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Kirby Yates

Three Years Ago, The Padres Got An Elite Reliever For Nothing

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We just passed the three-year anniversary of a transaction that looked inconsequential at the time but has since turned into one of the finest moves of Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s career.

On April 26, 2017, the Padres took a low-risk flier on reliever Kirby Yates via waivers. Yates had been with the Angels, but they and GM Billy Eppler designated him for assignment just a few days earlier. It was actually the second time that month that the Angels designated Yates, though no one took the bait the first time. That was understandable considering he never did much to stand out in the majors to that point, so you can’t really fault the Angels for cutting ties with him in light of that fact

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote when the Padres claimed the right-hander: “Yates, 30, only made it into one contest for the Halos this year. Over his 98 2/3 total MLB frames since the start of the 2014 season, he owns only a 5.38 ERA.” However, Jeff went on to add, “[Yates] has also generated 10.4 K/9 to go with 3.7 BB/9 in that span and showed career-best fastball velocity (94 mph) in his sole MLB appearance this year.”

And Yates, a 26th-round pick of the Red Sox in 2005, did put up excellent production at the minors’ highest level. Also a former member of the Yankees and Rays in MLB, he caught on with the Padres as the owner of a 2.26 ERA with 12.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 135 2/3 innings in Triple-A. Little did the Padres or anyone else know Yates would soon go on to post even better numbers in San Diego.

While Yates did not manage dominant run prevention figures during his first year as a Padre, he was quite serviceable, giving them 55 2/3 frames of 3.72 ERA/3.50 FIP pitching and fanning a jaw-dropping 14.07 batters per nine (compared to 3.07 BB/9). San Diego clearly had a useful hurler on its hands, and he took it up several notches from there.

Last year was especially incredible for Yates, who fired 60 2/3 innings of 1.19 ERA ball en route to his first All-Star nod and totaled 41 saves in 44 attempts. Yates did not win NL Reliever of the Year honors (that award went to the Brewers’ Josh Hader), but maybe he should have. After all, along with amassing the most saves in the game, he paced all relievers in ERA and FIP, and finished second in fWAR (3.4; only Athletics steal Liam Hendriks was better), third in K/BB ratio (7.77), and fifth in strikeouts per nine (14.98).

So how did Yates, now 33, become such a force? As he explained to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com in 2018, the introduction of a splitter to his repertoire was the turning point.

“The Angels didn’t want me to get away from the slider,” Yates told Cassavell. “I wasn’t necessarily going to get away from the slider, but I was trying to add a third pitch. When I got here, it was, ’We like your split, we want you to throw it more.'”

Yates leaned on the pitch better than 36 percent of the time in ’18 and upward of 41 percent last year. Hitters could only muster a pitiful .182 weighted on-base average/.203 expected wOBA against it in 2019, per Statcast. According to FanGraphs, it has been the most effective pitch of its kind among all relievers since Yates began throwing it. It goes to show that any player, even a scrapheap pickup in his early 30s, might just be one adjustment from stardom.

For Preller, Yates was his second relief addition via waivers to evolve into an all-world bullpen piece. One April earlier, he grabbed Brad Hand from the Marlins (more on that here), and the Padres sold high on him when they sent him to the Indians in 2018. Perhaps Yates will meet a similar fate, or maybe he has already thrown his last pitch as a Padre. He’s scheduled to become a free agent next winter, though the two sides have discussed an extension. No matter where Yates pitches going forward, there’s no doubt he has provided worlds of value to the Padres and put himself in line to cash in on a multiyear contract. Who could have expected that to happen when they scooped him up three years ago?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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NL Notes: Giants, Bumgarner, Bauer, Manfred, Padres, Yates

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The Giants “remain engaged” on franchise legend Madison Bumgarner, according to the last check of the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman (link). Obviously, the word “engaged” can be taken to mean any number of things–ranging from casual contact to protracted negotiation. It is notable, though, that Bumgarner’s longtime team apparently hasn’t been scared off by the increasing amount of competition for his services.

