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Padres Reportedly Close To Signing Yuki Matsui

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The Padres are close to signing a deal with free agent left-hander Yuki Matsui, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Earlier, Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X links) reported that the Friars had offered Matsui a contract and also relayed a Japanese-language report from Sankei Sports. The Google translation of that report says that the southpaw has already undergone a medical check, though it seems nothing is official quite yet. Morosi relays that it will be a multi-year deal, though the financial are not yet known at this time.

Matsui, 28, is a left-handed reliever that has 10 years of experience in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, having debuted back in 2014. He has an earned run average of 2.40 in his 501 career games, tossing 659 2/3 innings. He has 236 saves in that time, including at least 24 in each of the past three campaigns. He’s coming off a strong 2023 season as well, with a tiny ERA of 1.57 while recording 39 saves. He struck out 32.4% of batters faced this year while walking just 5.9%.

In addition to his excellent results, Matsui is notable for his size, listed at just 5’8″ and 167 pounds. That unusual frame didn’t stop MLB clubs from having interest, with the Cardinals having recently hosted Matsui in St. Louis, though the Padres will apparently be the one to seal the deal.

Beyond his skills, Matsui surely intrigued clubs due to the fact that he reached proper free agency by reaching nine years of service time. Unlike some other pitchers coming over from Japan, such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Matsui isn’t currently connected to any NPB club. That means the MLB club that signs him won’t be subject to a posting fee on top of the contract itself.

Matsui has consistently featured on MLBTR’s NPB Players to Watch series this year, with Dai Takegami Podziewski reporting on Matsui’s four-pitch mix, featuring a fastball, splitter, slider and curveball. The southpaw reportedly had some trouble adapting to the ball in the World Baseball Classic, which is closer to the one used in MLB. There’s always some uncertainty with foreign players since they are unproven in North America, and while Matsui’s size and issues with the WBC ball perhaps add to that, clubs are often intrigued by the possibility of unearthing a hidden gem.

That’s especially true of the Padres, for whom the budget has been a focus all year. Due to the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the club’s broadcast rights reverted to MLB during the year. It was later reported that the Friars took out a loan to cover expenses and all recent reporting has pointed to a drop in payroll relative to recent years, likely resulting in them staying under the competitive balance tax in 2024.

Their offseason moves to this point have mostly been about clearing out payroll space. The Padres sent outfielders Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for five players, then sent lefty Ray Kerr to Atlanta as a means to get some of Matt Carpenter’s contract off the books.

Roster Resource currently pegs the club CBT number at $205MM for next year, with the base threshold to be $237MM. That gives the club a bit of room to work with but they still have some things to do. They likely want to find two outfielders to replace Soto and Grisham while also perhaps looking for a designated hitter and some more starting pitching.

But the bullpen is also an issue, with Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, Luis García and Tim Hill now free agents. That means the club will have work to do just to get back to 2023 levels, when their relievers posted a collective ERA of 3.80, the tenth-best mark in the league.

No one is going to expect Matsui to replace Hader as one of the best relievers in the league, but he can certainly bolster the club’s southpaw relief mix, which currently consists of Tom Cosgrove and Adrián Morejón. The former had a solid season in 2023 but still has less than a year of major league experience, while the latter has had ongoing injury issues and is coming off a poor showing this year. Perhaps this is the first of many moves as the Padres pivot from subtracting salary to adding it, looking to fill out the roster for 2024.

Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.

MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).

Pirates, Martín Pérez Agree To One-Year Deal

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The Pirates and left-hander Martín Pérez are in agreement on a contract, pending a physical, per a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. It will be a one-year, $8MM deal, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Pérez, 33 in April, had a career year in 2022 but couldn’t keep it going into the following campaign. Last year, he made 32 starts for the Rangers and logged 196 1/3 innings with a 2.89 earned run average. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below league average but his 8.4% walk rate was solid and his 51.4% ground ball rate was strong. He was also quite good at missing barrels and limiting hard contact that year.

He likely benefitted from a high strand rate of 77% and a low 6.5% rate of fly balls leaving the yard, which is why his 3.27 FIP and 4.08 SIERA were a bit less impressive. But it was a strong season nonetheless, with his 4.0 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 5.0 from Baseball Reference both career highs by wide margins. The Rangers had enough faith in that performance to issue Pérez a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he accepted.

