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Examining The Yankees’ 2021 Payroll Situation

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The Yankees 2020 season was a success by most measures – except for the 2nd-place finish behind Tampa Bay. The Rays took them out in the postseason as well, which was particularly galling with a payroll that (for a full season) floated around $265MM. The Rays, by contrast, fielded a payroll of around $73MM. As opposed to the old days, when the Yankees division rivalry with the Red Sox might prompt a spending spree to put them over the top, the Rays pose a new kind of threat. The Yankees cannot delude themselves into thinking their loss in 2020 has anything at all to do with money. The Yankees have to explore the possibility of doing more with less.

If there’s a model for the Yankees to mimic, it’s the Dodgers more so than the Rays. Though, considering that Andrew Friedman – the architect of these Dodgers – came from the Rays, one could argue that modeling oneself after the Dodgers is mimicking the Rays. The Yankees – lest we forget – are no slouches themselves when it comes to roster construction. Besides, it’s not any easier to become the Rays overnight than it is to become the Yankees overnight. Still, signs point to the Yankees facing a dramatic cut in payroll, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Sherman suggests the Yankees will want to steer clear of exceeding the $210MM luxury tax line, which means taking a significant step back payroll-wise. Making it easier for GM Brian Cashman will be a whole slew of contracts coming off the books: James Paxton ($12.5MM), Masahiro Tanaka ($23MM), DJ LeMahieu ($12MM), J.A. Happ ($17MM), Jacoby Ellsbury ($5MM), and Brett Gardner ($7.5MM).

Taking into account potential arbitration raises, Sherman pegs the Yankees current 2021 payroll to be around $171MM, which leaves probably a little more than $30MM in payroll space if the Yankees do intend to stay south of the luxury tax line. Non-tendering or trading Gary Sanchez would save $5MM, but they would need to fill his roster spot in that case.

Otherwise, they need a middle infielder – or to bring LeMahieu back. If LeMeahieu leaves, they could explore the possibility of finding a glove-first shortstop to shore up the defense while moving Gleyber Torres to second. While it’s not fun to  consider the possibility of losing LeMahieu, they could probably withstand his departure, especially with Clint Frazier looking like a viable starting outfielder. Not to diminish LeMahieu’s importance – he is the batting champ, after all – but the Yankees would otherwise return most of a crew that scored the 4th-most runs in the majors in 2020.

As much as the Yankees like LeMahieu, they have greater need in the rotation – and the money crunch is real. If Tanaka were to, say, accept a qualifying offer, their available money gets cut in half pretty quickly. LeMahieu, meanwhile, is looking at a contract that nets him $20MM per season, if MLBTR readers are to be believed.

Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Deivi Garcia, Jordan Montgomery, Clarke Schmidt, and Domingo German provides manager Aaron Boone with a better group of rotation arms than many teams have, but they’re largely unproven (or coming off lost seasons in the case of Severino/German). Especially returning to a full 162-game season, depth is key in the rotation, a lesson Yankees’ fans know well. Without any additions, the Yankees would lean heavily on Cole for the second consecutive season. As good as he was this year, he can’t win a pennant all his own.

All that said, there could be some real bargains on the free agent market this winter. It’s an offseason unlike any we’ve ever seen before. With teams planning to cut payroll almost across the board because of the revenue losses caused by the pandemic, it’s hard to pinpoint any specific club that’s definitely going to spend big money. New York could explore moving some of their committed money – like the $13MM owed to Zack Britton and his 1.89 ERA in his final season on the books – but again, given the revenue losses all across baseball, there aren’t likely to be a lot of places to dump payroll.

Yankees Notes: Sanchez, Montgomery

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Currently tied at one win apiece, the Yankees and Rays will meet for Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday. New York won’t have Gary Sanchez behind the plate, as it benched him in favor of Kyle Higashioka after an 0-for-4, three-strikeout performance in Game 2, Marly Rivera of ESPN was among those to report. And it doesn’t appear Sanchez will have a stranglehold on the position going forward. Rather, manager Aaron Boone said the situation’s “day to day.”

