Latest On Cuban Market
With the crop of six-year service time free agents thinning noticeably, attention has turned to the fascinating group of players readying to sign after leaving their native Cuba. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has been among the most active observers on this still-developing segment of the market, and delivers a host of interesting information in his latest post on the subject.
While I recommend a full read of his work, here are some highlights:
- Hector Olivera is the lone name who figures to have immediate impact. (Fellow middle infielder Jose Fernandez reportedly remains in Cuba after having been thought to have left with intentions of seeking a MLB deal.) McDaniel agrees with Baseball America’s Ben Badler that Olivera has the potential for immediate impact, but says there are significant doubts about his long-term prospects. For one, Olivera’s medical history is not just limited to sports injuries, but includes a significant case of thrombosis. Then, there is the fact that Olivera’s age cannot be confirmed with certainty and even some indications that scouts are questioning why he is “fatigued earlier in workouts than an athlete of his size, strength and age should.”
- Ultimately, McDaniel concurs with Badler that Olivera is seeking and could obtain a $10MM+ annual guarantee. But McDaniel cautions that he expects it to run over just two or three seasons (with an outside chance at a fourth guaranteed year) with options and incentives included.
- The other name making noise at the recent international showcase was Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez, who McDaniel has in the mid-to-upper 90s with a plus slider and promising change. The rest of the package checks out for his age, with McDaniel saying that Alvarez’s raw talent and progress to date is on the same level as the very best high school arms entering the draft. Alvarez expects to have him ready to sign in the next month or two and does not seem inclined to wait for the market to turn over on July 2nd, which would mean the Cubs and Rangers would not be eligible to sign him. (Should he wait to sign, Alvarez would lose the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, D’backs, and Angels as potential suitors.) While this particular market is in the very earliest stages of development, McDaniel says that Alvarez is plainly superior to Yoan Lopez, who just got a $8.25MM bonus from Arizona.
- McDaniel also provides an update on 21-year-old infielder Andy Ibanez, who is seemingly no longer showcasing. That could mean that he is in the process of (or will soon be) sorting through offers. While the demand side of the equation is hard to peg in his case, McDaniel says he expects one of the bonus-busting teams listed above to land him at a potential cost of between $5MM to $12MM.
- The most exciting name out there remains Yoan Moncada. Though there is not much new to pass on in his case, Badler does present some video of Moncada’s past plate appearances against several notable young arms. One executive tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links) that the bidding on Moncada could reach nine figures in terms of total investment (given the near-100% tax for signing him). Rosenthal also says that the Moncada case may be a catalyst for debate on the issue of how amateur rights are secured.
AL East Notes: Eovaldi, Cecchini, Albers, Blue Jays
The Yankees‘ primary focus with trade acquisition Nathan Eovaldi will be on improving his offspeed offerings, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post. Despite Eovaldi’s imposing velocity, the 25-year-old generates a surprisingly low number of strikeouts. And, while he struggles more against left-handed hitters, his lack of whiffs isn’t as a result of any platoon issue (6.5 K/9 vs. RHB in his career; 6.0 K/9 vs. LHB). He’s already begun working with pitching coach Larry Rothschild on improving those pitches and would do well to improve his change-up to give him a true out pitch versus lefties. As it is, lefty hitters have batted .466 with a .655 slugging percentage against Eovaldi’s change in his career. The Yankees, Martin writes, were drawn to Eovaldi because of his velocity (95.9 mph fastball from 2013-14), age and the durability he showed in 2014, throwing 199 2/3 innings.
A few more notes from around the AL East…
- Red Sox third base prospect Garin Cecchini isn’t worried about the team’s addition of Pablo Sandoval, he tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “I take it as a positive for my career,” Cecchini explains. “I get to hang out with a great player like that and work with him in spring training. That has to help me. It’s easy to say, ‘Where is my spot?’ but I can’t worry about that. You have to create your own opportunity.” Of course, creating that opportunity won’t be easy, barring an injury to Sandoval. And even in that instance, left fielder Hanley Ramirez could slide over to third base, as the Sox have tremendous outfield depth. Cecchini acknowledged to Abraham that a position change or trade could be the eventual outcome. “You hear that kind of stuff. But I don’t look too much into it. … I understand Pablo is in front of me but I hope I can do something to help.”
- The Blue Jays had two scouts watch Matt Albers‘ recent workout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Albers turned down multiple offers to sign with the White Sox, according to Nicholson-Smith, though it’s not clear if Toronto was one of the teams to make an offer. Shortly after Albers signed, the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich tweeted that Albers had offers from four teams besides the ChiSox.
