MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
Helllo friends.
Happy Valentine's Day! Or, as I like to call it, Happy My Birthday Eve! That's right, y'all -- much like a bearded Cupid, this cherubic lothario was born just a whisper from our Hallmark-created day of lo-oove. Fitting but a little on the nose, if I say so myself.
Any-who. I know you're not here for love-talk, you're ready to mainline some of that hot sleepiness right into your fantasy veins. Well, don't let me hold us back anymore. It's time to get back to America's #1 (probably) fantasy baseball fake award show...
It's the Sleepys!
On the transaction front, Spring Training's arrival opens extension season. Teams and players are free to talk extensions at any time of year, but it's most common in the lead-up to the start of the regular season. While most of those deals are for players early in their careers, there have been a few high-profile impending free agents (e.g. Rafael Devers, Ian Happ) who have recently signed extensions in the run-up to their platform years.
The Phillies pulled off the biggest extension of that ilk last spring. They kept Zack Wheeler off the market on a three-year term at a record-setting $42MM average annual value. That came a few months after the Phils brought back Aaron Nola on a seven-year contract early in free agency. For the third straight season, they're faced with the possibility of losing one of their most valuable pitchers to the open market.
Ranger Suárez is headed into his final year of club control. He and the Phillies already agreed to an $8.8MM salary to avoid arbitration. The question now is whether they want to initiate talks on a longer-term contract to try to keep him off next winter's open market. What kind of offer might that take, and how well-positioned are the Phils for another extended pitching investment?
Suárez, who turned 29 last August, has been a mid-rotation presence for three years running. The southpaw had an earned run average between 3.46 and 4.18 in each season from 2022-24. He turned in a cumulative 3.74 mark across 431 innings over that stretch. Suárez has fanned a league average 21.5% of opposing hitters against an 8% walk rate. He has kept the ball on the ground at a robust 52.2% clip while allowing a lower than average hard contact rate in each season.
Spring training is beginning to kick off around the league, and as is perennially the case, there are a handful of notable free agents still looking for homes. That's of particular importance for the group of starting pitchers who still remain unsigned. Over the years, we've typically (not always) seen late-signing hitters struggle less than late-signing pitchers. Starting pitchers, in particular, seem to benefit from a full, gradual ramp-up rather than the sort of accelerated build that inherently comes with a mid-March signing.
Nick Pivetta stands as the most notable starter who's yet to find a landing spot. He's surely been impacted by the qualifying offer that's hanging over his head. Any team other than the incumbent Red Sox would need to forfeit at least one draft pick (possibly two, depending on CBT status) in order to sign the longtime Boston righty. Others still on the market include veteran mid-rotation or back-end starters Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Cal Quantrill, Ross Stripling, Lance Lynn and Patrick Corbin -- just to name some. (A full list can be seen here.)
This time of year, there's plenty of talk about teams that still need to add an arm. That can take different shapes, however. I wrote about the Mets' rotation for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers last week, but the Mets aren't necessarily the type of team that needs to go out and add an innings eater to step into the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. They have myriad options there already. Any addition for them, presumably, would be a clear-cut playoff starter. It's a similar situation with the Orioles, Cubs, Blue Jays and many other postseason hopefuls. Other clubs, like the Tigers and Pirates, have a mostly set group with a bevy of interesting young, MLB-ready top prospects knocking on the door. Signing Quintana or Gibson to eat innings likely isn't in the cards for teams in either of these groups.
At this stage of the offseason, some of those available free agents might need to wait for a spring injury or a trade to create the opportunity they seek. But there are still teams around the league that are rather clearly in need of some steady innings in the Nos. 3-5 spots in the rotation. Let's run through some clubs that have the need and, as crucially, the budget (or lack thereof) to add an established veteran arm to the back of the staff.
MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a chat with today at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
In nearly every aspect, it's been a banner offseason for the Mets. They signed one of the most coveted free agents in MLB history to the largest contract in North American sports. They brought back a franchise cornerstone their preferred way: a short-term deal that doesn't run the risk of overcommitting long-term. They re-signed the lefty who carried their rotation in the season's second half in what looks like a potential late-blooming breakout. They grabbed one of the most underrated relievers not just in this year's class but throughout the sport in general. Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea and A.J. Minter make for a terrific quartet of headline additions, with a broad-reaching swath of depth moves also on the books.
