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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Dodgers, Dylan Floro Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers and right-handed reliever Dylan Floro have avoided arbitration with a $975K agreement, Robert Murray of FanSided tweets. MLBTR projected that Floro would make anywhere from $900K to $1.2MM in arbitration.

[RELATED: MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker]

Floro, a 13th-round pick of the Rays in 2012, bounced around among a few teams earlier in his career before finding a home in Los Angeles. The Dodgers first acquired Floro on waivers from the Cubs in 2017, but they lost him when the Reds claimed him before the 2018 season. However, LA re-acquired Floro from Cincinnati in a July 2018 trade that has paid off for the Dodgers.

As a member of the Dodgers, Floro has managed a 3.10 ERA/3.68 SIERA in 98 2/3 innings, thanks in no small part to an ability to induce grounders (52.7 percent) and limit walks (7.1 percent). He posted a 2.59 ERA with career bests in grounders (56 percent) and walks (4.1 percent) in 24 1/3 frames last year.

Dodgers, Corey Knebel Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with right-hander Corey Knebel, agreeing to a one-year deal worth $5.25MM, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). It’s a slight bump from last year’s $5.125MM salary for the Excel Sports client. This is Knebel’s final year of arbitration eligibility, as he’ll be a free agent following the 2021 campaign.

[Related: MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker]

Los Angeles acquired Knebel, 29, from the Brewers in a buzzer-beating trade before MLB’s tender deadline earlier in the offseason. Milwaukee had been set to non-tender Knebel before finding a last-minute taker in the Dodgers, who agreed to send a player to be named later in return. Minor league lefty Leo Crawford was traded to the Brewers once the Rule 5 Draft had passed, completing the deal.

Knebel struggled in 2020, his first season back after undergoing Tommy John surgery in early 2019.  Beyond an unsightly 6.08 ERA in 13 1/3 innings, there were plenty of red flags for Knebel in 2020 — most notably a 94.4 mph average fastball velocity that sat three miles per hour shy of its 2017 peak. However, Knebel’s velocity ticked upward late in the season, which could have been enough to give the Dodgers hope that he’ll regain some of the life on his heater next year when he’s another season removed from surgery.

From 2017-18 with the Brewers, Knebel racked up 55 saves while pitching to a 2.54 ERA and identical 2.54 SIERA over the course of 131 1/3 innings. Along the way he emerged as one of the game’s premier strikeout artists, punching out a ridiculous 40.2 percent of the hitters he faced. With the Dodgers, he’ll join a late-inning mix featuring Kenley Jansen, young flamethrower Brusdar Graterol and the recently re-signed Blake Treinen.

Pitching Notes: Soria, Zimmermann, Sale, Price, LeBlanc

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It seems veteran hurler Joakim Soria is drawing quite a lot of interest from the American League West. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Angels, Astros, Athletics, and Rangers are all pursuing Soria to some degree. Of course, most teams could stand to add an experienced late-inning reliever coming off of a quality season, so it stands to reason that just about every club in a competitive division would give a look. Soria, 36, registered a strong 2.82 ERA last year in Oakland, though that’s hardly a determinative measure on its own for a reliever in a shortened season. The well-traveled hurler managed only a 9.6% swinging-strike rate, his lowest in quite some time, and suddenly shifted to being a heavy flyball pitcher (though he wasn’t punished with many home runs in the short sample).

More from the pitching market:

  • After wrapping up a greatly disappointing tenure with the Tigers, Jordan Zimmermann is taking quite a different free agent journey than his first one. It’s fair to wonder whether he’d consider retiring, but the 34-year-old tells MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link) that he’s instead preparing for another campaign. Zimmermann is sure to draw interest, but not on a guaranteed big-league pact. He has largely been ineffective since coming to Detroit five seasons back and is now also recovering from a forearm injury.
  • The Red Sox could soon get a good sense of the return timeline for star lefty Chris Sale. Per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter), Sale is expected to throw from a mound at some point in the next two weeks or so — if all goes as planned. It’s promising that he’s already nearing that milestone, having undergone his Tommy John procedure at the end of March of 2020. It is hard to imagine that Sale will be ready for the start of the season, but perhaps he could resume competitive pitching relatively early in the 2021 campaign.
  • Also on his way back is Sale’s former teammate David Price. He posted a video on Twitter showing that he’s hard at work preparing for the upcoming season. The Dodgers will surely be interested to see how the ball is coming out of the once-great lefty’s hand after a long respite. Price, who was acquired in a blockbuster nearly one year ago, has yet to take the ball with his new team. He opted out of the 2020 season.
  • Teams looking for a spot starter and long reliever will soon have another option to consider. Southpaw Wade LeBlanc is still plugging away despite suffering a tough elbow injury last year. Per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link), LeBlanc is in good enough form that he’s now preparing for a showcase. LeBlanc posted a resurgent 2018 season but has struggled more recently, so he’s sure to land a non-guaranteed deal when he does sign.

