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Royals Acquire John Schreiber From Red Sox

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The Royals have acquired reliever John Schreiber from the Red Sox in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect David Sandlin, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Kansas City placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Schreiber has a 27.4% strikeout rate over his 143 1/3 career innings in the majors, so missing bats has never been an issue for the 29-year-old.  Between some home run issues and a lot of bad BABIP luck, however, Schreiber had only a 6.28 ERA over 28 2/3 innings with the Tigers in 2019-20, and he pitched in only a single MLB game with the Red Sox in 2021.  The breakout came in 2022, as Schreiber had a 2.22 ERA over 65 relief innings for Boston while also delivering a 28.8% strikeout rate and an above-average 7.4% walk rate.

2023 was more of a challenge, in no small part because Schreiber spent time on the 60-day injured list due to a teres major strain in his right shoulder.  Schreiber still posted a respectable 3.86 ERA over 46 2/3 innings and had strong strikeout and barrel rates, though his walk rate spiked up to an ungainly 12.3%.  The sinker that was such a weapon for Schreiber the previous season was also less effective — batters had a .395 wOBA against his sinker in 2023, as opposed to a .245 wOBA in 2022.

An argument can certainly be made that the Red Sox might be selling high on Schreiber here, though it’s a risk Kansas City is willing to take for a reliever who is a few weeks shy of his 30th birthday and is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.  Schreiber had a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings before his IL stint and a 4.85 ERA in 29 2/3 innings after returning, so the Royals might view the righty’s struggles as just a byproduct his injury layoff.  Should Schreiber get back to his 2022 form, K.C. suddenly has a big strikeout arm to deploy in high-leverage situations.

Today’s trade continues a very busy offseason for Royals GM J.J. Picollo, who has brought quite a bit of veteran talent to Kansas City in an effort to quickly turn around a team that lost 106 games last season.  Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo were the headline-grabbing rotation upgrades, but Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson, and now Schreiber have all joined a reworked bullpen.  Schreiber is a bit more of a longer-term add given his years of arbitration control, yet the Royals have put themselves in a position to either directly benefit on the field if these pitchers perform well, or to perhaps benefit in terms of having some trade chips at the deadline if K.C. again falls short of contention.

From Boston’s perspective, moving a solid reliever from Schreiber might not be well received at first by Red Sox Nation, given how the fans have been vocally unimpressed with the team’s moves (or lack thereof) this offseason.  Craig Breslow has made a lot of lateral moves in his first winter as the chief baseball officer, continuing the franchise’s recent bent towards adding younger talent rather than splurging on win-now stars.

Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings.  An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh.  Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider.  If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.

MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith reported earlier this week that the Sox were open to offers for not just Schreiber, but also Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin.  With Schreiber now out the door, it remains to be seen if Boston is still willing to move either of Jansen or Martin, or if the Sox will stop short of a full-on bullpen overhaul.  Jansen or Martin are both free agents after the season and will be prime trade candidates at the deadline if the Red Sox aren’t in contention, so there has been speculation that the Sox might look to increase their return (and cut some salary) by dealing at least one of the veteran relievers now.

Diamondbacks Sign Randal Grichuk

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2:03PM: The Diamondbacks have officially announced Grichuk’s signing, and created 40-man roster space by moving right-hander Drey Jameson to the 60-day injured list.  Jameson underwent Tommy John surgery in September and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season.

10:45AM: The Diamondbacks have signed outfielder Randal Grichuk to a one-year deal worth $2MM in guaranteed money, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (X link).  Grichuk will earn $1.5MM in base salary in 2024, and there is a $500K buyout on a mutual option for the 2025 season.  If the mutual option is exercised by both sides, Grichuk will earn $6MM in 2025.  Grichuk is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Grichuk hit .267/.321/.459 with 16 homers over 471 plate appearance for the Rockies and Angels last season, translating to a perfectly average 100 wRC+ for the 32-year-old.  This matches the 100 wRC+ Grichuk has posted over his entire 10-year career in the Show, with a .249/.296/.465 slash line and 191 home runs over 4261 plate appearances.  Within those overall numbers sits a decidedly superior set of numbers against left-handed pitching, as the right-handed hitting Grichuk has an .822 career OPS against southpaws as compared to a .735 OPS against righties.

Since the start of the 2020 season, Grichuk’s splits have grown wider, as he has All-Star level numbers against lefties and sub-replacement level production against righties.  With the door quite possibly closing on Grichuk’s viability as an everyday player, this perhaps makes him an ideal fit for a Diamondbacks team looking for some right-handed balance within a lefty-heavy outfield mix.

Reports surfaced last week that Grichuk was one of the players the Snakes were eyeing as a veteran complement to outfielders Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas, as well as the newly-signed Joc Pederson.  All three of those players are left-handed bats and only Carroll is a lock for everyday duty, so Grichuk should be able to find plenty of at-bats filling in for Pederson or Thomas when a lefty is on the mound.  Grichuk can play all three outfield positions and is at least passable defensively in center, adding to his value as a part-timer.

