Austin Riley Diagnosed With Fractured Hand
The Braves announced Monday that Austin Riley has been diagnosed with a fractured right hand that will sideline him for six to eight weeks. With just under six weeks remaining on the regular season schedule, it could very well prove to be a season-ending injury for the two-time All-Star. Riley was hit by a pitch in yesterday’s game, and while initial imaging was inconclusive, an MRI performed Monday revealed the fracture. Atlanta will presumably make a corresponding roster move to place Riley on the injured list and bring up another infielder (e.g. Nacho Alvarez Jr.).
Atlanta also announced that right-hander Reynaldo Lopez has been reinstated from the injured list, with right-hander Jimmy Herget being optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett in his place. He’s been out since Aug. 2 due to inflammation in his right forearm.
The loss of Riley is another crushing blow for a Braves club that has been hammered by major injuries all season. Even on Opening Day, Atlanta lost catcher Sean Murphy to an oblique strain that ultimately cost him about two months of the season. That set the tone for a 2024 campaign that has seen Spencer Strider (torn UCL and internal brace surgery), Ronald Acuna Jr. (torn ACL), Ozzie Albies (fractured wrist), A.J. Minter (hip surgery) and Michael Harris II (Grade 2 hamstring strain) all endure considerable, if not season-ending injuries.
Riley, 27, hasn’t been at his best all season but has, until now, been in the lineup nearly every day. He’s also picked up the pace considerably since a dreadful start to the season. Riley lugged an awful .228/.295/.353 slash into the month of June … and has since erupted with a .275/.339/.531 that falls right in line with his career averages. In a lineup that’s frequently been without some of its best hitters, he’s been a constant alongside designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. Now, it’s very possible that Riley’s 2024 season will draw to a close with 110 games played — although the specific wording of the team’s announcement leaves the door cracked for Riley to perhaps play a few games late in September if he heals more quickly than expected and the Braves are still in Wild Card contention.
In some ways, the fact that the Braves are even still in possession of a Wild Card spot is remarkable. Strider pitched in just two games and yielded seven runs in nine innings prior to landing on the shelf with what became a season-ending ligament injury. Acuna played in only 49 games. Acuna, Albies (90), Harris (72) and Murphy (50) have all played in fewer than 100 of the Braves’ 124 games this season.
While the Braves have had exceedingly poor injury luck, they’ve also had several things go right. Atlanta has improbably gotten not only a healthy season out of Chris Sale but a vintage, Cy Young-caliber showing out of the 35-year-old lefty, who’s thrown just 10 fewer innings this season than he did in the entire four-year period preceding the 2024 season. Right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach has debuted and outpaced expectations. Reynaldo Lopez has improbably gone from reliever to Cy Young-caliber results himself.
Still, the loss of Riley is a gut-punch, particularly given how well he’d been hitting since the calendar flipped to June. The top of the Braves’ order will now need to rely on the aforementioned Ozuna, deadline pickup Jorge Soler and a trio of stars who’ve struggled through down seasons: Harris, Murphy and Matt Olson. Atlanta has gotten solid production out of some bargain-bin pickups like Ramon Laureano and Whit Merrifield, but the offense they’re trotting out on a nightly basis moving forward won’t resemble the powerhouse lineup they were expected to field this season.
Riley will likely be replaced by some combination of Alvarez and Luke Williams, neither of whom has looked comfortable against big league pitching this season. Alvarez, the organization’s top position-player prospect, still has just 38 games of Triple-A experience. He’s hit well there, but the 21-year-old went 3-for-30 in his first taste of the majors earlier in the summer and likely still needs some additional development time. He’d never played above A-ball prior to 2024. Williams is 2-for-17 in the majors this season. The 28-year-old journeyman has seen action in parts of four big league campaigns and is a .218/.277/.284 hitter in 283 trips to the plate.
At seven games back and now down another star player, Atlanta doesn’t have much of a path to overtaking the Phillies for the NL East crown. The Braves currently hold the final NL Wild Card spot but are only two games up on the division-rival Mets and four games up on the Giants. The Cardinals, Cubs and Reds are all within six games of that final postseason slot as well.
Diamondbacks Place Ketel Marte On Injured List
The Diamondbacks announced that second baseman Ketel Marte has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a sprained left ankle. Infielder/outfielder Pavin Smith has been recalled as the corresponding move.
Marte has been battling an ankle injury for over a week now. Last Saturday, when playing the Phillies, catcher Garrett Stubbs slid into second while trying for a hustle double. Marte received the throw coming in from left field and tried to apply a tag to Stubbs when the two collided but his leg got stuck awkwardly underneath the Philly catcher (video from MLB.com).
