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Quick Hits: Tommy John, Commissioner, Mock Drafts

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For those interested in seeking to understand the root of the elbow injuries that have plagued the game this year, you’ll want to take a look at this position statement from the American Sports Medicine Institute (hat tip to Peter Gammons). The statement closely ties professional ligament injuries to risky throwing patterns in amateur baseball, including over-use, throwing while fatigued, and pitching year-round. Latin American pitchers have experienced a similar incidence of TJ as have their North American counterparts, the statement also says.

Here are some more notes from around the game:

  • As the search for a new commissioner picks up steam, sitting commish Bud Selig said today that it was possible that a successor could come from outside the game, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports. “That’s a judgment call,” said Selig. “I know there’s been a lot of speculation in some stories. But that’s a judgment call this group will have to make. Understanding the culture of the sport is very important.” He emphasized that it “has to be an inclusive process,” though “people will have to make their own judgments on whether or not you want to stay inside baseball.”
  • A familiar trio of the pitchers sits at the top of the most recent mock draft of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link). In that scenario, Law sees the Cubs looking to strike a below-slot deal with a player like college outfielder Michael Conforto with the fourth overall choice. Some well-regarded prep arms could fall into the sandwich and second round, Law notes, where teams that saved on their first picks will pick them with intentions of spending over slot.
  • Attempting to approach the top ten picks of the draft as if he were the general manager making the final call, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (Insider link). While clubs often say they just want the best player available, Bowden says that few follow through with that. Clubs do draft with their needs (even at the major league level) in mind, says Bowden, in addition to financial, medical, and makeup considerations. Carrying through on his general observations, Bowden sends Evansville lefty Kyle Freeland to the Twins with the fifth overall pick and LSU righty Aaron Nola to the Phillies in the seven slot.

AL Notes: Lester, Burnett, Santana, Suzuki, Polanco

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Red Sox players made news this winter by campaigning openly for the re-signing of Mike Napoli. And Dustin Pedroia even agreed to defer salary in his extension, in part to free payroll space to make a run (which ultimately proved unsuccessful) at retaining Jacoby Ellsbury. As WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, staff ace Jon Lester — one of the players who pushed to keep Napoli — will almost certainly benefit from much the same treatment. The clubhouse clearly wants Lester to be kept in Boston, says Bradford, who notes that there was “some grumbling” after reports emerged of the club’s somewhat underwhelming extension offer.

Here’s more out of the American League:

  • Southpaw Sean Burnett, who signed a two-year, $8MM deal with the Angels before the 2013 season, learned today that he has suffered a torn UCL for the second time in his career, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Burnett had just worked his way back from an elbow injury that cut him down after just 13 appearances in 2013, and now seems destined to miss the rest of the year. That makes it rather likely, of course, that the club will decide to pay him a $500K buyout rather than picking up his $4.5MM option for 2015. The Halos currently feature only one lefty in the pen in Wade LeBlanc. Though the team has some options stashed in the upper minors, such as Nick Maronde and Buddy Boshers, none has Burnett’s track record.
  • As expected, the Orioles are working to secure an extension of the June 1 opt-out date in starter Johan Santana’s minor league deal, reports Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. Assuming that can be worked out, Baltimore hopes to set Santana on a course that could bring him back to the majors as soon as June 18.
  • Twins catcher Kurt Suzuki said he would be open to extension talks if the club is interested, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “It’s something that I think you’d be crazy not to listen,” he said. “You’re always open to those things.” Berardino notes that Minnesota previously extended former backstop Ryan Doumit at a similar point in the 2012 season, after originally signing him to a one-year deal as a free agent (as was the case with Suzuki). Nevertheless, a source says that it is still “too early” to consider a new deal for Suzuki, who could also be setting himself up as a nice trade piece with his .297/.363.405 start.
  • While the Twins seem to have made the right call in locking up Suzuki to a modest deal, they missed out on an even bigger opportunity back in 2009 — though the club was not alone in that respect. As Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets, Minnesota was among about ten other clubs that made offers to outfielder Gregory Polanco which came in just under the Pirates’ winning bid of $175K.

Draft Links: Top 200, Rodon, Cubs, Aiken, Nola, Beede

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Baseball America has expanded its 2014 Draft Database to include the Top 200 names on the board, with high school left-hander Brady Aiken topping the list, followed by high school right-hander Tyler Kolek, NC State left-hander Carlos Rodon, high school catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson and Evansville left-hander Kyle Freeland. The list of names and video on each player is available for free to the public, while scouting reports require a subscription that is highly recommended for draft enthusiasts.

