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Mets Sign Omar Narvaez

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December 22: The Mets have officially announced the deal.

December 15: The Mets have dipped into free agency yet again, agreeing to terms with backstop Omar Narváez. It’s reportedly a two-year, $15MM guarantee that allows him to opt out at the end of next season. Narváez, a client of ISE Baseball, will make $8MM in 2023, leaving him to decide on a $7MM option for the following season.

Narváez, who turns 31 in February, heads to Queens after three seasons in Milwaukee. The Brewers acquired the lefty-hitting backstop from the Mariners during the 2019-20 offseason. Narváez had developed a reputation as a bat-first catcher in the Pacific Northwest. He’d hit .278/.353/.460 during his lone season with Seattle. That’s excellent production for a catcher, but his pitch framing metrics were well below-average.

The Brewers landed the #1 catcher they’d been seeking in that deal, although they likely didn’t foresee the scope of his production changing the way it did. Narváez seemed to make a concerted effort to improving his pitch framing numbers. He posted strong marks in that regard in all three seasons in Wisconsin, with Statcast cumulatively crediting him as 21 runs above average over the three-year stretch. That defensive uptick coincided with a drop in production at the plate, though, as he hasn’t managed to repeat his early-career offensive numbers.

Over his time as a Brewer, Narváez hit .233/.318/.350. He was average or worse in each season, including a lackluster .206/.292/.305 mark in 296 plate appearances during his platform year. The Venezuela native had a pair of injured list stints this year, missing time with COVID-19 and then a left hamstring strain. Even when healthy, Milwaukee deployed a more even split in playing time with Víctor Caratini, who marginally outperformed Narváez at the plate.

Narváez has solid contact skills, but a 22-homer season of 2019 now looks like the product of the very lively ball used that season. He’s only topped 10 homers in another year once, hitting 11 in Milwaukee’s hitter-friendly home environment in 2021. While he rarely hits the ball hard, he’s worked walks at a strong clip in each season of his career and strikes out less often than the average batter (aside from an anomalous spike in the abbreviated 2020 campaign).

It’s a bit surprising to see Narváez secure a $15MM commitment, particularly one that affords him a chance to retest the market a year from now. With Willson Contreras and Christian Vázquez off the board, he was the top remaining free agent backstop. Narváez has showed glimpses of offensive and defensive potential, although he’s never quite put the two together over a full season.

New York has been incredibly aggressive this winter, but they’d sat out the catching market. The Mets could’ve rolled things back with veteran James McCann as the starter, particularly since they have the glove-first Tomás Nido as a depth option and top prospect Francisco Álvarez in the wings. McCann has only a .220/.282/.328 line in 603 plate appearances since signing a four-year free agent deal over the 2020-21 offseason. Nido has never hit enough to be a regular, and the 21-year-old Álvarez still faces questions about his ability to handle the rigors of the position. The presence of Narváez doesn’t figure to stand in Álvarez’s way once the organization deems the youngster ready for a full look, though it’ll afford them some extra veteran security if he needs more time to hone his receiving and game-calling skills.

The Mets would presumably be happy to find a trade partner for McCann. With $24MM still due over the final two years of his contract, the Mets would surely have to pay down some of the money to offload the veteran backstop. They could keep the righty-hitting McCann to partner with Nárvaez in a loose platoon arrangement. Doing so might require parting with Nido, however, since he’s out of minor league option years. All three backstops would have to stay on the MLB roster or be cut loose, and that’s before considering the possibility of an Álvarez promotion. At some point next year, one of McCann or Nido seems likely to have changed uniforms.

Tacking on another $8MM brings the Mets projected 2023 payroll north of $343MM, per Roster Resource. The deal counts for $7.5MM against the luxury tax, since the player option is treated as guaranteed money when calculating its average annual value.

New York has already shattered the fourth and final tier of CBT penalization, subjecting them to a 90% tax on every additional dollar spent. The Narváez deal will cost them an extra $6.75MM in taxes, meaning the Mets are committing $14.75MM to secure his services for next year alone (in addition to the 2024 option). That’s likely a far higher price than any other club would’ve paid, but it’s the latest example owner Steve Cohen is unconcerned about spending when the front office presents him an opportunity to improve the roster.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report Narváez and the Mets were nearing agreement on a contract. Joel Sherman of the New York Post  first reported it was a two-year guarantee with an opt-out after 2023. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the $15MM guarantee and financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Acquire James McCann From Mets

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The Mets and Orioles swung a trade late Wednesday night, with Baltimore acquiring James McCann and cash considerations for a player to be named later. New York is reportedly covering $19MM of the $24MM still remaining on McCann’s contract over the next two years. To create a spot on the 40-man roster, Baltimore designated infielder Tyler Nevin for assignment.

It looked like only a matter of time before McCann changed teams. New York agreed to terms with Omar Narváez on a two-year contract last Thursday. As soon as news of that agreement broke, it became clear the Mets were going to deal one of their incumbent backstops, with McCann the likeliest candidate. Neither McCann nor Tomás Nido could be sent to the minor leagues, and carrying three catchers on the 26-man roster would’ve been challenging. That’s before considering top prospect Francisco Álvarez, who figures to get an extended MLB look at some point soon after debuting late in the 2022 season.

