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Liam Hendriks Weighing Multiple Offers

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Three-time All-Star reliever Liam Hendriks is weighing multiple offers from interested clubs, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Hendriks, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery and aiming to return to action around the trade deadline this season, has set a deadline of tomorrow to sign with a team, per Passan. If he doesn’t sign by tomorrow — presumably meaning, if a team doesn’t meet whatever asking price he’s set — he’ll rehab on his own for the next several months and look to sign with a club closer to his return date.

Hendriks turned 35 last week. His ascension from a fringe arm riding the DFA carousel back in 2013-15 to one of the sport’s premier relievers is one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent memory. Hendriks was designated for assignment four times and placed on waivers without a public DFA on another occasion and traded in three different minor swaps along the way. In 2018, the A’s not only designated him for assignment for the fourth (and final) time in his career — they succeeded in passing Hendriks through waivers unclaimed.

Hendriks posted solid but unremarkable numbers as a low-leverage reliever for the A’s from 2016-18 but returned from that outright in 2019 as an entirely different pitcher. He scrapped his sinker, leaned far more heavily into a four-seamer that had jumped by more than 1.5 mph in average velocity, and became a two-pitch powerhouse who flummoxed opponents with his four-seamer/slider combo.

That devastating pair of pitches quickly catapulted Hendriks to the ranks of baseball’s elite bullpen arms. From 2019-22, he pitched 239 innings with 114 saves, an overwhelming 38.8% strikeout rate and a pristine 5.1% walk rate. In addition to his trio of All-Star nods, Hendriks twice won the Mariano Rivera American League Reliever of the Year Award and inked a huge three-year, $54MM contract with the White Sox.

The 2023 season brought about a sobering bit of disheartening news, as Hendriks announced last offseason that he’d been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma and would immediately embark on a wave of chemotherapy treatment. Just three and a half months later, Hendriks triumphantly announced that he was cancer-free. He began a rehab assignment in early May and returned to the Majors on May 29 — remarkably less than four months after making his original announcement.

It was a feel-good story for White Sox fans amid a disastrous start to the season, but the good vibes didn’t last long. Hendriks was placed back on the injured list just two weeks later, this time due to inflammation in his right elbow. While the issue was initially believed to be relatively minor — Hendriks at first expressed optimism he’d be back in a matter of weeks — damage to his ulnar collateral ligament was either discovered shortly thereafter or developed over the course of his rehab. There’d been no prior public indication that surgery was even a consideration, but the Sox announced on Aug. 2 that Hendriks was slated for Tommy John surgery.

Hendriks’ track record is strong enough that he ought to be a clear candidate for a big league deal — likely a two-year arrangement that’ll allow him the opportunity to rehab with a team’s medical staff for the bulk of this season with an eye toward either a second-half return or a 2025 return. This type of contract is relatively common, though the fact that Hendriks is entering his age-35 season perhaps complicates the scenario to some extent.

There’s not a team in baseball that couldn’t use a healthy Hendriks in its bullpen. That won’t be an option until late August at the earliest and perhaps not until Opening Day 2025, depending on how his rehab progresses, but the track record alone should lead to plenty of interest.

Pirates Still Discussing Rotation Trades With Marlins, Exploring Free Agency

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The Pirates have added Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales to their rotation this winter but remain in active pursuit of at least one more starter, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Bucs are in ongoing trade discussions with multiple clubs, including the Marlins, and are still showing interest in various free agents, per Mackey. FanSided’s Robert Murray also wrote this morning, after the Bucs signed Josh Fleming, that Pittsburgh is still active on both the trade and free agent markets.

Miami has reportedly entertained interest in starters Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett at various points this offseason. Ballyhooed right-hander Eury Perez, who impressed with a 3.15 ERA through 91 1/3 innings as a 20-year-old rookie in 2023, is widely considered to be off limits.

Of the other Miami arms, Cabrera has generally been considered the “most” available. The 6’5″ 25-year-old is a former top-tier prospect himself but has dealt with command troubles through his first year-plus of big league service time and has not yet as established as the other three hurlers in question. Mackey indeed suggests that Cabrera is the likeliest target, reporting that a deal between the Bucs and the Fish would likely include an infielder such as Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales or Ji Hwan Bae.

