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Twins Notes: Correa, Martin, Duran, Sands

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The Twins announced Monday that they’ve reinstated shortstop Carlos Correa from the 10-day injured list. Infielder/outfielder Austin Martin was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move. Correa wound up missing just over two weeks with what was originally announced a a likely oblique strain but was reclassified as a more mild intercostal strain after he underwent an MRI.

It’s a boon for an already-surging Twins lineup that has rattled off seven straight wins. Strength of schedule has been a big part of that, as the Twins are coming off sweeps of the White Sox and Angels (and are now in Chicago for another three-game set against the South Siders). Correa hit .306/.432/.444 with a homer and two doubles in 44 trips to the plate before sustaining the injury. He’ll reclaim his everyday shortstop role and a slot near the heart of the Twins’ batting order.

Correa’s return brings an end to the first big league stint for the 25-year-old Martin, who handled himself well for a couple weeks before falling into a 3-for-21 slump that dragged his batting line down to .226/.294/.371. The former No. 5 overall pick showed strong contact skills (17.6% strikeout rate) and defensive versatility with time at each of second base, left field and center field.

Martin is in the first of three option years and figures to be back in the big leagues before too long. He’s outplayed struggling veterans Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot, but both have lengthy track records that will earn them some more leash to right the ship. Jettisoning either instead of Martin would surely have depleted the organization’s depth, as both could reject minor league assignments and become free agents once their contracts cleared waivers.

Correa isn’t the only key piece expected to return to the Twins before long. Closer Jhoan Duran has made a pair of rehab outings in St. Paul and was sharp in his most recent one. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that Minnesota’s flamethrowing righty tossed a clean inning with two strikeouts and induced whiffs on six of eight swings against him Saturday, topping out at 102.9 mph with his heater.

Duran, 26, has established himself as one of the game’s premier relievers since debuting in 2022. He’s been on the injured list all season due to an oblique strain but touts a 2.15 ERA 33.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 63.4% ground-ball rate in 130 big league innings. He’s saved 35 games for the Twins and picked up another 19 holds since cracking the Opening Day roster as a rookie back in ’22.

Duran’s return will only strengthen a Minnesota bullpen that ranks third in MLB with a 2.62 earned run average. Twins relievers are also second in strikeout rate at 29.8%, 12th in walk rate at 9.2%, fourth in FIP at 3.40 and second in SIERA at 2.98. Former starter Cole Sands has been a big part of that, turning in 13 1/3 innings (second among Twins relievers) with a 1.35 ERA, 36.5% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate.

It’s an incredible turnaround for Sands, who entered the year with a 4.99 ERA in 52 1/3 big league frames. He’s seen his average fastball climb from 93.7 mph last year to 95 mph in 2024, and his newly implemented cutter has been excellent. Opponents don’t yet have a hit against Sands’ four-seamer this season.

Sands’ success, history as a starter and the current state of the rotation — Anthony DeSclafani out for the season, Louie Varland optioned to Triple-A after struggling — prompted Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic to ask president of baseball ops Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli about the possibility of stretching Sands back out as a starter. Neither wholly discounted the possibility, though Falvey noted how well Sands has been pitching in a relief capacity and emphasized that if things reach that point, the Twins will need to “do it thoughtfully” because midseason role changes can be particularly tricky.

As things stand, the Twins are going with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and rookie Simeon Woods Richardson in the rotation. Ober and Paddack have each had one nightmare start where they were tagged for eight runs but have been otherwise sharp. Woods Richardson has made just two starts but flashed improved velocity while holding the Tigers and White Sox to a combined three runs in 11 innings with an 11-to-2 K/BB ratio.

The Twins are without DeSclafani and minor league lefty Brent Headrick, their likely next man up on the rotation depth chart, as he’s on the minor league 60-day IL due to a forearm strain. Further injuries could push them to more strongly consider a starting role for Sands, but Minnesota could also look outside the organization at some point if the depth continues to be tested. Falvey downplayed that possibility to Gleeman, but it’s worth mentioning that the Twins went that route with Dallas Keuchel last year and wound up getting six starts out of him down the stretch.