Latest On DJ LeMahieu’s Market

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The stalemate between the Yankees and DJ LeMahieu isn’t showing any signs of ending, and it may have opened the door for other teams to re-enter the hunt.  According to Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown, LeMahieu has “asked his representatives to re-engage with teams that have previously shown the most interest…and to reconnect with teams that reached out early in the free agent period.”

This group includes at least six teams — the Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox.  The Astros and (maybe?) the Nationals were also linked to LeMahieu earlier this winter, so it’s fair to assume some new calls may have been placed to those teams.  Of the six clubs cited, it was already known that the Mets, Dodgers, and Jays were in on LeMahieu, with Toronto mentioned as the batting champion’s most fervent suitor apart from the Yankees.

This is the first time, however, that the Red Sox, Braves, and Cardinals have been linked to LeMahieu, opening up an intriguing new set of possibilities.  All three teams were among those who had the early interest in LeMahieu, however, so it could be that those were simply due diligence check-ins, or plans may have changed as the winter market has developed.  That said, due to some feeling earlier in the offseason that a LeMahieu/Yankees reunion was inevitable, more teams may now make a more serious push if they have a sense that LeMahieu may actually sign elsewhere.

Not much seems to have changed with LeMahieu’s asking price, as Brown reports that LeMahieu is looking for “at least” five years and $110MM.  Previous reports indicated a similar price from LeMahieu’s camp, with the Yankees’ top offer apparently falling short by more than $25MM.  The Cardinals may not be willing to spend much this offseason.  The Braves could be in somewhat of the same situation after already investing in Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, though Atlanta has a lot of salary coming off the books following the 2021 season.  Boston has the spending capacity but the team wasn’t thought to be shopping at the top of the free agent market this winter, in part because signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like LeMahieu would cost a draft pick.

The acquisition of Francisco Lindor might also take the Mets out of the LeMahieu hunt, and longtime Dodger Justin Turner has been cited as Los Angeles’ top choice to handle third base (even if Turner’s ask for a four-year contract is very likely to go unfulfilled).  It isn’t known what Toronto’s top offer to LeMahieu is or was, but since the Jays are reportedly willing to give a similar contract to George Springer, they could pivot by putting that offer on the table for LeMahieu.

Several virtual meetings are planned between LeMahieu and various teams over the coming week, Brown writes, so we could have more clarity on the All-Star’s situation soon.  At this juncture, it’s hard to say where LeMahieu might end up, or if perhaps other mystery teams could emerge.  Of course, LeMahieu could also wind up with the Yankees after all, if New York feels it needs to increase its offer in response to any additional pressure from one or more clubs.

Tommy Lasorda Passes Away

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In sad news, the Dodgers announced this morning that Hall of Fame manager Tommy Lasorda passed away last night. He was 93 years old.

“In a franchise that has celebrated such great legends of the game, no one who wore the uniform embodied the Dodger spirit as much as Tommy Lasorda,” president and CEO Stan Kasten said in a statement. “A tireless spokesman for baseball, his dedication to the sport and the team he loved was unmatched. He was a champion who at critical moments seemingly willed his teams to victory. The Dodgers and their fans will miss him terribly. Tommy is quite simply irreplaceable and unforgettable.”

A franchise icon, Lasorda began a brief playing career with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1954. While he didn’t find much success as an MLB player, that experience kicked off an association with the Dodger organization that would last 71 years. After his playing career ended, Lasorda served as a scout and manager in the Dodgers’ farm system. He became a member of the MLB coaching staff in 1973 and took over as manager near the end of the 1976 season.

That began one of the most decorated managerial careers in MLB history. Lasorda immediately led the Dodgers to back-to-back pennants in 1977-78. Both those teams lost to the Yankees in the World Series, but Lasorda would guide the Dodgers to a pair of championships in the following decade (in 1981 and 1988). He remained the Los Angeles skipper for an incredible twenty seasons, before stepping aside midway through the 1996 campaign due to health concerns. Even after Lasorda’s managerial tenure ended, he remained inextricably linked with the organization. As the Dodgers note in their press release, he had spent the past fourteen years as a special advisor.

Lasorda also managed the Gold Medal-winning 2000 United States Olympic team in Sydney. He was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1997. MLBTR joins the Dodgers in sending our condolences to Lasorda’s family and countless friends and fans throughout the sport.

