The Marlins could add a veteran outfielder within the next week or so, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, who names free agents Melky Cabrera, Jon Jay and Jose Bautista as possibilities (though Jay isn’t atop their list, Frisaro notes). Miami is indeed “exploring” signing someone to a major league contract, according to president Michael Hill. Doing so would put the Marlins over the 40-man roster limit, but they’re “prepared to” jettison a player if necessary, per Hill. Notably, all of Cabrera, Jay and Bautista either have ties to Marlins decision-makers or Florida. Cabrera played with Marlins part-owner Derek Jeter with the Yankees from 2006-09, and manager Don Mattingly was on New York’s coaching staff during a portion of that stretch. Jay is a Miami native, meanwhile, and Bautista resides in the state. Any of the three would immediately become the most established outfielder on a rebuilding Marlins team that has traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna in separate deals this winter.
Marlins Rumors
Marlins, Astros Discussing J.T. Realmuto
Count the reigning World Series champion Astros among the most serious suitors for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. Houston and Miami have discussed the backstop, according to SiriusXM’s Craig Mish, who adds that the Marlins have requested high-end outfield prospect Kyle Tucker in return. The Astros haven’t ruled out dealing Tucker, Mish reports (Twitter link).
Realmuto would be the second major trade acquisition of the winter for the Astros, who previously dipped into their pool of young talent to pick up right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates. Despite that move, the Astros’ farm system remains in the majors’ top 10, according to Baseball America, which regards the 21-year-old Tucker as their second-best prospect and the majors’ 15th-ranked farmhand. MLB.com (No. 8) FanGraphs (No. 10), Baseball Prospectus (No. 20) and ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 21) also think highly of the lefty-swinging Tucker, who ascended to the Double-A level in 2017 and slashed .265/.325/.512 across 318 plate appearances.
Should the Marlins land Tucker, he’d become arguably the premier prospect in a system that has climbed from dead last to 19th in Baseball America’s rankings since the beginning of the offseason. Of course, the Marlins’ improved farm is the result of an aggressive major league teardown that has come during a payroll-slashing campaign by new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter. The Marlins have already dealt star outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, not to mention second baseman Dee Gordon, leaving Realmuto as the face of a team that seems unlikely to contend in the near future.
The 26-year-old Realmuto, sensing Miami is more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth in 2018, has made it known he’d like to follow Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna and Gordon out the door. Given that he wants to play for a contender, going to Houston would surely satisfy Realmuto, and it would give the club a potential long-term solution behind the plate. While the Astros got solid production from catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis in 2017, the two 30-somethings could become free agents next winter. Moreover, Gattis will primarily occupy the DH spot this year, leaving the unproven, out-of-options Max Stassi as the Astros’ projected No. 2 catcher.
Unlike Stassi, Realmuto has done plenty to establish himself in the majors. He truly broke out in 2016 and has since accounted for 7.2 fWAR, trailing only the Giants’ Buster Posey and the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez in that category among catchers. Most of Realmuto’s value has come from his bat, as the righty-swinger combined for a quality .290/.337/.440 line across 1,124 plate appearances from 2016-17.
While there have been questions about Realmuto’s defense (his reviews as a pitch framer have been mixed), both his bat and long-term affordability combine to make him extremely valuable, which has led to offseason interest from contenders such as the Astros and Nationals. Realmuto is set to play his first of three potential arbitration-eligible seasons in 2018, during which he’ll make a relatively modest $2.9MM.
Marlins Notes: Realmuto, Chen, Ziegler, Outfield, Starlin
Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto told reporters today that he’s had multiple conversations with president of baseball operations Michael Hill and manager Don Mattingly about whether or not he’ll be traded, but he hasn’t gotten a firm answer one way or the other (hat tip to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald). He also said that he has not spoken with part-owner Derek Jeter directly about the subject. That Realmuto hasn’t gotten a firm answer is entirely unsurprising; he’s a valuable trade asset, and the team can’t guarantee that anyone will rise to meet their asking price. They’ve been fielding offers on him for quite some time, and the countdown to opening day has now dwindled to under two months. Realmuto, of course, has been vocal throughout the offseason in his desire to be traded to another club. It was reported that the backstop requested a trade out Miami as early as mid-December, at which point the Fish had already shipped out Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna. Recent comments from his agent indicate that his stance hasn’t changed, and an arbitration defeat at Miami’s hands certainly won’t do anything to budge that stance.
