki Dancan, his seven grandchildren, his 14 great grandchildren as well as his extended family and friends.”
Craig was born in Durham, North Carolina and began his professional career when he signed with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1950. A right-handed pitcher, he spent some time in the minors but military service during the Korean War prevented him from playing in 1952 or 1953. He made his major league debut in 1955, tossing 90 2/3 innings with a 2.78 ERA. The Dodgers won the pennant that year and faced the Yankees in the World Series. Craig started Game 5 and tossed six innings of two-run ball, earning the victory and giving the Dodgers a 3-2 lead. The Yanks would go on to win Game 6 but the Dodgers eventually won the deciding game and became champions. He went on to spend a further six years with the Dodgers, sticking with them as they moved to Los Angeles in 1958 and through the end of 1961, largely serving as a starter but also working out of the bullpen. They won another World Series title in 1959.
His tenure with the Dodgers ended when he was selected by the Mets in the 1962 expansion draft, making him one of the original Mets. The team fared poorly in their first two seasons but Craig was one of the more reliable members of the club, tossing over 230 innings in both 1962 and 1963. He gradually transitioned into more of a relief role in the next few years, pitching for the Cardinals in 1964, the Reds in 1965 and the Phillies in 1966. He won a third World Series ring with the Cards in 1964, tossing five scoreless relief innings as his club beat the Yankees in seven games.
That was his last season as a player but he quickly moved into other baseball roles. He became a scout and minor league manager with the Dodgers before being hired as the first pitching coach of the Padres, taking that role in their inaugural 1969 season. He stayed with the Padres for many years and also coached with the Astros before returning to the Friars. Just before Opening Day in 1978, Padres manager Alvin Dark was fired and Craig was put into the Skipper’s chair. They had a solid 84-78 showing that year but dropped to 68-93 the year after, leading to Craig’s firing.
Craig then joined the Tigers as a pitching coach for several years before being hired as the manager of the Giants late in 1985. That season saw the club finish with a losing record for the third straight year but they turned things around from there. They won 83 games in 1986, the first of five straight winning seasons. They won the National League West division in 1987 and 1989, losing the NLCS to the Cardinals in the former and the World Series to the Athletics in the latter. It was during this time that he earned the nickname “Humm Baby” that stuck with him from that point forward. The club’s fortunes tailed off in the next few years and Craig was fired after the 1992 season.
Craig’s playing career resulted in 1536 1/3 innings pitched with 803 strikeouts and a 3.83 ERA. On top of that, he had many postseason accolades and won three titles during his playing career. He then went on to have a lengthy coaching career, winning another title in that capacity while with the Tigers in 1984. As a manager, he went 738-737 overall but 586-566 with the Giants, leading that club to the postseason twice and the World Series once. We at MLB Trade Rumors join in the rest of the baseball community in sending condolences to his family, friends, fans and colleagues who are mourning him today.
Injury Notes: Garrett, Altuve, Rosario, Rodriguez, Avisail
The Royals placed Amir Garrett on the 15-day injured list yesterday, with a retroactive May 29 placement date. The left-hander is suffering from a valgus extension overload in his throwing elbow, which manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including MLB.com) is like a bone bruise. Garrett will miss roughly 3-4 weeks in total, and will be shut down for the next 5-7 days before being re-examined.
Since Kansas City already seems out of the pennant race, that means Garrett should be able to return well before the trade deadline, and perhaps establish himself as a trade chip for a Royals team that is already open to moving relievers. Garrett is a free agent this winter, making him even more of an obvious trade candidate as a rental player. Beyond his current health issue, however, the biggest obstacle in the way of a Garrett deal is his garish 17.7% walk rate, the highest yet for a pitcher who has struggled with control over most of his seven MLB seasons. While Garrett has only a 3.00 ERA over 21 innings and his strikeout (25%) and grounder (48.1%) rates are both respectable, the walk rate certainly stands out as a red flag for any interesting suitors.