McCann will secure his roster spot in Baltimore. The O’s entered the day with just one catcher on their 40-man roster, making it an inevitability they’d bring in some help from outside the organization. Of course, that backstop is AL Rookie of the Year runner-up Adley Rutschman. McCann will have to move into a backup role with the O’s.

The past couple seasons have been rough for McCann, who first joined the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. New York placed a sizable bet on the veteran backstop’s previous couple seasons with the White Sox. The University of Arkansas product had hit .276/.334/.474 through 587 plate appearances for Chicago between 2019-20. That handily dwarfed the .240/.288/.366 mark he’d posted over the preceding four-plus seasons with the Tigers, and the Mets clearly felt he’d turned a corner offensively. They inked him to a four-year, $40.6MM free agent contract that beat most expectations.

New York gave McCann extended run in his first season, starting him at catcher for 97 of their 162 games in 2021. His production more closely resembled that of his Detroit days, however. He hit .232/.294/.349 over 412 plate appearances, connecting on just 10 home runs after hitting 18 longballs in his only full season with the White Sox. Nevertheless, McCann was back in the Opening Day lineup for the second season of the deal as the Mets hoped for a bounceback campaign.

That wasn’t to be, as he struggled with both underperformance and injury this year. The veteran fractured the hamate bone in his left hand/wrist in mid-May. He required surgery and lost six weeks to rehab. A few weeks after his return, he suffered a strain in his left oblique and went back on the injured list for a little less than a month. In between the health setbacks, he managed just a .195/.257/.282 line in 61 games. By the time the postseason rolled around, Nido was starting behind the dish. McCann was relegated to a depth role, while Álvarez was with the big league club in a catcher/DH hybrid capacity.

The past two seasons certainly aren’t what the Mets had envisioned when they signed McCann. As a result, they’re left to pay down a notable chunk of the remaining money on his contract. His deal was backloaded, with a $600K signing bonus followed by successive $8MM salaries in the first two seasons. He’s due $12MM in each of the next two years, the bulk of which will remain on the Mets’ ledger.

While New York only sheds $5MM in actual salary, the savings from the trade are a bit more than that for owner Steve Cohen and his front office. New York is going to shatter all four thresholds of the competitive balance tax, meaning they’re paying a 90% tax for every additional dollar they spend next season.

Tim Healey of Newsday tweets that New York’s CBT hit on McCann will recalculate to encompass the two years and $19MM they’re still paying — a $9.5MM average annual value. His contract had previously counted for $10.6MM against the team’s tax ledger (reflecting the AAV of his four-year deal), so they’ll shave roughly $1.1MM off their CBT number. That translates to $990K in tax savings this year. If they surpass all four CBT thresholds again next year, they’d be taxed at 110% on every dollar spent beyond the fourth threshold. Shaving $1.1MM off their CBT mark would pick up around $1.21MM in tax savings that season.

Paying down the deal makes it a reasonable proposition for the Orioles. A $5MM commitment spread over two years is minimal for a veteran catcher. Players like Mike Zunino and Austin Hedges have signed one-year deals in the $5-6MM range recently as free agents. Those players will take on a larger role in their new destinations than McCann will with the Orioles, but he’d have fit in that group were he available on the open market. The O’s are nowhere near the luxury tax threshold, so the money New York saves in that regard is of little consequence to the O’s.

There’s no question it’s Rutschman’s job, but McCann offers a respected and experienced voice behind him on the depth chart. After a few seasons of subpar pitch framing numbers, he has rated as a slightly above-average framer in two of the past three years. McCann doesn’t have a great arm, but he’ll bring competent receiving when called upon in Rutschman’s stead. A situational role could allow manager Brandon Hyde to work him in against left-handed pitching, against which he has a career .258/.325/.458 mark. They’ll presumably look to shield him from righties, who have limited him to a meager .237/.284/.351 line.

It’s a minimal financial hit for Baltimore, and the acquisition cost will be minor. It’s not likely the player to be named later will be a prospect of much renown, with the Mets not negotiating from a position of strength. For the most part, the swap is about the Mets clearing the roster spot and some money. Baltimore will plug the #2 catcher spot they’d been seeking to address.

Doing so means they risk losing Nevin, who was bumped from the 40-man roster. The son of Angels skipper Phil Nevin, Tyler briefly debuted in the majors in 2021, but the bulk of his MLB experience came this past season. He hit just .197/.299/.261 with a pair of home runs across his first 184 trips to the plate. Nevin appeared at all four corner positions but rated poorly in the eyes of public metrics for his work at third base.

Prospect evaluators have long considered Nevin more of a bat-first player, so his defensive struggles at the hot corner aren’t too surprising. Baltimore has stockpiled plenty of upper level talent in the infield that had surpassed or was likely to soon leapfrog Nevin on the depth chart. They’ll now have a week to trade him or place him on waivers.

While Nevin doesn’t have much MLB experience, he’s only 25 and has a more respectable Triple-A track record. The righty is a .246/.328/.417 hitter through 644 plate appearances at the top minor league level. Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun tweets the O’s were granted a fourth minor league option year, meaning  any team that acquired Nevin could bounce him between the majors and Triple-A for another season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Orioles were acquiring McCann. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Mets were receiving a player to be named later and that the O’s were covering $5MM in salary.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets To Sign Danny Mendick

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The Mets are signing infielder Danny Mendick to a one-year, $1MM contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). Mendick had hit free agency after being non-tendered by the White Sox at the end of the season. He’s an Icon Sports Management client.

