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MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?

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With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.

The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.

Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt’s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.

The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.

Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?

(Poll link for app users)

Brewers, Brent Suter Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Deal

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The Brewers announced on Sunday that they’ve signed left-handed pitcher Brent Suter to a two-year deal, avoiding arbitration. Per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, it’s a $2.5MM guarantee for the 30-year-old Suter: he’ll collect salaries of $900K in 2020 and $1.5MM in 2021, along with a $100K signing bonus. The contract also includes incentives that could bring Suter’s 2021 salary to $1.75MM based on innings pitched milestones.

Until the two sides reached an agreement, Suter was scheduled to have an arbitration hearing tomorrow; he had asked for $1.25MM while the Brewers offered $825K.

The two-year deal means that the Brewers have bought out Suter’s first two years of arbitration eligibility. However, since he’s a Super Two player, he’ll still have two years of eligibility remaining after the contract expires. Suter is due to reach free agency after the 2023 season.

Suter enjoyed a nice season—albeit a shortened one—in 2019, after spending the majority of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He proved a valuable multi-inning, change-of-pace option in the bullpen, tossing 18 1/3 innings and allowing just one run.

And while Suter seems likely to begin the 2020 season in the bullpen, it’s clear from the incentive clauses in his contract (Suter would max out the bonuses with 160 IP) that the Brewers still see potential for Suter to start games this year. With newcomers Josh Lindblom, Eric Lauer, and Brett Anderson rounding out the projected Opening Day rotation, Suter will likely have to cut his teeth as a multi-inning reliever and spot starter, but could get an opportunity to start in case of injuries.

Josh Hader Discusses Arbitration Defeat

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Brewers reliever Josh Hader just barely earned Super Two status this offseason, setting him up to take four trips through arbitration instead of three. Hader then filed for a $6.4MM salary – a far cry from the $4.1MM the Brewers proposed. The decision on the case came down Friday, and the Brewers emerged as the victors. Even in defeat, Hader’s now set to make significantly more than he’d have hauled in had he not gotten to arbitration this early. But this loss will negatively affect Hader’s earning power in future years, and he’d like to see a change in the system.

Speaking on Friday, the 25-year-old left-hander said (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com): “We definitely knew that we were the underdogs going into it. But it’s something that needs to be put out there: Baseball’s always changing, and we’re at a point now that we’re continuing to change, and I think the system needs to change with that. You can see it in baseball now — a lot of relievers aren’t in certain roles that they once were.”

Hader added that the current arbitration setup is “outdated” with respect to reliever usage, and it’s difficult to argue against that. The present system puts a great deal of emphasis on racking up saves and holds, which doesn’t seem fair to dominant relievers who aren’t just used in those spots (Hader, for example). Hader does have 49 saves and 39 holds since he debuted in 2017 (including 37 and six in those respective categories in 2019), but the Brewers utilized him in various high-leverage situations in his first two seasons, thereby hurting his counting stats. That tactic, while perhaps wise on the team’s part, didn’t do Hader any favors in his initial arbitration hearing.

No matter how they’ve used him, Hader has been lights-out. A two-time All-Star and a back-to-back NL Reliever of the Year winner, Hader owns a superb 2.42 ERA/2.74 FIP with 15.35 K/9 and 3.17 BB/9 through 204 career 2/3 innings. Furthermore, he has regularly recorded more than three outs per appearance. Given Hader’s excellence to date and Friday’s results, he’s not unreasonable to contend that the arbitration process is behind the times for those in his position.

Brewers Defeat Josh Hader In Arbitration

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The Brewers have won their arbitration case against lefty relief ace Josh Hader, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). He’ll receive the $4.1MM that the team presented rather than the $6.4MM salary he had sought.

This is a significant win for the team side. For the Brewers, specifically, it not only means immediate savings but sets the team up to pay quite a lot less in each of the three remaining seasons of team control.

More broadly, this case now joins the Dellin Betances ruling in tamping down arbitration leverage for exceptional relief pitchers who have not accumulated a large number of saves. It has been a good winter for teams generally, as they’ve taken six of seven arbitration hearings thus far after the players scored some wins last offseason.

