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Jason Bay Reactions

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With an agreement in place between Jason Bay and the New York Mets, reactions to the deal are already starting to pour in….

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post feels that the Mets will regret signing Bay within a few years.
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan feels that Bay's money would've been better spent on John Lackey.
  • ESPN.com's Keith Law says that Bay's defense will dictate whether the contract is a good one or not, and argues that the Mets will need to make a few more moves to contend.
  • It may have taken a while to get done, but "all's well that ends well," writes Rob Neyer of ESPN.com.
  • Newsday's Ken Davidoff is on board with the deal, and hopes the Mets continue to stay financially responsible for the rest of the winter. This means going "nowhere near" Joel Pineiro at his current asking price, and not guaranteeing Bengie Molina two years (Davidoff suggests that reports of an imminent two-year deal for Molina are inaccurate).
  • Scott Lauber of The News Journal looks at what the move means for the Phillies, both as a division rival and as a club that will have their own free agent outfielder (Jayson Werth) next year.
  • Articles from Ian Browne of MLB.com and Ryan Divish of the Tacoma News Tribune examine the signing from Boston's and Seattle's perspectives, respectively.
  • R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs explains why, even if it's heavily backloaded, the Mets' offer was more financially appealing than one the Red Sox made earlier.

Odds & Ends: Zambrano, Cabrera, Molina

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Links for Monday…

  • Matt Klaassen of Fangraphs gave his thoughts on the Orioles' "enviable outfield logjam."  In his Offseason Outlook for the club, Tim suggested that Luke Scott could make sense as a trade candidate.
  • A week ago, we heard conflicting reports about whether or not the Yankees had talked to the Cubs about acquiring Carlos Zambrano. SI.com's Jon Heyman reports, via Twitter, that the Yankees "definitely" inquired, and speculates that Zambrano is "eminently available."
  • In a piece for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, David O'Brien suggested in passing that the Braves could potentially use Melky Cabrera as a trade chip. Heyman tweets that the Cubs would be very interested, if the Braves were to make Cabrera available.
  • ESPN's Jerry Crasnick says Bengie Molina "might be willing to consider" a two-year deal.  So far the Mets are at one year with an option.
  • Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times says Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik must retain at least one of Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez long-term.
  • Derek Zumsteg of U.S.S. Mariner gives us a Milton Bradley chronology.
  • CSNBayArea.com's Mychael Urban tweets that he's heard a whisper connecting the Giants to free agent reliever Kiko Calero.
  • WEEI's Alex Speier examines the differences between the contracts of John Lackey and A.J. Burnett.  In case you missed it, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe revealed on Wednesday that Lackey must play for the league minimum in 2015 "if an old elbow injury forced him to miss significant time with surgery any time during the deal."
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs says statheads and scouts are mostly in agreement these days, and Moneyball would be a very different book if Michael Lewis wrote it today.

Mets Sign Kelvim Escobar

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The Mets signed Kelvim Escobar to an incentive-laden one-year deal this week in the hopes that the former closer can become a force in Jerry Manuel's bullpen. Escobar and the Mets agreed to a major league contract with a base salary of $1.25MM.

Francisco Blavia of Lider en Deportes originally tweeted the deal and John Harper of the New York Daily News reported that the Mets were nearing an agreement with Escobar soon afterwards.  Blavia said (via Twitter) that Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee had also made Escobar offers.

Between 2004 and 2007, Escobar posted a 3.60 ERA and a 2.63 K-BB ratio as a member of the Los Angeles Angels. He missed the entire 2008 season with shoulder problems, and his July 2008 labrum surgery limited him to just five innings of major league work last year. 

That kind of injury history limited the amount of money the Mets would guarantee the righty, but Escobar can earn more if he's healthy in 2010. As ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported, the 33-year-old earns a $125K bonus for making the Mets' Opening Day roster, can make $2MM in incentives based on games pitched and $1MM more based on games finished.

Between Escobar and Ryota Igarashi, the Mets have added a high-upside pair of potential late-inning relievers for less than $5MM guaranteed.

Ben Nicholson-Smith also contributed to this post.

Mets Notes: Holliday, Rotation

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For weeks now, we've heard the rumors connecting the Mets and Jason Bay, leaving many to wonder why the Mets seem reluctant to make a more concerted effort to pursue Matt Holliday as well. Howard Goldin reports that general manager Omar Minaya answered that question himself when he was the guest speaker at the "21 Days of Clemente" benefit in New York:

"We are pursuing Matt Holliday. It seems to be easier to make a deal for Jason Bay."

That Bay seems an easier target is no surprise. Holliday is regarded by many as the top free agent on the market, and it should almost go without saying that Bay is easier to negotiate with simply because he is not represented by Scott Boras. Bay and his agent, Joe Urbon, would like the Mets to offer five years, while Minaya seems content with four. If talks of interest in Holliday continue, it would likely place some pressure on Bay, as he's not exactly being bombarded with other offers at the moment.