Unfortunately, the regression gods came for him in 2023, with Pérez struggling enough to get moved to the bullpen in August after the Rangers acquired Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline. At that point, Pérez had an ERA of 4.98, with his strikeout rate having dropped to 14.4% and his grounder rate down to 41%. He pitched reasonably well out of the bullpen over the final two months of the season, eventually dropping his ERA to 4.45, but it was obviously not the season the Rangers envisioned at that price point.

The Pirates will be paying him less than half of what he made last year and likely won’t be expecting anything like that 2022 campaign, as it stands out as a clear outlier. But even if they get the solid back-end guy that Pérez has been for the rest of his career, that will be an upgrade for their rotation. From 2012 to 2021, Pérez threw 1,102 2/3 innings with a 4.71 ERA. He didn’t get many strikeouts but limited his walks to around league average and got grounders on almost half of balls in play.

The Pittsburgh starting rotation had an ERA of 4.88 in 2023 as the stability was quite low. Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo each made 32 starts, but Oviedo won’t be an option for 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. Rich Hill made 22 starts for the club but then went to the Padres at the deadline and is now a free agent. 12 other hurlers made at least one start for the Bucs for the year.

The club later added Marco Gonzales from Atlanta, who had just acquired him from Seattle as salary ballast in the Jarred Kelenic trade. Between Gonzales and Pérez, the club has added a couple of soft-tossing veteran lefties to hopefully eat some innings and stabilize the situation while perhaps turning into trade chips by the deadline, as was the case with Hill this year and José Quintana the year prior. Those two vets and Keller should take three rotation spots, leaving a couple of roles available for less-proven guys like Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf or Kyle Nicolas, with this year’s first overall pick Paul Skenes perhaps not too far off.

This deal brings Pittsburgh’s payroll up to $66MM, per Roster Resource. General manager Ben Cherington has previously indicated that next year’s payroll could be an increase over their $73MM figure from Opening Day 2023.

Royals Sign Michael Wacha

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December 18: The Royals have now officially announced the deal.

December 15: The Royals’ active offseason is continuing, as Kansas City has agreed to terms with free agent righty Michael Wacha, per a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a two-year, $32MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds. The second season is a player option, so Wacha will have the opportunity to opt back into free agency next winter. The contract pays the CAA client an even $16MM in each season, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Wacha can earn an additional $500K via incentives in each season of the deal.

It’s the second notable free-agent pickup of the day for the Royals, who also agreed to a two-year $13MM deal with Hunter Renfroe earlier this morning. Kansas City has also added righty Seth Lugo on a three-year, $45MM pact that contains an opt-out after the second season. Wacha and Lugo, who were teammates with the Padres in 2023, will join a Royals rotation that includes Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles. Depth options include Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery), Max Castillo, Alec Marsh and Jonathan Heasley, among others.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM deal matches the exact terms of a two-year club option that the Padres declined earlier this offseason. The inclusion of an opt-out provision and some modest incentives makes this a stronger deal for the righty, however. Kansas City will be Wacha’s sixth team in six years, as his trips to free agency have routinely resulted in either a one-year pact (Mets, Rays, Red Sox) or a multi-year deal with options and/or opt-out opportunities (Padres).

Over the past two seasons, between the Red Sox and Padres, Wacha has posted a combined 3.27 ERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 37.7% ground-ball rate. Despite being more of a fly-ball pitcher, he’s allowed a manageable 1.14 homers per nine frames. Pitching his home games at the spacious Kauffman Stadium should help him continue to avoid the long ball at an acceptable rate despite his pronounced fly-ball tendencies.

In those two seasons, Wacha has changed up his pitch selection, reducing his reliance on a four-seamer while increasing the usage rates on his sinker and changeup. He threw both pitches at a career-high rate in 2022 and then set a new career-high in usage again in 2023. While the more frequent sinker usage hasn’t shown up in Wacha’s ground-ball rates, he’s posted improved batted-ball metrics; last year’s 88.1 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate were both lower than the league averages of 89 mph and 39.2%, respectively. That’s helped Wacha to offset his slightly below-average strikeout rate.

The number of innings that the Royals can expect from Wacha is perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding him. Wacha has been placed on the injured list nine times in his big league career, with five of those IL placements stemming from shoulder troubles (including a six-week absence in the 2023 season). Wacha has also had IL stints for oblique, hamstring, knee and intercostal strains. While the shoulder is an obvious concern, Wacha did manage a solid 3.88 ERA in 48 2/3 innings after returning from this past season’s shoulder issue. He closed out the year with a pair of particularly impressive outings, tossing consecutive seven-inning gems (two total runs allowed on nine hits and two walks with 13 strikeouts).