More on other injury situations around baseball…
- Jose Altuve didn’t play today and likely won’t play on Sunday, as Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle) that Altuve is dealing with a minor oblique problems. The second baseman felt discomfort after a swing in Friday’s game, and while the injury isn’t deemed serious enough to merit an MRI, the Astros are naturally being careful with Altuve given how oblique problems can linger or become easily aggravated. It’s a day-to-day situation for now, though Houston doesn’t have an off-day on the schedule until June 12.
- The Guardians removed Amed Rosario from today’s game in the fourth inning due to left knee soreness. Rosario is day-to-day for now, and since Cleveland has an off-day on Monday, it seems very likely that Rosario will be sat for Sunday’s game to give him two full days to rest and recover. Rosario has struggled badly this season, hitting only .224/.270/.314 over 226 plate appearances, and he has the fourth-lowest fWAR (-0.7) of any qualified player in 2023. Any of Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, or Brayan Rocchio could get more playing time at shortstop if Rosario has to miss an extended amount of time.
- Joely Rodriguez was warming up in preparation of entering tonight’s Rays/Red Sox game, but Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe) that Rodriguez had to halt his warmup due to soreness in his bicep and shoulder area. More will be known once some tests are run, but it certainly looks like Rodriguez could be headed back to the IL. An oblique injury in Spring Training already delayed Rodriguez’s season debut until May 17, and the left-hander has struggled to an 18.00 ERA over his four innings and five appearances.
- The Marlins told reporters (including Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base) that Avisail Garcia‘s rehab assignment has been temporarily halted, as he will receive examination on his sore back. Garcia has already been on the IL since April 29 due to lower back tightness, so while the team described the setback as “minor,” it is a little worrisome to see Garcia further delayed. The outfielder has played in four games with Triple-A Jacksonville during his rehab assignment.
Forrest Whitley Out 3-4 Months With Lat Strain
Astros minor league pitcher Forrest Whitley has been diagnosed with a lat strain and will miss between three and four months, the club announced today (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). That timetable puts his 2023 campaign in jeopardy.
It’s the latest brutal blow for a player who was once among the sport’s top prospects. Whitley was a first round draftee in 2016 and looked like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter early in his pro career. Baseball America ranked the 6’7″ hurler among the sport’s ten most promising minor leaguers in both 2018 and ’19.
Things have unfortunately gone sharply downhill since then. Whitley was suspended for a violation of the minor league drug program in 2018, keeping him to eight starts that year. He battled shoulder issues the next season, then was kept out of game action by the pandemic cancelation of the minors in 2020. Whitley underwent Tommy John surgery in Spring Training 2021 and only returned towards the tail end of last season.
Whitley opened this year back in Triple-A Sugar Land. He surrendered a 5.70 ERA over 30 innings while struggling to throw strikes. Whitley’s 23.7% strikeout rate was solid but he walked nearly 13% of opposing hitters. He’s had scattershot command the past few years, though that’s not especially surprising since the injuries have prevented him from staying on the mound consistently.
The Astros added Whitley to the 40-man roster after the 2020 season to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has still yet to reach the majors. This is his third minor league option year. Most players can only be sent to the minors in three separate seasons before being exposed to waivers. Exceptions are sometimes made for players who’ve spent a significant chunk of time on the injured list, however. Whitley would seem a prime candidate for a fourth option. That likely won’t be known until next offseason.
Houston will have to weigh whether it’s worth keeping Whitley on the 40-man regardless. They could clear a spot in-season by placing him on the MLB 60-day IL and paying him a major league salary for time spent rehabbing. There’s no injured list over the offseason and Whitley will be five years removed from the peak of his prospect stock if he doesn’t return this season.
Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan
With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA
Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.
Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA
Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721
Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.
Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA
Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.
Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.
Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA
The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.
Three More
Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).
Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.
Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Lance McCullers Jr. No Longer Throwing Off Mound
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. is no longer throwing from a mound, manager Dusty Baker informed reporters before today’s matchup with the Twins (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Baker didn’t provide any additional specifics, noting only the club will “take it slow with Lance until we know that he’s 100 percent.”
