Twins Rumors

Dodgers Have Inquired Into Ian Kinsler, Brian Dozier

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2016 at 4:47pm CDT

4:40pm: It may not even be that realistic for the Tigers to match up with the Dodgers, given that Kinsler can decline a trade to them and would demand an extension to do so.

Los Angeles is obviously looking in other places for a second baseman, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes that they have made contact with the Twins on Brian Dozier — who’d also be a quality, right-handed bat who comes with two years of control.

2:52pm: The Tigers and Dodgers have held some degree of trade talks regarding Detroit second baseman Ian Kinsler, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). The connection is an obvious on-paper fit, considering Detroit’s stated desire to pare down payroll and get younger as well as the Dodgers’ lack of a clear starter at the position. While the Kinsler talks are of course worth noting, it should also be recognized that the Dodgers are casting a wide net as they explore options, and Kinsler has a partial no-trade clause which could potentially impact talks. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports that Kinsler is currently one of four players in whom the Dodgers have interest with regard to their vacancy at second base (Twitter link).

One prospect in whom the Tigers have interest is first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger, according to Morosi, who notes that the Tigers are seeking left-handed power. The 21-year-old Bellinger moved from Class-A Advanced to Double-A in 2016 and, in addition to hitting quite well (.263/.359/.484 with 23 homers) slashed his strikeout rate by a considerable margin (27 percent in ’15, 19.7 percent in ’16). Bellinger moved up to Triple-A for the final three games of the season and ripped another three long balls to further add to his impressive year. MLB.com currently ranks him 31st on its list of Top 100 prospects, while Baseball America rated him 24th on their midseason Top 100. Both reports rave about his defense at first base, though MLB.com points out that he’s started games in center field in the minors and has the speed and athleticism to handle a corner spot in the Majors. BA feels there’s 30-homer potential in Bellinger’s bat.

From the Dodgers’ vantage point, Kinsler is among the most natural targets imaginable for their need at second base. The 34-year-old will play next season on a reasonable $11MM salary and comes with a $10MM option for the 2018 season ($5MM buyout). In addition to having multiple years of affordable control on his deal, he’s coming off yet another excellent year in which he batted .288/.348/.484 with 28 homers and 14 stolen bases. Kinsler rated 8.5 runs above average, per Ultimate Zone Rating, and drew an even more favorable mark from Defensive Runs Saved (+12). He also chipped in strong contributions on the basepaths and, perhaps most appealing of all to L.A., mashed opposing left-handers at a .309/.369/.525 clip in 2016. That line, and Kinsler’s career .306/.372/.507 line against southpaws, have to be tantalizing to a Dodgers club that hit just .213/.290/.332 against lefties as a collective unit in 2016 — dismal enough to easily translate to a league-worst 72 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.

Certainly, though, Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman and his staff have alternatives if they deem Detroit’s asking price too high. Friedman & Co. need only look elsewhere in the American League Central to find another highly plausible trade candidate in the form of Brian Dozier, for instance. Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips may well come at a lower cost if he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause for the chance to play on a contending team, and Philadelphia’s Cesar Hernandez has seen his name surface in trade rumors as well. As far as free agents go, a reunion with Chase Utley seems plausible as well.

Twins Surveying Market For Catching Upgrades

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2016 at 11:26am CDT

The Twins are among the teams that are “aggressively digging” into the market for catching upgrades, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney in his daily blog (Insider subscription required and recommended). Olney notes that Minnesota may prove to be a landing spot for free agent Jason Castro, adding that there’s an expectation within the industry that Castro will receive at least a three-year deal. As of last week, Castro was said to have offers from three AL clubs, and the Twins were rumored to be reconvening with his reps sometime this week, perhaps to make an offer of their own.

Olney notes that Castro excels at pitch-framing, and new Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey comes from an Indians organization that heavily emphasized that skill. I noted as much when previewing the Twins’ winter in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series, and Castro does indeed fit that mold quite well. It’s also perhaps telling that Kurt Suzuki, who has been the Twins’ primary catcher for the past three seasons despite consistently poor framing marks, seemingly drew little interest from the Indians following Yan Gomes’ injury. Cleveland continued to deploy the light-hitting Roberto Perez as its primary backstop due largely to his proficiency in stealing extra strikes.

Of course, Castro is hardly the only option available to the Twins. The free-agent market also offers options like Matt Wieters and Wilson Ramos, and Minnesota could also look to buy low on San Diego’s Derek Norris, who had a down year at the plate but excelled at getting extra strike calls for his pitchers. New York’s Brian McCann is widely known to be available in trades, but the Twins hardly seem to be in a position to take on a significant portion of McCann’s deal and surrender prospects in order to acquire him from the Bronx. Plus, given the team’s MLB-worst finish in 2016, McCann probably wouldn’t be keen on waiving his no-trade clause to approve a deal there.

