- As many have observed, the Twins appear to be one of the prime beneficiaries of the collapse of free-agent demand this winter. Both Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn agreed to surprising one-year deals with Minnesota; as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reports, both elected to go there in no small part owing to the hope that their single season would be with a winning organization. While those two veterans surely anticipated quite a bit more earning power, it seems there are good vibes all around in Twins’ camp.
Twins Rumors
Twins Notes: Payroll, Offseason, Deadline, Shortstops
ESPN.com’s Buster Olney breaks down a big offseason for the Twins in an Insider post. While the team still faces a lofty task in unseating the Indians in the AL Central, it certainly seems to have achieved plenty of bang for the buck in adding multiple veteran pieces this winter. The Twins are on track to have over $125MM on the books to open the 2018 season, which will easily set a club record. Perhaps the most notable aspect of the organization’s opportunism this winter, though, is that it was able to add a variety of quality veterans without committing much at all in future resources. Not only that, but the club also feels quite confident in its prospect base, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription link). GM Thad Levine says the organization feels it has the pieces in place to allow the team to pursue yet more external acquisitions in the near future without compromising its long-term outlook.
- Meanwhile, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told reporters today that owner Jim Pohlad did not veto anything proposed by his front office this offseason despite the payroll climbing to record heights (via Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). While Falvey said the team will (obviously) evaluate trade needs more closely as the non-waiver deadline approaches this summer, he implied that he expects to have continued support from ownership. “I can tell you this: I know Jim Pohlad is committed to this team and committed to winning because he just proved it,” said Falvey at the press conference to introduce Lance Lynn.
- On a similar note (and also via Berardino), Falvey implied that the team’s pursuit of Yu Darvish wasn’t ultimately called off due to any kind of reluctance from Pohlad but rather because the bidding simply went beyond a point where the team felt comfortable from a baseball standpoint. “There were other opportunities we were pursuing that we tapped out ourselves,” Falvey said when asked about Darvish. Though he didn’t mention the righty by name, Falvey indicated that at times, players of interest to the Twins simply received offers that went beyond internal valuations in terms of years and/or dollars.
- La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune takes a look at the considerable shortstop depth the Twins have throughout their minor league ranks due to the presence of Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon and Wander Javier. All three landed on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list, and Falvey spoke to Neal about the importance of that depth even with present-day shortstop Jorge Polanco entering just his second full big league season. As Falvey notes, some of the in-house prospects could move off the position, and it’s also of course possible that Polanco could move across the bag to second base should Brian Dozier leave via free agency. Neal notes that the Twins believe all three can play shortstop in the long run but are heartened by knowing that each has the athleticism to move around if needed. Gordon is likely ticketed for Triple-A to open the season, while Neal notes that in an ideal world, the 18-year-old Lewis (last year’s No. 1 overall pick) would open the year at Class-A Advanced with Javier in the Class-A Midwest League.
Twins Sign Lance Lynn
The Twins have continued their aggressive, late foray into the free-agent market, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Lance Lynn to a one-year contract. He’ll earn $12MM, per the team, confirming previous reports on his salary. The deal reportedly allows Lynn to earn another $2MM worth of incentives — half each upon reaching 170 and 180 innings. Lynn, a client of Excel Sports Management, will get right going with the Twins and start their Grapefruit League Game against the Orioles tomorrow, per the team’s announcement.
The pact makes Lynn the latest victim of a slow-moving offseason in which a number of high-profile players have been forced to settle for one-year deals that look diminutive in comparison to those they were expected to receive. At the outset of the offseason, we ranked Lynn ninth on our list of the top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d receive $56MM over four years. More recently, our player profile for the righty suggested he could even achieve a $60MM deal. Obviously, the (relatively) meager $12MM guarantee from the Twins falls significantly short of those expectations. He’ll instead join Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gonzalez as players who were widely expected to merit hefty multi-year pacts but will ultimately be guaranteed less money than reliever Juan Nicasio.
