AL East Notes: Sox Payroll, Chili, Yanks’ Rotation, McKinney, O’s
Whatever the Red Sox may prefer, the odds are that the organization will again go over the luxury tax line in 2018, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains. Indeed, with a hefty arbitration class set to land on top of an already robust set of guaranteed contracts, the team will enter the offseason without much hope of improving unless it’s willing to exceed the $197MM luxury tax line. Of course, the club reset its luxury tax status by staying under the 2017 mark, which reduces the penalty for going back over (but would also begin a new climb upward in the escalating tax scheme).
Here’s more from the AL East:
- As the Red Sox continue looking into candidates for the team’s open managerial position, the team is allowing its coaches to look into their own alternatives. Well-regarded hitting coach Chili Davis is set to visit with the Padres, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (Twitter links). San Diego parted ways with hitting coach Alan Zinter, leaving the club looking at alternatives. Of course, it’s still also possible that a new Boston manager would prefer to keep Davis or certain other members of the staff, but the staff is now free to make its own decisions at this stage.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post posits a scenario in which the Yankees can obtain quite a strong rotation next year without any massive new investments. Of course, doing so would depend not only upon achieving some notable strokes of good market luck but also upon the organization getting the best versions of some pitchers that have had their ups and downs. Most interestingly, Sherman says the “general sense” is that Masahiro Tanaka will not opt out of the three years and $67MM left on his deal. While that’s hardly cheap and still carries obvious risk, it seems like an appealing price tag for a pitcher of his pedigree, given his late-season rebound. Sherman’s most optimistic version of a 2018 staff also includes Shohei Otani, whose destination is anyone’s guess at this stage. All things considered, though, the Yanks’ roation situation does seem much better than might have been anticipated entering the year, due largely to the surge of Luis Severino and emergence of Jordan Montgomery.
- Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying prospect Billy McKinney out at first base in the Arizona Fall League, Bill Mitchell writes for Baseball America, though he’ll also continue primarily to be an outfielder. As Mitchell notes, McKinney showed better than ever after finally reaching the Triple-A level midway through the 2017 season. The 23-year-old slashed .306/.336/.541 with ten home runs in his 224 plate appearances there, though he also walked just four percent of the time (well below his usual rate) and carried a .353 batting average on balls in play that likely reflects both good contact and some fortune. It’ll be interesting to see when and how McKinney is utilized at the MLB level, but he could factor into the team’s depth considerations for the season to come or potentially be dangled as a trade candidate.
- Though the Orioles will obviously need to bring in some new players if they hope for a return to contention, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports writes that the team also must receive improvements from within if it hopes to compete. Consistent production from key players was elusive in 2017, which failed to create a base of output sufficient to maintain a winning record. Even with expectations of some bounceback performances, though, the roster will surely be in need of supplementation; MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down the possibilities.
East Notes: Yankees, Sox, Nats, Orioles
With the Yankees intent on getting under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if they’ll shop relievers Dellin Betances and Adam Warren in the offseason. While the two, especially Betances, are high-end bullpen options, the Yankees may not want to spend the projected $7.5MM on the pair given that their relief corps would still be loaded without one or both. Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle will stick around next season, and all four of them are currently ahead of Betances and Warren in the Yankees’ late-game pecking order. Both Betances and Warren are likely to file for larger arbitration requests than their projected figures, Sherman notes, which could be especially interesting in the former’s case. After all, the relationship between Betances and the Yankees took a sour turn during the arbitration process last winter.
- Landing a big bat, adding depth in their rotation and middle infield, and finding another setup man could be on the Red Sox‘s offseason to-do list, Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald writes. Regarding Boston’s power-needy offense, which we touched on earlier today, Jennings lists impending free agents J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Jay Bruce as possible fits.
- The Nationals’ playoff trip this year ended in more disappointment for the franchise, but manager Dusty Baker’s return still looks likely, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The future of Baker, who doesn’t have a contract for next year, is one of the biggest offseason questions facing the Nationals, opines Janes. In terms of their roster, the Nats will have to make decisions on whether to re-sign impending free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, whether to upgrade behind the plate and in the rotation, and how to assemble their bench, Janes adds.
