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Jacob Nix

Quick Hits: Nix, JBJ, Alfaro

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Padres minor league piitchers Jacob Nix and Tom Cosgrove were arrested on criminal trespassing charges Sunday in Peoria, Ariz., after Nix allegedly entered a home through a dog door, per Jessica Suerth of 12 News. The homeowner caught Nix trying to break in at 3:30 a.m. and kicked him in the face, at which point Cosgrove reached into the dog door in an attempt to get Nix out. The homeowner then hit Nix in the torso with a Taser as he and Cosgrove tried to flee the premises. The police found Nix and Cosgrove at a different home about 10 minutes away and took them into custody. Nix was ordered to post a $100 bond and appear in court Oct. 14, while Cosgrove was ordered to post a $50 bond. Cosgrove appeared in court on Tuesday. This bizarre story looks like the biggest professional setback yet for the 23-year-old Nix, a promising prospect who missed most of 2019 with damage in his right ulnar collateral ligament. Nix, who joined the Padres as a third-round pick in 2015, ranks as their 28th-best farmhand at MLB.com.

Now for some more conventional items from around the league…

  • With the Red Sox set to embark on a payroll-cutting campaign this offseason, center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. could wind up on the outs, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic observes (subscription link). “You always think about it,” Bradley told McCaffrey in regards to a potential trade, adding, “It’s one of those things you just have to wait and see what happens.” Trade rumors centering on Bradley aren’t anything new, but no other club has convinced Boston to move him yet. However, the soon-to-be 30-year-old’s team control is dwindling – he’ll be a free agent after next season – while his salary is rising. Bradley’s projected to earn $11MM in 2020, and that could be too rich for the Red Sox’s blood in the wake of a modest season for JBJ. He totaled just 1.4 fWAR, his lowest since 2014, while hitting .225/.317/.421 with 21 home runs, eight stolen bases across 567 plate appearances. Although Bradley’s offensive output in 2019 wasn’t much different than the production he posted over the prior two seasons, his defensive numbers fell off, as he notched both a negative DRS (minus-1) and UZR (minus-0.7) for the first time since 2013.
  • While Jorge Alfaro will go into next season as the front-runner to start at catcher for the Marlins, they’ll at least “explore” adding depth at the position this winter, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes. Alfaro, whom the Marlins acquired from the Phillies as part of last offseason’s J.T. Realmuto blockbuster, batted .262/.312/.425 with 18 homers over 465 plate appearances during his first season in Miami. Those are acceptable offensive numbers from a catcher, though it’s troubling that Alfaro struck out in at least 33 percent of PA for the second year in a row. Defensively, the cannon-armed 26-year-old did throw out 33 percent of would-be base-stealers, but he struggled in the framing and blocking aspects.

 

NL West Injury Notes: Muncy, Ray, Padres, Dickerson

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Max Muncy’s wrist fracture wasn’t thought to be an overly serious injury, and the Dodgers infielder is now aiming to be back on the field on Friday when Los Angeles begins a series against the Mets.  As Muncy told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter links) and other reporters, he felt “better than I expected” after taking regular swings in the batting cage today.  Needless to say, the Dodgers will be careful with their slugger’s progress, as there’s no urgency to get Muncy back in immediate fashion since the team is running away with the NL West.  Still, it’s an excellent sign that Muncy has seemingly avoided what initially looked like a season-threatening injury.

