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Jacob Nix

Jacob Nix Will Attempt To Rehab UCL Injury

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Padres righty Jacob Nix has decided not to undergo Tommy John surgery at the present, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. Rather, he’ll attempt to rehab back from what is described as a small tear of his ulnar collateral ligament.

It’s always good to hear that there’s a possible non-surgical path back from an injury to that area. TJ procedures are remarkably effective at giving pitchers a new lease on life, but they generally come with a year-plus recovery timeline and hardly guarantee a full return to pre-surgery ability levels.

The 23-year-old Nix has already had a circuitous path to the majors, so he’ll no doubt be relieved that there’s a possibility he’ll avoid another lengthy detour. Back in 2014, he was slated to sign an over-slot deal to join the Astros organization, but that fell apart as part of the Brady Aiken saga.

Nix landed with the Friars in the third round of the following year’s draft and moved steadily up the ladder thereafter. He turned in ten sparkling upper-minors outings in 2018, working to a 1.84 ERA with 44 strikeouts and nine walks over 58 2/3 innings, before getting his first call to the bigs.

While he was knocked around in his first taste of the majors, Nix entered camp this year with a shot at earning another look. The elbow woes eliminated that possibility, but he could still get back into the mix later this season if he’s able to progress through the rehab program.

Padres’ Jacob Nix Diagnosed With UCL Damage

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10:30pm: The Padres are currently terming Nix’s injury a “low-grade UCL sprain,” per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (Twitter link). The current plan is six to eight weeks of rest before he resumes a throwing program, though the second opinion he receives from Dr. ElAttrache will impact the ultimate course of action.

7:40pm: Padres right-hander Jacob Nix has a “small” tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. He’ll be evaluated by Dr. Neal ElAttrache before determining whether to undergo surgery. Depending on the extent of the tear, Nix could opt for a non-surgical route — platelet-rich plasma and stem cell injections are sometimes prescribed for UCL tears — though the mention of any degree of UCL tear immediately brings Tommy John surgery to mind.

At the very least, Nix’s injury takes him out of consideration for a rotation spot at any point in the early portion of the 2019 season. He’s one of numerous young Padres arms viewed as potential long-term options in the rotation, a rough 2018 MLB debut notwithstanding. Last season, Nix reached the Majors at the age of 22 but was tattooed for a 7.02 ERA in 42 1/3 innings — a marked departure from the 2.05 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 he logged in 52 2/3 innings of Double-A ball.

Even with Nix sidelined indefinitely, the Padres have a promising group of young arms on which to build. Joey Lucchesi established himself as a viable MLB starter last season, while prospect Chris Paddack has turned heads with a brilliant spring to date (to say nothing of his top 100 prospect billing and excellent minor league numbers in 2018). Lefties Matt Strahm, Eric Lauer and Logan Allen could start games for San Diego early in the season, as could Robbie Erlin — the de facto “elder statesman” of the group (though he’s just 28 years of age himself). Beyond that grouping is another wave of pitching talent featuring names like Cal Quantrill, Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon and MacKenzie Gore, giving the Friars a wealth of pitching depth that few organizations can match.

Injury Notes: Harper, Castellanos, Foltynewicz, Senzatela, Nix

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With each bump and bruise this time of year comes the potential for missed time during the regular season, perhaps especially so for those late signees getting delayed starts to their Spring Training. As Opening Day fast approaches, let’s get the lowdown on a few injury reports from camp…

Latest Updates

  • Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela has an infected blister on his right heel and will be out “a while,” per manager Bud Black (via the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders). Senzatela, 24, was competing for the final spot in Colorado’s rotation with Chad Bettis, who now appears to have the role on lock. The Venezuelan-born righty had made just eight starts above the high-A level before opening the 2017 season with the team, and again played a major role in the club’s wild card-run last season. His fastball-heavy repertoire is devoid, at this point, of a true swing-and-miss pitch, so perhaps the 6’1 righty could indeed use further minor league seasoning. Still, despite some sophomore regression, Senzatela’s been reasonably effective thus far in his young MLB career, and the Rockies are almost certain to require his services at some point this season.
  • Padres righty Jacob Nix has been shut down with right arm soreness, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Nix, 23, shares with Senzatela the same allergy to missing bats, but was a legitimate candidate for the fifth spot in a wide-open San Diego rotation. Once the victim of a too-clever Astros draft scheme, in which the team agreed to terms with the young righty but was forced to renege after a bonus-pool shortage resulting from the Brady Aiken fiasco, Nix has long flashed top-of-the-rotation tools but struggled with consistency. Last season’s debut was a disaster: the 6’5 righty was torched to the tune of a 7.02 ERA/5.83 FIP with 8 HRs allowed in just 42 1/3 IP. He, too, is due for a longer minors simmer, having made just one start above the AA level in his young career thus far.