Minaya also comments on the club's 2010 rotation, stating that it will consist of Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and Jonathon Niese, though a free agent addition is a possibility. Joel Pineiro currently sits atop the Mets' wishlist of starters, though an upside signing like Ben Sheets or Erik Bedard would make more sense if you ask me.

Odds & Ends: Yanks, Reds, Orioles, Mets

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Another day removed from Christmas, let's hope we see a few more signs of life today from the hot stove. In the meantime, let's check out a handful of links….

  • Chad Jennings examines the decision the Yankees are facing, as they decide whether Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain is their fifth starter. Jennings feels that the best decision is for Hughes to start, with Joba being bumped back to the bullpen, for now. He feels both should be starters in the long run.
  • The Reds shouldn't trade away any of their starting pitching, writes Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports answers some frequently asked Orioles-related questions in his latest piece.
  • The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly writes that the Orioles have made significant strides in scouting and signing international players over the last couple years.
  • After parting ways with Curtis Granderson, the Tigers are searching for a player to take over their leadoff spot, according to the Detroit Free Press.
  • Newsday's Ken Davidoff (subscription required) tells Mets fans to relax, arguing that the team's offseason hasn't been too bad so far, and that there's still plenty of winter to come.
  • Joseph Pawlikowski at River Ave. Blues wonders if Jerry Hairston Jr. will fit into the Yankees' 2010 plans.

Cafardo On Red Sox, Hudson, Garland

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In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe speculates about where "old hands" such as Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz could land. Here are some of Cafardo's other notes:

  • The Red Sox "are debating whether they’ll go for it and pay luxury tax money," as their payroll approaches the $170MM mark.
  • If the Sox wanted to sign Jason Bay, they could offer a low, one-year base salary with three heavily backloaded option years. With as much as $48MM coming off their books next winter, they would be better equipped to pay Bay after 2010.
  • Baseball executives think that plenty of good values will be available by mid-January, with some established major league players having to sign minor league contracts. One NL GM says "the Pirates will load up" on this type of player.
  • The Mets are still the team most interested in Orlando Hudson, but would have to find a way to move Luis Castillo.
  • A market is starting to form for Jon Garland, and the Rangers seem to be the early frontrunner.
  • Other Rangers notes: The team might prefer Jermaine Dye to Vladimir Guerrero, since Dye can still play the outfield (albeit not particularly well, according to UZR/150). Texas and Minnesota could also be good fits for Miguel Tejada.
  • The Indians aren't saying Fausto Carmona is available, but baseball execs feel that the club would have to listen on any offers.

Odds & Ends: Indians, Maya, Sadowski

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Saturday night linkage..

  • In his latest mailbag, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer is asked about the Tribe's inactivity this winter.  Hoynes says that there are two reasons for this.  First, the team is rebuilding.  Secondly, ownership has little, if any, money to spend on free agents.  Hoynes says to look for the Indians to do something in January and February after the first and second-tier free agents have signed.
  • Cuban pitcher Yuniesky Maya put himself on display in the Dominican Republic last week.  Jorge Arangure of ESPN spoke to a scout in attendance who said the 28-year-old threw in the range of 88-92 MPH while showcasing a fastball, two-seamer, slider, curveball, and changeup.  According to a report from Globedia.com, passed along by Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog, the Mets and White Sox are the frontrunners to sign him.  Arangure notes that Deinys Suarez, who was also on display, has not generated as much interest as Maya.
  • Former Giants pitcher Ryan Sadowski has signed a deal to pitch for Korea's Lotte Giants in 2010, according to a report from The Korea Herald passed along by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.  Sadowski signed with Houston earlier this offseason, so it appears that the Astros have let the 27-year-old out of his contract.

Olney on Bay, Beltre, Holliday

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ESPN.com's Buster Olney believes the Yankees and Red Sox when they say that they have budget lines that they are not currently willing to cross.  When the trade deadline rolls around, however, it will likely be a different story.  Olney brings us his take on the teams who are still willing to spend this winter…

  • Since Jason Bay continues to sit on their offer, the Mets may soon give up on him and move on to less expensive free agents.  Olney suggests that they ignore fans who are focused on big names and instead spend their money on players who can be had for short-term deals, such as Randy Winn and Orlando Hudson.  The Mets "seem to have" something in the range of $15MM to $22MM in payroll flexibility. 
  • The Mets are shopping for a catcher, left fielder, and starting pitcher.  Joel Pineiro tops their list of desired starters. 
  • Olney characterized the A's consideration of Adrian Beltre as "serious."
  • As the Cardinals continue to wait on Matt Holliday's answer, Olney wonders out loud if the club might look into signing Bay as a backup plan. 
  • Rival executives sense that the M's have some money left to spend, but not a great deal.  Seattle needs either a first baseman or second baseman plus help for the back end of their rotation.
  • Because of the mass of arbitration-eligible players on their roster, the Angels have limited payroll flexibility.  This means that they could pursue Pineiro if they chose to, but are unlikely to factor into the bidding for Bay or Holliday.