With Wacha, Renfroe, Lugo, Will Smith, Chris Stratton and Garrett Hampson all signing major league deals in Kansas City this month, the Royals have committed $105MM in total free-agent dollars in a span of just over two weeks. It’s unlikely all of those dollars will end up being paid out, as each of Wacha, Renfroe, Stratton and Lugo received player options/opt-outs within their respective contracts. Still, it’s a hefty slate of investments by Kansas City’s standards — one that’s added an additional $47MM in payroll to the team’s 2024 roster (a net $45.75MM, when factoring in that Taylor Clarke and his $1.25MM salary were traded to the Brewers to make roster space for Lugo).

The relatively heavy investment in free-agent arms represents something of an acknowledgement from the Kansas City front office that its previous efforts to rebuild a homegrown rotation with a heavy focus on college arms in the draft simply hasn’t panned out. Singer, Lynch, Bubic, Marsh, Jackson Kowar and Asa Lacy were at one point focal components of the Royals’ hopes for the future, but only Singer remains locked into the rotation but is in need of a bounceback campaign after he was unable to carry his 2022 breakout into the 2023 season. Kowar was traded to the Braves for injured starter Kyle Wright (who’ll miss all of 2024). Lacy has yet to reach the Majors. Lynch and Marsh haven’t established themselves. Bubic showed some promise before tearing his left ulnar collateral ligament and undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Kansas City’s new-look rotation should represent a massive improvement over last year’s group, which pitched to a combined 5.12 ERA, ranking 27th in the big leagues. Gone from that mix are Brad Keller, Ryan Yarbrough and (at least for now) Zack Greinke. Other key names in 2023, Lynch most prominently, have been pushed down the depth chart. It’s not yet clear what lies ahead for the Royals and Greinke. The future Hall of Famer spent the past two seasons back with his original organization and at least ostensibly seemed poised to close out his career there. It’s possible the two parties still come to terms on another one-year pact, as Greinke is preparing to pitch in 2024, but that would likely push Lyles to the bullpen (or perhaps prompt the Royals to explore a potential trade of the veteran innings eater).

Orioles, Maryland Approve New Lease Agreement

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The Orioles and the state of Maryland have approved a new lease agreement, as reported by multiple outlets and announced by the O’s. “The Baltimore Orioles have agreed to a partnership with the State of Maryland, Governor Wes Moore, and the Maryland Stadium Authority that will keep the Orioles at Camden Yards for thirty years,” the statement begins. It goes on to feature comments from John Angelos, chair and managing partner of the club, as well as Maryland Governor Wes Moore and others. Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner relayed the full press release for those interested.

Though the club announced they are staying at Camden for 30 years, they are currently only committed for 15, with Pamela Wood of the Baltimore Banner and Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball relaying some of the details. If the club and the state can agree to a development plan for the surrounding area in the next four years, then the lease can be expanded from 15 to 30 years.

The new deal comes just in the nick of time, as the previous lease was set to expire at the end of the year. Back in February, the O’s had a chance to extend the lease for another five years but decided not to do so. The hope was that they could work out a longer deal that would allow them to take advantage of a new Maryland law and borrow $600MM for stadium upgrades. In August, it was reported that Angelos was trying to leverage the stadium negotiations into acquiring public land. He reportedly envisioned developing a mixed-use area with commercial and retail spaces, emulating to The Battery and Truist Park where the Braves play in Georgia.

In September, Angelos and Gov. Moore announced a new 30-year lease between the club and the state, though this was actually misleading. Reporting from the next day revealed that they had merely signed a memorandum of understanding, which was legally non-binding. The talks seemed to hit a speed bump when it was reported that private equity mogel David Rubenstein was in talks to acquire the club, causing State senator Bill Ferguson to express some concern with the agreement. This new deal will keep the club in Baltimore while kicking those development negotiations down the road for another four years. The new agreement was reported on Friday and approved today by the Maryland Stadium Authority and then by the Board of Public Works.