Twins Sign Nick Wittgren To Minor League Contract

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The Twins signed veteran reliever Nick Wittgren to a minor league deal. The contract was announced by their Double-A team in Wichita, where the righty will begin his time in the organization.

That Wittgren is headed to Double-A suggests he’s not on the radar for an MLB call in the near future. He has plenty of big league experience, though, having tallied 329 1/3 innings over eight seasons. The 32-year-old righty was in the majors as recently as last year, throwing 29 innings of 4.97 ERA ball for the Royals. It was the third straight season in which his ERA hovered around 5.00.

Going back to the start of 2021, Wittgren carries a 5.24 earned run average in 120 1/3 frames. He was a solid middle relief option for Miami and Cleveland in the three preceding seasons, though. Between 2018-20, he fanned nearly a quarter of batters faced while working to a 2.97 ERA in 112 appearances. Wittgren’s strikeout rate has plummeted in the last couple years, but he throws plenty of strikes and hasn’t required an injured list stay since 2018.

The bullpen has been a strength despite Minnesota’s pedestrian 11-13 start. Their relievers entered play Friday ranked fourth in MLB with a 2.60 ERA. Twins relievers have punched out 30% of opposing hitters, the highest rate in the majors. The group should only improve in the coming weeks as they welcome back two high-leverage arms from injury. Star closer Jhoan Duran (oblique strain) and offseason pickup Justin Topa (knee tendinitis) have been on the IL all season. They’re each on minor league rehab stints and could return before the end of the month.

Twins Notes: Woods Richardson, Varland, Headrick, Lee

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The Twins optioned right-hander Louie Varland to Triple-A St. Paul yesterday, creating a vacancy in the rotation in the process. That spot will be filled by right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, noting that manager Rocco Baldelli confirmed as much following yesterday’s moves. Woods Richardson will take the ball Friday in Anaheim.

It took longer than the team might’ve hoped, but adding the 23-year-old Woods Richardson to the rotation means the Twins will now have both prospects they acquired from the Blue Jays in exchange for Jose Berrios contributing on the big league club. Woods Richardson already tossed six innings of one-run ball in a spot start against the Tigers earlier this year and showed a notable velocity uptick (93.4 mph average, up from 91 mph in two spot starts in 2022-23). Meanwhile, infielder/outfielder Austin Martin has hit .244/.292/.400 through his first 48 MLB plate appearances this season. The former No. 5 overall pick has homered, hit four doubles and fanned only seven times (14.5%) early in his MLB tenure.

Varland, a St. Paul native, was expected to enter spring training in a competition with veteran Anthony DeSclafani that would determine who won the team’s fifth starter job. Instead, DeSclafani required season-ending surgery to repair his flexor tendon, effectively giving Varland the five spot by default.

Varland entered the season with a career 4.40 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in 94 big league innings, so the former top prospect was hardly unqualified for the job. However, Varland’s previously plus command has evaporated in the early stages of the season. He walked 10.3% of his opponents and was also missing frequently within the zone, evidenced by a lack of missed bats (a paltry 7.6% swinging-strike rate) and a glaring six homers in 16 2/3 frames (3.24 HR/9). He’ll continue to work as a starter with the Saints for the time being and could be an option if he gets back on track and/or an injury occurs elsewhere in the rotation.

The rotation depth took a further hit when lefty Brent Headrick was transferred from the 7-day IL in Triple-A to the 60-day IL just yesterday. Headrick, who made his MLB debut last season, recently suffered a forearm strain. It appears the injury is significant enough that he’ll be sidelined for multiple months. The lefty posted a combined 3.32 ERA in 108 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A in 2022 before turning in a 4.68 ERA in 75 Triple-A frames last year. His first taste of the big leagues produced a grisly 6.31 ERA in 25 2/3 innings, though that came in a long relief setting and a disproportionate amount of the damage came in one nightmare outing where he allowed five runs to the Red Sox and only completed one inning.

Headrick’s injury isn’t the only minor league injury of note for the Twins, though. Infielder Brooks Lee, the No. 8 overall pick in 2022 who’s widely considered to be one of the game’s 25 to 50 best prospects, has been out all season with a lower back strain. Triple-A skipper Toby Gardenhire said early in the season that the hope was Lee would only be down three to four weeks, but Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic now reports it’ll be a much lengthier absence.