- The Orioles’ coaches will see their contracts run out at the end of the month, but the team still hasn’t made a final decision on Buck Showalter’s staff for next season, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. If Showalter has his way, all of his assistants – including beleaguered pitching coach Roger McDowell – will return, per Kubatko. However, general manager Dan Duquette didn’t rule out changes when speaking to reporters on the final day of the season. “All those things with the coaches and the staffing, all those things need to be addressed, and I think you have to look carefully at them when you don’t have a strong year and see if there are some adjustments that you can make,” Duquette said.
East Notes: Girardi, Braves, Marlins, Mets/Nats Affiliate
Currently in the last year of his contract, Yankees manager Joe Girardi has been noncommittal about his future in recent weeks. On the heels of a rough few days for Girardi, ESPN’s Buster Olney says he expects Girardi’s time as the Yankees’ skipper to conclude at season’s end (podcast link). Of course, things are beginning to look quite a bit different than they did after a baffling Girardi decision that likely cost them Game 2. Now, the ALDS is tied and the Yankees could well find themselves among the last four teams standing, depending upon the outcome of the decisive game in Cleveland. Regardless of how things play out from this point forward, the long-experienced skipper will surely land on his feet, though Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that some believe Girardi may be interested in some time away from the grind. Interestingly, the Mets have actually talked about Girardi as a possible successor to the ousted Terry Collins, but they “fully expect” him to stay in the Bronx, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets.
More from the eastern divisions:
- Braves director of baseball operations Billy Ryan is a candidate to take over as their general manager, along with the previously reported trio of Royals GM Dayton Moore and Nationals assistants Doug Harris and Dan Jennings, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. However, according to the Nationals, the Braves haven’t yet requested permission to interview anyone from their organization (Twitter links). Of course, no matter how the Atlanta organization proceeds, it has more questions to answer than who’ll take over for resigned GM John Coppolella. As David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, some in the game anticipate the league will uncover broad malfeasance by the organization. There are quite a few remaining questions, writes O’Brien, for a club that now has to operate with care to get back on the right track.
- While the Marlins are now formally transitioning to a new ownership group, there’s still some potential work to be done before Miami-Dade County and outgoing owner Jeffrey Loria go their separate ways. As Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald reports, there could be a battle brewing relating to the publicly-financed ballpark deal that brought Marlins Park into existence. The local authorities have already lined up an auditor to review Loria’s group’s assessment of money owed to the government under the financing deal, which seemingly has some room for interpretation as to how much of the sale proceeds must be shared by the ownership group.
- The Mets and Nationals will both undergo some changes at the highest level of their farm systems, as Mark Weiner of Syracuse.com writes. The New York organization has agreed to buy the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs, which previously had an affiliate agreement with the Nats. It’s not clear at this point where the Washington organization will end up parking its Triple-A club in the future, though the change evidently will not take place until after the 2018 season.
Front Office/Managerial Notes: Marlins, Brewers, Tigers
The latest front office and managerial updates from around the majors:
- Yankees vice president of player development Gary Denbo is leaving the Bombers to become the Marlins’ director of player development and amateur scouting, George A. King III of the New York Post reports (on Twitter). Denbo will work under Michael Hill, who will stay on as the Marlins’ president of baseball operations, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets. Since a group including former Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter agreed to purchase the Marlins in August, there had been plenty of speculation about Denbo heading to Miami. Denbo served in various capacities during multiple stretches with the Yankees dating back to the 1990s and even managed Jeter in the Gulf Coast League in 1992. The two still have a close relationship, paving the way for Denbo to reunite with Jeter in Miami. The Marlins haven’t requested permission to speak with anyone else from the Yankees’ front office, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links).
- The Brewers’ David Stearns-led front office has promoted Karl Mueller to vice president of player personnel, Matt Kleine to director of baseball operations and Scott Campbell to special assignment scout, according to a team announcement. Mueller, a 14-year veteran of Milwaukee’s baseball department, spent the past two seasons in Kleine’s new position. Kleine, who’s entering his 12th year with the Brewers, most recently served as their manager of baseball operations. Campbell, yet another longtime member of the organization (he’s entering his 13th year), was the Brewers’ assistant director of video scouting from 2015-17.
