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AL East Notes: Chapman, Yankees, Liu, Edwin

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Some items from around the AL East…

  • Negotiations between Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees about the closer’s contract extension apparently came down to the final moments before the deadline for Chapman to decide whether or not to exercise his opt-out clause, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Chapman was hoping to have two extra years added onto the remaining two years on his pre-existing contract, but ultimately settled for just one extra season ($18MM for the 2022 season).
  • The impact of Chapman’s new contract on the Yankees’ luxury tax situation is examined by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who observes that the extension won’t lead to any savings due to the “true-up charge” associated with the specific breakdown of how Chapman’s salaries were paid out over the first three years of his deal, largely due to a signing bonus payout.  As a result, Chapman’s new tax number is $17.5MM over the next three years, which doesn’t help alleviate the crunch for a Yankees team that Sherman figures is already approaching the $208MM threshold for 2020 just with pre-existing roster talent.  The Yankees will face tax penalties for surpassing the second level ($226MM) of the tax threshold in 2019, and it remains to be seen how far over the $208MM threshold ownership will allow the front office to go in 2020.  As Sherman notes, ownership would presumably balk at surpassing the top penalty level of $248MM, which would impact the Yankees’ chances of adding a mega-salary (i.e. for a Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg) and retaining free agents like Didi Gregorius or Dellin Betances.
  • A brief scouting report on newly-signed Red Sox right-hander Chih-Jung Liu is provided by former big leaguer Chien-Ming Wang to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, as Wang has worked with the 20-year-old prospect.  Liu “needs to improve his slider and splitter to have a good out pitch” and “needs to build up his arm strength and pitch count,” Wang said.  These aren’t unusual criticisms for any young pitcher, especially for a case like Liu, who mostly played shortstop in high school and only recently got back into pitching.  Liu is also “bright” and “seems to be able to adapt to [a] new environment quickly,” Wang said, and he also noted that Liu asked him how to throw a sinkerball, Wang’s signature pitch.  Abraham reports that the Phillies and Diamondbacks were among the other teams who had interest in Liu before the Red Sox signed him for $750K.
  • Now that Edwin Encarnacion is officially a free agent, could the slugger potentially return to the Blue Jays?  There is room on paper, as Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have a vacancy at first base/DH since Justin Smoak is also headed for free agency, and Encarnacion could likely be had on a fairly inexpensive one-year deal.  However, with the Blue Jays still in rebuild mode, Nicholson-Smith figures it probably makes more sense for the club to “find the next Encarnacion instead,” i.e. a player who can be an important contributor for several years.  Toronto GM Ross Atkins has also spoken of wanting a first baseman who can play multiple positions, while Encarnacion is limited to first base (and could best be suited for a DH role altogether).

Yankees To Extend Aroldis Chapman

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Reports indicate that the Yankees have reached an agreement to keep closer Aroldis Chapman in pinstripes through 2022. New York will add a third year valued at $18MM in addition to the two years and $30MM that remained on Chapman’s previous contract with the club, bringing its total commitment to the hurler to $48MM over the next three seasons, according to reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan (link).

Chapman had been facing a Saturday deadline on an opt-out decision regarding the remaining two seasons on the five-year contract he signed with the club prior to the 2017 season, but the addition of a third season has apparently persuaded him to forego open market opportunities. His original deal with New York represented the largest guarantee ($86MM) ever given to a free agent reliever, and this extension promises to bring Chapman’s six-year Yankees outlay to a whopping $104MM.

Our own Steve Adams predicted on Friday that a three-year deal would be the 31-year-old pitcher’s most likely free agency outcome if Chapman’s representatives at Magnus Sports had been unable to reach an extension accord with New York. That both club and agency were able to come to an agreement should be a boon to the Yankees bullpen, being that Chapman’s presence will allow fellow relievers Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, and Chad Green to remain in the roles they held in 2019. And that’s before accounting for the Cuban native’s personal performance.

In 2019, Chapman, though not exactly the radar gun-breaking flamethrower he once was, recorded superlative numbers by pretty much any measure. He posted 57 innings — his most since signing with New York — en route to a sparkling 2.21 ERA; his 13.4 K/9 rate and 0.47 HR/9 rate were also ready evidence of the lefthander’s late-inning dominance. Working in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium, Chapman recorded 37 saves–his seventh time in the last eight seasons eclipsing the 30-save plateau.

