Poll: Should Daniel Murphy Receive A Qualifying Offer?
This year’s qualifying offer will be set at $15.8MM for one year, which is a hefty sum even considering the old adage that “there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.” As we’ve seen in the past three seasons since the QO was instituted, however, no player has actually accepted such an offer, instead preferring to seek out a multi-year free agent deal. This has led to issues for some free agents, as having draft pick compensation attached to their services has greatly diminished their markets and delayed their signings, in some cases (as with Kendrys Morales or Stephen Drew) into the actual next season itself.
With this all in mind, the qualifying offer is still an interesting wrinkle for mid-tier free agents like Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy. He’ll hit the open market on the heels of a .281/.322/.449 line and 14 homers over 538 plate appearances, and the 2.5 fWAR generated gives him 12.2 fWAR since the start of the 2011 season. That’s a pretty nice total for a middle infielder, especially given the lack of depth in the second and third base free agent market.
So in theory, Murphy should be set up for a nice payday this offseason. After speaking to various executives and agents, Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that Murphy could be in line for a three-year deal in the $30-$40MM range, though an AL team may be his best fit so his shaky defense could be offset by some DH at-bats. Murphy will turn 31 in April so it’s pretty unlikely that he would pass up what could be his only chance at a major multi-year contract by accepting one-year QO to return to New York.
Sherman outlines why the Mets should make Murphy a qualifying offer, as while he isn’t an elite player, he’s not a bad player to get back in the fold should he accept the $15.8MM. Letting him hit free agency without the QO attached would not just cost the Mets a draft pick, but it would be yet another problem caused by the team’s limited budget. Passing up a first-rounder just based on a slight chance Murphy could accept the QO seems like an unnecessarily cautious move.
This all being said, if payroll is still an issue for the Mets, then they have better ways of spending $15.8MM, especially when Dilson Herrera may be waiting in the wings to take over second base. If Herrera isn’t ready for an everyday role yet, a platoon of Herrera and a lower-cost veteran could replace Murphy’s 2.5 fWAR (perhaps based on defense rather than hitting) at a fraction of the price. The Mets have a number of free agents so quite a bit of money will be coming off the books, yet keeping in mind their budget, every dollar may count if the club plans to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes or make a play for a similarly top-tier free agent.
I’d like to add another possible scenario for the Mets. If Murphy did happen to accept the qualifying offer, they could trade him. New York might not want Murphy on a one-year, $15.8MM deal but I suspect several other teams would.
How do you think the Mets should handle Murphy this offseason? (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)
Should The Mets Issue A Qualifying Offer To Daniel Murphy?
-
Yes 54% (2,778)
-
No 28% (1,433)
-
Yes, but if he accepts, try to trade him 19% (980)
Total votes: 5,191
East Notes: Rays, Yankees, Braves, Mets
The Rays experimented with an unusual pitching strategy this season, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The club limited their young pitchers to just five or six innings per start and despite a lack of star-studded depth, the Rays’ 3.63 ERA for starters was the sixth best in the league. On the downside, the bullpen was overtaxed and had a 3.93 ERA – good for 11th worst in the bigs. President of Baseball Operations Matt Silverman says the plan needs some tweaking, and that could call for the rostering of more multi-inning relievers. Of course, the club will return four veterans next season in Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi, and Matt Moore, so they may not employ the same strategy in 2016.
Here’s more from the AL and NL East..
- Billy Eppler is off to California to serve as the Angels’ new GM, but Yankees scouts Tim Naehring and Jay Darnell won’t be following him, GM Brian Cashman says. “That’s not true,’’ Cashman said, according to George A. King III of the New York Post. “They are under contract.’’ As for Eppler’s replacement, King lists former Yankees outfielder/director of pro scouting Kevin Reese and manager of professional scouting Steve Martone as a couple of strong possible in-house candidates.
- Teams with managerial openings are not considering Braves first base coach Terry Pendleton or bullpen coach Eddie Perez at this time, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. O’Brien personally feels that both Pendleton and Perez would make strong managerial candidates.