Arizona’s second baseman was removed from that game in obvious pain but has tried to play through the injury since then. He was in the lineup for last Monday’s game but appeared to be in pain again and was removed from that contest. He then missed a few days but returned to the lineup on Saturday, serving as the designated hitter. Yesterday, he wasn’t in the starting lineup but entered as a pinch-hitter but appeared to aggravate his injury on a check swing and was removed before finishing his at-bat.
After those failed attempts to stay on the field, he will now spend at least ten days on the shelf. Manager Torey Lovullo doesn’t seem too concerned, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com on X, saying that they believe it’s a low-grade sprain and that Marte just needs some rest. Whether he needs to miss more than the 10-day minimum or not remains to be seen, but it’s a huge blow to the Diamondbacks regardless as Marte has been putting himself into the MVP conversation with a stellar season.
Marte has 30 home runs this year and a 10.4% walk rate, while limiting his strikeouts to a 17.8% clip. His .298/.370/.560 batting line translates to a 152 wRC+, indicating he’s been 52% better than league average at the plate. Only ten qualified major leaguers have a better mark than that this year. He’s also stolen six bases and received strong grades for his defense at the keystone. Only six players have more wins above replacement than his 5.4 this year, per FanGraphs. Francisco Lindor and Shohei Ohtani are the only two National League players ahead of him there.
Subtracting that kind of production would hurt any team, but the Snakes also have Christian Walker and Gabriel Moreno on the injured list at the moment, meaning they head into this week without three of their best regulars.
The D’backs have been playing very well of late and currently sport a record of 69-56. They are only four games back of the Dodgers in the West and have possession of the second National League Wild Card spot, but teams like Atlanta, the Mets and others are in striking distance. The Snakes will be trying to stay ahead of that pack in the coming weeks but will be doing so without Marte, Walker or Moreno on the roster, and it’s unclear when any of those three could be returning to the club.
Kevin Newman has been playing a lot of second base in Marte’s stead in the past week and may continue doing so. He’s a solid defender but has hit .262/.305/.361 in his career for a 78 wRC+. His .281/.314/.382 batting line this year is slightly better but still translates to a subpar 92 wRC+.
Smith’s recall is likely just about giving the club an extra bat, as he’s only played first base and the outfield in his career. Blaze Alexander is likely the club’s current backup at the three positions to the left of first base, supporting Newman, Geraldo Perdomo and Eugenio Suárez.
Reds Place Hunter Greene On 15-Day Injured List
9:10 pm: After tonight’s game, Reds manager David Bell said Greene’s MRI looked encouraging (per Goldsmith). While he added that it was too soon to offer a timeline for Greene’s return, the skipper seemed optimistic his ace could be back on the mound once his minimum 15-day stint on the IL is up.
7:51 pm: The Reds have placed All-Star starting pitcher Hunter Greene on the 15-day injured list with right elbow soreness, the team announced. The club did not make a corresponding move before tonight’s game against the Royals at Great American Ball Park.
Greene, 25, was utterly dominant in his last start, holding the Cardinals to four hits and one run over seven innings. He struck out eight and walked only one. However, he reportedly felt soreness in his elbow following the outing (per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The pain temporarily went away, but it returned while he was playing catch today. President of baseball operations Nick Krall told Goldsmith that the IL stint is precautionary as of right now, and Greene will need an MRI before the team can decide on any next steps.
The young flamethrower underwent Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in 2018. While his elbow has remained healthy since then, Greene spent several weeks on the IL with a shoulder strain in 2022 and hip soreness in 2023. At long last, it seemed like 2024 would be the year he put everything together. His star potential has long been evident, but he was finally enjoying star-caliber results, with a 2.83 ERA through a career-high 143 1/3 innings pitched. Unfortunately, his excellent season has now been put on hold. It’s unclear how serious the issue might be, but it’s naturally worrisome when a hard-throwing pitcher with a history of UCL problems goes on the IL with elbow pain.
With Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson on the 60-day IL, Cincinnati’s starting depth is already quite thin. Other starters on the 40-man roster include Connor Phillips and Lyon Richardson, but Phillips was sent to the Reds’ training complex in June amid tremendous struggles at Triple-A (10.11 ERA in 14 GS), while Richardson has recently been pitching out of the bullpen at Triple-A amid a difficult season of his own (4.58 ERA in 23 G).
