- The Twins have right-hander Zack Wheeler “very high on their list of pitching targets,” reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That’s unsurprising, as Wheeler is the number three starting pitching option on this year’s free agent market. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in the Twins’ offseason outlook, the organization’s long-term payroll is relatively open, and starting pitching stands as the team’s biggest need this offseason. José Berrios and Jake Odorizzi are the only locks to be in the rotation next season. Wheeler figures to draw a robust market, as the MLBTR staff forecasted him for a five-year, $100MM deal at the offseason’s outset.
Twins Rumors
Twins Name Edgar Varela Hitting Coach
11:26am: The Twins announced the promotion and also revealed that they’ve hired Michael Salazar away from the Padres to serve as their new head athletic trainer. He was previously San Diego’s assistant athletic trainer. Salazar is surely familiar with Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, having spent the 2000-18 seasons working on various training staffs with the Indians organization, where Falvey was previously an assistant GM.
9:30am: The Twins will promote minor league field coordinator Edgar Varela to hitting coach for the 2020 season, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports. Varela will replace the well-regarded James Rowson, who was hired away by the Marlins as the new bench coach and “offensive coordinator” in Miami.
Varela, 39, spent a decade coaching and managing in the Pirates’ system before joining the Twins in 2018. He’ll team with assistant hitting coach Rudy Hernandez in an effort to continue the progress made in what was a breakout campaign for many of the Twins’ young hitters. Minnesota ranked first in the Majors in home runs (307), second in total runs scored (939) and tied the Nationals for the fourth-lowest strikeout rate of any team in the game (20.9 percent).
Minnesota is still waiting to find out whether bench coach Derek Shelton will return for the 2020 season or whether he’ll land a promotion with the Pirates. Shelton is reported to be a finalist in Pittsburgh’s managerial search, and if he’s ultimately offered that job, the Twins will have yet another key role to fill on 2019 AL Manager of the Year Rocco Baldelli’s staff.
Twins Looking Into Free Agent Third Basemen
The Twins have “kicked the tires” on several free-agent third basemen, including Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier, according to Darren Wolfson of Skor North. Speculatively, it would seem that Mike Moustakas could also belong to this group, though he wasn’t explicitly named as a target.
One member of the Twins who might not be pleased to hear this news? C.J. Cron. With Miguel Sano currently installed at the hot corner, there’s not an immediate fit there, so adding a pricey third baseman through free agency could force Sano to first base—at Cron’s expense. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and with MLBTR projecting a $7.7MM salary for the 2020 season, he’s a candidate to be non-tendered at the December 2 deadline.
That’s not to say that Cron is not a valuable player. With a .780 OPS and 25 home runs in 125 games for the Twins, he was a nice addition last winter and $8MM is by no means unaffordable, but the front office will certainly consider whether there are other options that could match or exceed Cron’s production at a lower price. It’s the same discussion that surrounded the Rays’ decision to designate Cron for assignment after a 2018 season in which he slugged 30 home runs, rather than pay the approximate $5MM he would’ve earned in arbitration.
And with Sano expected to earn $5.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility and coming off a decidedly better offensive season, he may very well represent a more cost-effective replacement for Cron. After rising through the minor league ranks as a third baseman, many have projected a transition to first base in Sano’s future. And after parts of five seasons in the big leagues, it seems safe to say that Sano will never be an above-average defensive third baseman: he was credited with -5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2019, and the stat believes he has cost his team runs in every season since 2015.
The Twins have quietly amassed the financial flexibility to go after the winter’s big fish, so a player of Donaldson’s caliber shouldn’t be out of the question for Minnesota. That said, they likely won’t be players for the best option on the market, Anthony Rendon. Nonetheless, if Cron is indeed non-tendered, the club would find itself comfortably below 2019’s $120MM Opening Day payroll, so the Twins shouldn’t be financially precluded from bringing in Donaldson on the three-year, $75MM deal that MLBTR projected for him. Still, there’s an argument to be made that those resources ought to be allocated to the starting rotation, which is a glaring area of weakness after the loss of Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda to free agency.
As Wolfson mentions, the team has also considered giving catcher Mitch Garver increased reps at first base. After an offensive breakout in which he hit 31 home runs in just 311 at-bats, one would think his bat could play there. Wolfson is quick to note, however, that that doesn’t constitute a full-time position change for Garver—of course, such a move would only diminish his comparative offensive value, given the dearth of slugging catchers. The Twins still think of him first and foremost as a catcher (indeed, Garver made strides as a defensive catcher this year after a rocky start to his career), though decreasing his workload behind the plate would allow the team to get his bat in the lineup for more games throughout the season. He was part of a formidable timeshare with Jason Castro in 2019, and the Twins seem reluctant to pencil in a single catcher for 130+ games in 2020, so a similar arrangement (whether with Castro, who’s a free agent, or a newcomer) could be in order this year.