Each of those three have varying levels of trade value themselves. Peguero has garnered the most prospect fanfare of the group but struggled in a 59-game MLB debut last year, hitting .237/.280/.374 in 213 plate appearances. Gonzales is a former No. 7 overall pick and top-100 prospect, but Baseball America now lists him ninth among Pittsburgh minor leaguers. Bae is another once-well-regarded prospect but exhausted his rookie eligibility last year with a tepid .231/.296/.311 showing through 371 plate appearances. All three are middle infielders, though Gonzales and Bae are considered limited to second base (and, in Bae’s case, the outfield).

Any member of that trio would figure to be just one of several pieces going to Miami, should a deal come together. Though Cabrera himself has some questions about his lackluster command, he’s still performed far better in the majors than any of those Pittsburgh infielders, and controllable young pitching is typically the most difficult type of asset to acquire.

Since making his big league debut in 2021, Cabrera has pitched 197 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA ball. That includes a rocky debut that lasted just 26 1/3 frames in ’21, however. Over the past two seasons, he sports a more encouraging 3.73 mark in 171 1/3 frames. Cabrera has averaged better than 96 mph on his heater, punched out an above-average 26.6% of his opponents and induced grounders at a strong 50.6% clip. Still, fielding-independent metrics are a bit more bearish on him than ERA due to his 13.7% walk rate. In that same 2022-23 window, Cabrera sports a 4.50 FIP and 4.42 SIERA.

If Cabrera can improve his command at all, he has the makings of a clear big league starter. His fastball and changeup give him a pair of above-average to plus offerings, with the change in particular befuddling lefties and thus mitigating typical platoon issues. Southpaws have flailed away at the pitch and produced a hapless .184/.291/.315 batting line in 433 plate appearances against Cabrera. Because his slider hasn’t been as consistently effective, Cabrera has struggled against right-handed opponents. They’ve hit just .231 against him but posted a huge .376 OBP and slugged .422.

Cabrera’s 1.147 years of big league service time put him on track to be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player next winter. That’d make him arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three, but he’s under club control through the 2028 season regardless.

Beyond their interest in Miami’s starters, the Pirates have seen free agents Domingo German and Noah Syndergaard throw recently, per Mackey. Either figures to be available on a low-cost deal, and it seems entirely feasible that the Pirates could both trade for a pre-arb starter who won’t alter their payroll and still add another low-cost rotation piece on a one-year deal. Other veterans still on the market –beyond top starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who are surely out of Pittsburgh’s price range — include Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu, Mike Clevinger and Eric Lauer.

Rays Sign Phil Maton

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The Rays bulked up their bullpen Wednesday, finalizing their previously reported one-year contract with free agent righty Phil Maton.  The Paragon Sports International client is reportedly guaranteed $6.5MM, which takes the form of a $6.25MM salary and a $250K buyout on a $7.75MM club option for the 2025 season.  Tampa Bay transferred left-hander Shane McClanahan, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day IL to open a spot for Maton on the 40-man roster.

The Cardinals, Phillies, and Yankees have been linked to Maton’s market this winter, but the reliever will now head to Tampa Bay as he enters his age-31 season.  Maton has seven years of MLB experience, breaking into the big leagues with San Diego in 2017 and then landing in Cleveland and Houston.  Maton had a 4.76 ERA over 215 1/3 innings in the 2017-21 seasons, but a 3.68 ERA in that same span and excellent spin rates and soft-contact numbers indicated that the ceiling was higher on the righty’s performance.

The results began to show over Maton’s last two seasons, both with the Astros.  He delivered a 3.84 ERA in 65 2/3 innings in 2022 and then followed up even more strongly with a 3.00 ERA over 66 frames this past year.  As per Statcast, Maton had the second-best hard-hit ball rate of any qualified pitcher in baseball in 2023, and the spin rates on his curveball and fastball were both in at least the 98th percentile of all pitchers.

Walks have been an issue for Maton, and his above-average but not standout barrel rates indicate that batters can hit for power on the rare occasions when they actually make solid contact on Maton’s offerings.  Still, between his ability to generate soft contact and his above-average strikeout rates, Maton has rather quietly been one of the more effective relievers in baseball over the last two seasons.  This success has also extended into the postseason, as while injuries forced Maton to miss the Astros’ 2022 World Series run, he has a sparking 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 career playoff innings.