Catching is merely one area of need for the Twins, but it’s a glaring one that could also benefit their justifiably maligned pitching staff. Minnesota catchers hit just .249/.295/.378 this past season, with the bulk of that offense coming from Suzuki, who is now a free agent. John Ryan Murphy, acquired this time last November with the hope that he could become the team’s long-term option behind the plate, took a massive step back and batted just .146/.193/.220 in 90 MLB plate appearances in addition to a similarly discouraging .236/.286/.323 in 290 Triple-A PAs. Journeyman Juan Centeno posted a respectable .261/.312/.392 line in 192 PAs but comes with little track record and drew very negative marks in most defensive categories.

Jason Castro Reportedly Has Offers From Three AL Clubs

By Steve Adams | November 11, 2016 at 1:13pm CDT

1:13pm: The Twins did meet with Castro’s representation during the GM Meetings this week, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter), though the two sides only discussed “general needs and wants” at the time. Berardino adds that the Twins and Castro agreed to “reconvene” next week.

11:27am: Free-agent catcher Jason Castro is already weighing offers from at least three American League clubs, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link), who also notes that the market for catchers is beginning to heat up. While Passan doesn’t specify which clubs have extended offers to the Stanford product and former No. 10 overall pick, there are multiple clubs in the AL that could certainly use catching help. The Astros are known to want Castro back, while the Angels, White Sox, Orioles, Rays and Twins are among Houston’s AL rivals that could look to pick up some help behind the plate.

Castro, 29, posted a .210/.307/.377 batting line with 11 home runs in 2016 — sub-par production relative to the league-average hitter but right in line with the park-adjusted output of a league-average catcher. While he was an All-Star with Houston in 2013 and looked to have enjoyed a breakout season (.276/.350/.485, 18 home runs, 35 doubles), his bat has regressed quite a bit since that time. While some clubs are undoubtedly tantalized by the upside of Castro once again reaching this height, he’ll play the bulk of next season at age 30, so teams also must be cognizant of the fact that it could simply be an outlier.

If a team were able to find a sufficient platoon partner for Castro and heavily limit his exposure to left-handed pitching, there’s reason to believe that his overall performance would increase. Castro hit .231/.331/.426 and launched 10 of his 11 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2016 but floundered at a .149/.237/.241 clip against fellow lefties. That’s been a trend throughout his career, as evidenced by a .247/.328/.424 slash line when holding the platoon advantage and an ugly .190/.249/.287 line against southpaws.

Though he may not be more than an average bat for a catcher, he does excel when it comes to pitch framing — a trait that is becoming increasingly important to front offices around the game. Castro trailed only Buster Posey and Yasmani Grandal as the best framing catcher in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus, and he’s consistently been among the top framers in each of the past three seasons. He’s seen some fluctuations in terms of halting stolen base attempts, throwing out a career-best 36 percent of potential thieves in 2015 but sandwiching that between a pair of below-average seasons. Overall, he’s prevented 26 percent of the attempts against him in his career — about two percent below the league average in that time.

Though Castro has his flaws, his solid numbers against right-handed pitching and excellent framing skills landed him 29th on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list with a projection of two years and $15MM. I’ll note, however, that I’m among the most bullish on Castro among the MLBTR staff and do think he has a chance at landing a three-year pact.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By Steve Adams | November 11, 2016 at 10:51am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a promising 2015 season that led many to believe the Twins’ lengthy stay in the AL Central cellar had reached its conclusion, nearly everything that could go wrong for Minnesota did in 2016. The Twins lost 103 games, prompting baseball’s most loyal ownership group to move on from GM Terry Ryan along the way. A new front office regime will look to guide the team back to prominence in the AL Central.

Guaranteed Contracts

Joe Mauer, 1B: $46MM through 2018
Phil Hughes, RHP: $39.6MM through 2019
Ervin Santana, RHP: $28MM through 2018 (plus 2019 club option)
Brian Dozier, 2B: $15MM through 2018
Byung Ho Park, 1B/DH: $9.25MM through 2019 (including $500K buyout of 2020 club option)
Glen Perkins, LHP: $7.2MM through 2017 (including $700K buyout of 2018 club option)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Trevor Plouffe (5.162) – $8.2MM
Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Plouffe, Escobar

Free Agents

Kurt Suzuki ($6MM option did not vest)

Other Financial Commitments

Ricky Nolasco: $5MM paid to Angels through 2019 ($4MM for 2018 salary plus $1MM buyout of 2019 option)

Twins depth chart; Twins payroll information

The decision to move on from Terry Ryan was a fairly stunning development for the Twins this summer, as Ryan was one of just three general managers that the notoriously loyal Twins had employed dating back to 1985. Minnesota has been perceived as one of the most traditional organizations in the game, which made the hiring of 33-year-old Derek Falvey as the team’s new top baseball executive a significant departure from the status quo. Joining Falvey will be longtime Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine, who’ll receive a titular promotion to GM but still serve as second in command in his new organization. They’ll be complemented by longtime Twins AGM Rob Antony, who served as interim GM following Ryan’s departure but will return to his previous post following the new hires. At their introductory press conference, Falvey and Levine spoke about building out the club’s analytics department as well as the entire front office staff.