- Royals catching instructor Pedro Grifol is an early candidate to become the Tigers’ next manager, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. Grifol has served in that position since 2014. He also has experience as a major league hitting coach (Royals, 2013-14) and a minor league manager (with low-level Mariners affiliates from 2003-05 and in 2012)
Quick Hits: Phils, Tigers, Judge, Rockies, D-backs
Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond is drawing interest from two manager-needy teams, the Phillies and Tigers, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. Redmond isn’t far removed from managing the Marlins, who went 155-207 on his watch from 2013-15. The former big league catcher played with the Marlins from 1998-2004, giving him familiarity with Tigers general manager Al Avila. The executive was in Miami’s front office for a portion of Redmond’s tenure as a player there.
More from around baseball:
- With the Indians and Yankees facing off in the American League Division Series, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com flashes back five years to a decision that has impacted both franchises. The Indians signed former Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher to a four-year, $56MM deal in December 2012, a move that didn’t pan out for Cleveland but did help lead to the Aaron Judge era in the Bronx. By letting Swisher walk in free agency, the Yankees earned a compensatory draft pick in 2013, the 32nd selection, with which they chose Judge. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland passed on Judge at No. 5 in the first round (the Indians grabbed a different now-Yankees outfielder in Clint Frazier, whom the Tribe traded in a 2016 deal for reliever Andrew Miller), though one member of the club’s scouting department was particularly enamored of the hulking slugger. “One of our scouts liked him over [No. 1 overall pick Mark] Appel, which is crazy to think about,” Indians president Chris Antonetti told Castrovince. “It’s not necessarily how we had him on our board, but one of our scouts felt strongly about it. There were some questions about his size, but he also did a lot of things really well, and he was renowned for having a great makeup.”
- There haven’t been any contract discussions between the Rockies and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez since spring training, according to Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post. The Rockies offered CarGo an extension back then, but he turned it down and proceeded to endure the worst season of his career. The 31-year-old impending free agent batted an uncharacteristically poor .262/.339/.423 in 534 plate appearances, but he did fare much better after the All-Star break (.314/.390/.531 in 207 PAs).
- The Diamondbacks won 93 games during the regular season and broke a five-year playoff drought, leading Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic to highlight some of the good work done by their past decision-makers. While first-year GM Mike Hazen is responsible for the J.D. Martinez, Ketel Marte, Daniel Descalso, Jeff Mathis, Taijuan Walker and Fernando Rodney acquisitions, among others, predecessors Josh Byrnes, Jerry Dipoto, Kevin Towers and Dave Stewart each have a hand in the current on-field product in Arizona – something Hazen realizes. “There are contributions all over the place,” he told Piecoro. “They should be proud of that, I think. We all know in the game things happen. Changes get made. For whatever reason, they get made. But it still doesn’t change the fact that there was good done, too.”
AL Central Notes: Bruce, Alomar, Sano, Vargas, Royals
With Jay Bruce enjoying a big night in Game One of the ALDS, the Indians‘ official Twitter account couldn’t resist a pretty pointed tweet at the Yankees, who came up short in their bid to acquire Bruce from the Mets last summer. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post recaps how negotiations between the Mets and Yankees broke down, not only because Cleveland was willing to absorb all of Bruce’s remaining salary, but also because “the Mets didn’t like one bit the idea of Bruce helping the Yankees’ pennant drive” given the inter-Big Apple rivalry. Bruce was a big contributor down the stretch for the Tribe (hitting .248/.331/.477 with seven homers over 169 PA) then went 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBI in last night’s victory.
More from around the AL Cenral…
- In more Mets/Indians news, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that Tribe first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. “has received strong consideration” for an interview about the Mets‘ managerial opening. Alomar has been a member of Cleveland’s coaching staff for eight years, serving at first base except for a two-year stint as bench coach in 2012-13 that also included a six-game stint as interim manager at the end of the 2012 season. Alomar has been linked to several managerial jobs over the years and has links to the Mets — he played his last season with the Amazins and spent his first two years as a coach in the Mets organization as a roving catching instructor.