Keeping Manaea was an undeniable boon to Carlos Mendoza's rotation, even if it came at a generally steep cost. As shown in MLBTR's Contract Tracker, Manaea is one of just five starters in the past decade to secure a $25MM AAV over three or more years beginning in his age-33 season or later. Teams generally are loath to commit this type of money in a pitcher's mid-30s, but the left-hander's performance and the bull market for starting pitching early in the winter coalesced to land him (and 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi) a rare contract for pitchers in this age bracket.
The rest of the Mets' moves in the rotation, however, have been lackluster. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns came to Queens with a reputation of eschewing long-term deals from his time heading up the Brewers' baseball operations department. There was some question as to how much of that stemmed from Milwaukee's perennially bottom-third payroll and how much was a philosophical directive from Stearns himself. The two offseasons with Stearns at the helm for the Mets don't represent a large enough sample to say he simply won't go long-term for a pitcher under any circumstances, but signs point to the likelihood that his avoidance of large-scale pitching contracts in his Brewers days wasn't solely a product of owner Mark Attanasio's frugality.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!
The Nationals have opted for another risk-averse offseason. At the end of last season, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo teased the possibility for an impact lineup addition.
“We need a couple of bats that can hit in the middle of the lineup and take the onus off some of these good young core players and assist them in the run creation of our offense. We have the core players to be middle-of-the-lineup hitters,” Rizzo told MLB.com’s Bill Ladson. That provided some hope that the Nats would make a big free agent push, but that has not come to be.
Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell have been Washington’s biggest lineup acquisitions. Lowe, whom the Nats acquired from Texas for reliever Robert Garcia, has been a well above-average hitter in three consecutive seasons. He’s a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. A reunion with Bell, who has been one of the game’s streakiest hitters throughout his career, on a $6MM free agent deal is less exciting.
Lowe, who will make between $10.3MM and $11.1MM in his penultimate arbitration season, has been Washington’s costliest acquisition for 2025. They took a $9MM flier on Michael Soroka and brought back Trevor Williams for two years and $14MM. They’ve made minimal commitments to Shinnosuke Ogasawara ($3.5MM over two years), Jorge López ($3MM) and Amed Rosario ($2MM). Williams and Ogasawara are the only players to whom they’ve committed multiple years. The latter’s contract pays him like a seventh or eighth starter. Lowe is under arbitration control for another season that could cost upwards of $15MM, but the Nationals could trade or non-tender him if they’re not keen on that price.
It wasn’t the kind of headline-grabbing offseason that suggests the front office felt they were a move or two away from pushing the top three teams in the NL East. They remain the fourth-best team in the division on paper. Lowe could be a legitimate 2-3 win upgrade over last year’s collection of first basemen, who hit just .241/.310/.376. Beyond that, they’re mostly relying on internal improvements.
The Nationals dramatically cut spending during their rebuild. The Lerner family considered selling the franchise and didn’t want to saddle potential buyers with long-term deals. While they’re no longer actively exploring the sale possibility, maybe they haven’t given Rizzo and his front office leeway to make a significant splash.
If that’s the case, the front office’s actions have been understandable if largely unexciting. This roster still seems to be a year away from viable playoff contention. Pursuits of even upper middle tier free agents like Anthony Santander or Sean Manaea were unlikely to change that. They were never going to seriously threaten the Mets, Yankees, etc. on Juan Soto. A top-of-the-rotation arm like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried might have provided the ceiling boost needed in the rotation, but that requires an ownership group willing to approve a $200MM+ free agent deal.
Ya-aawwwwwn. Much like the mighty grizzly bear, I've spent the cold winter months of the midwest hibernating in my west county burrow. The calendar has now flipped to February, though, and I've awakened to see all of the telltale signs heralding the full arrival of fantasy baseball season... Football is finally ending and birds are almost chirping, while dozens of podcasts extensively extol the virtues of the same seven players. And just yesterday, Eno Sarris emerged from his local craft brewery and saw his own merm's shadow, officially ushering in 30 more weeks of content. Huzzah!
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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