It’s unclear how significant this latest development will be — the Astros are as cagy as any team about providing injury updates — but it represents a scaling back from where McCullers was a couple weeks ago. He’d progressed to bullpen sessions in mid-May but had moved back to throwing from flat ground of late. General manager Dana Brown recently pegged the All-Star Break as a loose estimate for his return to a big league mound; it’s unclear if or to what extent that timeline might now be delayed.
McCullers hasn’t pitched this year on account of a muscle strain in his forearm that was diagnosed over the offseason. It marked the continuation of arm issues for the 29-year-old, who was diagnosed with a flexor strain during the 2021 postseason. That cost him until mid-August last year. McCullers returned to make 11 starts between the regular season and playoffs to help the Astros to a World Series title but unfortunately again battled arm soreness over the winter.
The right-hander also has a Tommy John surgery in his history, having undergone the procedure over the 2018-19 offseason. There’s nothing to suggest he’s in danger of going back under the knife to address the current issue but it adds another reason for the Astros to be particularly cautious as they navigate any bumps in his recovery process.
McCullers has proven a very effective pitcher when healthy. He owns a career 3.48 ERA in 718 2/3 regular season innings and has a nearly identical 3.47 mark over 72 2/3 postseason frames. He allowed only 2.27 earned runs per nine innings over his eight regular season starts last year. McCullers’ upper mid-rotation form led the Astros to sign him to a five-year, $85MM extension in March 2021. That deal covers the 2022-26 campaigns. He’s making $15.25MM this season and will be paid $17MM annually over the next three years.
His absence is one of a number of rotation issues for the Astros. Houston lost Luis Garcia to Tommy John surgery earlier this month. José Urquidy is battling shoulder discomfort and might not be back until around the All-Star Break. Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have been fantastic, but the injuries have forced Houston to lean on depth options like J.P. France and Brandon Bielak at the back of the staff. There’s virtually no experienced depth in the organization beyond that quintet, so the rotation figures to be a deadline target area for Brown and his front office.
Quick Hits: Astros, Santana, Pagan, Muncy, Miller
The Astros don’t have an off-day until June 12, so the team had been considering moving to a six-man rotation to help keep their starters fresh during this busy stretch of the schedule. However, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) that the team might be forced to stick with a five-man alignment just due to a lack of available starting depth, since prospect Forrest Whitley has been placed on the Triple-A injured list due to a right lat strain. Whitley was the team’s top option for a spot start or two, and now Ronel Blanco might be the next candidate if Houston does indeed opt for a sixth starter.
Jose Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t expected back until around the All-Star break, while Luis Garcia‘s season has already been ended by Tommy John surgery. The injury situation has left the Astros short on starting pitching, and Whitley’s lat strain has again delayed his MLB debut. Once one of the sport’s top prospects, Whitley’s minor league career has been interrupted by a 50-game PED suspension in 2018, and by a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2021 season.
More on other injury situations that arose from today’s games…
- Carlos Santana left during the sixth inning of the Pirates‘ 6-3 loss to the Mariners today due to what the Bucs described as lumbar spine muscular tightness. It would certainly seem like Santana will miss a couple of games to recovery, and a trip to the injured list is possible if his back problem doesn’t subside. Connor Joe is the likeliest candidate for first base duty in Santana’s absence, but Pittsburgh might now be facing a depth problem at first base since Ji-Man Choi isn’t eligible to return from the 60-day IL until at least mid-July.
- Twins reliever Emilio Pagan faced only one batter in today’s 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays before departing due to a left hip flexor strain. Both Pagan and manager Rocco Baldelli expressed hope that an IL stint wasn’t necessary, with Pagan telling the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Jerry Zgoda and other reporters that “hopefully we caught it early enough, that I’m good to go in a day or two. I think I’ll be ready to go tomorrow if need be.”
- Max Muncy left today’s game with a cramp in his left hamstring, and the Dodgers infielder told MLB.com and other media that he has been dealing with cramps throughout the weekend. Muncy will undergo an MRI to further examine the issue, but for now, he is day to day. Between a scorching-hot April and then a big slump for much of May, Muncy is still hitting .208/.340/.530 over 203 plate appearances this season, and he belted his 17th home run before his early exit today.
