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13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

Mets To Issue Qualifying Offers To Severino, Manaea

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The Mets are issuing the $21.05MM qualifying offer to both Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X links). There’s no surprise in Manaea’s case, though Severino was more of a borderline call. The pitchers will have until November 19 to determine whether to lock in that salary. That’ll give their representatives just over two weeks to gauge the market.

Manaea is coming off one of the better platform years of anyone in the rotation class. He turned in a 3.47 earned run average while striking out a quarter of opponents through a career-high 181 2/3 innings. The southpaw had an excellent second half that coincided with a dip in his arm angle and an increased use of his sinker. He’ll probably be limited to three-year offers as he enters his age-33 season, though those could come at a comparable annual value to the QO price. He shouldn’t give much consideration to accepting.

Severino could have a more interesting decision. The hard-throwing righty worked to a 3.91 ERA across 182 frames spanning 31 starts. It was a nice rebound from his terrible final season with the Yankees. Severino improved his ground-ball rate to 46% but didn’t find the kind of bat-missing ability that made him a high-end starter during his early days in the Bronx. He fanned 21.2% of batters faced while getting swinging strikes at a well below-average 9.4% clip.

The lack of whiffs could lead to trepidation from some teams. Severino has plus velocity and good control, though, and he proved capable of shouldering a full workload for the first time since 2018. With Manaea virtually certain to decline the QO, the Mets were willing to risk bringing Severino back on a decent one-year salary. They’re likely to find themselves in the top tier of luxury tax penalization next season. That’d entail paying a 110% tax, potentially putting them on the hook for more than $44MM.

If Severino declines the offer in search of a three- or four-year deal, the Mets would be in line for modest draft compensation. As luxury tax payors, New York receives the lowest form of compensation for losing qualified free agents. They’d get compensatory picks after the fourth round if Manaea and/or Severino sign elsewhere. The prospect value of those picks is minimal, but it’d tack on a few hundred thousand dollars to next year’s amateur signing bonus pool.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Mets Claim Luis De Los Santos

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The Mets announced that they have claimed infielder Luis De Los Santos off waivers from the Blue Jays. Additionally, outfielder DJ Stewart as well as left-handers Joey Lucchesi and Matt Gage were outrighted off the 40-man roster. Stewart and Lucchesi elected free agency.

De Los Santos, 26, got up to the big leagues for the first time this year. He hit .172/.226/.241 in a small sample of 31 plate appearances to start his major league career. He hit .260/.375/.441 in his 154 Triple-A plate appearances while spending time at all four infield positions.

He still has a couple of option seasons and less than a year of year of service time, so he can provide the Mets with some depth around the dirt for the foreseeable future. They have Francisco Lindor cemented at short but questions elsewhere. First baseman Pete Alonso is now a free agent. He could be re-signed but it’s no guarantee he’ll be back. Mark Vientos just had a breakout season while playing third base but with poor defense, so he could perhaps move over to first if Alonso departs. Second base could be taken by Jeff McNeil but he’s also capable of playing other positions. Young guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña or Ronny Mauricio are candidates to take over at second or third base.

Stewart, 31 this month, finished 2023 on a heater but couldn’t really carry it over into 2024 as he finished the year with a .177/.325/.297 batting line for the Mets. He could have been retained for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $1.7MM salary but the Mets clearly weren’t interested in that and bumped him off the roster instead.

Lucchesi, 32 in June, has been an optionable depth arm for the Mets for a while but is now out of options. That means he wouldn’t be able to continue in that role going forward. Since missing 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, he has tossed 57 innings for the Mets over the past two seasons with a 3.32 ERA but but subpar strikeout and walk rates of 16.2% and 10.4% respectively. As players with at least three years of service time, both Stewart and Lucchesi had the right to elect free agency and did so.

Gage, 32 in February, was acquired from the Dodgers in a cash deal in July but didn’t pitch for them after that, mostly staying on optional assignment. He has 19 2/3 innings of major league experience with the Blue Jays and Astros in previous seasons.

