Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Cox, Crawford, DeJesus
Two years ago today the Athletics acquired Matt Holliday from the Rockies in exchange for Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, and Greg Smith. Holliday hit .286/.378/.454 in exactly 400 plate appearances with Oakland before being dealt to the Cardinals for a package led by Brett Wallace at the 2009 trade deadline.
Street has battled injuries but has been solid when on the mound for Colorado, pitching to a 3.30 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 109 innings. Smith has appeared in just eight games for the Rox (all starts), putting up a 6.23 ERA. The real get was CarGo, who will certainly be in the MVP mix after a .336/.376/.598 season with 34 doubles, 34 homers, 26 stolen bases, and a batting title.
The hot stove league will certainly bring us more blockbuster trades, but for now you'll have to settle for this long collection of links, the best the blogosphere had to offer this week…
- SPANdemonium interviews Twins prospect Niko Goodrum.
- M.C. Antil reflects on Bobby Cox's time as a GM and manager (part one, part two).
- We Should Be GMs lists the longest tenured player on all 30 teams.
- Sabernomics dispels some hot stove myths.
- U.S.S. Mariner lays out their plan for Seattle's offseason.
- FanSpeak does the same, just for the Baltimore Orioles.
- Meanwhile, Prospect Insider comes up with some trade ideas for the Mariners.
- Baseball Time In Arlington examines the idea of the Rangers signing Carl Crawford.
- Meet The Mess looks at some potential free agent targets for the Mets.
- Royals Review wonders who the "real get" in the David DeJesus trade is.
- At Home Plate thinks the DeJesus deal shows that Kansas City wants to win.
- Drunk Jays Fans chimes in on Zack Greinke and the Blue Jays as only they can.
- The Process Report explains why trading B.J. Upton now makes sense for the Rays.
- Ivy Report believes the Cubs need to strike fast and trade for Adrian Gonzalez.
- SD Sports Net lists some outfielders that could help the Padres next year.
- Athletics Nation provides a scouting report on Hisashi Iwakuma with some help from PitchFX.
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness looks at Tsuyoshi Nishioka as a second base option for the Dodgers.
- Red Sox Beacon muses about Boston picking up David Ortiz's option.
- Wahoo Blues looks at some backup plans for the Indians in case Carlos Santana has a setback from his knee injury.
- Examiner wonders if a Prince Fielder for Edwin Jackson trade makes sense.
- Analyze This looks at Jorge de la Rosa as a dark horse free agent.
- Yankeeist examines some designated hitter options for the Yankees.
- Baseball Analytics breaks down Ryan Howard's fall from grace.
- Redleg Nation wants to discuss how valuable Jay Bruce is.
- True Grich rants about the Angels and their offseason.
- Crashburn Alley reflects on Jamie Moyer's playing career.
- Mets Gazette provided part one of their top 50 free agents list with predictions. Here's Tim Dierkes' list for comparison.
- Fantasy Rundown compiles links for all of the various prospect lists out there.
- Last, but certainly not least, Pine Tar And Pocket Protectors provides your 2011 Montreal Expos roster.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Twins Rumors: Payroll, Iwakuma, Pavano
The Twins spent about $101MM on payroll in their first season at Target Field. Now that Joe Mauer's $184MM extension is about to kick in, the team will likely be even more expensive in 2011. Here are the details on Minnesota's offseason plans:
- Team president David St. Peter says "the payroll is going to go up," according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
- Christensen reported earlier in the week that the Twins made a bid on Hisashi Iwakuma, who ultimately went to the A's.
- The bid shows that the Twins have interest in adding a starter to a group of rotation candidates that includes Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey. It also suggests the team is preparing for the possibility that Carl Pavano will sign elsewhere.
Odds & Ends: Francoeur, Theriot, Braves, Hacker
Links for Tuesday, as the American League Gold Glove winners are announced…
- Rangers outfielder Jeff Francoeur is expected to clear waivers and become a free agent by week's end, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Francoeur would have been non-tendered on December 2nd, otherwise.
- Speaking of non-tender candidates, Dodgers second baseman Ryan Theriot told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick he hopes to return next year.
- Yahoo's Jeff Passan provides his top 164 free agents.
- ESPN's Keith Law says Arthur Rhodes is a player to avoid, in his relievers buyer's guide (Insider required).
- David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution speculates on outfield options for the Braves.
- Minor league free agent Eric Hacker signed a big league deal with the Twins, agent Matt Sosnick told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). Hacker, 28 in March, posted a 4.57 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 1.1 HR/9 in 165 2/3 Triple-A innings for the Giants' affiliate this year.
