Tender Deadline Notes: Mercer, Rays, Brewers, Cubs, Tigers, Romine
Friday at 8pm EST marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts for the 2018 season, meaning that we’ll see a few difficult calls made on arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR recently compiled a list of the players we feel are most at risk to be non-tendered (with the proviso that many of the names on the list likely will not end up being set free). As ever, anticipated cost is a major factor, so you’ll want to reference the arbitration projections of MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz for a sense of where the salaries could be headed.
Here’s the latest chatter as the decision time draws near …
- Some readers were surprised to see Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer tabbed as a possible non-tender on MLBTR’s list. In our view, his hefty salary (projected at $6.5MM) and the possibility of finding cheaper alternatives combine to create some vulnerability — at least, that is, from an outside examination. The expectation of MLB.com’s Adam Berry, though, is that Pittsburgh will continue to rely on Mercer in his final season of arb eligibility. Berry cites Mercer’s steadiness and the fact that the team’s middle infield prospects aren’t quite ready yet to take over at short.
- The Rays face a number of interesting arbitration decisions even after resolving one by trading Brad Boxberger; Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times runs through the list. The most recent report suggests that Tampa Bay will tender Brad Miller if they don’t trade him on Friday, and Topkin generally concurs with that assessment. While MLBTR feels there’s a chance that shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and catcher Jesus Sucre could be at risk, Topkin says the expectation is they’ll be retained. Rather, he feels the focus could remain on the relief corps, with pitchers Xavier Cedeno, Dan Jennings, and Chase Whitley all being candidates for something other than a straight tender. That could mean a trade, a pre-deadline deal to lock in their salary at a favorable rate, or perhaps a non-tender.
- Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel similarly examines the choices facing the Brewers. Two players that MLBTR identified as plausible non-tender candidates, reliever Jeremy Jeffress and catcher Stephen Vogt, receive similar billing from Haudricourt, as does righty Jared Hughes. Per the article, Milwaukee has “probably been trying to do pre-deadline deals” with the two pen pieces, while Vogt could simply be sent onto the open market.
- For the Cubs, too, the toughest calls may come in the relief department. As Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Times writes, and as MLBTR’s analysis has suggested, Hector Rondon ($6.2MM projection) and Justin Grimm ($2.4MM) may be entering their final day with the Chicago organization. Rondon, especially, could receive trade consideration from other teams if the Cubs decide it’s time to move on.
- Speaking of pen pieces at risk, the Tigers landed two players on our list: righties Bruce Rondon ($1.2MM projection) and Alex Wilson ($2.1MM). Evan Woodberry of MLive.com tweets that both are indeed potential non-tender candidates for Detroit, but both are not necessarily going to be cut loose. In Woodberry’s estimation, the volatile Rondon is somewhat likely to be cut loose after allowing 19 earned runs in his 15 2/3 MLB innings in 2017. Though he continued to show swing-and-miss stuff, and posted a 2.70 ERA in his 36 2/3 frames at Triple-A, Rondon struggled to limit the free passes. As for the 31-year-old Wilson, it’s something of the opposite scenario for Woodberry. He says that he expects Wilson will be tendered despite a middling 4.50 ERA in his most recent season. The veteran did post similar K/BB figures to those that allowed him to generate better results in prior campaigns.
- We drew some ire for suggesting that the Yankees could pass a chance at retaining catcher Austin Romine for his projected $1.2MM salary, but MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch suggests there’s some possibility that could occur. Even if he is not kept on the 40-man roster, says Hoch, Romine could be targeted to return on a minors pact. Of course, he’d also then have a chance to see if he could score a MLB slot with another organization. Romine limped to a .218/.272/.293 slash line in 252 plate appearances last year, but is generally regarded as a solid defender. It seems likely that the decision will come down to a question of whether the Yanks simply think they can do better with youngster Kyle Higashioka or another open-market option to complement regular Gary Sanchez.
Brewers Claim Dylan Baker From Indians
The Brewers announced that they’ve claimed righty Dylan Baker off waivers from the Indians. Baker was designated for assignment last week as part of Cleveland’s slew of moves in advance of the deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.
The 25-year-old Baker hasn’t pitched much since the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery and other injuries. The 2012 fifth-rounder has tossed just 21 1/3 innings across three levels in the past three minor league seasons combined, though he’s posted a 3.58 ERA in 241 2/3 innings in his minor league career when healthy. With Baker’s addition, the Brewers now have a full 40-man roster.