Here’s some more draft-related news…

  • In BA’s latest Mock Draft, Rodon is now projected to slide to the White Sox with the No. 3 pick. As John Manuel explains, there is some concern over Rodon’s usage at the end of the season, including the decision to allow him to return to the mound after a 75-minute rain delay. NC State did not use him on three days’ rest with its season on the line in its final game, either. Manuel spoke to one executive who said, “The $6 million question is whether or not he is athletic enough to start long-term. Some guys think he is, but other guys aren’t so sure and think he may wind up a reliever. It just seems like there isn’t a $6 million player in this draft.” BA’s latest mock draft is available to the public without a subscription.
  • Within that mock draft, Manuel notes that president Theo Epstein was part of a Cubs contingent that scouted Kennesaw State catcher Max Pentecost in last weekend’s Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. If Rodon doesn’t fall to the Cubs at No. 4, the team could sign Pentecost to a money-saving deal that would allow them to spend more in the later portions of the draft. BA’s current projection is for that very scenario to play out.
  • Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reported last night (via Twitter) that Astros GM Jeff Luhnow attended Aiken’s most recent outing on Monday before heading to Japan with director of pro scouting Kevin Goldstein.
  • BA’s Aaron Fitt writes that Louisiana State right-hander Aaron Nola is “clearly college baseball’s best pitcher” and feels that he should reach the Major Leagues relatively quickly after being drafted. Fitt recaps Nola’s most recent start, noting that his fastball sat 95-96 mph when he got into a first-inning jam then settled in at 92-94 mph through the eighth inning. He also features a 79-81 mph slider that gives right-handers fits when thrown inside and an 83-84 mph changeup that generates grounders versus lefties. Nola has dominated the nation’s best conference for two years running, writes Fitt. He is universally regarded as a Top 10 pick in the upcoming draft.
  • From that same piece, Fitt reports that at least five GMs were on-hand to see surefire first-rounder Tyler Beede (Vanderbilt) turn in an underwhelming performance. Beede’s command issues have caused his draft stock to slip this season, and he did little to help that perception with his latest outing. Though he set down the first seven he faced, he opened the fifth inning with three straight walks. After escaping unharmed, he opened the sixth with a walk and would later hit a pair of batters to open the seventh.
  • ESPN’s Keith Law tweeted yesterday that the White Sox were in heavy on Nola’s start in the SEC Tournament, as Kenny Williams Jr. and owner Jerry Reinsdorf were on-hand to watch his outing. On a similar note, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports that the Twins had VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff and top national crosschecker Tim O’Neil on-hand for Nola’s start (Twitter link).

AL Notes: Dozier, Sizemore, Jays, Rangers, Moustakas, Morales

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The title of the game’s most underrated player has gone to the Rays’ Ben Zobrist in the past, writes Dave Cameron for FOX Sports, but now belongs to Brian Dozier of the Twins, who has exhibited a similar career trajectory to the late-blooming Zobrist. Showing power that he never carried in the minors, Dozier emerged last year. He has only upped his performance in 2014, with an increasing walk rate, strong defense, and good baserunning combining with that newfound pop to make Dozier one of the game’s most valuable second basemen over the last calendar year. Even better for Minnesota, the 27-year-old will not even be eligible for arbitration until 2016. Certainly, he increasingly appears to be an extension candidate — a possibility that the team has previously explored.

Here’s more from around the American League:

  • The Red Sox are considering how to proceed with outfielder Grady Sizemore, who ended the evening with a .218/.293/.336 slash in 133 plate appearances, reports Joon Lee of WEEI.com. Manager John Farrell indicated that a move was not out of the question. “There’s ongoing discussion,” he said, “not just today but for some time. We’re trying to get the best read we can on our guys here. That doesn’t suggest there’s any change imminent.” While Sizemore is set to earn just $750K in base salary on his comeback deal, he does get $250K bonuses for every 25th plate appearance between 225 and 500 as well as for his 60th, 90th, 120th, and 150th day on the roster. As those milestones begin to approach, the team will have increasing incentives to consider alternatives.
  • For the division-rival Blue Jays, a move up in the standings only highlights the need to add starting pitching, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. While the results from the rotation have actually been pretty solid, Davidi notes that the staff has failed to go deep into games and still lacks a solid, established group of five starters.
  • The struggling Rangers should consider marketing star infielders Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus over the summer, opines Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. While the club has attractive infield prospects rising through the ranks, its rotation looks thin after its recent run of devastating injuries. Adding some young pitching and temporarily shedding salary in advance of a pitching-rich free agent market could better align the club’s resources for a run in 2015, says Morosi.
  • In the midst of a difficult stretch at the plate, Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas has been optioned to Triple-A in favor of Jimmy Paredes. As Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star writes, the move was not surprising at this point, with the 25-year-old sporting a 152/.223/.320 line. Needless to say, Kansas City will hope that the former top prospect can regain his form with some time in the minors; as Cameron writes on Fangraphs, Moustakas has shown serious contact issues.
  • Notably, the demotion comes not long before Moustakas would have passed the key threshold of three years of MLB service (he entered the season with 2.111 to his credit). As occurred last year with Danny Espinosa of the Nationals, Moustakas could see his arbitration and free agent eligibility delayed by a year apiece if he does not make it back to the bigs. The same holds true for Hector Santiago of the Angels, who was recently optioned to the minors after beginning 2014 with 2.024 years of service in the bag.
  • With the recent example of Stephen Drew’s re-signing with the Red Sox, it is time for the Mariners to seriously consider a move to bring back Kendrys Morales, writes Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. The need is now there with Corey Hart joining Logan Morrison on the disabled list, he says, and the club should have the financial flexibility to make it work. Obviously, it is also important to note that the team now has little chance of acquiring a compensatory draft choice arising out of Morales’s decision to decline a qualifying offer. With no obvious alternative suitors for Morales, Seattle should be in a fairly solid position to make a win-win offer.