Twins Interested In Blaine Hardy
- Lefty reliever Blaine Hardy has begun to attract interest on the free agent market, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter). Beck names the Twins as one team that has shown interest, though multiple organizations appear to be in on the ex-Tiger. Hardy, 33 in mid-March, was drafted by the Royals, but spent the entirety of his MLB career with the Tigers. After Detroit signed him to a minor league deal following the 2012 season, Hardy would make his major-league debut during the 2014 season, pitching to a 2.54 ERA across 38 appearances. Outside the 70 appearances he made in 2015, Hardy has been up-and-down most seasons, making between 21 and 39 appearances in the majors every year from 2016 to 2019. In all, he amassed 233 appearances across 6 seasons with the Tigers (13 starts in 2018) with a 3.73 ERA/4.11 FIP and pretty even splits between lefties and righties.
Latest On Zack Wheeler
The White Sox made the biggest splash of the young free agency season on Thursday, signing the best catcher available, Yasmani Grandal, to a long-term contract. The four-year, $73MM guarantee the White Sox handed Grandal stands as the largest deal in franchise history, but it might not be long before the team doles out an even richer pact. The White Sox remain among those after free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, per reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Jon Morosi of MLB.com (video link) and Andy Martino of SNY. They first showed interest in Wheeler well before signing Grandal.
If MLBTR’s five-year, $100MM prediction proves accurate, Wheeler could become the first nine-figure player in White Sox history. The longtime Met and former Tommy John surgery patient made a case for that type of payday during the previous two seasons with 8.9 fWAR over 377 2/3 innings, thereby putting three straight injury-ruined years behind him. Along the way, Wheeler recorded a terrific 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP with 8.91 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 and averaged a blazing 96.8 mph on his four-seam fastball.
Now, should Wheeler end up on the South Side of Chicago, he’d give the club at least two frontline-caliber starters from the get-go. Although 2019 was yet another dismal season in the standings for the White Sox, they did see Lucas Giolito emerge as a star atop their rotation. And Giolito’s hardly the lone promising starter on hand, as Chicago also boasts Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease. Meanwhile, Michael Kopech could factor into the club’s rotation from the outset of next season after missing 2018 because of a Tommy John procedure, and fellow TJ patient Carlos Rodon figures to return at some point in 2020.
Considering the 29-year-old Wheeler is the third-best starter on the open market, trailing only Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, there’s predictably substantial interest in him so far. The Angels, Padres and Twins are also among those who have been connected to him thus far. Anybody that signs Wheeler will have to surrender draft compensation, as he rejected a $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Mets a week ago. The White Sox and Angels would each give up their second-highest pick in 2020 and $500K of their international signing bonus pool, while the Padres and Twins would lose their third-highest selection.
Players Added To 40-Man Roster: American League
We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from American League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.
AL West:
- The Athletics made just one addition to the 40-man roster, righty Daulton Jefferies, which resulted in the DFA of righty Jharel Cotton (more on that move here).
- The Rangers will add at least four players to their 40-man, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Infielder Sherten Apostel, outfielder Leody Taveras, and hurlers Demarcus Evans and Tyler Phillips are all reportedly set to get a slot. Taveras is the most exciting name of this bunch; by the reckoning of some observers, he’s one of the club’s best prospects. Apostel came over in the Keone Kela trade. The two pitchers are upper-minors arms who could contribute in 2020.
- There’s 40-man movement elsewhere in Texas as well. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that the Astros have tacked on four players: Taylor Jones, Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. The last of those is the one that came from the farthest reaches of the prospect map (half a season of High-A ball); clearly, the ’Stros see him as an up-and-comer and were worried other teams would as well. Jones had a strong season at Triple-A and could fight for a bench spot. Javier and Paredes could be in the MLB bullpen mix after running up the farm ladder with high strikeout rates in 2019.
- The Angels have selected second baseman/outfielder Jahmai Jones and lefty Hector Yan, according to the club. Both players (Jones – No. 6; Yan – No. 17) rank among the Angels’ top 20 prospects at MLB.com. The 22-year-old Jones is a 2015 second-rounder who spent the past two seasons at the Double-A level, where he hit .234/.308/.324 in 544 plate appearances in 2019. Yan, a 20-year-old native of the Dominican Republic, rose to Single-A ball this past season and notched a 3.39 ERA/3.17 FIP with a whopping 12.22 K/9 against 4.29 BB/9 over 109 innings.