- It wouldn’t be a surprise if Miguel Sano requires surgery this offseason, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link) opines, given that the Twins third baseman is “in a lot more pain than many of us realized.” Sano was sidelined on August 19 due to a stress reaction in his left shin, and while he returned for the final three games of the regular season, he didn’t make the roster for Minnesota’s wild card loss to the Yankees.
- Kennys Vargas is interested in the idea of playing in Japan or Korea, and Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wonders if the Twins could be more open to trading the first baseman overseas given their glut of first base/DH options. The Twins rejected overtures about Vargas from NPB and the KBO two offseasons ago.
- The Royals‘ lease at Kaufman Stadium doesn’t expire until 2030, though the club has been in contact with parties exploring the possibility of a new ballpark in downtown Kansas City, Steve Vockrodt of the Kansas City Star reports. According to Kevin Uhlich, the team’s senior vice president of business operations, the talks were merely to “touch base” with the project. “We’re perfectly content where we are, we think it works well. Thirteen years from now, who knows what the situation is going to be? I can’t hold anybody back from doing what they’re doing on their side. We would listen,” Uhlich said. The city is currently funding a study to examine at least four downtown locations for a potential new park. Kauffman Stadium is the sixth-oldest stadium in the majors, though it underwent significant renovations within the last decade.
Cashman: “We Are Getting Under The Threshold Next Year”
The Yankees have long sought to reset their luxury tax penalty clock, and with payroll now finally nearing the tax’s cutoff point, GM Brian Cashman tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post are committed to getting under the $197MM threshold this winter.
“We haven’t had [offseason] meetings like this, but the exclamation point is we are getting under the threshold next year,” Cashman said. “[Greg] Bird is our first baseman moving forward because obviously we believe in him and also because of the cost control. The most important factor is if Bird is worthy enough to be our first baseman and our answer is yes.”
Since the modern luxury tax system was instituted prior to the 2003 season, the Yankees have been over the tax limit every single year, which cost them a whopping $325MM in penalty costs over those first 14 years. Between their financial means and their desire to always be competitive, exceeding the tax threshold was seen as a necessary evil. For instance, the Yankees planned to be under the tax limit several years ago, but after missing the postseason in 2013, they splurged on $555MM in player salaries that offseason to make another push in 2014.
[Related: MLBTR’s Yankees news and information page on Facebook]
[Related: Yankees payroll and information page at Roster Resource]
Now, however, the Yankees can realistically aim to avoid the tax thanks to the number of big contracts finally coming off the books this winter (Alex Rodriguez and C.C. Sabathia) as well as $20.4MM for Matt Holliday and Michael Pineda.
Masahiro Tanaka can also opt out of the three years and $67MM remaining on his contract this winter, though “the strong likelihood is that he does not,” according to Sherman. This is noteworthy of itself, as Tanaka would be one of the top pitchers on the open market this winter if he did exercise his opt-out clause. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne examined some of the pros and cons of Tanaka’s decision in a reader poll in early September, as Tanaka’s 4.74 ERA was somewhat inflated by some early-season home run problems, though his health issues and the qualifying offer could impact his market value. (MLBTR readers polled, by the way, were almost split on Tanaka’s decision, with a slim 52.59% voting that he will opt out.)
Beyond just escaping some large contracts, the bonus for the Yankees is that they’ve been able to stay competitive thanks to pre-arbitration players like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino posting star numbers. Bird missed all of 2016 recovering from shoulder surgery and was limited to just 48 games this season due to ankle problems that required a surgical procedure, though Cashman clearly considers Bird to be another key part of the Yankees’ youth movement.