Hader, 25, will not earn as much as he had hoped. But he’ll still do much better throughout his arbitration years than would’ve been expected at the time of his initial promotion to the majors. Most of that is due to his excellent work on the field, of course, but he also did not seem in line for Super Two status. Hader just did sneak in to early arb qualification owing to this year’s unusually low service-time cutoff.

The Brewers have received quite a few good innings from Hader over the past three years. In 204 2/3 total frames, he carries a 2.42 ERA with 15.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. He was homer-prone last year but otherwise remained all but impossible to square up. The flamethrower finished the season with a personal-best 6.90 K/BB ratio.

Phillies Claim Deolis Guerra, Designate J.D. Hammer

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The Phillies announced this afternoon that they’ve claimed righty Deolis Guerra off outright waivers from the Brewers and designated fellow right-hander J.D. Hammer for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Philadelphia also announced that right-hander Trevor Kelley, who was designated for assignment late last week, cleared waivers and has been sent outright to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Guerra, 30, was dominant in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in 2019, logging 66 2/3 innings with a 1.89 ERA, 11.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9 and a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate for Milwaukee’s top affiliate. He pitched just two-thirds of an inning in the big leagues and only has a total of 95 2/3 MLB frames under his belt in all, but Guerra ranked in the 80th percentile in fastball spin rate during his last full MLB season with the Angels in 2017.

Milwaukee signed Guerra to a big league deal earlier this winter but opted to designate him for assignment last week after agreeing to a one-year deal with righty David Phelps. Guerra is out of minor league options, so he becomes a strong possibility to break camp with the Phillies, so long as he pitches reasonably well in Spring Training.

Hammer, 25, posted a 3.79 ERA in his big league debut in 2019, allowing eight runs on just 15 hits in 19 innings of work. However, he also issued 12 walks against just 13 strikeouts in that time, continuing some troublesome control issues that surfaced in Triple-A (15 walks in 15 2/3 innings there). Injuries have combined to limit Hammer to just 170 total innings between the big leagues and the minors since he was selected by the Rockies in the 24th round of the 2016 draft. That, paired with his recent control issues, apparently made him expendable to the Phillies, who now have a week to trade Hammer, release him or try to pass him through outright waivers.

The 26-year-old Kelley was also a waiver claim by the Phillies, coming over from the Red Sox organization in early December. He struggled in his MLB debut this past season (eight runs in 8 1/3 innings) but posted impressive minor league numbers in 2019 (1.79 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 in 65 2/3 innings).

Brewers Sign Andres Blanco To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers announced that they’ve signed veteran infielder Andres Blanco to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. He’s represented by GSE Worldwide.

Blanco will turn 36 in April and hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2017, but he’s had a pair of productive Triple-A campaigns in 2018 and 2019 — the former actually coming with the Brewers organization. Blanco hit .271/.362/.435 (111 wRC+) in 357 plate appearances with Triple-A Colorado Springs that season. Last year, with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate, he put together a nearly identical .262/.364/.443 slash (109 wRC+) in a larger sample of 530 plate appearances.

The veteran Blanco has played in parts of 10 MLB seasons, logging time at each infield position and batting a combined .256/.310/.378 in 1321 trips to the plate. His signing comes just days after the Brewers found out projected shortstop Luis Urias will need six to eight weeks to recover from surgery to repair a broken hamate bone — an injury he sustained while playing in the Mexican Pacific Winter League. Blanco will head to Spring Training and vie to join a currently fluid infield mix that includes Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, Orlando Arcia, Ryon Healy and Justin Smoak, among others.

Quick Hits: Astros, Venable, Suter, Kim

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In the wake of the sign-stealing scandal that has enveloped the Astros and become perhaps the biggest story of the offseason, Astros fan Tony Adams decided to analyze the data from the 2017 season in perhaps the more straight-forward way possible — Adams listened for any loud banging sounds (i.e. someone hitting a trash can) during every opponents’ pitch thrown during Astros home games in 2017.  The whistling, clapping, and vocal signals the Astros allegedly also used to alert batters weren’t chronicled, as such sounds are harder to detect amidst the usual sounds of the ballpark.

