MLBTR Poll: Predicting Clayton Kershaw’s Next Contract
The 2018-19 free agent class doesn’t look quite as exciting now as it has promised to at points in the past. Still, it’s a notable assemblage of talent. And at the top of the list of pitchers sits future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw.
Of course, that statement comes with some caveats. In particular, Kershaw will need to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his deal. While that once seemed a foregone conclusion, Kershaw has not been quite his vintage self this season — or, in truth, in the campaign prior. With the backdrop of ongoing back problems, there are undeniably some cracks in the armor.
If Kershaw’s recent form has betrayed his mortality, though, it has still also illuminated his ongoing excellence and value. After all, in his 312 1/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season, he has compiled a 2.36 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Even with the reduction in his velocity and swinging-strike rate on display this year, Kershaw has been among the most effective starters in baseball. And the years of unquestioned dominance that came before still represent an important background factor.
All things considered, there’s not much reason to think that Kershaw can’t beat 2/$65MM in free agency. Whether he reaches the open market could still be in question, to be sure. It’s not hard to imagine a new agreement of some kind with the Los Angeles organization coming together before Kershaw is forced to decide on the opt-out clause (or, if he does exercise it, before qualifying offer decisions are finalized). Then again, he and the team know much more about his medical situation than do the rest of us, so perhaps there’s still some possibility he’ll simply opt into the remainder of the deal.
Regardless of how it comes to pass, Kershaw will presumably end up with a more-or-less market-driven rate of pay, even if a deal comes with the Dodgers before he’s formally a free agent. After all, Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management no doubt have a good idea what they think he’s worth, as does the L.A. front office.
For those of us on the outside looking in, it’s a bit more difficult to gauge. The Dodgers and others will surely be stingy, in particular, with the length of the commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season. But the focus here will be on the total cash posted rather than on how many seasons it’ll be spread over. Knowing what we know now, and presuming Kershaw finishes the season at his current trajectory and without any significant new injury issues, which level of total guarantee do you think he’ll sign at?
Guess Clayton Kershaw's Next Contract
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$90MM to $125MM 27% (2,185)
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$125MM to $175MM 26% (2,129)
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$65MM (opt-in) 20% (1,603)
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$175MM+ 16% (1,298)
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$65MM to $90MM 11% (847)
Total votes: 8,062
Kenley Jansen Anticipates Offseason Surgery To Address Irregular Heartbeat
Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen firmly anticipates the need for an offseason heart procedure, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick was among those to report on Twitter. It’ll be a repeat of the procedure he had in 2012 to deal with an irregular heartbeat.
Jansen, of course, missed time recently when he experienced a recurrence of the symptoms that led to his original procedure. Indications at the time were that an offseason surgery would again be necessary, though it was not clear until his comments today that it was all but certain to take place.
There has been no change to Jansen’s availability down the stretch and into the postseason (if the Dodgers qualify). After all, the issue was already known. And presumably the hope will remain that he’ll be ready for a full spring camp in 2019, though details remain unknown.
Of course, Jansen’s cardiac health will remain the top priority. It’s certainly scary to hear of the ongoing issues, though certainly it’s promising that he has been able to continue his career and encouraging to know that he’s being watched closely by experts.
Soon to turn 31, the outstanding right-hander has not been at his dominant best thus far in 2018. He struggled in particular for a stretch in late August after returning from his recent scare. But the veteran has righted the ship over his past several appearances and still owns a healthy 2.89 ERA, with 10.3 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9, over his 62 1/3 innings on the season.
That’s still quite productive, but it’s nothing close to the typical version of Jansen. To take but one example: he currently carries a 2.98 SIERA (the ERA estimator that looks most favorably on his 2018 output). That means that this season will break a remarkable seven-year streak in which Jansen posted SIERA marks of 1.88 or lower.
Whether Jansen can still deliver a vintage performance the rest of the way, and into the future, remains to be seen. He is under contract through 2020, with $56MM of earnings over the three seasons yet to come, so there’s plenty at stake for the Dodgers. Clearly, though, the most important thing is that Jansen remains healthy.
Dodgers Recall Julio Urias
After a rehab process that spanned more than 14 months, left-hander Julio Urias is back in the Majors. The Dodgers announced Monday that they’ve recalled the 22-year-old from Triple-A Oklahoma City — his first look in the big leagues since undergoing shoulder surgery last June.
