NL East Notes: Nats, Chapman, Duda, Braves
ESPN’s Jayson Stark is picking the Nationals to win the World Series, and his opinion that they’re baseball’s best team is shared by many scouts and executives around the game. The Nats have depth, playoff experience, an incredible pitching staff and an easy road (on paper) to the postseason since the NL East projects to be a weak division. Also, with so many major free agents after the year, the Nationals have a great sense of urgency to win in 2015 and will surely be aggressive in filling roster needs throughout the season. “They have what everyone wants — a ‘now’ team with ingredients they can move if they need to,” one scout told Stark.
Here’s some more from around the NL East…
- As an example of how aggressive the Nationals could get, Stark heard “a lot” of speculation that they could try to obtain Aroldis Chapman from the Reds at the trade deadline if Drew Storen underachieves as closer. This would, of course, likely depend on whether or not the Reds are themselves contenders.
- There’s no progress on extension talks between the Mets and Lucas Duda‘s representatives, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports. The two sides are still talking but have yet Opening Day as the negotiating deadline.
- No teams are showing any “significant interest” in Mets righty Dillon Gee, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).
- The Braves are still considering possible trades, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets, but it seems as if Pedro Ciriaco will make the roster as a backup outfielder. Ciriaco signed a minor league deal with Atlanta last October and the Braves will have to create a 40-man roster spot for him if he indeed breaks camp with the team.
- At the moment, the Braves aren’t close to making any trades, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link).
Mets Notes: Harvey, Duda, Lagares, Wheeler
The Mets will keep Matt Harvey on a rough limit of 90 pitches for his April starts, manager Terry Collins told reporters (including Adam Rubin of ESPN New York) following Harvey’s final Spring Training start today. The club’s plans to be fairly cautious with Harvey in his return from Tommy John surgery haven’t changed, GM Sandy Alderson said, despite how Harvey has dominated opposing batters in spring competition. Harvey threw four shutout innings of work today to drop his Spring Training ERA down to 1.19 over 22 2/3 innings. Here’s the latest on the Amazins….
- It seems “unlikely” the Mets and Lucas Duda will reach agreement on an extension before Opening Day, a source familiar with the talks tells CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. Another source says there has been “not a lot of movement” in negotiations, and both the player and team have set the opener as the unofficial deadline for talks.
- Alderson told Adam Rubin that “I think that’s hard to say” when asked to comment on the progress of the Duda negotiations. “There will be resolution by Monday, one way or the other,” Alderson said.
- The Mets’ four-year, $23MM extension with Juan Lagares is “pretty much a can’t-lose” deal for the team “even if he never gets better than he was in 2014,” Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines. I agree with Sherman that Lagares’ new deal is a pretty reasonable price to pay for elite-level center field defense.
- Andy Martino of the New York Daily News also likes the Lagares contract, and between that extension and recent trades for Jerry Blevins and Alex Torres, Martino feels the Mets are entering the season on a positive note.
- Zack Wheeler also had surgery to repair a torn tendon in addition to his Tommy John procedure this winter, so the right-hander need more time than usual to recover, he told Newsday’s Marc Carig. The combination of the two procedures could push his return back to June or July 2016, though Wheeler hesitated to cite a firm date this early in his rehab process.
Mets Extend Juan Lagares
After a largely quiet offseason, the Mets have sprung into action by acquiring a pair of left-handed relievers and now formally announcing a four-year extension with center fielder Juan Lagares. Lagares’ new contract reportedly calls for a $23MM guarantee. New York will also pick up a $9.5MM club option ($500K buyout) for an additional season.
Lagares, 26, is represented by ACES. The annual breakdown of the deal is as follows: $2.5MM in 2016, $4.5MM in 2017, $6.5MM in 2018 and $9MM in 2019. As that indicates, the contract does not kick in until meaning that New York has locked in salaries for all of Lagares’s arbitration years while picking up a club option over his first season of free agent eligibility. Lagares entered the offseason with 1.160 years of service, meaning he’d almost certainly have qualified for Super Two eligibility next year. All told, New York will stand to gain control over Lagares through his age-31 season.