This is the second time in the series the Yankees have sat Sanchez in favor of the typically light-hitting Higashioka, who has taken over as ace and Game 1 starter Gerrit Cole’s personal catcher. The Yankees are slated to pitch Masahiro Tanaka on Wednesday, but Higashioka will nonetheless don the tools of ignorance.

Considering the torrid pace he was on earlier in his career, which started in earnest in 2016, it’s a surprise Sanchez is no longer the Yankees’ easy choice at catcher. He was an excellent hitter through 2017, but his numbers declined significantly the next year before a bounce-back 2019 effort. However, the 27-year-old could only manage a .147/.253/.365 line with 10 home runs in 178 plate appearances during the 2020 regular season. Behind the plate, Sanchez threw out a league-average 26 percent of would-be base stealers but only finished in the 39th percentile in the framing category, per Statcast, and he led the AL in passed balls for the third time in four years.

Regardless of how this season ends for the World Series hopeful Yankees, it’ll be interesting to see whether they continue to place their faith in Sanchez, who has two years of arbitration eligibility left. The lone slam dunk improvement over Sanchez on the free-agent market will be the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto, who should easily exceed $100MM on his contract. The Yankees do have the financial might to sign him if they’re dissatisfied with Sanchez, though.

For now, it remains to be seen whether Sanchez will start again in this series, but if he’s back in the lineup in Game 4, he’ll work with left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Boone said Montgomery, who had a rough time keeping runs off the board in the regular season, will take the ball in that contest, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic relays.

Yankees Place Tommy Kahnle On IL, Recall Jordan Montgomery

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9:20pm: Kahnle will “likely” require Tommy John surgery, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

5:03pm: The Yankees have announced a pair of roster moves in advance of tonight’s game. Righty Tommy Kahnle was moved to the 10-day injured list with what the team termed a “right ulnar collateral ligament injury.” He’ll be replaced by southpaw Jordan Montgomery.

That’s a worrisome addition to earlier news on Kahnle, who had previously been described as suffering from forearm tightness. The reliever was slated to undergo an MRI and visit team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad.

Soon to turn 31, Kahnle had seemed primed to occupy an important role in the Yanks’ pen in 2020. After a rough 2018 showing, he bounced back last season by throwing 61 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with 12.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

Montgomery is moving in precisely the other direction. The 27-year-old has been limited to eight appearances over the past two seasons owing to Tommy John surgery. He’s now hoping to regain the promising trajectory he was on before the elbow woes arose.

Yankees Option Jordan Montgomery, Select Contracts Of Avilan, Iannetta, Hale

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In a surprising move, the Yankees announced Tuesday that they’ve optioned lefty Jordan Montgomery to the team’s alternate site in Scranton. The Yanks also selected the contracts of non-roster veterans Luis Avilan, Chris Iannetta and David Hale.

New York also announced that non-roster righty Dan Otero has been placed on the restricted list. Meanwhile, each of Matt Duffy, Estevan Florial, Deivi Garcia, Zack Granite, Erik Kratz, Brooks Kriske, Tyler Lyons, Nick Nelson, Clarke Schmidt, Nick Tropeano, Miguel Yajure and Tony Zych has been reassigned to the team’s alternate site.

Montgomery, 27, seemed like a lock for a rotation spot to begin the season. It seems likely that he’ll be called back to the big leagues in short order, but it seems that the Yankees will roll out Gerrit Cole, James Paxton and a either Mike King or a bullpen game in their first three contests. Manager Aaron Boone indicated as much today an added that J.A. Happ is expected to start the fourth game (Twitter link via WFAN’s Sweeny Murti), so Montgomery may not join the club until its second trip through the rotation. An off-day should allow Cole to start the team’s fifth game.

