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Newsstand

Angels, Giants Among Teams Pursuing Blake Snell

By Steve Adams | December 22, 2023 at 11:00pm CDT

The Angels have lost Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers and never appeared to be a finalist for NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but they’re pursuing the biggest fish remaining on the free agent market, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, who reports that the Halos have made reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell “their priority” now that Ohtani has officially departed. The Giants, too, are interested in Snell, per Slusser.

Signing Snell would be a departure from the norm for either club. The Angels’ three-year commitment to Tyler Anderson last offseason was the organization’s first multi-year deal for a free agent starting pitcher since signing Joe Blanton to a two-year contract a decade prior. Owner Arte Moreno has been comfortable with long-term deals for position players — oftentimes mega-deals that haven’t worked out favorably (Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon, Josh Hamilton) — but has generally been wary of similar commitments to pitchers. The Angels did pursue Gerrit Cole when he was a free agent, but they of course lost out to the Yankees’ then-record bid of $324MM. (Yamamoto topped that mark by $1MM when he agreed to terms with the Dodgers.)

Similarly, the Giants have eschewed long-term deals for starting pitchers in five years under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. San Francisco hasn’t gone beyond three years on any starting pitcher under the current regime — arguably a shrewd philosophy but also the reason that Kevin Gausman is starring for the Blue Jays on what now looks to be a wildly affordable five-year, $110MM contract. Zaidi’s club has gone to three years to sign Anthony DeSclafani and issued two-year deals for veterans Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, but longer-term pacts haven’t been in this front office group’s playbook.

Then again, the Giants also haven’t been consistently successful under this front office regime. Their 107-win season in 2021 stands as a clear highlight, but the Giants have fallen well shy of the lofty expectations set by that outlier season. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggested earlier this week in his latest Giants mailbag that ownership could be providing “a little more direction from above” than in prior offseasons — particularly when it comes to this sort of long-term pursuit (one that, as Baggarly rightly notes, is largely possible by virtue of the front office’s prior aversion to taking on this sort of long-term risk). To be clear, Baggarly wasn’t addressing Snell in particular but rather the general philosophical shift associated with pursuing larger-scale additions from the free-agent market.

From a payroll vantage point, both the Halos and Giants can handle a weighty commitment to Snell, who’s reportedly been seeking a commitment of $200MM or more. San Francisco currently projects for a $158MM payroll, per Roster Resource, to say nothing of the fact that the Giants are about $45MM shy of the $237MM luxury-tax threshold. (Luxury tax is calculated by the sum of the average annual value on the payroll and can thus differ from the bottom-line dollars paid out in a given year; contracts are often backloaded or frontloaded for varying purposes.) The only two players signed beyond the 2025 season are ace Logan Webb (five years, $90MM from 2024-28) and newly signed center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, who inked a six-year, $113MM pact.

As for the Angels, they’re stuck paying the aforementioned Rendon $38MM for each of the next three seasons on his backloaded deal. There’s little no hope of trading that cumbersome contract away, so the team can only hope for a return to his Nationals form — unlikely as it may be as he enters his age-34 season. Anderson is signed through 2025 at $13MM per season, and the Angels still owe former MVP Mike Trout $34.45MM annually through the 2030 season.

Even with the huge commitments to Trout and Rendon, the Angels project for a $152MM payroll in 2024 and sit at just $167MM in terms of luxury-tax obligations. That leaves ample room to sign Snell, even if doing so would require shattering the franchise-record for a starting pitcher contract (Jered Weaver’s five-year, $85MM deal).

It stands to reason that with both Ohtani and Yamamoto now off the board, the market for Snell will continue to crystalize in the coming weeks. Several runners-up for Yamamoto, in particular, could pivot to consider Snell — although various reports out of New York have indicated that the Mets aren’t expected to be among them. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote last weekend that the Mets weren’t planning to pursue other top-tier free agents if they fell short in their bid for Yamamoto, whom they considered to be uniquely aligned with their long-term plan given his youth. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo echoed that sentiment today, reporting that the Mets shouldn’t be expected to pursue Snell or fellow free agent Jordan Montgomery.

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Los Angeles Angels New York Mets Newsstand San Francisco Giants Blake Snell

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Tigers Sign Shelby Miller

By Steve Adams | December 22, 2023 at 1:48pm CDT

1:48pm: The Tigers have announced the signing. It’s a one-year contract worth a guaranteed $3MM, the team announced. They also hold a club option worth $4.25MM and a $250K buyout.