Given the Rays’ success at helping pitchers achieve higher levels of performance, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Maton at least continue or even improve on his strong numbers from 2022-23.  Maton figures to essentially act as the replacement for Robert Stephenson, a reclamation project-turned-high leverage reliever after joining the Rays last summer.

Stephenson parlayed his spectacular four-month run in Tampa into a three-year, $33MM free agent deal with the Angels.  Jake Diekman also signed with the Mets, Andrew Kittredge was traded to the Cardinals, and Jalen Beeks and Josh Fleming were both let go at the start of free agency, leaving the Rays with some holes to fill in the relief corps.  Pete Fairbanks figures to be the team’s primary closer again, and though the Rays are traditionally pretty flexible with their bullpen roles, Maton will likely stick to set-up duty since he has only one career save.

According to Roster Resource, Tampa Bay has a projected $93.3MM payroll, which would already be the highest payroll in Rays franchise history even before Maton’s deal is added to the tally.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander said in October that the club was open to spending at a (comparatively) higher level to help keep their core in place and to make a deeper playoff run, though the Rays did move Tyler Glasnow and his $25MM salary to the Dodgers in a trade.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported the two sides were nearing a deal (via X). Robert Murray of FanSided reported (on X) the terms of the deal, while Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported the specific year-to-year breakdown (X link).

Athletics To Meet With Government Officials About Coliseum Lease Extension

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The Athletics have a meeting on Thursday with officials from the City of Oakland and County of Alameda to discuss a lease extension at the Coliseum, reports John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.

The A’s are planning to move to Las Vegas for the 2028 season, a move that was already unanimously approved by all 29 other owners. But their lease at the Coliseum in Oakland is up after 2024, leaving them without a home stadium for the three intervening seasons. Various solutions for how to navigate that interim period have been considered, including playing in Sacramento, Salt Lake City, Reno, sharing San Francisco’s Oracle Park with the Giants or playing at the organization’s Triple-A field in Las Vegas.

Staying in Oakland never seemed to be a realistic option, with the relationship between the club and the city growing frosty during and after the stadium negotiations. Oakland mayor Sheng Thao has previously indicated that the city would have lofty demands in any lease discussions, such as the city retaining the rights to the name “Athletics” or a guarantee of a future expansion franchise. More recently, she indicated the city is willing to reopen talks with the club, but also relayed that she hadn’t spoken with owner John Fisher since he started focusing on the Vegas move in April.

It seems likely there’s a financial motivation for the sides to come back to the table. It was reported back in August that the club’s TV deal with NBC Sports California runs through 2033 and pays the club about $60MM per year. Jeff Passan of ESPN later reported that the club will actually receive about $70MM in 2024. But the deal lapses if the club leaves the Bay Area.

Sharing Oracle Park with the Giants would allow the club to continue collecting that money but would come with many logistical problems. The other proposed locations are not considered to be in the Bay Area and would result in forfeiting the deal. If the A’s want to get that TV money, staying in Oakland could be their best bet.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the upcoming negotiations will be fruitful, as the city and county will now they have leverage coming into the talks. But with the club having millions of dollars on the line, perhaps they can work something out. Shea reports that the A’s pay $1.2MM annually in rent. Also per today’s report, the meeting will feature Oakland chief of staff Leigh Hanson, city council member Rebecca Kaplan, county supervisor David Haubert and A’s team president Dave Kaval.

Red Sox Remain Open To Offers On Jansen, Martin, Schreiber

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Kenley Jansen has been the subject of trade speculation for a large portion of the offseason. With the Red Sox’s payroll seemingly pushing against ownership’s spending limit, there’s sense in looking to move the four-time All-Star closer. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote this evening that the Sox remain in contact with other teams about a possible Jansen trade before Opening Day.

He isn’t the only Boston reliever who could find himself on the move. MassLive’s Christopher Smith reports that the Sox have also expressed to other clubs they’re willing to field offers on right-handers Chris Martin and John Schreiber.