Quick Hits: Betancourt, Rangers, Cobb, Lynn, Padres
Brewers infield prospect Javier Betancourt was shot in the arm in the wake of an argument on Friday in his native Venezuela, according to reporter Andriw Sanchez Ruiz (hat tip to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). Betancourt is headed to Milwaukee to recover and surgery may be required, though Brewers GM David Stearns told Haudricourt (Twitter link) that the club is still considering treatment options. “Javier’s injuries are not life threatening and he is resting comfortably,” Stearns said. MLB security is currently investigating the incident. Betancourt, 22, joined the Brewers from the Tigers in November 2015 as part of the return in the Francisco Rodriguez trade. The infielder has hit .265/.311/.357 over 2231 career plate appearances in the minors, with the last two seasons coming at Milwaukee’s Double-A affiliate. All of us at MLBTR wish Betancourt the best in a full recovery.
Here are some notes from around baseball…
- The Rangers signed Doug Fister earlier today but aren’t done looking for pitching, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link) that the club is still showing interest in Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. Given the uncertainty in the Texas rotation and Fister’s own inconsistent performance in recent years, it isn’t surprising that the Rangers are looking to further augment their staff with a pitcher who could be more comfortably slotted near the front of the rotation. Texas has cast a wide net in search of pitching help — beyond Cobb and Lynn, the team has also been linked to Jake Arrieta and Tyler Chatwood, plus the Rangers are expected to be one of the top suitors for Shohei Otani.
- The Padres have some degree of interest in Eric Hosmer since he is younger than other free agent first base options, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. For instance, Lin hasn’t heard of anything serious about the Padres pursuing Carlos Santana, the second-best first baseman on the open market. Hosmer is just 28, and thus if signed to a long-term deal, would likely still be a contributor once the Padres are ready to contend. A player like Santana, who turns 32 in April, could already be declining by the time San Diego is done rebuilding, which could be at least two seasons from now. Of course, the Padres also already have Wil Myers at first base, and a Hosmer signing is probably the only scenario that would see the team ask Myers to move to a corner outfield spot.
Brewers Sign Michael Brady To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have signed right-handed reliever Michael Brady to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.
The 30-year-old Brady hit the open market earlier this month after declining an outright assignment to Triple-A from the Athletics. Last year was Brady’s only season as a member of the Oakland organization, with which he made his major league debut and tossed 31 2/3 relief innings of 5.68 ERA ball, with 6.82 K/9, 1.71 BB/9 and a 33.7 percent groundball rate. He was much more successful as a swingman with the A’s top minors affiliate, logging a 3.21 ERA, 8.61 K/9, 1.01 BB/9 and a 39.3 grounder percentage across 53 1/3 frames (17 appearances, eight starts).
Brady entered the pro ranks in 2009 as a 24th-round pick of the Marlins, who drafted him as a shortstop. He transferred to the mound in 2010 and has since pitched to a stingy 3.07 ERA, with 9.1 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9, over 513 2/3 minor league innings with the Marlins, Angels, Nationals and A’s.
NL Central Notes: Brewers, Brinson, Cardinals, Martinez
Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported yesterday that the Brewers have shown interest in Jake Arrieta, and in a followup column he writes that they’ve expressed interest in most of the top starters on the market, including right-hander Lance Lynn. Milwaukee will be without Jimmy Nelson for a yet-undetermined portion of the 2018 season due to shoulder surgery, and with question marks in the rotation behind Chase Anderson and Zach Davies, shoring up the starting five is a priority for GM David Stearns and his staff. While there’s certainly the possibility that they’ll be outbid on the top names in free agency, the Brewers do have considerable payroll space to surprise people with their spending this winter.
More out of Milwaukee and the division…
- Top Brewers prospect Lewis Brinson has changed representation and is now a client of the Legacy Agency, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. The 23-year-old center fielder made his MLB debut in 2017 but struggled greatly in 55 plate appearances, hitting just .106/.236/.277. However, Brinson tore through Triple-A at a .331/.400/.562 pace through 340 PAs and is widely regarded as one of the top overall prospects in all of baseball. His switch has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains info on more than 2,500 Major League and minor league players. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
- The Cardinals‘ search for an impact bat is expansive, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak and his staff have had discussions with virtually every impact bat on the market, including Eric Hosmer, and their trade talks with the Marlins have gone beyond Giancarlo Stanton and also touched on Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich (presumably not in the same deal). Two execs with other teams told Goold that the Cardinals have been aggressive in trade talks thus far. “We’ve got capacity to increase our payroll depending on the right situation,” owner Bill DeWitt Jr. tells Goold.
