Padres Rumors

Diamond Sports Planning To File For Bankruptcy; MLB Planning To Stream Games For Free Temporarily

By Darragh McDonald | March 13, 2023 at 8:36pm CDT

Diamond Sports Group, the corporation that owns 14 Bally Sports regional sports networks, is expected to file for bankruptcy March 17, according to a report from Josh Kosman of The New York Post. The timeline will be awkward for Major League Baseball since the 2023 season opens on March 30, but the league plans to step in and broadcast the games themselves.

It had been reported for some time that Diamond is in financial trouble and they forewent interest payments worth roughly $140MM to creditors last month. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said at that time that the league was monitoring the situation, hoping that Diamond would make its payments but also drawing up contingency plans. It was subsequently reported that the league had hired multiple former RSN executives for a newly-created Local Media department, seemingly to get in position to take over broadcasting duties where necessary.

The problem stems from continued cord-cutting as fewer customers are paying for cable bundles these days, opting instead to use streaming services. That leads to decreased revenue from ad sales and cable contracts, creating situations where RSNs are paying teams more for rights fees than they are able to make back from those revenue streams. Per Kosman’s report, there are at least four teams where Diamond plans to reject the contracts via the bankruptcy proceedings. The teams in question are the Reds, Diamondbacks, Guardians and Padres, with the San Diego deal currently $20MM in the red on an annual basis.

The report goes on to state that MLB’s plan is to take over the local TV broadcasts of those teams, as well as streaming them for free in those local markets as they negotiate lower deals with cable companies. It’s not yet clear if fans in blacked-out markets would be able to access those streams in the short-term. If deals are reached, the league plans to offer over-the-top service for around $15 per month. As Kosman notes, that’s lower than some other streaming deals, with the Red Sox charging $29.99 per month. The league also already tried to acquire the rights to all 14 teams currently controlled by Diamond but were turned down. Those clubs are the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers, and Twins.

A similar situation has arisen with Warner Bros. Discovery, which owns AT&T SportsNet and is a minority owner of Root Sports. It was reported last month that Warner was planning to get out of the RSN business, which would have implications for the Rockies, Astros and Pirates, though not the Mariners. Warner only owns 40% of Root Sports Seattle with the Mariners owning the other 60%. Kosman’s report indicates the league plans to take over those broadcasts eventually as well, though not by Opening Day.

This is a fluid situation and many of the details are still being worked out, but it’s possible there is a sea change approaching in how Major League Baseball delivers its broadcasts to its fans. Most out-of-market games are available to paying subscribers via MLB TV, though these RSN deals have always taken precedent, leading to blackouts that prevent fans from watching their local club on the platform. Many fans have been critical of the way these blackouts are applied, with some subscribers saying that their home is covered by various overlapping blackout areas. The people of Iowa, for instance, have often complained that they can’t watch games featuring the Cubs, White Sox, Cardinals, Twins, Royals or Brewers. That’s an extreme example but highlights the sorts of issues with the current system. Manfred has expressed a desire to move to a new system that would allow customers to purchase broadcasts regardless of where they are, though it’s unclear how long it would take to get such a model in place.

Whenever that new system is in place, it will also have implications for the finances for teams. These RSN deals have long been a significant source of club revenue that seems to now be drying up. Streaming will present new revenues sources, of course, and already has. The league has previously agreed to lucrative deals with streaming platforms like Apple and NBC and may strike other deals in the future.

For now, it seems the immediate concern is making sure that the broadcasts for the 2023 season are maintained. Kosman reports that the league plans to retain current local announcers for any broadcasts that it takes over and it doesn’t seem as though there are any current concerns of games being missed. Assuming the league is successful in all of these plans, it’s possible that fans won’t notice much difference in their baseball consumption here this year, but the field may be wide open for changes down the line.

Adrián Morejón To Undergo MRI After Experiencing Arm Discomfort

By Darragh McDonald | March 13, 2023 at 4:44pm CDT

Padres left-hander Adrián Morejón will undergo an MRI this week, reports AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The lefty had departed yesterday’s game with discomfort above his elbow.