Since November, we’ve heard the Twins, Padres, Dodgers, Reds, White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals all linked to the lefthander to varying degrees. It became clear that MadBum’s reps were seeking something in excess of $100MM after they apparently passed on a reported $70MM-plus offer from Arizona earlier this offseason. Recent ceiling-raising deals for Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole have likely only helped position such a nine-figure contract as a probable outcome.

More Saturday notes from around the NL…

  • Add Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer to those critical of proposed changes from Rob Manfred and the league office. Well, perhaps “critical” doesn’t exactly do Bauer’s Saturday comments justice–perhaps “scorched earth” would be a better descriptor? “At least Rob Manfred is trying to ruin baseball at all levels and isn’t discriminating,” Bauer said on Twitter today. “Something to be said for consistency, I guess.” Bauer then asked followers what their “most hated Rob Manfred idea” was, before following up with a second tweet that characterized Manfred’s proposed changes as a “money grab”. While players should be entitled to their own opinions, it rates as newsworthy to see a public-facing employee criticize a central administrative office so, well, publicly. Whether other players share Bauer’s enmity toward proposed changes–which center around minor league contraction–is an open question.
  • Although it still remains to be seen if his club will make a front-end addition to its pitching staff, Padres GM AJ Preller certainly feels like their Drew Pomeranz addition will help make its bullpen one of MLB’s best. “I think the way Drew pitched at the end of last season, what Kirby’s done the last three years and especially last year, we feel really good about the back part of our bullpen,” Preller said of pairing Pomeranz with closer Kirby Yates, as quoted in an article from Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. Interestingly, Preller also made some comments that, if we’re inclined to close reading, could be seen as something of a statement on Yates’ future with the club. “If that ends up being something that plays out for us over the course of Drew’s four years, and we have lights out back of the bullpen, that would be ideal, honestly,” Preller said. Yates only has one year of control remaining, and extension talks have seemed rather touch-and-go to this point. Preller didn’t mention the Hawaiian by name in the last part of that quote, and his use of the word “ideal” should also be noted; still, it does give some indication of how the team’s top baseball operations mind envisions the club’s pen in future seasons. Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune relayed that the club plans to resume contract talks with Yates after, in Preller’s words, the club gets “a better sense of where we’re at payroll wise, where we’re at roster wise” over the next few weeks.

NL West Rumors: Padres, Marte, D-backs, MadBum, Rox, Marquez

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Continuing an active winter in the San Diego outfield, the Padres have joined the race to acquire Pirates center fielder Starling Marte, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The Padres have already shuffled around their outfield quite a bit this offseason, having added two players (Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham) and subtracted another (Hunter Renfroe). They could get rid of at least one more if a team takes Wil Myers off their hands. The Padres at least tried to pawn Myers off on his first professional team – the Royals – in the clubs’ talks centering on utilityman Whit Merrifield, but KC didn’t bite, according to Scott Miller of Bleacher Report.

More rumblings from the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks “floated” a proposal to Madison Bumgarner that would have promised him something in the realm of $70MM, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. That falls in line with MLBTR’s $72MM prediction (over four years) for Bumgarner, but the highly accomplished 30-year-old has his eyes fixed on a much richer contract. The longtime Giant’s reportedly aiming for a payday in the $100MM range.
  • Teams have inquired about Rockies right-hander German Marquez, but they haven’t shown any willingness to trade him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. It’s neither surprising that other teams covet the strikeout-heavy Marquez nor that the Rockies want to keep him. Before last season, they signed the 24-year-old to a club-friendly extension – one that will see him earn a guaranteed $40.5MM from 2020-23 (including a $2.5MM buyout in ’24).
  • Back in late September, the Padres and lights-out closer Kirby Yates were reportedly discussing an extension. No new deal has come together since, but it appears the two sides will at least make an effort to hammer something out. In regards to a potential extension, Yates told Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune: “I’m always interested. It’s not up to me. When you get to that point, you have the discussions.” Likewise, the Padres are open to it. The club will “start talking to Kirby about his situation for next year” later this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller revealed. The 32-year-old Yates has just one remaining season of arbitration control, in which he’s projected to earn a bargain salary of $6.5MM.
  • The Diamondbacks were already known to have interest free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, and GM Mike Hazen revealed they met with the Japanese standout on Tuesday, per Piecoro.  The Cubs also met with Akiyama’s representatives.

