Examining Milwaukee’s Rotation
When the Brewers effectively replaced starters Manny Parra and Braden Looper with Randy Wolf and Doug Davis this offseason, the rotation seemed better-positioned to carry the team than it was last year, when Brewers pitching was largely disappointing.
Their starters posted a 5.37 ERA a year ago and their pitching staff as a whole allowed more runs than every NL club except the Nationals. GM Doug Melvin discussed trading for Kevin Correia, Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, Brian Bannister and others when the team was in contention last summer. The Brewers even claimed Davis, but they never made a major move.
This year the Brewers are among the worst teams in the National League in runs allowed (14th) and home runs allowed (15th). Their bullpen has been disappointing, but the starters have done better than last year, combining for a 4.70 ERA.
Yovani Gallardo has been fantastic so far, with a 3.07 ERA and 11.0 K/9. Wolf's ERA is below 4.00, but he's walking significantly more batters than he did with the Dodgers last year. Like Wolf, Dave Bush has an ERA around 4.00, but is walking far more batters than usual. Meanwhile, hitters are batting .415 on balls they put in play off of Davis. That figure should drop and drag Davis' 7.56 ERA down along with it. Rounding out the rotation, Chris Narveson pitched well against the D'Backs on Sunday, but he is no sure thing.
The Brewers have some options within the organization should their current starters falter. Carlos Villanueva has experience starting and this year he's throwing harder than ever. Villanueva, the team's pitcher of the month in April, is striking out more than a batter per inning. John Axford, ranked 23rd among Brewers prospects by Baseball America before the season, is pitching well in Triple A and could be called upon to replace Villanueva in the 'pen.
The Brewers have a solid but unremarkable rotation at this point, though they're surely hoping to see Wolf and Bush limit their free passes. We can expect Davis to improve and Villanueva could contribute, so the Brewers don't appear as desperate to acquire arms as they were a year ago. It may all be a moot point. If Milwaukee can't turn things around, they may become sellers and Jeff Suppan, Davis and Bush could be trade bait for other clubs.
Melvin: Brewers Expect To Add Minor League Depth
The Brewers will look outside the organization to replace Adam Stern at Triple A, GM Doug Melvin told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). The Brewers called on Stern when they placed Carlos Gomez on the disabled list today, so they are looking to add depth in the minor leagues.
Stern, 30, hasn't played in the majors since 2007. He's off to a good start in Triple A Nashville, hitting .349/.429/.442 in 49 trips to the plate. McCalvy wonders if the Brewers could acquire Frank Catalanotto, who the Mets designated for assignment yesterday, to replace Stern at Triple A. Catalanotto was off to a poor start for the Mets, but he did hit .278/.346/.382 in 162 plate appearances for Milwaukee last year.
Gomez isn't the team's only banged up outfielder. Ryan Braun is sitting tonight's game out after being hit by a pitch from Tommy Hanson.
Odds & Ends: Lackey, Stanton, Blue Jays, Vazquez
Links for Monday, as Johnny Damon enjoys a little revenge against his former team…
- Mark Teixeira encouraged John Lackey to sign with the Yankees last winter, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- Marlins prospect Mike Stanton will likely remain in Double A until late May or early June, an MLB source tells MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. That will prevent the young power hitter from gaining Super Two status and an extra year of arbitration. The team would consider promoting Stanton to the majors from Double A at that point if he continues hitting well. Stanton has 15 homers already.
- The Brewers signed shortstop Justin Parker, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). The 23-year-old has a .237/.334/.344 line in 584 plate appearances in the low minors of the D'Backs organization.
- In a recent radio hit with The Big Show, Peter Gammons noted that the Red Sox tried to acquire Javier Vazquez during the offseason. Talking to Yankees GM Brian Cashman, Murray Chass learned that the Sox also had interest in Curtis Granderson.
- Kevin Gregg told Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune he was open for anything regarding a return to the Cubs, but they said no.
- Switching to the future tense, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports names ten players who could hit the trading block – including Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, Paul Konerko, and Ted Lilly.
- Baseball America's Jim Callis ranks all draft prospects from the last 20 years, based on how they were perceived before their drafts.
Rangers Seek Catching Help
The Rangers are looking for catching help, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal notes that the Astros, Brewers, Rays and Red Sox could also use reinforcements behind the plate. The Rays appear unlikey to deal for a catcher, partly because there aren't many backstops available.