After breaking down the 58 Houston home games that had available video, Adams made his work public at SignStealingScandal.com, with intriguing results.  The banging sounds were almost non-existent for the first two months of the season before spiking during a May 28 game against Baltimore (an 8-4 Astros win) and then staying at a noticeably high level for most of the remaining games over the following four months.  More data is available on a game-by-game basis, and on a player-by-player basis.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Will Venable interviewed for the Astros’ managerial vacancy earlier this month and for the Cubs’ and Giants’ jobs earlier this offseason, though he appears to be stepping out of the managerial race for the time being.  MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that Venable will remain as the Cubs’ third base coach and thus won’t be a candidate to fill the sport’s last remaining managerial opening with the Red Sox.
  • After undergoing Tommy John surgery in mid-2018, Brent Suter returned to the Brewers in a relief role in September and looked tremendous, allowing just a single earned run in 18 1/3 innings (for a tiny 0.49 ERA).  While the Brewers generally like to be as flexible as possible with their pitchers’ assignments, GM David Stearns told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that he thinks Suter will continue to work as a reliever in 2020.  “We’ll make sure Brent lengthens out so that he can cover multiple innings and accentuate his versatility.  It’s keeping someone in a role where they’ve demonstrated they can be successful,” Stearns said.  Suter pitched mostly as a reliever in his 2016 rookie season but started 32 of 42 appearances in 2017-18, though rarely pitching too deep into games.  A soft-contact specialist whose fastball averaged only 87.5mph last season, Suter provides quite a contrast paired alongside with Milwaukee’s other multi-inning relief ace, the hard-throwing strikeout machine Josh Hader.
  • Korean outfielder Jae-Hwan Kim did not draw sufficient interest from MLB teams this winter to make a move across the Pacific, but he’s determined to try again after the 2020 campaign, Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News reports.  “If I do well this year, I’ll take another shot at the majors,” Kim said.  The outfielder had a monster run with the Doosan Bears from 2016-18, averaging nearly 40 homers per season and topping the 1.000 OPS plateau in all three years.  In 2019, however, Kim dropped back to a .283/.362/.434 slash and 15 dingers last year, which he said isn’t just a reflection of the suppressed KBO offensive environment.  Kim is hoping to iron out his swing in 2020 and turn in a convincing season before offering his services again to big league clubs.

Brewers Designate Deolis Guerra For Assignment

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The Brewers have designated right-hander Deolis Guerra for assignment, as per a team press release.  The move creates a roster spot for David Phelps, whose one-year deal with Milwaukee is now official.

Guerra re-signed with the Brewers on a Major League contract earlier this winter, after being outrighted off the team’s 40-man roster during the season.  Guerra pitched in only one game and 2/3 of an inning for the Brewers in 2019, allowing four runs in that brief cameo.  That ugly outing was countered by some outstanding numbers at the Triple-A level, as Guerra posted a 1.89 ERA, 5.50 K/BB rate, and 11.9 K/9 over 66 2/3 relief innings.

While the 30-year-old Guerra had an age and experience advantage over much younger Triple-A batters, his performance was particularly impressive given that 2019 was by far the biggest-hitting season in the history of Triple-A baseball.  Another team could be intrigued enough by those minor league stats to pluck Guerra off the DFA wire, or he could remain in Milwaukee’s farm system once again as a depth option.

Over 95 2/3 career Major League frames with the Brewers, Angels, and Pirates, Guerra has a 4.52 ERA, 3.41 K/BB rate, and 7.1 K/9.

Brewers To Sign David Phelps

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The Brewers have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent righty David Phelps, per Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll promise him $1.5MM and comes with a club option for another season, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds (Twitter link).

David Phelps | Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

The deal is loaded with other earning potential as well. Phelps will play for a $1.25MM salary in 2020 but can tack on $1.9MM in incentives. The option is priced at $4.5MM, with a $250K buyout. If Phelps is picked up, there’s another $1.9MM in performance milestones available in 2021.