More from around the division…

  • A blister issue forced Robbie Ray to leave during the fifth inning of the Diamondbacks’ win over the Reds on Friday, though he told media (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that the removal was somewhat precautionary, as the blister hadn’t actually formed.  As a result, Ray feels he’ll be able to make his next scheduled start.  Ray didn’t want to leave the game but “at that point I’ve got to look at the bigger picture.  It’s tough, but you understand it’s the right thing to do.”  With the red-hot D’Backs on a run of 11 wins in their last 12 games, Ray (now the rotation’s veteran stalwart in the wake of the Zack Greinke trade) certainly wants to remain able to contribute to the team’s push for a wild card berth.
  • Franchy Cordero has suffered another setback while rehabbing a quad injury, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Padres manager Andy Green told Sanders and other media members that Cordero’s bothersome left leg “just doesn’t feel as explosive as the other leg,” and that Cordero has “been slowed down to hopefully ramp him up again in a couple days, but I think we know where the clock is on this season. It’s ticking. I don’t know if he or isn’t going to get back.”  Elbow and quad problems have limited Cordero to only nine games in 2019, and since Green said that the club’s priority is to get Cordero healthy for the offseason, the outfielder likely won’t be brought back for a few token appearances if there’s any hint he might not be 100 percent.
  • In more promising Padres health news, Green is hopeful that both Garrett Richards and Jacob Nix will be able to get onto a Major League mound before the 2019 campaign is out.  Richards is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, while Nix has been working through a small UCL tear in an attempt to avoid his own TJ procedure.
  • Alex Dickerson has missed the Giants’ last four games due to a right oblique injury, and the outfielder will miss more time after receiving a cortisone shot, manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area).  There isn’t yet indication that Dickerson could miss the season’s final few weeks, though this is the second time in Dickerson’s brief San Francisco tenure that he has been slowed by a right oblique injury — he spent two weeks on the IL in August due to a strain.  When Dickerson has been able to play, he has something of a revelation, hitting .308/.374/.579 with six homers over 147 plate appearances in a Giants uniform.  This has put him into the mix for regular outfield duty in 2020, though as Bochy noted, the club would like to get some more evaluation time on Dickerson before the season is out.

Pitcher Notes: Doolittle, Nix, Lindblom

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Though manager Dave Martinez has maintained that he will regain his closer’s role when he returns from the injured list, Nationals reliever Sean Doolittle isn’t taking anything for granted, as shown in a profile from the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty. “I mean that’s awesome to get that vote of confidence from your manager. But I have to pitch better if I want to stay in that role,” Doolittle told Dougherty on Monday. Of course, it’s probably the proper attitude for the veteran lefty to assume after a recent run of poor play–outlined by a 7.36 ERA in his last 15 appearances–culminated in his placement on the injured list on Sunday with right knee tendinitis. While watching video of his last outing, a three-homer drubbing at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers, Doolittle says he has identified several mechanical concerns that could be the cause of his struggles, including a low release point and shortened extension.

More hurler notes to keep handy this Tuesday…

  • Jacob Nix of the Padres is grinding his way back from an elbow issue that has sidelined him for the entirety of the 2019 season, as noted in a column from Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune. After opting for rest and rehab in recovery from a UCL tear, Nix has climbed back up to Triple-A El Paso, where, on Monday, he struck out six hitters in five shutout innings. The 23-year-old Nix, a third-round draft pick of GM AJ Preller’s in 2015, debuted last year with 7.02 ERA, 4.46 K/9, and 2.76 BB/9 numbers across 42.1 innings. As you might expect regarding someone with such a shaky big league resumé, manager Andy Green indicates to Sanders that Nix’s return will be, in the writer’s words, “predicated on his results”.
  • You would be forgiven for not recognizing the name of one Josh Lindblom, but that exact name is drawing a great deal of attention in Korea–and, increasingly, in MLB circles. As The Athletic’s Sung Min Kim points out (link), MLB scouts have been attending the KBO starts of Lindblom in droves as the former big league reliever makes a historic foreign run. A veteran of 114 MLB games, the 32-year-old Lindblom is trouncing KBO hitters in his quest for the all-time record for wins by a foreign pitcher (22) in one season. In 24 starts for the Doosan Bears, Lindblom is 19-1 with a 2.03 ERA–truly intriguing numbers for a pitcher operating in such a hitter-friendly environment. Lindblom hasn’t appeared stateside since pitching for a stint with the Pirates in 2017.

Jacob Nix Will Attempt To Rehab UCL Injury

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Padres righty Jacob Nix has decided not to undergo Tommy John surgery at the present, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. Rather, he’ll attempt to rehab back from what is described as a small tear of his ulnar collateral ligament.

It’s always good to hear that there’s a possible non-surgical path back from an injury to that area. TJ procedures are remarkably effective at giving pitchers a new lease on life, but they generally come with a year-plus recovery timeline and hardly guarantee a full return to pre-surgery ability levels.