Per Gleeman, Lee has been diagnosed with a herniated disc in his lower back. He’s working with renowned spinal specialist Dr. Robert Watkins but is only about three weeks into what’ll now be a two-month rehab plan. That’ll take Lee out of consideration for any near-term promotion. For a Twins team that’s currently without Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa, it’s a notable blow.

The 23-year-old Lee is generally viewed as near MLB-ready. He struggled in his first taste of Triple-A in the second half of the 2023 season but produced a stout .292/.365/.476 slash in 399 Double-A plate appearances. Lee walked at a 10.3% clip against just a 15.8% strikeout rate in Double-A while also popping 11 homers and 31 doubles. He’s played shortstop almost exclusively in the minors, and if Lee were healthy, he’d likely have been an option to replace either Lewis or Correa by this point in the season.

Once healthy, Lee could emerge as the Twins’ long-term option at second base, with Edouard Julien sliding over to first base — or Lee could simply oscillate between multiple positions in a super-utility role that provides him regular at-bats. For now, the focus will simply be on rehabbing his back with an eye toward a return this summer.

Twins Option Louie Varland, Select Ronny Henriquez

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The Twins announced a series of moves today, activating outfielder Max Kepler from the injured list and selecting the contract of right-hander Ronny Henriquez. Those two will take the roster spots of right-hander Louie Varland and catcher Jair Camargo, who have been optioned. Right-hander Daniel Duarte was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Henriquez.

The Minnesota rotation has shifted quite a bit since last year, as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all reached free agency after the 2023 season. Mahle was already out of the picture after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of last year, but the departures of Gray and Maeda left big holes relative to late last year.

The club acquired Anthony DeSclafani in the winter to take one rotation spot and it was hoped the remaining innings could be taken up by a healthy Chris Paddack or continued development from Varland. Unfortunately, none of three plans have worked for the Twins thus far. DeSclafani required flexor tendon surgery last month, which will keep him on the injured list for the entire year. Meanwhile, Paddack has an earned run average of 8.36 so far this year while Varland is even higher at 9.18.

The Twins’ faith in Varland wasn’t totally without merit, as he showed some encouraging signs last year. He tossed 68 innings for the big league club, striking out 25.1% of batters faced while walking just 6%. His ERA was up at 4.63 thanks to allowing 16 home runs, a 21.1% rate of fly balls leaving the yard. That was about double league average, which is part of the reason why his 3.77 SIERA was almost a full run lower than his ERA. He also had a 3.97 ERA in his Triple-A work last year.

Here in 2024, he’s already allowed six homers in just 16 2/3 innings, a massive 35.3% rate. That would naturally regress going forward, which is why his 4.30 SIERA this year is less than half of his ERA, but that doesn’t entirely wave away his results so far this season. Varland’s strikeout rate has dropped to 20.7% and his walk rate to 10.3%, both significantly worse than last year. After yesterday’s start, where Varland didn’t make it through the third inning, manager Rocco Baldelli was noncommittal about Varland sticking in the rotation.

“We have a whole lot of things we have to talk about,” Baldelli said, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. “We have to have really almost anything on the table right now to find a way to improve.” He also said: “We’re going to have to be open to making roster moves and finding new ways to use players and figure some things out.”

Those rotation struggles have played a big part in the Twins limping out of the gate this year. The defending division champions are currently 7-13, putting them in a distant fourth place in the early going. They will obviously have to get the group in better shape as the season rolls along to get back in contention, and that starts with giving Varland a breather in the minors.

He’ll head to Triple-A and look to get himself back in good form. The length of his optional assignment could potentially impact him from a service time perspective, depending on when he comes back and for how long. He came into this season with 108 days of service time, meaning he needs to accrue 64 days this year to get to 172 and hit the one-year mark.

The Twins could have Paddack, Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober throw the next four games but will need someone to retake Varland’s spot by Friday at the latest. It’s possible that will be Simeon Woods Richardson, who came up to start one game of the club’s doubleheader on April 13. Brent Headrick and Matt Canterino are also on the 40-man roster but the former is on the IL with a forearm strain and the latter has been dealing with a rotator cuff strain and hasn’t pitched in the minors yet this year.

