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Poll: Can The Mets Hang On To A Playoff Spot?

By Nick Deeds | August 18, 2025 at 4:24pm CDT

It’s been a rough few weeks for the Mets. While they managed to take two of three in their series against the Mariners this weekend, it was their first series win since they swept the Giants all the way back on the weekend of July 25. Since then, New York has gone just 4-14 and not only fallen five games back of the Phillies in the NL East, but is getting challenged by the insurgent Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. Despite that brutal stretch of play in recent weeks, this isn’t exactly a new phenomenon. While the club was at one point up 5.5 games in the division, that was nearly two months ago at this point. They’ve gone 21-34 since then, good for a .318 winning percentage that falls between the full-season figures posted by the White Sox (.355) and Rockies (.282).

That makes the final six weeks of the regular season more important for the Mets than their fans could’ve imagined during their strong first half. The question for the Mets is less about the possibility of an NL East title and a bye through the Wild Card round at this point, and more about if they’ll be able to squeak into the postseason at all. The club attempted to break into what, at the time, looked to be a fairly wide-open race for a bye to the NLDS when they made a number of aggressive, buy-side trades in the run-up to the trade deadline.

Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto joined Edwin Diaz at the back of what was expected to become the most fearsome bullpen in the league, and Cedric Mullins was brought in to plug the one hole on the team’s roster. The results of those trades have been mixed to this point, Soto (8 1/3 scoreless innings) and Rogers (1.93 ERA in 9 1/3 innings) have both excelled to this point, but Helsley has struggled to an ugly 7.11 ERA in eight appearances for the Mets so far, with four additional unearned runs allowed as well. Meanwhile, Mullins has a paltry .255 on-base percentage with a 29.1% strikeout rate since arriving in the Big Apple.

Perhaps the failings of Helsley and Mullins in their first few games with the team could be overlooked if the rest of the team was performing better, but the club’s internal core hasn’t exactly impressed lately either. Only six teams in baseball have scored fewer runs than the Mets since June 13, and while the offense has picked things up in recent weeks (124 wRC+ in August) their run prevention has taken a nosedive. Only four teams (Marlins, Pirates, Nationals, and Rockies) have allowed more runs to score than the Mets since the start of August, and the decision not to bring in a starter at the deadline is looking particularly disastrous given the club’s rotation has put together a brutal 6.23 ERA in the weeks following the end of trade season.

Bleak as things have looked in recent weeks, however, that shouldn’t be taken to mean there’s no reason for optimism. After all, the Mets are still in playoff position even after all of those struggles. Only Cincinnati has a record above .500 among NL clubs not currently in playoff position, meaning the Mets are in a much more comfortable spot than they would be if they were in the AL, where teams like the Royals and Guardians are sticking around the periphery of the Wild Card race with solid records. While the Reds (36-30 since the start of June) have looked good lately thanks to a fantastic rotation, their offense hasn’t looked especially threatening at any point in the year. Mets superstars Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are both firing on all cylinders offensively in recent weeks, by contrast, and that could help stave off Cincinnati unless the Reds’ bats get going.

Even if the Reds stick around in the race long-term, it’s at least possible that another team in the NL playoff picture could start to struggle. The Cubs have scored the fewest runs in baseball since July 1 after starting the year as an offensive juggernaut. With pitchers like Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd reaching uncharted territory in terms of workload and a big series against Milwaukee this week, their currently stable position in the NL playoff picture could look much less secure in a hurry. The Phillies, meanwhile, lost Zack Wheeler for an uncertain amount of time over the weekend. While Aaron Nola returned from the shelf to replace him in the rotation, his first start back (six earned runs surrendered in 2 1/3 innings to the lowly Nationals) didn’t exactly inspire confidence.