Until that MRI takes place and a diagnosis is reached, it won’t be known if Morejón needs to miss time or how much. For now, it’s a concerning development for both the pitcher and the club. Morejón was once one of the top prospects in the league, with Baseball America featuring him on their top 100 list in five straight seasons from 2017 to 2021. Unfortunately, he’s been slowed down by injuries since then, most significantly Tommy John surgery in 2021.

Morejón was able to return to the mound with the Padres last year, though they kept him in the bullpen. He tossed 34 innings over 26 appearances, as well as another 13 1/3 frames in the minors, bringing his season tally to 47 1/3. The club was hoping to have him continue as a starter this year, now that he’s further removed from that surgery.

The Padres assembled a rotation this winter that was fairly deep but came with some question marks. The front three of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell were going to be followed by Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. Wacha had a nice season in 2022 but has dealt with recurring shoulder issues and hasn’t reached the 130-inning mark in a season since 2017. Martinez and Lugo, meanwhile, were each going to attempt to hold down rotation roles despite more recent success as relievers.

There was already some uncertainty in that group to begin with, which was going to make pitching depth an important factor for the Padres. That was only exacerbated when Musgrove recently suffered a fractured toe during a weight room accident. He’s expected to miss at least a couple of turns through the rotation to begin the season, which will thin out the club’s depth for a while.

The Padres once seemed like they would open the season with a six-man rotation prior to that injury. It’s possible that Musgrove’s injury changed those plans, or perhaps they could have turned to one of their depth options. Morejón would have been firmly in the mix for such a job, alongside pitchers like Jay Groome, Julio Teheran, Brent Honeywell Jr., Ryan Weathers, Reiss Knehr and Pedro Avila.

Any significant injury would take Morejón out of the running for the time being, but it will depend upon what the imaging reveals. The 24-year-old wasn’t set to be an essential member of the club’s staff but the Padres surely don’t want to subtract from their depth, especially given the question marks in their rotation. Any kind of setback would also no doubt be frustrating for Morejón on a personal level since he’s missed so much time already. Despite having just 42 major league appearances under his belt, he’s racked up over three years of MLB service time, much of that spent on the injured list. He reached arbitration for the first time this winter and will make $800K this year. He’s slated for two more passes through arbitration before reaching free agency after 2025, though he still has options and could see that timeline pushed back if he’s sent down to the minors for a meaningful stretch of time at any point.

Craig Stammen “Highly Unlikely” To Pitch Again Following Shoulder Injury

By Nick Deeds | March 12, 2023 at 11:04pm CDT

Padres reliever Craig Stammen suffered a torn capsule in his right shoulder and strained sub scapula Friday, as reported by the San Diego Union Tribune’s Kevin Acee. Stammen, who just celebrated his 39th birthday, acknowledged that his “playing days are probably over,” though it seems Stammen and the club have not decided whether or not to pursue surgery. The longtime Padres right-hander was in camp on a minor league deal this spring.

Stammen was a 12th round pick by the Washington Nationals in the 2005 draft and began his career as a starter with the Nats back in 2009. In two seasons as a starter, Stammen struggled to a 5.12 ERA that was 19% below league average, causing the Nationals to move him to the bullpen. Stammen flourished in this role, as he posted a strong 2.80 ERA (138 ERA+) backed by a solid 3.12 FIP in 257 innings of work from 2011-2015 following his move to the bullpen. Unfortunately, his 2015 season ended in April with flexor tendon surgery, and Stammen would not return to the big leagues until 2017, when he joined the Padres.

In six years as a member of the Padres bullpen, Stammen largely pitched well en route to becoming the longest-tenured player on the major league roster. In addition to his 394 1/3 innings of 3.36 ERA ball, he was frequently cited as a leader and mentor in the clubhouse and beloved throughout the organization. Stammen began to struggle in 2022, however, as he posted a 4.43 ERA that was 15% below league average in addition to suffering a torn rotator cuff last season that sat him down for two months. This new injury has a recovery time of 4-6 months, and surgery would require an even lengthier rehab process.