For now, Henriquez takes a spot on the roster and could give the club a multi-inning option out of the bullpen. He has thrown 13 1/3 Triple-A innings over seven appearances so far this year with a 4.05 ERA, striking out 14 opponents while giving out just two walks.

He has 11 2/3 innings of major league experience, which came with the Twins in 2022, but he struggled in the minors last year and was non-tendered. The Twins re-signed him to a minor league deal and he’ll now rejoin the roster, giving a fresh arm to a bullpen that had to cover a lot of innings after Varland’s poor start yesterday. Henriquez still has an option and can be sent back down to Triple-A at a later date without having to be exposed to waivers.

As for Duarte, it was reported over the weekend that he would require season-ending elbow surgery, so his move to the 60-day IL was an inevitability.

Twins Notes: Lewis, Duran, Kepler

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Twins fans received a positive update regarding injured third baseman Royce Lewis today with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noting that, per Minnesota head trainer Nick Paparesta, Lewis has resumed baseball activity and is “headed in the right direction,” with the start of a run progression on the horizon late next week.

It’s great news for the soon to be 25-year-old, who suffered what was termed a “severe” quad strain on Opening Day. Long regarded as one of the most exciting young talents in baseball, the first overall pick of the 2017 draft has done nothing but hit throughout his major league career with a .313/.369/.564 slash line since he made his debut back in 2022. That’s good for a sensational wRC+ of 159, but Lewis has been limited to just 71 games in the big leagues to this point in his career by a myriad of injuries, including torn ACLs in both 2021 and 2022.

While its easy to be pessimistic about Lewis’s health given his lengthy injury history, the fact that he’s already resumed baseball activities is heartening news given the fact that Lewis was initially expected to be shut down for an entire month before being re-evaluated. That would seemingly put him more than a week ahead of schedule, making a return as soon as sometime in the middle of next month a realistic target for the youngster.

Adding Lewis’s bat back to the lineup would surely provide a huge boost for Minnesota, as the club has scuffled to a 7-12 record in the early going this season while posting a collective wRC+ of just 78, good for bottom three in the majors. If Lewis were to return and take over some of the at-bats currently being offered to struggling veterans Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro, it could help transform the lineup and provide a spark to a team that’s already seven games back of the red hot Guardians for the AL Central crown early in the 2024 campaign.

Lewis isn’t the only key Twins player who could be gearing up for a return in the near future, however. Gleeman also notes that closer Jhoan Duran continued his rehab from an oblique strain with a 21-pitch session against live hitters yesterday. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Gleeman) following the session that Duran looked like he was “just about ready” to face hitters in real games. Gleeman went on to add that Duran is expected to be cleared for a rehab assignment in the near future, and that the righty flamethrower could return to the big league club before the end of April despite initial concerns that he would be sidelined into next month.

Should Duran return to the big league club in short order, it would provide a major boost to a Twins bullpen that has largely handled itself well in his absence. While he’s yet to make an appearance this season, Duran has been among the most dominant relief arms in the sport since making his debut back in 2022 with a 2.15 ERA (191 ERA+) and a 2.85 FIP in 130 innings of work over the past two seasons. He stepped into the closer role for the club last year and performed admirably, picking up 27 saves in 32 chances. Griffin Jax has acted as the club’s top option in the ninth inning while Duran has been shelved.

Gleeman goes on to suggest that while Duran could return before the end of the month, outfielder Max Kepler figures to rejoin the club even sooner than that. Kepler was placed on the IL earlier this month due to a right knee contusion after fouling a ball off his knee on Opening Day but could be nearing a return, with Baldelli suggesting that Kepler is “close” to being ready to return and Gleeman indicating he could be back in the lineup for Minnesota as soon as Sunday.

Kepler scuffled badly prior to his stint on the shelf, going 1-for-20 with a walk to open the season, but was a key cog in the club’s lineup last year as he slashed a solid .260/.332/.484 while playing strong defense in right field. With Kepler out of the lineup, the Twins have been relying on a mix of Trevor Larnach, Manuel Margot, and Austin Martin to cover the outfield corners in his absence with Byron Buxton entrenched in center field.