In counting on Bird as the regular first baseman in 2018, Sherman notes that the Yankees are foregoing a pursuit of top free agents options like Eric Hosmer. Chase Headley or Tyler Austin are on hand as in-house first base options if Bird is hurt again or just struggles, with top prospect Miguel Andujar knocking on the door to take over third base and Gleyber Torres potentially on track to make his big league debut in 2018 if he recovers as expected from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees will have positional flexibility with the DH spot open, and could use it to hand out more at-bats to players on rest days, or to lure Shohei Otani to New York.
Beyond just Hosmer and the other first basemen, the firm intent to avoid the luxury tax would seem to take the Bronx Bombers out of the running for most of the biggest free agents available this winter. Many of the most high-priced trade candidates could also be off the table, unless the dealing team is willing to eat some money or if the Yankees are able to unload a big salary back in return. This isn’t to say that New York couldn’t still be active in free agency, perhaps attracting veteran depth pieces who could be willing to play at a relative discount for a shot at a World Series.
Getting under the luxury tax threshold just once would send the Yankees from the highest level of tax payments all the way back to zero. In true Yankees fashion, of course, the team seems likely to exceed the level once again in the 2018-19 offseason, when the likes of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, and several other superstars hit the market in arguably the most distinguished free agent class of all time. The new CBA imposes stiffer penalties for exceeding the tax limit, both by how much a team exceeds the threshold and if it is exceeded in multiple years, though even that may not necessarily be an issue for the Yankees given their wave of young talent both now and in the near future, plus even more high-priced veterans (Headley, David Robertson, Brett Gardner) coming off the books after 2018.
How They Were Acquired: New York Yankees Wild Card Roster
After selling off pieces at the 2016 non-waiver trade deadline, the Yankees have successfully returned to the postseason with a stacked core of young talent that looks to have them positioned for long-term success in the AL East. The composition of their roster varies significantly from their opponent in tonight’s AL Wild Card game, the Minnesota Twins, who developed the bulk of their roster via the draft and international free agency.
The Yankees have their share of homegrown talent — including the likely Rookie of the Year and possible AL MVP Aaron Judge — but they’ve acquired nearly half of tonight’s active roster via trade. Just five of the Yankees’ current players came via free agency, only two of whom signed in the past calendar year, as the team has trended more and more toward stockpiling young talent to build a cost-controlled foundation and to serve as capital on the trade market. Here’s how general manager Brian Cashman and his staff assembled one of the most talented teams in the American League…
[Related: New York Yankees Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]
- HOMEGROWN (8)
- Brett Gardner, OF: Drafted 3rd Rd ’05
- Dellin Betances, RP: Drafted 8th Rd ’06
- Austin Romine, C: Drafted 2nd Rd ’07
- Gary Sanchez, C: International Free Agent (D.R.) July ’09
- Greg Bird, 1B: Drafted 5th Rd ’11
- Luis Severino, SP: International Free Agent (D.R.) December ’11
- Aaron Judge, OF: Drafted 1st Rd (32) ’13
- Tyler Wade, INF/OF: Drafted 4th Rd ’13
- ACQUIRED VIA FREE AGENCY (5)
- CC Sabathia, SP: December ’08 (MIL) — Signed to an eight-year, $161MM contract (signed extension at point of opt-out decision in 2011)
- Jacoby Ellsbury, CF: December ’13 (BOS) – Signed to a seven-year, $153MM contract
- Chase Headley, 3B/1B: December ’15 (re-signed): Signed to a four-year, $52MM contract
- Matt Holliday, DH: December ’16 (STL) – Signed to a one-year, $13MM contract
- Aroldis Chapman, RP: December ’16 (CHC) — Signed to a five-year, $86MM contract
- ACQUIRED VIA TRADE (11)
- Didi Gregorius, SS: December ’14 (ARZ) — Acquired in the three-team deal that sent Shane Greene to the Tigers and Robbie Ray to the D-backs
- Aaron Hicks, OF: November ’14 (MIN) — Acquired in the trade that sent John Ryan Murphy to the Twins
- Chasen Shreve, RP: January ’15 (ATL) — Acquired in the trade that sent Manny Banuelos to the Braves
- Starlin Castro, 2B: December ’15 (CHC) — Acquired in the trade that sent Adam Warren to the Cubs
- Chad Green, RP: December ’15 (DET) — Acquired in the trade that sent Justin Wilson to the Tigers
- Clint Frazier, OF: July ’16 (CLE) — Acquired in the trade that sent Andrew Miller to the Indians
- Adam Warren, RP: July ’16 (CHC) — Re-acquired in the trade Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs
- Sonny Gray, SP: July ’17 (OAK) — Acquired in the trade that sent Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo and James Kaprielian to the A’s