There are any number of issues facing the Twins’ new leadership team, though they won’t need to find a manager, as Paul Molitor will return for his third year on the job at the behest of owner Jim Pohlad. The Twins will be looking for a new hitting coach, though, after firing Tom Brunansky from that role earlier this week.

Beyond that, the first order of business will be to determine whether the club needs to embark on a total reset and further prolong what has already been a lengthy residence in the American League Central cellar (minus a one-year flirtation with a Wild Card spot in 2015). Falvey, perhaps unsurprisingly, didn’t commit to a clear direction during his introduction to the Twin Cities, instead speaking somewhat vaguely about a desire to deliver a “championship-caliber” baseball team, focusing on the long-term health of the organization and keeping an open mind to all scenarios.

Reading between the lines a bit, Falvey did praise the work that the previous regime had done in compiling a nice core of young talent on the position-player side of the spectrum, implying what anyone who has followed the Twins even remotely already knew: the pitching staff is in need of a major overhaul. Outside of Ervin Santana, Minnesota’s rotation is rife with uncertainty.

Former first-round pick Kyle Gibson took a marked step back in 2016 and dealt with shoulder injuries. Phil Hughes underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery this summer and hasn’t looked anywhere close to his 2014 breakout in either of the past two seasons. Hector Santiago was acquired to be an upgrade over Ricky Nolasco, but he regressed immediately upon joining the club and posted a 5.58 ERA in 61 innings with the Twins. Young right-hander Jose Berrios, lauded as a top 25 prospect by most pundits, was shelled for an 8.02 ERA in 58 innings, and sophomore Tyler Duffey followed up a terrific rookie effort with a 6.43 ERA in 133 innings (albeit with considerably more promising peripherals).

In the bullpen, Glen Perkins made just two appearances before a shoulder injury ended his season, while starter-turned-setup-man Trevor May dealt with back problems and turned in a poor season of his own after showing great promise in 2015. Veteran setup man Kevin Jepsen pitched so poorly that the Twins released him. Hard-throwing relief prospects J.T. Chargois and Pat Light (acquired from Boston this summer) both struggled in the Majors. Rookie left-hander Taylor Rogers was a bright spot all year, though he wilted in September.

Whatever course the Twins set this offseason, it’s clear that some rotation additions are needed. The team does have another MLB-ready arm at Triple-A in the form of Adalberto Mejia (acquired from the Giants in the Eduardo Nunez trade), while 2014 first-rounder Tyler Jay and 2013 fourth-rounder Stephen Gonsalves had nice years in the minors. But given the rampant uncertainty that permeates their staff, the Twins need additional innings. It wouldn’t be prudent for Minnesota to ink one of the top starters and allocate tens of millions of dollars at mid-rotation arms as they so frequently did in recent offseasons, so look for lower-cost alternatives. Left-hander Derek Holland saw his option declined by the Rangers and is obviously a very known commodity to new GM Thad Levine, for instance, as is right-hander Colby Lewis (in whom the Twins had interest when he was first returning to MLB from Japan).

If the Twins want to get more creative, they could roll the dice on a Korean starter such as Kwang-hyun Kim or Hyeon-jong Yang, both of whom can be signed without going through the posting process. The Twins did reportedly have interest in Yang when he was posted two winters ago, and the other club that was heavily linked to him was Levine’s Rangers. Both should be affordable targets and could give the team some degree of upside in a thin market. Looking to the ’pen, the Twins are one of many teams reportedly eyeing Greg Holland, and it’d make sense to add a veteran arm or two. There are plenty of options, ranging from Fernando Salas and Joe Blanton to rebound candidates like Daniel Hudson and Shawn Tolleson.

That’s not to suggest, however, that the Twins are going to put together a rotation with an eye toward contending in 2017. If anything, it seems likelier that the team will opportunistically listen to offers on its most attractive short-term pieces. That certainly includes Ervin Santana, who with two years and $28MM remaining on his contract (plus a 2019 option) is an unequivocal bargain in this pitching market. Santana would be one of the market’s top starters were he available this winter, and he could probably earn another three guaranteed years near his current annual rate, so some teams may consider him a bargain.

Second baseman Brian Dozier is a steal for the Twins at $15MM over the next two seasons on the heels of a shocking 42-homer season. The number of teams eyeing second-base upgrades isn’t exactly plentiful, though the Dodgers, Angels and potentially the Mets could make some sense in the event that Dozier becomes available. He’s reportedly already drawing some early trade interest, which doesn’t come as a shock.

Ground-ball machine Brandon Kintzler, who operated as the team’s closer in the final months of the year, may not carry significant value on his own, but he could be packaged with a veteran such as Santana or Dozier to sweeten the deal for any interested parties. He’s projected to earn just $2.2MM next season and posted a 3.15 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 61.9 percent grounder rate in 54 1/3 innings this year.