Lagares established himself last year with an outstanding campaign in the field and solid effort at the plate. There is no doubt that his primary value comes with the glove: Lagares led all qualifying outfielders with 25.3 UZR/150, with Defensive Runs Saved and scouting reports concurring in his excellence.
Of course, Lagares had already showed that kind of capability in center. What last year did more than anything was show his capacity on the offensive side of the equation. Lagares slashed .281/.321/.382 over 452 plate appearances, an approximately league average line, while contributing four home runs and 13 stolen bases.
There may not be much upside left in the bat given his age, but the aggregate package has obvious appeal. Lagares was worth 4 fWAR and an even more impressive 5.5 rWAR last year, making him the type of well-above-average player that any team hopes to be able to lock in up the middle.
In terms of the payday, which is yet to be reported precisely, Lagares obviously had some reasonably anticipated caps on his earning capacity since his skillset is presently not valued highly in arbitration. The most obvious comp for this deal is the recent Adam Eaton extension — a five-year, $23.5MM pact (plus two club options) for a center fielder who had one less year of club control but who was on track to qualify for arbitration just three times. Eaton is also 26, and both players have missed some time due to injuries over the last few years. While they profile differently, and appear to have agreed to differently-structured deals, the overall value of the two players is arguably fairly similar.
Another way of looking at it, though, would be to compare this agreement to the Andrelton Simmons extension from last winter. Simmons, of course, is also an elite defender whose bat is slightly below average to average. The Braves cornerstone, then 24, got seven years and $58MM in exchange for his age-24 through age-31 seasons. With this deal, the Mets appear set to control Lagares through his age-31 season with a more modest annual guarantee and lower overall risk.
ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden first reported the deal and its parameters (links to Twitter). Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported the final terms (via Twitter; web link).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Extension Notes: Duda, Harvey, Cueto, Price
The Mets are reportedly set to lock into all of the arbitration-eligible seasons of center fielder Juan Lagares while adding control over another year via club option. But that is not the only possible extension scenario ongoing in New York and elsewhere.
Here’s the latest:
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson acknowledged that the club has had conversations with both Lagares and first baseman Lucas Duda, as Mike Vorkunov of the Star-Ledger reports (Twitter links). He explained the team’s process as akin to that which led it to sign deals in the past with players like David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Jon Niese, calling Lagares and Duda “select individuals who we think have real upside.” A new pact for the power-hitting, arb-eligible Duda will likely cost the Mets a fair bit more than the $23MM the team reportedly committed to Lagares.
- For his part, Duda indicated that he is hopeful of getting a deal done before the presumptive deadline of Opening Day, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. His agents are still working with the New York front office.
- Arguably the Mets‘ best player, starter Matt Harvey, tells Puma (Twitter links) that he and agent Scott Boras have not been approached to discuss a deal. Of course, that could be due in large part to the fact that Harvey appears to be in a particularly unlikely extension spot: a Boras-represented ace with nearly-unlimited upside who is preparing to enter his arbitration years after missing a season due to Tommy John surgery. When asked whether he would try to get something done with Harvey, Alderson said that the question was “too far afield for me.” Needless to say, it does not appear that there is anything in the works here.
- The Reds have made “no progress” on a deal with ace Johnny Cueto, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. That is really not surprising, given that Cincinnati appears to have a lack of future payroll flexibility and Cueto a rather substantial earning potential as a free agent.