- Earlier today we learned that the Mets will promote middle infield prospect Matt Reynolds to the playoff roster. A 40-man move must be made in order to facilitate that move and Adam Rubin of ESPN.com (on Twitter) speculates that a pending free agent such as Eric O’Flaherty could get bounced.
Brad Johnson contributed to this post.
Mets To Promote Matt Reynolds
The Mets are set to promote middle infield prospect Matt Reynolds to the playoff roster, according to Adam Rubin of ESPN.com. Reynolds will take the place of Ruben Tejada who is done for the year with a broken leg.
If Reynolds sees the field in the postseason, he’ll have the rare distinction of making his major league debut in the playoffs. Rubin, citing Elias Sports Bureau, notes that he would become only the second player in the modern era to make his MLB debut in the postseason. In 2006, Mark Kiger of the A’s also debuted in the playoffs. Reynolds will not step into the starting shortstop role, of course, as that spot will be filled by Wilmer Flores.
Rubin adds that the Mets quietly had Reynolds come to Port St. Lucie, Florida last week to work out and stay in baseball shape, just in case of such an emergency. The 24-year-old (25 in December) hit for a .267/.319/.402 slash line with six homers in Triple-A this season while playing strong defense.
Following the 2014 season, Baseball America (subscription required) ranked Reynolds as the No. 12 prospect in the Mets’ system. BA praised Reynolds for his “hard-nosed, gamer approach” and his sure hands. While he projects as a solid defender all around the infield, BA noted that he could profile well as a second baseman at the big league level.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Janssen, Papelbon, Storen, Murphy
The Phillies last lost 99 games in 1969, writes Frank Fitzpatrick of the Philadelphia Inquirer. It took seven more seasons for the club to return to the postseason, but it only takes a couple lucky moves to set the ball rolling. In the 1971 draft, Philadelphia gambled that they could snag Hall of Fame third baseman Mike Schmidt with their second round pick (30th overall). It worked out. Even better, they traded pitcher Rick Wise during the next offseason for another Hall of Famer – Steve Carlton. Today’s Phillies have better odds of returning to the postseason quickly – now one-third of teams reach the playoffs. They’ll still need to find a few diamonds in the rough in the interim.
- The Nationals aren’t expected to pick up Casey Janssen‘s $7MM club option, reports Bill Ladson of MLB.com in an analysis of the Washington roster. Janssen appeared in 48 games for Washington, throwing 40 innings of 4.95 ERA ball with 6.08 K/9 and 1.80 BB/9. The fly ball pitcher is best known for his command. He was the Blue Jays closer for parts of three seasons prior to joining the Nationals.
- Closer Jonathan Papelbon is “all but gone,” per Ladson. Papelbon was embroiled in the late-season scuffle with franchise star Bryce Harper. While it’s hard to get a read on the situation from the outside, it’s not surprising that the club could prefer to end the story for good. Ladson also views fellow closer Drew Storen as a change of scenery candidate. Storen pitched to a 6.75 ERA after Papelbon was acquired. If both relievers are traded (or cut in the case of Papelbon), the Nationals will need to acquire a new closer.
- Daniel Murphy‘s days with the Mets are almost certainly over, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. However, it would be a mistake if the club didn’t extend a qualifying offer. Based on input from agents and executives, Sherman thinks Murphy will sign a three-year deal in the $30MM to $40MM range. Sherman also has a “strong sense” that the Mets won’t extend a qualifying offer. New York has developed a reputation for penny pinching despite playing in a huge market. The biggest risk is that they pay Murphy $15.8MM for one season. Per Sherman, it’s a rate that a New York club should be able to easily afford, especially when the alternative is a still unproven youngster like Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera. Murphy was worth over $20MM this season according to FanGraphs.
