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Twins, Byron Buxton Reportedly Interested In Extension

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The Twins and center fielder Byron Buxton have mutual interest in a contract extension, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic. The two sides have discussed a new pact, Bowden hears (Twitter link), though Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press tweets that there’s “no traction yet on a multiyear deal.” Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN adds that “no deal is close” (via Twitter)

The Twins aren’t in any imminent danger of losing the 24-year-old Buxton, who’s controllable for the next four seasons. He’s slated to play his final pre-arbitration year in 2018, during which he’ll attempt to build on a breakout season. An integral component of a Twins team that unexpectedly won 85 games and earned a wild-card berth in 2017, Buxton accounted for 3.5 fWAR on the strength of world-class defense, tremendous baserunning and a passable bat.

As a defender, Buxton finished first in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric (25), third in Defensive Runs Saved (24) and seventh in Ultimate Zone Rating (9.9). Offensively, Buxton posted a below-average 90 wRC+ (.253/.314/.413 in 511 PAs), but he was hugely effective at the plate in the second half of the season and also cut his strikeout rate significantly compared to 2016 (35.6 percent to 29.4). When Buxton did get on base last year, he made life miserable for the opposition. Not only was Buxton caught just once on 30 steal attempts, but he led the majors in FanGraphs’ BsR metric.

If 2017 is an indication of what’s to come from Buxton, he’ll continue to be a cornerstone for the Twins, which is what they had in mind when they selected him second overall in the 2012 draft. Buxton continued to draw major fanfare after the draft, but he was overmatched during a 138-PA debut with Minnesota in 2015 and then struggled offensively during the first half of 2016.

Although Buxton has hardly been consistent offensively, his speed and defense combine to give him a high floor. As such, even if he never puts it together at the plate over a full season, he figures to continue serving as a valuable player. It’s no surprise the Twins seemingly want him around for a while, then, and if they do continue seeking a long-term pact, recently extended center fielders Ender Inciarte (Braves) and Odubel Herrera (Phillies) stand out as somewhat comparable.

Both Inciarte (2.157 years) and Herrera (2.000) had similar service time to Buxton’s 2.064 when they received extensions last winter. And like Buxton, Herrera was entering his final pre-arb season and had four more years of control left. Inciarte also had four years remaining, but he was already about to go through arbitration for the first time. His deal bought out three potential free agent years, whereas Herrera’s bought out two.

Unfortunately for Buxton, both Inciarte and Herrera had shown more offensively at the time of their extensions. Inciarte, who was 26 when he signed, landed a five-year, $30.525MM guarantee after hitting .292/.337/.385 (95 wRC+) with 13 home runs, 56 steals and 9.5 fWAR over the first 1,586 PAs of his career. Herrera, who was approaching his 26th birthday, reeled in roughly the same guarantee as Inciarte (five years, $30.5MM) after slashing .291/.353/.419 (110 wRC+) with 23 homers, 41 steals and 7.7 fWAR in 1,193 PAs.

To this point, Buxton has taken 980 trips to the plate and batted a less-than-stellar .237/.295/.406 (84 wRC+) with 28 HRs, 41 steals and 4.6 fWAR. But if you discount a disastrous promotion in 2015 in which Buxton logged an unsightly batting line (.209/.250/.326, 53 wRC+) and accounted for minus-0.6 fWAR, you have a player who has been worth 3.9 fWAR per 600 PAs. That happens to be in lockstep with the pre-extension figures Inciarte (3.6) and Herrera (3.9) recorded.

Bowden: Twins "Unlikely" To Add Top Free Agent Starter

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  • The Twins are “unlikely” to sign any of the top remaining free agent starters – Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn – Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio hears (Twitter link). On paper, anyone from that group would bolster Minnesota’s rotation, which will go without injured No. 1 starter Ervin Santana to open the season, but the club hasn’t shown a willingness to meet their asking prices. Even without any of them on the books, the Twins are already on track to begin the year with a franchise-record Opening Day payroll (approximately $121.83MM).

No Extension Talks Between Twins, Jose Berrios

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  • The Twins aren’t in any rush to sign young right-hander Jose Berrios to a contract extension, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes. Berrios informed Berardino that the Twins haven’t approached him about a new deal, which makes sense considering they’re in no imminent danger of losing him. The 23-year-old won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 campaign, and then he’s slated to go through the arb process three times. While Berrios is already under Minnesota’s control for the long haul, he’d still understandably welcome the security of an extension. “This is the team that drafted me (in 2012) and gave me the opportunity to play in the major leagues,” said Berrios. “If they want to (sign) me for a long time, I’d be excited about that.”  A first-round pick in 2012, Berrios endured a disastrous debut in 2016 (8.02 ERA, 7.65 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 in 58 1/3 innings), but he rebounded last year to log a 3.89 ERA with 8.59 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9 over 145 2/3 frames.