Avilan, 31, has a strong big league track record but stumbled to a 5.06 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 32 frames with the Mets last year. That forced him to settle for a minor league deal over the winter, but Avilan has a career 3.28 ERA and 3.41 FIP with averages of 8.1 strikeouts, 3.5 walks and 0.5 home runs per nine innings pitched. He’s held opposing lefties to a putrid .203/.280/.283 slash since his 2012 MLB debut and has held righties in check reasonably well: .259/.340/.374.

The 37-year-old Iannetta gives the Yankees a third catcher behind Gary Sanchez and Kyle Higashioka early in the season when rosters are expanded to 30 players. The 14-year veteran hasn’t hit particularly well in recent seasons but has a long track record of quality on-base percentages thanks to a gaudy 13.5 percent walk rate in his career. Iannetta posted a .254/.354/.511 slash in 316 plate appearances as recently as 2017, but his two-year reunion with his original club, the Rockies, didn’t go well; in 524 plate appearances over the past two seasons in Colorado, Iannetta hit .223/.335/.395 (85 OPS+, 80 wRC+).

Hale’s boomerang act with the Yankees is well-documented by this point. He’s signed a ridiculous five minor league contracts with the Yankees since Jan. 2018 and, despite being jettisoned from the roster so many times, fared quite well. Hale has racked up 48 1/3 innings across his scattered stints in the Bronx and, amid constant roster uncertainty, pitched to a strong 2.98 ERA with a 29-to-8 K/BB ratio. He’s plenty capable of working in multi-inning stints, which should prove particularly valuable early in the year as the club both manages workloads and apparently tinkers with the occasional opener/bullpen game.

AL Notes: Yankees’ Rotation, Royals, Perez

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Some notes on the Yankees and Royals to kick off Sunday morning:

  • Jordan Montgomery is the “overwhelming favorite” for the fourth spot in the Yankees’ rotation, notes George King III of the New York Post. That’s not especially surprising, given that the lefty’s Tommy John procedure is now 21 months behind him. The 27-year-old’s strong 2017 rookie season positions him well to step up in the wake of injuries to Luis Severino and James Paxton. The final spot in the rotation is still entirely up for grabs, although King feels Jonathan Loaisiga is the early frontrunner. Surprisingly, King notes that right-hander Clarke Schmidt could be in the fifth starter mix after turning some heads early in spring training. The 24-year-old was the Yankees’ first-round pick out of the University of South Carolina in 2017, but he’s made all of three career starts above High-A, thanks largely to rehab from a Tommy John of his own. That, coupled with Schmidt’s roster status (he needn’t be added to the 40-man until after this season), would seem to make him a long shot for a season-opening role.
  • One pitcher who might not be as strong a contender for the Yankees’ final rotation spot is Luis Cessa, whom King says the club “seemingly likes…in the bullpen.” That jibes with a similar report from Bryan Hoch of MLB.com earlier this week, although Hoch’s report came before news broke of Severino’s season-ending Tommy John surgery. From the outside, it appeared that blow could have changed the calculus on Cessa’s potential usage, but it seems he’s still more likely to occupy a bullpen role in 2020. The 27-year-old has started 19 of his 86 career MLB appearances, but he was used exclusively as a reliever in 2019.
  • Salvador Pérez logged four innings behind the plate in the Royals’ spring training game Friday (h/t to the Associated Press). That marked his first catching action since his Tommy John surgery last March. “It was kind of like Opening Day — once you catch the first pitch, it’s a regular game,” Pérez said postgame, via the AP. “I blocked some balls, threw to second base between innings. It was all great.” At last check, the 29-year-old was on track to be ready for Opening Day. In 2018, Pérez hit just .235/.274/.439 (89 wRC+), but he’s long shouldered extremely high workloads behind the plate in Kansas City.

Latest On Yankees’ Rotation

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The Yankees’ rotation looked set when the month of February started, but the back surgery left-hander James Paxton recently underwent threw a wrench in their plans. They’re now lacking an obvious answer after Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. The team will give plenty of hurlers chances to emerge as its No. 5 during spring training, though, as Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relays.