Elsewhere on the roster, third baseman Trevor Plouffe seems like perhaps the best bet to depart. That determination will likely be made independent of any larger decision about the team’s 2017 direction. Simply put, it’s tough to see how the 31-year-old fits onto the roster moving forward. Miguel Sano is back at third base after a puzzling experiment in right field somewhat predictably didn’t pan out. Joe Mauer is entrenched at first base across the diamond thanks largely to a $23MM salary each year in 2017-18 and a full no-trade clause. Switch-hitting Kennys Vargas and Korean slugger Byung Ho Park are options at DH. Park flopped in his first stateside season, but it’s worth noting that he hit quite well through mid-May (.257/.339/.578, nine homers in 124 PAs) and ultimately had season-ending wrist injury, which could have contributed to his decline.

Plouffe had an injury-shortened year himself but finished with a hot bat and a triple-slash that closely mirrors his 2014-15 production. He’s projected to earn $8.2MM next year, and for a player with a .253/.314/.427 slash and an average of 21 homers per 162 games since Opening Day 2014, that’s neither an outlandish price nor a significant bargain. A team looking for a one-year stopgap at third could plug Plouffe into the mix before he hits free agency next winter, though the return in a trade wouldn’t be especially overwhelming.

This outlook has been quite a bit of doom and gloom thus far, but the Twins do have reason for optimism, as Falvey alluded to during his intro. Byron Buxton’s overall 2016 season wasn’t impressive, but he hit .287/.357/.653 with nine homers in a ridiculously productive September. While he still whiffed in a third of his plate appearances, he also walked at an improved 8.9 percent clip. Clearly it’s a small sample, but the former No. 1 overall prospect is still just 22, and his first extended taste of big league success is heartening.

Likewise, Miguel Sano hit 25 homers in just 495 plate appearances, lending some credence to the belief that he could eventually be a 40-homer bat. He still needs to curtail his own alarming strikeout habit, and the right field experiment probably set him back a ways at third base, but his arm should play there. Heralded outfield prospect Max Kepler emerged and held his own in right field even when accounting for an icy slump in September. The German 23-year-old showed more power than most projected, belting 17 homers in 447 PAs while slashing .235/.309/.424.

On the other side of the outfield, 25-year-old Eddie Rosario began his sophomore season so poorly that he found himself demoted to Triple-A in May. He hit .305/.335/.477 upon his recall, which seems like enough for redemption, but he’s in severe need of an improved approach at the plate, having walked in just three percent of his career plate appearances against a 25 percent strikeout rate. The blend of pop, speed and athleticism in the outfield is tantalizing, so perhaps a new hitting coach can help him make adjustments. Looking to the infield, it’s not entirely clear where 23-year-old Jorge Polanco will settle in on the diamond, but the young switch-hitter’s bat was impressive (.282/.332/.424). He has the inside track on the shortstop gig next year but could also play third or more likely second base as well, depending on Minnesota’s other moves.

Outside of the glaring need for rotation and bullpen help, there are still areas that the Twins will look to improve in 2017 even if a more long-term approach is taken this winter. Last year’s trade for John Ryan Murphy didn’t yield the results that the Twins hoped, and with Kurt Suzuki now a free agent, they’ll need to add help behind the plate. Some in the Twins’ clubhouse would probably like to see Suzuki re-signed, but Falvey’s Indians showed little to no interest in him after Yan Gomes’ injury this summer due to his poor defense. Matt Wieters and old friend Wilson Ramos are both free agents, but both are probably going to cost more than the Twins would care to spend.

Pitch-framing was a point of emphasis while Falvey was in Cleveland, and Jason Castro stands out as a reasonably priced addition that excels in that regard. He’s never been able to replicate his All-Star 2013 season at the plate, but Castro’s left-handed bat fares well enough against right-handed pitching and could be paired with Murphy’s right-handed bat. The Twins have another right-handed option in former ninth-rounder Mitch Garver, who had a strong year between Double-A and Triple-A (.270/.342/.422). Trades could also be possible — buying low on Derek Norris, for instance — but the addition of a strong defender behind the plate seems likely one way or another, as it’s a quick way to help improve the results of a league-worst pitching staff.

The bench could be an area of focus, as well. Both Falvey and Levine have spoken about wanting to add a veteran or two that can provide some leadership, and a fourth outfielder that would serve as an upgrade over Robbie Grossman could fit the bill. Grossman hit quite well in his first year with the Twins (.280/.386/.443), but his glove was among the worst in all of baseball (-21 DRS, -16 UZR) and he’s limited to the corners. Rosario’s ability to cover center field in a pinch allows the Twins to have a fourth outfielder that isn’t necessarily a center fielder, but a defensive upgrade would be another means of helping to induce better results from the pitching staff. Jon Jay or Rajai Davis could fit that bill and could take on a larger role if any of the incumbent young outfielders stumble.