Quick Hits: Mariners, Narvaez, Stewart, Padres, Pomeranz

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Shake off your tryptophan coma with a few quick bursts of baseball-related action…

  • The availability of catcher Omar Narvaez in trade talks can be directly linked to the Mariners’ recent extension with first base prospect Evan White, suggests Greg Johns of MLB.com (link). While that may seem like a logical leap at first glance, White’s forthcoming presence on the club’s major league roster should allow GM Jerry Dipoto to utilize Austin Nola as a backup catcher. Nola, a catcher by trade, was mostly used in combination with Daniel Vogelbach at first last season. Johns also notes that the club’s recent signing of Patrick Wisdom, though minor in nature, gives the club yet another option at first in the event of an injury to White. As explored earlier, the bat-first Narvaez should only look more appealing as a trade target as this offseason progresses; as of Friday, open market catchers Yasmani Grandal, Travis d’Arnaud, Tyler Flowers, and Yan Gomes have all been spoken for.
  • Carter Stewart’s foray into the Nippon Professional Baseball ranks is covered in a recent profile from Jim Halley of Baseball America, with several interesting notes on the youngster’s on-and-off-field adjustments in Japan. Beyond the obvious cultural adjustments that a nineteen-year-old American would face in moving to Japan, Matt Skrmetta, a scout with Stewart’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, relays that the right-hander is currently adapting to the league’s more contact-oriented hitters.  For those who may not remember, the 6’6 Stewart was originally the 8th overall draft pick of the Braves in 2018, although a longstanding wrist injury led the club to only offer him a signing bonus at less than half of the pick’s $4.98MM slot value. The righty spurned that offer and spent a year pitching in the JuCo ranks before a lack of interest at the top of the 2019 draft led Fukuoka to come calling with an unprecedented long-term deal.
  • For the time being, the Padres are penciling in Drew Pomeranz and Kirby Yates as their back-end bullpen options, conveys The Athletic’s Dennis Lin in a recent mailbag. While there were Twitter rumblings this week that Pomeranz’s acquisition only made an offseason trade of Yates more likely, Lin notes that an extension with the 32-year-old Hawaiian is still an entirely plausible scenario. For what it’s worth, Pomeranz and Yates compiled 89.1 innings of a combined 1.41 ERA as relievers last year, potentially setting San Diego out with a thoroughly effective–if pricey–backend. MLBTR projects Yates to receive a $6.5MM award in a final pass through arb, while Pomeranz’s deal included an $8MM signing bonus in advance of a $4MM 2020 salary.

Padres, Kirby Yates Reportedly Discussing Extension

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No one knows who will manage the Padres in 2020, but that individual is in line to inherit one of baseball’s elite closers. The late-blooming Kirby Yates went on an unexpected tear in 2018 and has been even better this season, his age-32 campaign, with a stunning 1.19 ERA/1.31 FIP and 14.98 K/9 against 1.93 BB/9 against 60 2/3 innings. Considering those numbers, it’s no surprise Yates has been almost automatic in save situations, having converted a major league-leading 41 of 44 opportunities.

The utter dominance Yates has exhibited since San Diego claimed him off waivers from the Angels in 2017 has been enough to convince the Padres that they should keep him around for the long haul. The Padres “have begun discussing a contract” with the right-hander’s representatives at Beverly Hills Sports Council, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. It’s unclear whether the sides have made progress in the early stages of their talks, but Yates made it known to Acee that he’s prioritizing his family, the team’s chances of winning and how he’s “going to be valued” as he looks ahead.

“As you get older, you start realizing that if you want to win a World Series you’re running out of time to do it,” said Yates. “I’m going to be 33 years old next year. I want to win a World Series. I’ve never been in a playoff run. I’ve never been in a game in September when games matter going down the stretch being a guy you rely on to make the playoff push. That’s very important to me.”

At 70-86, the Padres have already clinched their ninth straight sub-.500 season and their 13th consecutive year without a playoff berth. With those damning results in mind, no one would blame a championship-oriented player for being reluctant to sign an extension with the club. However, the Padres have enough young talent that they could perhaps be an offseason away from pushing for relevance (that’s likely their front office’s hope at, least). And Yates may have difficulty passing on a sizable multiyear guarantee if one is presented. After all, as Acee points out, he hasn’t been in position to sign a big contract to this point. Yates entered the professional ranks as a 26th-round pick almost a decade and a half ago, going to the Red Sox in 2005, and bounced around a few other organizations before coming into his own in San Diego.