How do MLBTR readers view the Mets’ hopes of making a second consecutive postseason appearance this year? Will they be able to hold on despite their recent struggles, or will the rest of the NL playoff field manage to push them out? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Mets Be A Playoff Team This Year?
Yes, they'll make the postseason. 60.92% (2,965 votes)
No, they'll be at home in October. 39.08% (1,902 votes)
Total Votes: 4,867
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Mets

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Mets Place Paul Blackburn On Release Waivers

By Darragh McDonald | August 18, 2025 at 1:25pm CDT

The Mets have requested unconditional release waivers on right-hander Paul Blackburn, according to Mike Puma of The New York Post. Blackburn was designated for assignment on Saturday when the Mets called up Nolan McLean.

A release was a likely outcome once Blackburn was bumped from the 40-man roster. With the deadline having passed, a trade was not a possibility. The Mets could have opted for outright waivers but Blackburn has five-plus years of service time, meaning he has the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining his remaining salary commitments. The Mets have skipped that formality and put Blackburn on release waivers instead.

It doesn’t seem especially likely that any club would claim him. Blackburn is making $4.05MM this year, which leaves about $900K still to be paid out. That’s not a massive sum relative to season-long MLB payrolls but would be a decent amount for just a few weeks of work. Blackburn has spent most of this season on the injured list and has a 6.85 earned run average in the seven appearances he has made, which should tamp down the interest.

If he clears waivers, the Mets will remain on the hook for the money. Any other club could sign Blackburn and would only have to pay him the prorated version of the $760K league minimum salary. That would be about $150K or so if Blackburn gets a spot somewhere quick and holds it for the rest of the year, far less than the amount required to claim him off waivers. Any amount paid by another club would be subtracted from what the Mets pay.

As mentioned, Blackburn has been injured and not terribly effective this year, but the sample size is small. Injury absences are nothing new for him, as he’s actually never even thrown 112 innings in a big league season. However, the results have occasionally been decent. From 2022 to 2024, he tossed a combined 290 1/3 innings with a 4.43 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate.

His 2025 hasn’t been at that level but team may overlook that. Adding to a roster is tough now that the trade deadline has passed, yet teams always need arms as injuries pop up. Blackburn has some decent results on his track record and will be essentially free.

Photo courtesy of Jason Parkhurst, Imagn Images

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New York Mets Transactions Paul Blackburn

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Mets To Designate Paul Blackburn For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | August 15, 2025 at 10:55pm CDT

The Mets are going to designate right-hander Paul Blackburn for assignment, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. That will be the corresponding move for the promotion of Nolan McLean, a move that was previously reported.

Blackburn was acquired by the Mets at last year’s trade deadline. At the time, the Mets had lost both Kodai Senga and Christian Scott to the injured list and suddenly needed a bit of rotation depth. He made five starts for the Mets before he himself required a stint on the injured list. He hit the IL due to a right hand contusion. While on the IL, it was reported that he was dealing with a spinal fluid leak in his back. He didn’t make it back off the IL. He underwent a cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leak repair procedure in October.

Despite the rough landing in Queens, the Mets tendered him a contract for 2025, his final arb season before reaching free agency. The Mets seemed interested in stockpiling rotation depth. They signed Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning, adding to a rotation mix which already included Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Blackburn. The Mets and Blackburn avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.05MM salary for this year.

Unfortunately, it has turned into another season marred by injuries and the Mets seemingly never had much interest in putting him back into the rotation. He likely would have been off the roster long ago if not for other injuries, both to himself and others.

Blackburn started the season on the IL due to inflammation in his right knee. He was rehabbing throughout May, before being reinstated from the injured list in early June. By the middle of June, there was reporting that the Mets were fielding trade interest in Blackburn. At the time, they had a rotation of Senga, Peterson, Holmes, Canning and Megill, with both Montas and Manaea on rehab assignments. Blackburn appeared to be surplus to requirements. But moments after that report came out, Senga got injured and landed on the IL. Megill went on the shelf not long after.

That opened a window for Blackburn to stick around, but then he himself hit the IL again in early July due to a right shoulder impingement. He began a rehab assignment in the middle of July and got up to five innings by his second outing. But the Mets didn’t have a rotation spot for him behind Senga, Manaea, Holmes, Peterson and Montas. They let Blackburn throw a few more rehab starts, perhaps because they just wanted to keep him around in case someone else got injured.