- Nicholson-Smith also spoke with someone familiar with the arbitration process who estimated that the Blue Jays‘ win over Josh Donaldson in yesterday’s arbitration hearing may have saved the club upwards of $6MM over the next several winters, as each salary is based upon the previous year’s figure (Twitter link).
Quick Hits: Tanaka, Sabathia, Royals, Cuba, Extensions
Yankees starters Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia are generating positive reports, team pitching coach Larry Rothschild tells Mark Didtler of the Associated Press (via the LoHud Yankees Blog). Tanaka has “felt good” while going through a normal winter progression, says Rothschild. The pair’s progress this spring will be critical for the Yankees. If Tanaka’s partially torn UCL or Sabathia’s balky knee are problematic, the club would seem a prime candidate to add pitching.
- In the final analysis, the Royals‘ run with James Shields was an example of the team “beating the system,” according to Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star. By selling high on Wil Myers to add Shields, Kansas City added the arm it needed before cashing him in for a new first-round pick through the qualifying offer system.
- The Red Sox and Orioles have at least begun looking into the idea of playing a spring game in Cuba this year, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. While it appears unlikely that will happen in such short order, it certainly hints at how quickly things could move in that arena.
- Signing players to big extensions is obviously risky, and rarely works out in the way that many expect when a deal is struck. But that does not mean that they fail to deliver good value, or that teams are irrational in reaching them, Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus writes.
Cafardo On Vazquez, Cabrera, Papelbon
Yankees GM Brian Cashman feels that the potential is there for a big year, but he’s not guaranteeing the AL East title or anything of that sort, as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. “We have a lot of talent,” he said. “Like other teams, we have some ifs. If we get good comebacks and our rotation stays healthy, if our team stays healthy, we’re a good team.” Additions like Andrew Miller will be counted on for production, but the Bombers will really hope for some vintage performances from guys like Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and embattled third baseman Alex Rodriguez. Here’s more from today’s column..
- The Phillies continue to insist on Blake Swihart in any deal for Cole Hamels and there’s been no movement to ask instead for Christian Vazquez. The Red Sox, meanwhile, refuse to part with their top young catcher. Cafardo suggests the Phillies could have a better chance of working out a deal with the Padres as they are more open to moving catching prospect Austin Hedges.
- There are no substantive talks between the Mets and Everth Cabrera‘s camp at the moment as they seem committed to Wilmer Flores. It was reported earlier this winter that the Mets had interest in the former Padres shortstop. A major league source with knowledge of Cabrera’s situation indicated to Cafardo that he has made great strides personally.
- Cafardo writes that the Blue Jays remain interested in Phillies reliever Jonathan Papelbon. A report from earlier this month characterized the Blue Jays as a “major long shot” to land the closer due to financial reasons.
- General Managers around the league can’t stop raving about 19-year-old Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada. “He could be the next Robinson Cano/Chase Utley, but more Cano. That’s the kind of potential bat we’re talking about,” one National League talent evaluator said. An NL GM told Cafardo that Moncada “may be better than [Yasiel] Puig or [Jose] Abreu or [Yoenis] Cespedes or [Jorge] Soler.” Meanwhile, one GM tells Cafardo that the middle infielder would still require some minor league seasoning before breaking into the majors.
- There’s a good amount of interest in Brandon Beachy for when he’s finally ready to sign. The 28-year-old owns a lifetime 3.23 ERA over 46 big league starts, with a 3.34 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, and 3.39 SIERA.
East Notes: Jaso, Yankees, Flores
This year will mark the first Spring Training of John Jaso‘s career where he won’t be working out as a catcher, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. “It’s definitely going to be different,” says Jaso. “I have no idea. The Big Papi program? I don’t know. … This will be kind of the first time for me.” Topkin notes that the Rays could use Jaso at catcher if there’s an emergency, but he’ll spend most of the season at DH after having concussion issues in each of the last two seasons. The Rays acquired Jaso and two prospects from the Athletics in the Ben Zobrist deal last month, and president of baseball operations Matt Silverman said at the time that he wanted to put Jaso “in the best position to succeed.” Potentially preventing injury by moving Jaso out from behind the plate would certainly help with that. The Rays could also use Jaso at first or in the outfield. Here’s more from the East divisions.
- GM Brian Cashman said on WFAN Friday that the Yankees had finished their “heavy lifting” this offseason, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com notes. Previous reporting had indicated that the Yankees might pursue in James Shields, but Cashman’s comments indicate that isn’t the case. As Kuty suggests, the idea that the Yankees won’t be a top bidder for Shields is consistent with their approach to the offseason so far — they re-signed Chase Headley and added Andrew Miller, but they’ve otherwise steered clear of top free agents after adding Jacoby Ellsbury, Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran last offseason.