Dodgers Bullpen Rumors: Hendriks, Yates

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The Dodgers were in pursuit of free-agent reliever Liam Hendriks earlier this offseason, but that interest “has recently dissipated,” Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes. While Hendriks is viewed as the best reliever available on the open market, the former Athletics closer reportedly wants a four-year contract, and the Dodgers aren’t willing to sign him to that long of a deal, according to Castillo.

Although Hendriks appears to be out of the mix for Los Angeles, the reigning World Series champions do have other high-end relievers on their radar. Along with the previously reported Brad Hand, the Dodgers are eyeing right-hander Kirby Yates, per Castillo, who adds that they “have significant interest in him.” Yates shouldn’t cost as much as Hendriks or Hand, having missed almost all of last season with elbow problems, but the ex-Padres standout could be a relatively low-risk, high-reward pickup for any team that signs him. After all, the 33-year-old is just two seasons removed from posting a ridiculous 1.19 ERA with a 41.6 percent strikeout rate and a 5.3 percent walk rate over 60 2/3 innings. Yates also saved a National League-high 41 games in 44 chances that year.

A Yates signing for the Dodgers would be somewhat similar to 2020 additions such as Blake Treinen and Jake McGee, in that they’d be landing a proven reliever whose stock isn’t at an all-time high on a short-term pact. Both signings worked out well for LA last season, and the team was so impressed with Treinen’s work that it brought him back on a two-year, $17.5MM guarantee in free agency.

Dodgers Focused On Right-Handed Hitting Infielders

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From the outside looking in, the Dodgers have clearly prioritized their bullpen this winter: trading for Corey Knebel, re-resigning Blake Treinen, signing injured Tommy Kahnle to a two-year deal. Behind the scenes, however, their offseason efforts have focused on finding a right-handed hitting infielder, writes the Athletic’s Jim Bowden.

On its face, this tracks. They have a need: right-handed infielders Justin Turner and Kiké Hernández are free agents, and of their remaining infielders, only Chris Taylor bats from the right side. Additionally, reports place right-handed infielders firmly in their sights. We know they’re making a run at DJ LeMahieu, one of the top right-handed infielders in the game period, and on the trade front, everyone and their mother seems to thinks Nolan Arenado is destined for the Dodgers (except – and this seems relevant – the Rockies).

But it’s somewhat maddening that the Dodgers haven’t just brought Turner back. He’s been the face of the franchise, a fan favorite, a clutch and steadying presence, and a hugely productive producer over his seven years with the team. This is circumstantial and narrative, but it’s a fact nevertheless: So long as the Turner has been at the hot corner in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers have won the division every year.

Together, Los Angeles and Turner just won the first World Series of this long and dynastic era of Dodger baseball. The economic landscape in the game is strained, but this is the Dodgers, and they just won the World Series, and they need a right-handed infielder: make the deal, right?

Besides, he’s from Long Beach, he went to high school in Lakewood and college in Fullerton. Turner and L.A. is a proven fit.

The Dodgers, however, aren’t quite so sentimental. Turner might not be either. He’s reportedly seeking a four-year deal, which is a non-starter for a 36-year-old. For the Dodgers, a reunion with Turner is a no-brainer under the assumption that they can get him on a short-term deal. Four years isn’t going to happen.

Many in the industry project Turner as a candidate for rapid decline. Bowden writes, “Turner is now 36 years old and the analytics scream that his performance decline is at the high-risk level.” He’s not alone in anticipating a downturn in performance.

Turner’s whiff rate on fastballs jumped from 15.4 percent to 20.4 percent, and that’s a concern. Turner’s .153 ISO was his lowest isolated power mark since his first season in Los Angeles – and it wasn’t close. There was some slippage defensively – his success rate fell from 90% in 2019 to 84% in 2020 – though Statcast’s estimated marks suggest a less precipitous decline from 89 percent to 87 percent. Another point for the detractors, Turner runs less well than ever, finishing in the 18th percentile by sprint speed, down from 33rd percentile in 2019 and the 43rd percentile in 2018.

To soften the blow, one might consider that if the worst part of his game – which has never been an asset – is the biggest area of concern, then the alarm bells might be premature. Of course, none of that changes the fact that he’s entering his age-36 season. In the end, decline comes for everyone.

There’s plenty of cause to be bullish on Turner, however, beginning with his 140 wRC+ in 2020. His 10.3 percent walk rate was right around league average and the third-best mark of his career. He put the ball in play with an excellent 14.9 percent strikeout rate.