Mets Claim Kevin Herget From Brewers

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The Mets have claimed right-hander Kevin Herget off waivers from the Brewers, per a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. There had been no prior indication that Herget was designated for assignment, though with today’s deadline to activate players from the 60-day injured list plenty of 40-man roster movement is to be expected around the league.

Herget, 34 in April, signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last offseason after being cut loose by the Reds. He went on to get a limited amount of big league action in the majors in 2024, tossing 11 1/3 innings for Milwaukee with two earned runs allowed. In Triple-A, he had a larger sample of work, posting a 2.27 earned run average in 47 2/3 innings. He struck out 32.4% of batters faced at that level while only giving out walks 6% of the time.

The Mets were apparently intrigued by those strong numbers, grabbing Herget off waivers today. The Mets just lost Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek and Drew Smith to free agency so they have filled in some lost bullpen depth with this claim. Despite his age, Herget is still in his pre-arbitration years and is therefore cheap and can potentially be controlled for years to come.

Mets Decline Team Option On Phil Maton

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The Mets have declined their $7.75MM team option on right-hander Phil Maton, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The 31-year-old will receive a $250K buyout and return to free agency.

The decision isn’t much of a surprise, even though Maton pitched quite well for the club down the stretch this season. The veteran righty posted a 2.58 ERA with a nearly identical 2.57 FIP in 28 2/3 innings of work after being acquired from the Rays in early July, with a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. Those excellent numbers may have been worth considering the $7.5MM decision on his option if they were held throughout the season, but that unfortunately was not the case.

Not only did Maton struggle badly in the playoffs, with an 8.53 ERA in six appearances for the Mets this season, but his brief tenure with the Rays was something of a disaster. His 4.58 ERA in 35 1/3 frames with the club was 12% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and his 5.63 FIP was 42% below par by measure of FIP-. He struck out just 19.7% of batters faced during his time with Tampa Bay, but even more concerning was the fact that his walk rate ballooned to 11.8% during that time. In all, that leaves Maton to enter free agency with a platform season that casts him as a solid but unspectacular middle reliever with a 3.66 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 71 appearances this year.

That’s more or less par for the course for Maton throughout his eight seasons in the majors. The right-hander sports a career ERA of 4.16 (100 ERA+) with a 4.00 FIP and a 25.9% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate. The best season of Maton’s career came just last year with the Astros, his third season in Houston after the club acquired him from Cleveland midway through the 2021 campaign in the trade that made Myles Straw a Guardian. In 2023, Maton struck out 27% of opponents while walking 9.1% en route to a 3.00 ERA in 66 innings of work.

A club that buys into Maton’s 2023 performance and his stretch run during the regular season with New York this year could potentially look at the right-hander as a late-inning option, although it’s possible he’s best suited to serve as a steadying, veteran presence in a bullpen like those of the Tigers, Cubs, and Rockies that has relied heavily on relatively young and inexperienced players. All three of those teams figure to be in the market for relief help this winter, but that can also be said of virtually every team in baseball. That should leave Maton comfortably in position to land a big league deal this winter, even if it doesn’t come at an AAV north of $7MM like this team option would have if exercised.

As for the Mets, Edwin Diaz remains locked in as the club’s closer and players like Jose Butto, Sean Reid-Foley, and Alex Young all impressed with the club this year. While it wouldn’t be a shock to see them look for bullpen upgrades this winter (particularly from the left side), they’ve already begun to make additions with their recent deal to land right-hander Dylan Covey. The signing of Covey, who has struggled in the majors but spent time both as a relief arm and a starter, could signal that the Mets don’t plan to spend much of their considerable payroll flexibility this winter on relievers as they look to reconstruct their rotation, retain first baseman Pete Alonso, and get into the thick of the bidding for Juan Soto.