Of that trio, Jansen probably has the lowest trade value. That’s more a reflection of his contract than an indictment of his performance. Jansen is set for a $16MM salary in the second season of the two-year free agent deal which he signed last winter. That’s a lofty price tag — especially at a point in the offseason in which many teams could be near their own payroll ceilings — but he remains a very effective late-game arm.

Jansen locked down 29 of 33 save opportunities a year ago. He led the National League with 41 saves for the Braves two seasons back. He has allowed between three and four earned runs per nine in each of the past two seasons, including a 3.63 mark over 44 2/3 innings for Boston.

While that is the second-highest ERA of his excellent career, it remains better than average. That’s also the case for last season’s 27.7% strikeout rate, a personal low that nevertheless topped the league mark for relievers by four percentage points. The 36-year-old found some extra life on his trademark cutter. Jansen averaged 94.3 MPH on the pitch, his highest velocity since 2014.

If Boston wanted to maximize the prospect return, they could offer to pay down some portion of Jansen’s salary. That’s a strategy they took in the Chris Sale deal, sending $17MM to the Braves to convince Atlanta to relinquish Vaughn Grissom. Smith reports that they’re less keen to do so with Jansen, writing that they’ve been reluctant to include cash to facilitate a trade.

That wouldn’t be as significant an obstacle regarding Martin (and certainly not with Schreiber). The former, like Jansen, signed a two-year free agent deal last offseason. While Jansen had a solid first season at Fenway Park, Martin was downright excellent. He turned in a microscopic 1.05 ERA over 51 1/3 innings. His 23.1% strikeout rate was solid and he kept the ball on the ground at a 51% clip. Martin continues to boast perhaps the best control of any reliever in the game. He walked just 4% of opponents a year ago and hasn’t handed out free passes at even a 5% rate in any of the last six seasons.

Boston owes Martin a $7.5MM salary for the upcoming campaign. He’s also set to receive the final $1.5MM of a $4MM signing bonus in June. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that’s a little below the $9-11MM annual salaries secured this offseason by high-end setup relievers like Robert Stephenson, Héctor Neris, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López (the final two of whom will compete for rotation spots). Martin turns 38 in June, but the one-year commitment minimizes long-term downside. His fastball averaged 95.7 MPH last season, right in line with where it has sat throughout his career.

Schreiber, who turns 30 next month, is in a different spot contractually. He’s under arbitration control for three seasons. He and the Sox agreed to a modest $1.175MM salary for the upcoming campaign. The righty was a revelation two years ago, turning in a 2.22 ERA while fanning nearly 29% of opponents. His ’23 campaign wasn’t quite as impressive. Schreiber missed two months early in the year with a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder. He returned in July but worked with sightly diminished velocity relative to the prior season.

In 46 2/3 frames, he turned in a 3.86 ERA. Schreiber punched out a solid 26% of opponents, although his walk rate spiked from 7.4% to an alarming 12.3% clip. While his low arm angle remained a very tough look for right-handed hitters, lefty batters teed off for a .300/.456/.533 line in 79 plate appearances.

Moving Schrieber certainly wouldn’t be about finances. Considering offers on him (or Martin, to a lesser extent) seems more of a broad openness by chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and the front office to consider opportunities that could balance the roster. Boston is still looking for right-handed hitting outfield help and could use additional certainty out of the rotation.

Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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February 12: Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the specifics on Kershaw’s performance bonuses and escalators. The future Hall of Famer would earn a $1MM bonus for his sixth start next season, $1.5MM for each of his next three starts, and $2MM if he reaches 10 starts. A relief appearance in which he accrues at least nine outs also qualifies, protecting Kershaw in the event he follows an opener.

The $5MM base value of his 2025 player option would escalate based on his ’24 workload by the following amounts:

  • $2MM for six starts
  • $3MM apiece for seven through nine starts
  • $4MM for 10 starts

If he exercises the option, the deal includes additional bonuses for 2025 depending on the number of starts he makes in each of the next two years.

February 9: Clayton Kershaw is heading back to the Dodgers. The team announced Friday that the left-hander has re-signed on a two-year guarantee — the second season of which is a player option. Kershaw, a client of Excel Sports Management, is recovering from November shoulder surgery and isn’t expected to pitch until the second half of the season, at the earliest. He’s reportedly guaranteed $10MM on the pact: $5MM in each season of the deal.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Kershaw’s 2024 incentives are contingent on him making six to ten starts this season. Any increases to this year’s base salary will also be reflected in the value of his player option. Sherman further adds that between those escalators and incentives specific to the 2025 season, Kershaw could earn as much as $25MM in year two of the contract. That’d give him a total earning power of $37.5MM over the two years of the contract.

