Jimmy Nelson Unlikely To Return In 2018
Brewers GM David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell indicated today that righty Jimmy Nelson is unlikely to make it back to the hill for the club this season, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to report (Twitter links: 1; 2; 3; 4; 5).
That conclusion was largely evident from the fact that Nelson had not yet begun a rehab assignment. Stearns acknowledged today what was becoming clear, saying that time is running short. Further comments from Counsell removed any remaining doubt as to the team’s expectations. While neither man would rule out the possibility that Nelson will make a surprising late-season return, it seems there’s not much reason at all to think that’ll take place.
Nelson, 28, turned in a strong 2017 effort before succumbing to a shoulder injury that required surgery. He spun 175 1/3 frames of 3.49 ERA ball with 10.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and a 50.3% grounder rate. Despite the season-ending procedure, Nelson’s big year allowed him to command a $3.7MM salary in his first trip through arbitration, a sum the Brewers were glad to pay in hopes that he’d be able to return in 2018 and in order to retain their rights over his 2019 and 2020 campaigns. (He’ll surely command the same amount in arbitration this fall.)
Since Nelson underwent shoulder surgery last September, the organization has expressed varying degrees of optimism that he’d at least potentially be ready to return at some point in 2018. There seemed to be quite a bit of promise in the run-up to camp, with a June return presented as a potential target. Unfortunately, his anticipated mound work continued to be pushed back. As recently as late June, Stearns said the team expected Nelson to appear this season, but the final strides have evidently yet to be made.
As Counsell explains, Nelson’s early rehab work increased expectations. Unfortunately, that did not carry forward to a ramped-up timetable. But the skipper says the goal all along was never to get Nelson back on the mound this year so much as it was to get him back to full health at whatever pace the process would allow.
There isn’t any setback to blame for the fact that Nelson likely won’t return to the MLB roster this year, per Counsell. Rather, the club’s top uniformed decisionmaker says, “it’s just that where we are in the schedule, [Nelson is] not going to get [to] pitch in major-league games.” The goal at this point seems to have shifted to putting Nelson “in a competitive situation” before he takes a breather over the offseason. It’s also possible the righty could appear in winter ball or some kind of instructional league, per Stearns.
Observers have long wondered if Nelson’s absence would lead the Brewers to seek a significant rotation upgrade. The organization has foregone any major moves to this point, though, expressing confidence in a unit made up of preexisting internal options and a few modest additions (namely, Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley). Results have been solid thus far, though the starting staff could still represent an area to improve later this month and in the offseason to come. While the team surely maintains hope that Nelson will be ready to go when camp opens next spring, Stearns & co. will have to weigh the ongoing uncertainty in tweaking the roster over the winter.
Brewers Acquire Jake Thompson, Designate Alec Asher
The Brewers have acquired right-hander Jake Thompson from the Phillies in exchange for cash, the Phillies announced Tuesday. Right-hander Alec Asher has been designated for assignment to open roster space, and the Brewers have optioned Thompson to Triple-A, per an announcement of their own.
Thompson, 24, was once considered to be among the game’s best pitching prospects, entering both the 2015 and 2016 season as a consensus Top 100 prospect. Originally a draft pick of the Tigers, he was traded to the Rangers alongside Corey Knebel in exchange for Joakim Soria and then traded from Texas to Philadelphia in the Cole Hamels blockbuster. In somewhat amusing and ironic fashion, the Brewers now hold all three pieces of that 2014 Tigers/Rangers swap in Knebel, Soria and Thompson.
[Related: Updated Milwaukee Brewers depth chart]
Of course, Thompson hasn’t exactly delivered on his considerable prospect status. He’s tallied 116 1/3 innings at the Major League level across the past three seasons, all with the Phillies, and pitched to a lackluster 4.87 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.55 HR/9 and a 46.1 percent ground-ball rate. The Phillies had been using Thompson primarily in a relief role with Triple-A Lehigh Valley this season, so he could conceivably give Milwaukee some depth either in the rotation or in the bullpen. Thompson has one option year remaining after 2018, so the Brewers will have some flexibility with him in 2019 as well, if he sticks on the 40-man roster for that long.
As if the sequence connecting Knebel, Soria and Thompson wasn’t strange enough, the Brewers are opening room on the roster by designating one of the players alongside whom Thompson was traded from Texas to Philadelphia in that Hamels blockbuster. Both Thompson and Asher went from Texas to Philadelphia in that deal, and Thompson’s addition to the Brewers’ roster will come at the expense of his former teammate.
Asher, 26, has tossed three scoreless innings for the Brewers this season but owns an ugly 5.42 ERA with a 39-to-32 K/BB ratio through 88 innings of Triple-A work between the affiliates for Milwaukee and the Dodgers. That 5.42 mark is a dead match for his career ERA through 119 2/3 Major League innings, the majority of which have come as a member of the Phillies. Milwaukee has a week to trade Asher or try to run him through outright waivers in hopes of retaining him as a non-roster player.
