NL East Notes: Mets, Maldonado, Realmuto, Harper
Some rumblings from around the NL East…
- The Mets were linked to Martin Maldonado in early November, though talks “haven’t materialized” as of yet between the team and Maldonado’s camp, the New York Post’s Mike Puma writes. Catcher remains a position of need for the Mets, though they’ve already seen one trade target (Yan Gomes) get dealt to a division rival in Washington, while their impending trade of some top prospects in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal could mean New York doesn’t have the minor league depth to acquire J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. Puma wonders if this means the Mets could circle back to Yasmani Grandal, another player that drew some early interest from the Amazins as the free agent market opened.
- In regards to Realmuto, the Mets and Phillies may not be realistic contenders for the catcher’s services, as the New York Post’s Joel Sherman hears from an official with the Nationals or Braves that “Miami is not trading him in the division.” It had previously been surmised that the Marlins’ huge asking price in a Realmuto trade was what turned D.C. and Atlanta to alternate catching solutions (i.e. Gomes, Kurt Suzuki, and Brian McCann), though it stands to reason that the Marlins could’ve wanted a particularly big premium in order to send Realmuto elsewhere in the NL West.
- Also from Sherman’s piece, he is “surprised how many executives and agents I speak to feel” Bryce Harper will re-sign with the Nationals and Manny Machado will sign with the Phillies. The Machado/Philadelphia connection is no surprise (45.8% of readers in the MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest chose Machado to the Phillies), though there has much less speculation about the possibility of Harper staying put. The general consensus has been that the Nats would go forward with an outfield mix of Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, and Victor Robles, and that they would recoup the draft pick compensation owed to them via the qualifying offer once Harper signed elsewhere. On the flip side, only a few teams would fit as potential candidates for Harper given his $400+ asking price, and the Nats do have a long history of handing out big money to Scott Boras clients.
- The Mets have longtime Yankees minor league pitching coach Scott Aldred on their list of bullpen coach candidates, according to Puma (Twitter link). Aldred is currently working a roving pitching coordinator in the Yankees’ farm system after spending the previous decade as a pitching coach at multiple minor league levels, including a lengthy stint at Triple-A.
NL East Rumors: Fish, Realmuto, Braves, Keuchel, Phils, M’s
A few National League East-themed rumblings…
- The Braves reunited with catcher Brian McCann in free agency Wednesday, giving them a decent behind-the-plate tandem with him and Tyler Flowers. Atlanta’s not necessarily out of the sweepstakes for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, though, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this week (subscription link). It appears Miami would need to significantly lower its asking price in order for Realmuto to join the NL East rival Braves, however. Per Rosenthal, the Marlins requested second baseman Ozzie Albies and more from the Braves in the teams’ discussions. Unsurprisingly, the Braves haven’t been willing to part with the 21-year-old Albies, who turned in a 3.8-fWAR rookie campaign in 2018 and is under wraps for the foreseeable future, for two seasons of control over Realmuto, 27.
- Sticking with the Braves, free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel is “high on their wish list,” Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Keuchel rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in favor of reaching the open market, but because the Braves received revenue sharing and didn’t exceed the competitive balance tax in 2018, they’d only lose their third-highest draft pick in signing him. While Keuchel does figure to ink one of the richest contracts in this winter’s free-agent class, the Braves may have the money to reel him in, even after committing a combined $25MM to McCann and Josh Donaldson this week. Atlanta has plenty of young starting pitching on hand, but it’s arguably in need of a quality veteran starter like the soon-to-be 31-year-old Keuchel – especially with integral 2018 contributor Anibal Sanchez now a free agent and Julio Teheran looking like a potential trade chip.
- More from Rosenthal, who tweets that the Mariners have shown interest in Phillies shortstop J.P. Crawford in the clubs’ talks centering on Seattle’s Jean Segura. Acquiring Segura wouldn’t take the Phillies out of the running for free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, Rosenthal adds. If the Phillies were to land both, they’d use Segura at short and Machado at third, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Although, considering Machado has made it known he prefers shortstop, Salisbury notes that it’s unclear whether Philadelphia would be able to sell him on the hot corner – where he has spent the majority of his career. As for Crawford, he’s young (24 in January), affordable and controllable for a while, making him a fit for the rebuilding Mariners in those respects. Crawford hasn’t lived up to the elite prospect billing he once had, however. Across 138 major league plate appearances last season, Crawford turned in a passable batting line (.214/.319/.393 – good for a 96 wRC+), though he also posted subpar defensive numbers (minus-6 DRS, minus-3.4 UZR) in 229 innings at short.