Thus, the Reds will likely need to add a pitcher to the 40-man roster to start in Greene’s place on Monday. They already have an open spot to do so. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com names 23-year-old right-hander Julian Aguiar and 31-year-old right-hander Connor Overton as potential options, but he notes that the team is not planning to promote 22-year-old righty Rhett Lowder, one of the organization’s top prospects, from Double-A.
Red Sox, Rich Hill In Agreement On Minor League Deal
Today: The Red Sox and Rich Hill have formally agreed on a minor league deal, reports Ian Browne of MLB.com. The veteran will report to Triple-A Worcester on Tuesday.
August 15: The Red Sox and Rich Hill are close to finalizing a minor league contract, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI (X link). It’d be his fourth separate stint in Boston if he gets to the big leagues by the end of the season. Including minor league deals, it’ll be his eighth contract with the organization.
Those have spanned multiple front offices going as far back as 2010. Hill is a Boston-area native who is clearly comfortable with the organization. Staying close to home is appealing. Hill waited to sign until this late in the season in large part so he could coach his son’s Little League team in Milton, Massachusetts this spring.
While he won’t step directly onto the Sox roster, Hill could make a few appearances with Triple-A Worcester to get into game shape. It’d be a surprise if the Red Sox don’t call him up at some point before season’s end. Hill reportedly drew attention from the Yankees, Dodgers and Twins, among others, during his recent throwing sessions.
Boston is a sensible fit beyond the geographical connection. The Red Sox went into deadline season with questions about their rotation depth. They brought in James Paxton in a trade with the Dodgers. He only made it through three starts before suffering a partially torn right calf that’ll probably end his season. That temporarily left the Sox with a four-man rotation of Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck. The Sox are planning to reinstate Cooper Criswell from the virus-related injured list to start tomorrow against the Orioles. He’s likely to step into the fifth starter role, but he’d been working in relief for a couple weeks before going on the shelf. The Red Sox may want to keep a close eye on his pitch counts.
From the start of the season, the Sox’s rotation depth has been one of their biggest questions. They lost Lucas Giolito before the year started. Garrett Whitlock went down in April with an oblique issue. He hurt his elbow while building back up and underwent season-ending surgery. Houck, Crawford, Pivetta and Criswell all stepped up as the Sox had a surprisingly strong rotation for the first few months. They’ve had a much tougher time of late.
Red Sox starters have a 5.28 earned run average since the All-Star Break, a better mark only than that of the Angels, White Sox, Rockies and Rangers. Crawford and Pivetta have gotten battered by the home run ball. Houck’s strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff as he’s gotten to a career-high workload. Only Bello has maintained or improved upon his early-season production.
Hill isn’t going to single-handedly salvage the group. The 44-year-old southpaw turned in solid back-of-the-results from 2021-22. He had a tougher time last year, allowing a 5.41 ERA through 146 1/3 innings. Much of that came in a dismal 10 outings for the Padres after they acquired him at the deadline. Hill had a more reasonable 4.76 ERA in 22 starts for the Pirates before the trade. The Sox will hope they get something closer to last year’s first half version without Hill needing to work a full season. If he gets to the majors, he could potentially work as a tandem starter with Criswell or push the righty back into a multi-inning relief capacity.
It has been an atypical situation. Hill has floated the possibility of a late-season signing for a few years but hadn’t committed to it until last offseason. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo writes that the 19-year veteran declined major league offers from Texas, Pittsburgh and Oakland over the winter. Beyond the family considerations, he pointed to the opportunity to ensure he was joining a team that had a chance to compete for a playoff position. Boston is 2.5 games behind the Royals for the American League’s final Wild Card spot with six weeks to play.
Hill would be eligible for postseason play if the Sox qualify (assuming the contract is finalized shortly). That’s true regardless of whether he’s on the MLB roster by the end of the month. A player only needs to be in the organization at the start of September — not on the 40-man roster — to be eligible for the playoffs. The league office routinely allows players who were on minor league deals at the start of September to qualify for the playoffs as substitutes for another injured player.
Image courtesy of USA Today.
Rockies Release Elias Diaz, Promote Drew Romo
3:10pm: The Rockies announced that Diaz has been given his unconditional release. He’s a free agent who can sign with any club at any point. Romo’s contract has indeed been selected from Triple-A Albuquerque in his place.
Colorado also reinstated left-hander Lucas Gilbreath from the 60-day injured list. A spot on the 40-man roster was already cleared by yesterday’s outright of Josh Rogers. Gilbreath has been out since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2023.