NL Notes: Realmuto, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers
Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto suggested last month he’d be open to discussing a contract extension with the club, but if he’s uninterested in signing a deal over the winter, “there’s a good chance” the team will trade him, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. The 25-year-old Realmuto, one of the game’s elite backstops, is controllable via arbitration through the 2020 season.
More from the National League…
- The Mets are considering Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava and Rays special assistant Bobby Heck as candidates to be their next general manager, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Neither man has been a GM before, though both LaCava and Heck have a wealth of front office experience, particularly in the areas of scouting and player development. LaCava has been with the Blue Jays since 2002, when J.P. Ricciardi (now a Mets special advisor) was Toronto’s GM. Heck has been with the Rays since 2012, following lengthy stints with the Astros and Brewers that saw him play a notable role as both those clubs amassed a strong collection of young talent.
- Brewers right-hander Zach Davies hasn’t pitched in the majors since May 29, owing to shoulder and back problems, and there’s still no timetable for his return, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. But Davies’ absence hasn’t been crippling for the Brewers, as Haudricourt writes that they’ve “been satisfied” with the current members of their rotation. Further, after serving as a solid starter from 2016-17 (his first two full seasons), Davies came out of the gates slowly this year with a 5.23 ERA/5.29 FIP in 43 innings.
- The Dodgers’ decision to move Kenta Maeda to the bullpen may negatively affect the righty from a financial standpoint, given that he has incentives in his contract based on games started and innings pitched. However, the Dodgers and Maeda’s reps at the Wasserman Agency “have a good relationship,” tweets the Los Angeles Times’ Andy McCullough, who notes it would be sensible for both sides to change the language in his deal to include incentives for relief appearances. If the two sides do attempt to work something out, the MLBPA would have to sign off on it.
Quick Hits: Soria, Renfroe, Gordon, Stanton
Joakim Soria suffered a mild right groin strain during the Brewers’ ninth-inning meltdown against the Padres today. Soria walked off the mound with an apparent injury after allowing a go-ahead grand slam to Hunter Renfroe. According to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, the malady was later described as a mild right groin strain. There’s no official word on the severity of the injury yet, so it’s not known at this time whether Soria will need to miss any games. The right-hander came over from the White Sox just prior to the trade deadline in exchange for a pair of minor leaguers: left-hander Kodi Medeiros and right-hander Wilber Perez.
Here are a few other small items from around the league this evening…
- Speaking of Renfroe, the Padres outfielder has been on a tear of late. Including tonight’s grand slam off Soria, Renfroe’s slugged four homers in his past four games. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Tribune suggests that Renfroe’s performance could solidify an everyday spot in the lineup even after Wil Myers returns from the disabled list. That’s good news for the 26-year-old in the wake of today’s news that some of the young Padres outfielders are being intensely evaluated, but it’s also worth noting that Franmil Reyes also homered tonight; his third in his past four games. It will be interesting to see how the Padres address their corner outfield logjam this offseason, or if they choose to at all (Reyes and Renfroe both have minor league options remaining and can be stashed at Triple-A).
- The Mariners moved Dee Gordon all the way down to ninth in the batting order in tonight’s game. That’s largely due to the speedster’s incredibly pedestrian offensive performance on the season. He’s hitting .280, but with just a .300 on-base and .343 slugging percentage. The biggest culprit to his lackluster showing is a paltry 1.5% walk rate that’s by far the lowest in the majors and approximately half the size of the next player on that list (Salvador Perez of the Royals). Though the plan right now seems to be for Robinson Cano to usurp some playing time from Ryon Healy when he returns from his suspension, it’s fair to wonder whether Gordon could rest in favor of Cano on occasion down the stretch, if he can’t figure out how to show more patience.
- With his 121.7 MPH homer tonight off Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, Giancarlo Stanton broke a Statcast record. The Yankees’ headline offseason acquisition drilled the ball at a launch angle of 17 degrees, propelling it an estimated 449 feet. It’s officially the hardest-hit homer that Statcast has ever tracked. It’s part of a larger trend for Stanton, who has heated up after a somewhat average start to the season. The right-hander’s .308/.363/.561 batting line since the start of June is much more in line with what the Bombers had imagined when they took on the lion’s share of his contract from the Marlins this offseason.
NL Notes: Brewers, Fiers, Mets, Reyes, Padres
The latest on a few National League clubs…
- The Brewers were “thought to be” vying for then-Tigers right-hander Mike Fiers before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. Fiers didn’t end up going to the the Brewers or any other team that day; instead, he ultimately headed to Oakland, which Fenech notes was the only team competing with Milwaukee for his services at the deadline, in a deal on Monday. Had he gone to the Brewers, it would have represented a homecoming of sorts for the 33-year-old Fiers, whom Milwaukee drafted in the 22nd round in 2009 and who later pitched with the team from 2011-15.