- Morosi also tweets that he does not expect any pending free agents to reach long-term deals barring a surprise, massive offer from the Tigers to David Price, and it is hard to disagree with that assessment. That being said, Price made clear yesterday that he is not putting any timeline on talks about a new deal, as MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports. Price also gave some hints as to his mindset, seemingly indicating that Detroit knows his demands and will have to decide whether to meet them. “It wouldn’t be something that would linger on,” he said. “These guys, they know what they want to do, and so do I. So if we get to that point, then I think once it gets going, it would go quickly. If it doesn’t happen, then it just wouldnât happen. It’s not something that we’d revisit every two weeks. I’m sure the Tigers would rather it be either we can get it done or we can’t and leave it alone. We’ll see how everything starts shaking out.” Price added that he does not necessarily see recent deals for top starting pitchers as setting the salary range that should apply to his next deal: “I guess you could say that, but that’s not my thought behind it.”
NL East Notes: Duda, Wilpon, Gonzalez, Turner
The Mets and Lucas Duda intend to cut off extension negotiations when the season opens, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes. It remains to be seen whether anything gets done, of course, especially since the 29-year-old still has just one complete season of strong performance on his ledger. A league executive tells Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that the comparables suggest a deal in the four-year, $30MM range could make sense, pointing to the cases of Allen Craig, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler. In spite of his somewhat late start, Duda could have a higher earning capacity than that trio if he keeps hitting thirty-plus home runs.
- One notable new feature of Mets camp has been the presence of owner Fred Wilpon, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes. Though Wilpon has not said much publicly, he has been fairly visible and active behind the scenes, says Martino, consistently conveying the message that he expects winning baseball.
- Phillies righty Miguel Gonzalez looks like he may never pay off on the team’s investment, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes, particularly since he has not managed to earn a job in spite of the team’s desperate need for arms. “He hasn’t pitched well enough to be a major league starter for us,” said GM Ruben Amaro Jr. “His stuff and his command just weren’t good enough. It’s kind of simple. He needs to be better for us to utilize him in our rotation. He’ll go down and pitch and hopefully he improves. If he doesn’t, then he doesn’t.” Amaro continued to acknowledge: “He hasn’t performed as well as we would have liked. He may never perform as well as we would have liked, but that’s the risk you take. Sometimes, you’ve got to take a risk.”
- Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post takes a look in at Nationals shortstop-to-be Trea Turner, who is currently still with the Padres until he can formally be sent to D.C. The club had to check with the league to see if the deal could be structured that way, and pulled the trigger when it found it would be permitted. Washington had been intrigued with Turner in last year’s draft, says Svrluga, and a strong entry into the professional ranks has only raised his stock. For his part, as he waits to get introduced to a new organization, Turner says that his former team has “treated me just like one of their players.”
Mets Acquire Jerry Blevins
The Mets announced that they’ve acquired left-hander Jerry Blevins from the Nationals in exchange for outfielder Matt den Dekker (Twitter link). Blevins becomes the second left-handed reliever added to the Mets’ bullpen today, as the team struck a deal to acquire Alex Torres from the Padres in exchange for Minor League righty Cory Mazzoni and a player to be named later.
Blevins, 31, had a curious season in his lone year with Washington. Though his strikeout rate soared to a career-best 10.4 K/9, he also posted a 4.87 ERA that was the worst full-season mark of his career. The likely culprit in Blevin’s struggles was a dismal 60.5 percent strand rate that checked in about 13 percent below his career mark. Stats such as FIP (2.77), xFIP (3.25) and SIERA (2.93) all feel that Blevins was particularly unlucky and that his ERA should rebound in 2015.
Perhaps more important in this situation, however, are Blevins’ numbers against left-handed hitters. Torres has proven that he can retire both left- and right-handed hitters and has actually been better against righties, so Blevins could be deployed as more of a specialist, whereas Torres will pitch entire innings. Blevins limited left-handed hitters to a frail .160/.202/.217 batting line in 2014 and has held them to just a .212/.264/.330 batting line throughout his career.
Blevins is set to earn $2.4MM this season after avoiding arbitration for the final time this winter. He’s only controlled for the coming year, so he amounts to a bullpen rental.