1:55pm: In place of Diaz, the Rockies are expected to select the contract of catching prospect Drew Romo, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. He’ll presumably slot into the Rockies’ primary catching role down the stretch and audition for a potential long-term gig behind the plate in Denver.
1:45pm: The Rockies are releasing catcher Elias Diaz, whom they placed on outright waivers earlier this week, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. Once he’s cleared release waivers, he’ll be free to sign with any club. The new team would only owe Diaz the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster or injured list. The Rockies will be on the hook for the remainder of this season’s $6MM salary.
That Diaz is slated to be released is an indicator that no other club was willing to take on his remaining $1.45MM salary (plus the $50K fee for placing a waiver claim). Colorado could’ve simply kept Diaz on the roster and attempted to waive him again later this month when he was owed less money, but it seems they’ll instead part ways with the veteran backstop entirely, granting him extra time to settle in with a contending club down the stretch. Diaz had been in the final season of a three-year, $14.5MM contract with the Rockies and is a free agent at season’s end anyhow, so the move to release him appears to primarily be about affording him the ability to latch on with a contending club while also clearing time for a look at Romo.
Releasing Diaz now will naturally raise questions as to why the Rockies didn’t move Diaz for even a modest return at last month’s trade deadline. It’s a fair gripe on the surface, although it stands to reason that if Diaz went unclaimed when he’d cost other teams around $1.5MM in total, there probably wasn’t a robust trade market for him when he was owed more money and the Rockies were seeking prospect value in return.
It’s still plenty arguable that the Rox should’ve sold high on him at last year’s trade deadline or perhaps in the offseason, but the Rox instead added some modest pieces and entered this year with visions of a more competitive club than they’ve ultimately fielded.
Diaz, 33, is hitting .270/.315/.378 on the season. That’s a solid-looking line, particularly for a catcher, though metrics like wRC+ (80) and OPS+ (88) feel he’s been below-average at the plate after adjusting for the Rockies’ hitter-friendly home environment. Either of those marks is passable for a backstop with solid defensive grades, however, and Diaz is just that. He’s delivered markedly improved framing grades in 2024 and been credited with plus marks in Defensive Runs Saved (5) and Outs Above Average (5).
Diaz has never been a plus hitter outside of a strong 2018 showing with the Pirates, but he owns a .254/.306/.406 line over the past four seasons, during which he’s averaged 17 homers per 162 games played. He’s not an elite catcher but is a serviceable option who’s had his share of big league success and experience. At the very least, he’s an upgrade over the backup option for many postseason hopefuls. And as long as he signs with a new club on or before Aug. 31, he’ll be eligible for his new team’s postseason roster.
As for the 22-year-old Romo, he was the No. 35 overall pick by the Rockies back in 2020 and ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects as recently as the 2022-23 offseason. He’s considered to be a glove-first catcher but has shown more offense in the upper minors across the past two seasons, including a quality .297/.339/.499 batting line in a very hitter-friendly Albuquerque setting this season (103 wRC+).
Scouting reports at FanGraphs, Baseball America and other outlets praise the switch-hitting Romo as a plus defender with a plus arm but well below-average power. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen noted that Romo had some uncharacteristic throwing issues last year (19% caught-stealing rate), but he’s bounced back in a big way with a heartier 29% rate in 2024.
With Diaz released and fellow backstop Jacob Stallings also playing on an expiring contract, Romo ought to be given a full run as the team’s starting catcher. Colorado doesn’t have any other near-ready catching prospects — Hunter Goodman can catch some, but they’ve used him more in the outfield — and certainly doesn’t have another one with Romo’s defensive chops.
Romo and Goodman could potentially shoulder the workload behind the plate down the stretch, depending on what comes of Stallings, who’s hitting .266/.367/.457 in 216 plate appearances while playing on a one-year, $2MM contract. Speculatively speaking, if the Rox are comfortable with Goodman collecting more playing time behind the plate, they could make a similar move with Stallings to the one they’ve made with Diaz.
Tigers To Promote Jace Jung
The Tigers are calling up top infield prospect Jace Jung from Triple-A Toledo, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. The 12th overall pick of the 2022 draft will make his major league debut tomorrow evening against the Yankees.
Jung joins what’ll be a suddenly younger Detroit infield. The Tigers are also bringing up deadline acquisition Trey Sweeney, a 2021 first-round pick whom they acquired in the Jack Flaherty deal. That duo will join rookie second baseman Colt Keith as the Tigers evaluate young players who could be key pieces of next year’s team. Keith has had an up-and-down debut campaign at the keystone, as he’s had very poor months of April, June, and August around huge performances in May and July.