General manager Brian Cashman on Wednesday named five pitchers – Luis Cessa, Deivi Garcia, Jonathan Loaisiga, Michael King and Jordan Montgomery – as candidates to take the last spot in New York’s rotation. The leader may be the 27-year-old Montgomery, who had an impressive rookie campaign in 2017 but hasn’t been much of a factor since then because of injury troubles. Montgomery underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2018 after throwing a mere 27 1/3 innings that year, though he did make a late-season return to a major league mound in 2019. Manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Montgomery’s now “in a good place” with respect to his health.

As for Montgomery’s competition, Cessa and Loaisiga have each garnered a decent amount of experience at the game’s highest level. Cessa’s heater checks in around 95 mph, but it hasn’t led to great results in the majors. He’s the owner of a 4.50 ERA/4.98 FIP with 7.37 K/9 and 2.91 BB/9 in 232 career innings. Most of his work (67 of 86 appearances) has come as a reliever. Cessa is out of minor league options, so he could end up in another organization if he doesn’t make the Yankees this spring.

Loaisiga can throw even harder than Cessa (96-97 mph), and he’s a former top-100 prospect, but his MLB production hasn’t been special, either. While Loaisiga recorded a tremendous strikeout rate of 11.18 per nine in his first 56 1/3 innings as a Yankee from 2018-19, he walked almost five per nine and only registered a 4.79 ERA/4.33 FIP. Moreover, the right-hander dealt with shoulder problems last season.

Neither Garcia nor King has appeared in the majors yet, but there’s plenty of promise in the two cases. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked the 20-year-old Garcia as the game’s 42nd-best prospect Wednesday, calling the 5-foot-10, 163-pounder  “a diminutive firecracker righty with a beautiful curveball.” However, because of his size, there are questions about Garcia’s durability. He also didn’t put up great numbers last year as an extremely young Triple-A pitcher, as he managed a subpar 5.40 ERA/5.77 FIP with 10.13 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 over 40 innings at the level.

King, 24, racked up a combined 62 2/3 innings in Triple-A from 2018-19, pitching to a sterling 2.30 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in that span. He even made a one-appearance MLB debut last season, and currently ranks as the Yankees’ 19th-best prospect at MLB.com.

Considering how volatile the back end of most teams’ rotations are, it’s entirely possible (maybe even likely) that more than one of the above hurlers will start games for the Yankees as they await Paxton’s return. The World Series hopefuls figure to get Paxton back early in the summer, so those who wind up filling his spot could be on borrowed time in that role.

AL East Notes: Yankees’ Rotation, Cobb, Blue Jays

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James Paxton’s back surgery leaves a hole in the Yankees’ rotation, and while the team obviously won’t make any decisions on how to address the vacancy just yet, manager Aaron Boone spoke highly of left-hander Jordan Montgomery when discussing the team’s starting pitching depth (link via George A. King III and Dan Martin of the New York Post). “I think he has proven himself at this level,” Boone said of Montgomery, who posted a 3.88 ERA in 155 1/3 innings back in 2017 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. “For him to get back last year was big, just for his frame of mind. The fact he was able to make it back and get some work done, get into some games, I think was big for him and his mindset moving forward.” All signs point to a spring competition to round out the rotation behind Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees bring in a veteran on a minor league deal, although between Montgomery, Luis Cessa and Jonathan Loaisiga, the Yankees do have three options who’ve at least made some big league starts.

