Dodgers Rumors

NL Health Notes: Wieck, Seager, Arrieta, Eickhoff

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 3:04pm CDT

Padres lefty Brad Wieck was diagnosed with testicular cancer earlier this year, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. The 27-year-old hurler went under the knife not long thereafter. Fortunately, the medical prognosis appears to be good, though it’s obviously something that’ll be watched closely by doctors. Though Wieck will be building back to full strength during camp, it seems his outlook on the field also remains promising. He could return to the hill in the next few weeks, it seems, and could again present the team with a MLB option after making his debut during a promising 2018 campaign.

As we send our best wishes to Wieck for a cancer-free future, we’ll cover some other health matters from the National League …

President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the Dodgers are quite encouraged by the progress of shortstop Corey Seager in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter. It’s “a best-case to this point,” in fact, which certainly paints a hopeful picture. Seager went under the knife at the end of April last year, so he’s about ten weeks shy of being a full year removed from the procedure. The hope remains that Seager will be prepared for Opening Day, manager Dave Roberts indicated yesterday (via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter), though it stands to reason that the club will take a cautious path before fully unleashing the young star.
Phillies starter Jake Arrieta underwent a meniscus procedure on his left knee about a month back, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). The surgery, which addressed an injury that occurred during the offseason, does not appear to be a major concern, with Kapler saying the expectation is for Arrieta to be ready for the start of the season. Still, the hope was that the veteran righty, who’ll soon turn 33, would be at full health and focused on finding improvements after his ERA rose for the third-straight season.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are holding their collective breath on fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff. As Kapler explains, and Lauber tweets, Eickhoff has again experienced symptoms relating to the carpal tunnel issues that led to surgery last season. While another procedure isn’t on the table at present, it’s another suboptimal situation. The 28-year-old has shown quite a bit of talent, but is looking to bounce back after missing almost all of the 2018 campaign.

Fallout From The J.T. Realmuto Trade

By Ty Bradley | February 9, 2019 at 10:47am CDT

Following a merciful coda to the offseason’s most protracted soap opera – a fine Philly offer, agreed upon Thursday, that finally plucked former Marlin catcher J.T. Realmuto from the clutches of South Beach – each of the oft-snubbed clubs offered their final say.

We’ll start in Atlanta, in whose court the Realmuto ball seemed to linger longest – indeed, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the team needed only to surrender two from the group of Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, and one top pitching prospect (of which Atlanta has several: each of Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, and Joey Wentz are top 100 prospects in at least one major outlet). Ozzie Albies, said to be an essential part of any Realmuto deal with Atlanta, was never a demanded centerpiece, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though certainly a substantial return, it’s a package that can’t be said, by any reasonable analysis, to be one that would have stripped the farm of the suddenly-conservative Braves to the bone.

The ask of the Dodgers, ever-cautious themselves, was two from a group of Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Lux, and Will Smith, per Heyman, in the same tweet. Ruiz and Smith, both catchers, likely won’t ever be on the field together at Chavez Ravine, and some outlets ranked neither May nor Lux inside the top 100. Both Heyman and Rosenthal concede that Cody Bellinger was the prize on which Miami initially laid its eyes, but it appears the team quickly swiveled to less-established names in the weeks to follow.

Rosenthal confirms earlier reports that the Fish first coveted outfielder Michael Conforto or Amed Rosario from the Mets, and adds that the team also needed a “top shortstop prospect,” presumably Andres Gimenez, to be added to the deal. It doesn’t appear the club pivoted to other names after the Mets balked, likely owing to the thinned-out version of the late-offseason Mets farm.

From the Yankees, the club did seek Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar, per Rosenthal, but only part of a “larger deal” that would obviously have included additional pieces. The Bombers were understandably reluctant to trade either, and the wheat of the Yankee farm – stocked mostly with high-upside, low-level types – wouldn’t have been enough to secure Realmuto’s services. The reported three-team with the Mets that would have sent Noah Syndergaard to New York was bandied about, but a copacetic swap was “never close.”

Cincinnati was both late to the fore and hesitant to move any of its top three prospects, per Rosenthal, and it doesn’t appear a deal was close there, either. Perhaps surprisingly, given the intense scrutiny of the talks, both the Twins and White Sox were “in the mix,” though prospective returns and/or offers are still in the dark.