Coming off a surprise NL pennant, the Diamondbacks have been aggressive in bolstering their roster this offseason.  Eduardo Rodriguez was signed to a four-year, $80MM contract, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was brought back for a three-year, $42MM commitment, and Pederson will earn $12.5MM in guaranteed money for his one-year deal (with a mutual option for 2025).  Between these signings, Grichuk, and the trade that brought Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners, Arizona has both upgraded the rotation and added a lot of balance, power, and veteran experience to the position player mix.

The D’Backs are projected to have a payroll slightly lower than $143MM next season, as per Roster Resource.  While still a pretty modest payroll by league-wide standards, it stands as the larger payroll in Arizona’s franchise history, and a sizeable bump over the club’s $116.1MM Opening Day payroll from 2023.  Between these expenditures and new extensions for both GM Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo, the Diamondbacks clearly feel 2023 was just the beginning of a new contention window, and have used their extra playoff revenue to reinvest in the roster.

Phillies Sign Whit Merrifield To One-Year Deal

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The Phillies announced they have signed infielder/outfielder Whit Merrifield on a one-year contract. It’s reportedly an $8MM guarantee that takes the form of a $7MM salary this year and a $1MM buyout on an $8MM club option for 2025. There are also bonuses for the Warner Sports Management client that can take the full value to $16.6MM over two years.

Merrifield, 35, reached free agency at a late age, due to both being a late bloomer and signing an extension with the Royals. He made his major league debut in 2016 at the age of 27 and didn’t truly establish himself until the year after, his age-28 campaign.

From 2017 to 2020, Merrifield was solidly above-average at the plate and in other areas as well. He only walked in 6.3% of his plate appearances but limited his strikeouts to a 15.4% clip. His .297/.345/.452 batting line in that time amounted to a wRC+ of 111, or 11% better than league average. He also stole 111 bases in that time while providing quality defense at second base and all three outfield positions.

In the midst of that stretch, Merrifield signed a four-year, $16.25MM extension with the Royals, with that deal having a club option as well. He didn’t have a lot of leverage since his late-bloomer status meant that he wasn’t slated to reach free agency until after his age-33 season. That extension allowed him to lock in some decent money while giving up his age-34 season via that club option. The Royals would later trigger that option in advance, as part of restructuring his deal in early 2022.

The past three seasons have seen Merrifield’s production slip, a period of time that saw him traded to the Blue Jays midway through. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, his walk and strikeout rates have both stayed low as he has hit .269/.313/.392 for a wRC+ of 92. He added another 94 steals but his defensive metrics have taken a step back. In the outfield, both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have considered him to be subpar in those recent years. OAA still likes his work at second base, whereas DRS gave him +14 at the keystone in 2021 but negative numbers in the past two years.

Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Merrifield could get $18MM over two years. This contract takes roughly that same shape but only half of it is guaranteed, with the second half depending on whether or not that option is picked up.

For the Phillies, Merrifield is likely to serve as a bench/utility piece, though one that could see fairly regular playing time. The club has Bryson Stott at second base, though he’s a left-handed hitter. Merrifield is right-handed and has modest traditional platoon splits in his career: .289/.335/.458 batting line and 111 wRC+ against lefties compared with a .282/.328/.407 line and 97 wRC+ the rest of the time. Stott actually has reverse splits overall but was even in 2023.

In the outfield, with Bryce Harper now entrenched at first base and Kyle Schwarber likely to be a regular as the designated hitter, that leaves Nick Castellanos as the everyday option in right field and Johan Rojas in center. There’s some uncertainty with Brandon Marsh in left after he recently had arthroscopic knee surgery. The Phils are still hopeful of him being ready for Opening Day but it will be tight. He also hits left-handed has strong platoon splits for his career, with a .272/.347/.438 line and 115 wRC+ against righties but a .223/.278/.312 showing and 63 wRC+ against southpaws.

If Marsh were to miss time, the options to replace him weren’t terribly inspiring. Neither Cristian Pache nor Jake Cave have hit much in their big league careers. It seems Merrifield could see some left field time, either covering for Marsh or platooning with him once he’s healthy. He could also cover second on occasion if Bryson Stott needs a breather. He has a tiny bit of experience on the infield corners so could perhaps spell either Harper or Alec Bohm from time to time, as well as serving as a pinch runner if he’s not in the starting lineup. After the Marsh injury, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski downplayed the club’s likelihood of acquiring outfield help as they didn’t really have the playing time to offer, but Merrifield’s versatility makes him a better fit than a traditional outfielder.

The move brings the Philadelphia payroll to $246MM, per Roster Resource. That’s a bit north of last year’s $243 Opening Day figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. RR has their competitive balance tax figure at $261MM, above the second tax tier of $257MM. They also finished last year between the second and third tax tier. Going over the third line, which is $277MM, would require the club to have its top 2025 draft pick moved back 10 spots.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com first connected the two sides on an $8MM guarantee and first had the $1MM buyout. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first relayed the 2025 option and details.