New York will be the second career organization for Mendick, who entered the professional ranks as 22nd-round selection of the White Sox back in 2015. A UMASS – Lowell product, he played four-plus seasons in the minors before breaking into the majors late in the 2019 campaign. Mendick played a part-time role as a light-hitting utility infielder for the next couple seasons, posting a .239/.298/.342 line in 340 plate appearances through the 2021 season.

In a brief look during the 2022 campaign, Mendick flashed some more interesting offensive production. He was off to a .289/.343/.443 start through 31 games. That production was built on the back of a probably unsustainable .352 average on balls in play, but he’d done enough to warrant an increasingly larger role in the middle infield. Mendick briefly looked as if he might seize the primary second base from Josh Harrison, whose tenure with the Sox started slowly. Unfortunately, his season was cut short when he tore the ACL in his left knee in June.

That proved to be the end of his White Sox tenure, as Chicago cut him loose before he could get a chance to return from the injury. Whether he’ll be healthy enough to crack the Opening Day roster isn’t clear, though the Mets like him enough to guarantee him an offseason 40-man roster spot in any event. New York certainly isn’t hurting for infield depth after agreeing to terms with Carlos Correa. Mendick still has a pair of minor league option years and can be sent to Triple-A Syracuse freely for a couple seasons.

The $1MM guarantee is barely north of the league minimum. The Mets will pay a 90% tax on that figure thanks to their luxury tax status, making the actual payment for them $1.9MM. Mendick has between two and three years of MLB service, so he’ll be eligible for arbitration for at least three seasons after next if he shows enough to hold a spot on the New York roster.

Scott Boras Comments On Carlos Correa Situation

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The past week has seen an incredible free agent plot twist that’s unprecedented in baseball history. Reports emerged last week indicating that the Giants had agreed to terms with shortstop Carlos Correa on a 13-year, $350MM deal. That deal, like all free agent agreements, was pending a physical. However, it was reported yesterday that an issue flagged during Correa’s physical caused the Giants to delay a press conference that was set to introduce Correa. That was followed by a stunning middle-of-the-night report that Correa had a new agreement with the Mets for 12 years and $315MM.

The entire baseball world is still trying to piece together how such a strange sequence of events came to pass. Correa’s agent, Scott Boras, has provided his perspective today, giving comment to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

“We reached an agreement. We had a letter of agreement. We gave them a time frame to execute it,” Boras said. “They advised us they still had questions. They still wanted to talk to other people, other doctors, go through it. I said, ‘Look, I’ve given you a reasonable time. We need to move forward on this. Give me a time frame. If you’re not going to execute, I need to go talk with other teams.”

It still isn’t publicly known what issue the Giants found during Correa’s physical, but Boras frames it as an old injury that precedes Correa’s time in the majors. “You’re talking about a player who has played eight major-league seasons,” Boras said. “There are things in his medical record that happened decades ago. These are all speculative dynamics. Every team has a right to go through things and evaluate things. The key thing is, we gave them (the Giants) medical reports at the time. They still wanted to sign the player and negotiate with the player.”

Rosenthal lays out that Correa suffered a season-ending leg injury in the minor leagues in 2014 but he has not been on the injured list for a lower leg injury since his promotion to the majors. He’s also had back issues in the past but his last IL stint for a back injury was in 2019.

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi also provided a comment, though without getting into specifics. “While we are prohibited from disclosing confidential medical information, as Scott Boras stated publicly, there was a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination,” Zaidi said to reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “We wish Carlos the best.”

It’s worth reiterating that, with the Giants not providing any details, we only really have one side of the story. As Correa’s agent, Boras is surely motivated to wipe away the concern of the Giants as unreasonable or a non-issue. Correa’s new deal with the Mets is also pending a physical and won’t be official until that is complete. However, if the Mets end up having the same concerns as the Giants, it might be difficult for them to back out in a similar fashion. Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets could face a grievance if they back out of the deal since owner Steve Cohen has already discussed the deal on the record.

Also noted by Rosenthal, it’s not entirely unprecedented for medical personnel to come to different conclusions about the health of a player. This Boras-Mets situation was the other way around with Kumar Rocker, whom the Mets selected 10th overall in the 2021 draft. The Mets had agreed to give Rocker, who is represented by Boras, a $6MM bonus before medical concerns scuttled the deal. Rocker re-entered the draft a year later and was selected third overall by the Rangers.

It has also occasionally happened in the past that free agents agree to terms with teams but then issues pop up with the physical before the deal is official. In one recent example, reliever Grant Balfour agreed to terms with the Orioles on a two-year, $15MM deal prior to the 2014 season. The O’s backed out after conducting Balfour’s physical and he instead signed with the Rays for two years and $12MM. However, a similar situation for a free agent of Correa’s magnitude hasn’t been seen before.

Mets To Sign Carlos Correa

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In a shocking development, Carlos Correa has agreed to join the Mets for a 12-year, $315MM contract, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.  Correa had previously agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants, yet reports surfaced yesterday that an unknown issue with Correa’s medicals had led to a postponement of the Giants’ introductory press conference for the shortstop.  The 28-year-old Correa is represented by the Boras Corporation, and his deal with the Mets will become official once he passes a physical.

As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets, the “Giants flagged something in [Correa’s] physical and doctors disagreed.”  Slusser also reported yesterday that Correa’s back wasn’t the issue, though back soreness has sent the former All-Star to the injured list on multiple occasions during his career.