Had Chapman chosen to forego the remaining two years on his deal, he would have in all likelihood entered free agency with a $17.8MM qualifying offer attached to his name. Last offseason saw another great closer of the current era, Craig Kimbrel, remain on the open market well into the regular season after being attached to a QO, so it’s fair to wonder whether that spectacle encouraged Chapman to remain with the bird in hand. Regardless, tonight’s development marks a continued union between arguably the game’s best closer and a team that has in recent years come tantalizingly close to postseason paydirt.

With Chapman off the board, names like Will Harris, Will Smith, Daniel Hudson, and Dellin Betances likely represent the upper end of the 2019-2020 free agent relief class. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently took a look at some of this winter’s most interesting free agent bullpen arms.

Chapman Hopes For Extension With Yankees, Will Otherwise Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is pursuing an extension but otherwise plans to utilize the opt-out clause in his five-year contract, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). A decision on that opt-out provision is due tomorrow, leaving his representatives at Magnus Sports with a small window to work out a new deal. (Although, presumably, the two sides have already been in contact well before today’s report.)

Chapman, 32 in February, has two years and $30MM remaining on the five-year, $86MM pact he inked prior to the 2017 season. In the event that an extension isn’t reached, the Yankees will surely issue him a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he’ll reject in order to head into free agency. (That much is evident based on logic and common sense; if Chapman is to walk away from $30MM over the next two seasons, he’d certainly decline less than that on a one-year term even if it included a relatively small bump in terms of yearly salary.)

At 32, another five-year deal for Chapman won’t be there in free agency. Realistically, a three-year deal seems like the most plausible outcome whether it manifests with the Yankees tacking an extra year onto his current deal (as they did with CC Sabathia several years ago) or via an open-market agreement. Chapman’s $86MM guarantee is still a record among relief pitchers, but he’d have the opportunity to set another new record on the open market by taking aim at Wade Davis’ precedent-setting annual salary ($17.33MM). Anything north of $52MM over a three-year term — or even something like $36MM over a two-year term — would give Chapman the relief pitcher records in both total guarantee and AAV.

Chapman’s on-field performance in 2019 was arguably the best of any of his three full seasons under his current deal. He tossed 57 innings — his most since signing — and worked to a pristine 2.21 ERA with averages of 13.4 strikeouts, 4.0 walks and just 0.47 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. That home-run rate is particularly impressive given his hitter-friendly home parks (and several others in the AL East) as well as the league-wide homer spike with this year’s superball. Chapman racked up 37 saves in 2019, marking his seventh 30-save season in the past eight years.

It’s true that Chapman doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. But while he’s no longer averaging 100.4 mph on his heater, this season’s 98.4 mph average still ranked as the sixth-highest among the 458 relievers who tossed at least 10 innings. In all, he’s given the Yankees 158 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with 91 saves, 14.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over the first three years of the deal (including two All-Star nods). He’s added on another 16 1/3 innings of 1.65 ERA ball with a 29-to-7 K/BB ratio in the postseason, though this year’s final impression — a series-ending, walk-off homer to Jose Altuve — wasn’t a favorable note on which to end that otherwise strong run.

Some may point to Craig Kimbrel as evidence that Chapman should be wary of venturing into free agency as a reliever with a qualifying offer attached to his name, but Kimbrel should rather serve as a lesson in the importance of managing expectations. If Chapman goes to market seeking a record-setting guarantee over five or six years, as Kimbrel apparently did, then he’ll indeed have his share of troubles. If he’s seeking out a more palatable four- or three-year pact, he could have an easier time, as was the case with the aforementioned Davis two winters ago when he signed his own record deal in Colorado. Even Kimbrel himself ultimately landed a strong three-year deal worth a prorated $43MM when he ultimately did put pen to paper.

Yankees Decline 2020 Option On Edwin Encarnacion

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The Yankees announced Thursday that they’ve declined their $20MM option on first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion. He’ll instead be paid a hefty $5MM buyout and enter the free-agent market.

Edwin Encarnacion | Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

This has long been viewed as the likeliest outcome; while the size of the buyout at least created a plausible scenario where the Yankees could deem a net $15MM decision worthwhile, doing so would’ve meant tacking on a $20MM luxury tax hit from day one of the offseason. The Yankees would’ve also been paying Encarnacion at an extremely premium rate, as that $20MM salary and net $15MM decision both would’ve topped the $14.3MM guarantee that Nelson Cruz secured in free agency a year ago.