In recent days, Montas was moved to the bullpen to open a rotation spot for McLean. Blackburn was reinstated from the IL and put in the bullpen as well. He tossed five innings of long relief on Wednesday after Peterson couldn’t get through the fourth inning. Now, he’s been bumped off the 40-man entirely.

This move ends a strange Mets tenure for Blackburn. He was technically with the club for over a year but only made 12 appearances in orange and blue. It often seemed like the Mets were on the verge of nudging him out the door before it finally happened.

He now heads into DFA limbo. With the trade deadline having passed, he will have to be placed on waivers. There is just under $1MM left to be paid out on his salary. His frequent injuries likely hurt his chances of being claimed, though he has had some decent results when healthy. With the Athletics in 2022 and 2023, he tossed a combined 215 innings with a 4.35 earned run average. His 20.7% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 44.5% ground ball rate were all fairly close to league averages.

Those cromulent results surely attracted the Mets in the first place but he wasn’t spared the injury bug even in those campaigns. Issues with his right middle finger prevented him from surpassing 115 innings in either of those seasons.

Still, decent starting pitching is hard to find after the deadline, so perhaps Blackburn will find some interest. If he clears waivers, the Mets will remain on the hook for the rest of his salary. At that point, another club could sign him and pay him the prorated portion of the league minimum salary for any time spent on the roster. That amount would be subtracted from what the Mets pay.

Photo courtesy of Jason Parkhurst, Imagn Images

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New York Mets Transactions Nolan McLean Paul Blackburn

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Rafael Ortega Opts Out Of Mets Deal

By Steve Adams | August 14, 2025 at 10:51am CDT

Veteran outfielder Rafael Ortega triggered an opt-out clause in his minor league deal with the Mets and was granted his release, MLBTR has learned. He’s a free agent who can sign with any club.

The 34-year-old Ortega signed a minor league deal with the Mets in the offseason, kicking off his second stint with the team. He also spent the 2023 campaign with the Mets, hitting .219/.341/.272 in 136 big league plate appearances and .230/.379/.398 in 140 Triple-A plate appearances.

Ortega has picked up more than three years of major league service time and played in parts of eight big league seasons. He’s a career .245/.322/.349 hitter in 1301 plate appearances as a big leaguer, highlighted by a 2021-22 run with the Cubs that saw him slash .265/.344/.408 (110 wRC+) in semi-regular action (701 plate appearances over 221 games).

Ortega has spent the majority of the current season on the injured list due to a significant hamstring strain. He went on a low-level rehab stint in late July and was activated on the Triple-A roster earlier this month. He started only four of the nine games for the Mets’ Triple-A Syracuse club since his reinstatement, however, and received 18 total plate appearances in that time. Top outfield prospect Carson Benge’s recent promotion to Syracuse would surely further reduce Ortega’s playing opportunities, so he’ll return to the open market in search of a new landing spot.

In parts of 10 seasons at the Triple-A level, Ortega is a .286/.370/.446 hitter. He’s a left-handed bat who can handle all three outfield positions. He’ll be an option for any club looking for some experienced outfield depth.

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New York Mets Transactions Rafael Ortega

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MLBTR Podcast: Walk-Year Performances, Roman Anthony’s Extension, And More!

By Darragh McDonald | August 13, 2025 at 10:37am CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The August Edition of MLBTR’s 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings (1:05)
  • The upcoming free agency of Dylan Cease (2:15)
  • The upcoming free agency of Brandon Woodruff (5:35)
  • The upcoming opt-out of Lucas Giolito (12:50)
  • The upcoming opt-out of Edwin Díaz (18:40)
  • The upcoming free agency of Bo Bichette (24:25)
  • The Red Sox signing Roman Anthony to an extension (31:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Should Tigers fans be nervous? Is the club worse off going into next year? Should they trade Tarik Skubal this winter? (38:55)
  • The Mets didn’t trade Mark Vientos at the deadline and Pete Alonso is trending towards opting out. Will the Mets move on from Alonso this time? (51:05)
  • The teams that are considering six-man rotations, should they piggyback two of them in one game? (57:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Sifting Through The Trade Deadline Deals – listen here
  • Megapod Trade Deadline Preview – listen here
  • David Robertson, Trade Chips For The O’s and A’s, And What The Rangers Could Do – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Eric Hartline, Imagn Images