Whatever the Giants took issue with in Correa’s physical, obviously the problem wasn’t enough to deter the Mets from adding yet another high-priced star to their already loaded roster (and payroll).  Mets owner Steve Cohen said last week that the team made a late bid of around $300MM to land Correa, but that offer was turned down by agent Scott Boras since talks with the Giants had already reached an advanced stage.

As it turned out, that late attempt from Cohen was seemingly all Boras needed to secure another mega-deal for his client quickly after the agreement with San Francisco fell apart.  As Cohen told Heyman, “we kind of picked up where we were before and it just worked out” over the course of four or five hours’ worth of extra negotiations.

Correa’s new contract with New York is one year shorter and worth slightly less in average annual value ($26.25MM with the Mets compared to $26.92MM with the Giants).  It is also “only” now the 10th-largest contract in baseball history in terms of total value, while the $350MM deal with San Francisco was the fourth-largest in history.

Still, the deal handily surpasses MLBTR’s projection of a nine-year, $288MM pact for Correa.  Like the structure of the original Giants contract as well as other deals signed by Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner this winter alone, the longer length allows the team to spread out the luxury-tax hit over more years, while the player still gets his money as well as extra security.  The Mets themselves used a version of this strategy in re-signing Brandon Nimmo to an eight-year, $162MM deal, as Nimmo’s tax number is $20.25MM.  Correa now joins Nimmo and Francisco Lindor as Mets players signed beyond the 2029 season, though the Mets’ expenditures this winter have varied widely in length.

The overall numbers of the Mets’ spending spree continue to stagger.  Assuming Correa’s contract pays him $26.25MM in each year of the deal, the Amazins’ payroll will now soar past the $377MM mark for 2023.  Having already far surpassed the fourth and highest tier ($293MM) of Competitive Balance Tax penalties, New York is paying a 90% tax on every dollar spent beyond the $293MM threshold.  That works out to roughly $23.62MM added to the Mets’ tax bill, thus putting their luxury tax number over $386MM.

Correa, Nimmo, Justin Verlander, Edwin Diaz, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, and Omar Narvaez represent the star-studded list of free agents signed and re-signed by New York this offseason alone, to say nothing of their previous big splashes since Cohen bought the team just over two years ago.  Needless to say, Cohen has established new standards for spending, as the owner has made no qualms about his desire to immediately make the Mets as competitive as possible.  The result was a 101-win season in 2022, but the Amazins didn’t make it past the first round of the expanded playoffs, losing to the Padres in three games in the Wild Card Series.

The Correa signing “really makes a big difference,” Cohen said.  “I felt like our pitching was in good shape.  We needed one more hitter.  This puts us over the top.”

Indeed, most of the Mets’ focus had been on revamping a rotation and bullpen that was full of free agents.  While Diaz and Ottavino were re-signed, plenty of holes had to be filled after Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Seth Lugo, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor Williams, Trevor May, and Mychal Givens all signed elsewhere.  Nimmo was the biggest pending free agent on the position player side, and Narvaez should help bolster the catching corps, but Cohen and GM Billy Eppler weren’t going to curb their aggressiveness.

To this end, one of baseball’s best shortstops in Correa now won’t even be a shortstop, as Correa will now move to third base in deference to Lindor.  Correa won a Platinum Glove, Gold Glove, and Fielding Bible Award for his work at shortstop just in 2021, and his professional experience at third base consists of one game with the Astros’ Double-A affiliate in 2015.  That said, Lindor is an excellent fielder in his own right, and the Outs Above Average and UZR/150 public metrics prefer his glovework at shortstop to Correa’s over the course of their careers.  There isn’t much doubt that Correa should be able to translate well to the hot corner, thus improving the Mets’ defense as well as the impact he’ll bring to the lineup.

With Correa now the new third baseman, Eduardo Escobar is suddenly out of a starting job.  It wasn’t even 13 months ago that Escobar was one of New York’s big signings of the 2021-22 offseason, as he inked a two-year, $20MM deal.  Escobar was decent if unspectacular, hitting .240/.295/.430 with 20 homers for a 106 wRC+ over 542 plate appearances in his first year in Queens.

“Decent if unspectacular” wasn’t enough for a team so intent on winning, however, and thus Escobar could now join Luis Guillorme as infield depth.  It stands to reason that the Mets could explore trading Escobar (and the $10MM remaining on his deal) to a team in need of a dependable veteran infielder, or New York could simply keep Escobar as a backup option in the event of an injury to Correa or starting second baseman Jeff McNeil.

Looking further down the depth chart, top prospect Brett Baty is also a third baseman, as is Mark Vientos (ranked by MLB Pipeline as the seventh-best minor league in New York’s farm system).  Baty has gotten some time as an outfielder and now might be viewed as a possible replacement for Canha in left field, while Vientos might be destined for a move off third base anyway, with first base potentially being his ultimate spot on the field.  With Correa now locked into the hot corner, however, there seems an increased possibility that the Mets could shop either of these prospects for other upgrades.

Today’s news marks the latest twist in a controversy-filled career for Correa, largely tied to his participation on the 2017 Astros team that won a World Series championship later clouded by the sign-stealing scandal.  Correa’s time in Houston ended when he signed a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins last winter, though that shorter-than-expected contract was designed to allow a quick return to the free agency.  Correa had opt-out clauses after both the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, and he exercised that first opt-out to re-enter the market in an offseason that wasn’t interrupted by the lockout.