In the end, Miami seems more than content with its return. The Fish regarded Will Stewart, the trade’s third piece, as Philadelphia’s second-best pitching prospect, per Rosenthal, ahead of near-unanimous top-100 hurler Adonis Medina, righty Spencer Howard, who placed 52nd on Keith Law’s list, and lefty JoJo Romero (66th overall, per Law). Sixto Sanchez, of course, has a decent shot to be an ace, and it’s certainly true that the club could reap more value in Jorge Alfaro alone than it would in the next two seasons with Realmuto behind the dish. The oft-pilloried asks, long said to far outstrip the two-year value of the game’s premier offseason trade target, were, in most respects, perfectly reasonable, and may have quickly been met in eras bygone. This, though, is the time for prospect hoarding, an age in which the control is treasured above all else, and those with even the slightest chance to be stars are stashed deep away, brought out only for the most earnest of window shoppers.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/7/19

By Steve Adams | February 7, 2019 at 10:08pm CDT

Here are Thursday’s minor moves from around the game…

The Rays re-signed outfielder Jason Coats to a minor league pact and invited him to MLB Spring Training, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Coats, who’ll turn 29 later this month, spent the 2018 season with Tampa Bay’s Triple-A affiliate, where he hit .247/.293/.448 with 15 home runs. Coats has a bit of big league time under his belt, having tallied 28 games with the White Sox in 2016. While he struggled to get on base last season, though, he has a stronger track record in Triple-A overall, where he’s a .277/.327/.462 hitter in nearly 1300 plate appearances.
The Dodgers have signed righty J.D. Martin to a minor league pact, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. A first-rounder way back in 2001, Martin never established himself in the Majors but has been working to reinvent himself as a knuckleballer over the past three seasons. Martin spent last year with the Rays’ Double-A affiliate, where he posted a 4.49 ERA with 5.1 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9 in 124 1/3 innings of work. Those numbers aren’t exactly encouraging, though the knuckleball is still fairly new to Martin. As Rosenthal notes, he’ll work with Dodgers adviser Charlie Hough on further refining his ability to utilize the increasingly rare pitch.
The Dodgers have also signed veteran Cody Asche to a minor league deal, tweets J.P Hoornstra of Southern California News Group. Asche, 28, spent the entire 2018 season in AAA, hitting .220/.304/.399 across 368 plate appearances. He last appeared in the majors with the Chicago White Sox in 2017, where he played 19 games mostly as a DH. Hoornstra notes that Asche will not receive an invite to spring training with Los Angeles.
The Mets have signed left-handed pitcher Sean Burnett to a minor league contract, tweets the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff. The deal, Davidoff notes, does not include an invite to MLB spring training. Burnett spent the 2018 season pitching primarily with the Marlins’ AAA affiliate, where he posted a 5.49 ERA, although he flashed more promising peripherals. He struck out 10.5 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.3, good for a 4.6 K/BB ratio. Burnett, 36, has not pitched in the majors since 2016. For his career, he has pitched to a 3.52 ERA in 378 1/3 major-league innings.

J.T. Realmuto Talks In “Advanced Stages”

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2019 at 2:10pm CDT

The Marlins’ trade talks centering around J.T. Realmuto have reached “advanced stages,” reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, who lists four possible suitors still in the mix: the Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Braves.

While the report seems to advance things from previous levels, it should be pointed out that this isn’t the first time talks have reportedly gained momentum. In fact, that exact terminology (“gaining momentum”) was used last Friday with no deal yet coming to fruition. Earlier this week, the Reds were said to have “made progress” on a Realmuto swap before those reports were walked back, and it’s now been three weeks to the day since the Marlins were first reported to be in “substantive” trade talks regarding Realmuto.

Whatever is going on behind the scenes, it seems clear that there has at times been a concerted effort to convey the idea that talks have been more productive than is the case in actuality. Perhaps that’s the Miami organization trying to pressure other clubs to inch their offers toward the reported sky-high asking price, but with all due respect to those involved, it’s become difficult to determine just how close a deal is to reality. For instance, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Dodgers aren’t even active in their pursuit at the moment but adds the Rays to the list of current pursuers; Frisaro’s report, in contradictory fashion, says the Rays and Astros look to have largely bowed out of the race while listing the Dodgers as a factor. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted last night that the Padres are more involved than the Dodgers.