- Todd Frazier, 3B/1B: July ’17 (CWS) — Acquired in the trade that sent Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin, Tito Polo and Tyler Clippard to the White Sox
- Tommy Kahnle, RP: July ’17 (CWS) — Acquired in the trade that sent Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin, Tito Polo and Tyler Clippard to the White Sox
- David Robertson, RP: July ’17 (CWS) — Acquired in the trade that sent Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin, Tito Polo and Tyler Clippard to the White Sox
- ACQUIRED VIA WAIVERS (1)
Of the players currently on the roster, the only Yankees that could leave via free agency either this offseason or next are Gardner, Sabathia, Headley, Holliday, Robertson, Warren and Todd Frazier. With talent like Gleyber Torres, Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, Estevan Florial and many others still on the horizon and plenty of money to spend on established big leaguers, the Yankees look dangerous for years to come.
Who Will Win The World Series?
Aside from Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton‘s pursuit of 60 home runs, the final day of Major League Baseball’s regular season won’t bring much drama. Colorado on Saturday became the last team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot and will be one of 10 clubs vying for World Series glory over the next month-plus. Here’s a rundown of the participants by league and seeding:
National League
1.) Los Angeles Dodgers (record: 103-58; most recent title: 1988): The Dodgers are loaded with stars and depth, which explains how they easily exceeded the 100-win mark despite enduring a 1-15 stretch from Aug. 26 through Sept. 11. They recovered from that nightmarish 16-game showing over the season’s final couple weeks and once again look formidable entering the postseason. While the Dodgers have scored the second-fewest runs of this year’s playoff teams, they’ve still managed to pace all NL clubs in position player fWAR. Plus, with a Clayton Kershaw-fronted rotation and a Kenley Jansen-led bullpen, their staff is atop the NL in pitching fWAR.
2.) Washington Nationals (record: 97-64; most recent title: never): The Nationals cruised to an NL East crown this year despite losing center fielder Adam Eaton in April and having to go without arguably their best player, right fielder Bryce Harper, from mid-August until late September. Harper suffered a knee injury that looked like a season-ender when it happened, and while the missed time derailed his MVP chances, he’s back to lead a lineup that also includes other standouts in Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman. On the pitching side, it seems ace and Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer avoided a serious hamstring injury during his start on Saturday. If that’s the case, Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez could be the premier starting trio in the playoffs. They’ll hand off to a bullpen that has featured offered plenty of shaky performances in 2017, though midseason additions Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler have helped stabilize the Nationals’ relief corps.
3.) Chicago Cubs (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2016): At this time a year ago, Chicago was putting the finishing touches on a 103-win regular season and preparing to enter the playoffs as the odds-on favorite. Ultimately, the Cubs lived up to the billing last fall and broke a 108-year title drought in an unforgettable World Series against the Indians. They haven’t been as sharp this year, owing in part to worse performances from their pitching and defense, but are still laden with talent. There’s no shortage of quality position players on hand, including reigning MVP Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, but the Cubs will need more from their staff – particularly Jake Arrieta, who’s dealing with a hamstring issue right now, and Jon Lester.
4.) Arizona Diamondbacks (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2001): One of this year’s surprise teams, the Diamondbacks rode an underrated starting staff and a top 10 offense (by runs scored) to a playoff berth. Starters Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, Patrick Corbin and Taijuan Walker have all turned in good to great seasons, which is why the D-backs’ starters lead the NL in fWAR. They also have a pair of offensive superstars in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, though he had a horrid September that likely ruined his MVP chances, and outfielder J.D. Martinez. The latter has been a revelation since coming over from the Tigers in a July trade, having smashed 29 home runs in 61 games and batted .304/.369/.746 in 255 plate appearances. If you’re looking for a potential Achilles’ heel, no playoff entrant has a worse wRC+ (84) against left-handed pitchers than Arizona. That doesn’t seem to bode well for a team that will face the Dodgers, whose southpaws include Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson, if it wins the NL wild-card game.