Padres To Move Xander Bogaerts To Second Base

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Padres manager Mike Shildt told members of the media today that Xander Bogaerts will be moving from shortstop to second base, with Dennis Lin of The Athletic among those to relay the news. Ha-Seong Kim will cross the bag in the other direction to take over the shortstop position.

It was just a little over a year ago that the Padres signed Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM contract. At the time, it was a bit of a puzzling fit on the club’s roster. Fernando Tatis Jr. was supposed to be the franchise shortstop once upon a time. In February of 2021, he and the Friars agreed to a historic 14-year, $340MM extension to keep him on the club for the bulk of his career. He ended up missing the 2022 season both due to injuries and a PED suspension, but he was expected back early in 2023. While he was out, Kim provided excellent glovework at the position.

Going into 2023, there was a bit of uncertainty. Tatis was coming off an entirely missed season and the club was thinking about moving him to the outfield. But even if that scenario, they still had Kim to cover short. It wasn’t really expected that they would head into the offseason looking for a mega deal but they landed Bogaerts nonetheless.

Bogaerts’ first year in San Diego resulted in fairly typical offensive production for him. He hit 19 home runs and slashed .285/.350/.440 for a wRC+ of 120. Defensively, Outs Above Average gave him a positive grade of +3 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at -4. He has long been considered a candidate to move off of shortstop, even as a prospect, and it seems the time has now come. For his career, his tallies at short are -31 OAA and -54 DRS.

In the short term, the move is probably best for the 2024 version of the Padres, as Kim is excellent with the glove. He has played 1,505 1/3 innings at short in the majors, just over a full season’s worth. In that time, he’s tallied 22 DRS and 7 OAA. Having him at short and Bogaerts at second should give the club a great middle infield, as even mediocre shortstops often provide solid defense on the other side of the bag.

But taking the wide view, the decision making from the Padres becomes questionable. Twice now in recent years they have given around $300MM to a shortstop on a deal longer than a decade, and now neither will be playing short. Tatis, who has now been moved to right field, is under contract through 2034 and Bogaerts through 2033. Kim is set to become a free agent after 2024, as his deal has a mutual option for 2025 and those provisions are almost never triggered by both parties.

Assuming Kim reaches free agency a year from now, the club will then be looking for a solution at short for 2025 and beyond. They could always move Bogaerts again but he’ll be 32 years old by then and his abilities at that position will only be trending downwards with age. One of the club’s top prospects, Jackson Merrill, is a shortstop who reached Double-A last year. He could perhaps be a solution at that spot down the road but he is reportedly coming into camp as an outfielder, with the club trying to get creative in covering the spots vacated by trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. He could move back to short in 2025 but that might be a bit tricky if he spends this year in the outfield with the big league club instead of getting reps in Triple-A.

The Soto/Grisham deal was necessary because the club is paring back spending this winter. That’s partially a result of their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group falling apart but also connected to their extreme aggression in recent years, which includes giving a massive deal to a shortstop they didn’t really need.

Rob Manfred Not Planning To Seek Another Term As MLB Commissioner

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Rob Manfred spoke with the media today and said that his current tenure as MLB commissioner will be his last. His current term runs through January of 2029. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe was among those to relay the news.

“You can only have so much fun in one lifetime,” Manfred said, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. “I have been open with them (the owners) about the fact that this is going to be my last term.”

Manfred, now 65, has been the league’s commissioner since 2014, replacing the retiring Bud Selig. During that decade at the helm, he has proven to be incredibly unpopular among baseball fans but has consistently received the approval of club owners.

That tenure has had many standout elements, notably the significant rule changes aimed at speeding up the pace of the game, the tampering with composition of the baseballs, the expansion of the postseason, the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, the 2020 pandemic, the 2021-22 lockout and the Athletics’ planned relocation to Las Vegas.

The rule changes naturally rankled many purists among baseball fans. The fact that no players received any punishment for the sign-stealing and that Manfred referred to the World Series trophy as a “piece of metal” also caused a great deal of upset, particularly among fans of clubs that lost to the Astros in the postseason. The ongoing relocation of the A’s was clearly not popular in Oakland. The work stoppage, baseball’s first since the 1994-95 strike, was not well received by those who want players to receive a larger chunk of baseball’s revenue relative to the owners.

But the commissioner is ultimately chosen by those owners, who have clearly been happy with the profitability of the game. In July of 2023, Manfred was unanimously approved for another five-year term, with no reports that there was any hesitation or alternative path considered by the bloc.