AL Central:
- The Twins have selected the contracts of righties Jhoan Duran and Dakota Chalmers, outfielders Gilberto Celestino and Luke Raley, and infielder/outfielder Travis Blankenhorn, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com tweets. Three of those players – Duran (No. 9), Celestino (No. 20) and Blankenhorn (No. 23) – rank among the Twins’ top 25 prospects at MLB.com.
- Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports that the Tigers have selected the contracts of infielder Isaac Paredes; outfielders Daz Cameron and Derek Hill; and right-handers Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser and Anthony Castro. Each of Paredes, Cameron, Burrows, Funkhouser and Castro are ranked inside the organization’s Top 20 prospects at MLB.com, while Hill checks in at 28th. Cameron, Hill, Burrows and Funkhouser were all top 50 picks in the MLB Draft at one point.
- Kansas City’s slate of additions was accompanied by four DFAs, as detailed here. The Royals added lefty Foster Griffin, right-hander Carlos Hernandez, shortstop Jeison Guzman and outfielder Nick Heath to the 40-man roster this afternoon.
- Seven players were added to the White Sox’ 40-man roster today, per a club announcement: catcher Yermin Mercedes, outfielder Blake Rutherford, left-hander Bernardo Flores Jr. and right-handers Zack Burdi, Dane Dunning, Matt Foster and Jimmy Lambert. Burdi and Dunning, in particular, are well-regarded pitching prospects on the mend from Tommy John surgery. Rutherford, a former first-round pick, was a key trade acquisition who was protected despite a lackluster season in Double-A and in the Arizona Fall League.
AL East:
- Infielder Santiago Espinal and righty Thomas Hatch were the Blue Jays’ pair of roster additions on Wednesday. Toronto jettisoned Tim Mayza and Justin Shafer from the 40-man roster in a pair of corresponding moves, as explored at greater length here.
- The Orioles announced that they’ve selected the contracts of left-hander Keegan Akin, right-hander Dean Kremer, infielder/outfielder Ryan Mountcastle and outfielder Ryan McKenna. Mountcastle, a former first-rounder, has long been considered among the organization’s most promising minor leaguers. Akin posted a down year in Triple-A in 2019 but has generally been successful and is viewed as a near-MLB ready arm.
- The Red Sox have added infielders C.J. Chatham and Bobby Dalbec, outfielder Marcus Wilson, and lefties Kyle Hart and Yoan Aybar to their 40-man, the team announced.The most hyped farmhand there is Dalbec, whom MLB.com ranks as the Red Sox’s second-best prospect. The 24-year-old reached the Triple-A level for the first time in 2019 after obliterating Double-A pitching, and he posted a .257/.301/.478 line with seven home runs and 29 strikeouts against just five walks over 123 trips to the plate.
Twins Rumors: Wheeler, Bumgarner, Catcher, Perez, Odorizzi
The Twins met with Zack Wheeler’s representatives at Jet Sports during last week’s GM Meetings, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North reports in his latest podcast (audio link). Minnesota also has interest in free-agent lefty Madison Bumgarner, much as they did prior to the July 31 trade deadline. The Twins filled one spot in the rotation when Jake Odorizzi accepted the qualifying offer, but they still have virtually no certainty beyond Odorizzi and fellow righty Jose Berrios. Thankfully, Minnesota has a substantial amount of payroll space given their lack of long-term commitments. Adding at least one more — and likely two more — seems like it’ll be a goal for recently extended front office tandem Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.
Some early notes in what should be a busy offseason for the Twins…
- The Twins made a multi-year offer to Yasmani Grandal last winter but aren’t expected to pursue him again this winter, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Mitch Garver’s breakout 2019 season and the continued development of prospect Ryan Jeffers has the Twins bullish on their internal catching options, even if Jeffers isn’t likely to be an option until the 2021 season. More importantly, the aforementioned needs in the rotation will take priority over sorting out who’ll share time with Garver behind the plate. Still, with Jason Castro hitting free agency and Jeffers only briefly reaching Double-A in 2019, adding a second catcher is arguably an understated need. Minnesota does have one of the game’s more unique backup options in the versatile Willians Astudillo, but “La Tortuga” batted just .268/.299/.379 in 204 plate appearances this past season (79 OPS+) and only suited up for 158 innings behind the plate. The 28-year-old Astudillo’s ability to catch and handle multiple infield/outfield positions does make him an intriguing fit as the 26th man on next year’s expanded roster.
- Also of note, Hayes writes that the Twins have some interest in bringing left-hander Martin Perez back in 2020, although clearly at a lower rate than the $7.5MM club option the team declined earlier this month. Speculatively speaking, it’d be interesting to see what the hard-throwing Perez could do in short relief stints, and the Twins don’t have much on the roster in terms of left-handed relief options beyond closer Taylor Rogers. Perez averaged 94.1 mph on his fastball as a starter in 2019 and would presumably see that velocity trend upward with a move to the bullpen.