The Tigers, who have recently begun announcing the full terms of their contracts, added that Miller can earn an extra $1.175MM per season via incentives. He’ll receive $100K bonuses for reaching each of 50, 55 and 60 games pitched, plus another $125K for reaching 65 and 70 appearances. If he winds up serving as the closer, there’s even more money to be unlocked. The contract calls for $150K bonuses for 40, 45, 50 and 55 games finished.

The value of the club option can also be boosted by $1.4MM. Those escalators are tied to appearances ($100K for 50, 55 and 60 games pitched; $150K for 65 and 70 games pitched) and games finished ($200K for finishing 40, 45, 50 and 55 games).

8:39am: It’s a one-year contract with a 2025 option, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Miller is in Detroit for his physical today, Petzold adds, so the contract should become official soon.

8:26am: The Tigers have agreed to a deal with free agent right-hander Shelby Miller, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The contract is still pending a physical. Detroit’s 40-man roster is full, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move to accommodate this latest addition. Miller is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Miller, 33, enjoyed a resurgent season with the 2023 Dodgers, pitching to a brilliant 1.71 earned run average in 42 innings over 36 appearances (35 relief outings, one start). He fanned a strong 25.8% of his opponents against a bloated 11.7% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 37.4% clip — a few percentage points below the league average. Miller’s fastball is down about a mile per hour from its peak levels, sitting at a league-average 93.6 mph, but he also brandished a newly implemented splitter in 2023, which flummoxed his opponents.

Prior to the 2023 season, Miller had thrown exactly one splitter in his career — way back in 2014. He threw the pitch 26.2% of the time this past season, however, and batters were largely helpless against it. Miller threw 174 splitters in 2023 and finished off 47 plate appearances with the pitch; opponents posted an awful .136/.191/.250 against the pitch in that sample. Statcast credited the pitch with a .170 “expected” opponents’ batting average and a .274 expected slugging percentage.

That marked Miller’s first successful season since back in 2015. While he’d shown flashes of promise in the interim seven years, injuries and poor performances were far more common for the former top prospect and once-promising young starter. The 19th overall pick by the Cardinals back in 2009, Miller debuted in St. Louis as a 21-year-old, pitched to an outstanding 3.22 ERA over his first 575 1/3 big league frames and was twice traded in blockbuster deals — first going from St. Louis to Atlanta in exchange for Jason Heyward and a year later going to Arizona in the trade that brought Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte to the Braves.

Miller struggled immediately with the D-backs and never found his footing before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017. At various points, his career looked to be on the brink, but he persevered through considerable struggles and now, in his mid-30s, looks to have found new life as a quality bullpen arm.

The Dodgers didn’t use him in high-leverage spots often last year, but Miller could have a clearer path to setup work in Detroit. Right-handers Alex Lange and Jason Foley are the primary ninth- and eighth-inning options, respectively, and Detroit brought lefty Andrew Chafin back on a one-year deal as a left-handed setup option as well. But Miller has a good bit more experience than the bulk of the Tigers’ relievers and could find himself in more tight, late-inning spots this season.

Miller becomes the latest addition in what’s been a nice offseason of veteran pickups for the Tigers. Detroit has added righty Kenta Maeda (two years, $24MM) to help stabilize a young pitching staff and also bought low on former Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty (one year, $14MM), who’ll look to return to his prior heights in a new setting. The Tigers kicked off the winter by acquiring Mark Canha from the Brewers and picking up his 2024 option; he’ll join the team’s outfield and DH mix this coming season. Chafin, as previously noted, is returning to Comerica Park, where he excelled in 2022 before struggling with Arizona and Milwaukee in 2023. He and Miller have the potential to meaningfully fortify the Detroit relief corps.

There’s still room for some further additions, be they in the bullpen, on the bench or perhaps around the infield, where Detroit still lacks some certainty at multiple positions. Some of those could come from the trade market rather than free agency, although president of baseball operations Scott Harris indicated this week that he doesn’t envision trading from his newly deepened rotation mix. Wherever further reinforcements come from, the Tigers’ 2024 outlook is already brighter than the 2023 group. It’s a deepened roster that, with some continued development from young players like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and prospects like Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy, could emerge as a viable contender in a weak American League Central division.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Transactions Shelby Miller

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Diamondbacks Re-Sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

By Nick Deeds | December 22, 2023 at 10:30am CDT

Dec. 22: The D-backs have now formally announced the signing.