A few other items out of Miami…
- Hill says that lefty Wei-Yin Chen has been cleared to throw, and projects to be in the Marlins’ rotation (h/t Joe Frisaro of MLB.com). Whether or not he’ll be ready for the start of the season is uncertain. The 32-year-old Chen missed the bulk of last season due to recurring elbow issues, and is owed $60MM through the 2020 season. If he can remain healthy, he’ll likely slot in as the number two starter behind Dan Straily.
- Hill also mentioned that Brad Ziegler is the team’s closer headed into spring training camp. Ziegler took over as the team’s closer last season following a trade of A.J. Ramos to the Mets, saving ten games for the club. His overall performance, however, left much to be desired; the soft-tosser’s 4.79 ERA isn’t indicative of a high-leverage reliever, and his 4.98 K/9 was the fourth-lowest among MLB relievers with at least 30 innings pitched. However, having Ziegler in a ninth-inning role will prevent young strikeout artists Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider from accruing saves that would otherwise boost their future arbitration raises.
- Mattingly has Derek Dietrich “penciled in” as the starting left fielder (h/t Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald). The rest of the outfield picture, however, is “wide open.” The Marlins, of course, traded their entire starting outfield from last season; Stanton, Ozuna and Christian Yelich will all suit up for other clubs, leaving the team with a significant void to fill. Count recent outfield acquisitions Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra among the players who will compete for those jobs in camp.
- Despite trade speculation earlier in the offseason, infielder Starlin Castro says he expects to be with the club come opening day (hat tip again to Jackson). The former Yankee adds that he is “happy to be here,” and is not looking to be traded now. Castro figures to open the season as the team’s second baseman. He put up a .300/.338/.454 slash line while playing for New York last season (good for a 110 wRC+), and chipped in a pair of stolen bases.
Derek Jeter Discusses Opening Months As Marlins CEO
Marlins CEO Derek Jeter has received quite a lot of criticism since he and Bruce Sherman spearheaded a successful bid to acquire the organization from oft-criticized predecessor Jeffrey Loria. Payroll-trimming and rebuilding-oriented player transactions such as those the Marlins have undertaken do generally have a tendency to spur some harsh reactions, though surely there were a few other actions from the incoming leadership that also generated ill will.
In a must-read piece, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated takes an extended look at the past few months in Miami, centered upon discussions with Jeter and other key members of the organization. While the article ought to be digested in full, there are a few particularly relevant bits of information that are worthy of highlighting here.
For one thing, the story includes some differing perspective on the financial arrangement that Jeter has with the organization he runs. Some eyebrows were raised when Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported (as one part of a five-part series) that Jeter would earn a $5MM salary and could add additional bonuses for achieving profitability. “The speculation of what they say my salary is—$5 million?—that’s not true,” says Jeter, who also denies that his contract calls for him to receive bonuses based on the team’s profits. “And then I get a bonus based on what? … Not true. That’s not true.”
Additionally, some other reports had suggested Jeter’s investment level with the organization was $25MM, meaning he’d likely recoup his buy-in within five or less years, though the Herald and now Verducci suggest the real number is $37.9MM. “I keep hearing about my ‘modest’ investment,” Jeter tells Verducci. “I wish that were the case. One, it’s not small. And two, that’s not accurate, no.” Verducci says Jeter wouldn’t confirm the details, but did add that his stake is “higher than 25 [million].”
Beyond the questions surrounding his own finances, Jeter tells Verducci that the media has misrepresented ownership’s financial resources as well as its plans and attendance/revenue goals in future seasons by relying on an outdated investor prospective. The ongoing search for capital is about enhancing the local connections of the ownership group, he says. And while Jeter seemingly acknowledged that the Herald has in fact accurately represented a copy of the investors’ one-time business plan, titled Project Wolverine, he suggests things have changed quite a bit since the sale went through, with the team’s exact initiatives, milestones and objectives evolving in the past few months. (Jackson, in initially reporting the contents of Project Wolverine, did note that the copy he had obtained dated back to August.)
Jeter’s vision of a thriving, community-oriented organization both on and off the field seems uncontroversial, though many have doubted whether the plan — the apparent details of which have mostly been known through the Project Wolverine reporting — is in any way realistic. But Verducci writes that Jeter has been working hard, focusing especially on engaging the local business community, striving to find new revenue streams, and ultimately maximizing traditional revenue streams (tickets and TV) to put the organization on firmer footing.
