Olney On Type A Free Agents
ESPN.com's Buster Olney looks back to last winter when players like Juan Cruz saw their value tumble because the Elias rankings classified them as Type A free agents. Some players are good enough to qualify, but not tantalizing enough for teams to give up the high draft pick that Type A free agents cost if their teams offer arbitration. Olney quizzed a group of executives about this year's likely Type A free agents; here are the details you need to know:
- Vladimir Guerrero makes $15MM this year, so Olney's execs doubt the Angels will offer arbitration.
- The executives polled said the Braves seem likely to offer Mike Gonzalez arbitration. It may make sense for Gonzalez to accept, since teams may be reluctant to give up millions of dollars and picks when there are other good relievers available. It doesn't appear that the Braves will offer Rafael Soriano arbitration.
- Four of the six execs Olney asked say the Cubs won't offer Rich Harden arbitration. He'd be in a position to command $10MM on a one-year deal. Is that such a huge risk for a big-market club like the Cubs to take? Harden has started 51 games since 2008 and could yield a top draft pick.
- None of Olney's respondents expect the Astros to offer Miguel Tejada arbitration.
- The execs are split on the Dodgers' plans for Orlando Hudson. The club is cost-conscious, but Hudson is still a talented player who could net the team a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
Got it? You can find explanations of arbitration, free agent compensation and related terms in our hot stove glossary if it's still a little hazy.
Dodgers Negotiating Extension With Colletti
2:51pm: SI's Jon Heyman heard from "people close to the situation" that Colletti is very likely to receive at least a three-year deal.
10:16am: The Dodgers are in long-term contract talks with general manager Ned Colletti, according to Bill Shaikin and Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. Colletti's current contract has a mutual option for 2010.
Colletti has been on the job since November of 2005. His work has been a mixed bag. On the positive side of the ledger (reserving judgment on this summer's trades): the original Nomar Garciaparra signing, the signings of Takashi Saito, Hiroki Kuroda, and Orlando Hudson, and the Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez acquisitions. Colletti's second time around with Randy Wolf has worked out extremely well also.
On the negative side: signings of Brett Tomko, Bill Mueller, Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, and Andruw Jones, the Nomar extension, and the waiver claim of Esteban Loaiza. Hindsight is 20/20, but Colletti also traded Edwin Jackson and Carlos Santana, designated Cody Ross for assignment, and non-tendered Jayson Werth during his tenure.
Will Yusei Kikuchi Choose MLB?
Yusei Kikuchi may decide this week between Japanese baseball and MLB, according to Bobbie Dittmeier of MLB.com. As Dittmeier says, the hard-throwing 18-year-old southpaw would "become the first high school player to bypass Japan's draft and sign with a Major League organization."
Dittmeier says the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Tigers, Braves, Rangers, Mariners and Indians have reportedly scouted Kikuchi. She passes along a Kyodo News quote from Kikuchi's high school coach indicating the pitcher is 50-50 on his decision.
NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman has covered Kikuchi extensively. Back in May, Newman explained to MLBTR the differences between Kikuchi and Junichi Tazawa.
Discussion: Should Dodgers Extend Colletti?
The Dodgers currently sit at 93-62, their best record since 1988 when they won their last World Series title. Since Ned Colletti took over as general manager four years ago, the Dodgers have tasted postseason baseball three times.
Colletti's current deal has a mutual option for 2010, and while it might seem like a logical move for both sides to exercise the option and see what happens after 2010, Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com doesn't seem to think that Colletti will return next season without receiving a multi-year extension.
Colletti is certainly largely responsible for the Dodgers' success, but he's also made his share of unsuccessful moves, including the signings of big-name, big-money busts like Andruw Jones and Jason Schmidt. Then again, it's hard not to praise Colletti for moves such as the Manny Ramirez trade and the bargain signings of Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson.
Bloom is in favor of a Colletti extension, pointing out how quickly the club turned around after a 71-91 record in 2005. Additionally, he points to the biggest number of all: the Dodgers' attendance mark of 3,601,611. The Dodgers are managing the best attendance in baseball this season in the worst economy in recent history.
So what do the readers think? Should Colletti be extended through 2010 and beyond? It's hard to argue with the product on the field this season, but how quick should fans be to forgive the failed gambles in recent Dodger history?
Discussion: Randy Wolf
In the midst of a renaissance year at the age of 33, it's hard to peg Randy Wolf's value heading into free agency. The left-handed starter has posted an ERA of 3.24 (4.25 xFIP) to go along with a 6.8 K/9 and a career best 2.3 BB/9. Detracting from his value of course, is his injury history. Wolf averaged just 94 innings per season between 2004 and 2007.
Even the Astros had a hard time ascertaining his value in a slumping economy last winter. Ed Wade offered Wolf a three-year deal worth $28.5MM before pulling it almost immediately.
Wolf proved to be one of the biggest bargains of the 2009 free agent class, signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers with a base value of $5MM. Even when factoring in the incentives that Wolf will earn for his 200+ innings, (bringing the total to $8MM) he is still a tremendous value as Fangraphs estimates his worth up to this point to be $14MM.
Jayson Stark sees Wolf as the second best starting pitcher in the 2010 free agent class. Stark also quotes one general manager as saying, "I don't think there's one pitcher in this entire group I'd invest a lot of money in. Not one."
Would you extend a major contract offer to Wolf considering his injury-riddled past? Could Wolf command a contract in the vicinity of $40MM over three years?