As for the Twins, the deal comes as the latest move of an incredibly busy (and cost-efficient) offseason during which the club has managed to patch its rotation quite nicely. After missing out on Yu Darvish, to whom the club reportedly offered a nine-figure contract that would’ve shattered the club record, the Twins traded a low-profile prospect for Jake Odorizzi and have now gotten an incredible bargain on Lynn. Minnesota also managed to bring Morrison to Minnesota on just a $6.5MM deal with incentives and a vesting option. Though Lynn and Morrison were widely expected to command in the vicinity of $100MM in combined guarantees, the Twins will promise them a total of just $18.5MM. The club has also shored up their bullpen this winter by signing Addison Reed, Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney.
Lynn will join Odorizzi as a newcomer in the rotation, which will also eventually feature three holdovers in the form of Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson. Santana, however, will be out for as much as the first month of the season after undergoing surgery in February to repair an injury in his right middle finger. The increased number of off-days early in the season could cause the Twins to largely get by without a fifth starter in that time, though lefty Adalberto Mejia and veteran Phil Hughes (returning from his second thoracic outlet surgery) are among the on-hand options should a fifth starter be needed. The addition of Lynn likely pushes Tyler Duffey back to the bullpen and further lessens the organization’s need to rush top prospects Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves to the Majors.
[RELATED: Updated Minnesota Twins Depth Chart/Updated Minnesota Twins Payroll]
The 30-year-old rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals at the outset of the offseason, so the Twins will be forced to forfeit a 2018 draft pick after signing him. But because the Twins were revenue-sharing recipients in 2017 and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, that pick will be just their fourth-highest of the draft (number 95 overall). They’d normally be required to surrender their third-highest pick, but for Minnesota that’s a protected selection in Competitive Round B. For Lynn’s part, he’ll no longer be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next year thanks to a provision in the new CBA.
Lynn’s spent his entire career thus far with the Cardinals, who selected him with a supplemental first round pick in 2008. He reached the majors for the first time in 2011, and pitched his first full season in the majors the following year. From that point, he chucked 752 2/3 innings for the Redbirds (to the tune of a 3.39 ERA) across four seasons before tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2015. After returning to the mound to kick off the 2017 campaign, the righty made 33 starts and posted a 3.43 ERA.
Although it seems on the surface that he picked up right where he left off, pre- and post-Tommy John surgery Lynn don’t look like the exact same pitcher. While he boasted a career K/9 of 8.67 prior to going under the knife, his 2017 mark was a meager 7.39. Likewise, his 4.75 xFIP last season was almost exactly a full run higher than the 3.74 figure he owned prior to 2016. His control wasn’t quite as good either, as evidenced by a 3.77 BB/9 mark in 2017. His pre-Tommy John mark was just 3.35. These statistical red flags, along with a 0.6 MPH drop on his average fastball, may have been part of the reason teams were wary of giving him a long-term pact. Still, he’s at least got durability going for him; outside of 2016 he’s thrown at least 175 innings in each of his full major league seasons.
The Lynn deal seems to spell bad news for fellow right-hander Alex Cobb who remains on the free agent market. It’s tough to imagine that Cobb, who’s also one season removed from Tommy John surgery and owns similar career run-prevention numbers, will be able to substantially eclipse Lynn’s guarantee. With just under three weeks until Opening Day, it’ll be interesting to see what type of contract the top remaining free-agent starter can secure, especially in relation to his most statistically comparable open-market competitor.
FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported the two sides were close to a deal (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links). Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweeted details of the incentives.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Did The Twins Win The Offseason?