Encarnacion, 37 in January, showed minimal signs of slowing down at the plate in 2019. While he did miss time owing to a wrist fracture and an oblique issue, he turned in a strong .244/.344/.531 batting line with 34 home runs and 18 doubles in just 486 plate appearances. The veteran slugger also slightly pared back his strikeout rate (22.8 percent in 2018, 21.2 percent in 2019) while enjoying a modest uptick in walk rate (10.9 percent in ’18, 11.9 percent in ’19). Pedestrian batting average aside, Encarnacion’s knack for getting on base and his enormous power made his 2019 offensive contributions about 30 percent better than that of a league-average hitter by measure of OPS+ (132) and wRC+ (129).

Even as he’s progressed into his late 30s, Encarnacion has been a consistent middle-of-the-order force. However, the lack of win-now teams with a clear DH opening around the league do somewhat cloud his market. The Astros (Yordan Alvarez), Angels (Shohei Ohtani/Albert Pujols), Athletics (Khris Davis), Twins (Nelson Cruz) and Red Sox (J.D. Martinez) all have their DH spots largely set. Encarnacion could technically fit with the Indians, but they’re unlikely to spend at a high level — particularly not on a DH when they already acquired Franmil Reyes back in July.

The White Sox and Rays stand out as a pair of hopeful contenders who could find DH work for Encarnacion, and a lower-cost deal with the Yankees shouldn’t be expressly ruled out. If Encarnacion is open to signing with a rebuilding team, perhaps a Blue Jays reunion would make some sense. Alternatively, if a team views him as a viable option at first base over the course of a full season, some NL clubs and perhaps an AL club or two (e.g. Twins) would factor into his market.

Even with Encarnacion off the books in the Bronx, the Yankees still have a hefty $204MM committed to next year’s payroll (including projected arbitration salaries and that $5MM buyout). As currently constructed, the Yankees are already projected to be over the luxury tax line. With Encarnacion back on the market, they’ll now likely look to a combination of Luke Voit, Greg Bird and Mike Ford at first base, with the others joining Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in a rotation through the DH spot,

Yankees Interview Chris Fetter, Matt Hobbs For Pitching Coach Vacancy

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9:09 am: The Yankees are also set to interview Arkansas pitching coach Matt Hobbs today, reports Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball (via Twitter). Hobbs was Johnson’s replacement in Fayetteville. Like Fetter, he’s a young, technologically-savvy coach from a major college program. Rogers adds that he expects the Yankees to continue looking into candidates from the amateur ranks.

7:58 am: The Yankees have interviewed University of Michigan pitching coach Chris Fetter in their search to fill the same position, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter). Fetter has drawn “significant interest” from other MLB clubs, including the crosstown Mets, Passan adds, although it’s unclear if he has formally interviewed with any other organization.

After the Yankees fired veteran pitching coach Larry Rothschild Monday, speculation arose that the organization could target a younger voice to modernize their approach to game preparation. Fetter, 33, would certainly fit the bill. He was a ninth-round draft choice out of Michigan in 2009 and has been on staff in Ann Arbor for the last two seasons.

Between his minor-league playing career and return to his alma mater in a coaching capacity, Fetter took on a variety of roles in both the pro and amateur ranks. After hanging up the spikes, he spent some time coaching in the Padres’ organization. Thereafter, he worked as a scout for the Angels for two years before spending one year coaching pitchers at Ball State University. Between Ball State and Michigan, Fetter spent one year as the Dodgers’ minor league pitching coordinator, so he’s not devoid of experience working with pro arms.

Fetter’s involvement in the Yankees’ search, regardless of whether or not he gets the position, highlights the blurring of lines leaguewide between the amateur and professional ranks. Most notably, the Twins hired Wes Johnson as pitching coach from the University of Arkansas last offseason (with great success, if the team’s performance is any indication). While Johnson remains the person to make the leap directly from college to MLB pitching coach, numerous others have moved from the college ranks to take on various roles within MLB organizations in recent years.

Fetter’s pitching staff helped the Wolverines advance to the College World Series finals in 2019. Left-hander Tommy Henry and right-hander Karl Kauffmann were second-round selections of the Diamondbacks and Rockies, respectively, in June’s amateur draft. Right-hander Jeff Criswell, meanwhile, was an all-Big Ten performer as a sophomore and may join Henry and Kauffmann as a relatively high pick in 2020.

Yankees Fire Pitching Coach Larry Rothschild

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10:48am: The Yankees have formally announced that Rothschild will not return to the staff in 2020.

“I want to personally thank Larry for his near decade of commitment to this organization,” general manager Brian Cashman said in the press release announcing the move. “Larry cares deeply about his craft and the pitchers under his tutelage, and he played a significant role in our successes over the past nine seasons. There’s a reason why Larry has had the type of distinguished baseball career he’s had, and it starts with experience and dedication that is difficult to emulate.”