Despite losing Stammen for, at bare minimum, the first half of the 2023 campaign, the Padres relief corps still appears set up well for success headed into 2023, with Drew Pomeranz and Robert Suarez joining closer Josh Hader at the back of San Diego’s bullpen. As previously mentioned, Stammen was in camp on a minor league contract and was far from a lock to make the Opening Day roster as he competed with the likes of Jose Lopez, Michel Baez, and Steven Wilson for a roster spot.

That Stammen is considering retirement following his latest injury is understandable given this the second severe injury the righty has suffered in just the last few months, particularly without a clear path to big league playing time upon his return. That said, even staring down the possibility of being unable to pitch competitively until his age-40 season, Stammen has not entirely closed the door on attempting a comeback, noting to reporters, “At this point today, I can’t imagine myself as not a baseball player… hopefully they’ll let me rehab for a little while.”

Yankees Notes: Kiner-Falefa, Judge, Center Field

By Simon Hampton | March 11, 2023 at 8:13am CDT

As youngsters Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe make strong cases to take over the Yankees’ starting shortstop role, there’s been plenty of speculation over the future of Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That speculation has only intensified as the Yankees have announced a series of injuries that’ll affect their roster over the opening few weeks of the season and beyond.

Kiner-Falefa is owed $6MM this year, and does appear to be lagging behind in the race to win the shortstop job. The Yankees have been giving him time at second and third base, and plan to work him out in the outfield this spring, which suggests they may view him as more of a utility player at this point. Yet the team already has the highly impressive Oswaldo Cabrera capable of bouncing round the diamond as a utility option, and he’ll only earn the league minimum in 2023.

Now, with the Yankees dealing with rotation, bullpen and outfield injuries to Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Tommy Kahnle and Harrison Bader, it would make some sense for the team to deal from their infield depth to address other areas. According to Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the Yankees have had conversations with the Dodgers and Rockies over Kiner-Falefa. It’s not known the exact timeline or extent of those conversations, but it’s worth noting the Dodgers checked in on Kiner-Falefa early in the off-season prior to acquiring Miguel Rojas from the Marlins.

General manager Brian Cashman addressed the trade market to reporters, and while he didn’t specifically name Kiner-Falefa (or any other infielders), he certainly didn’t close the door on a deal involving their infielders before the start of the regular season.

“I would say typically trade conversations usually are a bit more serious in the second part of camp than the first part. I do know that’s an area of strength for this franchise right now in real time. So if somebody is looking for help, we wouldn’t be surprised if they’re knocking on our door,” Cashman said.

A trade could help them address their thinning rotation and bullpen stock, but even with Bader on the shelf for a while, it doesn’t appear the outfield is a pressing need. As Kuty notes in a separate piece, Bader’s injury likely means a temporary return to center field for Aaron Judge. That would allow the Yankees to give Giancarlo Stanton more at bats in right field, with Cabrera and Aaron Hicks likely to handle left. Rafael Ortega and Estevan Florial are other candidates to fill in with Bader out, but it appears Hicks – a career center fielder who moved to left last year – is not among them, with Kuty noting it seems the Yankees prefer to keep him in left.

Speaking of Judge, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic sheds some more light on the high profile free agency of the new Yankees captain. While it’s been widely reported that the Yankees’ decision to tack on a ninth-year and take the total value of the contract to $360MM sealed the deal, there’s been a little bit of uncertainty over the extent of the Padres late interest in the slugger. According to Rosenthal, the Padres put forward a deal in the range of $415MM over at least 12 years.