Perhaps no team gained as much from the offseason’s slow free agent market as the Twins, who were able to sign Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison to one-year deals far below their expected asking prices. These signings augmented Minnesota’s heavier investment in relief pitching (Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke) and its acquisition of Jake Odorizzi from the Rays for just a lightly-regarded minor league infielder. “We recognized relatively early in this offseason that there are different rules to this card game and we kept getting dealt different cards,” Twins GM Thad Levine tells Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown. “We had to figure out how to keep our head above water in this new game….It would be a little disingenuous for me to say that we had any forecast associated with seeing that this was on the horizon and that we plotted these moves. We really were more reacting to how the market was unfolding and trying to make the most of our opportunities.”
While the team itself is obviously pleased at the roster upgrades, Phil Hughes noted that it also “a little bit conflicting” for Twins players as they recognize how some of their fellow union members have been left shortchanged on the open market. “You recognize there’s a problem with the way free agency is being handled now,” Hughes said. “But, we’re benefiting from a couple of these guys who shouldn’t have fallen into our laps….You certainly would rather be the team getting these guys for sweetheart deals than the team not getting them.”
Twins Release Anibal Sanchez
The Twins will release right-hander Anibal Sanchez, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune reports on Twitter. Sanchez’s 40-man roster spot will go to fellow righty Lance Lynn, whom the Twins added on a one-year, $12MM deal Saturday.
The Twins brought Sanchez aboard less than a month ago, signing him to a split contract that could have been worth $2.5MM had he made their roster. Minnesota then went on to acquire both Jake Odorizzi and Lynn, making Sanchez superfluous in the team’s opinion. The Twins will now have to pay Sanchez $417K in termination pay, which would have risen to $625K had they waited until Monday to cut him, Miller tweets.
While Sanchez has been a terrific starter for the majority of his career, which began in 2006 with the Marlins, the 34-year-old is clearly on the downside. Sanchez is coming off three straight subpar seasons with one of the Twins’ division rivals, the Tigers, and was hoping to reemerge as a viable starter in Minnesota.
Most recently, Sanchez tossed 105 1/3 big league innings in 2017, which he divided between the Tigers’ rotation and bullpen (28 appearances, 17 starts), and logged an ugly 6.41 ERA despite quality strikeout and walk rates (8.89 K/9, 2.48 BB/9). The Tigers then bought Sanchez out for $5MM in lieu of picking up his $16MM option for 2018.
Twins Offered Lance Lynn Two-Year Deal Earlier
- The Twins agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Lance Lynn on Saturday, but they were willing to make a greater commitment to the ex-Cardinal during the winter. Minnesota offered Lynn a tw0-year pact then, per Nightengale (Twitter link). As with Moustakas, it was a shockingly underwhelming trek to free agency for Lynn, whose new accord guarantees him $12MM – far less than anticipated when free agency opened in November.
AL Central Notes: Escobar, Morrison, Robert, Merryweather, Mize
Alcides Escobar returns to the Royals with a not-so-lofty goal in sight, Rustin Dodd writes in a piece for The Athletic. Kansas City’s long-time shortstop wants to finish the season with an on-base percentage above .300 for the first time since the 2014 season. He says that he’s working on “taking a lot of pitches each at-bat” and trying to avoid swinging at bad pitches, both of which seem like obvious things to work on. Escobar owns a career OBP of just .294, and his .272 figure last year was the second-lowest among qualified MLB hitters (Rougned Odor’s .252 was the lowest, for those keeping track). That .272 mark for “Esky” was the result of drawing just 15 walks, his lowest full-season total ever.
A roundup of some other news items out of the AL Central…
- Recent Twins signee Logan Morrison reportedly suffered a right glute strain while running the bases on Wednesday, according to Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. He was held out of Friday’s game, and is expected to miss today’s matchup as well. However, the injury isn’t considered serious. Minnesota brought the former Tampa Bay first baseman into the fold with a $6.5MM guarantee that includes a vesting option. He hit .246/.353/.516 last season with the Rays while smacking a career-high 38 home runs.