Correa hit .291/.366/.467 with 22 homers over 590 plate appearances in his lone season in Minnesota, with a 140 wRC+ that stands as the third-highest of his eight MLB seasons.  Coming off a strong platform year and still being younger than most free agents once they reach the open market, Correa had every expectation of finally landing the pricey long-term contract he initially wanted last year.

The result was two pricey, long-term contracts, with the Mets swooping in to take Correa away from the Giants.  It’s probably wise to not totally assume Correa’s pact with the Mets is a done deal until the physical is passed and an official announcement is made, given the stunning nature of the last 24 hours.  Yesterday’s reports of a delay certainly raised red flags about the status of Correa’s agreement with San Francisco, but with an absence of any concrete news, there wasn’t yet any reason to believe that Correa wouldn’t still eventually end up in the Bay Area.

Instead, the Giants’ winter plans have now been dealt an almost unfathomable setback.  The Giants slumped to an 81-81 record after their 107-win season in 2021, leaving president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi in search of a major acquisition.  San Francisco has lots of payroll space and lots of needs around the roster to accommodate at least one new superstar, and there seemed little doubt that the Giants were lining up to make the first true blockbuster signing of Zaidi’s four-year tenure.

Aaron Judge was clearly the top priority heading into the offseason, and the Giants reportedly offered Judge around $360MM before the AL MVP took that same salary over a nine-year deal to re-sign with the Yankees.  With Judge off the board, San Francisco then turned to the shortstop market, with Correa emerging as their top target (ahead of Turner, Bogaerts, or Dansby Swanson).  The $350MM deal represented the biggest contract in franchise history, and a resounding counter to any argument that the Giants’ front office was unwilling or unable to land top-tier free agents.

It isn’t exactly true that the Giants are back to square one, since they’ve also signed Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea in free agency, and Joc Pederson was retained via the qualifying offer.  But, Carlos Rodon left the team to also sign with the Yankees, removing another star from the 2022 roster.  The league-wide rush on free agent signings has left the market bare of most of the top names, and so Zaidi and company will now have to explore the trade market (and possibly make some tough decisions on trading top prospects) in order to acquire another big-ticket star….if one is even necessarily available.

Speculatively, the Giants could try to wield their payroll space in a different manner, perhaps by offering a deal for both a star player and an undesirable contract on a team looking to cut spending.  With over three months until Opening Day, there’s plenty of time left for the Giants to still make moves, and yet it’s hard to imagine they can make an addition anywhere near Correa’s level.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Originally posted at 2:05am.

Mets Showing Trade Interest In Liam Hendriks

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The Mets are among the clubs that have contacted the White Sox regarding Liam Hendriks, reports Michael Mayer of Metsmerized (Twitter link). Reports emerged a couple weeks ago that Chicago had been discussing their star closer with other teams, though the identity of those clubs wasn’t clear.

Certainly, the Mets aren’t the only team that’d be interested in prying Hendriks from Chicago. The 33-year-old is one of the sport’s top late-game weapons. Hendriks broke out with the A’s in 2019, tossing 85 frames with a 1.80 ERA to secure his first All-Star selection. He’d surely have earned another had there been a Midsummer Classic in 2020, as he finished ninth in AL Cy Young balloting during the abbreviated season thanks to a 1.78 mark through 25 1/3 frames.

After that season, the right-hander made the move to Chicago. Hendriks inked a $54MM guarantee with the White Sox, with Chicago gambling he’d maintain his late-career breakout form. He’s done just that, posting a 2.66 ERA over 127 frames with the Sox. After posting a 2.54 ERA in year one, he followed up with a 2.81 mark through 57 2/3 innings this past season. Hendriks earned All-Star selections in both seasons and struck out an excellent 36.2% of batters faced in 2022. He missed a few weeks in the middle of the year with a forearm strain — an alarming-sounding diagnosis for a pitcher — but he returned seemingly no worse for wear, striking out 35.4% of opponents while sitting north of 97 MPH on his heater in the second half.

Any contender looking for bullpen help could check in with Chicago general manager Rick Hahn. Hendriks would be an impact addition to the late innings for any club, and the Mets are no exception. New York has one of the handful of relievers who might be better than Hendriks to pitch the ninth inning after re-signing Edwin Díaz to a five-year free agent contract. They agreed to terms with Adam Ottavino on a two-year deal this afternoon, and they’ve also brought in David Robertson from outside the organization. The Mets don’t necessarily need more bullpen help, but they’ve shown no qualms about going after high-end talent no matter the cost.

That’s reflected in their astronomical spending, the likes of which MLB has never seen before. New York has a 2023 player payroll projected by Roster Resource around $351MM. Their luxury tax number sits around $363MM, a staggering $130MM higher than next year’s base tax threshold. That lines them up for a projected tax bill of $92.4MM, which would put their total player spending around $443.4MM.

Additional pickups would obviously add to that figure. Hendriks is guaranteed $14MM in 2023, and his contract contains a $15MM club option for the ’24 season. That comes with a matching $15MM buyout, which would be distributed in $1.5MM installments through 2033. That’d be a small benefit, but the only incentive for the White Sox not to exercise the option would be if Hendriks suffers an injury that takes him out of action for most or all of the 2024 campaign or has such a dramatic drop in performance his spot on the roster would be in jeopardy.

