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Jake Odorizzi ‘Strongly Considering’ Twins’ Qualifying Offer

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Starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi is “strongly considering” accepting his qualifying offer from the Twins, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (link). If he accepts, Odorizzi would be set to earn $17.8MM in 2020. Final qualifying offer decisions are due by 4 pm CST this afternoon.

If Odorizzi ultimately decides to return to Minnesota under the auspices of the one-year QO, it will stand as one of the early surprises of the offseason. Although the right-hander faces some stiff competition from fellow free-agent starting pitchers on the open market, it seemed at the offseason’s outset that the former Ray could represent the very best of the market’s “third tier” of starters (following, arguably, after the triumvirate of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, and Zack Wheeler). While our free agent predictions from earlier this month did predict the 29-year-old would remain in Minnesota, his relative youth and recent production were factors in our projection of a three-year, $51MM open-market reward.

Even considering Odorizzi’s current status of contemplation, that hypothetical pact still projects as a relatively reasonable package of compensation for an under-30 starter coming off a 2019 season that resounded as a career-best. After two lackluster campaigns in ’17 and ’18, this past season saw the Illinois native record career bests in both strikeout rate (10.1 K/9) and fielding independent metrics (3.36 FIP through 159 innings) while leading a staff that helped secure an AL Central crown.

And, to be fair, it’s not as if Odorizzi’s success was exactly “out of nowhere”: between his 2015 and 2016 seasons with Tampa, the righty notched a 3.53 ERA across 81 starts. For all intents and purposes, Odorizzi’s 2019 breakouts simply seemed like a case of a formerly well-regarded youngster righting the ship after a few seasons of mid-career adjustment; add in a legitimate year-over-year jump in fastball velocity (from an average of 91.1 mph in 2018 to 92.9 mph this past season, per Statcast), and it appeared as if the hurler actually promised something of a value play to teams unwilling to enter the luxury aisle for free agent starting pitchers this offseason.

Odorizzi’s decision suddenly looms as one of the more interesting ripple effects to watch in advance of the QO deadline this afternoon. His return to the Twins would, for one, go a long way toward clearing up the club’s murky rotation picture–even if Odorizzi remains in the fold, the club would likely still need to add one (or perhaps two) starting options. Meanwhile, free agents like Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, and Julio Teheran would seem to gain leverage from having one less arm above them in the open-market pecking order.

Twins Interested In Retaining Sergio Romo

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The Twins are interested in a reunion with right-hander Sergio Romo, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The veteran righty pitched well in Minnesota upon being acquired prior to the July trade deadline but became a free agent at season’s end.

Romo, 37 in March, was acquired alongside minor league righty Chris Vallimont in a trade that sent minor league first baseman Lewin Diaz to the Marlins. Romo had been throwing well in Miami (3.58 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 17 saves in 37 2/3 innings) but was even better in 22 2/3 frames as a Twin. Following the trade to Minnesota, Romo notched a 27-to-4 K/BB ratio with a 3.18 ERA as a high-leverage option for manager Rocco Baldelli.

Minnesota will likely be more focused on starting pitching than the bullpen — the Twins have an eye-opening four rotation vacancies — but there’s room to add a couple of relievers as well. Lefty closer Taylor Rogers enjoyed a breakout season in 2019, and the Twins saw the righty trio of Trevor May, Tyler Duffey and Zack Littell dominate over the season’s final two months. Rookie right-hander Cody Stashak, too, was impressive with a 3.24 ERA and a 25-to-1 K/BB ratio in 25 innings upon being promoted to the big leagues. A lefty could be a more sensible fit given the organization’s lack of a southpaw behind Rogers, but the free-agent market is light on quality options and Romo was terrific against left-handed opponents in 2019.

The 2018-19 offseason was a long one for Romo, who, despite a lengthy track record as a quality late-inning reliever, had to wait until Feb. 15 to sign a one-year, $2.5MM deal with the Marlins. He’s coming off a much better showing in 2019 than he had in 2018, however, and the early interest from the Twins would seem to bode well for a more fruitful trip through the free-agent process this time around. Age may limit Romo to a one-year deal again — although two years isn’t impossible to imagine — but he should be in line for a better guarantee this winter. Beyond his superior 2019 performance, this year’s free-agent market for relievers is thinner than last year’s crop and fewer teams are in pure tank/rebuild mode.

Twins To Extend Derek Falvey, Thad Levine

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3:48pm: In addition to the extension, Falvey’s title has been updated to president of baseball operations, Hayes tweets. Falvey was already the top decision-maker in the organization, but the nomenclature of his previous title, “chief baseball officer,” was rather atypical. This more closely aligns with industry norms and marks a clearer definition of his status both within the Twins organization and in relation to other executives throughout the league.

2:08pm: The Twins have agreed to contract extensions with the top two members of their baseball operations department, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine are set to sign new deals that’ll keep them in the organization through the 2024 season. Both were already under contract through 2021. The news comes less than a week after the organization announced another series of front office promotions.