- The White Sox are dealing with a more significant injury. Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribute tweets that farmhand Luis Robert has a moderate thumb sprain. Daryl Van Schouwen provides further details on the situation with his own tweet, adding that GM Rick Hahn expects the young outfielder to be immobilized in a cast for six weeks, and to be held out of game action for ten. Robert hit a phenomenal .310/.491/.536 in Rookie ball last season; Baseball Prospectus ranks him as the South Siders’ fifth best prospect, and number 55 overall.
- Continuing with injury news, Indians prospect Julian Merryweather will officially undergo Tommy John surgery after recently being diagnosed with a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. The right-hander was a fifth-round pick by the Tribe during a 2014 draft in which the club also landed Bradley Zimmer, Triston McKenzie and Bobby Bradley. Merryweather had been solid at all levels of the minors before struggling to a 6.58 ERA across 16 starts at Triple-A Columbus last season, though his 3.89 xFIP suggests he dealt with some unfortunate homer/fly ball luck.
- Auburn right-hander Casey Mize is “the name to watch” for the Tigers as we approach the 2018 June amateur draft, says Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. After skidding to a 68-94 record last season, Detroit owns the number one overall pick in the draft, and as Passan notes, the club loves big college arms. Mize threw a no-hitter last night and was throwing 96 MPH up through the ninth inning. Scouts in attendance say he was throwing a “filthy split” as well.
Pitching Notes: Uehara, Lincecum, Senzatela, Hoffman, Kohn
Reliever Koji Uehara says that he is open to considering offers from teams in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league, as the Japan Times recently reported. That’s something of a reversal from the 42-year-old reliever, who had indicated he did not intend to play again in his homeland. After preparing for the MLB season, but finding interest scant, Uehara now says he has changed his mind and would consider pitching once again in the NPB. It’s at least a bit surprising that Uehara has not generated more pursuers among major-league clubs. He continued to produce declining results in 43 innings last year, finishing with a 3.98 ERA, but still ended with 10.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 and generated a strong 15.8% swinging-strike rate.
Here are a few more pitching notes from around the game:
- While it’s clear the Rangers intend to utilize new pitching addition Tim Lincecum in the bullpen, just how he’ll be deployed isn’t yet clear. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram posted a video of the former ace discussing his new club. It seems that Lincecum is intrigued by the possibility of closing but is largely open to fitting in wherever the team prefers. “They see that,” Lincecum says of working in the 9th. “I feel like I could do that. I’ve done that in the Cape and at the college level. It’s going to be, obviously, different, but I feel like I could tap into that mentality.”
- The Rockies elected this offseason to make a number of bullpen additions but not to pursue outside acquisitions for the rotation. That decision was no doubt as much about the team’s assessment of its internal options as it was about a need to maximize resources. In a pair of articles, here and here, Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports on two key staff members. Antonio Senzatela is said to be hard at work on his secondary offerings, with a new change-up in the works alongside continuing work on a curve. Meanwhile, fellow young righty Jeff Hoffman dealing with a shoulder issue. There’s no indication its a serious injury, but Hoffman is still going to rest for at least a week or more before he resumes throwing. As things stand, the Rox may be lined up to utilize a five-man unit that does not include either of these hurlers, as the current Roster Resource depth chart projects, but both are important parts of the near-term and future picture in Colorado.
- When the Twins brought in righty Michael Kohn last fall, the hope was that he could rebound from a rotator cuff problem and get his career back on track. Unfortunately, he’ll now require an absence of four to six months to recuperate from a “nerve issue,” per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). The 31-year-old Kohn has a 3.52 ERA in 115 career innings in the majors, though that has come with a 111:79 K/BB ratio. It’s hard to read much into his results last year, as they were mostly accumulated in the low minors, but Kohn was able to make it through 13 solid innings late in 2017, over which he racked up 18 strikeouts against just four walks while permitting two earned runs on eight hits.