- Although he has been among the worst players in baseball this season, 35-year-old infielder Jose Reyes is hopeful of continuing his career in 2019 and would like to do so with the Mets. “Of course I’d want to come back,” Reyes told Howie Kussoy of the New York Post this week. “My body feels good. I feel healthy. We’ll see if there’s an opportunity.” An opportunity could be difficult to come by next year for Reyes, a .186/.261/.281 hitter across 184 plate appearances this season. Despite that disastrous production, though, the Mets haven’t been willing to cut the cord on the longtime franchise staple thus far.
- The Padres plan to select righty Jacob Nix from Triple-A El Paso to make his major league debut in a start against the Phillies on Friday, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. The Friars have an open spot on their 40-man roster, so adding Nix wouldn’t force them to make a corresponding move in that regard. Nix joined the Padres in the third round of the 2015 draft and now ranks as their 14th-best prospect at MLB.com. The 22-year-old has spent most of this season at the Double-A level, where he has logged a 2.05 ERA/3.41 FIP with 7.01 K/9, 1.54 BB/9 and a 45.2 percent groundball rate in 52 2/3 innings.
DL Placements: Fried, Carle, Albers
A trio of pitchers have hit the disabled list this afternoon… here are the details.
- The Braves have placed Max Fried on the DL with a left groin strain, the club announced. It’s a notable loss for a pennant-chasing Atlanta club, as Fried’s been excellent in four starts (nine total appearances) so far this season. Despite walking a whopping 16 batters in just 26 2/3 innings, Fried’s managed to post a tidy 3.38 ERA thanks in part to 34 strikeouts and a 50.8% ground ball rate. He’s benefitted from an 80.5% strand rate, but his whopping 23.1% HR/FB rate suggests a bit of bad luck in that department. Fried’s injury suggest that Atlanta will likely return to a traditional five-man rotation for the time being, utilizing Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Anibal Sanchez and the newly-acquired Kevin Gausman.
- Simultaneously, the Braves have lost a valuable righty reliever to the DL in the form of Shane Carle (shoulder inflammation). Carle’s been fantastic out of the bullpen this season, posting a 2.53 ERA across 53 1/3 innings. The righty’s been used for four or more outs a whopping 14 times in 2018, so the club will surely miss his ability to eat late innings for the time being. In the absence of Fried and Carle, the Braves have recalled lefty Adam McCreery and righty Wes Parsons from Triple-A Gwinett.
- The Brewers have unsurprisingly added righty reliever Matt Albers to their disabled list, owing to a left hamstring issue. It’s been clear that something isn’t right with the 35-year-old veteran, as he’s allowed a cataclysmic 18 earned runs across his past eight appearances spanning 5 1/3 innings dating back to the start of June. In the season’s first two months, though, Albers had allowed just three earned runs across 25 innings; the club will hope to get him right in time for him to make an impact out of their ‘pen down the stretch. Recently-acquired right-hander Jordan Lyles will take Albers’ place on the active roster for the time being.
Brewers Acquire Sal Biasi
In a swap of minor leaguers, Brewers announced that they’ve acquired A-ball righty Sal Biasi from the Royals in exchange for Triple-A right-hander Jon Perrin.
Biasi, 22, has only been a professional ballplayer for about a year; he was selected by the Royals in the 11th round of the 2017 draft. Though he managed ERA outputs below 2.50 at each of his first two stops throughout the minors, there was cause for skepticism based on his FIP figures (both above 4.00). Biasi hasn’t had the good fortune of out-pitching his peripherals at the A level; he’s been hit hard to the tune of a 5.08 ERA despite a 9.70 K/9 across 42 2/3 innings pitched so far on the season. Biasi’s pitched exclusively out of the bullpen, making 27 appearances.
Perrin, 25, is a towering 6’5″ righty who’s split the 2018 season between the Brew Crew’s Double-A and Triple-A levels. He’s chucked 47 1/3 innings thus far across 28 appearances (one start), and allowed 20 earned runs while notching 44 strikeouts against 20 walks. Despite that gaudy walk total, Perrin’s actually exhibited great control at previous levels of the minors. He’s never known any team other than the Brewers, who selected him in the 27th round of the 2015 draft.
Neither player is on the club’s 40-man roster, so this swap isn’t subject to the limitations beyond the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline. However, it’s not outlandish to think that the teams made this trade with major-league roster ideas in mind. Perrin, after all, has proven capable of limiting runs at the minors’ highest level, and the Kansas City bullpen isn’t exactly overflowing with high-end talent. Perhaps we’ll see Perrin get a look in the majors at some point down the stretch, though that’s obviously no certainty. For the Brewers, they’ll get something back for a player who’d have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft in the offseason to come.