- X-rays were negative on Owen Miller‘s right forearm, after the Brewers infielder was removed as a precautionary measure after being hit by a pitch in today’s game. Manager Craig Counsell told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters that Miller is day to day, and could be back for the team’s next game on Tuesday (Monday is an off-day for the Brew Crew). Miller’s hot bat has earned him more playing time, and after collecting two more hits today, Miller is slashing .330/.371/.513 over 124 PA.
AL Notes: Whitlock, Red Sox, McCullers, Naylor, Donaldson
Garrett Whitlock threw 79 pitches in a Triple-A rehab start today, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey) that Whitlock will be activated from the 15-day IL in time to start Saturday’s game against the Diamondbacks. Whitlock’s return won’t push anyone out of the rotation for now, as Cora said that Boston will use six starters over their six games this week, sandwiched around Thursday’s off-day. The team will re-assess the pitching situation after this full turn through a six-man rotation, Cora said, taking advantage of another off-day on May 29 to reset the staff as necessary.
Between injuries and inconsistency, Boston has had one of the weaker rotations in baseball, though Chris Sale, James Paxton, and Brayan Bello have all been sharp lately. Cora has said in the past that the Sox plan to keep Whitlock as a starter, leaving Tanner Houck and Corey Kluber as the potential odd men out if the club does adopt a traditional five-man pitching staff. Houck’s secondary numbers are at least better than his 5.48 ERA would indicate, but it has been a rough season all-around for Kluber, whose ERA has ballooned to 6.26 over 41 2/3 innings after he was hit hard in tonight’s start against the Padres. Kluber signed a one-year (plus a 2024 club option) contract worth a guaranteed $10MM in the offseason, but that deal is already looking like a misfire given the veteran’s struggles.
More from the American League…
- The Astros believe Lance McCullers Jr. can return “probably somewhere closer to the All-Star break, or after,” GM Dana Brown said in a radio interview on SportsTalk 790 AM (hat tip to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). There’s still some fluidity “depending on whether we can get him built up to start,” Brown noted. While not the clearest of timelines, it does represent some kind of target for McCullers, who hasn’t pitched this season after suffering a forearm strain early in Spring Training. Jose Urquidy is also tentatively expected to return from the injured list around the All-Star break, which could give the Astros a badly needed one-two boost to their depleted rotation.
- The Guardians called up Bo Naylor as the 27th man for their double-header with the Mets today, with Naylor going hitless in two plate appearances in the first game. This was Naylor’s first call-up of the 2023 season, after the catching prospect made his MLB debut with five games in 2022. Despite some mediocre numbers at throwing out baserunners at Triple-A this season, Naylor told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer and other reporters that “I feel I’m progressing well. I had a lot of work at [Triple-A] Columbus on some transfer stuff. It continues to progress every day. As of late it’s shown pretty well.” It remains to be seen when Naylor might get a longer look at the big league level, yet given how badly Cleveland’s offense has struggled, an argument can definitely be made that Naylor is already the best catching option in the organization. Naylor is hitting .257/.391/.507 over 184 PA at Triple-A, while the Guards’ catching quartet of Mike Zunino, Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria, and David Fry are all badly struggling at the plate.
- Now that the Yankees have designated Aaron Hicks for assignment, speculation has begun that Josh Donaldson could potentially join Hicks on the waiver wire when Donaldson is activated from the 10-day IL. The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner looks at some of the reasons why it may be time for the Yankees to part ways with the former AL MVP, most simply the fact that DJ LeMahieu looks like a more productive third base option than Donaldson right now, and LeMahieu won’t have a regular place to play once Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton are healthy. Even though the Yankees would have to eat the roughly $23.16MM in remaining salary owed to Donaldson, Kirschner writes that “for a team that makes as much money as the Yankees, it’s a rather minuscule amount that will make the roster fit more seamlessly if they decide it’s time to cut him loose.”