Earlier Reports

  • Bryce Harper is day-to-day with ankle swelling, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Harper was hit by a pinch in yesterday’s Phillies game, though even by this morning the swelling had reduced. All tests came back negative, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter), while a number of reporters quote manager Gabe Kapler as projecting confidence in Bryce’s ability to be ready by Opening Day. All in all, this appears to be much ado about nothing, but as is the case with any injury, it’s worth tracking for aftereffect. Due to the late date of his signing, Harper has seen limited action in spring thus far, going 0-5 with three strikeouts, three walks, and a stolen base, though the focus here is obviously not yet on production. The Phillies season opens less than two weeks from today with their home opener against the Braves on Thursday, March 28th.
  • Tigers presumptive right fielder Nick Castellanos remains out of the lineup for the time being, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter). Castellanos is likely to return to Grapefruit League play within a couple of days. He was seen taking batting practice in the cage today and at least provided cursory affirmation that tests on his bruised left hand revealed no significant damage, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). Castellanos has been bandied about often here at MLBTR this winter as a trade candidate, which appears likely to continue as there have been no extension talks between the right-handed slugger and the club.
  • The Braves may be without their ace until “mid/late April,” per the Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Mike Foltynewicz has missed most of Spring Training with a sore elbow after a breakout season. Folty was stellar in 2018 as he went 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA (3.37 FIP) over 183 frames. There was much speculation about the Braves bolstering their rotation this winter, either via free agency or by bundling their prospects in a trade, but they mostly hung tight despite losing Anibal Sanchez – who enjoyed a different variety of 2018 breakout – to the rival Nationals. The Braves have plenty of depth to cover, but much of their standing pat must have been predicated on a healthy Folynewicz leading the charge again in 2019. Atlanta will lean on Julio Teheran, Kevin Gausman, and Sean Newcomb to hold down the fort until Folty’s return.

Padres Designate Phil Hughes, Select Jacob Nix

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The Padres announced that they have designated right-hander Phil Hughes for assignment. He’ll step aside in favor of young starter Jacob Nix, whose contract was selected.

Acquired earlier in the season in a swap that netted the Friars an extra draft choice, Hughes struggled quite a bit during his brief time in San Diego. In 16 appearances, the former starter allowed 14 earned runs on thirty base hits — including seven long balls.

Hughes did manage 24 strikeouts against just five walks in his 20 2/3 innings with the Pads, but he has missed bats less than he has missed barrels when opposing hitters have made contact. On the season as a whole, the 32-year-old is allowing a whopping 54.1% hard-hit rate. Indeed, Statcast even suggests Hughes has been fortunate, charging him with a .454 xwOBA-against that dwarfs the (already-hefty) .404 wOBA figure that batters have actually produced.

Needless to say, a run of recent injuries has taken quite a toll on a pitcher who had reemerged with the Twins after ending his tenure with the Yankees. Under the terms of the agreement that brought Hughes to the Padres, the organization is responsible for $7.25MM of the remaining salary owed to the righty under his extension with the Twins. The Minnesota org is still on the hook for a chunk of the $13.2MM he’s playing for this year and the balance of the same amount for 2019. While the Twins’ obligations are fixed, the Padres can still save some cash (albeit only a pro-rated portion of the league minimum salary) if Hughes ends up pitching for another club.

Nix was also a high-school star in California, but he’s ten years Hughes’s junior. He famously saw a deal with the Astros torn up when they failed to sign 1-1 pick Brady Aiken back in 2014, though he reached a settlement with Houston and ended up back in the draft in the ensuing winter. Nix went to the Padres in the third round.

Now in his third full season as a professional, Nix has taken a step forward in the results department. Though he has been limited to ten starts in the upper minors this year due to injury, his most recent outing was his first at the Triple-A level. Through 58 2/3 innings in 2018, Nix has allowed just 39 base hits and owns a sparkling 1.84 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9.

Padres To Promote Jacob Nix

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According to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, the Padres plan to promote Jacob Nix, and he’ll be making his major-league debut this week. Robert Murray of The Athletic confirmed the news today thanks to his own source.

Nix, 22, is perhaps best known for suffering the collateral damage of the fallout between Brady Aiken and the Astros following the 2014 amateur draft. After the club failed to come to an agreement with Aiken, the number one overall selection, they didn’t have the leftover draft pool money necessary to sign Nix (their fifth-round selection) on the terms they’d originally had in place with him. Ultimately, the two were unable to reach a new agreement, and the right-hander re-entered the draft the following season. He ultimately ended up signing with the Padres after they selected him in the third round of the 2015 draft.