Discussion: Pat Burrell

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Pat Burrell's move to the American League did not go as smoothly as he or the Rays hoped.  Burrell left the World Series-winning Phillies to sign a two-year, $16MM free agent contract with Tampa Bay last January, and then suffered through a season's worth of injuries and inconsistency to finish with a career-worst .682 OPS (.221/.315/.367) in 476 plate appearances.

With $9MM due to Burrell in 2010, the Rays have been openly shopping the slugger this winter.  Rumors of a deal of Burrell-for-Milton Bradley swirled for months before the Cubs dealt Bradley to Seattle last week.  With seemingly their best trade option gone, it appears as if Tampa Bay will go into next season with Burrell back in the DH spot — which, if 2009 was just an aberration, might not be a bad option given Burrell's 251 homers and .852 OPS over his first nine years in Philadelphia.

If the Rays still want to move Burrell and save some cash, however, here are a few of the clubs that are in need of a DH/LF type and might have the payroll flexibility to absorb some or all of Burrell's contract.

  • The Mets.  Should they give up on signing Jason Bay (or lose him to the Red Sox), New York would still have a hole to fill in left field.  The downside of Burrell going to a National League team, however, is his glove.  He played just two games in the outfield last season, and according to Fangraphs, his defense ranged from mediocre to terrible (a -25.2 UZR/150 in 2007) over his last four years in Philadelphia.
  • The Cardinals.  Just as Burrell is a backup plan for the Mets if they don't sign Bay, he can also be a backup plan for St. Louis if they don't sign Matt Holliday.
  • The Braves.  Atlanta's biggest offseason need was a right-handed power hitter.  While they are close to a deal with Troy Glaus, Glaus made just 32 plate appearances in 2009 after undergoing shoulder surgery last January.  Burrell is perhaps a more reliable option, and may regain his batting stroke back in the NL East.  
  • The White Sox.  Ozzie Guillen likes the idea of a rotating designated hitter, but GM Kenny Williams didn't close the door on the possibility of picking up an everyday DH if the right opportunity presented itself.
  • The Giants.  Mark DeRosa may be coming in as San Francisco's new left fielder, but Burrell could be an interesting alternative should DeRosa not accept the Giants' offer.  Or, the power-starved Giants could acquire Burrell to play in left, and then sign DeRosa to play third base, thus moving Pablo Sandoval over to first.  (Or, Sandoval plays 1B, DeRosa plays 2B and Freddy Sanchez moves over to 3B.)  If the Rays pay some of Burrell's contract, then he is a much cheaper option for San Francisco than Johnny Damon.

Jason Bay Rumors: Thursday

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6:32pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post is critical of how the Mets have handled negotiations with Bay.  He said "the Mets are losing their dignity" by spending so much of their offseason time and energy in pursuit of a player "who clearly has major concerns" about coming to New York.  Sherman suggests that the Mets should set a 24-hour deadline for Bay to accept their contract offer, and if he doesn't, the club should look at other left field options.  Sherman thinks that a player like Jack Cust would be a wiser, lower-cost signing who could provide similar power numbers. 

12:00pm: The Jason Bay to Boston rumors aren't exactly gaining momentum. An ESPNBoston.com article classifies the chances of a Bay return as a "long shot," while SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that the Red Sox would probably only consider Bay for less ("maybe much less") than the Mets' best offer. Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston adds (via Twitter) that Mike Cameron's agent hasn't heard anything about the Sox pursuing another left fielder.

8:36am: In yesterday's round of Jason Bay rumblings, we heard that there could potentially be a renewed mutual interest between Bay and the Boston Red Sox. Today, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe hears that the pairing would not be inconceivable, but that there are a couple of roadblocks: The Red Sox would have to extend their budget, after committing $15.5MM to Mike Cameron, and a potential contract would probably need to be heavily backloaded.

ESPN.com's Buster Olney agrees with that assessment, since a source tells him that the Red Sox have less than $5MM left in spending money. He writes that signing Bay would mean the Sox either blowing up their budget or having to move a contract or two.

As for the Mets' four-year offer that's still on the table, Olney says that the Mets are feeling more and more like Bay doesn't want to play for them, and are making alternative plans. Newsday's Ken Davidoff thinks it wouldn't be the end of the world if the Mets refused to increase their offer to Bay and he ended up elsewhere.

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