Not only was he putting the ball in play, but he wasn’t making cheap contact. His exit velocity in 2020 exactly matched his mark from 2019. His 44 percent hard hit percentage was a career high. His 11.2 percent barrel rate set a career high by a margin of 2.4 percent, trouncing the MLB average of 6.4 percent.

Lastly, and I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it’s safe to assume he’s in the 98th percentile both for beard length and fullness. Not to mention, baseball-wise, he finished in the 95th percentile for xwOBA.

On the other hand, LeMahieu is very good, and if they can add him to Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, and Chris Taylor in the infield, that’s something the Dodgers have to consider. There are other options on the free agent market as well, though not a ton that hit from the right side. Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Jonathan Villar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jurickson Profar, and Marwin Gonzalez are switch-hitters who could fill Kiké’s role. Only Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien really fit the right-handed hitting infielder mold the Dodgers’ seek.

With a payroll near $198MM, the Dodgers’ have a decent chance to exceed the luxury tax mark of $210MM, and that’s a line they’ve avoided in recent years. Turner should definitely keep them closer to the line than LeMahieu. But if the difference is marginal – say, $25MM AAV versus $20MM AAV – then it’s hard to argue against pursuing the current American League batting champion, even if Turner does rake again in 2021.

White Sox, Dodgers Among Potential Brad Hand Suitors

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Count the White Sox and Dodgers among the suitors for closer Brad Hand, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Along with the Blue Jays and Mets, Hand now has a decent cadre of clubs interested in his services.

The price point for Hand’s eventual contract figures to be of unique interest after all 30 clubs surprisingly passed on claiming his one-year, $10MM option. As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne wrote just yesterday, “…the 30-year-old is a three-time All-Star who remained one of baseball’s most effective relievers a season ago. While Hand’s average fastball did drop from 92.7 mph to 91.4, he still recorded a 2.05 ERA with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate and a 4.7 percent walk rate over 22 innings. Hand also converted all 16 of his save opportunities.”

The White Sox make for a natural suitor as they continue to wrench open their window of contention. They know Hand well from his time in their division, and incumbent closer Alex Colomé is also a free agent. Tony La Russa’s club is well-stocked in southpaws with fast-rising rookie Garrett Crochet coming off a very impressive initial Major League showing, as well as Aaron Bummer, who might be the premier wormkiller in the game. Jace Fry has also been a productive southpaw for the ChiSox with a 4.07 FIP, 29.6 percent strikeout rate, 13.7 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate over the past three seasons. To add Hand to that group may seem gluttonous, but slotting him in as the closer would allow Chicago to continue to use Fry and Bummer situationally while protecting Crochet’s usage.

The Dodgers have secured quite a bit of help in their bullpen recently with the signing of Tommy Kahnle and the re-signing of Blake Treinen. Of course, Kahnle is unlikely to pitch much – if at all – in 2021, and Treinen was part of the group last year. Besides, if there’s a question mark for the champs heading into the 2021 season, it centers on the longevity of incumbent closer Kenley Jansen. Hand would give the Dodgers a plethora of options in yet another facet of the ballgame.

Dodgers Re-Sign Blake Treinen

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The Dodgers have re-signed right-handed reliever Blake Treinen to a two-year, $17.5MM guarantee that includes an $8MM club option or a $1.5MM buyout for 2023, Bob Nightengale of USA Today was among those to report. Treinen is a client of Apex Baseball. MLBTR predicted he would land a two-year, $14.5MM guarantee at the beginning of the offseason.

Treinen was something of a buy-low pickup for the Dodgers last winter, though they did have to guarantee the former Athletics standout $10MM. While he was then coming off a disappointing season in Oakland, the move paid off handsomely for the World Series-winning Dodgers, who got 25 2/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball with a 20.6 percent strikeout rate, 7.5 percent walk rate, and a tremendous 64 percent groundball rate from Treinen. The 32-year-old continued to average upward of 97 mph on his fastball along the way.

Putting aside his issues in 2019, Treinen has been one of the game’s most productive relievers throughout his career. In all, Treinen has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 23.3 strikeout percentage and a 9.4 percent walk rate in 425 2/3 major league innings. At his best, Treinen – also a former National – gave the A’s 80 1/3 frames of 0.78 ERA ball in 2018. While Treinen does have 72 saves on his resume, he has so far served as a setup man for the Dodgers, who continue to rely on Kenley Jansen as their game-ending answer.

Treinen should keep working as a bridge to Jansen in 2021, and the Dodgers will continue to feature a formidable bullpen even beyond those two. The Dodgers’ relief corps finished the 2020 campaign with a National League-best 2.74 ERA, and though Jake McGee turned in an excellent year and is now a free agent, they did add former All-Star Corey Knebel earlier this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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