Twins’ Daniel Duarte To Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

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Twins right-hander Daniel Duarte will undergo an elbow surgery on May 8 and won’t pitch again in the 2024 season, the team announced.  The type of the surgery wasn’t specified, which impacts a possible recovery timeline — an internal brace surgery could have Duarte ready for Opening Day 2025, while a Tommy John surgery would sideline him until July or August 2025.

This marks the second and most serious elbow-related injury of Duarte’s young career, as he previously missed most of the 2022 season due to inflammation in his throwing elbow.  While he returned to pitch 66 2/3 total innings for the Reds at the MLB and Triple-A levels in 2023, a bout of shoulder tightness then sent him to the IL at the end of last season.  Duarte’s 2024 campaign now will end after just two games and four innings for Minnesota, as he has been on the injured list since a retroactive April 4 placement.

Signed out of Mexico as an international free agent by the Rangers in 2023, Duarte took a long path to the majors before making his MLB debut with Cincinnati in 2022.  He has a 3.99 ERA over 38 1/3 innings in the Show, despite a 17% strikeout rate and a high 14.5% walk rate.  Some control problems occasionally cropped up in the minors for Duarte, but his overall minor league performance was pretty solid, including a 4.05 ERA across 46 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball.  He has also posted some strong grounder rates, topping the 50% mark across both his big league and Triple-A work in 2023.

Duarte actually came to the Twins via the Rangers, who claimed Duarte off waivers from the Reds in January before designating him a couple of weeks later and losing him on another claim from Minnesota.  The Twins then DFA’ed and outrighted Duarte off their own roster in February before selecting his contract just prior to Opening Day.

Duarte will be moved to the 60-day IL when the Twins next need a 40-man roster space.  If there is any small consolation to what has to be a rough setback for Duarte, he’ll at least bank a year of MLB service time because the injury occurred while he was on the active roster.

Dave McCarty Passes Away

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Former major league first baseman/outfielder Dave McCarty has passed away after a cardiac event, the Red Sox announced. He was 54.

A Stanford product, McCarty was the third overall pick in the 1991 draft by the Twins. Baseball America ranked the 6’5″ right-handed hitter as a top 25 prospect in the sport over the next two seasons. McCarty reached the majors in May ’93. He played parts of three seasons in Minnesota, hitting .226/.275/.310 before being traded to the Reds. Cincinnati flipped McCarty to the Giants around six weeks later. He played parts of two seasons with San Francisco before again finding himself on the move, this time to Seattle.

McCarty had his most productive year in 2000 with the Royals. He appeared in a career-high 103 games and turned in a .278/.329/.478 batting line with 12 homers. He bounced to the Devil Rays and A’s before landing with the Red Sox on a waiver claim in 2003. McCarty played in 89 games as a role player for the World Series winning team the following season. He hit four homers, including a walk-off shot to center field against the Mariners in May. He finished his playing career after the ’05 season and worked as an analyst on NESN for the next few years.

Over parts of 11 years in the majors, McCarty played in 630 games. He hit .242/.305/.371 with 36 home runs, 68 doubles and 175 RBI. He suited up for seven teams, saw some action in the postseason in 2003, and collected a World Series ring the following year. MLBTR joins others around the game in sending our condolences to the McCarty family, his friends and former teammates.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

Mets Claim Michael Tonkin, Designate Tyler Jay

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The Mets have claimed righty Michael Tonkin off waivers from the Twins, per a team announcement. Left-hander Tyler Jay was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

It’s in many ways a reversal of some recent bullpen-related transactions in Queens. New York designated Tonkin for assignment on April 5, traded him to the Twins for cash, and less than a week later selected the contract of Jay (a former Twins top prospect himself). Minnesota designated Tonkin for assignment a second time after he made just one appearance.

Both Tonkin and Jay were original Twins draftees — Tonkin in the 30th round in 2008 and Jay with the No. 6 overall pick in 2015. The 34-year-old Tonkin has allowed 10 runs in six innings between the Mets and Twins this year, though only four of them have been earned. He’s whiffed eight of 33 opponents and walked three, although he’s also plunked three batters in his tiny sample of innings.