Washburn Undecided About 2011
Veteran lefty Jarrod Washburn sat out the 2010 season, but he told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports he's undecided on 2011. Noting that he's been contacted by a couple of teams this week, Washburn explained, "I will not say I am 100 percent retired because a great opportunity might present itself."
Morosi adds that a great opportunity translates as close to Washburn's Wisconsin home. The Brewers or Twins might be his top choices, and both teams should be in the hunt for starting pitching. One point in Milwaukee's favor is their hiring of Ron Roenicke, who worked with Washburn during his Angels days.
Washburn, 36, is a candidate to provide 175 innings of 4.50 ball in 2011. His asking price is an unknown; he's represented by Scott Boras.
Twins Sign Three; Others Hit Free Agency
The Twins signed right-hander Kyle Waldrop, catcher Jair Fernandez and outfielder Juan Portes to minor league deals, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (Twitter links). Twins minor leaguers Jacque Jones, Brock Peterson, Matt Macri, Tim Lahey, Mike Maroth and D'Angelo Jimenez hit free agency.
Odds & Ends: Crawford, Thome, Rowand, Greinke
On this date in 1974, the Braves traded Hank Aaron to the Brewers for Dave May. Today, the Braves made some less memorable moves. Here are the day's links…
- The Giants will at least entertain the idea of signing Carl Crawford, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News.
- Twins GM Bill Smith confirmed to ESPN Radio 1500 that he'd like to bring Jim Thome back to Minnesota in 2011. The slugger hit 25 homers in 2010.
- Jhonny Peralta told the Detroit Free Press that he'd like to return to the Tigers for more than one year. GM Dave Dombrowski was also optimistic about reaching a deal when he turned down the infielder's 2011 option earlier today.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com hears that the Phillies might consider bringing Aaron Rowand back to Philadelphia if the Giants took on most of his salary (Twitter link).
- People close to Zack Greinke tell Heyman that there's no chance the pitcher would accept a trade to New York (Twitter link). For more on Greinke's no-trade clause, click here.
- The Pirates obtained permission to interview former Rockies manager and current Rangers hitting coach Clint Hurdle, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
- The Rockies got a fourth minor league option for Greg Reynolds because the pitcher was injured in 2009, according to Jack Etkin of Inside the Rockies.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post draws a parallel between Alex Rodriguez and Tom Hicks and Cliff Lee and Chuck Greenberg.
Amateur Signing Bonuses: Twins
Time to take our amateur signing bonus series to the Land of 10,000 Lakes…
- Joe Mauer, $5.15MM (2001)
- Miguel Sano, $3.15MM (2009)
- B.J. Garbe, $2.75MM (1999)
- Adam Johnson, $2.5MM (2000)
- Ryan Mills, $2MM (1998)
It's funny looking back at it now, but the Mauer vs. Mark Prior debate was huge back before the 2001 draft. Both were legitimate first overall talents, but Prior was considered more of a sure thing and certainly closer to the big leagues. The Twins opted for the hometown kid with that first pick, and all he's done is develop into one of the two or three best players on the planet. Mauer debuted in 2004 as a 21-year-old and hit .308/.369/.570 in 122 plate appearances, though knee issues dampened his coming out party. He returned the next year fully healthy and hasn't stopped hitting since. Minnesota's franchise player is a .327/.407/.481 career hitter with four All Star appearances, three batting titles, and an MVP to credit. I'd say they got their $5.15MM worth.
The Twins faced heavy competition for Sano last year, most notably from the Pirates, but they were able to sign him to that huge bonus in December. He turned just 17 this past May, hitting .307/.379/.491 in 241 rookie ball plate appearances this season, his pro debut.
Garbe, Johnson, and Mills were all high-priced busts. Garbe, the fifth overall pick in '99, hit just .231/.314/.311 in more than five-plus seasons in the Twins' farm system, eventually getting traded to the Mariners for Pat Borders in August 2004. He's been out of baseball since 2006. Johnson was the second overall pick in '00 and managed to reach the big leagues with Minnesota for all of 26.1 innings (10.25 ERA) in 2001 and 2003. His minor league career consists of a 5.02 ERA in 747.1 innings, and he wound up in an independent league after the Twins released him in January 2005. Mills, taken sixth overall in '98, posted a 5.79 ERA in 480.1 minor league innings and never reached the big leagues. He's been out of baseball since becoming a minor league free agent after the 2004 season.