Urias’ rapid ascent to the Majors is among the most impressive we’ve seen out of a pitcher in recent memory. The still-young lefty arrived on the scene in May 2016 — well shy of his 20th birthday — and gave the Dodgers 77 innings of 3.39 ERA ball with 84 strikeouts against 31 walks across multiple big league stints over the remainder of that season. Urias was one of the game’s 10 best prospects before debuting in ’16 and was looked at as a potential building block for the Dodgers’ rotation before last summer’s surgery.
That’s still the best-case scenario for Urias, of course, though surgery to repair the anterior capsule in his left shoulder at such a young age was a disheartening development that created a somewhat increased degree of uncertainty moving forward. For the time being, it’s likely he’ll be used out of the bullpen, as he’s only thrown 11 2/3 innings across three minor league levels since returning from that surgery. He’s racked up 19 strikeouts in that time but also issued six walks and been tagged for seven earned runs.
Some rust is to be expected for Urias, but a healthy run in September and perhaps in October, even in a relief role, would be a significant step forward as the Dodgers map out his trajectory in 2019 and beyond. It seems likely that Urias will again be viewed as a starter in the future, though Los Angeles will keep a close eye on his workload as he distances himself from major shoulder surgery.
Quick Hits: Judge, Seager, Rays
Yankees sophomore sensation Aaron Judge is still feeling pain when he swings a bat, per a tweet from Marc Carig of The Athletic. Certainly there’s still time for him to regain his health and strength in advance of the postseason (we still have three weeks until October, after all), but the news has to be disconcerting both for the Yankees organization and for Judge himself. The outfielder has been out of commission since July 26th after sustaining a chip fracture in his wrist, and though it was reported as recently as yesterday that he could be nearing a return after he was able to participate in on-field drills, the news that his pain level (still describes as a “4” on a 1-10 scale) casts some doubt on the notion that he could be back on the field within the next week or so.
- Corey Seager expects to play shortstop for the Dodgers next year, as he tells Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Seager has had massive misfortune this year in regards to injuries; he suffered a UCL injury early on in the season that required the infamous Tommy John procedure, and had to undergo a second procedure on his hip soon thereafter. Recently, though, he’s expressed confidence in his recovery from these surgeries. Seager is already off of crutches, and he looks forward to resuming a throwing program next month. “Based to this point, I’ll be ready to go,” Seager said. “I should, ‘quote unquote,’ have a pretty normal spring. It will probably be a little slow in the beginning, but should be pretty normal.”
- In light of the Rays‘ success with creativity this season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times details some of the most interesting aspects of the club’s strategy in 2018. Carig explores various aspects of the club’s advances back to contention, highlighted by the purging of veterans in order to bring focus to a new, young core. The coming out parties for players like Jake Bauers and Joey Wendle have been fun to watch, to be sure. But equally interesting has been their improvements in much broader aspects of the game: a few mentioned by Carig include the team’s improvement on the hard contact and line drive front, trimming of strikeouts, spike in batting average, and, of course, the adoption and implementation of the “opener” strategy.
NL West Notes: Jansen, Myers, Giants
Kenley Jansen‘s latest bout with an irregular heartbeat left the Dodgers closer more irritated than scared, he tells ESPN.com’s Ramona Shelburne. Jansen had dealt with similar heart issues in 2011 and 2012, the latter resulting in heart surgery. After the problem arose again last month, his immediate reaction was that “I thought my season was over. I’m like, man, f— this. Not again. We’re trying to go back to the World Series. I have a chance to win another Trevor Hoffman award. Man!” Shelburne’s piece details how Jansen dealt with the heart problem that evening, and how he has been trying to balance staying healthy while also making an earlier-than-expected return to the field.
Interestingly, Jansen noted that he likely wouldn’t be playing if the Dodgers weren’t in contention. “To tell you the truth, I wanted to have the second surgery right now so we could just fix it and I’d know everything was OK,” Jansen said. “But I know what an opportunity our team has this year and my responsibilities here.” That second surgery could come after the season is over, though while Jansen continues to play, he is sitting out the Dodgers’ road series against the Rockies this weekend on doctors’ recommendation, as his last two irregular heartbeat episodes occurred while in Denver’s thin air. Jansen is hopeful, however, that he would be cleared should the Dodgers end up facing the Rockies in a postseason series.