New York Notes: Warthen, Severino, Prado, Gardner
Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen was overworked early in his career, writes Tim Rohan of the New York Times. Warthen figured he had torn his UCL back in 1975, but Tommy John had only received his eponymous surgery in 1974. Major league players were paid very little at the time so Warthen couldn’t afford the surgery or a year away from baseball. Instead he worked through the injury and his career ended a few years later at the age of 25. Of course, now it’s his job to make sure his young pitching staff remains healthy and productive for years to come.
Here’s more from that other New York club:
- The Yankees were right to keep top prospect Luis Severino, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. Severino was one name discussed with the Tigers for David Price. Notably, Price is now 0-6 in six postseason starts with a 5.23 ERA. Scouts believe Severino will soon be the Yankees ace, and he’s under club control for another six seasons. Per one scout, “If you’re talking six or seven years for Price…I’d take Severino anyway.“
- GM Brian Cashman was loathe to part with Martin Prado in the offseason trade for Nathan Eovaldi, per Harper. His versatility and ability to match up against hard throwing left-handed pitching would have been useful for the club. The Marlins have him under club control for the 2016 season, but the Yankees are already paying $3MM of his $11MM contract. Personally, I see a swap for Prado as a worthy alternative to free agent Ben Zobrist.
- After a miserable second half, the Yankees may consider trading Brett Gardner, suggests Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Gardner has a similar skill set to leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, but both players disappeared in the second half of the season. If Gardner were to be traded, it could open the door for a power bat like Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes. One scout opined that an early season wrist injury and late season shoulder soreness could have affected Gardner’s play. He’s owed $36MM through 2018 with a $12.5MM club option for 2019 ($2MM buyout). He’ll also be paid a $1MM assignment bonus if traded.
East Notes: Braves, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox
The Braves have pulled the trigger on a number of painful trades in recent months, and David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that some hurt more than others. It’s still an open question whether dealing the controllable Evan Gattis made sense, and the timing of Craig Kimbrel‘s departure was tough to bear for fans. But the swaps that still carry the most uncertainty in terms of their baseball wisdom, says O’Brien, are the two deadline deals. Parting with Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson for a relatively unexciting return left the club badly exposed down the stretch. And the risky swap that brought in Hector Olivera could end up looking really bad (or really good) in retrospect. But just-minted GM John Coppolella says that he likes the players that came over from the Mets quite a bit, and adds that the organization still believes Olivera delivers “really good value for what we think he will be.”
- Meanwhile, Mets skipper Terry Collins says that he sees the team’s acquisition of Uribe and Johnson as a key spark to the season, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. “I believe that was the trade that set things where we started to go,” Collins said. “They provided two professional bats in that lineup and [experience] in that clubhouse. All of a sudden guys are looking at their jobs saying, ‘Oh my gosh, I’ve got to step up here’, and they did. I think that to me is when we started turning things around.”
- The Yankees were not able to add that kind of impact at the deadline, as it turned out, but the club doesn’t regret its summer trade activity, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom writes. Manager Joe Girardi said that he feels “the organization made the right decision not giving up … your top prospects, your blue-chip prospects just for a two-month rental.” As he noted, the team got big contributions from young players who might theoretically have been trade chips: in particular, first baseman Greg Bird, starter Luis Severino, and second baseman Rob Refsnyder. GM Brian Cashman made clear that he feels the same way. “No, I don’t have any regrets.”
- It remains to be seen how the Red Sox will attack the offseason under new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, but Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe explains that the club has plenty of trade chips if it opts to pursue that route. That creates a situation where we should expect the unexpected, in the estimation of the veteran scribe. He ticks through the trade value and status of many of the organization’s assets, focusing on those who reside on the 40-man.
NL East Notes: Scherzer, Harang, Pierzynski, Matz, Ichiro
Nationals ace Max Scherzer has completed his second no-hitter of the season. The Mets fell victim to an utterly dominating outing. Scherzer fanned 17 hitters. The only base runner reached via error. The win actually has some postseason implications too. The Dodgers are now just one win away from securing home field advantage against New York. Scherzer no-hit the Pirates earlier this year. He struck out 10 in that contest. This was also the second time the Mets were no-hit (Chris Heston).
