MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
The market for free agents of any note is drying up by the day. In particular, we've seen a run on veteran pitchers. Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Cal Quantrill, Jakob Junis, John Means, Tyler Alexander, Kenley Jansen, Scott Barlow, John Brebbia, Kendall Graveman, Luke Jackson, Scott Alexander and Lucas Sims have all come off the board in the past ten days. A few bats have signed in that time as well, but typically on smaller-scale deals. Justin Turner's $6MM Cubs deal is the most notable. Each of Michael A. Taylor, Ty France, Paul DeJong and Luis Urias secured guarantees between $1-2MM.
At this stage, there simply aren't many potential big league deals left for free agent position players. That doesn't mean there aren't any, however. There are still four free agent hitters who posted better-than-average offense last year, plus another couple notable names who are looking to bounce back from their first truly poor offensive performance in the past six seasons.
Let's run through some of the remaining free agent position players on the market, with a brief look at their 2024 season, what they bring to the table, and some of the best landing spots left for each.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers.
Hello friends.
The Gauts remain buried in Midwest snow and single-digit temps, but the good news is I've become super proficient in virtual learning/hiding from my kids to sneak away to write fantasy nerd stuff. They always find me, though...Always.
Regardless, let me warm up my fantasy soul with some regression-fueled hate. Wait! Hold on; just wait. I know "regression" can be a dirty word for some, as it's too often used as a crutch to explain both the good and the bad. Its disciples can go too heavy with their reliance while the detractors get set against all things analytical and too often throw out all the good with the bad.
Like most things, an extreme path is rarely best. Regression can be good and regression can be bad; it's all relative, baby. Just like we shouldn't assume that a 3.00 xFIP will translate to a 3.00 ERA in the future, we also shouldn't assume a 4.00 xFIP will equal a 4.00 ERA.
No individual number tells the whole story in baseball, but they can serve as markers, good or bad, pointing out areas that may warrant further examination. And while one bad flag doesn't necessarily mean disaster, worry should pile up as the number of red flags mounts.
Let's look at three starters who were excellent last season but have more red flags than a Turkish semaphore team. That's right -- a flag-signaling joke. Deal with it.
Brenton Doyle has been one of the brightest spots amidst a terrible two-year run for the Rockies. The former fourth-round pick has emerged as a quality everyday center fielder. Doyle has won Gold Gloves in each of his first two MLB seasons. The defense was the only value he provided as a rookie, as he was arguably the league's worst regular hitter in 2023. He took a huge step forward in his sophomore season to break out as a quality all-around contributor.
Doyle hit .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs across 603 plate appearances last season. That's essentially league average offense according to park-adjusted metrics that account for Coors Field. That's a major leap from his .203/.250/.343 showing as a rookie. Doyle would be an All-Star caliber player if he can simply maintain league average production at the plate. He leads all outfielders in Statcast's Outs Above Average since making his debut. Only Daulton Varsho has more Defensive Runs Saved. Doyle is probably a top three defensive outfielder in the game. He went 30-35 on stolen base attempts last year.
Last season's offensive strides came with a real change in process. The right-handed hitter had a markedly improved plate discipline profile. He cut his strikeout rate by almost 10 percentage points. After fanning 35% of the time during his rookie season, he struck out at a 25.4% clip last year. He chased fewer pitches off the plate and increased his walk rate by a couple points. Among players with 400+ plate appearances in each season, only Red Sox's catcher Connor Wong had a bigger improvement in his strikeout rate. No one took a more significant step forward than Doyle in making contact on a per-pitch basis.
That presents an interesting evaluation. The bullish case is that it demonstrates Doyle's capacity to make offensive adjustments, perhaps hinting at an even higher ceiling as he enters his third season against big league pitching. On the other hand, it's fair to wonder if last year's improvement is entirely sustainable. Players don't always progress linearly. Doyle's numbers tailed off in the second half, especially in September. He still made far more contact late last season than he had as a rookie, but his .234/.274/.407 line coming out of the All-Star Break is far below the .276/.343/.471 mark he carried into it.
