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Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Twins.  Here's what I wrote about them on October 6th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Joe Crede, Luis Ayala, Nick Punto (re-signed)

Subtractions: Dennys Reyes, Adam Everett.  Midseason: Mike Lamb, Livan Hernandez, Brian Bass, Juan Rincon, Craig Monroe

The Twins entered the offseason with the left side of their infield open and a desire for relief help.  They paid the market rate to retain Punto in December, and then waited out Scott Boras and signed Crede for $2.5MM in late February.  Ayala was the bullpen choice at $1.3MM.  Additionally, GM Bill Smith locked up young starter Scott Baker at a reasonable $15.25MM with an option on his first free agent year.

The Twins ranked a surprising 3rd in the AL last year with 5.09 runs per game.  Credit goes to the .340 team OBP, which included a .279 team average.  The Twins were second in the league with an .826 OPS with runners in scoring position and didn't have much power.

The '09 Twins project to score 4.79 runs per game, using CHONE projections and Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool.  That would've been 9th in the AL last year.  The projection adds Crede but doesn't account for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris, who received significant playing time in '08.  Joe Mauer's injury will be a big factor, since he's a .410 OBP in the middle of their lineup.

The Twins' rotation posted a 4.32 ERA in 959 innings last year, including 206 innings of 5.64 ball from Livan Hernandez and Boof Bonser.  Note that the Twins' front four – Baker, Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, and Glen Perkins – totaled only 559.6 innings last year (an average of 140 each).  This rotation should be the class of the AL Central if healthy.

The bullpen lost Dennys Reyes, but also subtracts poor performances from Bass, Bonser, and Rincon.  I still think they could've done better than Ayala.  A big year from Jose Mijares would go a long way.

Defensively, the Twins ranked 7th in the AL according to the Fielding Bible II.  Crede has the potential to make a big difference at third base; that's his main source of value.  Young played an ugly left field last year, but he still has breakout potential on both sides of the ball.  The Twins' best defensive outfield will involve Gomez in center and Denard Span in left.

The Twins allowed 745 runs last year, and as you can see there's some potential for improvement in both pitching and defense.  With the same run prevention they look like an 84 win team.  But with a healthy rotation and seasons from Crede and Mauer, 88 wins seems possible.

Bottom line: Bill Smith could've done more with the bullpen, but the Crede addition and the Twins' young pitching should keep them in contention in the AL Central.

Heyman On Bargains, Andruw, Buchholz

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The latest from SI.com's Jon Heyman…

  • Heyman runs through his top 13 free agent bargains, beginning with Orlando Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, and Jon Garland.
  • Andruw Jones will decide next week whether to opt out and become a free agent again.  Heyman reminds us that the Yankees, Braves, and Phillies were previously interested.  He says a Yankees person "hedged" when asked if they'd rejoin the Jones pursuit.
  • The Twins sent a scout to watch Ivan Rodriguez before he signed with Houston, but Heyman figures they must be confident about Joe Mauer's back after standing pat.
  • The Red Sox "remain uninterested in the Rangers' proposal from a few months ago of Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Clay Buchholz."  Buchholz has allowed one run, nine Ks, and two walks in 8.6 innings this spring.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bucs, Jays, Pedro, Pudge, Phils, Twins

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On this date 72 years ago, in what may have been the biggest trade in Negro League history, Josh Gibson and Judy Johnson were traded from the Pittsburgh Crawfords to the Homestead Grays for $25K and two players. Earlier this week, Pudge Rodriguez, one of the greatest catchers of this generation, became the latest big-name free agent to find a home. Let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • Pirate Revolution takes a look at some players that could become available for the Pirates in the next two weeks as teams trim their rosters, including Jeff Niemann.
  • The 2012 payroll commitments in the AL East do not sit well with Drunk Jays Fans.
  • MLB Notebook attempts to calculate exactly how much teams should be willing to give Pedro Martinez.
  • Jorge Says No! says the Astros and Pedro are a good match and the recent signing of Pudge is an indication that the Astros are going for it this season.
  • The Ghost of Moonlight Graham says Pudge "fooled" the Astros into giving him $1.5MM.
  • The Fightins try to dispel the myth that Raul Ibanez was a poor defensive addition to the Phillies.
  • Twins Geek takes a look at the Twins incredible shrinking payroll.
  • Fire Brand of the American League says the release of Josh Bard has much bigger implications for the Red Sox than might be evident on the surface.
  • Sully Baseball takes a look at the Cleveland Indians all-time homegrown team versus their all-time acquired team.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here.

Astros Agree To Terms With Ivan Rodriguez

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1:08pm: ESPN’s Steve Phillips says the Astros reached an agreement with Rodriguez on a one-year, $1.5MM deal with another $1.5MM in performance bonuses.  Scott Boras’ offseason is over, aside from Byung-Hyun Kim and Eric Gagne.

12:54pm: A deal with the Astros appears close, according to Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle.  GM Ed Wade admitted he’s re-engaged with Scott Boras on Pudge.

11:28am: According to SI.com’s Jon Heyman, Pudge is in serious talks with the Astros.

10:05am: Free agent catcher Ivan Rodriguez may sign soon.  A look at his rumored suitors:

Heyman On Pedro, Manny, Crede

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The latest from SI.com’s Jon Heyman…

  • Heyman sees the Pedro Martinez sweepstakes as between the Dodgers and Mets, but he might have to come down to the $2.5MM range.  The Mets don’t seem thrilled with Tim Redding, who "came to camp with a sore shoulder and 20 pounds overweight."
  • If Manny Ramirez opts out after the ’09 season, he’ll seek a three-year deal.  Heyman suggests Manny may be better off staying in L.A. than signing with a New York team.
  • Heyman spoke to one White Sox person who questioned Joe Crede’s ability to play on the Minnesota turf.