5.) Colorado Rockies (record: 87-74; most recent title: never): Primarily on account of NL MVP candidates Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, the Rockies are near the top of the league in runs scored, which is what you’d expect from a team that plays half its games at Coors Field. The Rockies managed to break a seven-year playoff skid this season largely because of an improved pitching staff that sits eighth in the majors in fWAR. Still, despite the presence of Jon Gray, their rotation doesn’t look particularly imposing relative to other playoff teams’ staffs. They do, however, feature a few highly capable relievers in Greg Holland, Chris Rusin, Pat Neshek and Jake McGee.
(Poll link for app users)
Who will win the NL?
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Dodgers 35% (5,225)
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Cubs 24% (3,648)
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Nationals 24% (3,583)
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Diamondbacks 14% (2,132)
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Rockies 3% (515)
Total votes: 15,103
American League
1.) Cleveland Indians (record: 101-60; most recent title: 1948): At 48-45, the reigning AL champions were a mere three games above .500 on July 18. Since then, they’ve run roughshod over the rest of the league en route to a 53-15 mark, including a historic 22-game winning streak from Aug. 22 to Sept. 14. The Indians lost a meaningless game to the White Sox on Saturday, but that was just their fourth defeat in the past 35 contests. Needless to say, they’re heading into the playoffs on a roll. As you’d expect, Cleveland’s roster is chock-full of excellence. MVP hopeful Jose Ramirez and all-world shortstop Francisco Lindor are at the helm of a talent-rich offense, one that supports what could be an all-time great pitching staff from top to bottom. Ace/Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber, righty Carlos Carrasco and super reliever Andrew Miller, one of the faces of last year’s postseason, deservedly grab the most headlines, but good luck finding any weak links among the other pitchers the Tribe will use in the playoffs.
2.) Houston Astros (record: 100-61; most recent title: never): With a league-high 892 runs and a 121 wRC+, it’s a wonder how anyone gets the Astros out. Much of the damage has come from AL MVP front-runner Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, the latter of whom missed significant time earlier this season, but ancillary pieces such as Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick and Yuli Gurriel have all been no worse than very good at the plate. And then there’s the one-two pitching punch of recently acquired ace Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, not to mention a deep starting staff/bullpen behind them. If there’s one big concern here, it’s that Houston may be the worst defensive team in the playoffs.
3.) Boston Red Sox (record: 93-68; most recent title: 2013): This year’s Red Sox have deviated from past Boston teams that used the likes of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez to pound opponents into submission. In fact, this is the first playoff-bound Red Sox club since 1995 to qualify for the postseason without scoring at least 800 runs. Nevertheless, they have several especially well-rounded position players (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi and the banged-up Dustin Pedroia, to name a few) who have done enough in the field to make Boston an elite defensive outfit. That defense supports the AL’s foremost southpaw, Chris Sale, and superstar closer Craig Kimbrel. Boston is entering the playoffs with some concerns in its rotation, though, including the recent struggles of Sale and the yearlong issues 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has had. Fortunately for the Sox, starter Drew Pomeranz quelled some late-season concerns with an encouraging start against the Astros on Saturday.
4.) New York Yankees (record: 90-71; most recent title: 2009): Baby Bombers Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez have more than lived up to the hype this season, combining for 85 home runs and 11.7 fWAR in 1,203 PAs. Fifty-one of those long balls have come from Judge, an OPS machine and an AL Rookie of the Year shoo-in whose 8.2 fWAR leads the majors. The rest of the Yankees’ offense isn’t exactly subpar, either, as a laundry list of their other hitters have notched above-average seasons at the plate. And New York’s pitching staff could be built for October, with an incredibly strong bullpen and a rotation that features perhaps the AL’s third-best starter, Luis Severino. One of the major questions regarding the Yankees is which versions of Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka will show up in the postseason – if the team gets by the wild-card game, that is. Gray allowed between four and six earned runs in three of five September starts, while Tanaka was a mixed bag throughout the regular season. He did conclude the slate with a seven-inning, 15-K shutout against the Blue Jays on Friday, though.