As with all modern sports leagues, baseball has been gradually pivoting from cable TV towards online streaming. This has not been without challenges, as seen by the tumultuous recent history of the Diamond Sports Group, but the league has also signed lucrative streaming deals with outfits like Apple and NBC. That’s in addition to national deals with traditional broadcasters like Fox and ESPN. As Diamond Sports Group’s relationship with MLB clubs has splintered, the league has taken over broadcasts for some clubs and has future plans for a multi-team streaming package, which would essentially be like MLB.tv but without blackout restrictions.

Despite various challenges, Manfred said in late 2022 that league revenue would be a record $11 billion, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. At the time of Manfred’s extension vote in July of last year, the league pointed out on X that attendance was trending up, perhaps a symptom of those pace-of-play changes. Franchise valuations continue to rise over time, highlighted by the recent agreement to purchase the Orioles. A group led to Peter Angelos purchased the club in 1993 for $173MM and his family agreed to sell it recently to a group led by David Rubenstein for $1.725 billion, multiplying roughly tenfold in just over 30 years.

Everyone in baseball, from fans to historians to players and owners, will naturally form their own opinions of Manfred and his tenure. For now, he still has much on his plate in the remainder of his term. The A’s relocation is still ongoing and the future of Diamond Sports Group remains up in the air. Manfred has also said that he would like to get the ball rolling on expanding the league to 32 teams by the time he leaves.

The league will also have to start a process for replacing him, though they have five years to plan that out. When Selig was stepping down, Manfred was quickly seen as a favorite to succeed him, having already represented the league in collective bargaining talks for many years. Manfred was named the league’s chief operating officer in September of 2013 and Selig reportedly preferred him as his successor. A committee was formed in May of 2014 consisting of seven owners, with the eventual vote requiring 23 out of 30 owners to approve a new commissioner. Manfred and Red Sox chairman Tom Werner were the two finalists, with the initial voting in August 2014 resulting in a 22-8 split, which was in favor of Manfred but not enough to seal the deal. It eventually got over the line the next day.

Moreno: No Plans To Sell Angels, Team Likely To Operate On “Lower” Budget In 2024

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Angels owner Arte Moreno spoke to Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register this week, touching on various topics. Notably, he said that he has no plans to sell the team and that the club’s payroll is going to be lower in 2024.

Moreno announced in August of 2022 that he was planning to explore a sale of the club, but another announcement in January of 2023 indicated he was no longer pursuing that path. While some fans may have hoped he would reconsider, it doesn’t seem that is in his plans.

“I am here long term,” Moreno said to Fletcher this week. “There are some people that came back and some people that knew I had it on the market (in 2022). I basically said it’s not on the market.”

Moreno did leave the door open to being blown away by a crazy offer, suggesting if an interested party offers something “really stupid” he’d have to consider. Outside that scenario, it doesn’t seem like a sale is on the table.

That leaves questions about the long-term plan of certain elements, such as the club’s home ballpark of Angel Stadium. Moreno was hoping to purchase the venue with an eye on developing the area around it into a sort of ballpark village with residential and commercial spaces. That plan seemingly died in May of 2022 when Anaheim City Council voted against it. The process was marred by controversy, with Anaheim mayor Harry Sidhu resigning amid an FBI investigation alleging that he shared insider information with the club in the hope of soliciting campaign contributions. It was just a few months later that Moreno announced he was considering selling the club.

It doesn’t seem like there’s any momentum to revisiting plans for that development project, with Moreno suggesting city officials don’t have “an appetite” for the plan. Anaheim’s current mayor, Ashleigh Aitken, also provided a statement to Fletcher:

“We’re open to looking at the future of baseball and welcome a fresh start in crafting a proposal that is good for Anaheim and our residents. I’m all ears. We know what works, and we’ve seen what didn’t. We welcome a fair proposal. As a city, we’re committed to building on decades of baseball in Anaheim for generations to come.”

With Moreno seemingly not looking to purchase the stadium at the moment, the Angels continue to lease it. That deal runs through 2029 but with three-year options that go through 2038. Moreno demurred when asked how that would play out. “Do you know where you’re going to be in 2038? Do you know how old I am? This year I’ll be 78. That’s a long time.”

Turning to the near future, Moreno addressed the 2024 club and admitted that the club’s plan is to “set the budget lower,” but without providing specifics.

The Angels were willing to spend near the competitive balance tax last year and were even over the line for a time. But as they fell out of contention, they put various veteran players on waivers in order to shed their salaries. They also put Max Stassi on the restricted list as he was away from the club due to a personal matter, which was later revealed by his wife to be the premature birth of their son, which led to various health complications for the child.

In the end, the club successfully ducked under the tax line. Some observers wondered if the club would enter a rebuild with Shohei Ohtani hitting free agency, but general manager Perry Minasian quickly shot down those ideas in November when he plainly stated that they would not rebuild and would actually be aggressive this winter.