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2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers MLB Trade Rumors Podcast New York Mets Bo Bichette Brandon Woodruff Dylan Cease Edwin Diaz Lucas Giolito Roman Anthony

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Mets To Promote Nolan McLean

By Steve Adams | August 13, 2025 at 10:09am CDT

The Mets will call up top pitching prospect Nolan McLean to make his MLB debut this Saturday, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. He’ll step into the rotation spot vacated by Frankie Montas’ move to the bullpen. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported earlier this morning that righty Paul Blackburn was also headed to the bullpen when he’s ready to be reinstated from the injured list, setting the stage for either McLean or fellow prospect Brandon Sproat to make his debut.

As we noted yesterday when the Mets moved Montas to the ’pen, the Saturday start aligns far better with McLean’s turn in the Triple-A rotation than with that of Sproat. McLean has also simply outpitched Sproat this season, though both well-regarded prospects have excelled recently.

The timing of the move likely isn’t a coincidence. Saturday marks the first day on the calendar where there’s not enough time remaining for players to accrue enough service to exhaust their rookie eligibility. By waiting until Saturday to promote McLean, the Mets have ensured that he’ll still qualify as a rookie next season and therefore still be able to earn the Mets potential future draft picks via the league’s Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) program. In all likelihood, McLean is just one of several top prospects around the league who’ll be promoted after Aug. 15.

McLean, 24, was the Mets’ third-round pick in 2023. He’s rated as one of the system’s more promising young arms since that selection, but his stock has exploded in 2025 as he’s ripped through Double-A and Triple-A lineups. McLean has pitched a combined 113 2/3 innings between those two levels and compiled a tidy 2.45 ERA while punching out 27.2% of his opponents. His 10.7% walk rate is still too high, but his huge 54.7% ground-ball rate can help to erase a few of those free passes by way of the double-play ball.

This year’s terrific run has not only vaulted McLean toward the top of the Mets’ in-house prospect lists — it’s made him a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport. He sits 37th among all big league prospects at MLB.com, 40th at Baseball America and 53rd at FanGraphs on each outlet’s post-deadline reranking of the sport’s top young talents.

The 6’2″, 215-pound McLean is an Oklahoma State product whose athleticism draws plenty of praise. He was a two-sport star in high school, playing both baseball and football, and he was a two-way player at OSU, where he was a third baseman and outfielder in addition to his work on the mound. He’s since dialed in only on pitching and experienced an uptick in velocity, now sitting 95 mph with a four-seamer that can climb to 98 mph when he needs to reach back for a bit extra. MLB.com’s report on McLean calls his sweeper a “monster” of a pitch with “elite” spin rate. He’s sitting 85.5 mph with that pitch and also mixing in a sinker, cutter and seldom-used changeup.

Because McLean will retain rookie eligibility going into next year, he could earn the Mets a draft pick down the line. If McLean were to win National League Rookie of the Year or finish top-three in NL MVP voting next season, the Mets would gain that pick. Even if McLean doesn’t hit either of those goals, the fact that he’ll be a top-100 prospect who accrued a full year of service as a rookie opens a three-year window for him to net the Mets a compensatory pick based on award voting. If McLean were to land any top-three finish in Cy Young or MVP voting before reaching arbitration, the Mets would still gain a pick. Players can only net their team one pick under the league’s PPI program, but the timing of his promotion means McLean could do so at any point from 2026-28.

Setting aside the PPI aspect of the promotion, McLean’s promotion comes at a time when he cannot accrue a year of service this season. He’ll be controllable for at least six full years beyond the current campaign — potentially more than that, depending on whether he’s optioned at any point in the future. The earliest he could become a free agent would be after the 2031 season, and the earliest McLean could qualify for arbitration would be following the 2028 season.