Since then, Nix has risen quickly through the minor-league ranks. Through his first three professional seasons, he met limited resistance despite unspectacular strikeout rates and an average ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio, posting FIP figures south of four at each level of the minor leagues. Though a groin strain delayed his start to the 2018 season, the righty went on to post a 2.05 ERA across nine starts with the Friars’ Double-A affiliate. He twirled a scoreless outing at Triple-A as well, and the club evidently feels he’s ready to help their depleted rotation at the major-league level.

MLB Pipeline ranked Nix as the Padres’ 14th-best prospect in their most recent rankings. The publication praises his ability to generate easy velocity by way of a “fluid delivery and smooth arm action” that allows him to touch 97 MPH on the radar gun. They also describe his curveball as a second plus pitch, but adds the disclaimer that his inability to miss bats could hold him back at the major-league level. His ceiling looks to be that of a number three starter, according to MLB Pipeline, though they do believe he’ll stick in the majors; his floor is described as that of a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Padres To Sign Jacob Nix

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The Padres have agreed to terms with righty Jacob Nix on a $900K signing bonus, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. The 86th choice in the draft came with a $687,300 pick value, meaning that San Diego went over $200K over slot to add Nix.

Of course, Nix thought he had an even larger bonus locked up last year with the Astros, before he was caught up in the Brady Aiken saga. He ultimately landed at IMG Academy for a year and brought a grievance action against Houston (reportedly settling for a six-figure payout).

Now advised by MVP Sports, Nix drew plenty of top-forty pre-draft ratings. Keith Law of ESPN.com was highest on Nix, rating him the 32nd-best player available and saying he has mid-rotation starter upside. Baseball America and MLB.com concurred that Nix had back of first-round talent, while Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs dropped Nix to 81st on his list.

Prospect Notes: Turner, Draft Updates, Cuba

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The Nationals can finalize their acquisition of Padres shortstop Trea Turner as soon as June 14, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. Turner, the widely-reported player to be named later in the deal that delivered Wil Myers to San Diego — with the Nationals giving up Steven Souza (to the Rays) and also picking up righty Joe Ross — has remained with the Padres organization under the since-changed rules regarding drafted players. The 21-year-old owns a .322/.389/.478 slash with five home runs and ten steals in 231 plate appearances at Double-A.

  • Several notable names have come off the board early on day two of the draft. Duke righty Michael Matuella went to the Rangers with the third pick of the third round (78th overall). Not long after, the Padres took fellow right-hander Jacob Nix, whom the Astros were unable to sign last year after their deal with top pick Brady Aiken fell through. And the Nationals grabbed Mariano Rivera Jr. with the 134th choice.
  • Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs offers his thoughts on yesterday’s draft proceedings, explaining that it is premature to judge the Marlins harshly at this juncture for choosing young slugger Josh Naylor in the first round (much higher than most pundits had him rated). After all, as McDaniel rightly notes, the supposed “value” of a pick will never be as important in the long run as the simple fact of whether that player develops and produces, and at some point teams simply have to take guys they believe in when they can get them. Check out the piece for Kiley’s views on the clubs that chose well on the draft’s first day.
  • Amateur players come to clubs through the draft and the international signing market, of course, making comparison difficult. Ben Badler of Baseball America discusses the latest news and analysis on the Cuban market, providing a helpful guide on several notable names by assigning them a rough (and entirely hypothetical) draft value. Notably, Badler does not share the optimism that some have expressed regarding righty Yadier Alvarez and, in particular, outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez.

Draft Links: Best Remaining, Matuella, Day One Analysis

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Last night, we watched as the first two rounds of this year’s Rule 4 draft hit the books. We tracked the first 42 picks (here and here), but of course another 33 choices were made after that. You can find the complete results of the first day at MLB.com.

Here are some links to check out as we look back at yesterday and look forward to the rest of the draft:

  • Baseball America lists the best players still available, which includes names like high school righties Donny Everett and Dakota Chalmers as well as former Astros pick Jacob Nix.
  • The most intriguing player still on the board, perhaps, is Duke starter Michael Matuella, who was at one point regarded as a possible 1-1 selection but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the season and has dealt with other injury issues. It has to be considered at least possible at this point that he’ll return to college for his senior year; indeed, he acknowledged as much recently, as Laura Keeley of the Charlotte Observer reported. “That’s definitely an option I’m evaluating,” said Matuella. “I’m hoping a good opportunity presents itself. I really haven’t come up with a certain [draft round] cutoff. I’ll evaluate it case by case and see if there’s a good opportunity for me.” Of course, it would not be surprising to see a team with a large bonus pool take a shot on him today.
  • Diamondbacks scouting director Deric Ladnier says that the club has been locked in on first overall pick Dansby Swanson for some time, as Teddy Cahill of Baseball America writes in breaking down the first day of the draft. “This is the player we wanted,” said Ladnier. “We wanted him for a while.”
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that Houston saw second overall pick Alex Bregman (LSU) as a “no-brainer” of a selection, noting that the club believes Bregman is plenty capable of sticking at short. The team’s top baseball man noted that he’s not worried about the possibility of a future infield logjam. “The good thing about having guys at the premium positions is … their fall-back is to play another position,” said Luhnow.
  • It goes without saying, really, that it’s too early to evaluate the results of day one, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com compares the Astros’ haul to their 2012 draft in terms of the volume of premium talent. Houston made plenty of noise yesterday — as might have been expected given its league-high bonus pool — in adding highly-regarded high school outfielders Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron to go with Bregman. Heyman also notes that the Dodgers seemingly achieved good value in nabbing righties Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser with the 24th and 35th selections.
  • Jim Callis of MLB.com pegs the Blue Jays’ selection of Missouri State righty Jon Harris (29th overall) and the Rockies’ choice of high school hurler Mike Nikorak (at 27) as two of the best three picks, joining Cameron. The biggest suprise, per Callis, was the Marlins’ decision to grab young first baseman Josh Naylor in the 12th slot.
  • As a reminder, MLBTR’s draft primer contains links to many essential draft materials.