Elsewhere on the bench, the Twins will need to determine if their preference is to stick with the duo of Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana or move on from one or both. Escobar is coming off a terrible season and is projected to earn $2.9MM, but he was worth a total of three to four wins from 2014-15 and can play three infield positions plus left field. Santana, meanwhile, is out of minor league options and hasn’t hit at all since his BABIP-fueled rookie season in 2014. With the backup catcher, one of Park or Vargas and a fourth outfielder (either Grossman or a new acquisition) occupying three of the four bench slots, there’s probably only room for one of the two, unless the club once again utilizes Santana as a backup center fielder.

Despite finishing with MLB’s worst record in 2016, the new Twins’ front office may feel enough pieces are in place that a total tear-down isn’t necessary. (Indeed, a GM recently opined to FOX’s Ken Rosenthal that there isn’t one team in full rebuild mode this winter.) The previous regime left enough talent pieces on the position-player side of the equation (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco) that it’s possible to see the core of a contending team among the group. Now, Falvey and Levine will be tasked with acquiring the same type of group on the pitching side of things. A return to contention in 2017 doesn’t look especially likely unless they receive as much good fortune next year as they did bad fortune in 2016, but with the right pitching pickups the 2018 campaign could be a good one for the Twins.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Rumors: Dozier, Ervin, Bullpen, Perkins

By Steve Adams | November 10, 2016 at 8:59pm CDT

Twins second baseman Brian Dozier drew trade interest from multiple teams at this week’s GM Meetings, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. That’s hardly a surprise, considering Dozier finished the season with 42 home runs on a last-place team and is controlled cheaply ($15MM total) for two more seasons. While many rightly tout Dozier’s preposterous second half — he hit 28 home runs and slashed .291/.344/.646 in 72 games following the All-Star break — the 29-year-old has somewhat quietly been playing at a high level for quite some time, averaging 3.5 fWAR and 3.7 rWAR per season from 2013-15. The St. Paul Pioneer Press’ Mike Berardino noted earlier this week that the lack of teams with obvious holes at second base might make it difficult for new Twins CBO Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine to extract maximum value in a Dozier trade, but it’s still not a shock to see some teams kick the tires.

A few more notes on the Twins…

Berardino spoke to Falvey and Levine about the likely trade interest that the Twins will receive in right-hander Ervin Santana this winter, and the new Minnesota front office duo didn’t sound especially anxious to move him. “I think we look at him as the anchor of our starting rotation and certainly something we want to build around,” said Levine of Santana, who is owed $28MM over the next two seasons and has a club option for 2019 on his contract as well. “…We think (Santana) is one of the most attractive pitchers that could be in consideration, but we view him as the No. 1 starter on our team. That’s an area we’re trying to build, not subtract from.” Berardino spoke to execs from other teams that said the Twins haven’t been aggressively marketing Santana in trades.
Also via Berardino (Twitter links), the Twins met with agent Casey Close of Excel Sports Management this week and discussed several of Excel’s free agents, including Joba Chamberlain and possibly fellow right-handed relievers Joe Smith and Shawn Tolleson. Both Chamberlain and Smith pitched with the Indians while Falvey was a member of the team’s front office, and Levine of course is quite familiar with Tolleson, who spent the past three seasons with the Rangers. The Twins are almost certainly casting a wide net when looking at free-agent relievers, so it’s probably early to read too heavily into that trio of relievers. As can be seen in MLBTR’s Agency Database, Excel also reps free agents Alex Avila, Aaron Barrett, Jerry Blevins, Aaron Crow and Brian Matusz. Additionally, Dexter Fowler, Neil Walker, Steve Pearce and Colby Rasmus are all Excel clients, too, although there’s less of a fit in Minnesota for that group.
Twins closer Glen Perkins, who made just two appearances this season before hitting the disabled list and eventually requiring shoulder surgery, is about four and a half months through what is expected to be a nine-month rehab process, the left-hander tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Perkins tried to rehab the injury for three months before ultimately going under the knife and having screws inserted into the labrum of his left shoulder. Perkins conceded that given his age (34 in March) and the severity of the surgery, he’s not sure if he’ll recover all of his velocity, but he expects to be competitive next year and hopes to remain with the Twins beyond his current contract. (Perkins is set to earn $6.5MM next year and has a $6.5MM option for the 2018 season.) “I see myself being a part of this organization for a lot longer than my contract,” he said.
Also of note from Miller’s column, assistant GM Rob Antony offered praise for the job that right-hander Brandon Kintzler, who inked a minor league deal with the Twins last winter, did upon stepping into the ninth inning out of necessity in 2016. However, Antony suggested that the organization isn’t necessarily expecting Kintzler to reprise that role in 2017. “I’m not sure we see him as a closer,” said Antony, who also acted as the interim GM prior to the hiring of Falvey and Levine. “I don’t think we’ve penciled in anybody.” That would suggest that the Twins could potentially lure a bullpen arm to Minnesota by offering a chance to compete with Perkins and Kintzler for the ninth-inning job.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/9/16

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2016 at 2:51pm CDT

Time to catch up on some recent 40-man roster moves:

The Brewers outrighted righties Yhonathan Barrios and Ben Rowen as well as catcher Josmil Pinto, per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and Adam McCalvy. Barrios cracked the bigs briefly in 2015 but missed all of 2016 with shoulder issues. The 27-year-old Rowen has minimal major league experience, but did put up a strong 2.33 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 58 minor league frames last year. As for Pinto, who’s also 27, he’s still waiting for another shot at the majors. His .308/.362/.517 batting line over 315 plate appearances could warrant interest.
Recently-claimed lefty Jed Bradley has been shipped to Triple-A and off of the Orioles’ 40-man, the team announced. Plucked from the Braves, where he briefly debuted last year, Bradley will be a useful stashed arm if a need arises.
The Indians announce that catcher Adam Moore was outrighted. He has one of the more interesting Baseball-Reference pages you’ll ever see. Since receiving significant time in 2010 with the Mariners, he has bounced around quite a bit but managed to appear in the majors in every seasons since. Yet Moore has accumulated just fifty total MLB plate appearances in that six-year span. He’ll surely land as a depth piece somewhere, if he doesn’t return to Cleveland.
Righty Dustin Molleken elected free agency after being outrighted by the Tigers. The 32-year-old finally reached the majors in 2016, allowing four earned runs on 12 hits and five walks against eight strikeouts over his 8 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he has spent the last five years pitching in Japan or the highest level of the minors.
The Twins outrighted right-hander Alex Wimmers, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweets. Wimmers threw his first 17 1/3 major league innings last year, putting up a 4.15 ERA with 14 strikeouts and 11 walks. In his 56 2/3 Triple-A frames on the year, he worked to a 3.97 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9.
The Dodgers dropped righty Chin-hui Tsao from their 40-man roster, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets. Now 35, Tsao has made just seven appearances over the last two seasons. All of his prior major league action came between 2003 and 2007.
Catcher A.J. Jimenez had his contract selected by the Blue Jays, per a club announcement. He had been removed from the 40-man last spring, but will now be added to prevent him from departing as a minor league free agent. Jimenez has been in Toronto’s system since 2008, but has yet to reach the majors. he posted a .241/.290/.377 batting line over 248 plate appearances at Triple-A last year.
The Giants added righty Ian Gardeck to their 40-man roster, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He missed all of last year due to Tommy John surgery. Gardeck’s most recent showing came at the High-A level in 2015, when he pitched to a 3.54 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 86 1/3 innings.

AL Central Notes: Castro, Twins, Dozier, Miller, Morales

By Jeff Todd | November 8, 2016 at 11:09pm CDT

There was plenty of news on the baseball front today as the GM Meetings got the offseason going in earnest. If you’re interested in learning about the top free agents available, be sure to check out MLBTR’s annual ranking of the top fifty — with salary and signing predictions. And for those who’ve already given that a look, give a listen to the recent edition of The Ringer’s “The MLB Show” podcast with Ben Lindbergh and Michael Baumann, in which MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes joined to break down the coming hot stove season.

Here’s the latest from the AL Central:

The Twins have expressed interest in catcher Jason Castro as the offseason gets underway, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Minnesota’s new-look front office will sit down with Castro’s representatives tomorrow at the GM Meetings, per the report. The 29-year-old Castro is a well-regarded pitch framer who delivers some power from the left side, though his limited on-base ability saps much of his offensive value. There figure to be quite a few teams with interest in the veteran backstop, as a number of organizations will be looking to shore up their mix behind the plate.
As the Twins seek to build around a core of young talent that is largely already in place, the organization hopes to find some veteran pieces to supplement that group, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. Levine spoke of the need for “clubhouse ambassadors,” explaining that elder statesmen help get the best out of a team’s in-prime players. Precisely how this interest will be manifested in the team’s offseason plans remains to be seen, and major splashes can probably be ruled out, but it seems that Minnesota could look to supplement its roster via free agency.
While Brian Dozier represents an excellent trade chip for the Twins, at least in theory, Berardino explains that it may not be as easy to achieve value for him as might be expected. Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine both discussed the team’s best player in 2016, noting that despite his monster season, the second base position is well-stocked leaguewide. While there would certainly be interest in a player who Levine says is viewed “with a ton of respect” by the incoming brass, the Twins may not have an opportunity to start a bidding war for his services in hopes of finding an overwhelming return.
The Indians did not acquire ace reliever Andrew Miller with thoughts of flipping him this winter, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said today, and the team doesn’t intend to change that approach now. (Via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, on Twitter.) Miller’s exploits are well-documented, and his market value already evident in the price that Cleveland paid to acquire him. While it is surely tempting for the team to consider seeking to recoup some of its investment to fill other needs, it seems that it will instead continue to deploy Miller as a high-leverage force.
Unsurprisingly, Royals GM Dayton Moore said today that his club isn’t likely to do much of significance on the open market, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reports. “I don’t look for us to be real aggressive with free agents,” he said. “Just because we’re not going to be in a position to add significant payroll — if any, at all, at this point.” Still, the team is interested in pursuing a reunion with Kendrys Morales after passing on a chance to make him a qualifying offer. That seems unlikely unless his market fails to develop — or if the team finds a way to make the salary fit.