Of course, the price paid for Blevins isn’t necessarily steep. The 27-year-old den Dekker has played sparingly for New York over the past few seasons, hitting .238/.325/.310 in 237 plate appearances. More of den Dekker’s value is on the defensive side of the game, as he’s capable of handling all three outfield spots. He boasts a nice Minor League track record as well, having slashed .284/.345/.467 in 903 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Despite that, though, den Dekker was a long shot to make the club. The out-of-options Kirk Nieuwenhuis figures to be the team’s fourth outfielder behind Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer, and John Mayberry Jr. will also be in the mix for outfield playing time.
This acquisition does call into question whether or not left-hander Sean Gilmartin, a Rule 5 pick from the Twins, will make the team. Earlier today, reports indicated that Gilmartin was likely to break camp with the team even if the Mets added a left-handed reliever from outside the organization. While adding a pair of southpaws might seem to cloud that situation, manager Terry Collins has indicated that Gilmartin still has a good chance of making the team, per Adam Rubin of ESPN New York, which could then be bad news for veteran right-hander Buddy Carlyle (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Mets, Gilmartin, Johnson, Janssen
The Phillies may be preparing to add their fifth starter from outside the organization, according to a tweet from Jayson Stark of ESPN. Stark spoke with an executive who asked the Phillies who their fifth starter was expected to be and received a reply of, “He’s not here yet.” A number of rotation options have been released over the past few days, including Jhoulys Chacin, Scott Baker and Felix Doubront. More releases figure to come soon, and other rotation options will be placed on waivers as we get late into camp. I’d be surprised if the Phillies made any form of significant move, but adding someone with a bit of upside, such as Chacin, could prove beneficial if they can get him back on track. The Phillies will go with Cole Hamels, Aaron Harang, David Buchanan and Jerome Williams in their first four rotation spots.
Here’s more from the NL East…
- The Mets are confident that they can land a left-handed reliever before Opening Day, but even if they do bring in someone from the outside, Rule 5 lefty Sean Gilmartin has a good chance of making the club, per ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin. Gilmartin, 25 in May, was the Braves’ first-round pick in 2011 but was traded to the Twins for Ryan Doumit last offseason. Gilmartin posted a combined 3.71 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 145 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A for the Twins last season, but they made the at least somewhat curious decision to leave him unprotected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. With the Mets this spring, Gilmartin has allowed five runs in 8 2/3 innings with an 11-to-5 K/BB ratio. Last year in the Minors, Gilmartin held lefties to a miserable .201/.219/.235 batting line.
- Marlins manager Mike Redmond tells Tom D’Angelo of the Palm Beach Post that he “lost a few nights of sleep” over the decision to cut Reed Johnson, who was released earlier this morning. Redmond spoke highly of Johnson’s influence on the team’s young hitters last season and voiced an opinion that while he expects Johnson to get picked up by another club, he also can see him transitioning to a coaching or even managerial role in the future. Redmond called the 38-year-old Johnson “a guy who has truly earned everything he’s been given in this game.” D’Angelo notes that Jordany Valdespin, Don Kelly, Donovan Solano and Reid Brignac are competing for the final two bench spots in Miami. The Marlins are prioritizing taking someone who can play shortstop for one of the two spots.
- Tom Schad of the Washington Times spoke to Nationals right-hander Casey Janssen and was told that the setup man isn’t sure if he’ll be ready for Opening Day. Janssen underwent an MRI on his right shoulder yesterday and while the results haven’t been released yet, Janssen said he doesn’t believe the test indicated a significant injury.
Mets Remain Open To Trading Dillon Gee
Though right-hander Dillon Gee is expected to open the season in the Mets’ rotation and there are no active trade talks surrounding him at this time, the team may still trade him within a month’s time, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports.