10:30am: The Yankees have relieved pitching coach Larry Rothschild of his duties, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter). He had one year remaining on his three-year contract. ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that the Yankees had discussed moving on (Twitter link). An announcement from the Yankees is expected today, at which point it will become clear whether Rothschild has been offered a different role within the organization. If he does leave, it’s worth pointing out that Rothschild was on the coaching staff of newly minted Phillies manager Joe Girardi for the majority of Girardi’s time with the Yankees.

The 65-year-old Rothschild has been the team’s pitching coach for the past nine seasons. Yankees pitchers finished the 2019 season as a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of ERA and FIP while ranking in the top third of MLB in terms of strikeout percentage. Nearly all of that success came without top starter Luis Severino, who missed most of the season due to shoulder and lat injuries, and without strikeout machine Dellin Betances, who tore his Achilles tendon in his first appearance upon returning from a shoulder issue of his own.

Looking beyond the staff as a whole, however, a number of key Yankees arms turned in pedestrian or generally poor seasons on the mound. James Paxton provided the Yankees with 150 2/3 solid innings, but he was the only regular rotation member with an ERA south of 4.00. Masahiro Tanaka (4.47), CC Sabathia (4.99), and J.A. Happ (5.01), in particular, all authored seasons that didn’t align with organizational hopes and expectations.

That’s clearly a rudimentary assessment of the staff, of course, and any shortcomings can be attributed to more than just Rothschild alone. But the Yankees organization apparently believes it’s time for a new voice to help guide its staff moving forth; Sherman suggests (also via Twitter) that the Yankees are moving toward a more modernized approach to game preparation. While Rothschild wasn’t closed off to modern, data-driven techniques, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a younger coach more rooted in such tactics brought in to take over the staff.

Prior to being named Yankees pitching coach, Rothschild spent another nine seasons as the Cubs’ pitching coach. The veteran pitching guru has extensive experience working as a minor league pitching coordinator and bullpen coach, and he was also the inaugural manager of the Rays — a role he held from 1998 to 2001.

Aaron Hicks To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman provided injury updates on several key players today, according to a tweet from Marc Carig of The Athletic (link). Starter Masahiro Tanaka had a procedure to remove spurs from his right elbow, and slugger Luke Voit had a procedure done to address an injury in his core. However, the most notable revelation is that outfielder Aaron Hicks will ultimately opt for Tommy John surgery to address the flexor strain in his right arm. That surgery will likely place him on an eight-to-ten month recovery timeline.

Needless to say, the last eight months have been something of a worst-case scenario in regard to the seven-year, $70MM extension Hicks signed with the club back in February. Coming on the heels of three mostly excellent years to start Hicks’ Yankees career, the extension appeared to lock in a defensively capable center fielder and top prospect finally rounding into offensive form. With Hicks sidelined for the majority of the upcoming 2020 season, the pact is now likely to be placed under the microscope by New York-area observers.

It’s fair to wonder how Cashman might proceed in attending to Hicks’ absence. Does this increase the chances of Brett Gardner resigning in New York? Gardner filled in capably in center for much of the 2019 season, logging acceptable UZR (3.1) and DRS (-2) metrics at the position. Mike Tauchman also shouldered a portion of the load in covering for Hicks this past season, but it’s uncertain if he would be counted on as a full-time option there for 2020.

In an injury-limited season that did see him manage a return for the Yankees ALCS appearance, Hicks logged a .235/.325/.443 batting line (102 wRC+) in 255 plate appearances. The outfielder will account for a base salary of $10.5MM in 2020.

Latest On Yankees’ Plans Regarding Free Agent Pitcher Gerrit Cole

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After a 2018 offseason that saw them largely sit out the open market auctions for Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, it appears as if the Yankees will take a more active role in pursuing a top free agent in the 2019 offseason. According to Andy Martino of SNY.tv, the “early feel” from conversations with sources is that the New York organization will at least “engage” with Astros ace Gerrit Cole this winter. At the same time, Martino downplays the likelihood of a successful pursuit.

The Yankees-Cole connection is a longstanding one, so it’s no surprise to see it continue now that Cole is nearing the open market. It was Yankees GM Brian Cashman, after all, that almost landed Cole from the Pirates in 2017–although Pittsburgh ultimately passed on a trade package that was said to center around outfielder Clint Frazier. The Yankees also pursued Cole, a lifelong Yankee fan, back in 2008 when it made him the 28th overall pick in the Rule IV draft (Cole ultimately opted to attend UCLA). After two near-misses, the 2019 offseason should offer Cashman his clearest shot yet at bagging the now-29-year-old Cole.