Twins Notes: Rosario, Buck, Draft, Defense

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Twins prospect Eddie Rosario’s 50-game suspension will be over at the end of the week, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Vice president of player personnel Mike Radcliff tells Wolfson that Rosario will open his season at Class-A Advanced to shake off some rust, despite a solid showing in 70 Double-A games last season. Rosario has been ranked on several Top 100 Prospect lists — including the 2014 editions of Baseball Prospectus (60) and ESPN’s Keith Law (49) — but his stock took a hit when he tested positive for “a drug of abuse” for the second time this offseason. A few more links on the Twins…

  • Mariners catcher John Buck told Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press this weekend that he was “extremely close” to signing in Minnesota this offseason. According to Buck, his agent (Seth Levinson of ACES) told him there was a very good chance they’d finalize a deal, but Kurt Suzuki jumped in at the last minute and landed a spot with the Twins. “The way Kurt is swinging, they didn’t choose wrong, I guess,” Buck told Berardino. “He’s doing great.” Suzuki has been a surprisingly strong force this season, slashing .312/.378/.416 with the Twins.
  • La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune spoke with Twins scouting director Deron Johnson about the upcoming draft, who spoke to the tricky nature of this year’s draft without a clear-cut No. 1 overall pick. Neal writes that the Twins are doing the most due diligence on LSU right-hander Aaron Nola and NC State left-hander Carlos Rodon on the college side of things. As far as prep players go, righty Tyler Kolek, left-hander Brady Aiken, shortstop Nick Gordon and catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson are all in play.
  • The 2014 Twins have an alarmingly dangerous mix of low-strikeout pitchers and poor defensive players, writes Mike Petriello in an ESPN Insider piece. Petriello looks at the Twins’ poor outfield defense, in particular, noting what he describes as a “spring decision that backfired terribly.” The Twins elected to keep infielder Jason Bartlett as a utility player/backup outfielder — a decision that resulted in the loss of Alex Presley on waivers. When Bartlett abruptly retired, the Twins were forced to designate outfielder Darin Mastroianni for assignment, and they lost him to Toronto on waivers. In other words, as Petriello writes, “by keeping Bartlett, the Twins received zero production and lost two decent outfielders.”

Daniel Carbonell Weighing Five Offers

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Cuban outfielder Daniel Carbonell has received five offers from Major League teams, all of which range from five to seven years in length, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports.  Carbonell is said to be looking for a four-year deal.  If he doesn’t sign by July 2, Carbonell’s signing bonus will count against his new team’s 2014-15 international signing period pool money.

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported over the weekend that the Mariners and Yankees were two of the five finalists for Carbonell, though Chavez doesn’t believe either team has made the 23-year-old a concrete offer.  The Dodgers also aren’t finalists and the White Sox, Red Sox and Braves are “not among the favorites to sign” Carbonell, though those teams showed interest in him earlier this year.

The only other team linked to Carbonell on the rumor mill is Minnesota, who attended his recent showcase and are “monitoring” him.  1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson tweeted, however, that the Twins don’t seem to be “heavily involved” to the extent of other clubs like the Yankees.