Latest On The Top Remaining Free Agent Starters

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The Nationals reportedly remain open to adding to their roster before the season begins, and while they’ve been oft-linked to top remaining free agent Jake Arrieta, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports that the Nats “haven’t engaged with Arrieta’s camp recently.” The Nationals, it seems (much like the rest of baseball), would be likelier to jump into the fray if Arrieta’s price drops.

Castillo does note that at least three other clubs have made recent inquiries with Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras. One of those is likely the Phillies, who are reported to have an ongoing dialogue with Boras regarding Arrieta. However, most reports out of Philadelphia suggest that the Phils are loath to go beyond three years for the former NL Cy Yong winner, who will pitch this season at age 32 and has displayed some signs of decline in recent years — most notably a loss of velocity and worsened K/BB rates.

Alternatives for the Nats, Phillies and other clubs searching for rotation upgrades are still on the market in the form of Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, who both remain unsigned. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes, however, that the Phils are even less likely to sign Cobb or Lynn to a long-term deal than they are Arrieta (and again reports that the Phils don’t want to go past three years for Arrieta). Even a contract in the vicinity of Tyler Chatwood’s three-year, $38MM pact with the Cubs could be too rich for the Phillies’ tastes when it comes to Lynn and Cobb, Zolecki writes.

It seems that virtually every club in need of rotation help is awaiting the asking price on the top three starters to drop. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweets that both Cobb and Lynn are still seeking guarantees worth more than $50MM. (It’s worth pointing out that the manner in which that report frames draft compensation is inaccurate; the draft/international penalty for signing any of Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn is not tied to that $50MM figure, but a deal of $50MM or more would improve the compensation for the teams losing those players.)

The Orioles, Brewers, Phillies and Twins all hold varying levels of interest in Cobb and/or Lynn, Bowden notes, but not at the current asking price. The Twins’ level of interest in Lynn doesn’t appear to be especially high at this point, though. While Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN walks back a recent report a bit by tweeting that Minnesota’s offer to Lynn was for more than the $12MM he initially reported, he adds that it was nonetheless well shy of anything his camp considered and that there are no current talks between the two sides.

Market Notes: Upton, Archer, Realmuto, Holland, Lynn

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Over at The Athletic, Pedro Moura held a fascinating conversation with Angels slugger Justin Upton. (Subscription link.) There’s plenty of interest in the chat, though Upton’s comments on free agency are of particular interest and relevance. The thrust of his sentiment is that teams seem to be looking to score free-agent value rather than identifying and “courting” players they actively wish to employ. “Teams don’t value players as people anymore,” says Upton. “They value them as a number on a sheet of paper.”

Of course, Upton forewent a chance at returning to the open market by agreeing to a deal with an organization he was comfortable with. Here’s the latest on the unusually high number of quality free agents still not in camp and other market notes:

  • The likelihood remains that the Rays will enter the season with Chris Archer on the staff, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports among other notes. That’s due in no small part to the team’s lofty asking price; one rival executive suggests that the Tampa Bay front office “wanted our whole farm system” to move Archer. The club has given that impression publicly, too. Senior VP of baseball ops Chaim Bloom reiterated that the expectation is to hang onto Archer and others in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He added that the internal expectation is that it will begin to reap the rewards of an effort over recent years to bolster the farm depth while still trying to compete at the MLB level.
  • It has remained interesting to consider whether the Nationals might pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. But there isn’t much recent indication of serious talks, and Heyman indicates that’s due to what seems to be a big gulf in the sides’ valuations. Washington won’t give top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto, per the report; while the club might part with young infielder Carter Kieboom or outfielder Michael Taylor, it seems Miami was asking for too much additional talent to be included in a package.
  • The outfield market has certainly delivered some surprises thus far. Heyman says Jarrod Dyson spurned an early two-year, $14MM offer, though a source tells MLBTR that is not accurate. Dyson ultimately signed for $7.5MM with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen what’ll happen with players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Jay, each of whom were rated among the fifty best free agents this winter by MLBTR. Heyman says the Indians are still looking at right-handed outfield bats, though it would surely be a surprise for the team to plunk down any meaningful money to make an addition. Perhaps the trade route could still hold some surprises, though that’s pure speculation on my part.
  • Veteran reliever Greg Holland might have overplayed his hand in spurning the Rockies earlier in the winter. Colorado was willing to give him something approaching the three-year, $51MM deal the team ultimately inked with Wade Davis, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests in an appearance on the podcast of Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s premature, perhaps, to declare that Holland won’t be able to top that number, though it’s frankly difficult to see where that level of interest might come from — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has recently explained.
  • Holland’s list of suitors is in question at the moment. One thing that seems clear, per Heyman, is that the Cubs aren’t planning on making a surprise run at the closer. Rather, Chicago seems largely committed to utilizing Brandon Morrow in the ninth inning and is likely to hold back its remaining payroll reserves for potential mid-season additions.
  • So, how low could the remaining pitchers go? Presumably there’s a point at which some bidding would occur. But it’s notable that, per ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson (podcast link), the Twins expressed interest in Lance Lynn in the range of just $10MM to $12MM over two seasons. Just how that level of interest came about and was expressed isn’t clear. The team has also made some fairly notable recent commitments and may just not have much more payroll flexibility. And it certainly shouldn’t be taken as evidence of Lynn’s current market value. Still, it’s interesting to learn that’s the current extent of Minnesota’s interest.