The Orioles have until December 31 of 2027 to win approval for a ground lease and development plan for an area that is believed to include the B&O Warehouse, the vacant Camden Station building and an adjacent parking area between the Warehouse and train tracks. If they don’t get those approved, they can continue with the 30-year agreement or switch to a 15-year pact. The 30-year pact also has four extensions of five years available, meaning the club could potentially stay for 50 years as part of this deal. If the ground lease and development plan are approved, it’s possible to change the terms of the 30-year agreement. The O’s and the stadium authority can now start accessing the $600MM in taxpayer-financed bonds that state lawmakers have authorized for major upgrades to the stadium.

Many details of the full agreement have not been publicly revealed and more will surely come out over time.

Braves Release Matt Carpenter

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The Braves have released veteran infielder/designated hitter Matt Carpenter, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Atlanta acquired Carpenter a few days ago, taking on $4MM of this year’s $5.5MM salary (and the associated luxury tax hit) as a means of effectively purchasing left-handed reliever Ray Kerr from the Padres.

While the Braves had hoped to trade Carpenter in similar fashion to Marco Gonzales, Evan White and Max Stassi (all of whom they acquired and quickly dealt away in salary-driven swaps), it seems they weren’t able to find a taker for Carpenter even at that rate. He’ll now be a free agent who’ll cost a new team only the league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster — the Braves and Padres will remain on the hook for the rest of his salary.

Carpenter, 38, had a brilliant bounceback season with the Yankees in 2022 when he slashed .305/.412/.727 with 15 home runs in just 154 trips to the plate. A broken foot ended his season, but that eye-popping resurgence was still enough to land him a two-year, $12MM deal with the Padres last offseason.

Unfortunately for the Padres and Carpenter alike, his 2023 campaign looked more like the 2020-21 version of Carpenter who’d looked to be on the decline. In 237 plate appearances with the Friars last year, Carpenter hit just .176/.322/.319. He still walked at a massive 17.3% clip, but Carpenter’s strikeout rate spiked as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate trended in the other direction. The former Cardinals star’s newfound focus on elevating the ball at career-high levels served him well in 2022, but he perhaps took that too far in ’23, lifting 10 harmless pop-ups in his tiny sample of plate appearances. Given his huge walk and strikeout rates, Carpenter only put 125 balls in play last year — 10 of which were effectively automatic outs.

Now that he’s a free agent and can be signed on a league-minimum MLB deal or even on a minor league deal and spring training invite, Carpenter should draw interest from teams seeking left-handed bats. A return to that Herculean production from the summer of 2022 might not be plausible, but there’d be little to no risk for a new club trying to catch lightning in a bottle in the same manner as the 2022 Yankees did.

Padres “Prefer” To Stay Under Luxury Tax In 2024, Could Reduce Payroll Below $200MM

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The Padres have long been expected to pare down payroll significantly this offseason, with early signals indicating a target payroll of no more than $200MM for the 2024 season as they look to get back into compliance with the league’s debt service rules. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that the club may plan to cut payroll even more drastically, suggesting that the club’s final payroll next season could come in “more than a little lower” than that aforementioned $200MM figure as club officials reportedly “prefer” to stay under the luxury tax threshold in 2024. Importantly, Lin notes that the club would be willing to go “slightly” over the luxury tax if the right opportunity were to present itself later this winter, though it’s unclear what sort of opportunity would be necessary to convince San Diego to push their payroll over the threshold.

While RosterResource projects the Padres for a payroll of just over $152MM as things stand, it projects a significantly larger $205MM payroll for luxury tax purposes. That would leave the club with just under $32MM of budget space remaining for luxury tax purposes if they intend to remain below the first luxury tax threshold, which will sit at $237MM in 2024. That roughly $30MM of wiggle room for luxury tax purposes tracks with Lin’s suggestion that a payroll of around $180MM could allow the Padres to duck below the threshold next year.

Lin goes on to report that the club’s pursuit of outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, who signed with the Giants earlier this week on a six-year, $113MM deal, was impacted by the club’s budget constraints. While Lin notes that San Diego’s offer to Lee was reportedly considered “competitive” but nonetheless was not especially close to the figure offered by San Francisco. Lee’s contract with the Giants sports an average annual value of roughly $18.8MM, meaning landing the outfielder would have required more the remaining space the Padres have available to them below the luxury tax threshold.