The club has indeed been active, though whether they’ve been “aggressive” is up for debate. The Halos have mostly been focused on the bullpen, signing Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis García, Adam Cimber and José Cisnero. Despite those signings, their payroll is at $173MM and their CBT number at $188MM, per Roster Resource. That puts them almost $50MM below the tax and almost $40MM below last year’s Opening Day payroll of $212MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

If they were willing to get back to those levels again this year, they would be a viable player for a late-winter splash on one of the top remaining free agents, with Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman still available. But perhaps that’s less likely if the budget is going to decrease, though it’s not clear how far they intend to drop payroll. Circling back to Ohtani, Moreno confirmed a December report that the Halos were not willing to match the heavily-deferred $700MM deal that Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.

With Ohtani gone, the club is no longer obligated to run a six-man rotation, something they did to limit Ohtani’s workload while serving as a two-way player. Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports that the club is planning to use a traditional five-man rotation this year, with Sam Bachman and José Suarez to be stretched out.

Those two figure to be in competition for a spot at the back of the rotation. If everyone is healthy, the front four should be Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval and Tyler Anderson. That leaves one spot for someone like Bachman, Suarez, Chase Silseth or Zach Plesac.

Suarez, 26, seemed to be breaking out as a viable starter over 2021 and 2022. He pitched around 100 innings in each of those campaigns with his earned run average finishing just a bit below 4.00 both times. But last year was challenging, as he missed significant time due to a left shoulder strain and only tossed 33 2/3 innings with an 8.29 ERA. He’ll look to get back on track with better health this year. He’s out of options and will need to be in the bullpen if he doesn’t win a rotation job, or else be removed from the 40-man roster entirely.

Bachman, 24, was selected ninth overall in 2021 and made his MLB debut last year. He made 11 appearances out of the bullpen in the big leagues, with a 3.18 ERA in those. He landed on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation in July and wasn’t able to make it back after that.

He was a starter on his way up the minor league ladder but has yet to build up a huge workload. He pitched 75 2/3 innings in college in 2019, but then was limited to just 23 2/3 in the 2020 season. In 2021, he tossed 59 2/3 in college and then another 14 1/3 in High-A after his draft selection, getting to 74 on the year. In 2022, he was in Double-A but only logged 43 2/3 innings as back spasms and biceps inflammation slowed him down. Last year, he threw 26 1/3 frames at Double-A before adding another 17 in the minors, combining for 43 1/3.

All told, he’s yet to reach 80 innings in a season and didn’t even get to 45 in either of the past two years. It’s understandable that the club still wants to develop their first-rounder as a starter going forward, given his youth, upside and full slate of options. But it’s likely going to be a long-term project since he’ll have to take gradual steps forward in terms of increasing that workload.

Whit Merrifield Deal Expected This Weekend

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It’s been a quiet offseason for three-time All-Star Whit Merrifield in his first trip through free agency, but the 35-year-old has been in contact with as many as five teams recently and expects to make a decision by the end of the weekend, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports.

Merrifield has twice led the American League in hits and has also paced the league in stolen bases on three different occasions. He’s coming off an uneven year at the plate, having enjoyed an excellent four-month stretch to begin 2023 before a sluggish two-month finish weighed down his end-of-season numbers.

Merrifield batted .272/.318/.382 overall, with 11 home runs, 27 doubles and 26 steals, but his production looked far more impressive before the calendar flipped to August. As of July 31, Merrifield boasted a robust .303/.351/.430 slash (118 wRC+). Over the final two months of the season, though, he fell into perhaps the most prolonged slump of his career, hitting just .212/.250/.288 in his final 196 trips to the plate for the Blue Jays.

That downturn at the plate, paired with his age, has likely tempered some of Merrifield’s earning power. On the one hand, he had some poor fortune on balls in play down the stretch, evidenced by a .247 BABIP that’s nowhere near his career mark of .321 or the .347 mark he posted through the season’s first four months. On the other, chalking the slump up to “bad luck” wouldn’t be accurate.

Merrifield’s already-low 85.4 mph average exit velocity and 26% hard-hit rate dipped to 83.4 mph and 20.4% from August onward. He didn’t see a marked uptick in strikeouts but did hit nine hapless infield flies over those final 196 trips to the dish after hitting just six such balls throughout the season’s first four months. More than a quarter of Merrifield’s batted balls from Opening Day through the end of July were line drives; over the final two months of the season, his line-drive rate was just 15.2%.

That tough finish to the season derailed what was shaping up to be a bounceback season for Merrifield. He’d still been a productive player in the 2021-22 seasons, but his offensive output had fallen off from his 2017-20 peak, when he batted a combined .297/.345/.452 (111 wRC+). Instead, his 2023 output wound up closely in line with the .265/.309/.386 slash he posted in 2021-22.

Beyond Merrifield’s lengthy track record of piling up hits and stolen bases, his defensive versatility has long been an appealing aspect of his game. He’s spent more time at second base than any other position, but Merrifield also has 2775 career innings in the outfield (where he’s played all three slots) in addition to briefer looks at first base (97 innings) and third base (31 innings).