Phelps, 33, returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 and showed rather well. He split time between the Blue Jays and Cubs, turning in 34 1/3 frames of 3.41 ERA ball with a 36:17 K/BB ratio. That also enabled him to trigger a clause in his contract that boosted the price of his option year to $5MM, leading the Cubs to decline and send Phelps back onto the market.

The Brewers obviously hope that Phelps can continue to make strides now that he has one post-TJ campaign under his belt. Phelps lost nearly two miles per hour on his average fastball between seasons, so it’d be nice to see some velo return. On a related note, he also managed only a 7.8% swinging-strike rate. But Phelps did show above-average fastball and curveball spin rates, which helped him limit the hard contact allowed against both of those offerings.

Phelps has at times functioned as a high-leverage setup man, but he’ll likely be in more of a middle innings role as part of a deep Milwaukee ’pen. Josh Hader should have the closer’s role locked down, and Corey Knebel, returning from Tommy John surgery, should give manager Craig Counsell a similarly dominant late-inning option (health permitting).

Former starters Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta could both factor into the mix as well, and the Brew Crew did add Ray Black and his triple-digit fastball prior to the 2019 non-waiver deadline. Lefties Alex Claudio and Brent Suter, too, should play key roles in 2020. Phelps will bring an experienced arm that has worked as a long man and a starter in addition to his time as a setup man, which should give the Brewers flexibility in terms of how they prefer to align their relief troops.

Free Agent Spending By Team: National League

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With the clear exception of the still-unsigned Yasiel Puig, free agency is almost devoid of high-upside contributors at this point. The majority of players capable of securing guaranteed contracts have already come off the board, making this a good time to check in on which teams have spent the most and which clubs have paid the least via the open market. We’ve already gone through the same exercise for the American League, where the Yankees have returned to the top of the heap as the biggest spenders in their league and in the sport in general. Meanwhile, over in the Senior Circuit, reigning world champion Washington clearly isn’t resting on its laurels after a storybook playoff run…

Nationals: $316.75MM on 10 players (Stephen Strasburg, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Starlin Castro, Yan Gomes, Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Zimmerman and Kyle Finnegan; financial details unclear for Finnegan; top 50 MLBTR signings: four)

Reds: $164MM on four players (Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Wade Miley; top 50 signings: four)

Phillies: $132MM on two players (Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius; top 50 signings: two)

Braves: $116.25MM on nine players (Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud, Chris Martin, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, Darren O’Day, Adeiny Hechavarria; top 50 signings: five)

Diamondbacks: $109.65MM on five players (Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun, Hector Rondon, Stephen Vogt and Junior Guerra; top 50 signings: two)

Brewers: $48.38MM on eight players (Avisail Garcia, Josh Lindblom, Justin Smoak, Brett Anderson, Eric Sogard, Alex Claudio, Ryon Healy and Deolis Guerra; financial details unclear for Healy and Guerra; top 50 signings: two)

Padres: $48MM on three players (Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson; top 50 signings: three)

Mets: $24.35MM on four players (Dellin Betances, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha and Brad Brach; top 50 signings: three)

Marlins: $23.855MM on five players (Corey Dickerson, Brandon Kintzler, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Joyce and Yimi Garcia; financial details unclear for Joyce; top 50 signings: one)

Giants: $17.775MM on four players (Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, Tony Watson and Tyler Anderson; top 50 signings: one)

Dodgers: $15.25MM on three players (Blake Treinen, Alex Wood and Jimmy Nelson; top 50 signings: one)

Cardinals: $15MM on three players (Adam Wainwright, Kwang-hyun Kim and Matt Wieters; top 50 signings: one)

Cubs: $2.5MM on three players (Steven Souza Jr., Jeremy Jeffress and Ryan Tepera; top 50 signings: zero)

Pirates: Signed OF Guillermo Heredia and C Luke Maile (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)

Rockies: Signed RHP Jose Mujica (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)

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