Odds & Ends: Chapman, Iglesias, Dodgers
They're not quite as good as Saturday morning cartoons, but here's some Saturday morning links…
- David Lennon of Newsday writes that the Mets are among a handful of teams that are exploring a deal for Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. We learned that Chapman was officially declared a free agent by MLB yesterday.
- ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. sat down for a chat with Jose Iglesias, who the Red Sox signed for over $8MM this summer. When asked why he chose the Sox, Iglesias said they "were a team that needed a shortstop," and "they are my father's favorite team."
- With Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, Russell Martin, George Sherrill, and Hong-Chih Kuo all eligible for salary arbitration this offseason, Dylan Hernandez of The LA Times says that the Dodgers could be looking at raises totaling about $20MM.
- Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune says that Royals "upper management still considers (Milton) Bradley a talented hitter who could thrive in a low-key environment such as the one in Kansas City." He also wonders if a Bradley for Aaron Rowand deal could work.
Odds & Ends: Dodgers, Villalona, Johnson
A few Monday evening links….
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argues Joe Torre is making the Dodgers worse by giving Ronnie Belliard playing time at the expense of Orlando Hudson. Belliard is outperforming Hudson lately, and keeping Hudson on the bench is saving the Dodgers some money, but Cameron thinks that playing Belliard at second base in October would hurt the team's World Series chances.
- Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports that Giants prospect Angel Villalona has pleaded innocent to the charge of murder. Still, Baggarly says it's anyone's guess whether Villalona will ever play baseball again.
- After some recent speculation that the Marlins might attempt to move Josh Johnson, imaginations are already running wild. Roch Kubatko at the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network wonders what kind of prospects it could take to get Johnson to Baltimore.
Benching Costs Orlando Hudson
Talking to Jim Peltz of the L.A. Times, Dodgers manager Joe Torre would not commit to Ronnie Belliard over Orlando Hudson as the team's starting second baseman. Belliard has started at second base in eight of the team's 18 games this month, as well as a few times at third.
Hudson stands to lose money as a bench player, though he was gracious in comments made to Peltz. The way his contract is set up, Hudson is currently earning $10,000 per plate appearance up until his 632nd. He's already earned $7.63MM on the season, despite a base salary of $3.38MM.
The larger effect of the benching may be on Hudson's next contract. He faces strong competition among free agent second basemen, and will have a hard time topping this year's salary.
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Dodgers, DeRosa, Cubs, Managers, General Managers
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive right on in…
- Southpaws Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw are likely to start the first two games of the playoffs for the Dodgers, but Kershaw must recover from his dislocated non-throwing shoulder first. The back-to-back lefties would be a big advantage if LA played the lefthanded hitter heavy Phillies. Rosenthal also mentions that the Cardinals, despite being so righty heavy, have the second lowest team OPS (.675) against lefthanded pitchers in the National League.
- Hiroki Kuroda would likely start game three for the Dodgers, followed by either Vicente Padilla or Jon Garland. Chad Billinglsey will likely be left out of the rotation.
- The Cards have put their contract extension talks with Mark DeRosa on hold until the offseason, making it more likely that he'll become a free agent. The deal St. Louis originally proposed was less than the three-year, $17.5MM contract Casey Blake received as a free agent last offseason. DeRosa is a year younger now than Blake was then, but the offseason wrist surgery he is scheduled to have makes the situation cloudy.
- The Cubs will be open to "anything and everything" this offseason, including trading Milton Bradley and/or Carlos Zambrano. Anything to improve the club, basically. However, perhaps the only way the Cubs could unload Bradley would be to take on another underachieving, overpaid player in return.
- Zambrano has a full no-trade clause and is owed $54MM over the next three years, but he's still only 28-years-old and still incredibly talented. The free agent market for starting pitching is thin, which may work in Chicago's favor. Big Z might be appealing at the right price.
- Ken Macha will likely remain with the Brewers, but at least four other managers are in danger of being fired. The list starts with Cecil Cooper of the Astros, and also includes Jim Riggleman of the Nationals, Dave Trembley of the Orioles, and Eric Wedge of the Indians.
- Among general managers, Ned Colletti of the Dodgers, Brian Sabean of the Giants, and Dan O'Dowd of the Rockies are all without contracts for next year, and two of them are going to the postseason. The only GM that appears to be in jeopardy of losing his job is J.P. Ricciardi of the Blue Jays.
Odds & Ends: Mateo, Sano, Crow, Ethier
Some more links for the afternoon or, if you're on the East Coast, the early evening…
- ESPN.com's Jorge Arangure Jr. hears that a vision issue could affect the status of the contract Wagner Mateo signed with the Cardinals earlier in the summer. If Mateo has a degenerative eye condition, the Cards may look to reclaim some of the $3.1MM they awarded the 16-year-old. Mateo's agent says it's a non-issue.
- Miguel Angel Sano doesn't appear to be near a deal with any club, but Arangure Jr. hears that the shortstop seeks $3.2MM.
- ESPN.com's Keith Law believes Aaron Crow's long holdout will hurt the pitcher more than it helped him. The Royals completed their deal with Crow just yesterday.
- ESPN.com's Rob Neyer knows it's painful for the A's to see Andre Ethier's 30-homer season in LA, but he reminds his readers that Milton Bradley helped the A's win a division title after Billy Beane traded Ethier to acquire Bradley before the 2006 season.