Once Detroit moved Keith from third to second base, they slid Jung to the hot corner. He has started 68 games there this season against 17 starts at second base, which had been his primary position at Texas Tech and for his first two years in pro ball. Detroit has used Gio Urshela as their primary third baseman. His bat has started to come around following a rough first half, but the Tigers seem to be turning their attention toward next season. Despite an ongoing four-game win streak, they’re 7.5 back of the American League’s last playoff spot.
Jung, the younger brother of Rangers third baseman Josh Jung, adds a high-upside offensive talent. He ranks fourth among Detroit prospects and 75th overall on Baseball America’s most recent ranking of the farm system. BA credits the left-handed hitter with plus power and a patient approach. While there’s some concern about his pure hit tool, the walks and power give him a chance to hit in the middle third of a lineup.
The 23-year-old is having a nice season in Toledo. He’s hitting .257/.377/.454 with 14 homers, 23 doubles and a triple through 415 plate appearances. Jung is drawing walks at a massive 16.1% clip while striking out at a roughly average 22.4% rate. While he has fallen into a bit of a slump of late, Jung has hit very well with the platoon advantage over the course of the season. He’s hitting .272/.402/.510 in 321 plate appearances against righty pitching.
Jung has predictably had a tougher time with left-handed arms. Detroit has a few righty-hitting infielders who could take some starts against southpaws, but Jung figures to play regularly over the season’s final six weeks. Urshela is on a one-year free agent deal and always felt like a bridge until Jung was ready to take over at third base. The Tigers should give him near everyday reps to gauge whether they can pencil him in as their starter going into 2025.
Jung will not come close to a full year of service or the time necessary to reach early arbitration as a Super Two player. He’s under team control for at least six seasons beyond this one and won’t get to arbitration for three years. A future optional assignment to Triple-A could push that timeline back.
The timing of Jung’s promotion, likely not coincidentally, comes just after the cutoff for him to preserve his rookie eligibility going into next season. From tomorrow, there’ll be 45 days remaining on the regular season calendar. A position player remains a rookie so long as they’ve spent 45 days or fewer on an MLB active roster and have not topped 130 at-bats. So long as the Tigers keep him below the at-bat threshold, Jung would be eligible for Rookie of the Year consideration going into next season.
That’s a relevant factor thanks to the Prospect Promotion Incentive introduced in the most recent round of collective bargaining. A team can earn a bonus draft pick if they carry a rookie top prospect (one who made the offseason Top 100 on at least two of the lists at Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline) for a full service year. If that player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three in MVP balloting during his pre-arbitration seasons, the team would get an extra pick after the first round of the following draft.
Jung could be in consideration for the prospect criteria, as evidenced by his placement on BA’s current Top 100. There’s no guarantee he’ll make two of the three lists next winter — and it’s certainly not a lock that he’ll win Rookie of the Year — but the Tigers would at least keep the possibility open if they plan for Jung to break camp in 2025. The Cardinals timed their promotion of top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn right at this time last season, for instance.
Sweeney isn’t the same caliber of prospect, but Detroit could give him a look at shortstop in place of the struggling Javier Báez. They’ll need to add both players to the active and 40-man rosters. They don’t have any obvious candidates to land on the 60-day injured list, so they might need to designate multiple players for assignment tomorrow.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Christian Yelich To Undergo Season-Ending Back Surgery
Christian Yelich is out for the season. The Brewers’ star outfielder announced (on X) that he’ll undergo surgery to address a back injury tomorrow. In a statement provided by the team, Yelich said he was hopeful of being 100% recovered for the 2025 season.
For the past month, it has been a near inevitability that Yelich was headed for surgery. He went on the 10-day injured list the week before the trade deadline after playing through lower back discomfort. Yelich visited a spine specialist and initially tried a non-surgical rehab that’d allow him to delay the procedure until the offseason. The hope was to get healthy enough to be able to contribute to the Brewers’ pennant push before more definitively addressing the problem at year’s end.
As Yelich explained today, the injury “wasn’t getting better” over the past few weeks. He added that he “ran out of options” that would allow him to make it back this season. The former MVP understandably expressed disappointment that he won’t be able to contribute on the field but indicated he’d remain around the team while they attempt to lock down a second consecutive NL Central title (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).