Minor MLB Transactions: Pelham, Shore

By Anthony Franco | March 10, 2023 at 10:10pm CDT

A pair of NL West teams recently added some pitching depth via minor league deal:

The Padres agreed to a non-roster pact with southpaw CD Pelham, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The 28-year-old adds some bullpen depth to open the season with Triple-A El Paso. Pelham has ten big league games under his belt, all of which came as a member of the 2018 Rangers. He threw 7 2/3 innings that year, allowing six runs on 12 hits. The South Carolina native has a 5.31 ERA over parts of six minor league campaigns. Pelham spent last season in the Cubs organization, splitting the year between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Iowa. Over 41 1/3 combined frames, he worked to a 4.31 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout percentage and a lofty 14.4% walk rate.
The Giants have added right-hander Logan Shore on a non-roster deal, per the MLB.com transactions log. A University of Florida product, Shore went to the A’s in the second round of the 2016 draft. He was dealt to Detroit as one of two players returned in the 2018 Mike Fiers trade. Shore has spent the past few seasons at the upper levels of the Tigers system but never earned an MLB call. He spent all of last year with Triple-A Toledo, working more out of the bullpen than the rotation for the first time in his career. The 28-year-old struggled to a 5.68 ERA through 52 1/3 frames, striking out a below-average 15.9% of batters faced against a 9.8% walk rate.

Injury Notes: Montas, Musgrove, Hentges, Lux

By Nick Deeds | March 9, 2023 at 9:25am CDT

Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas told reporters yesterday that he expects to pitch in the majors at some point this season, and could begin throwing in about two months (link via MLB.com). Montas, who underwent shoulder surgery two weeks ago, noted that he “wasn’t fully 100%” when the Yankees acquired him from Oakland at the trade deadline last year, though he tried to pitch through the issue. The results of that attempt were rather discouraging, however, as Montas sported a 6.35 ERA, 38% worse than league average by ERA+, with a 4.93 FIP in 39 2/3 innings with the Yankees following the trade, which sent Montas and Lou Trivino to the Bronx in exchange for a four prospect package headlined by left-hander Ken Waldichuk.

The Yankees seem comfortable filling the hole in the rotation left by Montas internally with one of Domingo German or Clarke Schmidt. This hardly comes as a surprise, given the strength of New York’s rotation. During the offseason, the club added ace Carlos Rodon to a rotation that already included Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. Still, it’s certainly good news for the club that Montas expects to return at some point in the second half, as he could give the club a boost down the stretch if able to return to his old form. The right-hander posted a 3.51 ERA (119 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP in 336 innings of work from 2019 to 2021, and had been pitching well in Oakland last year prior to the trade, sporting a 3.18 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.35 FIP through his 104 2/3 innings as a member of the A’s last year.

More injury updates from around the game:

Padres righty Joe Musgrove began throwing off flat ground yesterday, as noted by MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Musgrove has been held back with a fractured big toe on his left foot this spring, and has yet to land on his left foot while throwing, instead keeping both feet rooted to the ground. The Padres, who were planning to go with a six-man rotation to open the season prior to Musgrove’s injury, are surely hoping for his quick return to action, as the right-hander figured to be a key cog at the top of San Diego’s rotation this year alongside Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and recently signed Michael Wacha. Musgrove posted a 2.93 ERA (127 ERA+) with a 3.59 FIP in 181 innings of work last season, earning his first All-Star bid in the process. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $100MM contract extension he signed last summer.
Guardians manager Terry Francona said yesterday that the progress of lefty reliever Sam Hentges, who has been slowed this spring by shoulder inflammation, was “really, really encouraging” (link via MLB.com). Francona notes that Hentges is set to begin doing dry work shortly and that it wouldn’t “be a surprise if he comes [back] quick,” though there’s been no specifics updates to his timetable for return. Hentges was among the best southpaw relievers in the sport last year, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate backing up his sterling 2.32 ERA that clocked in 65% above league average by ERA+. The Guardians shut Hentges down from throwing back on March 1 and said he’d be evaluated on a week-to-week basis.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts noted to reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that shortstop Gavin Lux’s surgery went well. Lux suffered a torn ACL and damage to his LCL while running the bases during an early spring training game, and Roberts indicated that surgery revealed “more than a sprain” in Lux’s LCL — indicating significant damage to two of the 25-year-old’s cruciate ligaments. Lux is expected to miss the entire 2023 season as he rehabs from the surgery, with the Dodgers slated to rely on trade acquisition Miguel Rojas as their primary shortstop. Utilityman Chris Taylor is expected to see occasional time at the position as well.