The greatest cause for optimism regarding a terminus in this exhausting saga could be the latest column from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required), wherein he writes that there are “signs that [the asking price] has come down in recent days.” The Padres have reportedly sought an extension with Realmuto as a contingency in any trade, though Lin now writes that the organization remains confident it could sell the catcher on its promising future even though the Marlins have denied interested teams a window to negotiate a long-term deal.

Over the past week, the Padres and Reds have been the two teams most strongly linked to Realmuto, with Atlanta, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay oft rumored to be involved to varying extents. The continually conflicting depiction of the extent to which each is (or isn’t) interested makes individual updates perhaps worth taking with a grain of salt. However, the pronounced increase of rumors surrounding Realmuto does seem to lend credence to the notion that the Marlins have upped their efforts to find a palatable deal.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/30/19

By Jeff Todd | January 30, 2019 at 12:44pm CDT

We’ll use this post to track the day’s minor moves …

Joining the Pirates on a minor-league contract is right-hander Vicente Campos, according to John Dreker of Pirates Prospects. The contract includes an invitation to MLB camp. Once a rather well-regarded pitching prospect, Campos ran into injury and performance issues just as he was reaching MLB readiness. As things stand, he has just one appearance at the game’s highest level and has thrown only 46 total frames over the past two seasons. Dreker writes, though, that Campos has been clocked in the mid-nineties and found some success this winter in his native Venezuela.
The Dodgers added outfielder Ezequiel Carrera on a minors deal, per reports. Now 31 years of age, Carrera has seen action in seven MLB seasons and was a frequently-utilized reserve with the Blue Jays from 2016-17. Last year, though, he struggled quite a bit at the Triple-A level with the Braves and Mets organizations and failed to get a look at the majors.
Outfielder Mike Gerber was outrighted after clearing waivers, per the Giants. He’ll remain under control of the San Francisco organization after being claimed and then designated for assignment earlier in the offseason. The 26-year-old Gerber is only a .224/.286/.428 hitter in 334 Triple-A plate appearances but had posted strong numbers at every other level in the Tigers’ farm system.

Reds Have “Made Progress” In Realmuto Trade Talks; Other Clubs Still Involved

By Steve Adams | January 29, 2019 at 4:30pm CDT

4:30pm: While the Reds’ interest in Realmuto is genuine, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, the organization also doesn’t view him as a necessity and isn’t willing to overpay in order to acquire the All-Star.

Jan. 29, 9:13am: Whatever progress was made has clearly not yet resulted in a deal. It’s not just that the Marlins want to wait to see if other clubs will increase their offers. Rather, per Heyman (via Twitter), the Fish and the Reds are “still apart on prospects,” with other clubs also still engaged with the Miami organization.

Jan. 28, 3:59pm: MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that there are “substantive” talks ongoing between Cincinnati and Miami, adding that India is indeed a player being discussed as part of the return.

The Marlins, though, are still talking with the Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, and are seeking the best package of two to four players they can obtain.

3:03pm: Third base prospect Jonathan India, whom the Reds selected with the No. 5 overall pick in this past summer’s draft, is also of interest to the Marlins, Heyman tweets. The former Florida Gators star hit a combined .240/.380/.433 in 184 plate appearances this past season in his pro debut — though he struggled in the Class-A Midwest League a bit after tearing through the Rookie-level Appalachian League with a .995 OPS in 14 games (the type of production one would expect from a fairly polished college bat in Rookie ball).

2:37pm: The Reds are “making progress” in their effort to pry catcher J.T. Realmuto away from the Marlins, reports Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Prospects Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell and Hunter Greene are all of interest to Miami, Heyman notes, which isn’t exactly a surprise given that they’re the organization’s consensus top three farmhands. Cincinnati is reluctant to part with any of that trio, but the two sides still appear to be gaining steam. Tucker Barnhart could be part of the package going back to Miami if a deal is reached, Heyman adds.

Whether it’s with the Reds or another club, it does seem as though the Marlins are at long last moving toward a deal. SiriusXM’s Craig Mish tweets that the Padres have been making a “late charge” for Realmuto and suggests that the “final chapter of the saga is upon us.” Heyman tweets that the Padres and Dodgers have been among the most aggressive teams in pursuit of Realmuto in recent days, prior to Cincinnati’s increased efforts. The Braves, according to Mish, are also in the mix though perhaps not to the same extent as the other three.