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New York Mets Newsstand Transactions Brandon Sproat Frankie Montas Nolan McLean Paul Blackburn

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Mets Move Frankie Montas To Bullpen

By Steve Adams | August 12, 2025 at 3:10pm CDT

The Mets will move struggling right-hander Frankie Montas from the rotation to the bullpen, manager Carlos Mendoza announced Tuesday (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). The team has not yet announced who will start in place of Montas on Saturday. The Mets have righty Paul Blackburn on a minor league rehab assignment, but Mendoza indicated that Blackburn will make at least one more rehab appearance and is not an option to step into Montas’ rotation spot this weekend.

Notably, Saturday is the first day that prospects can be promoted to the major leagues but still fall shy of the requisite 45 days on the active roster that exhausts a player’s rookie status. In other words, beginning Saturday, the Mets will be able to turn to a top prospect like Nolan McLean or Brandon Sproat without burning either pitcher’s rookie eligibility. That’s key for teams with top-100 prospects, as promoting those prospects early in the 2026 season can then net the teams a compensatory draft pick, based on Rookie of the Year voting.

It’s been a miserable season for the veteran Montas, who inked a surprisingly strong two-year, $34MM contract with an opt-out provision over the winter. That opt-out is a moot point by now, with the 32-year-old righty being relegated to bullpen work after logging a 6.38 ERA in his first eight appearances of the year (36 2/3 innings).

Montas began the season on the injured list due to a lat strain and didn’t pitch in the majors until late June. He’s allowed four or more earned runs in four of seven starts and has yet to complete six innings in an outing. Setting aside a solid season debut in which he tossed five shutout frames, Montas has been clobbered for a 7.39 ERA and yielded an average of 2.27 homers per nine innings pitched in six starts and one three-inning relief appearance (his most recent outing).

It appears that Montas won’t get the opportunity to improve on that rotation performance anytime soon. It’s difficult to fathom a scenario where he’d turn down the $17MM player option he’s facing at season’s end, so it’s in the Mets’ best interest to get him back on track, but their recent play doesn’t afford them the luxury of keeping a struggling veteran in the rotation while he tries to sort things out.

The freefalling Mets, who’ve lost seven in a row, currently have Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes and David Peterson in the rotation. Sproat and McLean stand as the two most logical replacements. (Fellow top prospect Jonah Tong was only just promoted to Triple-A and has yet to throw a pitch there.) Sproat last pitched Aug. 7 and would be on eight days’ rest, whereas McLean pitched on the 10th. Based on their current schedules, McLean seems like the more straightforward option, and he’s pitched more effectively this season anyhow.

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New York Mets Brandon Sproat Frankie Montas Jonah Tong Nolan McLean Paul Blackburn

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Brewers, Julian Merryweather Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | August 8, 2025 at 1:50pm CDT

The Brewers and right-handed reliever Julian Merryweather are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Merryweather had been with the Mets but opted out of his minor league deal earlier in the week. The Warner Sports Management client will report to Triple-A Nashville for the time being.

Merryweather, 33, was a key piece of the division-rival Cubs’ bullpen back in 2023, when he posted career-bests in terms of innings pitched (72), ERA (3.38), strikeout rate (32.3%) and holds (17). He’s pitched just 33 2/3 big league frames since, due in large part to health troubles. Shoulder and knee injuries limited Merryweather to 15 MLB innings and just 6 2/3 innings of rehab work in 2024. He pitched 18 2/3 innings with the Cubs this year but turned in career-worst strikeout and walk rates while working with a fastball that was down more than two miles per hour from 2023.

The Cubs designated Merryweather for assignment and released him in May. He signed with the Mets a bit more than a week later and has since pitched 12 Triple-A innings with a 4.50 ERA, a strong 28.8% strikeout rate and an alarming 17.3% walk rate.

A former fifth-round pick by Cleveland, Merryweather stands 6’4″ and is listed at 215 pounds. He’s long possessed plus velocity and bat-missing abilities, but command and especially durability have frequently worked against him. He crossed five years of MLB service while in DFA limbo earlier this year despite having logged only 158 1/3 innings in the majors — a testament to how much time he’s spent on the injured list due to a host of ailments (including knee, shoulder, elbow, oblique, abdominal injuries). He’s still sitting 96 mph on his four-seamer this year, but that’s down considerably from 2023’s average of 98.1 mph.