Mitch Moreland Announces Retirement

By Steve Adams | March 8, 2023 at 10:29am CDT

Twelve-year big league veteran Mitch Moreland didn’t play during the 2022 season, and the 37-year-old confirmed to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that his days as a player are now behind him. “I’m retired,” Moreland said, noting that he’s enjoyed being able to spend the past year-plus with his family. Bradford adds that Moreland is currently in Red Sox camp to work with some younger players after getting an invite from chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and manager Alex Cora.

Selected by the Rangers in the 17th round of the 2007 draft, Moreland was in the big leagues just over three years later, making a strong impression with a .255/.364/.469 slash and nine homers in 173 plate appearances as a rookie. That strong showing set the stage for a torrid postseason effort in which a then 24-year-old Moreland batted .348/.400/.500 with a homer and four doubles, helping Texas advance to the World Series, where they fell to the Giants in a 4-1 series loss.

From that point forth, Moreland was entrenched as a big leaguer. He logged regular time in each of the next 11 seasons, serving as a slick-fielding, righty-mashing slugger in the middle of the order for the Rangers, Red Sox and — more briefly — Padres and Athletics. Along the way, Moreland won a Gold Glove for his work at first base with the Rangers and secured an All-Star nod with the Red Sox, who signed him as a free agent prior to the 2017 season and twice re-signed him in free agency — first for two years (2018-19) and then for another one-year deal (2020).

The 2018 season was a big one for Moreland not only due to his All-Star selection but also from a big-picture standpoint; while Moreland’s Rangers fell shy in consecutive World Series appearances in 2010-11, he reached the Fall Classic for a third time with the ’18 Red Sox and this time captured the championship that had twice eluded him in the past. As with the 2010 Rangers, Moreland played a big role in the Red Sox’ postseason success that year, slashing .294/.368/.529 in 19 plate appearances. That included a pinch-hit, three-run bomb at Dodger Stadium in the seventh inning of Game 4 of the World Series — a blast that jumpstarted a late-inning rally which saw Boston score nine runs en route to a comeback victory (video).

The Red Sox wound up trading Moreland to the Padres for a pair of prospects (Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario) during the shortened 2020 season. He scuffled through a small sample of 73 plate appearances before again heating up in the postseason, where he went 4-for-8 with a double. Moreland inked a one-year deal with Oakland that offseason but was limited to 82 games by ribcage and wrist injuries.

That proved to be the final season of Moreland’s playing career, and while it may not have ended with a flourish, it’s easy to look back and see a successful career — particularly for a 17th-round pick. Moreland retires as a lifetime .251/.318/.446 hitter in the regular season. He slugged 186 home runs, 219 doubles and nine triples along the way, while piling up 1,020 hits, 527 runs scored and 618 runs batted in. As previously mentioned, he won a Gold Glove and was named to the American League All-Star team. Between his solid arbitration numbers and a quartet of free-agent contracts, Moreland made about $36MM in salary over the course of his 12 seasons in the Majors.

And, while many players go the majority of their career without sniffing the postseason, Moreland’s teams reached the playoffs in an incredible eight of his 12 big league seasons. He added on another 150 plate appearances over the life of 52 postseason games, batting .259/.329/.422 during that time. Congratulations to Moreland on a fine career, and best wishes in whatever lies ahead in his post-playing days.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat With Former MLB Catcher Gary Bennett

By Tim Dierkes | March 7, 2023 at 10:03am CDT

Former MLB catcher Gary Bennett chatted with MLBTR readers for more than two hours this morning. Click here to read the transcript and learn more about Bennett below:

Gary Bennett was drafted by the Phillies in the 11th round in 1990 out of Waukegan East High School. His MLB career began with a single plate appearance more than five years later, when he pinch-hit for the Phils against David Wells. His first big league home run came in 1999, at the age of 27.