Sean Manaea To Opt Out Of Mets Contract

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Left-hander Sean Manaea is planning to opt out of the second year of his contract with the Mets, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes (X link). Manaea signed a two-year, $28MM free agent deal with New York last winter that contained the player option for the 2025 season, and he’ll now leave $13.5MM on the table in search of a longer and more lucrative guarantee this offseason. He’s a virtual lock to receive a $21.05MM qualifying offer but is overwhelmingly likely to decline that in his pursuit of a longer-term pact.

Manaea’s decision comes as little surprise. The two-year pact he inked in Queens came in his second free agency foray. Since first reaching the open market on the heels of the 2022 season, he’s signed a pair of two-year contracts with opt-outs after year one, showing willingness to bet on himself and the confidence that he’ll eventually land a longer-term contract. Given the strength of his 2024 campaign, he’s now likely to find a guarantee of at least three years in free agency.

Entering the 2024 season, Manaea was viewed as something of a veteran stabilizer for the Mets’ rotation. New York’s president of baseball operations, David Stearns, made a series of short-term acquisitions in the rotation — Luis Severino also inked a one-year deal, and Adrian Houser was acquired from the Brewers — in an effort to patch things over in what most expected to be a transitional year for the Mets. Instead, the Amazins romped through the season’s final four months as the sport’s hottest team and rode that momentum all the way to the NLCS.

Manaea’s success was a huge part of that run. The 6’5″, 245-pound southpaw pitched a career-high 181 2/3 innings in the regular season and worked to a sharp 3.47 ERA. He fanned one quarter of his opponents, issued walks at a solid 8.5% clip and deftly avoided home runs (1.04 HR/9). Solid as the year-long numbers were, it was the second half where Manaea truly took off. Manaea altered his throwing motion midseason — closely resembling the delivery of likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale — and at the suggestion of pitching coach Jeremy Hefner began a unique pregame workout wherein he throws to the opposite mound in the bullpen while warming (X link, with video, via Steve Gelbs of SNY).

The transformation was nearly immediate. Over the final two-plus months of the year, Manaea pitched to a 3.09 ERA with an improved 28.5% strikeout rate against a 6.2% walk rate. He ditched his cutter entirely and eventually ditched his four-seamer as well, all in the name of throwing more sinkers and sliders. Opponents had averaged 89.2 mph off the bat against him prior to the changes and posted a 40.8% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Down the stretch, those numbers plummeted to 87.5 mph and 32.4%, respectively. Manaea’s excellence carried on through three postseason starts, but he finally ran into a wall in the Mets’ final game of the year, surrendering five runs in just two innings in the decisive Game 6 loss to the eventual World Champion Dodgers.

In free agency, Manaea will market not only a career-high workload (200-plus innings, including the postseason) but also newly altered mechanics and a tweaked repertoire that led to his late-season surge. He’ll turn 33 in February, which will make anything longer than a four-year deal extraordinarily unlikely, but a three- or four-year pact at a strong annual value should be on the table. The Mets are in the market for multiple starting pitchers and will surely have interest in retaining the big lefty, but Manaea will command interest from a broad range of suitors. He’s one of the top starters on the market this time around, but his age will prevent him from landing the type of long-term deal from which many clubs shy away.

Mets Among Roughly 11 Teams To Reach Out To Soto

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Day One of the offseason means the Juan Soto pursuits are underway. Until Monday, only the Yankees are allowed to discuss salary figures. However, other teams can touch base with his camp to broadly express interest and pitch their organizations now that the World Series is finished.

The top free agent has gotten no shortage of attention. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that 11 teams were in contact with Soto’s camp by Thursday morning. The Post’s Mike Puma relays that the Mets — widely perceived as the top challenger to the incumbent Yankees — were among them.

Soto getting attention from more than a third of the league isn’t surprising. There isn’t a single front office that wouldn’t love to add him. The number of legitimately plausible suitors is much smaller. Soto’s contract demands figure to be prohibitive for all but a handful of teams, though Heyman writes that two unidentified small-market franchises were among the initial eleven. Still, it’s hard to envision Soto landing with a team that isn’t a traditional behemoth.