If general manager A.J. Preller doesn’t succeed in locking up Yates, he’ll be on track to play out his final season of arbitration control in 2020. Yates has earned a career-high $3,062,500 salary this year, and with saves being such an important factor in arbitration, his 2019 performance ought to help him to a notable raise if he goes through the process again.

Padres Interested In Extending Kirby Yates

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There has been no shortage of interest this summer in Padres closer Kirby Yates, one of baseball’s top trade chips. It doesn’t appear the Padres are going to move Yates by Wednesday’s deadline, though, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The team instead hopes to extend Yates, who’s in his penultimate year of club control.

Yates has unexpectedly turned into a core Padre and one of the elite relievers in baseball since they claimed him off waivers from the Angels in April 2017. At that point, the right-hander owned a 5.38 ERA across 98 2/3 innings divided among the Rays, Yankees and Angels. With help from the splitter he added to his repertoire upon joining the Padres, Yates has pitched to a stellar 2.38 ERA/2.47 FIP with 13.78 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 and 44 saves on 50 chances over 162 2/3 innings in San Diego.

While Yates was tremendous a year ago, he has found yet another gear this season. Through 44 frames, Yates ranks first among qualified relievers in ERA (1.02) and FIP (1.07), second in K/BB ratio (8.00), third in xFIP (2.12), fourth in K/9 (14.73) and 20th in BB/9 (1.84). Hitters have recorded a matching and feckless .208 weighted on-base average/expected wOBA off Yates, who has converted 31 of 33 save opportunities.

The Padres are likely out of contention this season, Yates is set to play his age-33 campaign in 2020, and relievers are known for their volatility. Those are all arguments for the Padres to sell Yates when his value’s at its zenith, and the fact he’s earning a bargain salary ($3MM-plus) would make an impressive haul easier for them to land. But it looks as if the Padres, hoping to snap their lengthy playoff drought in 2020, will keep Yates and make an effort to reach a new deal with him.

Red Sox Interested In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates

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While Nathan Eovaldi has been slated to become Boston’s closer, the Red Sox continue to monitor the closer market, with MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi (via Twitter) reporting that the Sox have “active interest” in the Blue Jays’ Ken Giles and the Padres’ Kirby Yates.

The bullpen has been seen as a longstanding problem for the Sox dating back to the offseason, when the team seemed content to let Craig Kimbrel leave in free agency and then more or less stand pat with its relief options.  That strategy has resulted in some pretty inconsistent results from the Red Sox pen this season, with Eovaldi’s recent role change seen as a two birds-with-one stone idea that would both help preserve Eovaldi’s elbow and get him back on a mound quicker, and also address Boston’s need for a stable closer.

Of course, Eovaldi has no experience closing games, so it makes sense that the Sox would at least be checking into options like Yates and Giles to see if another move was possible.  That said, there are a lot of obstacles standing in the way of a trade for either closer.  The Jays have a big asking price on Giles, while the Padres would reportedly only trade Yates for “an overwhelming offer.”  Ergo, acquiring either right-hander would require the Sox to dig deep into an already-thin farm system.

In a pure bidding war for young minor leaguers, it seems unlikely that the Sox would be able to outbid most other interested suitors for either Giles or Yates, and their normal financial might (in terms of taking on money to accommodate trades) is limited by the team’s close proximity to the top luxury tax threshold of $246MM.  Neither Giles or Yates are on particularly big salaries, though every dollar counts considering Roster Resource has Boston’s luxury tax number at just under $244MM.

While high-profile trades between division rivals are usually pretty rare, the Red Sox and Blue Jays combined on a notable deal just last summer, when the Sox acquired future World Series MVP from Toronto.  By contrast, one wonders if the Sox could actually have a tougher time completing a trade with the Padres given the controversy that erupted between the two clubs over the Drew Pomeranz deal in July 2016.  That said, San Diego and Boston have combined on one swap since the Pomeranz trade, the relatively minor deal last November that saw Colten Brewer go to the Sox.