If Hendriks is traded, that option vests. Hendriks would then be guaranteed $29MM over the next two seasons. Matt Gelb of the Athletic has previously reported that under the new CBA, for luxury tax purposes, traded players on multi-year contracts see the average annual value of their deal recalculated at the time of the trade. In Hendriks’ case, he’d be pegged at $29MM over two years — a $14.5MM AAV for an acquiring team. If not traded, his deal counts for $18MM against the White Sox’s tax ledger in 2023, as it was technically a three-year, $54MM guarantee at signing.

For the Mets, taking on a $14.5MM AAV would come with an additional $13.05MM in taxes, as they’re taxed at a 90% clip on all future spending. Topping $27MM in actual money annually for a reliever is something virtually no other team would do, but New York seemingly can’t be counted out of any move at this point.

Of course, there’s no indication the Mets and White Sox have made much or any progress. To this point, the exercise is mostly theoretical. New York would face plenty of competition if the Sox commit to moving Hendriks, who’s better than any available free agent reliever. Chicago could certainly elect to hang onto him entirely, since they’re working to rebound from an 81-81 showing to compete in the AL Central. The White Sox agreed to terms with Andrew Benintendi on a five-year, $75MM deal last week. If his salaries are evenly distributed, that’d push their projected payroll to $193MM, which would be right in line with this past season’s franchise-record mark.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

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The Rangers made Michael Conforto an offer over the summer and have maintained interest in the free-agent outfielder throughout the offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. That interest has led to recent talks with agent Scott Boras, who said earlier in the offseason that Conforto was eyeing a two-year contract with an opt-out opportunity after the first season.

Texas isn’t alone in courting Conforto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that both the Blue Jays and Mets are still showing interest as well. (The Mets, of course, are the only team for which Conforto has ever played.) Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies checked in but are not seen as a likely landing spot. Saunders lists the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers as teams more prominently involved in the Conforto bidding. Seattle and Houston were linked to Conforto earlier in the offseason, though the Astros’ reunion with Michael Brantley seemingly takes them out of the Conforto mix.

The Rangers are the most commonly cited suitor for Conforto, though that hardly ensures that he’ll be suiting up at Globe Life Field in 2023. Still, Texas has had a clear need for at least one outfielder all season but has thus far focused its free-agent and trade pursuits on pitchers. Conforto, 30 in March, would be a risky investment on a multi-year deal but would come with substantial upside; the former first-round pick posted a combined .265/.369/.495 batting line with 97 home runs, 86 doubles, three triples, a 12.7% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20.

Conforto’s platform year before reaching free agency, however, was disappointing. He followed that strong four-year run with a more pedestrian .232/.344/.384 batting line in his age-28 season in 2021. Conforto still rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, banking on a team being willing to forfeit a draft pick based on the strength of his overall track record. That didn’t happen prior to last winter’s lockout, though, and Conforto went on to suffer an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery in the spring. Despite interest from the Astros and the apparent offer from the Rangers, Conforto did not sign over the summer, instead ostensibly preferring to wait for an offseason deal and a fully healthy return to baseball. (Had he played last summer, it’s believed he’d have been limited to designated hitter duties.)

Rosenthal suggests that some teams are concerned about Conforto’s throwing in the wake of that surgery, though he’s currently throwing from a distance of 150 feet. For the Rangers, Conforto could potentially slot into left field, given Adolis Garcia’s presence in right field. That might help to mitigate some concerns about his arm strength — if Texas even has any at the moment. Rangers left fielders were far and away the worst in MLB last season, batting a combined .186/.253/.255. Every one of those rate stats ranked dead-last in the Majors, as did the resulting 47 wRC+. Texas, incredibly, gave 13 different players a look in left field last season.

While the Rangers stand as an obvious and perhaps the best fit for Conforto, his other reported suitors are all sensible landing spots, to varying degrees. The Blue Jays have a nearly all-right-handed lineup and have seen Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offensive contributions wane in recent seasons; Gurriel still hit for a strong .291 average in 2022, but his power vanished and his defensive grades have never been particularly strong. GM Ross Atkins said just yesterday that his focus was shifting to upgrading the offense — ideally by adding a lefty bat who could slot into the outfield. Conforto checks a lot of boxes for them. As with the Rangers, Conforto could likely slot into left field with Toronto, lessening potential concerns about his throwing arm.

The Mets, meanwhile, already have a crowded roster and a bloated payroll, but owner Steve Cohen and GM Billy Eppler seem undeterred by either of those factors. Conforto could factor into Buck Showalter’s lineup as a left fielder and designated hitter, perhaps pushing Daniel Vogelbach into more of a bench role than the platoon DH role for which he’s currently set. It might not be an especially clean fit, but the Mets perhaps feel they’d be a deeper and better team by adding Conforto, which could well bump Darin Ruf (who struggled following his acquisition over the summer) or high-priced catcher James McCann from the roster.

The Cubs’ outfield is largely set, with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Conforto to join the mix and rotate through the outfield corners and designated hitter. Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are ideal fits, but it’s nevertheless notable that both have looked into a potential match with Conforto. Both teams need center fielders more than a corner outfielder, however. Colorado could push Randal Grichuk to center, but he’s generally graded out as a better defender in right field. Miami, meanwhile, already has a pair of corner outfielders — Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler — in search of a rebound, though the latter figures to spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter in 2023.