- Wilmer Flores isn’t listening to criticism about the Mets’ shortstop situation, Matt Ehalt of the Record writes. The Mets didn’t add a shortstop this winter and are heading into the spring with Flores as their likely starter, leading to plenty of second-guessing from commentators and fans. “People doubt a lot of people,” says Flores. “I’m not worried about that. I’m just going to go out and play.” Flores hit .251/.286/.378 last season, but he’s hit well in the high minors, and the Mets like his offensive potential. His defense remains open to question, although UZR has liked his glove work in small sample sizes in his first two partial seasons in the Majors. As Mike Petriello wrote for Fangraphs last month, concerns about the Mets’ shortstop situation might be somewhat misplaced. The position is weak throughout the Majors, and Steamer projects Flores will be the 19th most valuable shortstop by WAR in the big leagues in 2015, ahead of some of the top options available this offseason, like Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Drew.
Minor Moves: Salcedo, Trepagnier, Constanza, Figueroa
Before diving into the latest minor league transactions, check out Steve Adams’ piece about how much work can go into negotiating these seemingly “minor” contracts. Here are today’s moves, with the newest transactions at the top of the post…
- The Braves traded infielder Edward Salcedo to the Pirates in exchange for right-hander Bryton Trepagnier, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Atlanta signed Salcedo to a $1.6MM bonus in 2010 and he entered the season as the 12th-ranked prospect in the Braves’ system according to Baseball America. He has yet to find much success at the plate, hitting .230/.297/.375 over 2447 minor league PA and posting only a .651 OPS over 413 PA at the Triple-A level last season. Trepagnier, a 41st-round pick in the 2010 draft, has pitched mostly as a reliever in his five-year pro career, posting a 4.19 ERA, 1.59 K/BB rate and 7.1 K/9 over 204 innings, none above the high-A ball level.
- The Braves outrighted outfielder Jose Constanza to Triple-A Gwinnett, according to the International League’s transactions page. Atlanta designated Constanza for assignment last week. The 31-year-old has spent the last four seasons in the Braves organization, including 240 plate appearances at the Major League level.
- The Yankees have signed Cole Figueroa to a minor league contract with an invitation to their Spring Training camp. The team announced the move as part of its full list of spring invitees. Figueroa owns a .288/.377/.388 slash line over 2944 career plate appearances in the minors, and he made his Major League debut last season, posting a .611 OPS over 49 PA for the Rays. Figueroa was released by Tampa Bay in November.
James Shields Rumors: Wednesday
We learned last night that the market for James Shields was taking shape, with multiple offers on the table and an expectation that the righty would be signed by the end of the week. Today figures to deliver plenty more reporting on the best remaining free agent, and we’ll keep tabs on it here.
- The Cubs have entered the fray and are “kicking the tires” on Shields, reports David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com. Kaplan, too, hears that Shields is expected to choose a team by the end of the week, and the Cubs are among those he is considering. Kaplan tweets that the Cubs have been waiting to see where the Shields market ended up before getting too involved. He adds that Shields has interest in Chicago, with his relationship with manager Joe Maddon being a factor.
Earlier Updates
- Shields’s agent, Page Odle, has indicated to some clubs that his client is “getting close to resolution,” according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter).
- While it remains unclear exactly where they stand, the Marlins “remain in talks” involving Shields, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. As he writes, the club is more interested in a three-year deal than in going to four, with its pursuit complicated by payroll projections and the undecided situation of Dan Haren.
- If Miami is in, several other at-least-hypothetical landing spots appear to be out: The Cardinals prefer to plug Carlos Martinez in the rotation rather than signing Shields, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Rangers have not modified their intentions to avoid major free agent pitching investments, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter). And the always-unpredictable Athletics are not involved, per a tweet from Heyman.
- Two more west coast teams, the Giants and Angels, are also not currently in the running, Heyman reports (Twitter links). San Francisco had been in conversations in the four-year, $80MM range with Shields earlier in the offseason, per an Olney tweet, but ended up pursuing (and signing) Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong when they were rebuffed.