The Rangers dealt for one of the few available catchers at the end of Spring Training, acquiring Matt Treanor from the Brewers. Treanor has impressed some with his game calling and defense, but Rosenthal says the team is looking at other options. Treanor, who has a .197/.300/.262 line in 71 plate appearances, missed most of last season with a bone spur in his right hip.
It may not be easy for GM Jon Daniels to work out a trade. The Rangers' sale is unresolved and has limited the club's ability to acquire players before. MLB prevented the Rangers from offering first round pick Matt Purke as much as they had planned to last summer, so the Rangers would presumably benefit from an immediate sale of the club.
MLBTR's Howard Megdal looked at the market for Chris Iannetta a couple weeks ago and concluded that the catcher could help teams at the major league level. The 27-year-old struggled in the majors this season and has since been demoted to the minors where he has posted a .303/.378/.667 line in 37 plate appearances. Iannetta is one of the many catchers the Rangers could inquire on.
Cafardo On Fielder, Wood, DeJesus
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe would like to see the Red Sox acquire a marquee player in his prime. Let's dive in and check out the tidbits that he has for us today..
- The Red Sox will shed a great deal of payroll this offseason thanks in large part to David Ortiz and Mike Lowell coming off of the books. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes examined the team's 2011 contract issues recently, suggesting $40MM could be freed up. With that newfound breathing room, Cafardo writes that the BoSox would like to zero in on one of three elite first basemen this winter. While he anticipates Albert Pujols remaining in St. Louis, he says that Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez could be acquired via in-season trades.
- If Kerry Wood can show that he's healthy, he should be able to attract a contending team as we approach the trade deadline. Wood was recalled from his rehab assignment in Akron on Friday. The 32-year-old is set to make $10.5MM this season but if a team were to trade for him they would only have to assume the prorated portion of that.
- David DeJesus is "more than available" for teams seeking a lefty outfield bat. In return, the Royals would seek bullpen help and a positional prospect. Kansas City was said to be expecting serious interest in DeJesus this winter. The 31-year-old earns $4.5MM this season with a $6MM option for next season.
- While there's still some skepticism in Houston that Lance Berkman would really leave the organization, one Astros organizational person opined that the 34-year-old would "fit Boston like a fiddle". However, considering his advanced age and his offensive struggles this season, he's an unlikely fit for the club at present. Meanwhile, Cafardo mentions the Mariners and White Sox as teams that could really use a bat like Berkman's.
- Meanwhile, Jeremy Hermida is an outfielder that would seem to fit Seattle, though it doesn't appear that the Red Sox would entertain offers for him right now.
If The Brewers Become Sellers
The Brewers are five games under .500, 7.5 games back in the NL Central. We're not writing them off, but it's time for the "if they become sellers" treatment.
The big question is whether the Brewers would entertain offers for Prince Fielder if they're out of contention in July. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports had a good look at the situation yesterday – perhaps they'd find more suitors in the offseason, and Adrian Gonzalez's potential availability would be a complication. If Fielder does hit the market, I expect a trade return that can help the Brewers significantly in 2011. That might mean two starters they can plug directly into the rotation. A Fielder trade would probably save the Brewers decent money, which could go toward free agents.
Corey Hart would be an interesting trade candidate. He's playing at a similar level to last year, and the Brewers might not want to give him a raise on this year's $4.8MM salary.
A slew of middling Brewers veterans would probably be made available: Jeff Suppan, Trevor Hoffman, David Riske, Doug Davis, Gregg Zaun, Dave Bush, Craig Counsell, Jody Gerut, Claudio Vargas, and Jim Edmonds. The Brewers' goal would be to save as much money as possible.
Odds & Ends: Stanton, Mariners, Indians, Salome
Friday night linkage..
- John Sickels of Minor League Ball looked at interesting high school hitters in the 2010 draft. Sickels portioned out the goodness in two parts: part one and part two.
- Tom D'Angelo of the Palm Beach Post spoke to Larry Beinfest, Marlins' baseball operations president, who doesn't sound as though he's in a rush to call up Mike Stanton.
- Rather than place Jesus Colome on waivers, the Mariners optioned Shawn Kelley to Triple-A Tacoma to make room for Cliff Lee. M's manager Don Wakamatsu told Ryan Divish of The News Tribune (via Twitter) that there was "not a chance" that Colome could have cleared waivers.