Dec. 17: The Diamondbacks have agreed to a reunion with free agent outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42MM contract. The deal (which becomes official once Gurriel passes a physical) contains a opt-out clause after the 2025 season, as well as a $14MM club option for the Diamondbacks for the 2027 campaign. Gurriel is represented by Magnus Sports.

The 30-year-old Gurriel played in Arizona in 2023 after he and catcher Gabriel Moreno were acquired from the Blue Jays in the trade that sent Daulton Varsho to Toronto. Gurriel got off to a hot start in his new locale, making his first career All-Star appearance thanks in large part to a blistering month of May (.352/.416/.714 in 101 plate appearances). That production proved to be something of an outlier for the outfielder, however, as he posted a sub-.700 OPS in each of April, June, and July that left him with an overall slash line of just .246/.294/.445 in 388 trips to the plate entering the month of August.

Gurriel managed to turn things back around down the stretch, however, finishing with a .261/.309/.463 slash line to show for 592 PA over the entire regular season. He also performed decently (93 wRC+) in 70 trips to the plate during Arizona’s postseason run, including a .333/.350/.500 slash line against the Rangers during the World Series.

Despite Gurriel’s uneven performance in 2023, he’s been a pretty solid bat throughout his career with an above-average wRC+ every year since he debuted in the majors back in 2018. Since becoming an everyday player during the shortened 2020 season, Gurriel has slashed .279/.326/.456 with a 112 wRC+. He also receives strong marks for his defense in left field, including a +14 Defensive Runs Saves with Arizona last season. While Gurriel managed just five homers in 121 games with the Blue Jays in 2022, he rediscovered his power stroke with the Diamondbacks last year, clubbing 24 home runs to go along with 35 doubles, both career-best figures.

If he can maintain that power output while bouncing back from a career-worst .282 BABIP last season, it’s possible Gurriel can unlock another level of offensive potential as he enters his thirties. The opt-out clause reflects this ceiling, as Gurriel could now re-enter the market heading into his age-32 season after what he hopes are a pair of very productive seasons in the desert.

Given the dearth of consistent offensive options available on the free agent market this offseason, it’s not a shock that Gurriel was able to land a healthy guarantee. The total guarantee of $42MM clocked in below the four-year, $54MM contract MLBTR projected for Gurriel when placing him 14th on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, though it’s worth noting that the average annual value of the deal is, by contrast, higher than we projected. While Gurriel is largely limited to left field defensively and has not yet posted truly impactful offensive numbers over a full season as an everyday player, his consistency and potential upside make him a worthwhile investment for an Arizona club that was looking to add to its outfield mix this offseason.

Looking ahead to 2024, Gurriel profiles as the club’s everyday left fielder where he’ll likely patrol the outfield alongside Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll, with the likes of Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher as depth options behind the starting trio. Gurriel is the only right-handed bat in that outfield mix and could help the club’s outfield produce against left-handers. Arizona struggled badly against left-handed pitching in 2023, though Gurriel slashed an impressive .301/.363/.452 against southpaws. Retaining Gurriel and adding another righty bat in third baseman Eugenio Suarez should help shore up the team’s performance against left-handers.

It has already been a busy offseason for the Diamondbacks, who inked left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year deal earlier this month in addition to the aforementioned trade for Suarez. While Roster Resource projects the Gurriel contract to take the club’s 2024 payroll into uncharted territory with a $140MM figure, it appears that the club does not intend on slowing down from here. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests the club still plans on adding a power-hitting DH to their lineup before the offseason comes to a close, while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale specifically denotes the club’s interest in right-handed veterans J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner. Jorge Soler is another name the club has been connected to in recent weeks that could fill that role.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report the agreement between Gurriel and the Diamondbacks.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel had the length of the deal and the financial terms, while MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand had the details on the opt-out clause and the club option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Arizona Diamondbacks Newsstand Transactions Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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Giants Out Of Bidding For Yoshinobu Yamamoto

By Anthony Franco | December 21, 2023 at 9:06pm CDT

9:06pm: Yamamoto could make his decision within the next 48 hours, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

7:55pm: MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that Yamamoto has at least one offer of $300MM or more in hand.