It’s a tough end to what was shaping up as Yelich’s best season in a few years. He was utterly dominant during his first two years in Milwaukee, following up an MVP campaign in 2018 with a runner-up finish in ’19. Yelich paced the Senior Circuit in OPS both seasons. His production dropped sharply after that. From 2020-23, he was a solid but not elite hitter. Yelich remained a good player who appeared to be on the decline coming into this year, his age-32 season.
He completely flipped that script with a monster first half. Yelich raked at a .315/.406/.504 clip across 315 plate appearances. He homered 11 times and stole 21 bases while being thrown out just once. The three-time Silver Slugger Award winner cut his strikeout rate to 18.4%, the lowest of his Brewers tenure, while drawing walks at an excellent 12.4% clip. Even if he wasn’t quite back to an MVP level, Yelich was an easy call to start for the National League in the All-Star Game.
Among hitters with 300+ plate appearances, Yelich is fifth in average and fourth in on-base percentage. He’s within the top 20 in slugging output. His overall offensive production was 53 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s quite comfortably tops on the team and 13th in the majors overall (with that 300 PA minimum). Yelich’s rate production sits between that of Rafael Devers and Ketel Marte.
Milwaukee isn’t going to be able to replace that kind of output. They were aware that Yelich might not make it back by the deadline. The front office reportedly sought a left-handed bat who could offer some punch against righty pitching but ultimately didn’t find a deal to their liking. Their deadline acquisitions ended up being exclusively on the pitching side, as they brought in Frankie Montas and reliever Nick Mears (in addition to their early-July pickup of Aaron Civale). The Montas trade actually sacrificed a bit of outfield depth since they sent Joey Wiemer to Cincinnati, though Wiemer wasn’t playing well enough in Triple-A to take on a meaningful role in Milwaukee.
Star rookie Jackson Chourio has moved to left field in Yelich’s absence. The 20-year-old is on a tear after a slow start to his debut campaign. Chourio has hit over .300 in each of the past three months. He’s hitting .274/.320/.441 on the season and has a massive .320/.368/.510 slash going back to June 1. Sal Frelick is having a decent year in right field, hitting .259/.333/.331 with above-average defensive grades. Former first-round pick Garrett Mitchell is back from injury to handle center field duties.
It’s still an extremely talented outfield, but any lineup would be much improved with Yelich in the middle of the order. The injury shouldn’t stop the Brewers from making the postseason. At 69-52, they’ve built a comfortable nine-game cushion in the NL Central. Milwaukee is in a tight battle for one of the top two seeds in the National League and the accompanying first-round bye. They’re a game and a half behind the Phillies and Dodgers, who are separated by percentage points for the NL’s best record.
Yelich remains a foundational piece for the Brew Crew in the long term. He’s under contract at $26MM annually for four seasons beyond this one. The team holds a $20MM option for the ’29 campaign. Yelich has dealt with intermittent back issues dating back to his first few seasons with the Marlins. The surgery will hopefully prevent that from being a major concern as he nears his mid-30s.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Marlins Do Not Intend To Trade Sandy Alcantara In Offseason
The Marlins have informed Sandy Alcantara that they will not trade him during the upcoming offseason, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). Mish writes that the Fish are hopeful that the 2022 NL Cy Young winner will be ready to take the ball for them on Opening Day.
Alcantara missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. That was the first major blow in what has turned out to be a very difficult 12 months at loanDepot Park. Eury Pérez went down with a Tommy John procedure of his own a week into the ’24 season. The Marlins got 12 inconsistent starts out of Jesús Luzardo; his season is over due to a stress reaction in his back. A finger injury has interrupted what might have been a step forward from Ryan Weathers. Lefty Braxton Garrett is currently down with a flexor strain and has made all of seven starts. Edward Cabrera lost a couple months in the first half.
A rotation with a fully healthy Alcantara, Luzardo, Pérez, Garrett and Weathers would probably be a top 10 group in MLB. The Marlins have instead lost them all for significant chunks of the season. Between that brutal stretch of starting pitching injuries and one of the worst lineups in the majors, the Marlins have had a nightmare of a year. They started 0-9, never got back to .500, and are fully amidst a rebuild. Miami shipped out Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan De La Cruz and a few others as part of a roster overhaul. First-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has begun to reshape the front office, and it’s widely believed that manager Skip Schumaker and the organization could part ways at season’s end.
That upheaval means there aren’t many players whom the Marlins would probably steadfastly refuse to discuss in trade talks. That said, it never seemed especially likely they’d deal Alcantara next winter. He’s rehabbing a major arm procedure that at least clouds his trade value. While there’d surely still be interest if the Marlins shopped him, other teams would presumably want to price in some kind of discount in case Alcantara doesn’t regain his pre-surgery form.