Between a fair number of teams with interest and this offseason’s rash of free-agent deals that allow players to opt back into the market as early as next offseason, Conforto’s chances of reaching that goal of a multi-year deal with an opt-out seems attainable.

Steve Cohen Discusses Mets’ Pursuit Of Carlos Correa: “We Got There Late”

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Just before Carlos Correa signed his 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants, the Mets made an attempt to try land the star shortstop.  Mets owner Steve Cohen shed more light on that pursuit in an interview with Jon Heyman of the New York Post, as Cohen said that he contacted Correa’s agent Scott Boras an offer of roughly $300MM.  By that point, however, the Giants and Correa’s camp were already deep enough into negotiations that Boras and company didn’t want to turn back.

As Cohen simply put it, “we got there late” on Correa’s market.  “We thought maybe he might fall to us….He’s a great leader and a good guy.  He could play third base.  And he’s a great defender.”

Position changes have been floated for all of Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson in various permutations by several teams this winter, as even at the very top of the shortstop market, clubs creatively explored ways to fit these players into a lineup even if another good shortstop was already on the roster.  In New York, of course, Francisco Lindor is already locked into the shortstop role through the 2031 season, and thus Correa would’ve had to move to the hot corner.

Lindor’s presence made the Mets something of a bystander on the shortstop market, but when Correa lingered on the market, Cohen checked in with Boras to see if something could be done.  Eduardo Escobar (signed to a two-year, $20MM deal just last offseason) is the Mets’ current third baseman, but if Correa had been signed, Escobar would’ve presumably become an overqualified utility infielder, or perhaps a trade chip.

It’s also fair to say that Cohen’s attention might’ve been busy elsewhere, preventing him from making an earlier bid on Correa.  New York has already re-signed Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, and brought Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, and Omar Narvaez into the fold during an extraordinary free agent splurge.  The result is a payroll that sits at roughly $343.56MM, and a luxury tax number of $356.3MM — both records in MLB history.

“No one likes to spend money.  But this is the price” of doing business, Cohen said, as the Mets want to win but aren’t interested in trading from their farm system.  If this means operating at a loss in order to chase a World Series, that is fine in Cohen’s view.  Also, the owner noted that the club also had a lot of holes to fill (mostly on the pitching staff) given its own extensive free agent class.  While Nimmo and Diaz were retained, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, and Joely Rodriguez have all signed elsewhere.

“My team is good.  But it isn’t that much better than last year.  If you want a team that’s good, this is what it costs.  What are you going to do?” Cohen asked rhetorically.

As much as there doesn’t appear to be a limit on New York’s spending, Cohen did say that Correa’s market conditions played a role in the Mets’ interest, as he was going to pursue a signing “that made sense…and not get crazy.”  The fact that a $300MM offer on top of the Mets’ other spending doesn’t qualify as “crazy” is yet another eye-popping example of how Cohen is redefining baseball’s payroll limits, and yet “I’ve been dealing with big numbers for so long these numbers don’t scare me at all.  It’s not like I’m not respectful about what these other teams have to deal with.”

Mets Sign Kodai Senga

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TODAY: The Mets officially announced Senga’s deal.

DECEMBER 10: The Mets have agreed to a five-year, $75MM deal with right-hander Kodai Senga, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (Twitter links).  Senga’s contract also has no-trade protection and an opt-out clause following the 2025 season, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).  The deal will become official when Senga passes a physical.  Senga is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

The contract figure exactly matches the projection from MLBTR, as Senga ranked 11th on the list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  There is no further posting fee involved in the Mets’ costs, since Senga became a full free agent after exercising an opt-out clause in his contract with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Senga turns 30 in January, and he leaves the Hawks after 11 outstanding seasons.  The righty has a 2.59 ERA, 28.22% strikeout rate, and 9.33% walk rate over 1089 innings at Japan’s highest level.  Senga’s four-pitch arsenal is highlighted by an excellent splitter and a fastball that routinely hits the upper-90s.  Scouting reports indicate that Senga’s control is sometimes inconsistent, but otherwise, many pundits feel his stuff can translate quite well to North American baseball.

It was just over a year ago that Senga signed a new five-year deal with the Hawks, but with the important proviso of the opt-out clause that he was widely expected to use, assuming he amassed the necessary service time needed for full free agency.  That was a key step in the process, as the Hawks (unlike several other NPB teams) don’t make their players available for the NPB/MLB posting system.  In discussing his plan to move to North American baseball, Senga said last year that “as a ballplayer, it’s essential to live my life always aiming higher,” and it can be argued that he more than achieved his goals in Japanese baseball.  The right-hander’s resume includes five Japan Series titles with the Hawks, three NPB All-Star appearances, two placements on the Pacific League’s Best Nine team, and (outside of league play) an Olympic gold medal with Japan’s baseball team in 2021.

Between Senga’s potential and the overall demand for pitching this offseason, it isn’t surprising that multiple teams were monitoring his market.  The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, and Padres were the other clubs known to have interest, and agent Joel Wolfe implied that as many as a dozen MLB teams had checked in on his client.  Multiple five- and six-year offers were on the table for Senga, and while he elected for a five-year option from the Mets, the opt-out allows Senga the possibility of re-entering the market and possibly landing extra years and more money as he enters his age-33 season.