East Notes: Realmuto, Yankees, Sanchez, Markakis, Rays
The market for star Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto seems to be reaching a fever pitch, with the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Giants among the latest teams to “show interest,” says Fancred’s Jon Heyman. The odds of an extension for the backstop seem infinitesimal at this juncture, with sources “suggesting” that the proposed figure was in range of the massive extension signed by Giants catcher Buster Posey prior to the start of the 2013 season. Whether or not the ask was mere posturing on the part of Realmuto, whose agent Jeff Berry seemed to make clear the 27-year-old’s intentions on a radio show in late October, is unknown, but it seems a near certainty the Oklahoma-born product will be moved at some point this offseason.
In other news from around the region . . .
- Per Heyman, the Yankees seem to be willing to include Gary Sanchez in a deal for Realmuto, but only in something approximating a straight-up swap. Sanchez, who has four remaining years of team control to Realmuto’s two, has turned off some admirers with his indifferent play behind the plate and propensity for the long slump, but is nevertheless an extremely valuable asset in today’s desiccated offensive landscape behind the dish. Indeed, Steamer actually projects the 26-year-old Sanchez to be nearly as valuable next season as the elder Realmuto (3.5 WAR, to the latter’s 3.7), pegging him for a 116 wRC+ to Realmuto’s 108. It should be noted, too, that analytical models are far more bullish on Sanchez’s much-maligned defense than the general public: DRS, after all, sees Sanchez as clearly superior to the Marlin star over the last three seasons, while Baseball Prospectus, though higher on Realmuto, mostly agrees, seeing the Dominican-born backstop as generally above-average over the same frame. The Marlins, though, seem to find the package insufficient without other “top pieces” involved, which scenario would almost surely be a non-starter for the Bombers.
- Outfielder Nick Markakis “remains a candidate” to return to Atlanta, and is a “more likely fit” than Michael Brantley, per Heyman. Markakis, a Georgia native, enjoyed a blissful ’18 renaissance in the last year of his 4 year, $44MM deal signed prior the 2015 season, slashing .297/.366/.440 in hitter-friendly SunTrust Park on the way to 2.6 fWAR, his first two-win-plus season with the Braves. Atlanta, of course, continues its search for offensive upgrades even after the inking of Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal, but doesn’t see outfielder A.J. Pollock as a likely target, according to Heyman. The 35-year-old Markakis, though, had posted five consecutive sub-.400 slugging percentage seasons before the last, and has never been a particularly nimble defender in a corner. Atlanta, at this point in the offseason, may be setting its sights a little higher in its dogged pursuit of an outfielder.
- Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays are “considering high-end upgrades” across the diamond. Topkin lists Noah Syndergaard, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nelson Cruz, among others, as potential options, and notes that the team’s monetary resources far outshine those of past seasons. The Rays, perhaps more than any other team, are rife with young talent, with logjams up the middle and on the corners, and have considerable prospect capital with which to deal, so multiple major upgrades cannot, at this point in the offseason, be ruled out.
Marlins Re-Sign Bryan Holaday To Minor League Deal
The Marlins have agreed to re-sign veteran catcher Bryan Holaday to a minor league contract, tweets Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. He’ll be invited to Major League Spring Training and again compete for a roster spot.
Holaday, 31, spent the 2018 season as the primary backup to star catcher (and trade candidate) J.T. Realmuto. The well-traveled veteran appeared in 61 games for Miami and tallied 166 plate appearances, though he struggled considerably, hitting just .205/.261/.258 in that time.
Holaday has long struggled to get on base, but his defensive contributions in 2018 were readily apparent. He threw out a league-leading 45 percent of would-be base thieves (17-for-38) and, per Baseball Prospectus, delivered above-average marks in terms of both pitch framing and blocking.
Chad Wallach is the only catcher other than Realmuto who is presently on the Marlins’ roster, so they’ll need some additional depth whether Realmuto is traded or retained. In the event of a trade, it’s unlikely that Holaday would be in line for regular work in Miami — he’s never topped 171 PAs in a big league season — but he’ll likely be in the race for a roster spot regardless of how Miami’s offseason shakes out.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/27/18
We’ll track today’s minor moves from around the league here…
- The Cardinals announced yesterday that right-hander Derian Gonzalez has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Memphis. The 23-year-old pitched to a 3.51 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB.9 across three levels (Rookie, Double-A, Triple-A) in 33 1/3 innings during an injury-shortened 2018 season. That marked the first action in either Double-A or Triple-A for Gonzalez.