Unquestionably, there’ll be an ongoing connection between the Marlins’ fortunes on and off the field. Jeter did not go much into specifics of the organization’s vision, beyond making clear that there will be high standards for all players at all levels and emphasizing that the organization won’t waver from its plans. He noted, too, that there’s an ongoing effort to boost the team’s analytics department.
The rookie CEO acknowledges the difficulties, but also says he won’t back down from a positive vision. “I’m not saying we don’t have lofty goals,” says Jeter. “People are so focused on the model from August. It’s changed. We’ve found out quite a bit since we got in here.” As for the idea that it’s unrealistic to expect major changes in the organization’s ability to earn, Jeter suggests he believes the fans will come if the team is run the right way. “I will never apologize for believing in the Miami market,” he adds.
There are loads of other interesting details to peruse. Verducci spends some time on how things went down with the Giancarlo Stanton trade, with president of baseball ops Michael Hill firmly defending the process as well as the package ultimately received. Relatedly, Jeter argued that the team had little choice but to blow up the roster to some extent. While he maintains that the team hoped to keep Stanton — a dubious proposition given just how expensive he was — Jeter says that even adding two high-end starters would not have made the roster into a winner. (“They still wouldn’t have won. So you just dig a bigger hole, and eventually you have to get out of it.”) The piece also goes into the variety of non-player personnel controversies that have arisen. In particular, Hill defends the controversial decision not to renew the contract of cancer-stricken scout Marty Scott and also suggests that Jeter had nothing to do with that matter.
None of the comments from Jeter and the rest of his front office cohort give much of an indication of how things will play out on the MLB roster in the near term. Catcher J.T. Realmuto, infielder Starlin Castro, starter Dan Straily, and a few other veterans still seem to be very realistic trade candidates, either before the start of the season or in the run-up to the trade deadline. With the team’s payroll pressures largely relieved — through the Stanton swap and three other highly significant trades this winter — perhaps there’s greater flexibility in weighing future moves. While on-field expectations will be exceedingly modest for 2018, the continued presence of potential trade chips means there’s still plenty of intrigue left for the Marlins front office over the coming weeks and months.
Marlins Linked To Jon Jay
- Jon Jay “appears to be a consideration” for the Marlins in free agency, FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column. Jay has some local ties, having played his college ball at Miami, though it’s not entirely clear at this point how much the Marlins are willing to spend. Heyman suggests that their payroll is south of the $85MM mark at present, though between the commitments to Wei-Yin Chen ($10MM salary + $8MM deferred signing bonus payment this June), Martin Prado ($13.5MM), Starlin Castro ($10MM), Brad Ziegler ($9MM), Junichi Tazawa ($7MM), Derek Dietrich ($2.9MM), Justin Bour ($3.4MM), J.T. Realmuto ($2.9MM) and Miguel Rojas ($1.18MM) they’re at nearly $68MM. Add in the $13MM they owe Edinson Volquez, the remaining unresolved arb case of Dan Straily and a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and it’d seem they’re still north of $90MM.
East Notes: Marlins, Arroyo, E-Rod, Mets
A 2008 agreement between Miami-Dade county and Jeffrey Loria (and his partners) saw the county fund most of the $515 million government-owned Marlins stadium in Little Havana. In exchange, the county was promised the right to 5 percent of any profits Loria & co. earned if they sold the team within 10 years. Yet Loria’s lawyers have released documents telling the county not to expect any money at all from last year’s $1.2 billion sale of the Marlins, Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald writes. The reasoning from Loria’s camp is that his accountants claim the sale amounted to a net loss of $141MM. The breakdown they offer begins with a $625MM agreed-to underlying value of the franchise, $280MM in debt, circa $300MM in taxes tied to the sale and a write-off of the $30MM fee paid to financial advisors. Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez says that the city may sue to collect the taxpayers’ fair share of that $1.2 billion. My message is that this community really allowed you to make a lot of money,” he said on Friday. “He should do the right thing. He made profits, and he made big profits. He should share that with the people who allowed him to do that.”
Here are a few other tidbits from around the league’s Eastern teams…
- Newly-acquired Rays infielder Christian Arroyo was working out at Tropicana Field on Friday morning, Bill Chastain of MLB.com writes. MLB Pipeline’s 81st overall prospect saw his 2017 season end due to a broken hand, but surgeon Donald Sheridan cleared him for baseball activities after a visit on January 9th. “The hand is great,” Arroyo said. “Right now, it’s about getting back into baseball shape.” The 22-year-old came to Tampa Bay in this winter’s trade that sent Evan Longoria to San Francisco. He hit .192/.244/.304 across 135 plate appearances with the Giants last year in his first taste of big-league action, and figures to be in the Rays’ infield mix for the coming season.