With the Jays in 2023, Merrifield evenly split time between second base (595 innings) and left field (594) in addition to a handful of innings in right field (37). Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as a plus-plus defender at second base as recently as 2021 but has given him negative grades in each of the past two seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric remains bullish and has pegged him as an above-average second baseman in each of the past four seasons, including a +4 mark in ’23. Defensive metrics tend to agree that while Merrifield had some solid defensive showings in the outfield earlier in his career, he was below-average last season (-4 DRS and OAA alike).

That versatility is undoubtedly still part of Merrifield’s appeal, though he spoke earlier this offseason about the pros and cons of moving around the diamond as much as he has. Back at the Winter Meetings, Merrifield sat down with Matt Vasgersian and Harold Reynolds on MLB Network’s Hot Stove to discuss free agency and his versatility (video link).

“I’ve said for a long time now — second base, I feel, is my best position,” Merrifield explained in early December. “When I get to play second base every day, I feel defensively I’m as good as anybody, when I can stay there and play sharp. But I know there’s value to being able to bounce around now, especially in today’s game. The versatility aspect of it is big, but then again … when you start talking about a player’s value, when you bounce around, you’re just not as sharp in certain areas. … There’s give and take. I can bounce around, but I can also be a pretty good second baseman.”

Those comments speak to a preference for second base, but Merrifield has also emphasized that he’s open to playing anywhere and recognizes how that willingness can benefit him in the free agent process. There aren’t many clubs at this stage of the offseason with a glaring hole at second base specifically — the White Sox, Brewers and Pirates could all potentially use help there, speculatively speaking — but the majority of contenders could easily fit a hitter with Merrifield’s track record into that familiar second base/outfield hybrid role in which he’s excelled in recent seasons.

Kyle Bradish Diagnosed With UCL Sprain, Will Begin Season On Injured List

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Pitchers and catchers reported to camp for the Orioles today, but report date has brought unwelcome news for O’s fans. General manager Mike Elias announced to the team’s beat writers this morning that right-hander Kyle Bradish has been diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow (X link via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). He’s already received a platelet-rich plasma injection and will begin a throwing progression tomorrow, but he’ll open the season on the injured list.

Elias also revealed that Gunnar Henderson is behind schedule due to an oblique injury that’ll still need another two to three weeks of downtime, though the team isn’t concerned that he’ll miss much, if any time. Top catching prospect Samuel Basallo, meanwhile, has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow and will be limited to DH work in camp. He could begun throwing again by late April (X link via the Banner’s Andy Kostka). In even more injury news, lefty John Means is about a month behind the rest of the O’s starters, as the team had him delay the start of his offseason program after an elbow flare-up prior to last year’s ALDS (via Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun).

The Bradish injury is a brutal blow for the defending AL East champions, who saw the right-hander emerge as their clear No. 1 starter in a breakout performance last season. The 27-year-old Bradish made 30 starts and pitched 168 2/3 innings with a 2.83 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 49.2% ground-ball rate. He’d been expected to open the season as Baltimore’s No. 2 starter behind newly acquired ace Corbin Burnes, but that clearly won’t happen now.

The injury occurred when Bradish began throwing in January, Elias added (X link via Meyer). The GM struck an optimistic tone, noting that “everything is pointing in the right direction” for the talented right-hander.

Still, any UCL injury for a pitcher is going to be met with immense levels of both trepidation and caution, given the potential for Tommy John surgery. The O’s, to be clear, have made no mention that a Tommy John procedure is a consideration at the moment — but a sprain, by definition, involves some degree of tearing in the ligament. We’ve seen plenty of pitchers diagnosed with a UCL sprain avoid surgery in recent years (Aaron Nola, Ervin Santana, Anthony DeSclafani to name a few), but the majority of UCL injuries eventually result in surgery of some kind. Again, that outcome hasn’t yet been broadcast by the team, and Bradish will clearly hope to add his name to the list of pitchers who’ve managed to rest/rehab a ligament injury without going under the knife.

With Bradish and Means both likely to begin the year on the injured list, Baltimore’s rotation outlook is radically altered. Burnes is surely still penciled in to take the ball on Opening Day, and he’ll presumably be followed by righties Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. The final two spots on the staff are far less certain. Options on the 40-man roster include righties Tyler Wells and Jonathan Heasley as well as lefties Cole Irvin and Bruce Zimmermann. Wells’ success as a starter early in the ’23 season and Irvin’s track record in Oakland could give them a leg up in what will presumably be a spring competition.

That said, it was already arguable that the O’s could benefit from an aggressive push to further bolster the starting staff, and uncertainty regarding their No. 2 starter and Means, their former top starter (prior to Tommy John surgery) will only rekindle speculation. Top free agents like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned, and the free-agent market also has several solid back-of-the-rotation veterans, including Michael Lorenzen and Hyun Jin Ryu. Trade candidates like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett have not changed hands this winter. If the club is more pessimistic about Bradish’s injury than has been let on thus far, there’s an uncommonly large supply of potential reinforcements to consider.