The 23-year-old Nix has already had a circuitous path to the majors, so he’ll no doubt be relieved that there’s a possibility he’ll avoid another lengthy detour. Back in 2014, he was slated to sign an over-slot deal to join the Astros organization, but that fell apart as part of the Brady Aiken saga.

Nix landed with the Friars in the third round of the following year’s draft and moved steadily up the ladder thereafter. He turned in ten sparkling upper-minors outings in 2018, working to a 1.84 ERA with 44 strikeouts and nine walks over 58 2/3 innings, before getting his first call to the bigs.

While he was knocked around in his first taste of the majors, Nix entered camp this year with a shot at earning another look. The elbow woes eliminated that possibility, but he could still get back into the mix later this season if he’s able to progress through the rehab program.

Padres’ Jacob Nix Diagnosed With UCL Damage

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10:30pm: The Padres are currently terming Nix’s injury a “low-grade UCL sprain,” per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (Twitter link). The current plan is six to eight weeks of rest before he resumes a throwing program, though the second opinion he receives from Dr. ElAttrache will impact the ultimate course of action.

7:40pm: Padres right-hander Jacob Nix has a “small” tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. He’ll be evaluated by Dr. Neal ElAttrache before determining whether to undergo surgery. Depending on the extent of the tear, Nix could opt for a non-surgical route — platelet-rich plasma and stem cell injections are sometimes prescribed for UCL tears — though the mention of any degree of UCL tear immediately brings Tommy John surgery to mind.

At the very least, Nix’s injury takes him out of consideration for a rotation spot at any point in the early portion of the 2019 season. He’s one of numerous young Padres arms viewed as potential long-term options in the rotation, a rough 2018 MLB debut notwithstanding. Last season, Nix reached the Majors at the age of 22 but was tattooed for a 7.02 ERA in 42 1/3 innings — a marked departure from the 2.05 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 he logged in 52 2/3 innings of Double-A ball.

Even with Nix sidelined indefinitely, the Padres have a promising group of young arms on which to build. Joey Lucchesi established himself as a viable MLB starter last season, while prospect Chris Paddack has turned heads with a brilliant spring to date (to say nothing of his top 100 prospect billing and excellent minor league numbers in 2018). Lefties Matt Strahm, Eric Lauer and Logan Allen could start games for San Diego early in the season, as could Robbie Erlin — the de facto “elder statesman” of the group (though he’s just 28 years of age himself). Beyond that grouping is another wave of pitching talent featuring names like Cal Quantrill, Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon and MacKenzie Gore, giving the Friars a wealth of pitching depth that few organizations can match.

Injury Notes: Harper, Castellanos, Foltynewicz, Senzatela, Nix

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With each bump and bruise this time of year comes the potential for missed time during the regular season, perhaps especially so for those late signees getting delayed starts to their Spring Training. As Opening Day fast approaches, let’s get the lowdown on a few injury reports from camp…

Latest Updates

  • Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela has an infected blister on his right heel and will be out “a while,” per manager Bud Black (via the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders). Senzatela, 24, was competing for the final spot in Colorado’s rotation with Chad Bettis, who now appears to have the role on lock. The Venezuelan-born righty had made just eight starts above the high-A level before opening the 2017 season with the team, and again played a major role in the club’s wild card-run last season. His fastball-heavy repertoire is devoid, at this point, of a true swing-and-miss pitch, so perhaps the 6’1 righty could indeed use further minor league seasoning. Still, despite some sophomore regression, Senzatela’s been reasonably effective thus far in his young MLB career, and the Rockies are almost certain to require his services at some point this season.
  • Padres righty Jacob Nix has been shut down with right arm soreness, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Nix, 23, shares with Senzatela the same allergy to missing bats, but was a legitimate candidate for the fifth spot in a wide-open San Diego rotation. Once the victim of a too-clever Astros draft scheme, in which the team agreed to terms with the young righty but was forced to renege after a bonus-pool shortage resulting from the Brady Aiken fiasco, Nix has long flashed top-of-the-rotation tools but struggled with consistency. Last season’s debut was a disaster: the 6’5 righty was torched to the tune of a 7.02 ERA/5.83 FIP with 8 HRs allowed in just 42 1/3 IP. He, too, is due for a longer minors simmer, having made just one start above the AA level in his young career thus far.