Here’s more baseball news from around the Golden State…
- With Wil Myers still very much a work in progress at third base, “the Padres seem to be leaning toward moving” Myers between positions in 2019 rather than make him a full-time option at the hot corner, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Myers has spent much of his six MLB seasons at first base or right field, though he has also played multiple games as a center fielder (33 starts), left fielder (28 starts) and third baseman (18). Of course, he has yet to provide much defensive value wherever he has played, though if Myers is at least a passable option at multiple positions, the Padres can shift him around the diamond every day while opening up playing time for others. For his part, Myers feels he is making progress at his latest position and feels he can still contribute to the team as a primary third baseman.
- The Giants should explore the idea of trading Madison Bumgarner this offseason, ESPN’s Buster Olney opines. Bumgarner is controlled through the 2019 season via a $12MM club option that is sure to be exercised, and the Giants would certainly get a good return for even just one year of the star lefty’s services. Of course, the team declined offers for Bumgarner at the trade deadline and has given every indication that it plans to contend in 2019. Olney, however, sees parallels between the Giants and the Phillies teams from earlier this decade, who suffered for holding onto a veteran core too long rather than recognize that a rebuild was necessary. Keeping Bumgarner next season or extending him may not make sense, Olney feels, for a Giants team that could soon face its own rebuild.
2018-19 Opt-Out & Player Option Decisions
With Major League teams increasingly adding opt-out provisions to free-agent contracts as a means of incentivizing players to sign, there are now a handful of those decisions that impact the free-agent market every offseason. With nearly 90 percent of the season already in the books, many of the opt-out decisions/player option decisions look pretty clear cut.
Things could change over the final month, but here’s a look at where things currently stand…
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (Two years, $65MM remaining): Truthfully, Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out provision in 2018 who could be called likely to exercise the clause at present. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual and has spent time on the DL for a third straight year (back issues, biceps tendinitis), it’s difficult to imagine him having to take less than that $65MM sum in free agency.
In 131 1/3 innings this season, Kershaw is sporting a 2.40 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. He hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2015, but he’s still a clearly elite starter. If he does formally opt out, the Dodgers can issue a qualifying offer, though perhaps the easiest scenario would be for Los Angeles to simply extend Kershaw’s current contract to prolong his already historic Dodgers career.
David Price, Red Sox (Four years, $127MM remaining): Price is having his best season with the Red Sox, having notched a 3.60 ERA with a strikeout per inning and 2.4 walks per nine innings pitched through 152 1/3 frames. His results have been solid, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where he exceeds $127MM in free agency at the age of 33. Price’s Boston tenure has been rocky at times, but it seems likely that he’ll be back in the rotation next season.
[Related: Club option decisions on starting pitchers, relievers and position players]
Jason Heyward, Cubs (Five years, $106MM remaining): Declining to opt out is little more than a formality for Heyward at this point, as he hasn’t come close to living up to his $184MM contract in Chicago through the first three seasons. To his credit, though the 29-year-old has had a nice rebound effort, hitting .275/.342/.399 with above-average defense in right field. That might make the Cubs feel better about his contract moving forward, but it won’t be enough to prompt Heyward to test free agency. His contract contains a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season, at which point he’ll have four years and $86MM remaining, but that also seems like a long shot.
Elvis Andrus, Rangers (Four years, $58MM): Andrus could be considered more of a borderline call than some on this list, but he seems likelier to stay with Texas than to opt out. The 30-year-old hasn’t had a bad season, hitting .270/.322/.396 with quality defense, but his bat hasn’t been as potent as it was in 2016-17 when he hit a combined .299/.348/.457. The downturn in offensive output might not be entirely Andrus’ fault; he did incur a broken elbow when he was hit by a pitch earlier this season — an injury that caused him to miss just over two months of action. It’s easy to imagine that injury having a lingering effect on Andrus’ swing, too.
Like Heyward, Andrus has a second opt-out clause in his contract after the 2019 season. At that point, he’ll have three years and $43MM remaining on his contract. If his bat returns to its 2016-17 levels, surpassing that $43MM mark in free agency could be plausible. If Andrus opted out, he’d certainly be issued a qualifying offer — there’s no reason for the team to worry about him taking a one-year deal worth about $18MM when he just walked away from $58MM — which would only further hinder his earning power.