Milwaukee has a track record of rehabbing relievers or even coaxing new levels of performance from previously nondescript bullpen arms. If they can get Merryweather back on track, the Brewers could control him via arbitration into next season, but for now he’ll simply be a depth option for a bullpen that sits 12th in the majors with a 3.65 ERA over the past month (and 16th overall in 2025, with a 3.97 mark).

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Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets Transactions Julian Merryweather

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MLBTR Podcast: Sifting Through The Trade Deadline Deals

By Darragh McDonald | August 6, 2025 at 11:56pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to go over the various deadline dealings, including…

  • The Padres acquiring Mason Miller, JP Sears, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Laureano, Nestor Cortes, Freddy Fermin and Will Wagner, while not trading Dylan Cease nor Robert Suarez (1:20)
  • The Athletics sending out Miller and Sears, getting a pile of prospects, headlined by Leo De Vries (25:20)
  • The Twins trading a bunch of rentals but also Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland and Carlos Correa (31:50)
  • The Astros taking on Correa despite previously trying to avoid the competitive balance tax (50:05)
  • The Phillies’ deadline (58:25)
  • The Mariners acquiring Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez from the Diamondbacks (1:00:40)
  • The Diamondbacks trading Merrill Kelly but not Zac Gallen (1:07:45)
  • The Rangers’ deadline (1:16:00)
  • The Mets acquiring various relievers, including Tyler Rogers from the Giants (1:19:05)
  • The Yankees acquiring Camilo Doval, David Bednar and Jake Bird (1:25:45)
  • The Pirates holding several trade candidates but they did trade Ke’Bryan Hayes to the Reds (1:35:15)
  • The Blue Jays acquiring Shane Bieber and Varland (1:43:40)
  • The Red Sox acquiring Dustin May from the Dodgers (1:54:20)
  • The underwhelming deadlines of the Cubs and Tigers (1:59:40)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Megapod Trade Deadline Preview – listen here
  • David Robertson, Trade Chips For The O’s and A’s, And What The Rangers Could Do – listen here
  • Rays’ Ownership, The Phillies Target Bullpen Help, And Bubble Teams – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Chadd Cady, Imagn Images

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Arizona Diamondbacks Athletics Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Trade Rumors Podcast Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Camilo Doval Carlos Correa David Bednar Dustin May Eugenio Suarez Griffin Jax Jake Bird Jhoan Duran Ke'Bryan Hayes Leodalis De Vries Louie Varland Mason Miller Merrill Kelly Shane Bieber Tyler Rogers Zac Gallen

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Padres Notes: Payroll, Miller, Sears

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | August 6, 2025 at 1:50pm CDT

The Padres’ flurry of deadline dealings brought Mason Miller, JP Sears, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Laureano, Nestor Cortes, Will Wagner and Freddy Fermin to San Diego. The slate of new acquisitions addressed major deficiencies in left field and behind the plate to varying levels while also deepening the pitching staff. It was another frenetic deadline for the Friars — one that was complicated not only by a lack of depth in the farm but also some financial constraints. The Padres operated with minimal payroll flexibility in the winter, and it seems ownership’s budgetary crunch carried over to the deadline.

Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that the Orioles and Brewers both sent substantial cash considerations to the Padres in the respective trades involving O’Hearn, Laureano and Cortes. Baltimore sent $3.324MM to San Diego, while Milwaukee included $2.169MM in cash. The combined $5,493,300 the Padres received in that pair of trades effectively pays the trio of O’Hearn, Laureano and Cortes down to the prorated league minimum for the remainder of the season. Each of the other four players acquired by the Padres (Miller, Sears, Wagner, Fermin) was earning scarcely more than the $760K minimum as a pre-arbitration player.