- Phillies starter Aaron Harang has yet to decide if he’ll play in 2016, tweets Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Harang, 37, posted a 4.86 ERA with 5.72 K/9 and 2.70 BB/9 over 166 and 2/3 innings. Through his first 11 starts, he had a 2.02 ERA and 3.10 FIP, but injuries soon sapped his production. Harang will consult with his family in San Diego before making a decision.
- Newly minted Phillies president Andy MacPhail is part of a long baseball tradition, writes Frank Fitzpatrick of the Philadelphia Inquirer. His father, former baseball executive Lee MacPhail once described his son as decisive, adding “he never second-guesses himself.” The Phillies will hope that decisiveness results in a rapid turnaround after a miserable season. If you’re looking to learn more about the MacPhail dynasty, Fitzpatrick provides a thorough background.
- Against all odds, Nationals infielder Dan Uggla won a roster spot in Spring Training and never gave it up, writes Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Uggla didn’t earn much playing time with the Nationals. Including two plate appearances today, he’s hit .183/.298/.300 in 141 plate appearances. Uggla believes his vision and health are back to where they were in his Marlins days. While it’s unclear if Uggla will find a guaranteed contract this offseason, multiple sources with Washington praised his clubhouse presence.
- The Braves hope to re-sign catcher A.J. Pierzynski, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The soon-to-be 39-year-old had a remarkably productive season after signing a one-year, $2MM contract over the offseason. He’s hit .300/.339/.430 with nine home runs. Pierzynski figures to receive some attention in free agency, but teams may be wary of his age and reputation.
- Mets starter Steven Matz is starting to build a reputation as injury prone, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Personally, it seems too soon to worry over seemingly minor injuries – even if they are poorly timed. However, one rival executive wondered “is he one of those guys where there is always going to be an issue?” For now, the Mets have to decide if and how they want to use him in the postseason. However, it’s possible the club could use him as trade bait over the offseason given their rotation strength. His trade value will be at a low point if rival clubs view him as an injury risk.
- Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki aims to play 10 more years, writes David Waldstein of the New York Times. The former Mariners star has played in 150 games for Miami due to a serious of injuries in the outfield. He’s posted a .233/.286/.284 line over 431 plate appearances. Advanced defensive measures look favorably upon his performance in the outfield. While another 10 years feels like a stretch, Ichiro should receive ample opportunity to reach 3,000 hits. He’s currently 65 shy.
East Notes: Staub, O’Day, Hanley
Former MLB star Rusty Staub suffered a medical emergency on a recent flight home from Ireland, the Mets have announced (via ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin on Twitter). That emergency was a heart attack, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. The flight was diverted back to Ireland, and Staub is currently in a hospital there. His prognosis is good. Staub, an outfielder and first baseman also known as “Le Grand Orange,” was a key figure in the early years of both the Expos and Mets. After spending his first several years in the big leagues with the Houston Colt .45’s / Astros, he was traded to the Expos in time for their first season in 1969, and he became the franchise’s first star, hitting 29 homers in his first season in Montreal. The Expos later traded him to New York, where he was a key figure on the Mets’ early-’70s teams. He then played several seasons in Detroit before heading briefly back to Montreal and on to Texas before returning to the Mets for his last several years in the league. In 23 seasons, Staub won six All-Star berths and hit 292 homers. Here’s more from the East divisions.
- Reliever and impending free agent Darren O’Day says he would like to re-sign with the Orioles, CSNmidatlantic.com’s Rich Dubroff tweets. The team has reportedly expressed interest in a reunion as well. O’Day will be 33 later this month, perhaps somewhat limiting his earnings potential on the open market, but he’s had a string of excellent seasons for the Orioles and is now finishing what’s been arguably his best year in the bigs — he currently has a 1.54 ERA, 11.3 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 64 1/3 innings. In a recent Free Agent Stock Watch piece on O’Day, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted that O’Day could well command a three-year contract this offseason, perhaps similar to Luke Gregerson‘s deal with the Astros.