6:59pm: The Giants have been informed they’re out of the running for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (X link). While there’s no indication that Yamamoto has made his final decision, Pavlovic adds the Giants expect he’ll sign with the Dodgers or one of the New York clubs.

Andy Martino of SNY tweets that the Mets have not received any indication they’re out of the running. That’s also true of the Yankees, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Heyman indicates the Yankees have put a “significant bid” on the table.

Crossing San Francisco off the list technically leaves six known finalists. In addition to the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, the Blue Jays, Phillies and Red Sox have been involved. Philadelphia has made an offer this week. That said, reports have cast the Phils, Jays, and (to a lesser extent) the Sox as longer shots.

Yamamoto has been weighing offers throughout the week. While he technically has until the evening of January 4 to sign, the expectation is that he won’t take things to the wire. That his camp is now in the process of whittling the field lends credence to the idea that a decision might not be far off.

The bidding seems as if it’ll surpass $250MM, before accounting for a posting fee owed to the Orix Buffaloes that could tack on another $45-50MM. That fee is in proportion to the contract size, calculated as 20% of the deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of additional spending. That reflects Yamamoto’s atypical youth for a free agent pitcher (25) and his sheer dominance in Japan. Named NPB’s best pitcher three years running, he’s coming off a 1.21 ERA while striking out nearly 27% of opponents in 164 innings.

It’s a tough blow for the Giants, who come up short on another top-tier free agent. The Giants have missed on pursuits of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner and Shohei Ohtani within the past two offseasons alone, while their deal with Carlos Correa fell through because of the physical. Yamamoto will join that list. San Francisco did land KBO star Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM pact — the largest deal of Farhan Zaidi’s tenure as baseball operations president — but they haven’t gotten a truly elite free agent in some time.

San Francisco still has plenty of spending capacity as they decide on their next steps. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $158MM. That’s about $30MM below this year’s Opening Day figure. From a luxury tax perspective, they’re almost $45MM south of the base threshold. That opens the possibility for a run at any of the top remaining free agent talents. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery headline the rotation class, while Matt Chapman was on the radar earlier in the offseason. So was the top available hitter, Cody Bellinger, although the Lee signing seems to rule out a pursuit of another lefty-swinging center fielder.

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Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets New York Yankees Newsstand San Francisco Giants Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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MLB Announces Modifications To Pitch Clock, Other Rule Changes

By Steve Adams | December 21, 2023 at 1:27pm CDT

1:27pm: In a statement, Major League Baseball Players Association executive director Tony Clark announced that the players on the Competition Committee voted against today’s slate of changes.

“This afternoon, Player Representatives voted against the 2024 rule changes proposed by the Commissioner’s Office,” the statement reads. “As they made clear in the Competition Committee, Players strongly feel that, following last season’s profound changes to the fundamental rules of the game, immediate additional changes are unnecessary and offer no meaningful benefits to fans, Players, or the competition on the field. This season should be used to gather additional data and fully examine the health, safety and injury impacts of reduced recovery time; that is where our focus will be.”

1:15pm: Major League Baseball announced a slate of modifications to the game’s official rules, which have been approved by the MLB Competition Committee (comprised of six owners, four players and one umpire). Per the league’s press release, the changes are as follows:

  • Runner’s Lane: The Runner’s Lane will be widened to include the dirt area between the foul line and the infield grass. Widening the lane allows batters to take a more direct path to first base while retaining protection from interference.  The distance between the foul line and the infield grass will be between 18 and 24 inches in all parks, with some limited grace periods granted by MLB due to difficulty in modifying the field (e.g., synthetic turf field).
  • Pace of Game: MLB proposed minor changes to the Pace of Game Regulations to address an increase in game time as the season progressed – the average nine-inning game time increased seven minutes from April to September (five minutes after controlling for the number pitches, breaks, and runs scored).
    • Timing Between Pitches: Reduce time from 20 seconds to 18 seconds with runners on base. Pitchers began their deliveries with an average of 7.3 seconds remaining on the 20-second timer in 2023. Pitchers retain the ability to step off and re-set the Clock up to two times without penalty. Violations with runners on base were the least frequent (14% of all violations vs 32% of all pitches) in 2023. A universal 17-second Clock used for the final month of the Triple-A season did not increase violations with runners on base.
    • Batter Timeouts: Based on player feedback, MLB withdrew a proposal that would have required the home plate umpire to immediately reset the Pitch Clock after a batter called timeout.
    • Pitching Changes: If a new pitcher steps onto the warning track with less than 2:00 remaining on the inning break Clock, the Clock will reset to 2:00 rather than 2:15 as was the case in 2023. Inning breaks that contained a pitching change averaged 2 minutes and 35 seconds in 2023 (broadcasters are only guaranteed two minutes of commercial time).
    • Mound Visits: Mound visits will be reduced from five per game to four, and an extra mound visit will still be awarded for the ninth inning if the defensive team has zero remaining at the end of the eighth inning. Mound visits rank among fans’ least favorite events in baseball. Clubs averaged only 2.3 mound visits per game in 2023. Last season, 98% of games would not have exceeded a limit of four mound visits.  Umpires will also permit defensive players to signal for a mound visit without actually visiting the mound to further help improve pace of game.
    • Circumvention: The FTC (field timing coordinator) will now restart the timer after a dead ball (e.g., foul ball) when the pitcher has the ball and play is ready to resume. There will no longer be a requirement for the pitcher to be on the mound, removing the pitcher’s ability to delay the start of the timer by walking around the edge of the mound.
    • Pitcher Who Warms Up Must Face At Least One Hitter: A pitcher who is sent out to warm up for an inning must face at least one batter (in addition to any requirements under the Three-Batter Minimum rule). There were 24 instances this season where the pitcher that warmed up between innings was replaced before throwing a pitch (adding approximately three minutes of dead time per event). There were two such instances during the 2023 World Series.

Runner’s lane photo courtesy of Major League Baseball communications department.

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Mets Acquire Adrian Houser, Tyrone Taylor From Brewers

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2023 at 11:58pm CDT

The Mets have acquired right-hander Adrian Houser and outfielder Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers for right-handed minor leaguer Coleman Crow, per announcements from both clubs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Houser and Taylor were going to the Mets for a minor leaguer. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that Crow would be that minor leaguer.

David Stearns is plenty familiar with Houser and Taylor, having spent many years calling the shots in Milwaukee before becoming president of baseball operations for the Mets a couple of months ago. In both cases, the player has had some major league success but had reached arbitration and was in competition for playing time in Milwaukee. Instead, they will head to a Mets club that has been primarily focused on depth moves this offseason, while allowing the Brewers to clear a bit of payroll.

Houser, 31 in February, has been a solid contributor for the Brewers in the past five seasons, mostly as a starter. From 2019 to the present, he’s appeared in 120 games, 97 of those being starts. In his 523 2/3 innings pitched, he has an earned run average of 4.04. His 19.2% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate aren’t especially strong but he’s kept 52.5% of balls in play on the ground.

He has just over five years of service time, meaning he’s slated for free agency after 2024. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $5.6MM next year. Houser might project as merely a back end starter with just one year of control, but that’s still a relative bargain compared to free agents. The Mets paid $13MM to get Luis Severino for one year, while other clubs have given out comparable deals. Jack Flaherty got $14MM, Kyle Gibson $13MM, Lance Lynn $11MM, Wade Miley $8.5MM and Martín Pérez $8MM.

In Milwaukee, Houser was slated to be behind Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Miley, battling pitchers like Colin Rea, Joe Ross, Janson Junk, Aaron Ashby and Robert Gasser for starts. But instead, he’ll jump to a somewhat similar spot with the Mets. His new club has Kodai Senga, José Quintana and Severino in three spots, with pitchers like Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto options for the back end. The club has been heavily linked to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and everyone would move down one spot if they successfully land him, but Houser should be in line for a role at the back of the rotation either way. He will have a leg up on Megill, Lucchesi and Butto in the sense that they can still be optioned to the minors but Houser cannot, as a player with more than five years of service time.

Taylor, 30 in January, seemed to establish himself as a viable big leaguer in 2021 and 2022. He got into 213 games for the Brewers over that stretch, hitting 29 home runs and slashing .239/.300/.448 for a wRC+ of 104. He also got strong grades for his outfield defense in all three spots and produced 3.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

But he dealt with an elbow sprain in Spring Training this year, which caused him to miss the first month of the season and then another month-plus in the middle of the year. He only got into 81 games and had diminished production when in the lineup, hitting .234/.267/.446 on the year.

