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Tanaka & Yankees Notes: Workload, A-Rod

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Masahiro Tanaka's workload is a serious concern, Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan writes. In the past five seasons, while pitching mostly in his early 20s, Tanaka has averaged more than 113 pitches per start, more than any pitcher in the U.S. big leagues during that period. MLB executives adore Tanaka's stuff (and, presumably, the results he's gotten in Japan), however, so they ignore warning signs about his pitch count. Those pitch counts don't mean it's certain that Tanaka will fall apart once he signs a big contract, of course — Passan points out that Yu Darvish also had an intense workload in Japan, and he's done just fine in the states. Here's more on Tanaka and the Yankees.

  • The Yankees' offseason has been characterized by a need to wait for Alex Rodriguez and for Tanaka, writes NJ.com's Brendan Kuty. A decision on the status of Rodriguez's appeal could soon arrive, and once the Yankees know, they'll have a much clearer idea of their 2014 budget. That, in turn, will help clarify their pursuit of Tanaka.
  • If the Yankees sign Tanaka, they'll go past the $189MM luxury-tax threshold regardless of what happens with Rodriguez, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. In the previous two offseasons, the Yankees "operated as if they were in luxury-tax jail," passing even on the relatively inexpensive Russell Martin and avoiding big-ticket players like Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton. Now, after missing the playoffs with an injury-riddled roster in 2013, the Yankees appear prepared to exceed the $189MM threshold. They need Tanaka "desperately," given their current rotation.
  • MLB teams' pursuit of Tanaka will be "insane," writes FanGraphs' Tony Blengino. Not only is Tanaka an excellent pitcher, he's only 25, which means he could be a better investment than most free agents, who are older. Also, unlike other Japanese talents, he's essentially a free agent. He doesn't have to deal with the posting system from previous years, in which Japanese teams, rather the players, reaped the benefits of the free market. Finally, teams have plenty of money to spend.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Tanaka, Yankees, Orioles

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The Red Sox are pretty much the only big market team not heavily connected to Masahiro Tanaka, but a case could be made that they should be involved, writes John Tomase of the Boston Herald.  Boston already has six starters under contract with a rich minor league system that could deliver three or four more in the next two years and they're right against the $189MM tax threshold, but the 25-year-old is a special talent.  More out of the AL East..

  • For the Yankees rotation to go from a concern to a strength, the Bombers will need a lot to go right, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Sherman says the Yanks have to sign Tanaka, have Manuel Banuelos and Michael Pineda return to health and a high-level form, and see Ivan Nova be the pitcher he was upon returning full-time to the rotation last July.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com looks at the Orioles roster and finds that surprisingly few players were signed as major league free agents.
  • The Rays are excited about the defensive play that new catcher Ryan Hanigan will bring, writes Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.  Tampa Bay acquired the backstop from the Reds earlier this month in a three-team deal and promptly gave him a contract extension.

Cafardo On Tanaka, Jimenez, Cruz, Lackey, Ichiro

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In this week's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that the Orioles owe it to their fans to take a shot at a championship by bolstering the roster.  The O's moved Jim Johnson to save on his expected $10MM salary for 2014 but the nixing of Grant Balfour's deal leaves them without a proven closer.  The Orioles, with a few fixes, could be exciting and fun to watch, but they need more if they want to win it all.  More from this week's column..

  • Cafardo cautions not to sleep on the Red Sox in the Masahiro Tanaka hunt and one AL scout says it’s the perfect time for the Red Sox to strike. “They have veteran pitchers in the final year or two years remaining on their deals,” he said. “They’ll be clearing out a lot of payroll soon. I know they feel they have good young pitching on the horizon, but Tanaka should be a very good No. 2 or No. 3 starter on any staff. I would think with their emphasis on pitching, they would get into it.” The Yankees, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers figure to be the most aggressive and the Angels, Phillies, Royals, and Blue Jays are expected to get into it.
  • Will the Red Sox's experience with Daisuke Matsuzaka scare them off of Tanaka?  “I don’t think that can enter their thinking. I’m sure they would have gone after Yu Darvish in retrospect,” said one National League GM.
  • Cafardo recently spoke with a few GMs who feel the Yankees may wind up with Ubaldo Jimenez, even if they land Tanaka.  “He had an excellent second half, has great stuff, and he has the type of personality that would fit New York,” one GM said. “He doesn’t let things get to him. He’s good at shrugging off things and turning the page.”  If the Yankees ink both pitchers, it's pretty difficult to see them staying under the $189MM mark.
  • Nelson Cruz is the best available free agent among position players, but his demand of four years at $75MM has turned off teams.  While other PED guys such as Jhonny Peralta have cashed in, teams are worried that Cruz, who more relies on his power is of greater concern for teams who worry that being off the stuff could hurt his power numbers.
  • John Lackey’s name has come up consistently this winter, but the Red Sox aren’t motivated to deal him.  That could change, but the club is enthused about his $500K option for 2015.
  • It'll be interesting to see if the Yankees can move Ichiro Suzuki given their crowded outfield.  The Giants remain a possibility, Cafardo writes.
  • The Dodgers could still trade from their outfield surplus.  When it comes to Matt Kemp, of course, teams want to see how he rebounds from shoulder and ankle surgeries.
  • With Brian McCann aboard and Francisco Cervelli as backup, Yankees catcher Austin Romine is very much available.  
  • Johan Santana is getting closer to making a decision on a minor league deal with a team. There’s been some speculation about the Twins since Santana still resides in Fort Myers, Fla., where the Twins have spring training.  A small-market team such as the Astros could also have some interest.