Notes On Greg Holland’s Showcase

By Jeff Todd | November 8, 2016 at 8:54am CDT

Free agent righty Greg Holland took the hill for scouts yesterday as he sets the stage for his return to action. The former Royals closer missed all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he’ll play an interesting role in the market with multiple big-payroll clubs among those seeking power arms at the back of their respective bullpens. Despite the long injury layoff, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rates Holland 23rd in earning power among free agents, noting that a wide variety of organizations could pursue him. Joel Sherman of the New York Post covered the showcase, and we’ve also heard additional reports about which teams were represented.

Here’s the latest:

The most important aspect of the appearance was Holland’s health, and Sherman writes that scouts came away feeling optimistic in that regard after seeing 35 pitches. Though the typically fireballing righty sat in the 89 to 90 mph range with his fastball, he’s obviously still building up arm strength. One scout explained that Holland worked with “good extension” in showing off his heater and ballyhooed slider, suggesting he’s ready to continue working back to his prior form.
Agent Scott Boras argued that his client, who’ll soon turn 31, represents a great value for teams unwilling or unable to sign top closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon. He predicted a multi-year deal, with a two-year arrangement laden with incentives possibly making sense for all involved. It remains to be seen just how much cash teams will be willing to promise Holland, who had faltered in 2015 while pitching through the elbow problems that ultimately resulted in surgery. But the upside is undeniable: from 2011 through 2014, he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
All told, about sixty scouts were on hand to watch, says Sherman, with about 18 clubs putting eyes on the righty. We had previously heard that the Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, and Yankees would be joined by the Twins in attendance. Sherman notes that GM Bobby Evans and a top scouting exec were on hand for the closing-needy Giants, with the Yankees also sending top talent evaluators. He also lists the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Phillies as organizations that sent reps. The Royals, too, were watching their former hurler, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets, as were the division-rival Tigers, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link). And the two top NL East clubs — the Nationals and Mets — were also intrigued enough to send scouts, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter) and ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin.

Twins Introduce Derek Falvey, Thad Levine

By Brandon Warne | November 7, 2016 at 9:20pm CDT

It’s been an uncharacteristically jarring few months for the Twins organization. In the midst of just the second 100-loss season in the post-D.C. history of the franchise, the Twins parted ways with longtime executive Terry Ryan, breaking with their usual pattern of organizational continuity. Months later, they officially have two key new executives in place, and on Monday, they introduced their new hires, Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine, to the Minnesota media.

The Twins’ reputation for loyalty is a big reason why jobs with the organization are coveted in the industry, Levine said at today’s press conference. “People all over the game would like to work for the Twins,” Levine said. “But part of that loyalty from ownership means that it’s perceived as a difficult organization to get into as well.”

Twins CEO Jim Pohlad admitted to having virtually nothing to do with the Levine hire. “I had not met Thad until last night,” Pohlad said. “It was Derek’s entire decision to hire Thad, and we couldn’t be happier.” Pohlad added that he wouldn’t stand in the way of Falvey’s need to add resources to beef up the team’s analytics department, which currently is a three-person operation.

Falvey and Levine, along with as longtime assistant GM Rob Antony, will head out Monday evening to the general manager’s meetings in Arizona. If that seems a bit sudden, it’s because it is. The Twins had to wait to formalize hiring Falvey until his Indians were eliminated from the playoffs, per a handshake agreement between the two clubs. When that took seven games — plus a rain delay — to materialize, it meant the timing would naturally be a bit hurried.

Falvey said he wasn’t too worried about that, even if it would be a bit of a crash course over the next few days up to and after free agency formally opens on Tuesday. In his mind, it’s going to be good for the three minds to converge upon the offseason together, as he can bring the best of his information from the Indians organization, Levine the same from the Rangers and Antony from the Twins to blend it all into what ends up being their offseason path.

Falvey joins the Twins from the Indians organization, where he was third in command behind team president Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff. Falvey joined the Indians in November 2007, and ascended quickly before settling in for the last year as the assistant general manager.

Levine joins the Twins from the Rangers organization, where he’d spent more than a decade working under current GM Jon Daniels. Levine started in baseball with a brief stint with the Dodgers before joining the Rockies full-time in 1999, ultimately becoming Senior Director of Baseball Operations.

There’s no question addressing the pitching staff will be paramount to whatever path Falvey and Levine take this offseason, and they’re keenly aware of it. The Twins ranked last in starting pitching ERA (5.39), and the bullpen wasn’t much better (4.63, 26th). With little in the way of MLB-ready pitching in the pipeline (considering the struggles of Jose Berrios and the relative lack of certainty with Stephen Gonsalves and Kohl Stewart), Falvey said he’s aware the team is going to have to get creative in supplementing the pitching staff.