Kershaw can boost that 2024 salary to $12.5MM based on the number of games he starts this season. The number of games he starts can also boost the base value of his 2025 player option. Right-hander Tony Gonsolin was moved to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot for Kershaw. If and when the Dodgers need another 40-man spot, Kershaw himself can be transferred to the 60-day IL.

Assuming he’s able to suit up at some point in the second half, the 2024 season will be Kershaw’s 17th pitching for the Dodgers, who selected him with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 draft. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, who hasn’t reached 30 starts in a season since 2015, but the quality of his results remains largely constant. From 2009-15, Kershaw averaged 32 starts per year, won four straight ERA titles and took home three Cy Young Awards. Since 2016, he’s averaged just 24 starts per 162-game season but maintained a brilliant 2.55 ERA — including sub-2.50 marks in three of the past four seasons.

Kershaw clearly wasn’t pitching at 100% for much of the 2023 season. A shoulder strain landed Kershaw on the injured list in July, and manager Dave Roberts candidly acknowledged in September that he was pitching at less than full strength. Los Angeles limited Kershaw to five innings per start for all but one start in his return from the injured list (a 5 1/3-inning outing in his final appearance of the season). Along the way, Kershaw’s average fastball dipped to career-low levels; he averaged just 89.4 mph on his fastball in his return — including just an 88.7 mph average through his final four starts.

Diminished velocity notwithstanding, Kershaw remained quite effective. In eight post-IL starts he turned in a pristine 2.23 ERA. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate were both a ways from his pre-injury levels (27.7%, 6.3%), but Kershaw looked to making the most of what he had to offer on any given day. He didn’t allow more than three runs in any of those final eight appearances and in fact held opponents to one or zero runs in six of them. The D-backs ambushed him for six runs in the first inning of his lone NLDS start, however, ending his season on a low point.

It’s not yet clear when Kershaw might be able to rejoin the Dodgers’ staff, though they’ll presumably provide an update when announcing his deal and discussing it with the media. A returning Kershaw in the second half will provide some high-end insurance for a Dodgers rotation that is teeming with uncertainty. Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be adjusting to a new culture and a new league in his debut campaign this year. Right-hander Walker Buehler is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw James Paxton is a perennial injury risk. Young righties Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone and Kyle Hurt haven’t pitched full big league seasons.

As already noted, Kershaw won’t be the only potential second-half addition for the Dodgers. The aforementioned May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor tendon repair in early July but could potentially be back for the stretch run. Gonsolin, who underwent Tommy John surgery in late August, feels like a longer shot to make it back but could potentially do so in a bullpen capacity if his rehab plays out in a best-case scenario.

The Dodgers are set to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and are already well into the final tier of luxury tax penalization. As such, any dollars committed to Kershaw will be taxed at a 110% rate. That apparently won’t be a deterrent as they welcome the future Hall of Famer back for a 17th season.

In 2712 2/3 innings though his big league career, Kershaw owns a 210-92 record, a 2.48 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate. He’s a ten-time All-Star with five NL ERA titles, three Cy Young Awards and a National League MVP Award under his belt.

Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Dodgers and Kershaw had reached an agreement. The Athletic’s Andy McCullough reported the presence of a 2025 player option. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the terms of the deal.

Getz: White Sox Expect Cease To Be Opening Day Starter

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Trade chatter on White Sox ace Dylan Cease has died down over the past month amid reports that first-year general manager Chris Getz has set an extremely high asking price and has shown no willingness to back down, even as the season draws nearer. Getz himself threw more cold water on the possibility of trading Cease today, plainly telling the Sox beat: “I expect [Cease] to be our Opening Day starter” (X link via Chuck Garfien of NBC Sports Chicago).

Like the majority of baseball executives, Getz didn’t speak in absolutes. There’s always the chance of a late offer that’s simply too good to turn down — particularly if a contending team loses a starting pitcher to a long-term injury this spring and feels emboldened to make a trade that was previously deemed too costly.