If nothing else, Boston’s interest in Giles and Yates indicates that the team still sees itself as a contender and a buyer at the trade deadline.  At this point, however, it seems like the Sox are vying only for a wild card spot, as Boston sits 11 games behind the Yankees in the AL East race.  The Red Sox are three games behind Oakland for the final AL wild card berth, and with a tough road to travel just to get to a one-game playoff, there has been some suggestion (from both the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) that the Sox should consider trading some veterans to unload salary and restock on young talent for another run in 2020.

Boston’s next 14 games are all against either the Yankees or the Rays, with eight of those games coming before the July 31 trade deadline.  Both Abraham and Cotillo cite this upcoming stretch as the potential turning point of the Red Sox season, with Abraham describing the team’s July 29 off-day as “the organization’s deadline to decide whether this season is worth trying to save.”

Trade Candidates: Top 5 Relievers By K/BB Ratio

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On Tuesday, with help from the top 60 trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week, we took a look at the movable starters who have outpaced the rest of the pack in K/BB ratio this season. We’ll do the same here with qualified relievers in advance of the July 31 trade deadline…

Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 7:33

  • Dyson’s just two years removed from being left for dead by the Rangers, who traded him to the Giants for a meager package in 2017. The 31-year-old has revived his career in San Francisco, though, and will garner a far better return this time if the Giants move him this month. Dyson has fanned 8.61 per nine innings against just 1.17 walks, induced grounders at a 55.6 percent clip and notched a nearly identical 2.74 ERA/2.73 FIP in 46 innings. Dyson, who’s on a $5MM salary, also comes with another year of arbitration eligibility.

Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres: K/BB ratio: 7.11

  • Yates is going to be hard to pry out of San Diego. Multiple reports have indicated the Padres are understandably seeking a king’s ransom in return for the 32-year-old. Since the Padres claimed Yates off waivers from the Angels in April 2017, he has evolved into one of the game’s premier relievers. Yates owns a jaw-dropping 1.10 ERA/1.28 FIP with 14.05 K/9 against 1.98 BB/9 over 41 innings this season, and has made good on 30 of 32 save opportunities. Adding to Yates’ appeal, he’s making an affordable sum ($3,062,500) and under arbitration control for another season.

Will Smith, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 6.22

  • There has been widespread interest in Smith, who – along with Dyson – has helped form an imposing late-game setup in San Francisco. Smith has recorded a 2.75 ERA/2.70 FIP with 12.81 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 in 39 1/3 frames, during which he has converted 24 saves on 26 opportunities. Although Smith’s making a reasonable $4.225MM this season, the 30-year-old would be a rental for another team, as he’s due to hit free agency over the winter. Having charged back into the NL wild-card race of late, the Giants might not be locks to move Smith (or their other vets) on paper. However, they’re reportedly planning to sell in the next two weeks despite their recent hot streak. Smith figures to be in another uniform soon, then.

Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays: K/BB ratio: 5.89

  • The 28-year-old Giles has dealt with an elbow issue since last weekend, but indications are it isn’t serious. If true, he should hold plenty of value around the deadline. Not only does he make a fair salary ($6.3MM) and come with another season of arbitration control, but the hard-throwing Giles is enjoying a career campaign. The former Phillie and Astro has registered a stunning 1.45 ERA/1.50 FIP with 15.39 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 in 31 innings. Giles also ranks second among all relievers in swinging-strike percentage (20.4), and has blown just one save in 14 chances.

Tony Watson, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 5.8

  • With three Giants on this list, it’s no wonder president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi seems inclined to sell this month in lieu of taking what would likely be a futile run at a wild-card spot. Plus, at 34, Watson’s not exactly a long-term piece for the club. While Watson, who’s making $3.5MM this season, does have a player option for 2020, it’s likely he’ll decline the $2.5MM guarantee in favor of a trip to free agency over the winter. After all, Watson has logged a 3.03 ERA with 6.75 K/9, 1.16 BB/9 and a career-high 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate across 38 2/3 innings this year. On the other hand, Watson’s strikeout rate is a personal low, he’s allowing more home runs than ever (1.4 per nine) and his 4.35 FIP and 4.42 xFIP aren’t the marks of a late-game force. He’s also having an unexpected amount of trouble against lefties, who have lit him up for a .341/.356/.477 line in 2019. There’s a strong argument for the Giants to sell high on Watson.