Quick Hits: Ruth, Slowey, Nix, Cuba

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Babe Ruth pioneered many things in baseball, of course, and one lesser-known among them came in the insurance arena, as Richard Sandomir writes for the New York Times. Before the 1920 campaign, Ruth took out a disability policy of the kind that is now standard for players looking to protect themselves from injury or illness.

Here are some more stray notes from around the game:

  • 31-year-old righty Kevin Slowey has joined the MLBPA as a special assistant, per a press release. He’ll assist in the union’s preparations for the coming collective bargaining negotiations. Slowey, who spent the spring in Phillies camp, has appeared in the big leagues with the Twins and Marlins. All said, he compiled 662 innings of 4.62 ERA pitching, striking out 6.7 and walking 1.5 batters per nine along the way.
  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today spoke with Jacob Nix, the righty who saw his deal with the Astros fall through last year as part of the Brady Aiken fallout. Nix explains that he has tried to stay positive, but did not sugarcoat the difficulties he faced. “Last year pretty much sucked,” said Nix. “I was literally in the wrong place and the wrong time. It was a bad situation. The whole year was pretty difficult for myself and for my family.” Houston ultimately offered Nix a $620K bonus after pulling back the $1.5MM deal that had been struck, says Nightengale, but he declined. Nix was set to attend UCLA — even driving out to the campus — but ultimately ended up at the IMG Academy as eligibility issues loomed due to the NCAA’s rules (which are, in my view, remarkably unfair). While winning a grievance against the Astros that “paid him a fraction of his original signing bonus,” Nix says he also pushed his development on the mound and is now a much more complete pitcher entering this year’s draft. The whole piece is well worth a read and comes highly recommended.
  • Exhibition baseball is likely heading to Cuba next year, as commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters yesterday, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). The expectation is that clubs chosen by the league will head to the neighboring island during Spring Training.

West Notes: Nix, Walker, Olson, Garcia, Bradley

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Late last night, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle followed up on his report that the Astros’ exact draft pool is unknown because two players after the 10th round received bonuses north of $100K. Per Drellich, 14th-round pick Nick Tanielu and 15th-round pick Connor Goedert each received bonuses of $200K — $100K above slot for each of them. As such, Drellich writes in a separate piece that the team’s final $616,165 offer to fifth-rounder Jacob Nix was virtually every dollar they had available to offer without losing future draft picks.

Here’s more from the game’s Western divisions…

  • Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon confirmed to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune that both right-hander Taijuan Walker and left-hander Tyler Olson have made the team’s Opening Day roster (Twitter link). Walker’s inclusion on the 25-man roster is significant, as with 142 days of service time under his belt, he’ll almost certainly be a Super Two player two offseasons from now. The 25-year-old Olson, on the other hand, was in camp as a non-roster invite and will need to be added to the 40-man roster.
  • Freddy Garcia’s Minor League contract with the Dodgers does contain an opt-out clause, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, although the exact date of that opt-out remains unknown. Also pertaining to Garcia, Han Lee of Global Sports Integration has passed along Garcia’s Taiwanese stats to MLBTR. The veteran righty pitched to an 11-9 record with a 3.19 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 BB/9 and a 1.19 WHIP in 161 innings of work while pitching overseas in 2014.
  • Though the D-Backs have named their starting rotation, Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic writes that Archie Bradley has been so impressive that the Snakes may have to re-think at the last minute. Bradley fired six shutout innings Wednesday, including 5 2/3 no-hit innings, and after the game, manager Chip Hale told reporters: “We’ve named our five, but he’s pushed the envelope all the way down to the last possible chance he had. He’s looked great. We’ll have to sit down and evaluate everything.” Bradley could also begin his first full season in the Majors in a bullpen role, serving as a long man to get acclimated with the big leagues, Hale indicated.

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