Carbonell is a 6’3″, 220-pound switch-hitter with four years of pro experience in Cuba.  Chavez notes that Carbonell “is known for his speed and power” and is considered by some scouts to be a five-tool talent.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Drew, Angels, Suzuki

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Let’s take a look at a few notes out of the American League to round out the evening:

  • While recent developments have made free agent infielder Stephen Drew a more enticing fit for the Red Sox, the club has yet to re-engage agent Scott Boras, reports Alex Speier of WEEI.com. The fractured right finger of Will Middlebrooks — to say nothing of his sluggish play — has clouded Boston’s third base picture, and it now seems quite unlikely that the team will pick up a draft choice through another club inking the compensation-bound Drew. (With only weeks remaining until the amateur draft, interested clubs will presumably wait until the draft passes and signing Drew no longer requires the sacrifice of a pick.) While Speier notes that the Sox’ approach could still change before the draft, it bears noting that Drew himself is now free of the compensation as a practical matter and has little to lose by waiting for his market to open up.
  • The Angels could stand not only to add to the back of the bullpen, but also the starting rotation, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (video link). Los Angeles looked to add Ian Kennedy last year, says Rosenthal, who opines that the club might be interested in dealing for a mid-level arm like Dillon Gee of the Mets. While payroll space is probably not much of an issue, the club does not have a deep set of prospects from which to deal.
  • Veteran catcher Kurt Suzuki has turned his career trajectory on its head through his first 137 plate appearances of 2014, posting an excellent .322/.390/.424 line for the Twins. Needless to say, that is a nice return on the one-year, $2.75MM contract he signed over the offseason. Minnesota could be interested in discussing an extension with Suzuki before the summer is out, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN, though the club has not yet engaged him. Suzuki has hit well enough that the ZiPS projection system now likes him to produce at a league-average rate for the rest of the year; combined with his well-regarded defensive skills, clubhouse presence, and relatively young age of 30, Suzuki could be setting himself up as a fairly attractive trade chip and future free agent target if the Twins don’t move to lock him up.

Quick Hits: TJ, Martinez, Dodgers, Cubs, Amateur

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Pitching injuries are the big topic around the league, so let’s catch up on some of the latest commentary. Writing for GammonsDaily.com, Neil Weinberg offers a hypothesis (which, as he notes, may not really be testable) on the seeming Tommy John epidemic: what if the reason that more high-end professional pitchers are experiencing UCL tears is simply because better management at younger ages has actually prevented them from blowing their arms out at an earlier age? Meanwhile, pointing to the contractual effects of the injury bug, a GM tells Peter Gammons (Twitter link) that, “with all these injuries, I think pitchers will be reluctant to turn down extensions.” At Fangraphs, Wendy Thurm explores the costs to pitchers who lose time to TJ recovery, providing a bevy of salary information on past and current pitchers who have experienced the career-saving procedure.

Here are more notes from around the game:

  • One player coming off of surger (on his shoulder) is righty Cristhian Martinez, who Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com says (Twitter link) is expected to throw for teams by the end of May. The 31-year-old, who was non-tendered by the Braves, was good for a 3.63 ERA in 151 1/3 innings over 2011-12.
  • The Dodgers need to make some moves if they want to get back on trajectory, opines Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. While the team is among the most well-rounded in baseball, that does not mean it is without its faults; one scout tells Castrovince that “the bench is awful, the bullpen is fringy at best, maybe below average, and there’s no situational hitting.” Though Castrovince says that the stats don’t really bear out the latter concern, he says the team should take the much-discussed step of shipping out one of its highly-paid outfielders.
  • Trading away players is an expectation for the Cubs, of course, and Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com discusses the team’s most likely pieces (after ace Jeff Samardzija). Though Jason Hammel just suffered his worst start of the year, Rogers says he still looks to be on track to bring back a strong prospect return. Nate Schierholtz and Jose Veras still look like trade chips to Rogers, though both will need to improve rather substantially to maximize their trade value to their current club.
  • The latest amateur draft mocks are out, with MLB.com offering a first-round projection and Baseball America putting out its second version. The BA staff now sees a shake-up in the early portion: their board has the Marlins going with catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson at second overall, the Cubs choosing lefty collegiate Kyle Freeland in the fourth slot, and big-armed high schooler Tyler Kolek falling to the Phillies at number seven. Both MLB.com and BA like the Jays to take N.C. State shortstop Trea Turner and prep righty Touki Toussaint. Meanwhile, the Twins have interest in Jackson with their fifth-overall pick — if he lasts that long — tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN, though he notes that there is still no consensus as to whether he can stick behind the dish.
  • Turning to the international market, there has of course been much discussion over whether — and, if so, how — a draft might be implemented. Writing for the Hardball Times, Alex Remington argues against a draft. Among his reasons are the concern that less young international players would have a chance to play professionally; various deleterious consequences that could occur in Latin America (without solving the issues that currently persist); and that implementation could pose a “logistical nightmare.”