Quick Hits: Tanaka, Eaton, Cardinals, Reds

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Mike Hegan, a longtime former player and broadcaster, passed away on Wednesday at age 71.  Hegan posted a .712 OPS in 2452 PA over 12 seasons with the Yankees, Brewers and Athletics from 1964-77, picking up a spot on the 1969 AL All-Star team as a Seattle Pilot (before the franchise moved to Milwaukee) and earning a World Series ring with the A's in 1972.  After retirement, Hegan moved to the broadcast booth and spent 12 seasons as a Brewers TV broadcaster before moving to his hometown of Cleveland in 1989 and spending 23 seasons calling Indians games on both TV and radio.  The MLBTR staff sends our condolences to Hegan's family and friends.

Here's the latest from around the majors…

  • Masahiro Tanaka's posting period opened this morning and the Yankees have already contacted Tanaka's agent Casey Close, Newsday's Marc Carig reports.  Earlier today on MLBTR, we collected more Tanaka-related news, and I opined that Tanaka's market may be larger than expected.
  • The Mariners will also be "a factor" for Tanaka, a baseball official tells Roger Rubin of the New York Daily News.  “They have a following in Japan. They enjoyed what they had when Ichiro (Suzuki) was on the team.  They want the chance for moves like getting [Robinson] Cano to pay off.  And they envision [Felix] Hernandez paired with Tanaka at the top of the rotation," the official said.
  • The White Sox are confident that the torn left UCL that sidelined Adam Eaton for half of the 2013 season is no longer a problem, GM Rick Hahn told CSN Chicago's Dan Hayes.  “The elbow injury wasn't something we felt, and our medical people felt, would be a long‑term issue….We certainly paid attention to what he looked like coming back from that injury, but it was the kind of thing that shouldn't be a lingering issue," Hahn said.  Hayes also talks to Eaton himself about his recovery from the injury.  Chicago acquired Eaton as part of the three-team trade with the D'Backs and Angels that sent Mark Trumbo to Arizona and Tyler Skaggs/Hector Santiago to L.A.
  • The Cardinals' low-profile additions of Peter Bourjos and Mark Ellis could pay big dividends and make the team better in 2014, MLB.com's Lyle Spencer opines.
  • The Reds' window for making a big trade "may be closing," MLB.com's Mark Sheldon writes.  The team should make a few moves in January, however, and could add a free agent bat if a discount price can be found.
  • Former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi contacted SB Nation's Rob Neyer about Bavasi's trade of Shin-Soo Choo to the Indians in 2006.  While Bavasi said he was under pressure from Seattle's upper management to improve the club, he doesn't excuse himself for moves that backfired, saying "the Choo and [Asdrubal] Cabrera trades were a product of my own stupidity and good work by the Indians."
  • Sportsnet.ca's Ben Nicholson-Smith lists three potential suitors for 10 of the top remaining free agents.
  • Finally, it was on this day in 1919 that arguably the most important trade in baseball history was agreed upon — Red Sox owner Harry Frazee's deal to sell Babe Ruth to the Yankees.  CBS Sports' Dayn Perry has some of the history behind the infamous sale, and MLB FanCave tweeted a picture of the actual transfer contract.