Tonkin spent the 2023 season in the Braves’ bullpen, logging a 4.28 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate in 80 innings. That set a new career-high MLB workload for the journeyman right-hander, who owns a career 4.42 ERA (4.55 FIP, 3.70 SIERA) with a 23.1% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 39.7% grounder rate in 232 1/3 big league innings between Minnesota, Atlanta and New York. Tonkin has also pitched in the D-backs and Brewers systems in addition to stints with the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks, the Mexican League’s Toros de Tijuana, and the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan.

As for Jay, his major league debut came far, far later than most would’ve expected when he was taken sixth overall as a high-profile college arm out of the University of Illinois. A former top-100 prospect, he’s been slowed by shoulder and neck troubles throughout his career and notably underwent thoracic outlet surgery back in 2017, costing him a year of his career. Jay never tossed more than 83 2/3 innings in any of his seasons with the Twins before being cut loose during the canceled 2020 minor league season. He didn’t pitch at all in 2021 and spent the 2022-23 seasons with the Joliet Slammers of the independent Frontier League.

His work with the Slammers earned him a look in the Mets’ system late last year. He re-signed on a minor league deal over the winter, tossed 5 2/3 shutout frames in Triple-A Syracuse to begin the season, and allowed one run on five hits and a walk in his first four MLB frames with the Mets. Jay only struck out one of the 18 batters he faced but also recorded an outstanding 66.7% ground-ball rate. New York will have a week to trade Jay, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

Twins Notes: Wallner, Larnach, Correa, Duran

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The Twins shuffled their outfield mix this afternoon, optioning Matt Wallner to Triple-A St. Paul while recalling Trevor Larnach.(Declan Goff of SKOR North was first to report the move.) Larnach got the nod in left field for tonight’s loss to the Orioles, going 1-4 in his season debut.

Wallner has started the season in a massive slump, striking out in 17 of his first 33 trips to the plate. The Southern Miss product was a productive left-handed bat for the Twins last year, turning in a .249/.370/.507 line with 14 homers through 254 plate appearances. That came with a fair share of whiffs, but last season’s 31.5% strikeout rate is still well lower than the clip at which Wallner has fanned through this year’s first couple weeks.

Between Wallner’s frigid start and Max Kepler’s injured list stint, Larnach could get another chance to carve out a spot in the Minnesota outfield. The former first-round pick has gotten scattered MLB looks going back to 2021. Elevated strikeout rates have prevented him from truly establishing himself. Larnach hit at a roughly league average level (.222/.315/.385) in nearly 700 trips between 2021-23. He nevertheless could be in line for looks against right-handed pitching as a lefty complement to right-handed hitters Austin Martin and Manuel Margot.

Kepler is one of a trio of key lineup pieces on the injured list. The Twins have been without Royce Lewis since Opening Day, while Carlos Correa landed on the shelf late last week. Minnesota initially announced Correa’s injury as an oblique strain before revising the diagnosis to a right intercostal strain. In an appearance on MLB Network radio this afternoon (X link), manager Rocco Baldelli said the Twins would wait for Correa’s symptoms to abate before formulating a specific timeline for his return. Baldelli reiterated that the strain is mild, although he noted that could still lead to an absence of a few weeks.. Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer are handling shortstop with Correa on the shelf.

Injuries have also been a factor on the pitching side, particularly in the bullpen. The Twins have been without star closer Jhoan Duran thus far as he works back from a Spring Training oblique issue. The power righty is making progress toward a return. As reflected on the MLB.com injury tracker, Duran has worked through a pair of bullpen sessions in recent days and is slated to throw to hitters for the first time on Friday.

Duran has been among the most dominant pitchers in the sport since making his 2022 debut. He owns a 2.15 ERA in 130 big league innings, pairing a stellar 33.2% strikeout rate with an otherworldly 63.4% grounder percentage. The 26-year-old has as electrifying an arsenal as anyone, backing a triple-digit heater with an elite curve and an absurd power splitter that averaged north of 98 MPH last season.

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