Injury Notes: Fernandez, Cisnero, Garcia, Belt, Buxton, Beltran

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Injuries continue to dominate the headlines around the league, led of course by the most impactful UCL tear in a year already full of them. The news that star Marlins hurler Jose Fernandez is likely to undergo Tommy John surgery has capped off a difficult stretch of pitching injuries, leading to reactions from around the game. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports says that understanding and addressing the rash of elbow injuries is in its infancy, and could be decades away from any kind of satisfying resolution. Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider link) writes that the club did not mishandle Fernandez, and that the lesson teams have drawn from the rash of TJ procedures is to maximize the innings of young arms before they hit the open market. And Tom Verducci of SI.com argues that the issue is not use at the major league level so much as years of added stress before players become professionals, and explores various possible solutions.

Let’s run through the latest injury news that carries potential hot stove implications:

  • A beleaguered Astros bullpen (collective 5.91 ERA) will be without young righty Jose Cisnero for the rest of the year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, tweets MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. The 25-year-old threw just 4 2/3 ineffective innings in 2014, but tossed 43 2/3 frames of 4.12 ERA ball in his debut season last year. Entering 2013, Cisnero was rated Houston’s 15th-best prospect by Baseball America, which noted that he could become an innings-eating starter.
  • Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia has seemingly defied the odds and worked himself back to the point that he is now a candidate to receive a big league start this weekend, tweets Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. Garcia’s most recent problems have been in the shoulder, though he has previously undergone TJ surgery. Garcia, still just 27, has logged just 177 innings under his four-year, $27MM contract, which runs through 2015 and includes club options for the two following seasons ($11.5MM and $12MM, respectively, each with a $500K buyout).
  • The Giants will be without first baseman Brandon Belt for at least six weeks after successful thumb surgery, reports Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com (on Twitter). It appears that the team will utilize a mix of Michael Morse and Hector Sanchez at first while Belt recovers.
  • Twins minor leaguer Byron Buxton — the game’s consensus top overall prospect — learned today that he has re-aggravated the wrist injury that cost him most of the early portion of the season, reports MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (Twitter links). Though the team does not believe the wrist is any worse than when it was first injured, but another extended absence would obviously further delay the 20-year-old’s final development push.
  • Outfielder Carlos Beltran, one of the major offseason signings by the Yankees, has been diagnosed with a bone spur in his right elbow. As MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports, the club will see if a cortisone show can allow Beltran to avoid surgery. “They believe it’s an old bone spur,” said manager Joe Girardi. “It’s aggravating his elbow now. If in a couple of days he doesn’t feel better, then my level of concern would be pretty high.”

Badler On Top July 2 Prospects

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We’re less than two months from the kickoff of the 2014-15 international signing period, during which Major League clubs will spend a combined hundreds of millions of dollars on amateur talents from Latin America, Europe, Australia and Asia. Many of these players will be as young as 16 years old, and Ben Badler of Baseball America has penned a pair of articles in the past two days highlighting some of the top players and their potential landing spots. A subscription is required and highly recommended in order to read the full scouting report that Badler has on each player. Here are a few of the highlights from his work…

  • Huascar Ynoa, the younger brother of A’s righty Michael Ynoa, could land also land a seven-figure bonus and has been scouted by White Sox vice president Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn. The Red Sox have also been tied to Ynoa, and some sources of have told Badler that they expect the Twins to be involved as well. One scout told Badler that Ynoa has the tools to be a frontline starter but lacks consistency. Badler points out that his older brother’s $4.25MM signing bonus from Oakland reduces some of the urgency for Ynoa to sign immediately on July 2.
  • The Blue Jays look like the strong favorites to ink Venezuelan right-hander Juan Meza, who could command a bonus as large as $1.5MM. Meza works out at Carlos Guillen’s baseball academy in Venezuela and has a three-pitch mix (fastball, changeup, curveball).
  • Fellow Venezuelan right-hander Frankin Perez is also likely to land seven figures and has been most prominently linked to the Astros. Houston is also oft-connected to Venezuelan shortstop Miguel Angel Sierra, whose bonus could reach $1MM, and Dominican outfielder Rafael Ronny, who could be the second-most expensive Dominican outfielder in this year’s class, writes Badler.
  • The Yankees, who are reportedly planning to shatter the international spending limitations this signing period, are heavily linked to Venezuelan catcher Miguel Flames, Venezuelan outfielder Jonathan Amundaray and Venezuelan shortstop Diego Castillo, says Badler. Flames and Amundaray should top $1MM, while Castillo could get close to that figure, he adds.
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