The Padres are still more than $25MM north of the luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource, so the influx of cash won’t help them stay under the tax threshold (or even out of the second penalty tier). It does, however, mean the Padres barely added anything to their actual cash payroll for the 2025 season. That’s seemingly been the bigger concern than the luxury threshold anyhow. Nick Pivetta’s four-year contract, for instance, came with a $13.75MM average annual value but pays him just $4MM in 2025 (a $1MM salary and $3MM signing bonus).

San Diego’s actual cash payroll sits a bit above $213MM. It’s not clear what sort of payroll expectations ownership will have for the 2026 season, but there’s already more than $166MM in guaranteed money on next year’s books. That doesn’t include the $6.5MM club option on Laureano, which seems like a lock to be exercised.

That number also fails to account for arbitration raises. Each of Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Gavin Sheets will be due raises on this year’s salaries ($4.8MM, $2MM and $1.6MM, respectively). Miller, Sears, Fermin and righty Bryan Hoeing will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. Miller, in particular, will be in line for a notable salary. Closer Robert Suarez has a two-year, $16MM player option he’s likely to decline this winter, however, which would subtract an $8MM salary from the books.

Between Laureano’s option and the slate of arbitration raises, San Diego’s payroll can be reasonably expected to climb close to $200MM before making a single addition. Assuming Suarez indeed opts out, the Padres would be looking at a payroll in the $190-192MM range. If the goal is a payroll in the same realm as this year’s $213MM mark, that doesn’t leave a ton of additional space. Then again, each of Miller, Laureano, Fermin, Wagner and Sears proactively addressed some 2026 needs, and the Padres expect to welcome Joe Musgrove back to next year’s rotation after he missed the 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Due to that financial situation, the Padres presumably had to include more prospect capital in their deadline trades than if they didn’t need the other club to eat significant money. That’s a notable element as the Padres have traded away a large number of prospect in previous deals, so their farm system hasn’t been considered especially strong lately. Coming into this year, MLB.com ranked their farm 25th out of the 30 teams in the league, with Baseball America putting the Friars 26th.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Padres’ lack of impact talent was initially a roadblock in the Miller talks. Rosenthal notes that Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller tried to line up a three-team deal. He asked the A’s to tell him which prospects they wanted from other clubs, with the goal of then acquiring those players to send them to the A’s for Miller. There were rumors the Padres were considering trading majors leaguers like Dylan Cease or Suarez, so perhaps Preller could have traded one of those guys for the prospects he needed to get Miller.

However, the A’s didn’t want to take that complicated route and wanted to just deal directly with one club. They got interest from clubs like the Yankees, Phillies and Mets, but those clubs weren’t willing to surrender their top prospects. Specifically, Rosenthal notes that the Phillies weren’t willing to include Andrew Painter while the Yanks wouldn’t part with Spencer Jones or George Lombard Jr.

The Padres were eventually able to get the deal done, despite their weak farm system, by including top prospect Leo De Vries. They also included pitching prospects Braden Nett, Henry Baez and Eduarniel Núñez but De Vries was the key piece to getting the deal done. Having now traded De Vries and several other prospects, the Friars will presumably have an even weaker farm system in next year’s rankings, but that is seemingly a price they were willing to pay in order to build a winning team here in 2025.

As for Sears, the other player who came to San Diego alongside Miller, he may be viewed more as depth than a key piece of the club’s push this year. He started for the club on Monday, allowing five earned runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks, before getting optioned to Triple-A yesterday.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune notes that Sears may not be recalled in the remainder of the season, unless someone gets hurt. Michael King is on the injured list but has begun a rehab assignment, having thrown 3 1/3 innings in his first rehab start on Sunday. Once he’s healthy, the rotation will be Cease, King, Pivetta, Cortes and Yu Darvish. That would leave Sears in a depth role alongside guys like Randy Vásquez, Kyle Hart and Matt Waldron.

Going forward, however, the path to a role opens up. Each of Cease, King and Cortes are impending free agents. Musgrove should fill one of those vacancies but that still leaves space for Sears to carve out a role in next year’s rotation.

Photo courtesy of Chadd Cady, Imagn Images

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Baltimore Orioles Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres J.P. Sears Mason Miller

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