Earlier Reports

  • Bryce Harper is day-to-day with ankle swelling, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Harper was hit by a pinch in yesterday’s Phillies game, though even by this morning the swelling had reduced. All tests came back negative, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter), while a number of reporters quote manager Gabe Kapler as projecting confidence in Bryce’s ability to be ready by Opening Day. All in all, this appears to be much ado about nothing, but as is the case with any injury, it’s worth tracking for aftereffect. Due to the late date of his signing, Harper has seen limited action in spring thus far, going 0-5 with three strikeouts, three walks, and a stolen base, though the focus here is obviously not yet on production. The Phillies season opens less than two weeks from today with their home opener against the Braves on Thursday, March 28th.
  • Tigers presumptive right fielder Nick Castellanos remains out of the lineup for the time being, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter). Castellanos is likely to return to Grapefruit League play within a couple of days. He was seen taking batting practice in the cage today and at least provided cursory affirmation that tests on his bruised left hand revealed no significant damage, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). Castellanos has been bandied about often here at MLBTR this winter as a trade candidate, which appears likely to continue as there have been no extension talks between the right-handed slugger and the club.
  • The Braves may be without their ace until “mid/late April,” per the Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Mike Foltynewicz has missed most of Spring Training with a sore elbow after a breakout season. Folty was stellar in 2018 as he went 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA (3.37 FIP) over 183 frames. There was much speculation about the Braves bolstering their rotation this winter, either via free agency or by bundling their prospects in a trade, but they mostly hung tight despite losing Anibal Sanchez – who enjoyed a different variety of 2018 breakout – to the rival Nationals. The Braves have plenty of depth to cover, but much of their standing pat must have been predicated on a healthy Folynewicz leading the charge again in 2019. Atlanta will lean on Julio Teheran, Kevin Gausman, and Sean Newcomb to hold down the fort until Folty’s return.

Padres Designate Phil Hughes, Select Jacob Nix

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The Padres announced that they have designated right-hander Phil Hughes for assignment. He’ll step aside in favor of young starter Jacob Nix, whose contract was selected.

Acquired earlier in the season in a swap that netted the Friars an extra draft choice, Hughes struggled quite a bit during his brief time in San Diego. In 16 appearances, the former starter allowed 14 earned runs on thirty base hits — including seven long balls.

Hughes did manage 24 strikeouts against just five walks in his 20 2/3 innings with the Pads, but he has missed bats less than he has missed barrels when opposing hitters have made contact. On the season as a whole, the 32-year-old is allowing a whopping 54.1% hard-hit rate. Indeed, Statcast even suggests Hughes has been fortunate, charging him with a .454 xwOBA-against that dwarfs the (already-hefty) .404 wOBA figure that batters have actually produced.

Needless to say, a run of recent injuries has taken quite a toll on a pitcher who had reemerged with the Twins after ending his tenure with the Yankees. Under the terms of the agreement that brought Hughes to the Padres, the organization is responsible for $7.25MM of the remaining salary owed to the righty under his extension with the Twins. The Minnesota org is still on the hook for a chunk of the $13.2MM he’s playing for this year and the balance of the same amount for 2019. While the Twins’ obligations are fixed, the Padres can still save some cash (albeit only a pro-rated portion of the league minimum salary) if Hughes ends up pitching for another club.

Nix was also a high-school star in California, but he’s ten years Hughes’s junior. He famously saw a deal with the Astros torn up when they failed to sign 1-1 pick Brady Aiken back in 2014, though he reached a settlement with Houston and ended up back in the draft in the ensuing winter. Nix went to the Padres in the third round.

Now in his third full season as a professional, Nix has taken a step forward in the results department. Though he has been limited to ten starts in the upper minors this year due to injury, his most recent outing was his first at the Triple-A level. Through 58 2/3 innings in 2018, Nix has allowed just 39 base hits and owns a sparkling 1.84 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9.