- Jose Martinez is utilizing the Venezuelan Winter League to further familiarize himself with playing first base, writes MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. The Cardinals gave Martinez, who has spent most of his career in the outfield, 29 starts at first last season and plan to use him there again in 2018 (though more in a backup role). Martinez has started nine of his 13 VWL games at first base and figures to continue to gain more exposure there over the course of the offseason. The 29-year-old hit .309/.379/.518 with 14 homers in 307 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2017.
Players Added To The 40-Man Roster
As detailed earlier this morning at MLBTR, the deadline for Major League clubs to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight. Because of that, there will be literally dozens of moves between now and 8pm ET as teams make final determinations on who to protect and who to risk losing in next month’s Rule 5 draft. This process will lead to smaller-scale trades, waiver claims and DFAs, but for some clubs the only necessary moves will simply be to select the contracts of the prospects they wish to place on the 40-man roster. We’ll track those such moves in this post…
- Heading onto the Blue Jays‘ roster, per a club announcement, are righty Connor Greene, lefty Tom Pannone, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and catchers Dan Jansen and Reese McGuire.
- The Rays have selected the contracts of righties Brent Honeywell, Diego Castillo, Yonny Chirinos, and Jose Mujica, lefty Ryan Yarbrough, first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers, and outfielder Justin Williams, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- The Diamondbacks placed lefty Jared Miller on the MLB roster, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter.
- A list of six players is heading onto the Reds‘ 40-man, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter): infielders Alex Blandino and Shed Long, outfielder Jose Siri, and righties Jose Lopez, Jesus Reyes, and Zack Weiss.
- The Padres and Brewers have joined the teams announcing their additions. For San Diego, lefties Jose Castillo and Brad Wieck are heading to the 40-man. Milwaukee has selected shortstop Mauricio Dubon, catcher Jacob Nottingham, and righties Marcos Diplan and Freddy Peralta.
- The Marlins and Yankees just struck a trade relating to their 40-man maneuvering, and each announced their selections shortly thereafter. Miami is placing outfielder Braxton Lee on the MLB roster along with righties Merandy Gonzalez, Pablo Lopez, and James Needy. New York, meanwhile, will select righties Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, and Jonathan Loaisiga to the 40-man along with outfielder Billy McKinney and infielders Thairo Estrada and (last but not least) Gleyber Torres.
Click to check in on other teams that have selected players to their 40-man rosters …
Brewers Reportedly Showing Interest In Jake Arrieta
With Jimmy Nelson set to miss a portion of the 2018 season following shoulder surgery, the Brewers are eyeing top-end rotation upgrades and showing some early interest in Jake Arrieta, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.
Arrieta, 32 March, is a familiar commodity for the Brewers, who have watched him star for the Cubs for nearly four full seasons. While Milwaukee doesn’t typically play at the top of the free-agent market, we explained here at MLBTR recently that the Brewers are in an uncharacteristically strong position to spend given their lack of long-term payroll commitments and given that some more traditionally big-spending teams aren’t likely to pursue top-line starters.
The Brewers have just north of $32MM committed to the 2018 payroll, plus another $22.7MM in arbitration projections, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They have similar commitments (in terms of guaranteed multi-year deals) lined up for the 2019 season, and the 2020 books have only Ryan Braun‘s $16MM salary guaranteed. Milwaukee, then, could easily afford to add a hefty multi-year contract, even if meant committing upwards of $25MM annually.
[Related: Milwaukee Brewers payroll outlook & depth chart]
Beyond the sheer financial plausibility, there’s a clear need in the Milwaukee rotation. Nelson broke out as the team’s top starter this season but will miss a fairly significant chunk of the 2018 season, per the Brewers, though the team won’t estimate precisely how long he’ll be out just yet. Beyond him, the recently extended Chase Anderson and fellow righty Zach Davies are the only two rotation locks. Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff, Josh Hader and Junior Guerra are among the team’s top internal candidates to fill out the rotation while Nelson mends.
Milwaukee’s rebuild accelerated considerably in 2017 as Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana all put together breakout years while top prospects Hader, Woodruff and Lewis Brinson all proved to be on the cusp of MLB readiness. Orlando Arcia took hold of the team’s shortstop job (though there’s still room for improvement), while Eric Thames enjoyed a productive overall year in his first season back in the big leagues after an excellent run in the Korea Baseball Organization.