Latest On Yoan Moncada’s Market
The news that 19-year-old Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada is now eligible to sign with Major League teams launched an outpouring of speculation, and we may not have to wait too long for resolution to the situation, as the infielder tells MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez he hopes to sign in the near future. “My goal is to sign with a team soon, start training with them, and make it to the Major Leagues as fast as I can with whichever team that might be,” Moncada told Sanchez. Moncada could sign as soon as this month, according to Sanchez, who reminds that the infielder has already had private workouts for the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers and Brewers. The first three teams listed are reportedly the heavy favorites to sign Moncada, though Sanchez notes that other teams will schedule private workouts now that Moncada is unblocked. He also adds that contract negotiations have intensified since news broke that he was cleared to sign.
Here are the latest updates on the market for Moncada, who has captured the intrigue of baseball fans around the world…
- Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons spoke to three different GMs whose teams have been previously connected to Moncada and was told that they are not pursuing him after all (Twitter link). The unnamed GMs each pointed to the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers as the favorites, although each warned to keep an eye on the Tigers as well.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that there is an expectation among rival executives that the Athletics will make a serious run at Moncada, as they did with Yoenis Cespedes three offseasons ago.
- In a full article (ESPN Insider required/recommended), Olney writes that there is also a belief among execs that the Dodgers‘ financial restraint to this point in the offseason could make them more aggressive on Moncada, with some believing that they will ultimately land him. Olney adds that many execs feel the Red Sox‘ current surplus of Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Pablo Sandoval and Mookie Betts will limit their interest and limit how far the team is willing to stretch. As Olney puts it, Boston simply isn’t as desperate for Moncada as some of their competition.
Yoan Moncada Market Notes
With the evening’s news that prized young Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada is free to sign, additional information has begun to roll in. It isn’t hard to see why he has generated so much attention. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, Moncada may not have quite the certainty of an otherwise generally comparable prospect such as Corey Seager, but could reasonably be valued in the same range as — and, indeed, ahead of — a young player as heralded as Miguel Sano. That would make Moncada one of the best dozen or so pre-MLB properties in the game.
Here’s the latest:
- Moncada is expected to sign soon, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, although he does have workouts scheduled with individual teams through the middle of this month. The list of teams he has already worked out for does not appear to have been expanded upon from prior reports, with Sanchez noting (via Twitter) that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers, and Brewers have all had private looks.
- With Moncada now eligible to sign, and a long stretch remaining before the July 2 market flips over, Badler tweets that the Cubs and Rangers are probably out of the mix. Moncada could still theoretically wait to sign with one of those teams — each of which is currently prohibited from paying all but relatively small international signing bonuses for blowing their allotment in past seasons — but that seems rather unlikely.
- Some clubs believe the Dodgers are a “strong favorite” to add Moncada, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. Los Angeles has made no secret of its intention to pursue the talented 19-year-old.
- Another expected front-runner, the Red Sox, have remained fairly tight-lipped about Moncada, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports.
- Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski confirmed that his club had expressed interest and held a workout for Moncada, but otherwise would only acknowledge that Moncada is a talented player, as James Schmehl of MLive.com reports.
James Shields Expected To Sign By End Of Week
Reports this evening suggest that the wheels are now turning for free agent righty James Shields. With multiple offers in hand, says Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter), the veteran is expected to sign by the end of the week.
As I wrote yesterday, while Shields and agent Page Odle face a difficult task of maximizing value in the month of February, time remains for his market to re-develop. It appears that could now be taking place, with the list of suitors potentially growing this evening.
The Cardinals have now “shown interest” in Shields, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. While the St. Louis brass has insisted that the club feels good about its rotation depth, there are enough areas of concern that another arm could make good sense — particularly one of Shields’s quality.
Meanwhile, a rival general manager says that he believes the Yankees are “actively pursuing” Shields, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. New York certainly could justify buttressing its starting five: it probably has an even greater need to upgrade at the back end and protect against uncertainty in the projected rotation than do the Cards. On the other hand, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that he hears the team is not changing its decision not to pursue top-of-the-market starters.
It certainly appears that both clubs have the financial wherewithal to make such a move. St. Louis has been judicious with committing future assets and maintains good forward-looking payroll flexibility. And New York can never be counted out from dipping into its coffers when opportunity arises.
As for other possibilities, the Padres are also believed to have engaged in recent discussions with the Shields camp, Morosi tweets. Another busy club, the White Sox, are almost certainly set to enter the spring with their current array of talent, GM Rick Hahn tells Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (via Twitter).
While both of these clubs have been mentioned as possible landing spots for Shields at various points in the past, it was never entirely clear whether that was based on analysis or real internal consideration. These latest reports appear to push the needle toward the latter. Obviously, the entry of either or both would be excellent news for Shields’s leverage.