Masahiro Tanaka Links: Thursday

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After the Rakuten Golden Eagles made the long-awaited decision to post ace Masahiro Tanaka, the posting period opened this morning. Any team that is willing to pay his former club a posting fee of $20MM will have the right to negotiate with Tanaka over the next 30 days (a full refresher on the new rules can be found here). Tanaka's posting period comes to a close on Jan. 24 at 4pm CT, meaning that there could be as many as 700 more hours of drama, rumors and speculation regarding his ultimate destination. Here are today's Tanaka-centric links…

  • MLB.com's Richard Justice writes that teams see Tanaka not as a seven-year deal but rather as an investment to make an immediate impact that could yield a spot in the 2014 playoff picture. The Yankees would like to make an offer to close the bidding process before it truly begins, writes Justice, but several other teams likely feel the same.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while Tanaka's new agent, Casey Close, does not have Scott Boras' public reputation of bargaining hard, he does have that reputation within the industry. Close is no stranger to large deals, as he represents Derek Jeter and Zack Greinke among others.
  • Sherman also runs down a list of eight teams that he feels to be the Yankees' most serious competition for Tanaka: the Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Mariners.
  • In a piece for FOX Sports, Gabe Kapler writes that he spoke to one Major League GM who thought Tanaka would sign for something in the six-year, $105MM neighborhood (not including the posting fee). Kapler feels that Tanaka's age and the potential bidding war will up the price to something in the range of seven years and $125MM (plus the $20MM posting fee). He also cautions that Tanaka is far from a sure thing and will need to display impeccable command of his fastball or add some movement to it in order to flourish in the Majors.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post can't imagine Tanaka signing for anything less than $100MM (Sulia link).
  • The next 30 days will tell us if the Dodgers are hitting their spending limit — self-imposed or otherwise — or if their lack of big spending thus far in the offseason has merely been as a result of waiting for Tanaka, writes Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. Hernandez notes that the team already has five players under control through 2017 and would like that number to rise to seven with extensions to Clayton Kershaw and Hanley Ramirez.

Minor Moves: Matt Daley, Chris Narveson

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Here are today's minor moves from around baseball.

  • After non-tendering Matt Daley in early December, the Yankees have agreed to a new minor league deal with the 31-year-old right-hander, per the team's transactions page. Daley pitched well in six innings for the Yankees in 2013 and owns a career 4.38 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 86 1/3 big league innings.
  • Lefty Chris Narveson has signed with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, the Japan Times reports. Narveson pitched in the Brewers' rotation in 2010 and 2011, but missed much of the 2012 and 2013 seasons due to injury. He pitched well this winter for Licey in the Dominican. He will reportedly make $850K plus incentives.

Orioles & Yankees Notes: Tanaka, Rodney, Igawa

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Orioles fans are upset over the team's trade of closer Jim Johnson, and they want the team to become more active in the free-agent market, CSN Baltimore's Rich Dubroff writes. Dubroff suggests that Masahiro Tanaka would be a good target, but even if the Orioles don't aim that high, there should be plenty of starting pitching available, with Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Bronson Arroyo still on the market. Santana or Jimenez would require the O's to forfeit their first-round draft pick, however, and they likely won't want to do that. Fernando Rodney would be a good choice to replace Johnson at closer, Dubroff argues. Here are more notes on the Yankees and Orioles.

  • The Orioles need to "make a statement" after backing away from their agreement with Grant Balfour, argues MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko. Kubatko suggests that now would be a good time for the Orioles to begin signing free agent pitchers to four- or five-year deals, despite their reluctance to do so in the past.
  • The Yankees need to sign Tanaka to have a good offseason, Richard Justice of MLB.com writes. The Yankees are unlikely to stack up well against their AL East rivals in Boston and Tampa with a rotation headed by C.C. Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova, Justice argues.
  • If the Yankees sign Tanaka, he won't be the first Japanese ace they've acquired, Jay Schreiber and David Waldstein of the New York Times point out. They plucked Kei Igawa from the Hanshin Tigers prior to the 2007 season, paying $20MM plus a $26MM posting fee. Igawa pitched a total of 71 2/3 innings for New York, posting a 6.66 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. Of course, Tanaka is a different pitcher, with statistical and scouting profiles more convincing than Igawa's. Schreiber and Waldstein point out, however, that Tanaka threw 160 pitches in a recent start, which is certainly a legitimate red flag.

Reactions To Masahiro Tanaka’s Posting

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Finally, after weeks of will they/won't they, Rakuten Golden Eagles president Yozo Tachibana announced late last night that Masahiro Tanaka will be allowed to make the jump to MLB, giving clubs the best Christmas gift they could have hoped for.  Now, the question is, where will Tanaka land?  The latest on the Japanese sensation..