- Speaking of young players returning from injury, Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez could potentially miss a few starts at the beginning of the season after undergoing right knee patellofemoral ligament reconstruction surgery, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. “[The injury] happened, like, three times already,” Rodriguez pointed out. “I was just trying to fight to pitch with a knee like that. And I did it. Sometimes there would be ups and downs. Now it’s time to get back to the guy I was before I got the surgery.” The 24-year-old southpaw’s had his share of ups and downs across parts of three seasons with the Red Sox. Last season, he put up 137 1/3 innings for the club while striking out 9.83 batters per nine and posting a 4.19 ERA overall.
- Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier are currently the Mets’ leading choices in their search for an infielder, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports via Twitter. They’re apparently leery of getting “used” by Frazier (presumably for leverage) if he prefers the Yankees as his ultimate destination. In addition, the Mets are reportedly reluctant to bring back second baseman Neil Walker, and aren’t getting any traction in their efforts to acquire Josh Harrison from the Pirates. Lastly, Rosenthal adds that the team is interested in signing Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn out of free agency if their prices dip low enough.
Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto Still Hoping For Trade
Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto requested a trade out of Miami in December, owing to a lack of desire to play for a franchise that’s in the midst of a monumental teardown. At the time, the Marlins had already traded three of their top players – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon. Nearly two months later, Realmuto remains on the Marlins’ roster, though they parted with yet another star (Christian Yelich) last week. Unsurprisingly, then, Realmuto continues to hope for a trade prior to the season, his agent, Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball, told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
“No matter how his arbitration hearing turned out, J.T.’s preference remains the same,” said Berry. “He would like to be traded to another organization before spring training so he has an opportunity to compete for a championship.”
Berry mentioned Realmuto’s arb hearing, which he lost. As a result, the 26-year-old will make $2.9MM this year instead of the $3.5MM he requested. That fairly negligible difference isn’t going to affect Realmuto’s value, however, as it’s an extremely small price to pay for one of baseball’s best backstops. Realmuto’s also under arbitration control through 2019 and ’20, so he figures to give either the Marlins or another team a reasonably priced solution behind the plate for the next three years.
In talks with the Nationals and other clubs, the Marlins unsurprisingly “have been holding out for multiple high-end prospects,” Jackson writes. While slashing payroll has been a prime objective for the franchise this offseason, trading the cheap Realmuto would be more of a farm system-bolstering maneuver than anything. The Marlins, to their credit, have made headway in restocking the lower levels this offseason. Thanks to the trades they’ve made since December, they’ve climbed from 30th to 19th in Baseball America’s organizational rankings (subscription required and recommended). Miami still has plenty of work to do to turn its system into a strength, though, and moving Realmuto would further help the team achieve that.
J.T. Realmuto Loses Arbitration Case
Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has lost his arbitration case against the Marlins, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. Realmuto was seeking a $3.5MM salary for 2018, but he’ll earn $2.9MM instead. The CAA Sports client is the first player to lose an arb hearing this offseason, as teammate Justin Bour, Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts and Diamondbacks righty Shelby Miller won theirs earlier this week.
It’s unclear whether Realmuto will collect his 2018 salary from the Marlins or another club, given that the 26-year-old stands out as the rebuilding team’s most valuable trade chip. Realmuto has drawn significant interest this winter from the NL East rival Nationals, who have a glaring need behind the plate and a willingness to deal a couple of their top prospects to address it.
Regardless of which uniform he wears this year, Realmuto figures to continue as one of the game’s most valuable backstops. In 2017, his third season, he accumulated upward of 3.5 fWAR for the second straight campaign. Realmuto slashed a solid .278/.332/.451 with 17 home runs in a career-high 579 plate appearances, though his work behind the plate only drew mixed reviews. While Realmuto earned negative marks as a pitch framer from Baseball Prospectus between 2015-16, he was well above average in that department last year, according to BP. Conversely, StatCorner ranked him one of the game’s worst framers in 2017.
The validity of framing metrics may be somewhat up for debate, but it’s clear Realmuto is eminently valuable – particularly at such a low salary and with three years of control remaining. The fact that the arbitration cases for him and Bour are now settled leaves the Marlins with righty Dan Straily as their only arb-eligible player whose 2018 salary isn’t yet determined, as MLBTR’s Arb Tracker shows.