That said, Getz also didn’t need to go out of his way to frame it as likely that Cease would be on the Opening Day roster, either. Choosing to voice that is a firmer stance than speaking in generalities about remaining open-minded and considering all avenues. That’s the route Getz took just one month ago, publicly stating that a Cease trade could potentially come in the offseason, at the deadline or even at an atypical time like May or June, if the right offer presented itself then.

Entering the offseason, Cease stood out as one of the likeliest trade candidates on the market. The White Sox fired longtime GM Rick Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams last summer, promoting Getz from assistant GM. He began the offseason making clear that the Sox would be open for business, even going so far as to candidly state, “I don’t like our team.” The South Siders have indeed proven active, trading relievers Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos, acquiring young outfielder Dominic Fletcher and swinging a trade for veteran catcher Max Stassi.

Many of the Sox’ dealings have focused on improving the defense; Getz said in today’s media session that early talks with free agent pitchers this winter showed a reluctance to sign in Chicago because of the team’s poor glovework (X link via CHGO’s Vinnie Duber). Recognizing that limitation, Getz acquired Nicky Lopez and glove-first infield prospect Braden Shewmake (in the Bummer deal), signed Paul DeJong, and landed a pair of catchers with good defensive reputations (Stassi and free agent Martin Maldonado). Fletcher, acquired from the D-backs in exchange for pitching prospect Christian Mena, is regarded as a plus defender at all three outfield spots.

Amid all that roster shuffling, there was a general expectation that Cease would eventually be moved. That no longer seems nearly so certain. There’s clear risk in hanging onto the 28-year-old righty. A spring or early-season injury could prove catastrophic for the Sox, tanking the value of their clear best trade chip. At the same time, trading Cease this summer won’t necessarily reduce the asking price, particularly if teams simply weren’t putting forth compelling packages for him this winter.

Cease is coming off a pedestrian 4.58 ERA, but he’s only one season removed from a runner-up showing on the AL Cy Young ballot, when he pitched 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball. His strikeout rate and velocity both dipped a bit in ’23 from their ’22 levels, and he gave up more hard contact than usual. The extent to which those red flags combined to impact offers for him can’t be known, but if Cease can come out looking like the 2022 version of himself, it’s conceivable he could even command more near the deadline — particularly since the supply of starting pitching will be much smaller than in the offseason, when there’s a wide bank of free agents to consider.

Cease is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration. He and the White Sox agreed to a one-year, $8MM deal earlier this winter, avoiding an arb hearing in the process. The right-hander leads all of Major League Baseball with 109 starts dating back to the 2020 season. In that time, Cease sports a 3.58 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate, 36.5% ground-ball rate and 1.03 HR/9.

Padres, Jurickson Profar Agree To One-Year Deal

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Free agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar and the Padres are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The MVP Sports Group client will be guaranteed $1MM, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, with the deal still pending a physical. Profar can also add another $1.5MM via incentives based on plate appearances, per Murray.

Jurickson Profar | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Profar, who turns 31 next week. His career has been extremely up-and-down, something that MLBTR covered in 2022. Last year was another downswing on that sine wave, with 2023 his worst season to date. He opted out of his previous deal with the Padres at the end of 2022, taking the $1MM buyout instead of the $7.5MM salary. He lingered onto the market until the middle of March but did eventually get a one-year, $7.75MM deal from the Rockies, narrowly edging out the money he left on the table.

The move to Colorado didn’t suit Profar. His 18.2% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate were pretty close to his career norms, but he hit just eight home runs in 472 plate appearances. Given the expectations of the hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field, his tepid .236/.316/.364 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of just 72. His defense was graded poorly as well, and the Rockies released him in August. He returned to the Padres late in the year and finished strong, but in a small sample of just 14 games. FanGraphs considered him to be two wins below replacement on the year while Baseball Reference had him at -1.3 WAR.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a key figure in the Rangers’ international scouting department when Profar originally signed and was eventually ranked the top prospect in all of baseball. Multiple shoulder surgeries have derailed his trajectory, but Profar has still shown inconsistent flashes of solid MLB production and Preller clearly still holds an affinity for him. This will be his fifth season suiting up for the Padres, for whom he carries a .246/.334/.376 batting line in 1321 plate appearances dating back to 2020.