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski hopes Hanley Ramirez will return for 2016 as a more “athletic” player, MLB.com’s Ian Browne writes. Ramirez was bigger than usual in 2015 and was trying to hit for more power. “I did hear that he came in bigger just for the simple fact he was thinking, ‘I’m going to be a left fielder or maybe a power guy,'” says Dombrowski. “Sometimes that extra weight doesn’t always translate into what you’re trying to accomplish.” Even though Ramirez will play next season at first base, Dombrowski says the Red Sox aren’t concerned about his home run totals. Ramirez’s first year in Boston was, of course, a very poor one — he hit 19 home runs but produced just a .291 OBP, and he struggled horribly with the transition from the infield to left field. He’s been out since August 26 due to shoulder trouble.
Bartolo Colon Intends To Pitch In 2016
The ageless Bartolo Colon has no plans to retire, telling Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that he will pitch next season if a team is interested in his services. Colon’s two-year, $20MM contract with the Mets expires at the end of the season.
“I think for personal records I think I was OK. I know 14-13 [his win-loss record] means a lot for me. I think I did everything in my power to help the team and put it in position to win,” Colon said. “For me, personally, it was a success.”
Colon, who turned 42 last May, has posted a 4.18 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 5.63 K/BB rate over 193 2/3 innings for the NL East champions this season, and he owns a league-leading 1.1 BB/9. This pinpoint control helps the 18-year veteran succeed despite an on-paper unimpressive arsenal that still fools most batters, including an 88.4mph fastball that he throws a whopping 83.7% of the time.
A return to the Mets may not be in the cards for Colon, given how the team already has Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Jon Niese slated for the 2016 rotation, not to mention Logan Verrett and Rafael Montero as other possible depth options and Zack Wheeler returning at midseason from Tommy John surgery. Still, Colon’s durability and solid numbers should ensure that he’ll get interest from some teams, despite his advanced age.
NL East Notes: Nationals, Desmond, Bour, Harvey
Here’s the latest from around the NL East…
- Ian Desmond hinted that he is likely entering his last week in a Nationals uniform, as the free agent shortstop told the Washington Post’s James Wagner that “I know that there’s a new chapter looming” in his career. It was a frustrating year for both the team and Desmond personally, as he has hit only .232/.285/.381 over 619 PA in his walk year. “If anything weighed on me, it was the fact that this was most likely going to be my last ride and I really wanted to go out with a bang, not personally but as far as a team,” Desmond said. “I probably, at certain times, tried to do too much but I’m a trier, man. I wanna win. I’m extremely passionate about my teammates and this organization and winning.” Desmond did say that he’s “open for whatever” in free agency and spoke of his pride in being a part of the first generation of Nationals baseball, so it’s perhaps not completely out of the question that he could re-sign with Washington.
- Marlins rookie first baseman Justin Bour is making a strong case for an everyday job in 2016, FOX Sports Florida’s Christina De Nicola writes. Bour had a .266/.326/.474 slash line and 21 homers in 420 plate appearances heading into today’s action, and he’s been particularly hot down the stretch, posting an .887 OPS in 94 September PA. The left-handed hitting Bour has only a .597 OPS in limited at-bats against southpaws, but at worst he seems to have earned himself at least the lion’s share of a platoon for next year.
- Matt Harvey threw 92 pitches over 6 2/3 innings on Saturday, and the Mets ace reportedly told manager Terry Collins and pitching coach Dan Warthen that he wants to make regular starts down the stretch, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes. “When he came to me last week he said, ‘I want to pitch. I want to stay out there. I want to throw 100 pitches and I want to do it twice (before the end of the season),’ ” Collins described. “He said, ‘We’re going to win this thing and I’m going to pitch in the playoffs, and I’ve got to be ready. And I’m not ready.’ ” Harvey has now thrown 183 2/3 innings in his first season back after Tommy John surgery. Ironically, since the Mets have now clinched the division, this might be the ideal time to shut Harvey down until the playoffs, though this innings-limit controversy may yet have a few more twists and turns.