- Left-hander Hoby Milner cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A by the Rays, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). He’ll head to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee in hopes of once again cracking the roster. The 27-year-old Milner (28 in January) owns a 3.03 ERA in 38 2/3 big league innings, but there’s a fair bit of smoke and mirrors at play in that regard. Milner has just 7.0 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9 in the Majors and has stranded an unsustainable 86.2 percent of the runners he’s put on base. Fielding-independent metrics cast a much less favorable picture than his ERA (5.30 FIP, 5.65 xFIP, 5.07 SIERA). To his credit, Milner has held lefties to a laughable .177/.292/.277 slash through 98 plate appearances.
- The Marlins announced that right-hander Ben Meyer and outfielder Braxton Lee have both cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A New Orleans and Double-A Jacksonville, repsectively. The 25-year-old Meyer made his MLB debut in 2018 but was hammered for 22 runs in 19 innings. The 2017 season was much better for the righty, as he worked to a 2.02 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 111 1/3 innings — albeit against much younger competition between Class-A and Class-A Advanced. Lee, meanwhile won a Double-A batting title in 2017 but hit just .233/.316/.294 across three minor league levels in 2018 in addition to a weak showing in a brief MLB debut of his own (18 plate appearances). Lee received plus grades for his speed and above-average marks for his outfield defense in the past but has never shown any power.
- The Marlins have signed outfielder Harold Ramirez to a minor league contract, per John Dreker of PiratesProspects.com (Twitter link). The 24-year-old Ramirez spent a third consecutive season at the Double-A level in 2018 and put together a strong campaign, hitting .320/.365/.471 with 11 homers, 37 doubles and 16 steals in 505 trips to the plate. Ramirez was once considered to be on the fringes of the game’s top 100 prospects, but his stock has dipped in recent seasons — particularly in 2017 (.678 OPS in his second full season of Double-A ball).
- Australian righty Todd Van Steensel tweeted last night that he’s signed a minor league pact with the Padres. The 27-year-old has spent the past six seasons in the Twins organization, where he’s topped out at the Double-A level. Van Steensel has a career 2.11 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9 in 110 2/3 innings at that level, with all but two of his 66 Double-A appearances coming out of the bullpen.
Derek Dietrich Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency
Infielder/outfielder Derek Dietrich has elected free agency after clearing waivers, the Marlins announced today. He had been designated for assignment recently.
Dietrich, 29, possesses a quality left-handed bat that would aid many contending lineups. He also has a varied positional background, but he’s not considered a very good defender at any of the spots — second base, third base, and the corner outfield — he has tried out over the years.
Clearly, no other clubs were interested in paying the projected $4.8MM Dietrich would have commanded in arbitration. He’ll now be available to the highest bidder, with any acquiring team also picking up an added season of arb control (assuming he signs a one-year pact).
That rate of pay would be quite reasonable if Dietrich could even hold his own in the field, but defensive metrics have always been skeptical and it seems the scouts agree. He moved out of the infield in 2018 as the Marlins tried to find a fit, but his time on the grass hasn’t gone well either. Dietrich has graded quite poorly in left field over 1,120 career innings.
All that said, it still stands to reason that Dietrich will get some bites in free agency from clubs that like the idea of utilizing him as a bench bat that can at least plausibly fill in around the diamond. It doesn’t help that there are so many useful infielders floating around the market, but few can match his overall offensive productivity.
Through 1,716 plate appearances over the past four years, Dietrich owns a .262/.344/.428 batting line with 46 home runs — good for a 114 OPS+. He’s best utilized against right-handed pitching, which limits his overall utility but does mean he could occupy the larger share of a potential platoon pairing.
Poll: Should The Marlins Trade J.T. Realmuto This Offseason?
Entering the offseason, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Marlins would trade their best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto, prior to the 2019 campaign. Not only is Miami a rebuilding team whose control over Realmuto is dwindling (he’s due to become a free agent after 2020), but the 27-year-old has shown no desire to sign an extension with the club.
At this point, a trade of Realmuto hardly seems imminent, but considering the offseason’s still in its infancy, there’s ample time for a deal to come together. However, in order for that to happen, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price for Realmuto, as Buster Olney of ESPN reported Nov. 16 that the Fish are seeking a “beyond staggering” return for the All-Star backstop. Since then, National League East rival Washington – a well-known Realmuto suitor – may have taken itself out of the sweepstakes by signing Kurt Suzuki to a two-year, $10MM contract in free agency. The Nationals could still try for Realmuto, who’d form an elite tandem with Suzuki, but there’s clearly less of a need for them to pay a bounty for a catcher than there was at the outset of the offseason.