There’s little reason for the Marlins to entertain diminished trade offers. Miami signed Alcantara to a $56MM extension the year before his Cy Young campaign. He’s under contract for another two seasons and the team holds an option for 2027. Alcantara is making $9MM this year. His salaries will jump to $17MM annually for the next two seasons; the option is valued at $21MM and comes with a $2MM buyout. (He’d also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if the Marlins trade him at any point.) From here forward, it’s a two-year, $36MM guarantee that comes with a third-year club option.
Despite the surgery, that’s good value for a pitcher of Alcantara’s caliber. Bounceback starters like Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Luis Severino signed for between $13MM and $16MM in free agency last offseason. They all inked one-year deals, but that allowed them all to retest free agency in search of a much bigger contract if they returned to form. Alcantara is coming from a higher baseline than that trio of pitchers. If he looks anything like his old self, the final guaranteed season and the club option would be well below market value.
It’s a relatively costly commitment by Miami’s standards, but the Marlins have little else on the books next year. They owe the already released Avisaíl García $17MM between his $12MM salary and a $5MM buyout on his 2026 option. They’re responsible for $10MM annually to the Yankees between 2026-28 on the Giancarlo Stanton contract. Minor league reliever Woo-Suk Go, who is owed $2.75MM next season between his salary and a ’26 option buyout, is the only other player on a guaranteed deal beyond this season.
Luzardo, Jesús Sánchez and Garrett headline what’ll be a relatively light arbitration class. The Fish aren’t likely to do much in free agency after spending all of $5MM last winter on a one-year deal for Tim Anderson. Even with Alcantara’s salary rising by $8MM, they could open next season with a lower player payroll than their approximate $92MM mark this year (calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts).
If Alcantara performs well in the first half, he could be one of the most in-demand players at next summer’s deadline. Even if all their starters come back healthy, Miami will be hard-pressed to compete barring a major lineup overhaul. The Marlins still may not want to move Alcanatara with the amount of time remaining on his deal, but that’d be a more interesting question for the front office than it would to sell low on him over the offseason.
Dodgers’ River Ryan To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
The Dodgers announced Tuesday that top pitching prospect River Ryan will undergo Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the remainder of the 2024 season and quite possibly all of the 2025 campaign while recovering. Ryan, who posted a 1.33 ERA through his first four big league starts, hit the injured list over the weekend after suffering a UCL sprain in his most recent start.
Ryan’s 2024 season was already known to be over, but the Tommy John procedure marks a worst-case scenario in the wake of his UCL injury. An internal brace procedure might’ve come with a shorter timeline for recovery, but he’ll require a full ligament replacement, which tends to shelve pitchers for upwards of 14 months. Every rehab process is different, and there’s always a chance Ryan might heal a bit faster than the standard pitcher, but a 12-month recovery is typically an absolute minimum for pitchers who require Tommy John surgery.
The 25-year-old Ryan was an 11th-round pick by the Padres in 2021. He went to the Dodgers in a trade that now looks like a heist, sending first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty back to San Diego. (Beaty played in 20 games with the Padres and hit .093/.170/.163 before being cut loose.) Ryan hadn’t even made his professional debut at the time and had signed for a $100K bonus, so he was hardly a high-end prospect. Ryan simply getting to the majors would’ve been a player development success story for Los Angeles, but he instead ascended to the point where he’s regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in the sport. Ryan climbed as high as No. 21 overall on FanGraphs’ top-100 prospect rankings and sits 99th on MLB.com’s top-100 list at the moment.
The reasoning behind that rise isn’t especially difficult to see. Ryan spent the majority of the 2023 season in Double-A and pitched to a tidy 3.33 ERA in 97 1/3 frames before being bumped to Triple-A late in the year. He was hit hard in those two starts but returned to Triple-A this year and carved up opponents with a 2.76 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate in five starts. He was limited in the minors this season due to a shoulder injury, but Ryan graduated to the majors with a 3.22 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate in parts of three professional seasons since being traded to the Dodgers organization.