Padres To Promote Jacob Nix

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According to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, the Padres plan to promote Jacob Nix, and he’ll be making his major-league debut this week. Robert Murray of The Athletic confirmed the news today thanks to his own source.

Nix, 22, is perhaps best known for suffering the collateral damage of the fallout between Brady Aiken and the Astros following the 2014 amateur draft. After the club failed to come to an agreement with Aiken, the number one overall selection, they didn’t have the leftover draft pool money necessary to sign Nix (their fifth-round selection) on the terms they’d originally had in place with him. Ultimately, the two were unable to reach a new agreement, and the right-hander re-entered the draft the following season. He ultimately ended up signing with the Padres after they selected him in the third round of the 2015 draft.

Since then, Nix has risen quickly through the minor-league ranks. Through his first three professional seasons, he met limited resistance despite unspectacular strikeout rates and an average ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio, posting FIP figures south of four at each level of the minor leagues. Though a groin strain delayed his start to the 2018 season, the righty went on to post a 2.05 ERA across nine starts with the Friars’ Double-A affiliate. He twirled a scoreless outing at Triple-A as well, and the club evidently feels he’s ready to help their depleted rotation at the major-league level.

MLB Pipeline ranked Nix as the Padres’ 14th-best prospect in their most recent rankings. The publication praises his ability to generate easy velocity by way of a “fluid delivery and smooth arm action” that allows him to touch 97 MPH on the radar gun. They also describe his curveball as a second plus pitch, but adds the disclaimer that his inability to miss bats could hold him back at the major-league level. His ceiling looks to be that of a number three starter, according to MLB Pipeline, though they do believe he’ll stick in the majors; his floor is described as that of a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Padres To Sign Jacob Nix

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The Padres have agreed to terms with righty Jacob Nix on a $900K signing bonus, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. The 86th choice in the draft came with a $687,300 pick value, meaning that San Diego went over $200K over slot to add Nix.

Of course, Nix thought he had an even larger bonus locked up last year with the Astros, before he was caught up in the Brady Aiken saga. He ultimately landed at IMG Academy for a year and brought a grievance action against Houston (reportedly settling for a six-figure payout).

Now advised by MVP Sports, Nix drew plenty of top-forty pre-draft ratings. Keith Law of ESPN.com was highest on Nix, rating him the 32nd-best player available and saying he has mid-rotation starter upside. Baseball America and MLB.com concurred that Nix had back of first-round talent, while Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs dropped Nix to 81st on his list.

Prospect Notes: Turner, Draft Updates, Cuba

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The Nationals can finalize their acquisition of Padres shortstop Trea Turner as soon as June 14, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. Turner, the widely-reported player to be named later in the deal that delivered Wil Myers to San Diego — with the Nationals giving up Steven Souza (to the Rays) and also picking up righty Joe Ross — has remained with the Padres organization under the since-changed rules regarding drafted players. The 21-year-old owns a .322/.389/.478 slash with five home runs and ten steals in 231 plate appearances at Double-A.

  • Several notable names have come off the board early on day two of the draft. Duke righty Michael Matuella went to the Rangers with the third pick of the third round (78th overall). Not long after, the Padres took fellow right-hander Jacob Nix, whom the Astros were unable to sign last year after their deal with top pick Brady Aiken fell through. And the Nationals grabbed Mariano Rivera Jr. with the 134th choice.
  • Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs offers his thoughts on yesterday’s draft proceedings, explaining that it is premature to judge the Marlins harshly at this juncture for choosing young slugger Josh Naylor in the first round (much higher than most pundits had him rated). After all, as McDaniel rightly notes, the supposed “value” of a pick will never be as important in the long run as the simple fact of whether that player develops and produces, and at some point teams simply have to take guys they believe in when they can get them. Check out the piece for Kiley’s views on the clubs that chose well on the draft’s first day.
  • Amateur players come to clubs through the draft and the international signing market, of course, making comparison difficult. Ben Badler of Baseball America discusses the latest news and analysis on the Cuban market, providing a helpful guide on several notable names by assigning them a rough (and entirely hypothetical) draft value. Notably, Badler does not share the optimism that some have expressed regarding righty Yadier Alvarez and, in particular, outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez.

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