It’s now been three years since Falvey was brought in to take over Minnesota’s baseball operations department and quickly hired Levine to serve as his top lieutenant. The Twins’ new-look front office duo made some small-scale changes in the 2016-17 offseason, and the 2017 Twins exceeded expectations with a surprise Wild Card berth. The 2018 campaign was a disaster that led to an overhaul of the coaching staff and a series of new additions on one- and two-year deals in the 2018-19 offseason.

The Twins, under Falvey and Levine, hired eventual Manager of the Year Rocco Baldelli to replace Paul Molitor last winter before signing Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop, claiming C.J. Cron off waivers and extending potential cornerstones Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Short-term deals for Martin Perez and Blake Parker proved less fruitful, but the majority of Minnesota’s moves paid off in spades as the Twins spent the bulk of the season in first place and ultimately won the American League Central by a margin of eight games.

The 2019-20 offseason will now bring increased pressure for the team to make impactful additions with an eye toward finally breaking through a near-unthinkable run of postseason futility over the past 15 years. Pitching will be of particular importance, as Jose Berrios is the only rotation member who is under team control; Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and the aforementioned Perez are all free agents. Minnesota’s front office duo spoke last winter of being aggressive once it becomes clear that the team’s window is open, and they’ve already stated that they intend to pursue “impact” pitching this offseason. With extremely minimal payroll commitments on the books in 2020 and 2021 and a fairly modest arbitration class, the Twins are currently more than $50MM south of their club-record payroll (set in 2018), so they certainly have the resources to make good on those intentions.

Rocco Baldelli, Mike Shildt Named Managers Of The Year

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Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and Cardinals manager Mike Shildt have won Manager of the Year honors in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Tuesday evening. (As a reminder, award voting is conducted at the conclusion of the regular season but prior to postseason play.)

The 38-year-old Baldelli narrowly edged out Yankees skipper Aaron Boone. Baldelli and Boone both received 13 first-place votes, but Baldelli’s 13 second-place votes carried more clout than the nine second-place nods for Boone. Rays skipper Kevin Cash finished third on the ballot and landed three first-place votes. Oakland’s Bob Melvin, Houston’s A.J. Hinch and Cleveland’s Terry Francona came in fourth, fifth and sixth place, respectively. Hinch received the lone first-place vote that did not go to Baldelli, Boone or Cash (link to full breakdown of voting).

Baldelli secures Manager of the Year honors in his first season at the helm of a big league club. Hired to step into shoes that were most recently filled by longtime skipper Ron Gardenhire (2002-14) and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor (2015-18), Baldelli represented a significant departure from the organizational norm in Minnesota. His appointment as skipper marked a continuation of a trend toward modern, data-driven decision making in what had long been viewed as one of the game’s most traditional (and at times, insular) organizations.

Baldelli’s Twins shocked baseball by bashing a Major League-record 307 home runs and usurping the American League Central division throne. The “Bomba Squad” reignited the Twin Cities fanbase and brought numerous sellouts to Target Field late in the 2019 season as the Twins charged toward their first division championship since the stadium’s inaugural season back in 2010. Unfortunately, the postseason brought more of the same for the Twins, who were swept away in the ALDS by their postseason nemesis, the Yankees. Still, the 2019 campaign marked a clear return to relevance for the Twins, who are now widely expected to be active players on the offseason trade and free agent markets with an eye toward a deeper playoff push in 2020.

Shildt, 51, won an even tighter race to secure NL Manager of the Year honors. Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell actually took home more first-place votes (13 to 10), but Shildt’s 14 second-place votes (compared to Counsel’s six) gave him a total of 95 points to Counsell’s 88. Atlanta’s Brian Snitker finished third and received three first-place votes, while the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts was fourth place and received four first-place votes of his own. Washington’s Dave Martinez and Arizona’s Torey Lovullo finished fifth and sixth, respectively (full voting breakdown here).

Like Baldelli, Shildt was in his first full season as a big league manager, although he wasn’t a rookie, having taken over the reins of the Cardinals in July 2018 when Mike Matheny was dismissed. Shildt’s Cardinals looked like an NL Central afterthought early in the month of August, sitting at just 58-55 on Aug. 8. However, the Cardinals went on a tear to close out the season, playing at a 33-16 pace down the stretch to overtake both the Brewers and the Cubs en route to an NL Central Championship.

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Eddie Rosario Changes Representation

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Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario has changed agencies, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Roc Nation Sports will represent Rosario going forward.

Rosario, who turned 28 in September, is one of many major leaguers fresh off a career-best season in the power department. Across 590 plate appearances, Rosario smashed 32 home runs, helping the Twins amass a record 307 as a team, and posted a .224 ISO – both personal highs for him since he debuted in 2015. At the same time, though, Rosario struggled more than ever to get on base. He ultimately slashed an uninspiring .276/.300/.500 owing in large part to an inability to draw walks.