Heading into the offseason, the Mets faced the challenge of a large free agent class that included a star closer (Edwin Diaz) and most of the bullpen altogether, their starting center fielder (Brandon Nimmo), and the majority of their starting rotation in the form of Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt.  However, with the Winter Meetings only just passed, New York has already addressed most of those holes by re-signing Diaz and Nimmo, and replacing that trio of starters with Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, and now Senga.  If that wasn’t enough, the Mets further bolstered the relief corps by signing David Robertson and acquiring Brooks Raley in a trade from the Rays.

There wasn’t any doubt that owner Steve Cohen was prepared to keep spending in order to keep his 101-game winning team in line to be World Series contenders.  However, the spending spree has just continued to reach record levels, as Roster Resource projects the Mets for a 2023 payroll of roughly $334.68MM, and a luxury tax number of just over $349.5MM.

This not only dwarfs the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, it even soars past the fourth and highest ($293MM) tier of the CBT.  The fourth tier was instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement as a further penalty for excessive spending, and was unofficially nicknamed the “Steve Cohen Tax” given how the owner made no secret of his intentions to heavily increase payroll.  Since this is the Mets’ second consecutive year of tax overage, they’ll face a two-time repeater penalty, as well as a 90 percent overage tax on any dollar spent beyond the $233MM mark.  This works out to around $104.85MM in tax penalty — according to Fangraphs, 11 teams currently aren’t slated to spend more than $104.85MM on their entire 2023 payrolls.

With the Mets already in uncharted financial territory, even more big moves could possibly be in store for Cohen and GM Billy Eppler.  Since the luxury tax doesn’t appear to be any more than a speed bump to the Amazins’ plans, the club might continue to add high-priced talent, and not even bother with trying to get under the $293MM threshold for any kind of mild lessening of its CBT bill.

On paper, the bullpen looks like it could use some more reinforcement, and catcher also looks like a weaker position except top prospect Francisco Alvarez is expected to get more big league playing time in 2023.  The rotation now looks completely set with Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana, and Carlos Carrasco making up the starting five.  Speculatively, the Mets might even feel comfortable enough in their depth to shop one of their backup starters (i.e. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Elieser Hernandez) in trade talks with a pitching-needy team.  Or, given the older ages and some of the injury uncertainty surrounding the Mets’ starters, New York might also simply opt to retain as much pitching depth as possible.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mets Discussing James McCann In Trade Talks

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The Mets are discussing catcher James McCann in trades, reports Andy Martino of SNY. No specific clubs are mentioned as having interest and it doesn’t appear anything is close, but the discussions are notable nonetheless.

Going into yesterday, the club already had three catchers on their 40-man roster going into yesterday, with McCann joined by Tomas Nido and Francisco Álvarez. Last night, the club agreed to terms with Omar Narváez, adding a fourth catcher into the mix. That created immediate speculation that the club would look to move one of their other receivers, with McCann a fairly logical choice.

McCann, 33 in June, had a strong two-year run with the White Sox over 2019 and 2020, hitting .276/.334/.474 for a wRC+ of 114. He parlayed that into a four-year, $40.6MM deal with the Mets, but has taken a dip since then. He hit .232/.294/.349 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 80 and then dipped further to .195/.257/.282 this year for a wRC+ of 59. He also made multiple trips to the IL and only got into 61 games. Defensively, he’s been a bit below average in his Mets tenure, posting a -3 Defensive Runs Saved and a -0.8 from FanGraphs’ framing metric.

McCann’s deal was slightly backloaded, as he got a $600K signing bonus followed by salaries of $8MM in the first two seasons followed by $12MM in each of the two seasons to come. That leaves two years and $24MM still to be paid out. Given his underperformance, it makes sense for the club to see if any team is willing to take it off their hands.

They don’t really need the cost savings, since money seems to be no object under owner Steve Cohen. Roster Resource pegs their current payroll at $344MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $356MM. That’s miles beyond the top luxury tax tier of $293MM. Since the club is a second-time payor, they’ll pay a 90% tax on any spending beyond that $293MM figure. Given that obvious willingness to spend, they don’t need to pinch pennies by shedding McCann’s contract, but it’s worth pointing out that those high taxes mean shedding a contract would come with double savings. McCann’s contract comes with an annual CBT hit of $10.15MM, since it’s based on the average annual value of the deal. A 90% tax on that means $9.135MM, so moving McCann and and his $12MM salary would actually save the Mets almost $20MM.

Regardless, it’s unlikely that any club would want to take on that salary in full, given his disappointing performance over the past two seasons. The catching market no longer has the most exciting free agents like Willson Contreras, Christian Vázquez and others, but there are still a few names left. Teams like the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Astros, Giants, Pirates, Padres, Tigers, Rays, Angels, Marlins and Red Sox either have reported interest in catching upgrades or make sense for one. They might look into McCann but they could also just sign someone like Gary Sánchez, Roberto Pérez or Tucker Barnhart. Those players would likely be limited to one-year deals at significantly lower salary than what McCann is set to make.

If the Mets are truly motivated to get McCann out of the way, they would likely have to include something else in the deal or just eat a portion of his salary. Álvarez is one of the most highly-regarded prospects in the game but is considered a bat-first catcher at this point. It’s possible the club could carry three catchers with Álvarez frequently slotting in as the designated hitter. However, four catchers seems rather untenable, meaning that McCann and Nido will likely see their names in trade rumors until a deal comes together.

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