Twins Pick Up Kubel’s Option, Decline Punto’s
The Twins exercised Jason Kubel's $5.25MM option for 2011 and turned down Nick Punto's $5MM option, according to MLB.com's Kelly Thesier (on Twitter).
Kubel posted a .249/.323/.427 line this year and his lowest OPS since 2006. He hit 21 homers, spending most of his time at right field and DH. The 28-year-old would have been a Type A free agent, so Minnesota could have obtained draft picks if Kubel had turned down arbitration to sign elsewhere. As we predicted in August, the Twins chose to retain Kubel for another season.
Punto, 33 next month, batted .238/.313/.302 in 288 plate appearances and played short, second and third. As Thesier pointed out earlier this month, the Twins were not expected to pick up Punto's option. He is not a ranked free agent, so the Twins won't get compensation picks if they offer arbitration and he signs elsewhere. An offer of arbitration for Punto seems extremely unlikely.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jon Rauch
Twins fans feared the worst when Joe Nathan underwent Tommy John surgery last spring, but Jon Rauch's ability to close games was a big reason why Minnesota won the AL Central. Though Rauch lost the closing role to Matt Capps in July, the 6'11" right-hander still went 21-for-25 in save opportunities, posted a 3.12 ERA in 59 appearances and had an impressive 3.29 K/BB ratio.
Let's see how Rauch stacks up on the free agent market this winter…
The Pros
- Rauch is a Type B free agent, so a team can sign him without losing a compensatory draft pick.
- Rauch might be eager to get away from Target Field. His ERA in 30 home games last season was 4.45, compared to just a 1.84 ERA in 29 road games.
- He's pretty solid against hitters on both sides of the plate. He's obviously better against right-handed hitters (holding them to a .238/.280/.372 career slash line) but Rauch has also done well against left-handed bats — .255/.328/.417.
The Cons
- Rauch lost the stopper's job both last year and in Arizona in 2009. Teams looking for a closer could be worried by the fact that Rauch has yet to show he can handle the job for a full season.
- Rauch tends to make things interesting at the end of games. His H/9 rate was a career-high 9.5 last season.
- After averaging 80.5 appearances per season from 2006 to 2009, Rauch pitched in just 59 games last year due to a variety of minor injuries. He turned 32 last month.
The Verdict
Rauch is more likely to be signed as a set-up man than as a closer, and his solid career track record makes him a candidate for a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of two years and $7MM. Teams looking for closing help this winter include the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Angels and Rays, so Rauch could get a look from those clubs to be at least part of a closing committee. Rauch could also be signed by a team like Atlanta or Washington as an experienced backup option should their young closers (Jonny Venters and Drew Storen, respectively) falter.
It's possible the Twins offer Rauch salary arbitration. He'll get a raise from his $2.9MM salary last season, but if he can't find more than that on the open market, he could accept arbitration and then work out a contract to stay in the Twin Cities. The Twins would be giving up the sandwich pick they'd receive if Rauch signed elsewhere, but with so many free agent relievers in their bullpen, Minnesota will still be in line for other compensation picks. The Twins themselves are one of the clubs looking for closing depth if Nathan isn't fully recovered or back in form after his surgery.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes
Brian Fuentes was in the right place at the right time in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 30 save season when several clubs were willing to spend big on closers. He fell 20 games finished short of having his 2011 option vest, so the 35-year-old lefty is headed for free agency. Let's assess his position.
The Pros
- Fuentes dominated lefties this year: 11.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, no home runs in 14 innings. Also in the small sample department: Fuentes was untouchable in 9.6 innings with the Twins.
- Assuming Mariano Rivera doesn't field offers from multiple teams, Fuentes can make a case as the second-best free agent closer unless Bobby Jenks is non-tendered.
- He's a Type B free agent who won't be offered arbitration anyway, so there's no draft pick cost. Last time around, the Rockies snagged the Angels' #32 pick and chose Tim Wheeler while also taking Rex Brothers in the supplemental round.
The Cons
- Fuentes is 35 and dealt with back pain this year.
- He's prone to free passes, with a 3.8 BB/9 on the season.
- He allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings and a .227 BABIP, figures that he's highly unlikely to replicate.
- Fuentes had the highest flyball rate in baseball (58.5%) among those with 40 innings pitched.
- He's been ordinary against righties the past two years, according to his FanGraphs splits page.
- Fuentes' price tag will come with the typical closer inflation.
The Verdict
Fuentes may come into the offseason seeking two years and a closer gig, but the supply of available stoppers outweighs the vacancies. He may have to settle for one year and $4MM unless Beverly Hills Sports Council can create a bidding war.