Yasmany Tomas, D-backs (Two years, $32.5MM remaining): Tomas clubbed 31 homers with the 2016 Diamondbacks but did so with a .315 on-base percentage and some of the worst defensive ratings of any player in the Majors — regardless of position. He’s since been outrighted off the 40-man roster and, in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this season, has 101 strikeouts against 11 walks with a .280 OBP. Suffice it to say: he’s not going anywhere.
Mark Melancon, Giants (Two years, $28MM remaining): Injuries have ruined Melancon’s first two seasons with the Giants, though he’s been excellent since returning in 2018: 2.64 ERA, 7.9K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 53.1 percent ground-ball rate in 30 2/3 innings. That performance is encouraging for the Giants as they look to 2019, but it won’t be enough to make Melancon’s camp think he can top $28MM heading into his age-34 season.
Brandon Kintzler, Cubs ($5MM player option): Kintzler’s contract technically contains a $10MM club option or a $5MM player option, but it’s clear given his dismal performance since being traded to Chicago that the team won’t be opting for that $10MM sum. Kintzler was very good with the Twins and Nationals from 2016 through this past July, but his typically excellent control has evaporated in Chicago while his hard-contact rate has skyrocketed. It’s only a sample of 11 2/3 innings, but his struggles make the option seem a fairly straightforward decision.
Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox ($5MM player option): Nunez’s deal comes with a $2MM buyout, making this effectively a $3MM decision for his camp. He’s struggled to the point that he may not even want to take that risk, though, hitting just .258/.282/.384 through 473 trips to the plate.
Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported this week that Nunez’s option increased from $4MM to $5MM once he reached 400 plate appearances. Bradford spoke to Nunez, who acknowledged that the knee that gave out on him in the postseason last year has been a problem for him throughout 2018, though he believes he’s finally “close” to 100 percent. Perhaps a strong month and a big postseason could prompt him to again test the open market, but his overall production to this point makes the player option seem a likelier outcome.
Dodgers Release Adam Liberatore
The Dodgers have released left-handed reliever Adam Liberatore, as first reflected on the MLB.com transactions page. Liberatore was designated for assignment last week after the Dodgers acquired Ryan Madson from the Nationals.
Liberatore, 31, enjoyed an excellent season with the 2016 Dodgers but has since been slowed by injury troubles — most notably a forearm strain that cost him much of the 2017 season. He’s tallied 13 big league innings in 2018 with a quality 2.77 ERA and a dozen strikeouts, though he also issued eight walks in that time and had some struggles in Triple-A Oklahoma City (5.19 ERA, 17-to-6 K/BB ratio, two hit batters in 17 1/3 innings).
At his best in 2016, Liberatore gave the Dodgers 42 2/3 frames of 3.38 ERA ball with 9.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 38.9 percent ground-ball rate. Despite being more of a fly-ball pitcher, he yielded only two long balls that year. He’s lost a couple of ticks off his fastball since that ’16 season, averaging 90.9 mph on his heater in his limited sample of big league innings this year, but Liberatore was still characteristically tough on left-handed opponents. Throughout his career, lefties have batted just .204/.294/.311 against him through 188 plate appearances.
Notably, Liberatore was on the minor league disabled list due to a knee issue at the time of his DFA, which explains the decision to release him rather than pass him through outright waivers. (Injured players cannot be passed through outright waivers during the season.) It’s common in these instances for the player to re-sign with his previous organization, though Liberatore will now have the ability to sign with any team.
Dodgers Pursued Adrian Beltre Before Revocable Waiver Deadline
The Dodgers pursued Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre in advance of the recent revocable waiver deadline, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (and on Twitter). A lack of interest — on the part of both the Texas organization and its veteran star — evidently scuttled talks between the clubs.
With full no-trade protection, Beltre controlled his own destiny. He was never formally presented with a deal for a yay or nay, though that simply isn’t how he and his long-time employer handled the matter. Rather, both GM Jon Daniels and Beltre labeled it a mutual decision not to pursue a trade.
For Beltre, passing on the opportunity meant missing out on a chance to serve as a reserve for his former team in Los Angeles — a role that ultimately was filled through the acquisition of David Freese. That would have meant a shot at a deep postseason run, it still wasn’t enough to pique Beltre’s interest. He reiterated yet again that he wishes to wrap up his playing career with the Rangers.
Where this situation is most interesting is in the evident regard both Beltre and the Rangers front office showed for one another. Beltre says he’d only have been interested in a deal if “it was a perfect situation for me and the organization.”