In July of 2001, Bennett was traded to the Mets for Todd Pratt. A year later, he was dealt to the Rockies.

It was in 2002, at the age of 30, that Bennett landed regular work in the Majors, serving as Colorado’s primary catcher. He then signed a free agent deal with the Padres, leading their ’03 club in innings caught. After the ’03 season, Bennett signed as a free agent with the Brewers. He served as the backup to Chad Moeller that year.

On to the Nationals in ’05, Bennett’s life as a big league mercenary catcher continued, this time with Damian Miller as his counterpart.

Bennett moved to the Cardinals for the ’06 season, working behind Yadier Molina. The Cards beat the Tigers in five games in the World Series that year, and Bennett earned a ring. The Cardinals retained Bennett for ’07, providing some rare continuity, after which he closed out his career with the Dodgers.

In the end, Bennett spent over 4,200 innings in the Majors behind the dish, catching pitchers such as Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, and Adam Wainwright. He also hit a homer off Sheets at one point, taking Dontrelle Willis and many others deep as well. Memorable moments included walk-offs on back-to-back days against the Cubs in ’06 – one a single and the other a grand slam.

In 2007, Bennett was one of the players named in the Mitchell Report. He owned up to his use of human growth hormone, later telling Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “It was unethical, cheating, taking performance enhancement stuff.”

After Gary’s playing days wrapped up, he became a partner in a training academy called Slammers Baseball. Other ventures have included medical device sales, real estate, and non-profit foundations such as CASA Lake County and Science of Sport. The Bennetts also have three kids, one of whom played baseball at Mizzou and another currently playing at Illinois. You can follow Gary on Twitter @gdbjr5.

Gary offered to chat with MLBTR readers, and we’re happy to have him! Click here to join the live chat.

If you’re a current or former MLB player and would like to do a one-hour chat on MLBTR, please contact us!

NL West Notes: Rockies, Conforto, Padres

By Steve Adams | March 3, 2023 at 10:54am CDT

As the Rockies brace for potentially unwelcome news on both second baseman Brendan Rodgers and lefty Lucas Gilbreath, they’re perhaps already giving fans a preview of one contingency plan. With Rodgers out indefinitely and possibly facing season-ending surgery, Colorado is deploying third baseman Ryan McMahon at second base today and giving former top prospect Elehuris Montero the start at third base. This is obviously just one permutation that the lineup could take if Rodgers is indeed lost for the season, as there are alternate options at both third base (Kris Bryant, Nolan Jones) and at second base (Alan Trejo). Non-roster invitee Harold Castro can play both spots (though defensive metrics view his glovework at both positions in a negative light). Rodgers was going for a second opinion on his shoulder yesterday after reportedly receiving an initial recommendation of surgery. The Rox should have further updates on his status before long.

Padres Likely To Explore Extension Talks With Josh Hader, Juan Soto This Spring

By Anthony Franco | March 2, 2023 at 11:57pm CDT

The Padres achieved their top priority of the spring over the weekend, agreeing to an 11-year, $350MM deal with Manny Machado to keep him from retesting the free agent market next offseason. That came on the heels of a summer deal for Joe Musgrove and a recent extension with Yu Darvish.

Even after that series of transactions, the Friars have a handful of key players slated to hit the open market within the next two years. Last summer’s marquee deadline acquisitions — Josh Hader and Juan Soto — are both deep into their arbitration seasons. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that San Diego is likely to soon be in contact with both players’ camps to discuss possible extension frameworks. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote this week the Friars were likely to take a run at extension talks with Soto.