He reached arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected to make $1.7MM, with two years of control beyond that. He was also going to be part of a crowded outfield mix in Milwaukee that includes Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins, Joey Wiemer and Chris Roller.

With the Mets, they have Brandon Nimmo in center but the corners are more questionable. Starling Marte was dealing with groin issues in 2023, missing roughly half the season and struggling when on the field. DJ Stewart finished the season on a hot streak at the plate but is a poor defender and better suited to be rotating through the designated hitter spot or pinch-hitting duties. Taylor’s righty bat could also potentially platoon with the lefty Stewart. Taylor has fairly neutral splits in his career but Stewart has been far better with the platoon advantage.

Crow, 23 later this month, was drafted by the Angels. He was traded to the Mets in the Eduardo Escobar deal in June but underwent Tommy John surgery in August, meaning he may miss most or all of the 2024 season. At the time of the Escobar trade, he was ranked the Angels’ #17 prospect at Baseball America and #8 at FanGraphs. He’s currently listed 25th in the Mets’ system at BA and 20th at FG. He tossed 128 Double-A innings in 2022 with a 4.85 ERA.

Aside from their pursuit of Yamamoto, the Mets have mostly been focused on adding depth this winter. They have claimed Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel off waivers. They have given one-year deals to Severino, Joey Wendle, Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams. They have also given minor league deals to Cole Sulser, Kyle Crick, José Iglesias, Taylor Kohlwey, Rylan Bannon, Trayce Thompson and Cam Robinson. Now they have bolstered their rotation and outfield with a couple of solid regulars.

For the Brewers, they are cutting a projected $7.3MM from their 2024 payroll. They are subtracting a bit of depth in the process but still have plenty of other options for their rotation and outfield even after this deal, while taking a flier on a long-term prospect in Crow.

Roster Resource currently pegs next year’s payroll at $104MM, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $119MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. There have been plenty of trade rumors this winter surrounding guys like Burns and Willy Adames, but it doesn’t appear as though the club needs to make a move of either of those guys just for payroll purposes, assuming they are willing to have a similar payroll to 2023.

As for the Mets, they are taking on that $7.1MM but could end up paying more. RR currently has their competitive balance tax number at $298MM, just above the fourth and highest threshold of $297MM. As a third time payor, their tax rates in each bracket are 50%, 62%, 95% and 110%. But the tax isn’t calculated until the end of the year. If the club isn’t competitive at the deadline and they trade some players with notable salaries, they could change their final position. Though signing Yamamoto for something in the $250-300MM range would obviously push them even further beyond their current level.

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Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty To One-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2023 at 1:05pm CDT

The Tigers announced that they have signed right-hander Jack Flaherty to a one-year, $14MM deal. He can also earn an extra $1MM in bonuses based on games started: $250K for 26 and 28 starts, then another $500K for 30. Flaherty is a client of CAA Sports.

Just 28 years old, Flaherty isn’t all that far removed from looking like one of the National League’s budding young aces. The former first-rounder was one of the sport’s top all-around prospects prior to making his big league debut, which came in 2017.

The following year saw the California native pitch to a sharp 3.34 earned run average through 151 big league innings, but Flaherty’s best work came, of all times, during the juiced-ball season in 2019. That year’s 2.75 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 1.15 HR/9 would be strong marks in any season but were especially impressive during the highest run-scoring environment since the steroid era. Two teams broke MLB’s single-season home run record that year, and yet while many pitchers throughout the league posted career-worst marks, Flaherty shined at his absolute brightest.

Unfortunately for both Flaherty and the Cardinals, that brilliant start to his career didn’t hold up. Injuries, primarily shoulder issues, conspired to limit Flaherty to just 154 1/3 innings over the next three seasons combined. During that time, he worked with slightly lesser velocity (93.9 mph) than his 94.5 mph peak, and his walk and home-run rates trended in the wrong direction. Overall, he posted a 3.90 earned run average but was limited to 32 starts (and another three bullpen outings).