Twins Have Shown Interest In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates

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The Twins’ need for bullpen help has been apparent for much of the season, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that they’ve “definitely checked on” a pair of the market’s top options: Blue Jays closer Ken Giles and Padres closer Kirby Yates. Both right-handers are controlled through the 2020 season via arbitration. Neal notes that the Blue Jays and Padres both had scouts on hand to watch the Twins’ Triple-A club recently, as did the Diamondbacks and Pirates (presumably, in addition to multiple other organizations).

Minnesota has seen the division-rival Indians creep back into the divisional picture with a six-game winning streak to close out the first half. The Twins took two out of three from the Rangers to finish out the half and were in position for a potential sweep Sunday. However, the offense couldn’t break a tie before the ’pen allowed a trio of runs in the top of the 11th inning.

Left-hander Taylor Rogers has quietly broken through as one of baseball’s best relievers. He boasts a 1.56 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9 and a 46.9 percent grounder rate in 86 2/3 innings dating back to last June, when he began heavily relying on a slider that transformed his arsenal and perhaps his career. Minnesota has also received strong output from 30-year-old rookie right-hander Ryne Harper.

Looking past that pairing, Tyler Duffey has generally been sharp but has stumbled recently, with runs allowed in three of four outings. Trevor May and Matt Magill are both missing bats at high clips but also issuing far too many walks. Offseason signee Blake Parker has has a solid ERA and 10 saves but is averaging a sky-high 2.03 HR/9 with too many walks himself. He’s unlikely to sustain his 3.77 ERA (5.72 FIP, 4.74 xFIP). Journeyman Mike Morin has a 3.18 ERA in 22 2/3 innings but has only fanned 11 hitters in that time.

Those seven names lead Twins relievers in innings pitched, but Minnesota has utilized another 13 arms out of the ’pen so far in 2019. Most have struggled considerably. Twins relievers do rank either 12th or 13th in the Majors in collective ERA, FIP and xFIP, but it’s been a top-heavy unit that, like any contender’s bullpen, would benefit significantly from another experienced late-inning arm.

Giles, 28, is earning $6.3MM and is arguably in the midst of his best season in the Majors. Through 31 innings, he’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA with a career-high 15.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9. Josh Hader is the only qualified pitcher in baseball with a higher swinging-strike rate than Giles’ ridiculous 20.4 percent mark. Giles also ranks in the top 10 in terms of opponents’ chase rate (39.1 percent) and average fastball velocity (97.3 mph). With the Blue Jays in a rebuild and already well out of playoff contention, he’s among the safest bets to be traded in all of MLB.

Yates, 32, has been even better. The second waiver-claim-turned-relief-ace the Padres have unearthed in the past couple of seasons, Yates erupted as one baseball’s premier relievers upon adopting a splitter that ranks as one of the game’s most effective offerings. He’s recorded video-game numbers so far in 2019, with a 1.15 ERA, 13.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9 and a 48 percent grounder rate. He’s being paid at an even more affordable $3.0625MM rate in 2019, but San Diego, unlike Toronto, is firmly in the postseason picture. The Padres are an insurmountable 14 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but sit just two games out of a Wild Card spot. Reports have indicated that the Padres would need an “overwhelming offer” or “unforeseen haul” in order to move Yates.

It stands to reason that the Twins have checked in far more relievers than just these two, of course. Twins brass has surely checked in on the majority of relievers publicly known to be available — and quite likely several that don’t stand out as readily apparent trade candidates. It’s perhaps of some note that both players listed are controlled beyond the 2019 campaign, though Minnesota has also been connected to Giants closer Will Smith — a free agent at season’s end. If the Twins do prefer relievers controlled through at least 2020, some other options would include San Francisco’s Sam Dyson (profiled here last Friday), Detroit’s Shane Greene, Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, Seattle’s Roenis Elias and Kansas City’s Ian Kennedy.

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