Brewers Claim Ariel Hernandez
The Brewers announced today that they have claimed right-hander Ariel Hernandez off waivers from the Dodgers. He had been designated for assignment recently.
Hernandez worked at 98.1 mph with his fastball and produced a 12.6% swinging-strike rate in 24 1/3 MLB frames last year with the Reds. But he also handed out 22 free passes in that span, which perhaps led the Cincinnati club to designate him for assignment early in the present season.
It’s also clear, though, that teams are intrigued at the idea of harnessing Hernandez’s stuff. The Dodgers had to give up some value to acquire him in mid-April, indicating that there was competition, and now the Brewers will tie up a 40-man spot (for the time being, at least) in the middle of a pennant race.
Thus far in 2018, Hernandez has posted a 2.52 ERA in fifty frames over 37 appearances in the upper minors. But he has also produced just 49 strikeouts to go with 29 walks on the year. Hernandez has struggled in particular at the highest level of the minors; in 42 1/3 total frames there over the past two seasons, he has retired 40 batters on strikes but issued 39 free passes.
Brewers Claim Jordan Lyles
The Brewers have claimed right-hander Jordan Lyles off waivers from the Padres, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. San Diego has decided to let Lyles go for no compensation, Acee adds.
The 27-year-old Lyles, a first-round pick of the Astros in 2008, has generally struggled since debuting in the majors in 2011. However, Lyles was decent this year as a member of the Padres, with whom he logged a 4.29 ERA/4.45 FIP with 7.82 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 46.7 percent groundball rate in 71 1/3 innings. He worked primarily out of San Diego’s bullpen before it said goodbye to him, totaling eight starts in 24 appearances.
Lyles will presumably begin his Brewers tenure in relief, and his presence could help a Milwaukee club whose pitching depth has recently taken multiple hits in the form of serious injuries to Brent Suter and Zach Davies. Judging by the work he has done as a reliever this year, Lyles looks capable of serving as an asset for the Brewers, who own a 65-49 record and are 2 1/2 games up on a wild-card spot. In 24 1/3 frames out of the bullpen this season, Lyles has pitched to a 3.33 ERA/3.53 FIP with 8.14 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9, and limited opposing hitters to a .200/.276/.330 line.
Should the Lyles experiment go well for the Brewers this year, they’ll have a chance to keep him in 2019 on a $3.5MM club option (or they could buy him out for $250K). In the meantime, he’s on an ultra-affordable $750K salary this season.
Injury Notes: Snell, Dickerson, Fowler, Williams, Skaggs
As expected, the Rays have activated left-hander Blake Snell to start tonight’s game against the White Sox. The first-time All-Star will be on a limited pitch count following a two-week DL stint for left shoulder fatigue. Following a trade of Chris Archer to the Pirates, Snell looks like the only reliable starter in a Rays rotation that continues to see relievers open games more often than the starters themselves. Snell’s pre-injury performance, of course, was phenomenal; his 2.27 ERA would be more than a run lower than his career best season.
Here are a few other disabled list transactions from around the league…
- Pirates outfielder Corey Dickerson has been activated after a short stint on the disabled list; he’d been sidelined with a left hamstring strain. They’ll surely be glad to have him back after the club traded away notable outfield depth in the form of Austin Meadows at the July 31st deadline. While he’s active, Dickerson won’t be starting today’s game against the Cardinals (though he’ll presumably be available off the bench).
- As expected after last night’s news, Cardinals outfielder Dexter Fowler will hit the DL after suffering a fractured foot. Fowler’s enduring a miserable season that’s by far his career worst; he’s managed to hit an absolutely wretched .180/.278/.298 across 334 plate appearances while playing middling outfield defense. Fangraphs rates him as being 1.2 wins below replacement level on the season after a 2.5 fWAR debut with the Cards last year.
- Switch-hitting relief pitcher Taylor Williams is headed to the DL with right elbow soreness. It’s certainly bad news for a Brewers bullpen that’s seeing Corey Knebel struggle mightily of late. Williams has tossed 42 2/3 relief innings and managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings, though he’s only managed to keep the ball on the ground 34.8% of the time and has walked a batter nearly every other inning on average. Williams is in the midst of his first full season in the majors after a 4 2/3 inning cup of coffee last year.
- Angels hurler Tyler Skaggs is headed to the disabled list with a left adductor strain, the club has announced. Skaggs has described the injury as “extremely frustrating”, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. He apparently sustained it during his last start. In his stead, the Angels have called up right-hander Taylor Cole. The Angels, of course, have already seen their rotation annihilated by injuries this year, with Garrett Richards, Shohei Ohtani, J.C. Ramirez and Matt Shoemaker among the affected starters.