As Lin notes, the Padres themselves demonstrated as recently as last offseason that there are ways to creatively structure a deal to deflate its AAV. Right-handers Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez, for example, commanded salaries of $7.5MM and $10MM respectively in 2023 despite carrying AAVs of just $6.5MM and $8.7MM for luxury tax purposes thanks to the complex structures of their contracts. It’s possible that similar deals could allow the Padres additional room to maneuver this offseason as they look to rebuild their starting outfield after shipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to New York as well as a pitching staff that lost Wacha, Martinez, Seth Lugo, Blake Snell, and Josh Hader to free agency last month.

It’s possible some of the club’s holes can be filled internally, with Lin noting that the Padres see the likes of Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee and Robby Snelling, among others, as prospects who could impact the big league club in 2024. Even in San Diego manages to successfully embrace a youth movement, however, it’s hard to imagine the club being able to fill two outfield spots, one rotation spot, and restock the bullpen without making several external additions.

With so many holes on the roster and relatively little wiggle room in the club’s budget for 2024, Lin notes that infielders Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim are both potential trade candidates for the Padres. Kim would surely be an attractive trade candidate if available on the heels of a strong season that saw him slash .260/.351/.398 while playing superb defense all around the infield, and a deal would allow the Padres to shed his $8MM salary in 2024 while potentially bringing back major league ready talent in return.

Cronenworth, on the other hand, would be far more difficult to deal, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored earlier this week. The 29-year-old is coming off the worst season of his career in 2023 and is owed a whopping $80MM over the next seven seasons, making him a less-than-palatable trade target for the majority of clubs. While Cronenworth’s salary is just over $7MM for the 2024 campaign, his contract’s AAV of around $11.5MM counts as a more significant hit against the luxury tax. While Cronenworth is far from the only player locked up long-term the Padres could consider trying to move, others would like present even more significant obstacles.

Right-handers Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove figure to anchor the club’s rotation next season, and dealing either veteran arm would be counterproductive for a club hoping to bolster its rotation depth. It’s a similar story for Robert Suarez in the bullpen. Meanwhile, the likes of Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are due hundreds of millions through at least the 2033 season, making them all far more complicated to move for fair value than Soto, who will be a free agent next season, was. Making a trade for any of the aforementioned names even more complicated is that each player is coming off a season that either saw them produce below their recent career levels, struggle with injury, or both. With plenty of holes to fill and few realistic options for shedding salary available, the Padres face a major uphill battle as they look to improve upon their 82-80 season in 2023 that saw them just miss out on playoff contention.

Dodgers, Tyler Glasnow Finalizing Extension

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The Dodgers’ acquisition of Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays was contingent upon the former agreeing to a contract extension, and a new deal between Glasnow and L.A. is now nearly complete. The Wasserman client will reportedly earn an additional $110MM over four years on top of the $25MM he’d been slated to earn. Glasnow will earn $90MM from 2025-27, and the Dodgers hold a $30MM club option on the 2028 season. If they decline their end, Glasnow has a $20MM player option (thus accounting for the $110MM in guaranteed new money). There’s no deferred money on the contract, which will be considered a five-year, $135MM deal for luxury tax purposes (equating to a $27MM per year hit).

Glasnow, 30, stands as the first notable starting pitching upgrade the Dodgers have made this offseason. His acquisition gives them a top-of-the-rotation talent to bolster the roster — albeit one who’s spent more time on the injured list than the active roster in his career. Last season’s 21 starts and 120 innings were both career-high marks for the 6’8″ right-hander, who has missed time due to Tommy John surgery, a forearm strain, an elbow strain and a significant oblique strain that kept him out for two months to begin the 2023 season.

When he’s been healthy, however, Glasnow has been nothing short of excellent. Since being traded from the Pirates, his original organization, to the Rays in the 2018 Chris Archer heist, Glasnow has worked to a 3.20 earned run average, fanned an enormous 34.1% of his opponents and coupled that with a sharp 7.8% walk rate. He’s long had better-than-average grounder rates, but last year’s 52.1% mark was a career-best. He also notched a huge 16.5% swinging-strike rate that ranked second among all pitchers with at least 100 innings.

It’s a considerable bet to make on a pitcher who’s never topped 120 innings — easily the largest contract ever for anyone with such a limited track record of durability. There is, of course, a lot more nuance to Glasnow’s injury history than that 120 number, which MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes outlined in an article this afternoon for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.  By the way, if you sign up for Front Office, we’ll be happy to send you any recent articles.