Certainly, should talks between the Nationals and Marlins end or continue to stagnate, there would still be a slew of teams interested in Realmuto. As arguably the majors’ premier catcher, Realmuto would easily improve other prospective 2019-20 contenders such as the Astros, Rockies, Mets, Athletics, Brewers, Braves and Dodgers, to name some. As of now, though, the sense from other clubs is that the Marlins will retain Realmuto heading into next season, per Olney.
Because the Marlins seem unlikely to contend in the next two years, it’s fair to wonder whether they’d be mistaken in holding Realmuto this winter. In the Marlins’ view, Realmuto’s value actually increased in 2018, according to Olney, though it may be unrealistic on their part to expect a repeat in 2019. Even if the well-rounded Realmuto continues his run as a top-tier catcher next season, his diminishing team control isn’t going to do his trade value any favors. Plus, by keeping Realmuto, Miami would run the risk of a decline in performance and/or a significant injury – either of which would be disastrous from its perspective.
While many are tired of seeing the Marlins sell off proven veterans, as they did last offseason with Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon, they may not have a choice with Realmuto. Even after last winter’s firesale, the Marlins continue to feature a below-average farm system, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball America. Moving Realmuto would immediately better their outlook on that front, and if they’re going to trade him, it may be in their best interests to do so in the next few weeks. After all, with bona fide No. 1 options Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos headlining the free-agent catcher class, Miami could soon have two fewer suitors for Realmuto if it doesn’t act quickly.
Quick Hits: Realmuto, Mariners, Myers, Kia Tigers
The Marlins have put a very high price on J.T. Realmuto in trade talks, which isn’t surprising given Realmuto’s status as arguably the best catcher in baseball. Since Realmuto may never be as valuable as he is now, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) argues that Miami needs to swing a deal this winter rather than risk the chance that Realmuto is injured or has a downturn in production in 2019. Some rival teams feel that Realmuto will still be a Marlin on Opening Day since the team is simply asking for too much in return, possibly due to a feeling that they didn’t get enough back in last winter’s trades of Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Giancarlo Stanton. Olney observes that the Nationals already made a quick pivot to another catcher in Kurt Suzuki, which could be a sign that other teams engaged in the Realmuto talks might also explore alternatives unless Miami lowers its demands.
More from around the baseball world as we wrap up Thanksgiving…
- With the trades of Mike Zunino and James Paxton, the Mariners have indicated that they plan to “step back” in 2019, as GM Jerry Dipoto told the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other reporters. Divish explores what this strategy could mean for the rest of the Mariners’ offseason plans, particularly since Dipoto indicated the desire for a pretty quick turnaround, with the M’s theoretically ready to contend again as early as 2020. This means that longer-term pieces like Mitch Haniger, Edwin Diaz, and Marco Gonzales are less likely to be traded, as Dipoto “would have to be blown away to move players like that,” the GM said, though “we are going to stay open-minded to anything with a general ‘never say never.’ “
- An alternative to this partial Mariners selloff is proposed by Buster Olney, who argues in another subscription-only piece that the M’s should go into a full-blown fire sale, a la the complete teardowns the Cubs and Astros underwent to rebuild their franchises into World Series winners. Under Olney’s plan, everyone on Seattle’s roster would be available — he suggests Haniger could be shopped to teams that miss out on Bryce Harper, while an elite closer like Diaz has limited value on a team that isn’t preparing to immediately contend.
- The Mariners and Padres discussed a trade scenario that would’ve seen Jean Segura and Mike Leake go to San Diego with Wil Myers coming back to Seattle, though Divish hears from sources that the negotiations took place over two weeks ago and don’t appear to be ongoing. From San Diego’s perspective, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell looks at the pros and cons of trading Myers, who is the most experienced and productive (and expensive) member of the crowded Padres outfield.
- Former big leaguers Roger Bernadina and Pat Dean won’t be returning to the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kia Tigers next season, according to a Yonhap News report, as the Tigers are reportedly looking to get younger. Jeremy Hazelbaker and Jacob Turner were both recently signed by the Tigers to fill the international player roster slots formerly occupied by Bernadina and Dean. Last appearing in MLB in 2014, Bernadina has performed very well in two seasons in the KBO, so it would stand to reason that he would consider signing with another Korean team if he isn’t interested in exploring a return to North American baseball.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/22/18
Rounding up some recent minor league transactions from around the baseball world….