  • According to people with knowledge of the Yankees' thinking, Tanaka has long been an attractive target, especially with a rotation that could use an impact arm, writes Marc Carig of Newsday.  With the retirement of Andy Pettitte, the Yankees are left with just three established starters in CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and Ivan Nova.  The Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers are also among the clubs expected to make strong plays for Tanaka.
  • According to NHK, Japan’s public broadcaster, Rakuten team president Yozo Tachibana acknowledged his reservations about the new posting system but said the team did not want to hold back a star player from a challenge he wishes to embrace, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  The new posting system, of course, means that the Golden Eagles can't take in more than the maximum $20MM posting fee.  The 25-year-old is coming off a year in which he went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA in the Japanese Pacific League.
  • The starting pitching market has been largely held up due to clubs waiting on a resolution to the Tanaka situation and we should see some serious movement once he signs with an MLB club, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
  • "I'm grateful to the team for allowing me to try. Now I've made a first step," Tanaka said, according to the Associated Press. "I hope I would receive offers from as many teams as possible so I have a wider option." 
  • For the Yankees to land Tanaka, they'll have to barrel past the $189MM luxury tax threshold, writes Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger.  Either way, they probably can't reach that goal without a full-season suspension for Alex Rodriguez and they hope to know where they stand with that in early January.
  • “[Nippon Professional Baseball] is becoming a feeder system for the M.L.B.,” Robert Whiting, who has written several books on Japanese baseball, told Ken Belson of the New York Times. “Japanese pro baseball has all but disappeared from prime time network television.”

Quick Hits: Downs, Nationals, Papelbon, Reynolds

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Last month, reliever Darin Downs found out the Astros had claimed him off waivers from the Tigers as he was driving his wife to deliver the couple's second child, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. "I had a couple missed calls, a couple text messages. So I call one of the front office staff from the Tigers, he says, 'Oh, you've just been claimed by the Astros.' I'm like, 'All right, cool. I'm going to the hospital,'" Downs says. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • A year removed from their nightmarish 2012 season, the Red Sox are again a desirable team for free agents, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes. Some of that, Lauber notes, has to do with the team's willingness to spend money. The team also seems to have rehabilitated its reputation among players after reports of 2012 locker-room disarray. But another important consideration is simply that every season is different. "I always chuckle inside when you see the quote from a free agent, 'I want to go to a contender,'" says Jonny Gomes. "Oh, you mean the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008? Or the Oakland A’s in 2012? That contender? I know anything can happen. Every single year, good, bad and in between, is like an individual season. All you have to do is turn the page."
  • Reliever Jim Hoey is trying to return to the big leagues, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes tweets. Hoey, who will be 31 next week, last appeared in the Majors in 2011, when he pitched in the Twins' bullpen. He is perhaps best known for being traded (with minor-leaguer Brett Jacobson) for J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris in 2010. He pitched briefly in the Brewers' system in 2013, and also pitched in independent ball.
  • The Nationals have a variety of extension candidates and may not have an easy time deciding how to handle them, writes Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com. Pitcher Jordan Zimmermann and shortstop Ian Desmond are both open to extensions, Kerzel notes, but GM Mike Rizzo also needs to think about whether to extend Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg long-term (if that's practical — Scott Boras represents both of them, and one would think his demands would be through the roof). An extension for Zimmermann could exceed Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal, possibly winding up somewhere near $85MM, Kerzel suggests. Both Zimmermann and Desmond can become eligible for free agency after the 2015 season.
  • The decline in Jonathan Papelbon's stuff last season could make other teams reluctant to trade for him, and Jason Collette of Fangraphs shows exactly what went wrong. Papelbon's velocity dropped as the season progressed, which allowed batters to make more frequent contact with his fastball. Hitters also made more contact with his splitter when he left it in the zone. While Papelbon's superficial statistics (a 2.92 ERA and 29 saves) were reasonable, his peripheral numbers mark him as something like an average closer at this point. Since he's making $13MM a year, that's a problem, and it could be tricky for the Phillies to deal him.
  • The Yankees have had talks with Mark Reynolds about a deal to return next season, but the corner infielder appears set to sign somewhere else, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports. Reynolds, 30, joined the Yankees in August after being released by the Indians, and hit .236/.300/.455 in 120 plate appearances, with characteristically high strikeout totals.

Cubs Claim Brett Marshall

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The Cubs have claimed right-hander Brett Marshall off waivers from the Yankees, according to MLB Daily Dish's Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). Marshall was designated for assignment last week when the Yankees made the signing of Carlos Beltran official.

Though he made a trio of relief appearances at the big league level in 2013, the bulk of his season was spent in Triple-A where he posted a 5.13 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 25 starts. He ranked sixth among Yankees prospects just one year ago, drawing praise for having the best changeup in their system. In 2012, Marshall posted a 3.52 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 158 1/3 innings at Double-A Trenton. Still just 23 years old, he's young enough to give the Cubs reason for optimism.

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