The four-year, $110MM in new money and effective five-year, $135MM term of Glasnow’s contract (for luxury tax purposes) roughly fall in line with previous extensions for high-end pitchers with injury concerns. Jacob deGrom inked a four-year, $120.5MM extension several years ago (prior to opting out and signing with the Rangers), and the contract also generally aligns with the five-year, $145MM term on Chris Sale’s Red Sox extensions. Certainly, the Dodgers will be hoping for better results from their own investment.

The rotation in Los Angeles is slated to consist of Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, at present. Emmet Sheehan is likely in line for the fourth spot, while Gavin Stone, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough and others battle it out for the fifth spot on the staff. Of course, L.A. is widely expected to continue adding to the starting five, with reported targets including free agents Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Lucas Giolito, in addition to trade target Dylan Cease. It stands to reason there are other pitchers in both markets currently being eyed by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes and the Dodger front office.

From a payroll perspective, the Dodgers were already squarely into luxury-tax territory, sitting at a projected $251MM, per Roster Resource. Adding an additional $2MM to account for the new tax hit on Glasnow will push them up to about $253MM, which places them $4MM shy of the second tier of penalty.

The Dodgers’ bottom-line payroll is another story entirely, thanks not only the $680MM in deferred money on Shohei Ohtani’s contract but also the $115MM in deferred money on Mookie Betts’ 12-year deal and the $57MM in deferrals on Freddie Freeman’s six-year contract. They still owe well south of $200MM in terms of actual player salary for the upcoming season, even when factoring in projected arbitration salaries. As such, there’s ample room to continue adding significant pieces to the roster, so long as the Dodgers don’t mind being taxed at increasingly steep rates. They’re a third-time luxury payor, so they’ll be taxed at 62% for any dollars spent from $257MM to $277MM, at 95% from $277MM to $297MM, and a hefty 110% for any dollars spent thereafter.

Beyond landing the biggest fish in the history of free agency and acquiring Glasnow and Margot, the Dodgers have also re-signed Jason Heyward and Joe Kelly, brought Daniel Hudson back on a minor league contract and traded lefty Victor Gonzalez to the Yankees in what’s been an active offseason so far. With clear needs in the rotation and perhaps on the bench and in the bullpen, it’s highly unlikely that Friedman, Gomes & co. will consider this their final significant deal of the winter.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported that the extension was all but finalized. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the terms.

Braves Acquire Matt Carpenter, Ray Kerr From Padres

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7:12pm: San Diego is including $1.5MM in cash, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (on X).

6:48pm: The Padres and Braves have agreed to a trade, per announcements from both clubs. Designated hitter Matt Carpenter, left-hander Ray Kerr and cash considerations are heading to Atlanta in exchange for minor league outfielder Drew Campbell.

Carpenter, 38, had a multi-year run of success with the Cardinals but his production dipped towards the end of the previous decade, to the point where he hit just .169/.305/.275  in 2021. He made a concerted effort to revamp his swing before 2022 and it seemed to work. He hit an astounding .305/.412/.727 for the Yankees in 2022, but in just 47 games before he fouled a ball off his foot and had his season ended by a fracture.

The Padres decided to bank on that bounceback, signing him to a two-year deal going into 2023. That guaranteed $12MM and allowed him to opt out after the first season.  He couldn’t keep that magic run with the Yankees going, as his time as a Padre resulted in a line of just .176/.322/.319. As a player who saw all of his time at either designated hitter or first base, the complete lack of offensive productivity put Carpenter on the fringe of the roster.

San Diego kept him on the roster all season. Carpenter made the easy decision to exercise his $5.5MM player option. That’s not an outrageous sum but clearly beyond what San Diego wanted to devote to a player on the bubble. The Friars have spent much of the offseason cutting payroll. It’s unclear how much of the Carpenter deal for which the Padres remain responsible after accounting for the cash considerations, but they’ll offload some portion of the money in exchange for sending Kerr to Atlanta.

A 29-year-old reliever, Kerr was acquired from Seattle as part of the Adam Frazier deal over the 2021-22 offseason. The 6’3″ southpaw has pitched in 29 MLB games over the past two seasons, most of which came this year. Kerr owns a 5.06 ERA in 32 innings, but he has shown a promising arsenal. He has punched out an above-average 28.1% of batters faced at the highest level. Kerr fanned 29% of opponents while pitching to a stellar 2.25 ERA in 36 Triple-A frames last season.