Lance Lynn Reportedly Rejected Two-Year, $20MM Offer From Twins
The Twins’ recently reported two-year offer to Lance Lynn was for a total of $20MM, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Lynn’s camp considered that offer a “non-starter,” however, according to Berardino. Minnesota remains open to adding a starter on an affordable and relatively short-term pact, Berardino continues, noting that outside of the team’s $100MM+ offer to Yu Darvish, all of their offseason free-agent dealings have been at one- or two-year terms. He adds that the Twins aren’t aggressively pursuing Alex Cobb, and given Lynn’s apparent unwillingness to consider a two-year term, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will ultimately be a landing spot for any of the top three remaining starters. There are still a few intriguing names on the market who could sign shorter-term deals, including John Lackey and Trevor Cahill, though the Twins haven’t been strongly tied to any of them.
Twins Have Not Approached Brian Dozier About Extension
Brian Dozier has emerged as one of the faces of the Twins’ franchises in recent years, but he’s now on the precipice of free agency and has not been approached by the team about a contract he tells Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Dozier is earning $9MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $20MM contract which bought out all of his arbitration seasons. A new contract, though, does not look to be in the cards at this time, according to the infielder himself.
“I don’t want to touch too much on this, it’s the thing that gets asked all the time, but at the same time, I will be a free agent this fall,” Dozier said to Souhan. “That’s the bottom line. You can only say you want to be here so much, and nothing gets done.”
Dozier has, as he implied, stated on multiple occasions that he hopes to remain in the Twin Cities for the long haul. The lack of a spring extension certainly doesn’t preclude that from happening, though in-season negotiations are rarer, and his quality track record would figure to generate interest from multiple clubs next winter. While many Twins fans may hope for some late-developing negotiations, Dozier’s comments don’t lend much reason for optimism.
“I’ve said I wanted to stay here since forever, but I’ve really vocalized it the last couple years,” said Dozier (via Bollinger). “But I just don’t think it’s in their future, from what I’ve been told. … It’s pretty much black and white from what I’ve been hearing, which is upsetting, but you turn the page and play to win.”
A former eighth-round pick out of Southern Mississippi, Dozier debuted as a largely unheralded prospect and solidified himself as a quality regular before breaking out in recent years as one of the game’s most powerful second basemen. Over the past two seasons, the 30-year-old has slashed .269/.349/.522 with 76 homers, and he’s hit a total of 104 long balls over the past three seasons. He’s been a durable source of production in Minnesota as well, averaging 153 games and 686 plate appearances per year since his first full season back in 2013.
If the Twins are prepared to stick with internal options, they’ll have no shortage of intriguing up-the-middle players to turn to in the coming years. Jorge Polanco put together a huge two-month finish to the 2017 season and will open the ’18 campaign as Minnesota’s primary shortstop, though scouting reports have suggested that second base is his best position. Former top 10 pick Nick Gordon is on the cusp of MLB readiness and could occupy one of the two middle-infield slots in the near future. Royce Lewis, the top pick in the 2017 draft and Wander Javier, who received a $4MM bonus on the international market from the Twins, are further down the line but are viewed as potential key infield pieces in the long term.
Of course, going that route would likely weaken the Twins’ chances in 2019 when the team further hopes its young core has come into its own in an AL Central that’ll still have at least two rebuilding clubs (Royals, Tigers). That’ll all be factored into the ultimate decision of chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine, to be sure. One element that seems clear is that a lack of commitment to Dozier wouldn’t stem from payroll limitations; the Twins have just four players under contract for the 2019 season and somewhat remarkably don’t have a single dollar on the books in 2020 and beyond.
Dozier will turn 31 in May, meaning any new contract — be it an extension or a free-agent deal — would begin with his age-32 season. Dozier, Daniel Murphy and DJ LeMahieu will headline next year’s crop of free-agent second basemen, where they’ll be joined by a quality utility option also capable of playing second base in the form of Marwin Gonzalez.