“With pitching, I think you want to explore every avenue and opportunity to add talent,” Falvey said. “Whether that’s being opportunistic in the free agent market, or through trades, or through unique development philosophies, which I think are things that we will apply moving forward, there’s no one way to attack that. This year’s free agent market is a little lean on the pitching side, so I think we have to explore every opportunity that we have to develop the players we have internally, and figure out what it is that we need to do to develop the strengths into useful pieces at the major league level.”

Part of working on the pitching staff will be evaluating players in-house to determine what assets the club has to move around to acquire pitching in addition to what it might find on the market. Falvey wasn’t prepared to go down that road mere minutes into his tenure, but he did suggest the team would search high and low, internally and externally, to revamp the club’s woebegone pitching staff.

“I think we’ll spend time over the next week in Arizona to dig in and talk to other teams about needs and fits and what the landscape looks like for this offseason,” Falvey said. “We will commit to being collaborative in our approach to pitching development. It’s something I feel very strongly about. Utilizing different resources to help us develop the current pitchers that are on the staff and the players coming up through the minor leagues. We wouldn’t shut out any avenue to acquire or develop a player, and I expect that will be a slight change from how we’ve operated here, but I look forward to leading that.”

Falvey’s vision isn’t limited to the pitching side, though it can be easy to focus on that part. Not only are the Twins coming off an incredible run of subpar pitching — including carrying an MLB-worst K/9 every year from 2011-15 — but the Indians are coming off the seventh-best ERA in baseball. Beyond that, the Indians found some of their best pitchers in unlikely places. Corey Kluber came in the Jake Westbrook trade and was far from an instant success. The same can be said of Carlos Carrasco, who came over in the Cliff Lee deal with the Phillies and needed multiple years and even a stint in the bullpen to find his way. Mike Clevinger, who is one of the team’s more promising young pitchers, arrived in a deal for a broken-down Vinnie Pestano. That sort of resourcefulness, if Falvey can duplicate it in Minnesota, will only serve to make the search for pitching more interesting for Twins fans.

“The goal here is straightforward and measurable,” Falvey said. “It’s to build a sustainable and championship-caliber team and organization that Twins fans across Twins Territory will be proud of. Thad and I know there are no shortcuts to getting there. We intend to relentlessly identify, pursue and advance top-performing people, cultivate world-class process and build a culture that’s collaborative and transparent to achieve our goals.”

Falvey didn’t stop there, as he promised wide-sweeping changes to the “Twins Way,” which is such a key phrase that the organization made it the address when they opened Target Field at “1 Twins Way” in downtown Minneapolis.

“The Twins Way will be to thrive together,” Falvey promised at the outset of the conference. “That’s important to me. Both Thad and I have grown and experienced a measure of success within organizational cultures that understand the value in creating balanced systems, designing, implementing and evaluating processes and rewarding hard work and professional character, both on and off the field. We will root our decision making in evidence-based practices, both subjective and objective in nature, which means a commitment to understanding the metrics, but always making human decisions. That will never change. There is no substitute for the people and the input from our senior leadership group.”

AL Central Notes: Holland, Twins, White Sox, Hahn, Tigers

By Mark Polishuk | November 6, 2016 at 11:46am CDT

Here’s the latest from around the AL Central…

The Twins will have representatives at Greg Holland’s showcase tomorrow, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link). The Giants, Rangers, Yankees and Red Sox will also have scouts on hand at Holland’s showcase, while the Royals are also known to have interest in a reunion with their former closer and will probably also have personnel on hand. Holland missed all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he is already drawing a lot of attention from both contenders and rebuilding clubs like Minnesota as an intriguing bounce-back candidate.
The Twins are expected to heavily expand the baseball operations department under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. Minnesota had just 15 people working in baseball ops last year, as per the team’s press guide, while other teams had almost twice as many personnel working in a wide variety of roles. As you might expect given Falvey and Levine’s background with modern statistical analysis, the Twins’ analytics department is expected to receive particular attention.
“White Sox GM Rick Hahn is open for business on just about his entire roster,” more than one general manager tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted in his recent Offseason Outlook piece about the Sox, the looming question over Chicago’s winter plans is whether the team intends to rebuild or try to contend in 2017, and Cafardo’s news would seem to hint at the former.
With the Tigers looking to curb their free-spending ways, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards explores the possibility of the team dealing Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in a single blockbuster trade. This would allow the Tigers to reload on both payroll space and prospects for a quick return to contention by as soon as 2018. Assuming Verlander is willing to waive his no-trade protection, he’d get a lot of attention from other teams even with his big price tag ($84MM through 2019 and a $22MM vesting option for 2020) since starting pitching is so scarce this winter. As for Cabrera, who is coming off another tremendous season and is owed $220MM through 2023, Edwards writes that “the length of his contract means his trade value will never be higher than it is right now. Indeed, as soon as next season, he might be untradeable.” It’s a short list, of course, of teams that could afford to absorb Verlander and Cabrera’s deals even if Detroit kicked in some money; Edwards suggests that the Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers or Yankees could be fits.

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