All of those positive signs now have the Brewers in position to vie for an NL Central title next season, which should prompt the front office to be more willing to spend than it has been in recent years. We’ve not yet seen a David Stearns-led front office play the role of an aggressive offseason shopper on either the free-agent or trade market thus far, but it seems reasonable to expect that the Brewers will make a number of win-now moves this offseason. On our annual top 50 free agent projections, MLBTR predicted that Arrieta would land in Milwaukee.
Arrieta did reject a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Cubs, meaning he’d cost the Brewers their third-highest selection in next year’s draft. As of last week, we know that to be the team’s Competitive Balance Round B pick — No. 74 overall. The Cubs, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick after Comp Round B, assuming Arrieta signs a deal for more than $50MM guaranteed (which seems like a foregone conclusion).
NL Central Rumors: Brewers, Iglesias, Reds, Cubs, Davis, Lackey
The Brewers are not ruling out significant additions on the pitching market, it seems. When asked yesterday about the possibility of landing a premium-cost starter, GM David Stearns said that “it makes sense to cast a wide net,” as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. That guarded phrasing hardly promises a major move, but it keeps things open, and that’s what Stearns says the focus is right now. He explained: “Generally, at this stage of the offseason, you try to determine what might be realistic, what might make sense, and then you plot your offseason strategy from there.” MLBTR’s Steve Adams previously highlighted Milwaukee as a potential pursuer of top pitchers this winter.
Here’s the latest from the NL Central:
- At this stage, at least, reports of interest in Reds closer Raisel Iglesias probably ought to be taken with a grain of salt — not because there isn’t much interest, but because it’s so widespread. Per president of baseball operations Dick Williams, “the fair assumption would be that two-thirds of the teams would have interest without having them have to call,” as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. While the club surely won’t be rash in dealing Iglesias, Williams does note that the team isn’t “holding on to him out of fear of what the rest of the bullpen would do.” At the same time, other clubs are being given the sense that Cincinnati intends to keep Iglesias, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, so it seems likely that it’ll take a significant offer to gain traction in talks.
- The Reds do recognize they are well-stocked in the outfield, though Williams suggests it’s more depth than a true “surplus” from which to trade. That appears to be a fair take; while Cincinnati could end up with a bit of a playing-time logjam if things break right, that’s also far from a given. Generally, the team’s top baseball decision-maker says to expect “an opportunistic approach” to the offseason — which may also require some patience from fans.
- Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago provides an interesting overview of the dynamics that will shape the Cubs‘ efforts this offseason. GM Jed Hoyer tells Mooney that the team is approaching trade talks both with an open mind and with a loyalty to the players they’ve developed into the core of a winning club. That said, Hoyer stressed that the front office’s “No. 1 loyalty” is to Cubs fans and positioning the team to win another World Series. That, Hoyer says, could put the team into an unenviable position of having to consider trades of young players they value highly. “Certainly, I’d love to have an offseason where we didn’t have to do anything like that,” says Hoyer. “But in order to get better and make improvements in certain areas, we might.
- Meanwhile, Mooney looks at the team’s chances of re-signing closer Wade Davis as a free agent. Chicago viewed Aroldis Chapman purely as a rental when they acquired him in 2016 and let him walk as a free agent accordingly, Mooney writes, but they view Davis in a different light. President of baseball ops Theo Epstein says the Cubs “think the world” of Davis and will make an effort to bring back a player they feel is important both on and off the field. As Mooney points out, a number of big-market clubs already have high-priced closers, which could take some of them out of the running for Davis.
- Hoyer confirmed to reporters that right-hander John Lackey has indeed signaled that he aims to pitch once again in 2018 (Twitter link via ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers). Re-signing Lackey is “certainly” something the Cubs are going to talk about, per Hoyer. It remains to be seen how aggressively Chicago will pursue Lackey coming off a generally disappointing season in which he yielded an NL-high 36 homers. But, the Cubs stand to potentially lose both Lackey and Jake Arrieta this winter, so they’ll assuredly be in the market for multiple arms.
Royals Notes: Yost, Front Office, Maybin
MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan spoke to Royals manager Ned Yost following emergency surgery to repair a “shattered” pelvis that he sustained when falling an estimated 20 feet out of a hunting stand nine days ago. Yost, who just returned home from the hospital yesterday and is expected to be confined to a wheelchair for the next two months, tells Flanagan in a lengthy interview that he feels lucky to be alive. “There’s no doubt I would have bled out if I didn’t have my cellphone with me,” says Yost, who was helicoptered to a nearby hospital after his fall.