If the Reds are to ultimately strike a deal, it’ll be the latest move in an aggressive offseason of trades that has dramatically altered the complexion of the club. Cincinnati has already acquired (and extended) Sonny Gray in a deal with the Yankees, and the Reds have also picked up Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in another pair of deals.

While catcher isn’t a clear-cut area of need given that Barnhart is a solid option behind the dish himself, Realmuto has emerged as arguably the game’s best all-around catcher over the past couple of seasons, meaning he’d still be an upgrade for the Reds if Barnhart is indeed shipped to Miami as part of the trade. It should be noted, too, that Barnhart took a step back in several key areas last year; the 28-year-old had a career-high strikeout rate (18.4%) and saw his OBP and average dip as his batting average on balls in play regressed closer to his career norm.

Even defensively, the well-regarded Barnhart saw his caught-stealing rate plummet from a league-leading 44 percent in 2017 to a below-average 24 percent in 2018. In spite of his 2017 Gold Glove Award and strong reputation, Barnhart has never graded out as a plus pitch-framer, but he posted the worst marks of his career in that regard in 2018 as well (per Baseball Prospectus).

All of that said, Barnhart is still a .257/.331/.374 hitter across the past four seasons, and while the resulting 88 OPS+ is below average relative to the rest of the league, it checks in a bit better than that of the average catcher over that same span. He’d be a better replacement for Realmuto than the majority of the free-agent options remaining on the market, and with $10.25MM guaranteed to him over the next three seasons (plus a 2022 option), he’d be plenty affordable even for the low-spending Marlins. He’d also give Miami another potential trade piece should the team look to flip him quickly this offseason or perhaps this summer at the deadline.

Dodgers Sign A.J. Pollock

By Mark Polishuk | January 29, 2019 at 10:55am CDT

JANUARY 29: Bob Nightengale of USA Today has further details on the contract (Twitter links).

Pollock receives a $12MM signing bonus followed by salaries of $1MM, $12MM, $15MM, and $10MM. That sums up to $50MM over four years.

The 2023 player option can escalate up to $15MM if he takes 600 plate appearances in the season prior and can move all the way to $20MM based upon the 2022 MVP voting.

Pollock could alternatively opt out after the third campaign — and keep his $5MM buyout — if he reaches one thousand total plate appearances in 2020 and 2021 or if he tallies 1,450 from 2019 through 2021.

The deal also includes a $1.5MM assignment bonus, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).

JANUARY 26: The Dodgers added a big piece to their new-look outfield by officially signing free agent outfielder A.J. Pollock, to a four-year contract. The Excel Sports Management client receives a $60MM guarantee.

Pollock stands to pick up an opt-out opportunity after the 2021 season if he reaches plate-appearance thresholds. If he stays past that point, the deal will pay him $50MM over its four promised campaigns. There’s also a player option for a fifth season. Pollock will choose between a $10MM salary (which can also escalate further) and a $5MM buyout for the 2023 campaign.

Pollock hit .257/.316/.484 with 21 homers and 61 runs scored over 460 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks last season. Between these numbers at the plate and a solid defensive showing (+6 Defensive Runs Saved, though a -1.6 UZR/150 for his first negative UZR/150 total in six years), it was a decent platform year for Pollock as he entered the free agent market, despite downward trends in his swinging strike and contract rates.

The biggest issue, however, was that Pollock had another lengthy stint on the disabled list, missing roughly six weeks due to a fractured thumb. This makes it four out of five seasons that Pollock has missed significant time, with a laundry list of injuries (fractured thumb, broken hand, groin strain, and a fractured elbow that sidelined him for much of 2016). It was during his one healthy season, 2015, that Pollock exhibited his high ceiling, hitting .315/.367/.498 over 673 PA, while also racking up 20 homers, 39 steals, a Gold Glove, and his lone All-Star appearance.

With this injury history in mind, perhaps it isn’t surprising that Pollock wasn’t able to land the $80MM contract he reportedly sought at the start of the offseason, despite a solid amount of interest from the Reds, Mets, Braves, and Astros at various points this winter. MLB Trade Rumors projected Pollock to land a four-year, $60MM contract in our Top 50 Free Agents rankings, with Pollock ranked eighth in the Top 50 list.