- The Marlins have signed outfielder Gabriel Guerrero to a minor league deal, as Guerrero announced on his personal Instagram page. The 24-year-old has bounced around the farm systems of the Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Reds during his eight-year pro career, finally cracking the big leagues in 2018 by appearing in 14 games for Cincinnati. He was outrighted off the Reds’ 40-man roster in October, paving the way for another trip to free agency. Guerrero has a .273/.314/.413 slash line and 80 home runs over 3612 PA in the minors, showing glimpses of potential but never really establishing himself as a top-tier prospect.
- The White Sox re-signed first baseman Matt Skole to a minors deal, as per Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Originally a fifth-round pick for the Nationals in the 2011 draft and a noteworthy prospect in Washington’s farm system, injuries hampered Skole’s progress, and he didn’t make his MLB debut until last season. After joining Chicago’s organization as a minor league free agent last winter, Skole appeared in four games for the Sox and accumulated 13 plate appearances, before being outrighted following the season. The 29-year-old Skole has a career .250/.356/.441 slash line and 116 homers over 3284 career PA in the minors.
- Also from Eddy, the Mariners signed infielder Orlando Calixte to a minors pact. Calixte spent all of 2018 at the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate before electing to become a free agent after the season. Calixte has been a shortstop for much of his nine-year professional career, though he has also seen significant time as a second and third baseman, and in all three outfield spots. This versatility helped him reach the majors in 2015 (two games with the Royals) and 2017 (29 games with the Giants) despite only hitting a modest .249/.303/.385 over 3628 PA in the minors.
Trade & Free Agent Rumors: Dodgers, Indians, Phils, Harvey, Goldschmidt, Brantley
Always active on the offseason trade market, the Dodgers have been having “lots” of discussions with the Indians regarding a variety of potential scenarios, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Los Angeles unsurprisingly is intrigued by Cleveland’s pitching — as all teams would be — and Rosenthal notes that catcher Yan Gomes could make sense there as well. Conversely, Cleveland has a significant need in the outfield — an area of depth for Los Angeles. There’s no indication that there’s anything especially close to fruition between the two sides, and Rosenthal even notes that both clubs are chatting with several other teams. The Dodgers, for instance, are one of the many clubs with interest in Marlins star J.T. Realmuto.
Some more chatter on the trade and free-agent markets…
- Carlos Santana‘s name has come up on the rumor mill early in the offseason, but Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Phillies also have relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter “on the block.” Reports since the team’s late-season collapse have indicated that the Phillies will be open to trading just about any player other than Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins, so it’s only reasonable that they’d be open to moving either relatively high-priced setup man. Neshek is owed $7.75MM and has a $750K buyout on an option for the 2020 season, while Hunter is owed $9MM and will be a free agent next offseason.
- Heyman also tweets that in addition to the Reds, Matt Harvey is drawing some level of interest from the Athletics. Cincinnati’s interest in Harvey has been well-documented, as he won over some decision-makers in the organization during his four-month run with the Reds. As for Oakland, their search for rotation help is no secret. It’s unlikely that the cost-conscious A’s will be players for the highest-priced options on the free-agent market, making second- and third-tier options
- The Twins checked in on Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com, though the report describes the talks as “preliminary.” While Minnesota has an obvious opening at first base following the retirement of Joe Mauer, though, Dan Hayes of The Athletic downplays the possibility of a Goldschmidt pursuit for Minnesota (Twitter link); Hayes notes that the Twins did make some form of inquiry but adds that this “doesn’t appear to be a path the Twins will go down.” The fit is obvious, but Arizona’s asking price on the perennial MVP candidate will be quite high, and he’s a free agent after the 2019 season.
- Morosi also tweets that the Cardinals have “maintain[ed] interest” in free-agent outfielder Michael Brantley, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests (via Twitter) that Brantley isn’t a top priority for St. Louis. Per Goold, the Cards would need to miss out on more preferable targets and perhaps move other pieces of the roster before embarking on a legitimate pursuit of the 31-year-old. Brantley is coming off a strong season in which he hit .309/.364/.468 with 17 homers, 36 doubles and 12 steals, but the Cards do have in-house alternatives and are known to be looking at bigger fish (i.e. Bryce Harper).