Surgeons told Yost after he had awoken that this type of injury comes with a “25 to 30 percent mortality rate” and that the doctors had grown genuinely concerned as they were initially unable to stop his internal bleeding. Thankfully, however, Yost is now hopeful that he can be on his feet again by the time Spring Training begins. It’s an enormous relief to learn that the 63-year-old Yost, who is entering his ninth season as the manager in Kansas City, is seemingly out of danger and on the road back to full health. Best wishes to him on what will hopefully be as quick a recovery as possible, under the circumstances.
A couple more notes pertaining to the 2015 World Series champions…
- Royals director of analytics Mike Groopman is leaving the club to take a new role with the Brewers in their international scouting department, reports Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. Groopman had been with the Royals since joining the team as an intern in 2008, and he played an integral role in expanding the club’s implementation of data and analytics prior to the team’s consecutive World Series appearances. Kansas City also made a front office addition, though, welcoming Albert Gonzalez back to the organization as an assistant GM specializing in international operations. Gonzalez, a Miami native, worked for the Royals for 13 years before accepting a job with the Marlins back in 2006, according to Dodd. He’ll now be tasked with overseeing the day-to-day operations of the Royals’ international department.
- MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that outfielder Cameron Maybin is among the Royals’ potential targets as they search for a new center fielder. The Royals are set to lose Lorenzo Cain as a free agent, and it was reported over the weekend that they see little chance of a reunion. Maybin brings plenty of baserunning value and reasonable contact skills to the table (19.2 percent strikeout rate over the past six seasons), both of which are areas the Royals have emphasized with great success in the past. Defensive metrics soured on his glovework in 2015-16, but he graded out as average or better in 450 center field innings per Defensive Runs Saved (neutral), Ultimate Zone Rating (+3.1) and Outs Above Average (+2). Maybin hit .228/.318/.365 with 10 homers and finished second in the American League with 33 stolen bases in 2017. (Kansas City’s Whit Merrifield led the AL with 34 swipes.)
Central News & Rumors: Royals, Bucs, Cards, Brewers
The Royals are holding out hope that they’ll be able to re-sign first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas, but they’ve “all but given up” on bringing back center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. Hosmer and Moustakas figure to collect two of the largest contracts of the offseason, which could pose a problem for small-market Kansas City, but owner David Glass believes the Royals would stay competitive by re-upping the homegrown duo and doesn’t want to “disappoint” the team’s fan base by letting either go, Heyman relays. Before Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain officially hit the market, each will have to reject $17.4MM qualifying offers from the Royals by Nov. 16. Unsurprisingly, that will happen, according to Heyman.
Here’s the latest from the National League Central:
- With their control over outfielder Andrew McCutchen and right-hander Gerrit Cole dwindling, the Pirates would be wise to listen to offseason proposals for both players, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. McCutchen, who will make $14.5MM in the final year of his contract in 2018, will “almost certainly” be in another uniform in 2019, writes Olney. Cole, meanwhile, is controllable via arbitration through ’19, and Olney argues that now may be the time to move the Scott Boras client because the Pirates probably won’t be able to extend him. Elsewhere on the Bucs’ roster, Olney points to righty Ivan Nova and lights-out closer Felipe Rivero as speculative trade pieces. Nova’s unspectacular, but he’d garner interest as a capable innings eater who’s due an affordable $9.1MM-plus per annum through next year. Rivero is only entering the first of four arb-eligible years and would likely warrant a massive return for a reliever, leading Olney to conclude that the Pirates should consider dealing him.
- The Cardinals are interested in upgrading the left side of their infield, perhaps by way of a Josh Donaldson acquisition and/or the addition of a defensively gifted shortstop, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests. This isn’t the first time the Cardinals have been connected to Donaldson, but the Blue Jays are unlikely to trade the soon-to-be 32-year-old in advance of 2018, his final season of team control. The 2015 AL MVP is projected to rake in a $20.7MM arbitration award this offseason.
- Second baseman Neil Walker is currently a free agent, so the Brewers will have to decide whether to pursue him (or another outsider) or simply stay in-house at the position, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel observes. The Brewers have experienced second base possibilities on hand in Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard and Hernan Perez, but there may not be an ideal starter in the group. While general manager David Stearns seems to believe the Walker-less Brewers are in good shape at the keystone, he’s keeping his options open. “I do think we have pieces to handle it internally,” Stearns said. “I would be happy coming back with our same position player group, if that’s the way this offseason plays out. At the same time, we’re looking to get better.”