Obviously, any additions will require further spending, whether financial or in terms of prospect capital (or both). But the Orioles are generally well positioned to make some kind of addition, should they find a deal to their liking. The team’s long-term payroll outlook is pristine, with only $1MM in guarantees on the books beyond the current season. Their projected 2024 payroll (per Roster Resource) is just $96MM — nearly $70MM shy of the franchise-record mark for Opening Day payroll. And even after trading Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to acquire Burnes, the O’s are still ranked by both Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic as the game’s No. 1 farm system.

Phillies, Zack Wheeler Have Opened Extension Talks

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The Phillies have begun extension discussions with Zack Wheeler’s camp at Wasserman, the star righty told reporters (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic). Talks are in the early stages and there’s no indication a deal is imminent.

Philadelphia has made no secret of its desire to retain Wheeler beyond the 2024 season. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki wrote in December the Phils considered an extension a priority. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went on record to confirm that last week.

Wheeler, who turns 34 in May, is entering the final season of a five-year free agent contract. The club’s $118MM investment over the 2019-20 offseason has been one of the best free agent acquisitions of the past few years. Wheeler has turned in a 3.06 ERA over his first four seasons in Philadelphia. He has appeared on Cy Young ballots in three of them, including a runner-up finish in 2021. Only Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcántara and teammate Aaron Nola have thrown more innings since the start of 2020.

The former #6 overall pick didn’t show many signs of slowing down a year ago. Wheeler took a full slate of 32 starts and worked 192 innings. While his 3.61 ERA was his highest as a Phillie, that partially reflects a spike in offense around the league. Wheeler’s 26.9% strikeout rate matches his prior season’s output. He walked only 5% of opponents and finished 13th in MLB in innings. Wheeler induced swinging strikes on a career-best 13.3% of his offerings and averaged a robust 95.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball.

Wheeler is under contract for $23.5MM for the upcoming season. An extension would surely come with larger annual salaries for 2025 and beyond. Long-term extensions for pitchers covering their mid-30s are rare, as one might imagine. Over the past five seasons, the only starter to sign an extension covering at least three years at age 33 or older is Yu Darvish. Last February, the Padres inked Darvish to a surprising five-year, $90MM pact covering his age 37-41 seasons.

That’s not a great comparison point for Wheeler, who is three years younger than the San Diego righty was at the time. An extension would take effect in his age-35 campaign. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, two pitchers — Max Scherzer and former teammate Jacob deGrom — have secured nine-figure free agent deals at that age. deGrom landed a five-year, $185MM guarantee from the Rangers at 35 last winter. Scherzer secured a three-year, $130MM pact from the Mets covering his age 37-39 campaigns in November ’21. The $43.333MM average annual value was a record at the time; it’s now tied for second after being matched by Justin Verlander and topped by Shohei Ohtani.

Wheeler hasn’t matched the levels of dominance turned in by deGrom and Scherzer at their best. He has a far better durability track record than deGrom, though, and he’s a couple years younger than Scherzer was when he signed with New York. Those pitchers had the benefit of open market bidding. Wheeler won’t have that in extension talks with Philadelphia, but it’d very likely take something approaching free agent prices for him to sign early.

“I just want to be paid [based on] how I’ve done, what they expect out of me,” he told reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). “It’s not all about the money to me, either. I took less to come here and be in a good spot and be happy and for my family to be happy. I do want — what’s the right word? — I want what I feel like I’ve earned. … Market value. There you go.”

Wheeler has a solid case for a four-year deal that pushes well into nine figures. He has a better track record than the likes of Sonny Gray and Chris Bassitt, each of whom secured three-year deals covering their age 34-36 campaigns. Gray landed $75MM from the Cardinals this winter, while Bassitt inked a $63MM pact with the Blue Jays a year ago.

The Phillies haven’t been shy about making long-term commitments, although they don’t have anyone making more than $28MM annually. Each of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Taijuan Walker are on the books for at least $18MM per season beyond next year. The deals for Turner, Harper, Nola, Castellanos and Walker stretch at least into 2026.

Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2025 payroll around $171MM; they’re at approximately $187MM in luxury tax obligations. The base tax threshold for the ’25 season will be $241MM. A Wheeler extension would likely push their tax number past $215MM, potentially north of $220MM. They’re set to exceed the threshold for a third straight season in 2024, so they’d be subject to the maximum penalties for repeat payors in ’25 and beyond. That hasn’t been a stumbling block for owner John Middleton in recent years. A Wheeler extension would all but ensure they’d pay the CBT for at least a fourth consecutive season in 2025.

There doesn’t seem to be a firm deadline for a deal to get done. Wheeler suggested he’d be amenable to continuing talks beyond Opening Day but noted he’s taking a “hands-off” approach to negotiations between the team and his agents.