There hasn’t been as much speculation regarding possible Hader negotiations. It’s not a surprise that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office plan to at least check in with the four-time All-Star, though. Hader is one season away from the open market and joins Blake Snell as the top impending free agents on the San Diego roster.

29 next month, Hader has a chance of securing a record-setting deal for a reliever. He owns a sterling 2.71 ERA with an eye-popping 43.2% strikeout rate over parts of six big league campaigns. No pitcher (minimum 200 innings) has punched out hitters at a higher rate since Hader came into the league. He’s three percentage points clear of second-place finisher Edwin Díaz. Hader also leads the league in SIERA (2.13) and swinging strike percentage (19.2%) over that stretch.

Díaz is second in both those categories as well. The Mets’ closer became the first reliever in league history to top the hundred million dollar mark this offseason, returning to Queens on a five-year, $102MM pact days before free agency opened. Díaz signed that deal in advance of his age-29 campaign and coming off one of the most dominant seasons by a closer in recent memory. He fanned more than half his opponents en route to a 1.31 ERA in 62 innings.

Hader, on the other hand, is coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine, including a disappointing 7.31 mark in 19 appearances after the Padres acquired him from Milwaukee. Hader was a bit homer-prone early in the season with the Brewers. While he got that under control in San Diego, his walk rate jumped a few percentage points towards year’s end.

Despite that wobbly conclusion, Hader still enters extension negotiations with strong leverage. He’ll play the upcoming season on a hefty $14.1MM contract after avoiding arbitration. The lanky southpaw remains one of the sport’s highest-upside relief weapons. Even in his relative down year, Hader finished sixth among relievers who threw 50+ innings with a 37% strikeout rate. He placed 18th in swinging strike rate and averaged a personal-high 97.4 MPH on his sinker.

Hader’s youth and career résumé still position him as the favorite for the largest contract among relievers in next winter’s class. Díaz’s deal serves as a reference for the kind of money Hader could land if he had a vintage platform season. The New York righty had some ups and downs in the years leading up to 2022 — including a 5.59 ERA in 2019 and a fine but not overwhelming 3.45 mark in ’21 — before reaching new heights last season.

Considering his hefty arbitration salaries and proximity to free agency, Hader isn’t under pressure to sign for below-market rates this spring. He told Heyman he’d “definitely” be open to extension talks but didn’t offer any indication he’d take a hometown discount. “It’s a great place to be, but at the end of the day, business is business,” Hader said.

Locking up Soto would be an even more challenging endeavor, of course. The three-time Silver Slugger is playing this season on a $23MM arbitration contract. He’s likely to approach or top $30MM for his final arbitration season in 2024 and is trending towards free agency over the 2024-25 offseason. Soto would hit the market before his age-26 campaign and is generally expected to command the largest guarantee in league history (although the intervening potential free agency of Shohei Ohtani could first set a new high-water mark).

Soto has already declined an offer for what would’ve been the largest deal in MLB history. The Nationals reportedly offered a 15-year, $440MM pact last summer. Soto passed, leading Washington to pivot to trade discussions that’d eventually culminate in one of the biggest deadline deals ever. Soto’s performance in San Diego after the trade — .238/.388/.390 with more walks than strikeouts through 228 plate appearances — was disappointing by his massive standards but still markedly above average.

It stands to reason the Padres would at least have to beat the $440MM the Nats were prepared to offer in order to convince Soto to bypass a trip to the open market. How high he and his representatives are aiming isn’t clear, though Soto told Heyman his camp is “open to talking” with San Diego brass. However, he also added that “every player wants to get a try at free agency and a chance to decide where they want to go and where is best for their family.”

The Padres project for the third-highest luxury tax payroll in the majors this season, with Roster Resource forecasting them just under $275MM at present. Long-term deals for Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish and Robert Suarez already have upwards of $130MM on the books through 2027. Tatis, Bogaerts and Machado alone will count for nearly $100MM annually between 2028-33. That’s plenty of future money tied up, though it also reinforces how willing owner Peter Seidler and the front office have been to commit to star talent.

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