Gee is slated to be the team’s fifth starter to open the season, but he has his dissenters within the organization who prefer Rafael Montero in the rotation, Rubin hears. The Mets, of course, also have a wealth of young pitching in the upper levels of the Minor Leagues, including Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Even with right-hander Zack Wheeler out for the year, it does seem that the Mets would have enough pitching depth to move Gee and his $5.3MM salary.
Gee, who will turn 29 in late April, is under control through the 2016 season. He pitched to a 4.00 ERA in 137 1/3 innings last season with the Mets and has turned in a 3.91 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate in 639 2/3 innings over parts of five seasons in New York.
From a purely speculative standpoint, the Rangers, Phillies, Braves, Blue Jays, Astros, Yankees, Dodgers and Rays all make some degree of sense, as each has either dealt with pitching injuries or was open to adding depth late in the offseason. The Mets are known to be seeking left-handed relief options, but they’re apparently reluctant to move Gee for such a pitcher.
It’s somewhat rare to see a regular player or rotation option moved in the season’s first month, but it does happen from time to time, and Mets GM Sandy Alderson is no stranger to such moves; the Mets matched up with the Pirates on a trade for Ike Davis on April 18 last season.
NL Notes: Bryant, Garcia, Villanueva, Nats, Mets
The Cubs‘ impending decision about whether to have Kris Bryant start the season in the minors has players around baseball talking about service-time rules, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes in a story that collects responses to Bryant’s situation from players from several teams. “Hey, we have a chance to make a lot of money in this game, but the rules are the rules,” says Yankees reliever Andrew Miller. “If that works in the Cubs favor, and the Cubs are a better team for that, they’re entitled to (use the rule to their favor). We negotiated that. It’s the reality of what our collective bargaining agreement says.” Here’s more from the National League.
- Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia will miss his start due to a shoulder issue, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports. Garcia likely will not be in the team’s Opening Day rotation. Garcia had impressed the team in camp and might well have made the Cardinals’ rotation, particularly since having him start rather than Marco Gonzales or Carlos Martinez would have been the best way for the Cards to protect their assets — they could have easily just optioned Gonzales to the minors, put Martinez in the bullpen and kept all three pitchers. Instead, it’s yet another injury for Garcia, who’s dealt with plenty of them in the past few seasons. There is, however, reason to hope it won’t be serious — GM John Mozeliak (via Langosch on Twitter) characterizes the injury as fatigue and the missed start as “more of a pause than anything.”
- Pitcher Carlos Villanueva, who’s on a minor-league deal with the Cardinals, can opt out of that deal Monday, Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch notes (via Twitter). Villanueva has gotten fairly good results in camp and has a track record of providing solid performances in a swingman role, so the Cardinals could try to find space for him on their roster.
- Intentionally or not, the Nationals, who have lefty relievers available, gave the lefty-starved Mets a look at Jerry Blevins Saturday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. (Blevins struck out Curtis Granderson but gave up a triple to Lucas Duda.) The Nationals have Blevins, along with Xavier Cedeno and Matt Thornton, and all are out of options, so they could end up trading one.
Mets, Lucas Duda Discussing Extension
The Mets are discussing an extension with Lucas Duda, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Duda himself characterizes the talks as “preliminary stuff,” and agent Dan Horwits confirms that there have been talks but says those talks will be put on hold beginning on Opening Day.
Duda will make $4.2MM in 2015 and will be eligible for arbitration two more times before becoming a free agent following the 2017 season. By that point, he will be heading into his age-32 season, and Sherman points out that it might be tough for a 32-year-old first baseman not known for his athleticism to land a big contract. So perhaps one possibility for Duda might be to sign a four- or five-year deal that would give the Mets an extra year or two of control in exchange for a significant guarantee.
Of course, if Duda doesn’t sign an extension, much of his future earning power will depend on whether he can continue hitting for power the way he did last season. 2014 was a breakout year for Duda, who rewarded the Mets’ faith in him by hitting 30 home runs in a full-time role while batting .253/.349/.481.