- The Indians have called up righty Hector Ambriz, whom they selected from Arizona in the Rule 5 draft, writes Dennis Manoloff of The Plain Dealer. The Tribe had until May 8th, the end of his rehab assignment, to decide what to do with him.
- Brewers catching prospect Angel Salome will be given additional time off following the birth of his child, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel.
Heyman On Fielder, Pujols, Adrian
Some tidbits from Jon Heyman on the early edition of MLB Tonight on the MLB Network,..
- Heyman doesn't envision the Brewers getting a deal done with Prince Fielder. While he was complimentary towards club owner Mark Attanasio, he doesn't see Milwaukee ponying up the $25MM a year that it will likely take to hang on to him. This means that they'll have to trade him at the end of next year or let walk as a free agent.
- Meanwhile, he believes that Albert Pujols is now in line to receive a contract worth $30MM per season, perhaps up to eight years. The two sides tabled negotiations in March but will resume after the season.
- Even though the Padres are currently in first place in the NL West, Heyman believes that the club will deal Adrian Gonzalez. Heyman says it's unlikely that San Diego will allow their payroll to balloon in great excess of $50MM and therefore a re-up of Gonzalez won't fit in the budget.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Howard, Prince, Konerko
On this date five years ago, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux faced off in the first matchup of 300-game winners since Don Sutton and Steve Carlton in 1987. Maddux's Cubs topped Clemens' Astros by the score of 3-2.
Let's look at what's being written around the blogosphere, with a heavy dose of Ryan Howard contract reactions…
- Crashburn Alley breaks down the massive contract the Phillies gave their first baseman.
- More Hardball comes up with a few reasons to dislike the deal.
- Sports Are Involved… takes a look at the price of greatness.
- Disciples of Uecker examines what Howard's deal means for Prince Fielder.
- The Pale Hose Pariah wonders if the White Sox should look to sign Paul Konerko to an extension.
- 1 Blue Jays Way interviewed Jays' prospect Zach Stewart, part of last summer's Scott Rolen trade.
- The Baseball Opinion reviews the trade that sent Ben Zobrist from the Astros to Tampa Bay.
- Camden Depot looks at the trade value of draft picks, not that MLB allows such things.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
What Does The Howard Extension Mean For Other Players?
The early verdict on Ryan Howard's five-year, $125MM contract extension isn't pretty from the point of view of several pundits, but the deal has to be great news for other slugging first basemen who may soon be hitting the free agent market. Here are some opinions on how Howard's contract will impact other major players…
- Fanhouse's Tom Krasovic spoke to John Boggs, who represents Adrian Gonzalez. Boggs feels that "[Howard's deal] bodes well for Adrian Gonzalez, because it validates the fact that he's worth that kind of money or more." Boggs noted that there have been no talks of an extension with the Padres, who have a $5.5MM club option on Gonzalez for the 2011 season that they're sure to exercise. Given Gonzalez's youth (he will be 29 when he hits free agency), great away splits (his lifetime line of .264/.365/.443 at PETCO Park is well below his .282/.364/.510 career line) and steadily improving glove (he has posted positive UZR/150 numbers over the last two years), he looks to be a strong bet to get a contract larger than Howard's from a team other than San Diego.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks at Howard's place in largest-contract history, and notes that Albert Pujols "figures to zoom by" the Phillies' slugger. Indeed, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to a five-year, $125MM extension, they would be doing jumping jacks in St. Louis right now. The Cardinals have a no-brainer $16MM option on Pujols for 2011, and no matter if Pujols re-signs in St. Louis or goes elsewhere, he'll be looking at a contract with an average annual value of over $30MM. Braves manager Bobby Cox told Goold Pujols is worth $50MM a year in light of Howard's deal.
- Prince Fielder is eliglble for arbitration this winter and can also be a free agent after the 2011 season. We've already heard whispers about the size of the deal that Fielder is looking for, and he will be just 27 when he hits the free agent market. Fielder, however, has to deal with question marks about his long-term fitness and his fielding ability (a -6.2 career UZR/150), but agent Scott Boras will no doubt have his best counter-argument prepared to rebut those concerns. With Boras at the negotiating table, it's very unlikely the Brewers will get a hometown discount.
- Pablo Sandoval is under San Francisco's control through 2014, but Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News points out that Howard's extension is a "great lesson" to Sandoval that getting in better shape can lead to bigger money in the future.