Even amidst their rebuild, the Rockies have prioritized locking up players they consider key pieces. They've had mixed results on that front. The Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland extensions haven't panned out. Ryan McMahon's production has been up-and-down. Last spring's $63MM investment in Ezequiel Tovar looks like the best of the bunch, as the 23-year-old shortstop had a strong second full season in the majors.
Is Doyle next in line? Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote a couple weeks ago that Colorado has had some internal conversations about the possibility. What kind of prices could the team and Doyle's camp at the Ballengee Group discuss?
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 3pm CT, exclusively or Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
Helllo friends.
Happy Valentine's Day! Or, as I like to call it, Happy My Birthday Eve! That's right, y'all -- much like a bearded Cupid, this cherubic lothario was born just a whisper from our Hallmark-created day of lo-oove. Fitting but a little on the nose, if I say so myself.
Any-who. I know you're not here for love-talk, you're ready to mainline some of that hot sleepiness right into your fantasy veins. Well, don't let me hold us back anymore. It's time to get back to America's #1 (probably) fantasy baseball fake award show...
It's the Sleepys!
On the transaction front, Spring Training's arrival opens extension season. Teams and players are free to talk extensions at any time of year, but it's most common in the lead-up to the start of the regular season. While most of those deals are for players early in their careers, there have been a few high-profile impending free agents (e.g. Rafael Devers, Ian Happ) who have recently signed extensions in the run-up to their platform years.
The Phillies pulled off the biggest extension of that ilk last spring. They kept Zack Wheeler off the market on a three-year term at a record-setting $42MM average annual value. That came a few months after the Phils brought back Aaron Nola on a seven-year contract early in free agency. For the third straight season, they're faced with the possibility of losing one of their most valuable pitchers to the open market.
Ranger Suárez is headed into his final year of club control. He and the Phillies already agreed to an $8.8MM salary to avoid arbitration. The question now is whether they want to initiate talks on a longer-term contract to try to keep him off next winter's open market. What kind of offer might that take, and how well-positioned are the Phils for another extended pitching investment?
Suárez, who turned 29 last August, has been a mid-rotation presence for three years running. The southpaw had an earned run average between 3.46 and 4.18 in each season from 2022-24. He turned in a cumulative 3.74 mark across 431 innings over that stretch. Suárez has fanned a league average 21.5% of opposing hitters against an 8% walk rate. He has kept the ball on the ground at a robust 52.2% clip while allowing a lower than average hard contact rate in each season.
Spring training is beginning to kick off around the league, and as is perennially the case, there are a handful of notable free agents still looking for homes. That's of particular importance for the group of starting pitchers who still remain unsigned. Over the years, we've typically (not always) seen late-signing hitters struggle less than late-signing pitchers. Starting pitchers, in particular, seem to benefit from a full, gradual ramp-up rather than the sort of accelerated build that inherently comes with a mid-March signing.
Nick Pivetta stands as the most notable starter who's yet to find a landing spot. He's surely been impacted by the qualifying offer that's hanging over his head. Any team other than the incumbent Red Sox would need to forfeit at least one draft pick (possibly two, depending on CBT status) in order to sign the longtime Boston righty. Others still on the market include veteran mid-rotation or back-end starters Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Cal Quantrill, Ross Stripling, Lance Lynn and Patrick Corbin -- just to name some. (A full list can be seen here.)
This time of year, there's plenty of talk about teams that still need to add an arm. That can take different shapes, however. I wrote about the Mets' rotation for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers last week, but the Mets aren't necessarily the type of team that needs to go out and add an innings eater to step into the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. They have myriad options there already. Any addition for them, presumably, would be a clear-cut playoff starter. It's a similar situation with the Orioles, Cubs, Blue Jays and many other postseason hopefuls. Other clubs, like the Tigers and Pirates, have a mostly set group with a bevy of interesting young, MLB-ready top prospects knocking on the door. Signing Quintana or Gibson to eat innings likely isn't in the cards for teams in either of these groups.
At this stage of the offseason, some of those available free agents might need to wait for a spring injury or a trade to create the opportunity they seek. But there are still teams around the league that are rather clearly in need of some steady innings in the Nos. 3-5 spots in the rotation. Let's run through some clubs that have the need and, as crucially, the budget (or lack thereof) to add an established veteran arm to the back of the staff.
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