To that end, Heyman floats the possibility of Soto’s camp looking to top $700MM without any deferred money. While Shohei Ohtani hit that mark before adjusting for the deferrals, the deal’s net present value was well south of $500MM. MLB calculates the Ohtani deal just shy of $461MM for luxury tax purposes, while the Players Association puts it around $438MM. Either number still represents an all-time record. The Ohtani contract is the only one in MLB history to top $400MM.

There’s not much doubt that Soto is going to beat both versions of the NPV of the Ohtani deal. Doing so on a contract with a present value of $700MM is a massive ask. It’d require breaking the guarantee record by upwards of $240MM. Getting there would require at least $50MM annually over a 14-year term. Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted $46.06MM average annual value is the only AAV north of $44MM.

No free agent has signed for 14 years. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only player to sign a 14-year contract, though his $340MM deal was an extension signed before his age-22 season. Bryce Harper got to 13 years as a free agent going into his age-26 season, as Soto is now. Harper took a relatively diminished $25.38MM annual salary, and while Soto is certainly going to beat that, shattering the AAV record and signing the longest free agent contract of all time would be an ambitious ask.

Of course, Soto is going to start free agency with extremely high expectations. The process seems likely to carry well into the offseason, perhaps beyond December’s Winter Meetings. Every high-payroll franchise figures to be linked to Soto in some capacity. The general expectation is that there’ll be a huge bidding war between Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen, in particular. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has already stated that the organization has the payroll flexibility to consider a run at “pretty much the entirety of the player universe.”

Puma notes that while the Mets may shy away from signing players who require draft compensation, they’re unsurprisingly willing to make an exception in Soto’s case. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Mets would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft choices and $1MM in international bonus pool space to sign him.

That’s a non-issue for a player of Soto’s caliber. If the Mets are reluctant to surrender draft compensation, that could be a factor for their other free agent pursuits. They’ll be heavily involved on free agent pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will get QOs, but Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty are ineligible. Borderline QO candidates include Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Nick Pivetta. As with Soto, they could consider Burnes and Fried to be exceptional free agents for whom they’re willing to take a hit to their farm system. That’ll be a subplot in what should be a fascinating offseason in the Big Apple.

Mets Sign Dylan Covey To Major League Deal

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The Mets have given out their first major league contract of the offseason, signing right-handed pitcher Dylan Covey to a one-year deal. The team announced the news this afternoon.

The terms of the deal have not yet been announced, although it’s presumably not a very high guarantee. Indeed, it’s somewhat surprising to see Covey land a big league deal at all considering his limited track record and lack of MLB success. He made his debut with the White Sox in 2017 after they selected him from the A’s in the Rule 5 draft. Over three seasons in Chicago, largely as a starting pitcher, he produced a 6.54 ERA and 5.16 SIERA in 250 1/3 innings of work. It was hardly a surprise when the White Sox cut him over the 2019-20 offseason and he elected free agency.

Over the next few years, Covey bounced from the Rays to the Red Sox to the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan. His performance over two seasons with the Rakuten Monkeys convinced the Dodgers to offer him a minor league deal before the 2023 season. Yet, after just one appearance for L.A., he was designated for assignment. The Phillies, in need of a mop-up man, claimed Covey off of waivers and put him in their bullpen. In his first chance at regular MLB playing time as a reliever, he was rather effective, albeit in a low-leverage role, pitching to a 3.69 ERA and 4.53 SIERA over 39 innings.

However, Covey did not pitch in the majors at all in 2024. He sat out the first four months of the season recovering from a right shoulder strain, and the Phillies removed him from the 40-man roster and sent him outright to Triple-A upon his return from the IL. Nonetheless, the Mets must have liked what they saw over his 15 appearances with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. After giving up a solo home run to the very first batter he faced at Triple-A in 2024, the right-hander did not allow another run for the rest of the season. He struck out 27.6% of the batters he faced. The Mets have several open spots on their 40-man roster, and they will use one of those spots to slot Covey into the bullpen picture for 2025.