Pollock was linked to the Dodgers earlier this week, and his signing helps solidify a Dodgers outfield that already underwent one shakeup when Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp were traded to the Reds. While Pollock could end up seeing time as a corner outfielder depending on how the Dodgers shuffle their versatile lineup, the expectation is that Pollock will spend the large majority of his time in his usual center field position, flanked by some combination of Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, and/or top prospect Alex Verdugo in left and right field. Perhaps more importantly than just his position, Pollock also gives the Dodgers an everyday right-handed bat to help balance out their lefty-heavy lineup.

Perhaps just as notably, adding Pollock would seem to put to rest any chance of Bryce Harper landing in the Los Angeles outfield. The Dodgers were long seen as potential suitors for Harper, particularly after they cleared some extra payroll space in the Puig/Kemp trade. Adding approximately $12MM in average annual value on Pollock’s reported contract terms, however, would keep L.A. slightly under the $206MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, as per Roster Resource’s calculations of the Dodgers’ salary commitments.

This doesn’t mean the Dodgers ultimately won’t end up crossing the luxury tax line this winter, depending on what other moves could still be in the offing. (For instance, Nightengale reports that the team is in “intensive ongoing talks” with the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto.) Given the Dodgers’ reported reluctance to again cross the CBT line, however, they could only surpass the $206MM threshold by a minimal amount. Spending between $206MM and $226MM would subject the Dodgers to only a first-timer penalty of a 20% tax on every dollar spent in overage, so it could be that $226MM is the real barrier for the team this offseason, and they could then duck back under the $206MM line next offseason once some big contracts come off the books.

Since Pollock rejected the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer and signed a deal for more than $50MM, Arizona will receive a compensatory draft pick that will fall after the first round of next summer’s draft. The D’Backs have already received such a compensation pick when Patrick Corbin signed with the Nationals, giving Arizona a whopping six picks in the first 79 (or so, depending on what other compensatory picks are awarded) selections in the draft.

For signing a qualifying offer free agent, the Dodgers give up $500K from their international draft bonus pool, as well as their second-highest selection in the 2019 draft. That pick will be the 31st overall selection, which the Dodgers received as compensation for failing to sign 2018 draft pick J.T. Ginn.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was the first to report (via Twitter) on an agreement between the two sides, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reporting the four-year contract length and Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link) noting the deal was worth at least $55MM. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) had the specifics on Pollock’s contract breakdown and the player option details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

AL Notes: Tigers, Castellanos, Twins, Rangers

By Connor Byrne | January 27, 2019 at 9:43pm CDT

Given that Tigers slugger and trade chip Nicholas Castellanos has drawn little interest this offseason, they’re unlikely to move him until the deadline approaches in the summer, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press suggests. While the Dodgers have been prominently connected to Castellanos this winter, they’ve never seriously pursued the outfielder, according to Fenech, and now appear completely out on him after signing A.J. Pollock this week. Signs are pointing to Castellanos staying in Detroit into the 2019 campaign, then, and general manager Al Avila will need to be convinced the return for him in an in-season trade outweighs the draft compensation the team would receive by keeping the soon-to-be 27-year-old and issuing him a qualifying offer next winter. With that said, Fenech wonders if the Tigers would even risk offering a pricey QO to Castellanos, who may well accept it because his well-documented defensive troubles figure to tamp down his value on the open market.

MLBTR Poll: Have Teams Become Too Conservative In Free Agency?

By TC Zencka | January 27, 2019 at 7:08pm CDT

As we approach February of a second straight long-gestating free agent winter, the top two free agents remain curiously unsigned. Rather than drive a bidding war, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s concurrent free agencies have snailed along with only the White Sox and Phillies as definitive suitors. More so than usual, there is a growing sense of discord between the owners and players, steering these economically-opposed-but-conjoined forces towards a potentially destructive labor negotiation in 2021, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

Teams at both ends of the competitive spectrum are contributing to this contentious ecosystem. At one end, bottom feeders like the Orioles, Marlins, and Blue Jays are realizing the long odds of winning their divisions and choosing the judicious (and totally understandable) approach to team building, largely abstaining from free agency. At the same time, there are more than a few teams with wide-open competitive windows who nonetheless remain passive in free agency, citing financial limitations or a need for future flexibility. The competitive balance tax, intended as a punitive fee to help balance the league, has instead become a scapegoat for large market teams to avoid significant free agent spending. Public opinion lands on both sides of the fence, with owners painted as evolving at best and collusive at worst, while the players are viewed, alternatively, as a whiny group of greedy millionaires or a disenfranchised labor force facing an unemployment crisis.