5.) Minnesota Twins (record: 84-77; most recent title: 1991): In terms of teams, there probably hasn’t been a better story during the regular season than the Twins, who were 103-game losers and owners of the majors’ worst record a year ago. Adding to the improbability of their Cinderella run to the playoffs, the Twins were sellers at this year’s trade deadline, when they dealt starter Jaime Garcia to their wild-card opponent, the Yankees, and Kintzler to the Nationals. However, Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer & Co. were undeterred in the face of those deals and the late-summer absence of slugging third baseman Miguel Sano, who missed over a month with a left shin injury but just returned this week. Given its relatively underwhelming pitching staff, Minnesota is obviously a long shot to claim its first World Series in 26 years. For now, the Twins are focused on the Yankees, who have historically owned Minnesota in the playoffs. But New York’s past triumphs came during series. The wild-card round is a one-off, increasing the odds of an upset. The Twins’ No. 1 starter, Ervin Santana, allowed two or fewer runs in 20 of 33 starts during the regular season. If he’s that stingy against the Yankees on Tuesday – an admittedly tall order – an upset could be in the offing.
(Poll link for app users)
Who will win the AL?
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Indians 47% (7,512)
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Astros 24% (3,841)
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Yankees 15% (2,428)
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Red Sox 9% (1,391)
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Twins 5% (762)
Total votes: 15,934
And now for the most important question (poll link for app users)…
Who will win the World Series?
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Indians 35% (4,899)
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Dodgers 15% (2,081)
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Astros 12% (1,645)
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Cubs 11% (1,611)
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Yankees 10% (1,458)
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Red Sox 5% (741)
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Nationals 5% (658)
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Twins 3% (403)
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Diamondbacks 3% (401)
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Rockies 1% (157)
Total votes: 14,054
CC Sabathia Plans To Pitch In 2018
Veteran left-hander CC Sabathia plans to continue his career in 2018, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 37-year-old impending free agent may have taken the mound as a Yankee for the last time on Saturday, when he tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings of four-hit, six-strikeout ball in a win over the Blue Jays.
Whether New York advances past Minnesota in Tuesday’s AL wild-card game could help determine if Sabathia will get the ball again as a Yankee. The potential Hall of Famer was instrumental in the team’s regular-season success, pitching to a 3.69 ERA over 148 2/3 innings. Although Sabathia didn’t post gaudy strikeout and walk numbers (7.26 K/9, 3.03 BB/9), he helped offset that by logging a groundball percentage of 49.9 and, according to FanGraphs, the majors’ sixth-best hard contact rate among starters with at least 140 frames.
While the Yankees and Sabathia may part ways in the offseason, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team re-sign the franchise icon – especially considering fellow starters Masahiro Tanaka and Jaime Garcia could hit the market. Formerly with the Indians and Brewers, the 2007 AL Cy Young winner joined the Yankees prior to the 2009 season on a seven-year, $161MM contract and has turned into one of the most successful starters in their storied history. He helped the Yankees to their most recent World Series title in 2009, the first of five straight 200-inning seasons with the club, and has recorded a 3.75 ERA and accounted for 30.5 fWAR/28.5 rWAR across 255 starts (1,657 2/3 frames) in the Bronx.
Sabathia endured a rough, injury-impacted stretch from 2013-15, a period in which his ERA ballooned to 4.81 in 69 starts, but has overcome knee issues to reemerge as a capable starter over the past couple years. The 6-foot-6, 300-pounder is finishing up the five-year, $142MM extension he signed in 2011, when the Yankees gave him a raise to prevent an opt-out. Sabathia’s next deal obviously won’t approach his expiring pact in length or value, but he clearly made a case for a solid short-term payday during the regular season. The only question is whether it’ll come from the Yankees or another team.