While Rosario did strike out at a meager 14.6 percent clip this year, he collected free passes just 3.7 percent of the time. Considering his game’s largely predicated on putting the ball in play, the career-low .273 BABIP Rosario logged was especially deleterious. But if we’re to believe Statcast, Rosario wasn’t really the victim of poor luck in 2019. After all, there was almost no difference between his real weighted on-base average (.329) and his expected wOBA (.330).

Despite his flawed campaign, the counting stats Rosario has put up over the past few years have him in good position as he nears his second-last trip to arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rosario will earn $8.9MM in 2020, though it’s up in the air whether the Twins will retain the three-time 20-home run hitter or attempt to move him in a trade.

Rosario’s change in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent info on thousands of Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions within, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Latest On Mets’ Coaching Staff

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The Mets will be interviewing Jeremy Hefner for their pitching coach vacancy on Monday, the Athletic’s Marc Carig reports (subscription required).  Hefner, currently the Twins’ assistant pitching coach, is a familiar name to Mets fans, as the right-hander tossed 224 1/3 innings for New York in 2012-13.

This 50-game stint comprised Hefner’s entire Major League tenure, as his career was derailed by a pair of Tommy John surgeries.  After pitching in the Cardinals’ minor league system in 2016, he decided to hang up his cleats and pursue a post-playing career as an advance scout for Minnesota.  After two years in that role, he became an assistant pitching coach for the Twins in 2019.

Hefner is only 33 years old, almost 49 full years younger than Phil Regan, who worked as the Mets’ interim pitching coach after Dave Eiland was fired in mid-June.  Hefner’s youth and knowledge of analytics make him a “conduit” of a coach, in Carig’s words, able to relate to players as a virtual peer in terms of age and recent playing experience, which helps in presenting analytical information in an easily digestible fashion.

One veteran voice who won’t be in the Mets dugout is Terry Collins, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the former manager isn’t a candidate to be the club’s new bench coach.  There was speculation last week that Collins could serve as an experienced right hand to first-time manager Carlos Beltran, though Collins will instead remain in his current role as a special assistant within the Mets organization.

Twins Announce Baseball Operations Promotions

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On the heels of a successful season, the Twins have announced several promotions within their baseball operations department. Daniel Adler and Jeremy Zoll each ascend to the rank of assistant general manager, while Alex Hassan will serve as director of player development and Jeremy Raadt will become the director of baseball systems.

The highest levels of Twins baseball operations are unchanged, so far as is known. Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and senior VP/GM Thad Levine sit at the top of the food chain, with VP/assistant GM Rob Antony and VP of player personnel Mike Radcliffe still also on the masthead.

Both Adler and Zoll arrived at the Minnesota organization in the fall of 2017, one year after Falvey and Levine took the helm in the front office. The former will run the club’s “Baseball Research and Development staff,” per the announcement, along with playing “a key role in the areas of arbitration, roster construction, athletic performance, player acquisition, and player development.” Zoll will focus his efforts on “player development and player performance efforts throughout the system and its academies, while also having heavy involvement in team operation at the major league level.”

Hassan is a familiar name in these parts. Though he ultimately appeared in only three MLB contests, recording one lone hit, Hassan took a tour of 40-man rosters around the league by way of waiver claims in 2014-15. He’s still just 31 years of age. Hassan will take over the Twins’ player development efforts just a few years after wrapping up his own playing career after the 2016 season.

As for Raadt, he’s a longtime Twins employee whose expertise lies in the technological realm. Per the club, his role requires, among other things, “the incorporation of new technologies, while working closely with front office executives, analysts, scouts, trainers and coaches to assimilate their feedback and direction in the Twins’ baseball system.”

Twins Re-Sign Tomas Telis, Jonathan Cheshire

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  • The Twins’ Triple-A affiliate announced the re-signing of catcher Tomas Telis and right-hander Jonathan Cheshire on minor league contracts. Telis, 28, appeared in the Majors each year from 2014-18, hitting a combined .230/.267/.298 in 267 plate appearances between the Marlins and Rangers. He’s a much more accomplished Triple-A hitter, though, and like many minor leaguers, he posted his best numbers ever in 2019’s heightened offensive environment in Triple-A. In 327 plate appearances with the Rochester Red Wings, Telis hit .330/.364/.490 with eight homers and 21 doubles. Cheshire, 25 this month, joined the Twins in August after struggling with the Blue Jays but showing well with the Somerset Patriots of the independent Atlantic League. Upon signing with the Twins, he tossed 13 2/3 shutout innings with a 14-to-4 K/BB ratio (one walk being intentional). The former 36th-round pick (Jays, 2017) will get another look in the upper levels of the Twins’ system on the heels of that impressive performance.

10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

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