The 2023 season for Flaherty was split between the Cardinals and the Orioles, who acquired him in a trade deadline deal sending lefty Drew Rom and prospects Cesar Prieto and Zack Showalter from Baltimore back to St. Louis. It was a mixed bag of a season for the righty. On the one hand, Flaherty’s 27 starts and 144 1/3 innings clearly made for his healthiest season since that brilliant ’19 effort. On the other, his 4.99 ERA was a career-worst (outside of a 21-inning sample as a rookie in 2017). His 22.8% strikeout rate was about average, but Flaherty’s 10.6% walk rate was elevated and his 93.2 mph average heater was down even further.

Despite the poor 2023 showing, Flaherty drew interest from at least the Pirates, Royals and Tigers — though his market surely included other suitors. There’s good sense in taking a flier on Flaherty, given his age, former prospect pedigree and the heights he reached earlier in his career.

As we noted on our Top 50 Free Agent Rankings, while we predicted a three-year pact for the righty — presuming a team would extend a multi-year pact in hopes of acquiring a below-market bargain — a straight one-year pillow deal always figured to be on the table. With strong results this year Flaherty can return to the market as a 29-year-old in position for a much more lucrative deal. The downside, of course, is that with another lackluster performance, Flaherty could well hit the market with considerably less earning power and no interest on multi-year contracts. Despite that potential, he’ll bet on himself with the more traditional approach and hope to cash in a year from now.

Should things play out that way, it’ll be to the benefit of the Tigers, who’ll not only have the opportunity to help Flaherty return to something resembling his peak levels but — if things play out that way — extend a qualifying offer to the righty. There’s a long way to go before that scenario is in play, but Flaherty’s early-career performance shows that he clearly has the talent to merit that type of offer when he’s at his best.

Flaherty becomes the second free-agent addition to what will be a dramatically different Tigers rotation than the one we saw in 2023. Gone is veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who opted out of the three years and $49MM on his contract and scored a four-year, $80MM deal with the NL champion D-backs. Flaherty and righty Kenta Maeda, fresh off an excellent finish to his ’23 campaign with the division-rival Twins, will take up the mantle of veteran rotation leaders for skipper AJ Hinch.

Not only will the Tigers have that newly signed pair of arms, they’ll also welcome 2018 No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize back into the fold after a season lost to Tommy John surgery. Standout lefty Tarik Skubal returns as the team’s top starter, and the quartet of Skubal, Flaherty, Maeda and Mize will be joined by some combination of Reese Olson, Matt Manning and Sawyer Gipson-Long. Olson, in particular, had a solid rookie campaign. Manning, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick and top prospect himself — one who’ll be looking for better luck in 2024. In astonishing fashion, Manning suffered a broken left foot on two different occasions, both upon being struck by a comeback liner (once in April and again in September).

With Flaherty’s $14MM salary added to the books, the Tigers’ payroll projection climbs north of $104MM. That’s still quite a ways down from last year’s $135MM Opening Day mark — due in no small part to Miguel Cabrera’s retirement — and nowhere close to the franchise-record $200MM mark. The Tigers will surely want to leave ample playing time for young, potential core pieces like Mize, Skubal, Manning, Olson, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and prospects Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy. But there’s still enough payroll space for the team to make some further additions, perhaps in the bullpen or on the bench.

Trevor Plouffe of Jomboy first connected the two sides. Jeff Passan of ESPN first relayed the contract specifics.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Transactions Jack Flaherty

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Corbin Burnes Downplays Possibility Of Signing Extension

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2023 at 10:22am CDT

Heading into the offseason, the trade market contained a handful of veteran starters who were a year from free agency and widely expected to be available — Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber and perhaps Corbin Burnes chief among them. Glasnow has already changed hands, going from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles and signing an extension — which the two parties agreed upon as a contingency of the trade becoming official. Bieber is still with the Guardians. But as earlier this month, like Glasnow, he was reportedly open to discussing a long-term deal following a trade.

Fans of rival clubs may be eyeing Burnes and envisioning a similar outcome, but the right-hander himself effectively quashed any such hopes in an appearance with Erik Kratz, A.J. Pierzynski and Hannah Keyser on Foul Territory (video link). Asked by Kratz about the possibility of taking the same path Glasnow did, Burnes replied:

“Being in my shoes, being a year away from [free agency], I think if a trade-and-extension type of deal came up — obviously, every guy that gets this close to free agency wants to test the market to see what your true dollar amount is, see what teams really are in on you. It would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market and being able to choose where you want to go. I think that’s one thing every player in their career wants to get to. Once you get that six years of service time — which for a lot of guys takes seven, eight, sometimes nine years to get to — you get that chance to test the market and see what your top dollar is.”