- Odorizzi joined MLB Network’s Hot Stove show this morning to discuss his decision to accept the qualifying offer but also expressed interest in remaining with the Twins on a long-term deal (video link). “I really enjoy Minnesota,” said Odorizzi. “The people up there are fantastic. Obviously the team is really good. Our front office does a great job. Having [manager Rocco Baldelli] there is a great familiarity with me. But that’s kind of out of my control. The door is open from me, and it’s just a matter of if they want me. … I’d like to have a place where my family can settle down with me and call home, but that’s baseball — sometimes you’ve got to play it year to year and figure it out from there.”
Twins Prospect Ryan Costello Passes Away
Twins prospect Ryan Costello passed away over the weekend at just 23 years of age, the team announced Monday morning. Costello had been in Auckland, New Zealand and was slated to play third base for the Auckland Tuatara in the Australian Baseball League beginning this week.
“The Minnesota Twins are deeply saddened to learn of the untimely passing of Ryan Costello yesterday in New Zealand,” the team said in a press release this morning. “On behalf of the entire organization, the Twins send their most sincere condolences to Ryan’s family, friends, coaches and teammates.”
Preliminary indications suggest that Costello died of natural causes, writes Daren Smith of MiLB.com, citing a statement from the Tuatara. Costello was a 31st-round pick of the Mariners in 2017 and came to the Twins in the 2018 trade that sent lefty Zach Duke to Seattle. MLBTR extends its sympathies to the family, friends and teammates of Costello as well as the entire Twins organization.
Jake Odorizzi Discusses Qualifying Offer Decision
Righty Jake Odorizzi discussed his decision to accept the Twins’ qualifying offer with reporters including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (Twitter thread) and Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The chat provided some insight into Odorizzi’s thought process and future intentions.
Broadly, Odorizzi made clear he was pleased to return to Minnesota. “On a one-year deal, this was the place I wanted to be,” he said. The righty indicated that he’s comfortable in all respects with the organization — and would in fact be open to a longer arrangement.
Odorizzi is “always open” to talks on a long-term pact, he says. But he suggested he’ll leave it to the front office whether to kick-start such an effort, saying “the ball’s in their court now.”
It seems possible the Twins could explore a multi-year scenario with Odorizzi in the coming spring, but that’s a low-likelihood proposition. For a front office that plainly values long-term payroll flexibility, going beyond the existing $17.8MM commitment may not hold particular appeal. There’s always a price at which it might make sense, but Odorizzi won’t be able to generate open-market pressure again until after the 2020 season.
The muddied starting pitching market seems to have been a deciding factor in Odorizzi’s decision to accept the single-season payout. He indicated that he was in touch with plenty of clubs but was ultimately unable to gain sufficient clarity regarding his contract outlook to take the risk of hitting the market with draft compensation attached. “I didn’t want to be sitting on my couch in February,” Odorizzi explained.
Compare his situation to that of Will Smith, the left-handed reliever who secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves and declined his QO from the Giants. Though MLBTR assessed Smith’s market value beneath that of Odorizzi, the former stood out greatly in a market that lacked for premium late-inning arms. That scarcity surely made it much easier for his reps to ramp up his market in a short time frame and arrive upon a deal.
Odorizzi’s gambit could certainly pay off in the long run, though he’ll need to turn in another high-quality season for that to be the case. He says he hopes to land “at the top of the class” on the market next winter, when the Twins won’t be able to saddle him with another QO. Odorizzi is certainly young enough to take this path, though it’s always tough to pass on a chance to lock up a long-term commitment on the heels of a strong season. Of course, it’s always worth remembering that these decisions are personal to the player.
On the Twins’ side, it’s hard to see this as anything but a win. Odorizzi might have cost just as much annually on a multi-year pact on the open market. Instead, the club gets a much-needed rotation piece at a palatable single-season rate without having to commit into the future. In theory, this could make it more likely that the Minnesota org strikes big in other areas of the market — including, perhaps, some of the players that spurned qualifying offers yesterday.
7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers
The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down. An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves. Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.
Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….
- Madison Bumgarner (Giants)
- Gerrit Cole (Astros)
- Josh Donaldson (Braves)
- Marcell Ozuna (Cardinals)
- Anthony Rendon (Nationals)
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals)
- Zack Wheeler (Mets)
There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment. There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.
If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020. Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension. It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.
Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation. (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent). The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick. Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.
A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact. Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.