Pudge Rodriguez Rumors: Saturday

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10:16pm: Patrick Reusse of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that, despite the strong potential for Joe Mauer to miss the first few weeks of the season, Twins General Manager Bill Smith "made it clear that signing free agent Ivan Rodriguez" is not considered an option. They’re looking internally for a temporary solution.

10:15pm: Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle says that the Giants "have explored the idea" of signing Rodriguez. Orlando Cepeda talked to Pudge about the Giants’ interest at the WBC and says "he’s very happy about it. He would love to play here."

7:39pm: Danny Knobler at CBSSports.com writes that the Astros are showing interest in Pudge, though "it is not yet clear how serious the Astros’ interest is."  Last night MLB.com’s Alyson Footer seemed quite certain the Astros would not be signing Rodriguez, after talking to GM Ed Wade.

5:35pm: La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune says he has heard nothing from the Twins to indicate that they are interested in Rodriguez. The Twins are waiting for an update about Joe Mauer’s back, but Neal writes that, "as of now, there is nothing the Twins have heard that suggests Mauer will be out a long time."

2:03pm: As noted by Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, the "Marlins have nothing to discuss with" Pudge if he is still demanding a good chunk of playing time.

1:17pm: SI.com’s Jon Heyman reports that the Twins and Giants have emerged as new potential landing spots for Pudge.  He’d be a nice fill-in for the ailing Joe Mauer in Minnesota, and San Francisco reportedly may think about using him at first or third base.

9:19am: few Ivan Rodriguez rumors for the morning…

  • According to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com Pudge could sign shortly. When he was asked when we’ll know where he’s playing this year Rodriguez said "You’ll see soon."
  • The Miami Herald has more quotes from Pudge, who repeats that he considers himself an everyday player. His agent is communicating with the Marlins, but Pudge says "nothing’s happening" right now.
  • According to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro Pudge is open to playing first or third base. He played a little first base for the Tigers in 2006 (and even a game at second) but he’s never played third in the majors.

Mariners Sign Chad Cordero

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FRIDAY, 7:04pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post has Cordero’s contract deals.  He gets a base salary of $750K if he reaches the Majors, plus incentives.  He can also request his release if he’s not in the bigs by June 15th.

THURSDAY, 9:33pm: According to Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, the Mariners signed reliever Chad Cordero to a minor league deal.  He picked the right team, as the Ms have perhaps the least-settled closing situation in baseball.  In fact, Cordero’s agent Larry Reynolds told Ken Rosenthal that the pitcher turned down more money elsewhere for the chance to close in Seattle.

Cordero, 26, had surgery in July to repair a torn labrum and biceps tendon.  Reynolds told Rosenthal that the typical recovery time would put Cordero on track to pitch in April or May, barring setbacks.  Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune says the Twins believe Cordero still has a ways to go.

Odds & Ends: Pedro, Boras, Bonds, Fielding

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Links for Friday…

Manny History: Almost A Twin Or Mariner?

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I’ve been enjoying the new book Becoming Manny by Jean Rhodes and Shawn Boburg.  The book is surprisingly objective for an authorized Manny Ramirez biography.

As you know, Manny was drafted 13th overall in 1991 by the Indians.  The Yankees, Braves, Twins, Cardinals, Brewers, Astros, Royals, Padres, Orioles, Phillies, Mariners, and Cubs passed on him.  Many teams did not view Manny as a first-round pick, partially because he didn’t speak English well and had not graduated high school.  The book also suggests that scouts simply did not enjoy driving out to areas like Washington Heights to watch prospects.

Old school Twins scout Herb Stein recommended Manny, though.  From the book:

Stein pushed the Twins to take Manny with their third overall pick.  But he was rebuffed by his bosses – a source of bitterness even today.  The Twins chose Stanford first baseman David McCarty, who wound up hitting 36 career home runs and batting .242 in eleven major league seasons of part-time duty.

The Mariners also made a run:

Manny was playing a Youth Service League doubleheader.  In a late show of interest, the Seattle Mariners’ top scout and assistant to the general manager attended.  DeLuca [the scout who signed Manny for Cleveland] felt a wave of panic.  After the game, Seattle’s reps talked to [Manny’s coach Mel] Zitter for ten minutes on the right-field line.  They passed DeLuca on their way to the parking lot, exchanged greetings and said, "Good luck"-  shorthand, DeLuca believed, for, "We’re going to pass on Manny.  He’s all yours."

Manny wasn’t even a lock for the Indians.  They wanted a pitcher:

Indians general manager Hank Peters and director of player development Dan O’Dowd had been pressuring [scouting director Mickey] White all winter to pursue college pitcher Aaron Sele, a six-three right-hander from Washington State.

Eventually, DeLuca and White were able to convince Indians director of baseball operations John Hart to recommend Ramirez.  Sele would go to the Red Sox at #23.

Twins Still Eyeing Chad Cordero

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According to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins offered $3MM guaranteed to Eric Gagne before signing Luis Ayala.  That would’ve been a mess, given the damage found in Gagne’s shoulder.  But perhaps the Twins would’ve balked after giving Gagne a physical.

Christensen adds that the Twins continue to monitor free agent reliever Chad Cordero, who is coming back from shoulder surgery.

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