Receiving the brunt of the criticism at present is the Dodgers, back-to-back National League champions whom many expected to make a play for Harper. Despite their reputation as big spenders, however, it’s been quite some time since the Dodgers played the part of spendthrift, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. When they hired former Rays GM Andrew Friedman before the 2015 season, there was excitement over what Friedman could do when given the reins to the Los Angeles machine. What has conspired instead brings to light a whole new question: how much revenue can the Dodgers clear under Friedman’s watchful spending? In theory, they’ve stuck a perfect balance between large market spending and small market creativity, but the reaction hasn’t been quite so laudatory.

For example, in staying true to his ever-creative roster management, Friedman shipped the erratic trio of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood to the attraction-starved Reds for a pair of promising prospects and the remains of Homer Bailey, whom they released. We asked MLBTR readers for your opinion, and 45% thought the Reds won the deal against only 18% who pegged the Dodgers as the winner. There was another 24% who thought the trade was a win-win, but it was an overall underwhelming reaction to a move the Dodgers likely view as a creative means to acquire future assets in return for volatile performers who proffered no future value to the club beyond 2019.

The above trade, combined with their complete lack of interest in Harper and Machado gives the impression of a team disinclined towards large payroll expenditures. Accurate or not, the optics have born itself out in the public reaction – so long as Harper and Machado remain on the market, the cries for ownership to open up their wallets and “do whatever it takes to win” will not cease. And yet, the “throw money at it” approach to problem solving, long en vogue among sports franchise front offices, has gone decidedly out of style.

When pressed about the their lack of interest in Harper, Dodgers president Stan Kasten rejected any idea of frugality on the Dodgers’ part, per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. Kasten repeatedly cites attendance numbers to rebuke the idea of fan discontent while also railing against the public invention of false narratives. While that does sound an awful lot like another billionaire using the “fake news” moniker as blanket refutation of public sentiment, it’s worth considering his perspective. On the one hand, the Dodgers are being targeted here not because they’ve made poor decisions, necessarily, but because their market, the current competitive landscape, and traditional expectations of free agency peg them as one of the likeliest overspenders. That they aren’t taking the bait and competing literally at all costs shouldn’t necessarily make them the poster team for the current lack of spending. They did, after all, make the largest cash commitment to a position player thus far this winter.

And yet, with those sky high attendance numbers in tow, it’s certainly possible that the Dodgers are both among the highest-spending franchises in baseball and also among those most at fault for stifling the market. Keep in mind this exploration from Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports, this isn’t simply a Dodger issue – this is a categorical questioning of the fairness, or smartness, or rightness of team spending throughout the league. The Dodgers are the team currently left holding the bag, but the Cubs, Yankees, Giants, Astros, Indians and others could all be accused of underspending, to various degrees. Only the Red Sox and Nationals had the gall (pride? guts? willingness?) to exceed the luxury tax in 2018. Of course, it’s not “crossing the tax line” at issue, it’s that the refusal to engage the free agent market leaves wins on the table. The rigidity with which large market teams are refusing to pay the tax is baffling, especially as more and more GMs attest that there’s no mandate from ownership to do so. The party line in front offices across the league isn’t that ownership won’t pay, it’s that ownership is finally hep to the fact that big contracts means big risk that sometimes turns into a big, constant reminder of ownership’s failings. In Los Angeles, the Angels have the best player in baseball, and the best argument against these monster contracts. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a string of six straight division titles and two straight pennants. It’s easy to understand why Kasten believes in his club’s approach.

Time remains for Harper and Machado to land the types of mega-deals they’re seeking, and they will, no doubt, end up with a sum of money that, out of context, will boggle the mind. But in context, it’s more complicated. See Grandal, Yasmani. Teams are spending less in free agency than they used to and it’s incumbent upon the game’s biggest stars to set the market. Anything less would be a disservice to the players who don’t have the same leverage.

So where do MLBTR readers stand on the state of free agency in 2019? Have teams evolved to the point that’s simply frustrating for players? Are owners valuing revenue over contention in a way that threatens the underlying infrastructure of the sport? Should players readjust their expectations? Or is this the battle that’s worth going to the mattresses?

Even, is this just what a flatter marketplace looks like? With opposing sides taking longer than usual to find a middle ground? Regardless, the debate rages on. What do you think?

Link for app users.