Kerr has atypical velocity for a left-hander. He averaged 96 MPH on his heater and a solid 82.5 MPH on a curveball in his MLB time this year. That resulted in an excellent 14.7% swinging strike percentage. He has never consistently harnessed that power stuff, however. Kerr walked nearly 10% of opponents in the majors and over 11% of batters faced in Triple-A. Over parts of six minor league seasons, he owns an 11.6% walk percentage.

With less than one year of major league service, Kerr is at least two years away from arbitration. He still has a minor league option remaining, so the Braves can keep him at Triple-A Gwinnett for another season. Kerr slots in behind A.J. Minter, recent trade pickup Aaron Bummer, Tyler Matzek and Dylan Lee on the lefty relief depth chart.

Atlanta has shown a willingness to take on part or all of other teams’ undesirable contracts to acquire players of interest. They took on money in the Marco Gonzales and Evan White deals to bring in Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. They subsequently offloaded Gonzales to the Pirates and flipped White to the Angels as part of a deal that brought in David Fletcher and the Max Stassi contract, which they subsequently paid down to deal the catcher to the White Sox.

It’s fair to wonder if they’ll look to move Carpenter as well. For now, he projects as a left-handed bench bat. Atlanta is in the the second tier of luxury penalization and will be second-time payors next year. They’ll therefore pay a 42% tax on whatever portion of the Carpenter contract they’re assuming.

San Diego also adds the 26-year-old Campbell. He was a 23rd round pick in 2019 out of Louisville. A left-handed hitter, Campbell posted a modest .254/.307/.404 slash in 300 plate appearances as a 25-year-old in Double-A. He can play all three outfield spots but spent more time in a corner this year. After going unselected in the Rule 5 draft, he’s likely to start the season in Triple-A.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Sign Rowdy Tellez

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The Pirates announced the signing of first baseman Rowdy Tellez on a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $3.2MM guarantee. Tellez, who is represented by Primo Sports Group, can earn an additional $800K in incentives.

Tellez has spent the past two and a half seasons in the NL Central as a member of the Brewers. He connected on 35 home runs as recently as 2022. Tellez’s power numbers evaporated last season, as he slumped to 13 longballs through 351 trips to the plate. His slugging percentage fell from .461 to a fringy .376 mark.

Overall, the left-handed hitter turned in a .215/.291/.376 line in 106 contests this year. That’s clearly insufficient for a player whose profile is built around the bat. Tellez doesn’t offer any baserunning value and rates as a below-average defender at first base. Combined with his career-worst showing in the batter’s box, he was below replacement level in 2023.

Pittsburgh takes a low-cost roll of the dice to see if Tellez can recapture some of his previous form. He carried a career .236/.307/.462 line into last season. While that’s still middling production from an average and on-base perspective, he’d shown legitimate power upside. Tellez’s 2023 numbers may have been impacted somewhat by health questions. He lost a couple weeks in July with right forearm inflammation before sustaining a fracture on the ring finger of his left hand in an outfield collision while chasing fly balls during batting practice. That kept him out of action until the middle of August.

The 28-year-old was eligible for arbitration for a final time this offseason. Milwaukee declined to tender him a contract at a projected $5.9MM salary. He’ll indeed come up shy of that figure on the open market but he’ll get a big league opportunity for a rebound showing. Tellez will surpass six years of service time next season and return to free agency at year’s end.

Pittsburgh had a clear need for first base help. The Bucs trade Carlos Santana at the deadline, sending the veteran switch-hitter to Milwaukee in a move that was necessitated for the Brewers by Tellez’s struggles and injuries. Pittsburgh relied mostly on Alfonso Rivas down the stretch; they waived him at season’s end and lost him to the Guardians. Santana returned to free agency, leaving the potential for a reunion, but the Bucs will take what is likely to be a lower-cost shot on Tellez instead.

A left-handed hitter, Tellez seems a likely platoon partner for Connor Joe. The latter produced a .265/.365/.452 showing against left-handed pitching last year. Tellez owns a .231/.302/.464 career slash versus righty arms.

Pittsburgh’s player payroll is up to roughly $58MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The Bucs opened the ’23 season around $73MM. GM Ben Cherington said at the Winter Meetings the team anticipates surpassing last year’s spending level. That could leave $20MM+ in further space for the front office, which’ll likely look for a mid-rotation arm and perhaps second base help in the coming weeks.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Pirates were in agreement with Tellez. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported it was a one-year deal that guaranteed roughly $3MM and maxed out at $4MM with incentives. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette specified the $3.2MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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