Young: Rangers Do Not Expect Further Additions

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Rangers fans have been holding out hope for a reunion with left-hander Jordan Montgomery, but general manager Chris Young threw plenty of cold water on that possibility Wednesday, telling the team’s beat that any notable acquisitions are unlikely at this point (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News).

“I don’t think there are any additions coming at this point,” Young candidly stated. While he maintained that the Rangers will “keep an open mind” on free agents (including Montgomery), he also noted that long-term uncertainty regarding the team’s television contract “is real” and has impacted spending this offseason — even on the heels of a World Series win.

The lack of marquee additions has frustrated some fans who’ve grown accustomed to lavish free agent expenditures in recent years. The Rangers famously spent more than a half billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray two offseasons ago and followed that with a pitching-heavy attack in free agency last winter, signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney for a combined $234MM. Texas also picked up two high-profile arms at last year’s deadline when acquiring Montgomery and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. Montgomery, of course, is a free agent and remains unsigned. Scherzer will be sidelined into June or July following offseason back surgery.

Currently, Roster Resource projects the Rangers for a franchise-record $220MM payroll. That comes with $243MM worth of luxury tax obligations, setting the stage for Texas to be a luxury payor for the second straight season. Texas only paid $1.8MM in luxury fees last year, but as a second-time payor they’ll face steeper penalties for eclipsing this year’s $237MM threshold.

Right now, sitting about $6MM over the first barrier, the Rangers are only on the hook for a 30% overage fee. They’ll pay roughly that same $1.8MM penalty if no further deals are made, but between small-scale signings, late trade acquisitions and/or in-season pickups near the trade deadline, that figure will likely rise.

The ostensible lack of willingness to meet Montgomery’s asking price in free agency has proved the greatest point of consternation among fans. Where that asking price stands at present isn’t clear, but it’s fair to expect that Montgomery and his reps at the Boras Corporation are still eyeing a nine-figure contract and an annual salary ranging from $20-25MM.

The Rangers, as second-time luxury payors, would be on the hook for a good bit more than that. They’d owe a 30% tax on the next $14MM worth of AAV (average annual value) added to their payroll and another 42.5% on subsequent spending. Just setting a speculative AAV of $23MM on Montgomery, that would position the Rangers to pay an additional $8.025MM in taxes on top of Montgomery’s salary. Texas could try to backload the deal or defer salary, but that would do nothing to change the luxury tax hit. In other words, depending on where exactly Montgomery’s AAV lands, he’d cost the Rangers something in the vicinity of an extra $7-9MM on top of what he’s earning.

That theoretical Montgomery signing would also make it far likelier that they’ll be third-time payors in 2025. A Montgomery deal would likely push Texas to around $170MM worth of luxury obligations in ’25, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Nathaniel Lowe (earning $7.5MM this season), Jonah Heim ($3.05MM in ’23), Dane Dunning ($3.325MM in ’23), Leody Taveras ($2.55MM in ’23), Brock Burke ($1.035MM in ’23) and Josh Sborz ($1.025MM in ’23).

A conservative estimate for the Rangers’ 2025 arb class would clock in around $30MM, meaning with a theoretical Montgomery deal they’d be over $200MM in tax considerations before making a single addition to the 2025 roster. Long-term deals for core players like Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Evan Carter or even top prospect Wyatt Langford would only push that luxury number further north.

It’s fair to debate just how much Rangers ownership should fret over the luxury tax, of course. The team is still entering its fourth season (with fans) in a new stadium that provided a revenue boost, and last year’s World Series win provided ample additional revenue as well. Texas needn’t worry about sacrificing any draft value unless the team is more than $40MM over the threshold — the point at which a club’s top pick is dropped by 10 places in the following year’s draft. It’s unlikely they’d hit that level even if they were to re-sign Montgomery, and they’d be a long ways from that level next offseason as well, even with Montgomery on the books.

Still, every ownership group has its limits, and it seems the Rangers’ group has reached — or is at the very least approaching — its own limits for the upcoming season. If that’s indeed the case, Texas will rely on a patchwork starting staff in the season’s first half with an eye toward potential returns for deGrom, Scherzer and right-hander Tyler Mahle (who inked a two-year, $22MM deal earlier this winter) following the All-Star break.

At the moment, the Rangers’ rotation will likely include Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney, Dunning and left-hander Cody Bradford. Right-hander Yerry Rodriguez and non-roster invitees like Jose Ureña and Adrian Sampson could factor into the group as well. There are a handful of notable arms who could be signed to low-cost one-year deals, and the Rangers could continue stockpiling veterans on non-roster pacts, just as they’ve done with Ureña and Sampson — the latter of whom only signed yesterday.

More broadly, it’ll be a big year for the development of former touted prospects like Jack Leiter, Owen White and Cole Winn. All three are former top-60 draft picks — Leiter was selected second overall — who’ve ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects. However, all three struggled through ugly seasons in the upper minors in 2023 and have seen their stock drop amid those struggles.

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