Justin Bour Wins Arbitration Case Over Marlins
Marlins first baseman Justin Bour has won his arbitration case over the Marlins, according to his agent, Marc J. Kligman of Total Care Sports Management (Twitter link). Bour will earn $3.4MM in 2018, his first year of arbitration eligibility, beating out the $3MM salary the Marlins proposed. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected a $3.5MM award for Bour at the outset of the offseason.
The victory for the 29-year-old Bour comes on the heels of a career season in which he slashed a robust .289/.366/.536 with 25 home runs and a .247 ISO in 429 plate appearances. While the lefty-swinging Bour struggled versus same-handed pitchers from 2014-16, he turned it around against them last year and established himself as an everyday first baseman.
Overall, Bour has been a significant offensive threat during parts of four major league seasons, having batted .273/.346/.489 across 1,279 PAs. However, he has never played more than 129 games in an individual campaign, and injuries helped limit him to a combined 198 contests from 2016-17 (108 last year).
Should Bour stay healthy in 2018, he’ll be one of the few consistent forces in a Miami lineup that, compared to prior years, looks depleted. The club has traded away its previous starting outfield – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich – in cost-cutting moves this offseason, leaving Bour and catcher J.T. Realmuto as its offensive centerpieces. It’s possible Realmuto will also find himself in another uniform by the start of the season, given the plethora of trade rumors surrounding him this winter. Bour, on the other hand, seems likely to remain a Marlin.
Quick Hits: Spring Training, Arb Hearings, Werth, Rodgers
Unrest on the players’ side of the fence in a dismally slow offseason reached the point where player reps in the union asked if whether it was viable for even those who have signed contracts to collectively refuse to report to Spring Training until Feb. 24, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). That represents the mandatory reporting date, though pitchers and catchers (and some others) will report to camp prior to that date in a given year. The MLBPA informed those representatives that doing so would violate the CBA and constitute an “unlawful strike,” prompting the notion to be dropped. The very thought further illustrates the overall discontent of players, Rosenthal notes, and that general level of frustration doesn’t help matters as the league and union continue to negotiate the implementation of pace-of-play measures.
Some other notes from around the game…
- In addition to Ken Giles, whose arbitration hearing took place yesterday, we should soon learn the results on a pair of arb hearings from the Marlins. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted recently that J.T. Realmuto’s arb hearing was on Jan. 31, while Justin Bour’s was slated for Feb. 1. Giles and the Astros filed at $4.6MM and $4.2MM, respectively. Meanwhile, the Marlins filed at $2.9MM and $3MM for Realmuto and Bour, while that duo countered with respective figures of $3.5MM and $3.4MM (all of which can be seen in MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker). Heyman also noted that Dan Straily’s hearing is set for Feb. 14, and Luke Jones of WSNT.net tweeted recently that Orioles righty Kevin Gausman told him his hearing is also set for the 14th of the month.
- The Nationals have little interest in bringing Jayson Werth back to D.C., writes Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Werth, though, hopes to play next season and tells Janes that he’s enhanced his workout routine this offseason. “I’m still training,” says Werth. “I’m still doing the same stuff I would do every other year. I’m actually training harder because I know I’m getting older, and the only way to keep up is to work harder, which sucks.” Werth, 38, was sporting a productive .262/.367/.446 batting line in 2017 when he hit the DL in early June due to a foot injury. When he returned in late August, though, he struggled to a .155/.226/.286 slash through the end of the season, and his struggles continued in the postseason.
- Rockies top prospect Brendan Rodgers tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that his ultimate goal for the 2018 season is to make his MLB debut. While the team’s director of player development, Zach Wilson, loves the ambition behind that goal, he wouldn’t comment directly on the plausibility of that scenario. “We’ll see what happens, but it certainly doesn’t hurt to have those aspirations and those goals this year,” Wilson told Saunders. “But I will also say this: we’ll make sure he is ready for the next step before he takes it.” Wilson adds that Rodgers will see action at both middle infield positions during Cactus League play this spring but will also get in plenty of side work at third base as the team increases his versatility. Rodgers is viewed as a potential cornerstone piece in the infield for the Rox, though with Nolan Arenado at third base, Trevor Story at short and DJ LeMahieu at second base, there’s no immediate opening for him. LeMahieu, though, is a free agent following the 2018 season.