MLBTR Podcast: The Mets’ Spending Power, Juan Soto Suitors, And The Rangers’ Payroll Limits

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns recently addressed the club’s financial situation (2:00)
  • Does the spending capacity of the Mets make them favorites for Juan Soto? (16:00)
  • The Rangers are reportedly hoping to duck beneath the competitive balance tax in 2025 (23:00)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Which impending free agent has earned the biggest pay raise by his performance in the current postseason? (30:30)
  • Could the Cardinals get Ryan Mountcastle from the Orioles in a deal for Ryan Helsley to fill the void at first? (36:40)
  • Could Rowdy Tellez be a fit for the Tigers? (38:50)
  • Should Justin Verlander switch into a closer’s role? (41:10)
  • Details on what’s coming up soon at MLBTR, including the Top 50 Free Agents, top trade candidates and a megapod (43:25)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The World Series, The White Sox Reportedly For Sale, And Tropicana Field – listen here
  • Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s – listen here
  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mets, Chris Devenski Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mets and right-hander Chris Devenski are in agreement on a minor league deal, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. The righty also receives a camp invite and will be competing for a job in next year’s spring training.

Devenski, 34 in November, has had an up-and-down career but is coming off a rough campaign. The Rays signed him to a one-year deal with a $1.1MM guarantee after getting a good look at him late in 2023. After being cut loose by the Angels, the Rays signed Devenski at the end of August last year. He posted a 2.08 earned run average over his nine appearances in Tampa so they decided to bring him back.

While the Rays are known for their savvy under-the-radar pickups, this one didn’t work out. Devenski tossed 26 2/3 innings for the Rays in 2024 but with a 6.75 ERA. His 19.7% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 25% ground ball rate were all below league averages. He missed about a month from late April to late May, going on the injured list due to right knee tendinitis. He was designated for assignment and released at the end of June.

He was then signed by the Mariners and spent the final months of 2024 with Triple-A Tacoma. He was able to finish his 2024 with a strong showing there in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, throwing 23 innings with a 2.35 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 43.1% ground ball rate.

The Mets are presumably intrigued by that performance with Tacoma, though the veteran’s longer track record may play a role as well. He had a dominant showing with the Astros to start his career, tossing 189 innings over 2016 and 2017 with a 2.38 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate.

But as mentioned, his career has been up-and-down, and those highs were followed with some serious lows. Over 2018 and 2019, he tossed another 116 1/3 innings for Houston but with an ERA of 4.56 in that time. His 6.9% walk rate was still good but his strikeout rate dipped to 24.9%. Elbow soreness limited him to just four appearances in 2020 and he eventually required Tommy John surgery in 2021. His attempts to get back on the mound in 2022 and 2023 were largely unsuccessful before his aforementioned stint with the Rays late last year.

Devenski has a 6.46 ERA since the start of 2020 but was injured for a lot of that. He showed some promise with the Rays late last year and with the Rainiers more recently. There’s no real risk for the Mets on a minor league deal, so they’ll take a look at what Devenski has come spring.

President of baseball operations David Stearns did plenty of tinkering with the bullpen this year. He gave one-year deals to Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman, Shintaro Fujinami, Jorge López, Michael Tonkin and Austin Adams last winter as well as several minor league deals. As the season progressed, many of those guys ended up losing their roster spots while guys like Phil Maton, Huascar Brazobán, Ryne Stanek and others were acquired from other clubs. Ottavino and Stanek are now about to hit free agency with Maton likely joining them if the Mets turn down his club option. The 2024 Mets were only eliminated about a week ago and the World Series is still ongoing, but the club has already made one move to provide some bullpen depth for next year.

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