Daniels said that the Rangers would not have stood to recoup much in the way of a return (in terms of prospects and/or cost savings). He explained: “If [Beltre] had wanted to push for a trade, we would have honored that; for him to not to have done so says a lot about his relationship with the fans and his teammates. That piece of it, I’m in awe of.”
As Grant notes, it’s a rather unusual situation in several regards. While it’s still unclear whether Beltre will play another season, and if so whether it would be with the Rangers, this episode certainly makes it appear more likely that team and player will remain united from this point forward.
Injury Notes: Wainwright, Buehler, Stripling, Urias, Rivera
After pitching in his sixth minor league rehab outing on Saturday, Adam Wainwright could be back in the Cardinals rotation sometime this week, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The former ace has been limited to just four starts and 18 innings in 2018 due to three separate DL stints, the latter two for right elbow inflammation. During this rehab stint, however, Wainwright has seemingly gotten on track, tossing 17 shutout innings over his six appearances. While the longtime Cardinal can add some experience to a young St. Louis rotation, it has been some time since Wainwright has exhibited his old front-of-the-rotation form, as injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued the veteran over the last four seasons.
Here are some more injury updates from around the big leagues…
- Walker Buehler will receive a precautionary x-ray on his left foot following today’s start, the Dodgers told reporters (including J.P. Hoonstra of the Southern California News Group). It isn’t clear how or when Buehler suffered the apparent injury, though he did see some extra action on the basepaths after hitting two singles today. The rookie right-hander has been outstanding in his first extended stint in the majors, posting a 2.92 ERA, 9.89 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, and a 48.5% grounder rate over 104 2/3 innings, including today’s quality start against the Diamondbacks. It isn’t known how serious this injury could be, though losing Buehler would obviously be a blow to the Dodgers as they push for another NL West title.
- The Dodgers should be getting another arm soon in Ross Stripling, who told the L.A. Times’ Bill Shaikin (Twitter link) and other media that he is targeting next weekend for his return from the disabled list. Stripling has been sidelined since mid-August due to a sore back, and has been preparing for multiple roles, as he said the Dodgers want him to be capable of either starting or working as a multi-inning reliever. Despite an outstanding first half as a starter that earned him an All-Star berth, Stripling had been moved to the bullpen just prior to his injury, as the Dodgers had a glut of rotation options and a need for help in their struggling relief corps.
- The news isn’t as good for Julio Urias, as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters that “I don’t know when [Urias is] going to pitch again” this season. Urias underwent anterior capsule surgery in June 2017 and hasn’t been back to the majors since, though Roberts and the team had hoped that he could potentially make a September return as a reliever. In Urias’ most recent minor league rehab outing, however, he was removed after reaching his pitch count after just three batters faced. “We said from the beginning that when he’s right physically and performance-wise, then he’ll come [back to the majors]. If either of those things doesn’t happen, then it doesn’t make sense for us or him,” Roberts said.
- The Mets have shut down infielder T.J. Rivera for the season, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports. Rivera underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2017, and only played in six minor league rehab games in July before suffering a setback in the form of a right elbow sprain. Over 106 games and 344 PA for the Mets in 2016-17, Rivera hit .304/.335/.445 with eight homers while seeing significant time as a fill-in at first, second, and third base. As DiComo notes, however, Rivera could face a tough path back to the big league roster in the spring, as other utility infield options have passed him on the depth chart.
Minor MLB Transactions: 9/2/18
The latest minor moves from around baseball…
- The Dodgers announced that they’ve selected the contract of catcher Rocky Gale from Triple-A Oklahoma City and moved right-hander Brock Stewart (right oblique strain) to the 60-day disabled list. Gale, whom the Dodgers signed to a minor league contract last offseason, hit .281/.305/.383 in 318 plate appearances with Okahoma City this year. The 30-year-old previously saw MLB action with the Padres in 2015 and ’17, though he only totaled a combined 20 PAs in those stints.
- The Braves have selected infielder Ryan Flaherty from Triple-A Gwinnett and placed outfielder Michael Reed (left lower back strain) on the 60-day DL, per a team announcement. Flaherty’s back in Atlanta not long after it outrighted him Aug. 23. The veteran has struggled across 172 PAs this season as a member of the Braves, with whom he has hit .222/.298/.301.