From the team’s vantage point, Profar helps to fill a dire need for outfielders. Prior to this signing, San Diego only had two outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr. and light-hitting Jose Azocar. They’ve also been working top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill out in left field and could consider the 20-year-old as an outfield option at some point this season, should that experiment go smoothly, though as it stands Merrill has played just 46 games at the Double-A level and has not yet played a single game in Triple-A.

The Friars have also been working to cut payroll throughout the offseason, so securing Profar at barely more than the league minimum surely held appeal. Profar at least gives the Padres three big league outfielders on the 40-man roster, but his signing likely doesn’t rule out the addition of another more notable signing/acquisition who could push the 27-year-old Azocar into a fourth outfield role for which he’s better suited. With Profar added to the fold, San Diego’s payroll now sits at a projected $159MM, per Roster Resource — more than $90MM south of last year’s franchise-record $255MM mark. The Padres have about $215MM worth of projected luxury tax considerations, however.

In all likelihood, there are still some additions to be made by the Padres between now and Opening Day. Their outfield depth remains perilously thin, and they’ve reportedly been exploring both the trade and free agent markets for ways to change that. Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran is reportedly one potential target. The Padres also have questions in the fourth and fifth spots in their rotation, behind top starters Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Michael King. In-house options include Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Drew Thorpe, Matt Waldron, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and Glenn Otto, among others, but the Padres are also still looking into the lower tiers of free agency. They reportedly have some interest in Noah Syndergaard and in Michael Lorenzen.

Pirates To Sign Yasmani Grandal

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The Pirates and catcher Yasmani Grandal are in agreement on a contract, per reporter Francys Romero. Robert Murray of FanSided reported earlier this evening that the sides were in “serious talks” regarding a deal. Per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the deal guarantees Grandal $2.5MM and includes incentives, with MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf noting the contract is a one-year deal.

Grandal, 35, was a first-round pick by the Reds 2010 draft and quickly rose to become a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport ahead of his debut with the Padres back in 2012. Grandal hit an impressive .297/.394/.469 over 60 games during his rookie campaign in San Diego, though he missed much of the following season after being suspended for 50 games due to violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy. Upon being traded to the Dodgers ahead of the 2015 season, Grandal established himself as one of the league’s premiere two-way catchers as he combined above-average offense with strong defensive metrics.

During a seven-year period from 2015 to 2021, Grandal slashed an impressive .239/.357/.461 while playing for the Dodgers, Brewers, and White Sox. That slash line was good for a 122 wRC+ that was surpassed only by Will Smith and Mitch Garver among catchers during that stretch. Meanwhile, his +56 Defensive Runs Saved ranked fourth in the majors during that time, trailing only Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges, and Buster Posey. Grandal combined that two-way talent with impeccable durability, with only J.T. Realmuto and Yadier Molina appearing in more games behind the plate than Grandal over that seven-year period. In that time frame, Grandal appeared behind the plate in 693 games, or more than two thirds of his club’s regular season contests.

Fantastic as Grandal was during his peak, the veteran began to decline rapidly upon entering his mid-thirties. Over his final two seasons in Chicago, Grandal slashed just .219/.305/.306 with a well-below average wRC+ of 74. While he maintained a solid 10.4% walk rate in that time, his power production cratered as he posted an ISO of just .087, a figure that pales in comparison to the career .211 figure he boasted entering the 2022 campaign. Father time has also been unkind to Grandal’s defensive skills. While Statcast’s Outs Above Average still grades him as a roughly average defender with plus framing metrics, his -16 DRS behind the plate is the fourth-worst figure in the majors over the past two seasons, ahead of only Elias Diaz, MJ Melendez, and Keibert Ruiz.

While Grandal’s decline over the past two seasons has been a steep one, the veteran backstop could still prove to be a valuable addition for a Pittsburgh team in search of a veteran presence behind the plate. The Pirates lost rookie catcher Endy Rodriguez to UCL surgery back in December. The 23-year-old youngster is expected to miss the entirety of the 2024 campaign, leaving backup catcher Jason Delay and catching-prospect-turned-outfielder Henry Davis as the club’s top internal options behind the plate. Delay owns a .233/.293/.311 slash line across 127 games in the majors, while Davis struggled to a .213/.302/.351 slash line during his first 255 trips to the plate in the big leagues last season.