Futures Of Grossman, Vargas Clouded By Morrison Signing

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  • Following Minnesota’s signing of Logan Morrison, manager Paul Molitor sat down with first baseman/DH Kennys Vargas, outfielder/DH Robbie Grossman and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar to discuss how the trio’s status could be impacted, writes Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Grossman and Vargas will be the most directly impacted with LoMo set to be the Twins’ primary DH, and both are out of minor league options. Grossman, who agreed to a $2MM salary in arbitration this offseason (albeit a non-guaranteed one, as is standard with arb deals), had a “very professional response” per Molitor. The switch-hitter acknowledged that he needs to demonstrate improved defensive skills in order to play a significant role on the team. While the Twins don’t technically need their fourth outfielder to be center-field capable due to the ability of corner outfielders Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler to man center, the lack of DH at-bats is problematic for Grossman, who made 61 appearances in that slot last season. It’s even tougher to see how Vargas fits into the equation, as he’s strictly limited to first and DH and is now behind both Morrison and Joe Mauer on the depth chart.

Morrison Had Offer From Royals Before Signing With Twins

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Newly signed Twins DH Logan Morrison received an offer from his hometown Royals before signing in Minnesota, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The 30-year-old slugger said earlier in the offseason that he’d love to suit up for his hometown club, though that was before Kansas City began selling off pieces and made clear signals of a rebuilding effort. Per Berardino, Morrison’s desire to play for a contending club took priority. Morrison will join the heart of a young Twins lineup on the upswing in hopes of reaching the postseason for the first time in his career, though the questions that permeate the Twins’ rotation still leave Cleveland as a the division favorite.

Nationals Still Weighing Additions; Angels, Twins Likely Done

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With Spring Training in full swing and several recent signings taking a few more players off of the free-agent board, much of the offseason picture is finally now in focus. Of course, as MLBTR’s 2017-18 MLB Free Agent Tracker shows, there are still some big names available. Several organizations clearly also have unfinished business, while others may already feel they’ve addressed their needs or maxed out their resources.

Here are some notes on teams’ plans on the day before the calendar flips to March:

  • The Nationals are still eyeing improvements, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). In particular, the Washington front office “remain[s] engaged” with the top remaining free agent, starter Jake Arrieta. But it seems that he’s not the sole player of interest, as the organization is said to be “monitor[ing]” the market for possibilities. It is worth noting that several other remaining free agents could fit the Nats rather comfortably on paper, potentially including other starters such as Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, top reliever Greg Holland, and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Of course, there’s no real indication whether any of those players are presently seen as options within the Nationals organization.
  • Quite the opposite impression is being given by the Angels, as Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets. GM Billy Eppler says that the organization is “not looking to pursue anything” else after a busy winter, though he does note that he’s “open-minded to things that come around.” That certainly sounds more like a willingness to entertain bargain-rate signings than any kind of interest in pushing for another significant addition. The Halos could clearly stand to improve their pitching, though it also may be that the front office prefers to allow existing options to rise or fall before addressing any needs at the trade deadline. At present, the Angels seem to have around $25MM in payroll space before bumping against the luxury line, though the organization is surely also loath to add too much to the future balance sheets.
  • It seems the Twins also feel their roster-building work is done, with chief baseball officer Derek Falvey telling reporters including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that there’s a “high likelihood” the team has already compiled its Opening Day unit. Minnesota did make quite a few acquisitions over the winter, including recent moves for Jake Odorizzi and Logan Morrison that added fairly significant salary commitments for the 2018 season. Some have wondered whether another rotation piece would make sense, but that doesn’t seem to be in the plans at present. Minnesota is slated to open with a club-record $116MM+ payroll, though the organization had already been in nine figures to open each of the past three years.