Recovery Notes: Pineda, Nelson, Dubon, Seager, Zimmer

By TC Zencka | January 27, 2019 at 2:20pm CDT

Michael Pineda has yet to throw a pitch for the Twins, but he’s healthy now and ready to make his Twins debut in 2019, per Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. The Twins signed Pineda to a two-year, $10MM guarantee last December as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, hoping he might be ready for the latter half of the season. Just when it looked like Pineda was ready to return, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his knee, ending his season before it began. Injuries have been a constant for Pineda’s career, though he did put together back-to-back healthy campaigns for the Yankees in 2015 and 2016. His overall 4.05 ERA is boosted by a particularly strong rookie campaign, but across 680 innings in Seattle and New York, he did turn in 9.1 K/9 to 2.1 BB/9. The Twins are perhaps the most wait-and-see team in the league, with many volatile assets equally capable of All-Star seasons and bottoming out (Pineda, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jonathan Schoop, among others). With no guaranteed money on the books for 2020, recent speculation has Minnesota as a sleeper team for either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Thad Levine threw some water on that idea, as he believes significant acquisitions of that variety are more appropriate for frontrunners atop a division, rather than a young team on the rise, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Certainly an interesting take from the Minnesota GM. Now, some more recovery news from around the league…

The Brewers will return an intriguing arm to their rotation this spring, as Jimmy Nelson is healthy and ready to go, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). Nelson will have no restrictions heading into Spring Training, and he’s not backing down from high expectations either, making clear his goal to get the nod on Opening Day – unlikely as that may be. Nelson put together an impressive campaign in 2017 that launched him to the top of the Milwaukee rotation, but it’s probably best to temper expectations after a torn labrum took his 2018. For Milwaukee, the tide is turning on what was seen as a rickety rotation leading up to the playoffs, as their starting staff now looks to be a source of potential strength. Jhoulys Chacin made himself irreplaceable in their run to the NLCS, and he’s backed by Zach Davies and Chase Anderson, both rebound candidates after subpar seasons. Add Nelson, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, among others, as contenders to join what now looks like a high-ceiling and deep, if unstable, unit.
Rosiak also notes (via Twitter) that prospects Keston Hiura and Mauricio Dubon are ready for a big year, rested in the former’s case and healthy after ACL surgery in the latter’s. While both will return to big league camp this spring, they’ve been told they won’t be with the team on Opening Day, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (via Twitter). None of this should come as a surprise, as it’s become the norm for top prospects to begin their debut seasons in Triple A, but it’s safe to say Hiura, at least, is hopeful to make an impact at the ML level sometime in 2019. Dubon, for his part, was ripping through Triple A before the surgery, hitting .343/.348/.574 in 27 games with Colorado Springs.
Corey Seager hasn’t taken batting practice since his injury last May, but he’s long-tossing in preparation for an important spring back in the middle of the Dodgers infield, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Seager isn’t yet mobilizing for groundballs or throwing across the diamond, but his recovery from Tommy John surgery has gone according to plan thus far and hope remains that he’ll be ready by Opening Day. He’s hitting off a tee, with the next steps being batting practice in the cage before going against live pitching. The Dodgers have the depth to cover for Seager if he’s not ready by Opening Day – with Chris Taylor the most likely stand-in – but he’s obviously a huge part of their team moving forward.
The Royals fanbase is still waiting for the long-heralded debut of former top draft choice Kyle Zimmer, but it seems nearly time after he signed a major league contract this winter, per the Kansas City Star’ s Lynn Worthy. Zimmer was the 5th overall pick of the 2012 draft, but he missed the entirety of 2018 while training at the Driveline Baseball pitching program. Even so, he was clocked in the mid-90s this fall, and the Royals weren’t alone in competing for Zimmer’s services, hence the major league contract. Said GM Dayton Moore of the deal, “I would rather have him fail with us than go somewhere else and succeed.” While that’s not exactly a rousing sentiment, and it could be read as vindictive, that does not appear to be Moore’s intent, who praised Zimmer for his mindset and toughness. For Zimmer’s part, he spoke glowingly of the Royals longstanding support and loyalty in his continued journey to toe a major league rubber. If he can stay healthy, there’s opportunity enough for Zimmer to make his debut at Kauffman Stadium sometime in 2019, and despite Moore’s omission of Zimmer’s potential success with the Royals as one of his potential futures, that’s surely the goal for both parties.

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