The addition of Grandal figures to give the Pirates the opportunity to offer Davis, who has caught just two innings behind the plate last year and has started only 92 contests at the position throughout his entire professional career, more time to develop defensively behind the plate in the minor leagues should he require it. Alternatively, the club could look to pair Grandal with Davis at the big league level, providing Davis a veteran mentor as he goes through his first big league season as a regular backstop. Such an arrangement could involve the club carrying three catchers on its roster to open the season, though Delay has options remaining and could be utilized as depth at the Triple-A level.

Pittsburgh also signed 27-year-old catcher Ali Sanchez to a big league deal back in December. Sanchez has just seven games of big league experience, but sports a decent .275/.345/.402 slash line for his career at the Triple-A level and has a strong defensive reputation behind the plate. Sanchez is out of options, meaning the club will have to either carry him on their Opening Day roster or expose him to waivers. With Grandal, Davis, Delay, and Sanchez all set to enter camp with at least a shot at a big league role for the Pirates entering the season, the club has successfully addressed its big league caliber catching depth in the wake of Rodriguez’s injury.

Phillies Sign Spencer Turnbull

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The Phillies announced that they have signed right-hander Spencer Turnbull to a contract. It’s a one-year, $2MM deal, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Turnbull, a client of the Boras Corporation, can also earn another $2MM in incentives.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Turnbull to earn $2.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility, yet the Tigers chose to non-tender the righty in November.  It is fair to assume that the clashes between Turnbull and the Tigers over service time contributed to the club’s decision moreso than his modest price tag, though Turnbull also has a checkered health history coming off what is almost three straight lost seasons.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has some familiarity with Turnbull, as Dombrowski was still running the Tigers front office when Detroit selected Turnbull in the second round of the 2014 draft.  The righty battled some shoulder problems during his trip up the minor league ladder, but made his MLB debut with 16 1/3 innings in 2018 and then tossed 148 1/3 frames during the 2019 season.  Despite a league-high 17 losses that year, Turnbull had decent enough peripherals that he looked like a potential building block for the rebuilding Tigers.

That potential was further realized when Turnbull posted a 3.46 ERA over 106 2/3 innings in 2020-21.  He pitched well for Detroit during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, and then his 2021 season was highlighted by a no-hitter on May 18 of that year.  Unfortunately, Turnbull made only three more appearances after his no-no before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for the rest of the 201 season and all of 2022.

Returning to action last year, Turnbull struggled to a 7.26 ERA over seven starts, and he didn’t pitch again the majors after May 6.  He was initially optioned to the minors the next day, though that option was overwritten a week after when Turnbull was placed on the 15-day IL due to neck discomfort.  The right-hander was eventually moved to the 60-day injured list and wasn’t activated until August, when Turnbull was then optioned to Triple-A.

Turnbull wasn’t pleased with the demotion because he was also dealing with foot injury at the time, and the situation was eventually resolved in November when Turnbull was awarded a full year of MLB service time.  He now has five years and 20 days of acknowledged big league service time, and would’ve fallen short of the five-year mark had his appeal for more time hadn’t been granted.  This would have delayed Turnbull’s eventual trip to free agency for another year, as he wouldn’t have had the necessary six full years of eligibility heading into the 2024-25 offseason, though that ended up being something of a moot point after the Tigers non-tendered him.

The 31-year-old will now look for a fresh start in Philadelphia under Dombrowski’s watch once again.  Dombrowski spoke last month about how the Phillies were looking to add depth to their pitching staff, though since the Phils already have a pretty set rotation and bullpen mix, the team was having some difficulty in luring pitchers who wanted more opportunities for innings.  This could explain why the Phillies opted for Turnbull, whose market was lessened given his recent injury woes.

Turnbull, Dylan Covey, Kolby Allard, Nick Nelson, and Max Castillo now project as Philadelphia’s top rotation depth options.  Any of this group could also pitch in the bullpen, and Turnbull has a leg up on the others due to the guaranteed nature of his contract.  Working as a reliever might also present a new career path for Turnbull to explore if starting pitching is no longer in the cards, though it still seems too early for that door to be closed.

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