Twins Sign Logan Morrison

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FEBRUARY 28: Morrison’s signing is now official.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets some further detail on the operation of the contract. Morrison can earn $500K apiece in bonus pay this year upon reaching 450, 500, and then 550 plate appearances. The number of times he strides to the plate could also impact the vesting/club option: if he tops 500 plate appearances it will move to $8.5MM; at 550 plate appearances it becomes $9MM; and at 600 plate appearances the option vests at a $9.5MM price tag.

FEBRUARY 25, 3:45pm: Morrison’s option will automatically vest if he amasses 600 PAs this year, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports (Twitter link). The deal also includes $1MM in reachable incentives each season, and Morrison’s 2019 salary could increase to $9MM, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.

1:33pm: Morrison will earn $5.5MM in 2018, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The vesting option is worth $8MM and comes with a $1MM buyout.

12:54pm: The Twins and free agent first baseman Logan Morrison have agreed to a deal, pending a physical, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports on Twitter. It’s a one-year, $6.5MM guarantee with escalators and a vesting option that could make it a two-year, $16.5MM pact, Morosi adds. Morrison is a client of ISE Baseball.

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Morrison will go down among the most notable victims of this year’s slow-moving free agent market, one he surely entered with hopes of securing a richer pact after a career campaign with the Rays in 2017. Instead, between hitting free agency in November and finally agreeing to join the Twins, Morrison didn’t draw much reported interest on the market. As a result, he’ll fall well shy of the three-year, $36MM guarantee MLBTR predicted he’d receive at the outset of the winter.

While this has been a disappointing past few months for Morrison, adding him for a relatively affordable cost could be a significant coup for a Twins team that’s coming off its first playoff season since 2010. The Twins’ offense was a key reason for its success in 2017, as the unit finished tied for fifth in the majors in wRC+ (102) and seventh in runs (815). That was without high-end DH production from the duo of Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas. Now, Morrison seems likely to see the bulk of the action at DH for Minnesota, which already has Joe Mauer at first base.

[RELATED: Updated Twins Depth Chart]

The 30-year-old, left-handed-hitting Morrison was one of the majors’ most formidable offensive players last season, when he slashed .246/.353/.516 (130 wRC+) across 601 plate appearances. Morrison also notched 38 home runs and a .270 ISO, placing him among the league’s best power hitters. It was an unexpected outburst from Morrison, who was essentially a league-average hitter during stints with the Marlins and Mariners from 2010-16. He found another gear thanks to a newfound emphasis on putting the ball in the air, evidenced by a 46.2 percent fly rate (up from a lifetime 37.5), and increased patience. Morrison walked in 13.5 percent of PAs, a good bit higher than his career figure (10.5).

Morrison was also somewhat of a Statcast darling in 2017, as he upped his launch angle from 12.1 degrees in 2016 to 17.4 (h/t: Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com) and ranked among the majors’ top 32 hitters in both barrels per PA and balls hit at least 95 mph. Consequently, he finished with one of the league’s top expected weighted-on base averages (.365), just beating out his real wOBA (.363).

The addition of Morrison is the latest big move by the Twins in their efforts to overtake the Indians in the AL Central. Minnesota hasn’t lost any key contributors from the 85-win team it fielded a year ago, though third baseman Miguel Sano (potential suspension) and starter Ervin Santana (finger surgery) could each miss the start of the season. Regardless, along with Morrison, the Twins have picked up pitchers Jake Odorizzi, Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke since last season ended. Odorizzi knows Morrison from Tampa Bay, and he helped recruit him to Minnesota, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press.

“I’ve had conversations with (Morrison) about here,” Odorizzi said prior to the agreement. “We’ll see what comes out of it.”

Odorizzi has also talked with free agent Alex Cobb, another ex-Ray, about joining the Twins. The club continues to seek a front-line starter, according to Berardino, so it seems possible Cobb will join Odorizzi and Morrison in Minnesota. That would further drive up a payroll which, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource, is currently slated to check in at a franchise-record $124.8MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

League Investigators Interview Miguel Sano

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Major League Baseball conducted its interview with Miguel Sano today as part of its investigation into assault allegations that were brought forth against him back in December, report La Velle E. Neal III and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Sano missed the Twins’ afternoon workouts today as he complied with the investigation and won’t be in the lineup for their evening game. As Neal and Miller note, the interview figures to be one of the league’s final steps in its investigation into the allegations against Sano. Once the investigation is complete, the results will be presented to MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, who will then determine whether any discipline is required for the Minnesota third baseman.

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