It’s obvious there’s some level of interest. But it’s equally clear there are significant barriers to Cole donning pinstripes. The New York org could find itself bidding against numerous other teams for Cole’s services, many of which play in or near his native Southern California. And luxury tax implications could prove fateful here. While the Yankees could clear roughly $30MM off 2019’s salary outlay merely by letting CC Sabathia, Dellin Betances, Brett Gardner, and Didi Gregorius head for other pastures, the club would still have some bending to do if it wanted to both sign Cole and avoid a second consecutive year paying CBT overages.

The Yankees already have over $130MM in salary commitments on the books for 2019 before accounting for forthcoming arb raises (including those for Aaron Judge and James Paxton). Since they exceeded the luxury tax line by more than $20MM and paid a 20% overage with a 12% surcharge in 2018, they would incur a 30% tax on every dollar spent over the CBT threshold in 2020 if they again exceed the line, per terms agreed to as part of the 2016 CBA. Still, it’s worth noting that these considerations apparently won’t count the New York powerhouse out of the Cole sweepstakes unequivocally–even if Cashman will have to pull on his creative reserves to make such an acquisition feasible.

AL Notes: Lindor, Oakland Stadium, Cash, Boone

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In a lengthy piece for The Athletic, Zack Meisel charts the different courses the Indians could take with regard to the contract status of star shortstop Francisco Lindor (link). As Meisel takes pains to point out, Lindor has taken a chilly posture to the idea that he would offer his club a discount in potential extension talks. Besides speaking vocally in support of 2018 free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper securing “every single penny that they can get“, Lindor was blunt in stating during the 2019 preseason that Cleveland would need to pay him full value if the club is interested in preventing him from reaching free agency after the 2021 season. “Who knows?” Lindor replied to a gathering of reporters during Spring Training when asked if a longterm extension would interest him. “Can you afford to pay me? If you pay me, I’ll stay.” Noting that the Indians have never signed a contract north of $60MM (Edwin Encarnacion in 2016), Meisel wonders if the time may be ripe for the club to consider trade options involving the 25-year-old shortstop.

While the writer ultimately seems to lean toward the idea of keeping Lindor, allowing him to play out his last two arb years, and then living with the possibility that he leaves in 2022, it is tantalizing to imagine the interest Lindor’s name could stir up on the trade market. As a mid-20s, up-the-middle player with five consecutive seasons of four-plus fWAR valuations, Lindor remains one of the game’s steadiest producers and most marketable stars.

More notes from around the American League in advance of Game 2 of the World Series…

  • In an attempt to rid themselves of the current legal quagmire surrounding their new ballpark project, the Athletics have offered to either buy out the city of Oakland’s half share in the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum site for $85 million or enter into a long-term lease, per Phil Matier of The San Francisco Chronicle (link). The team has offered a “community benefits package” to the city that includes affordable housing provisions and apprenticeship programs, with the expectation that the city drops its lawsuit against Alameda County in return. Alameda County, which holds the other half share of the Oakland Coliseum site, recently offered to sell its own half share to the A’s, but a city-initiated lawsuit has stalled that potential agreement. Work on the new Oakland Ballpark is expected to begin in the city’s Jack London Square area in 2021.
  • Rays manager Kevin Cash was honored as one of Sporting News’ several award recipients today, with the outlet naming Cash as American League Manager of the Year (link). Cash was tasked in 2019 with a roster chock-full of trade acquisitions and overlooked players, ultimately leading Tampa to a 96-win season and an ALDS berth. Cash also deserves credit for getting his guys to surmount injury trouble–just two Rays players appeared in over 140 games–although there was another manager in his division who was tasked with some truly Herculean challenges with regard to roster management in 2019. Yankees manager Aaron Boone could be seen as something of a snub for this honor (which is not to be confused with the BBWAA awards that receive far more coverage and recognition) after his Bombers sent an MLB-record 30 players to the injured list en route to an AL East title in 2019.

Pitchers Recently Electing Free Agency

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Since the conclusion of the regular season, a number of players have elected free agency. That right accrues to certain players who are outrighted off of a 40-man roster during or after the season — namely, those that have at least three years of MLB service and/or have previously been outrighted. Such players that accepted outright assignments during the season have the right to elect free agency instead at season’s end, provided they aren’t added back to the 40-man in the meantime.

We already rounded up the position players. Now, here are the pitchers that have recently taken to the open market, along with their now-former teams (via the International League and PCL transactions pages):

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