More from the AL East…

  • Orioles righty Alex Cobb is hoping for a healthier 2020 season and has already been throwing off a mound at Orioles minicamp, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The 32-year-old Cobb, who signed a surprising four-year, $57MM deal late in the 2017-18 offseason, has been limited to 164 2/3 innings in Baltimore and hasn’t pitched effectively at all when healthy. A back injury cost him nearly all of the 2019 season — Cobb pitched in just three games last year — and he’s still owed $29MM under that four-year pact. A healthy Cobb would be a boon for a perilously thin rotation mix in Baltimore. Beyond him, the Orioles will lean on lefty John Means, journeyman Asher Wojociechowski and perhaps non-roster invitee Wade Leblanc. Baltimore’s only rotation additions this winter have been Leblanc, Rule 5 pick Brandon Bailey and former Twins prospect Kohl Stewart.
  • The Blue Jays announced yesterday that director of player development Gil Kim will join the Major League coaching staff for the upcoming season. He’ll retain that title as he continues to work with the Jays’ up-and-coming wave of talent in the Major League clubhouse. “We identified an opportunity on the Major League coaching staff that would maximize Gil’s expertise in player development as an obvious asset,” general manager Ross Atkins explained in a release announcing the unorthodox move. “…As the season progresses, Gil’s role as a coach will continue to develop. His previous work to streamline our player development programs, philosophies and systems gives us tremendous confidence that incorporating his leadership and skillset into our Major League coaching staff will be an exciting addition.”

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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Edwin Encarnacion Expects To Return Before End Of Regular Season

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Alarm bells were raised when Yankees slugger Edwin Encarnacion turned up with an oblique strain recently, as a significant version of that injury could easily spell a lengthy absence. But the progress has been so promising that the veteran says he believes he’ll return to the field of play in the next two weeks, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch covers on Twitter.

Encarnacion, 36, says that he’s “feeling better every day.” So long as he continues to ramp up, he ought to have a chance to pick up some plate appearances before the club wraps up play on the 29th. It doesn’t matter much to the Yanks whether they have Encarnacion’s bat in the lineup down the stretch, but the club will certainly hope to have him at full speed in the postseason.

The Yanks still have quite a few interesting potential roster questions to resolve before playoff action gets underway. Giancarlo Stanton joins Encarnacion as a rehabbing righty power bat, with a bevy of other possibilities for roster spots. And the team has a variety of hurlers — Luis Severino, Dellin Betances, Jordan Montgomery — trying to show they’re ready to roll, with other pitchers waiting in the wings.

One of those other key players, Betances, just had his first outing. As Hoch tweets, the power righty was not only happy with the outing — he struck out the two batters he faced — but how he feels the day after. Montgomery’s own season debut wasn’t quite so promising, as he gave up three earned in two innings. Both pitchers worked well below their previously established levels of fastball velocity. Severino will take the ball in the majors tomorrow for the first time this year.

Yankees Designate Ryan Dull; Activate Betances, Montgomery

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The Yankees announced they have designated right-handed reliever Ryan Dull for assignment. That, coupled with the transfer of Jonathan Holder to the 60-day injured list, clears roster space for the previously-reported activations of Dellin Betances and Jordan Mongtomery from the IL.

Betances is the most notable name in today’s series of transactions. The fireballer has missed the entire season to date with a shoulder injury. Notably, he tells Erik Boland of Newsday (via Twitter) that he’s still not up to full strength, although he expressed optimism he’ll be 100% by the end of the regular season. Betances’ progress will be one of the stretch run’s biggest health situations to monitor, as the hulking righty will be elligible for free agency at season’s end, which both player and team surely hope won’t come until after a lengthy postseason run for the soon-to-be AL East champs.

It has been an even longer absence for Montgomery, who hasn’t toed an MLB mound since undergoing Tommy John surgery last June. As a rookie in 2017, Montgomery started 29 games and pitched to a better-than-average 3.88 ERA with solid peripherals. It’ll be interesting to see how the Bombers build him up down the stretch and what role, if any, he’ll play in the postseason.

Those returns to health come at the expense of Dull, a 29 year-old righty. He was blasted in three games as a Yankee, continuing a disappointing season. Dull has never followed up on a 2016 season in which he pitched to a 2.42 ERA in 74.1 innings in Oakland. He does come with one more option year and throws the same 91 MPH fastball he had in his breakthrough effort in the Bay Area, so Dull should still hold some appeal as a depth piece this offseason.

Holder was initially shelved in August with right shoulder inflammation. A longshot to make the Yankees’ postseason roster even when healthy, this almost certainly concludes a trying season for the 26 year-old, who pitched to a 6.31 ERA despite serviceable strikeout (25.4%) and walk (6.1%) rates.

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