Ryan becomes the latest Dodgers hurler to land on the injured list in what’s been a trying season for their rotation depth. Los Angeles entered the year with Clayton Kershaw on the injured list and knowing that Tony Gonsolin would miss most/all of the season recovering from last summer’s Tommy John surgery. They’ve since seen Emmet Sheehan (Tommy John surgery) and Dustin May (esophageal surgery) fall to season-ending surgeries, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto (strained rotator cuff) and Walker Buehler (hip and elbow) land on the shelf with long-term injury troubles of their own. Prospects Nick Frasso (shoulder surgery) and Kyle Hurt (Tommy John surgery) are on the minor league injured list and done for the year as well. Last year’s breakout right-hander, Bobby Miller, has made just seven MLB starts and been ineffective both with the Dodgers and with Triple-A while navigating a shoulder injury of his own.
With that laundry list of injuries, the Dodgers currently have a rotation that includes Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone and deadline pickup Jack Flaherty. Buehler is expected to return from the injured list later this week, but he’s been bludgeoned for a 5.84 ERA in eight big league starts and has a 5.01 mark in another eight Triple-A starts this season — his first year back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. He offered a glimmer of hope in his most recent rehab start, tossing 5 1/3 innings and holding the Rangers’ Triple-A club to one run on one hit and three walks with five punchouts.
Because Ryan’s injury occurred while pitching at the big league level, he’s on the MLB injured list and will spend his 2025 rehab on the big league injured list as well. He’ll earn major league pay and service time while recovering from the injury. That’ll give him at least a full year of service while he recovers, putting him on track for arbitration in the 2027-28 offseason and free agency following the 2030 season. Of course, future optional assignments could change one or both of those trajectories, and for now the immediate focus will simply shift to the long process of getting the talented young righty back to full strength with an eye toward a late-2025 or early-2026 return.
James Paxton Diagnosed With Partially Torn Calf
3:10pm: Manager Alex Cora tells the Sox beat that Paxton is a “long shot” to return in 2024 (X link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). The skipper added that Criswell, once healthy, will rejoin the rotation as the team’s fifth starter (X link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo).
2:30pm: Red Sox left-hander James Paxton tells reporters that he’s been diagnosed with a partial tear of his right calf muscle (X link via WEEI’s Rob Bradford). The veteran southpaw acknowledged that it could sideline him for the remainder of the year but will still try to rehab in an effort to make it back before the season concludes.
The Sox placed Paxton on the 15-day injured list with a calf strain yesterday. The term “strain” itself, by definition, indicates there is a degree of stretching or tearing, so today’s announcement isn’t a total surprise. That said, the fact that he’s possibly facing an absence of six-plus weeks indicates that it’s a tear of some note — the latest in a long line of injuries that have plagued the talented left-hander throughout his big league career.
Paxton, 35, spent the 2022-23 seasons in Boston. He missed the entire ’22 campaign due to Tommy John surgery but returned in 2023 to pitch 96 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with more promising strikeout and walk rates. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $7MM deal with incentives that could take the contract up to $13MM. He unlocked all of those incentives before being designated for assignment and traded to the Red Sox in return for minor league infielder Moises Bolivar.
The Sox hoped that Paxton would help shore up an injury-depleted starting rotation, but it’s now possible they’ll receive only three starts from him. Paxton notched a solid 4.09 ERA in his 11 innings following the trade but exited his third and potentially final start after recording just two outs. He was Boston’s lone veterean acquisition prior to the trade deadline, meaning the Sox will again be left to rely on the quartet of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta, with scant depth behind the group. Righty Cooper Criswell has pitched well but has little track record and is currently out with Covid-19. Fellow righty Josh Winckowski has also made a handful of starts and could see further action down the stretch.
Paxton’s injury could open the door for young Quinn Priester, whom the Sox acquired from the Pirates in exchange for infield prospect Nick Yorke. Priester, a former first-round pick and top prospect, has yet to establish himself as a consistently viable big league starter. He’s logged a 6.46 ERA in 94 2/3 big league innings to this point in his young career, but the 23-year-old has generally fared well in the upper minors — an ugly two-game stint with the Sox’ Triple-A club in Worcester notwithstanding.
It’s a tenuous situation in Boston — one that would blow up in particularly bad fashion were one of Houck, Crawford or Pivetta to go down with an injury of note. Boston traded Chris Sale to the Braves in a regrettable offseason swap that netted infielder Vaughn Grissom. He was “replaced” by right-hander Lucas Giolito, who required season-ending internal brace surgery before the 2024 campaign began. Righty Garrett Whitlock had his own internal brace operation back in May. Depth arms like Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata have also been non-factors this season due to injury.
The Red Sox currently sit in third place in the AL East despite a strong 62-55 record. They’re only two games back in the American League Wild Card hunt, landing .001 percentage points ahead of the 63-56 Mariners but trailing the 65-54 Royals for the final Wild Card spot.