Burnes, of course, is speaking in generalities. The majority of players ostensibly share his sentiment, but Glasnow has now twice signed an extension in lieu of reaching free agency, and we’ve seen plenty of players over the years hammer out a long-term deal when they’re less than a calendar year from reaching the market. It’s rarer, although hardly unprecedented, with an expected top-of-the-market free agent. Rafael Devers, Stephen Strasburg and Xander Bogaerts are just a few examples of prominent, All-Star-caliber talents signing an extension after reaching five years of big league service.

Still, Burnes’ comments seemingly align with most star-level players and shouldn’t be taken as a surprise. That’s particularly true given that he’s a client of the Boras Corporation, whose players tend to gravitate toward free agency. (Although, again, that’s a generality and perhaps even an overstated one; Strasburg, Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Carlos Gonzalez and others have all signed extensions under Boras.)

In his latest notes column at The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal reports that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio is still uncertain about how to proceed with Burnes and is wary of creating a similar backlash to the 2022 trade deadline deal that sent Josh Hader to San Diego. That doesn’t preclude a trade from ultimately coming together, but it’s a starkly different tone from the circumstances surrounding Glasnow, where a trade felt like an inevitability as the offseason wore on.

If the Brewers opt to hold onto Burnes, they can head into the 2024 season with him, Freddy Peralta, the recently re-signed Wade Miley and Adrian Houser in the top four spots of the rotation. Colin Rea, free-agent signee Joe Ross and prospect Robert Gasser (acquired in the aforementioned Hader deal) are among the other in-house candidates for rotation spots, and further additions via free agency or trade can’t be squarely ruled out. The lineup would need clear augmentation, but Milwaukee’s pitching would again have the makings of a solid group with Burnes and Peralta leading the rotation and Devin Williams anchoring the bullpen.

Should Milwaukee hold onto Burnes and fail to contend even in a thin National League Central division, Burnes would obviously hold immense appeal at the trade deadline. And, if they ride out the year with Burnes atop a contending rotation, they could at least extend a qualifying offer and recoup a draft pick after the first round in 2025. It’s a relatively small consolation prize for a former Cy Young winner, but that compensation still factors in when listening to any trade offers that come their way.

Holding onto any impending free agent/trade candidate comes with the risk of said player incurring an injury that tanks their value. Burnes, however, is so talented that anything short of a major surgery that would jeopardize his 2025 availability makes a QO a no-brainer. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched 622 1/3 innings with aa 2.86 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. Burnes has made three consecutive All-Star teams and won the National League Cy Young Award in 2021. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $15.1MM in 2024 before he becomes a free agent next winter.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Corbin Burnes

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Pirates Re-Sign Andrew McCutchen

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2023 at 8:44am CDT

Andrew McCutchen said multiple times throughout the 2023 season that he didn’t intend to play anywhere other than Pittsburgh for the remainder of his career, and that’s exactly where he’ll be in 2024. The Pirates announced Wednesday that they’ve re-signed the franchise icon to a one-year deal contract for the upcoming season. McCutchen, a client of Aegis Sports Management, will reportedly be guaranteed $5MM. A corresponding move will be announced “at a later time,” the team said in this morning’s press release.

It’s a reunion that has long been expected, given not only McCutchen’s vocal stance on the matter but also comments from general manager Ben Cherington indicating the Pirates wanted McCutchen back and planned to discuss a new contract in the offseason. Since Cutch suffered a partial tear of his Achilles in September, the club appeared to want to see how his rehab progressed before making things official, but reporting from last week suggested the two sides were starting to accelerate talks.

McCutchen, 37, isn’t the MVP-caliber performer from earlier in his career but can still swing it. He signed a one-year, $5MM deal to rejoin the Pirates for 2023, hitting 12 home runs and drawing walks in 15.9% of his plate appearances. His .256/.378/.397 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 115, indicating he was 15% better than the league average hitter overall. He also still flashed a bit of baserunning prowess, stealing 11 bags in 14 tries.

Defensively, he was almost exclusively a designated hitter, spending just 64 2/3 innings in right field. He is likely to be in a similar role this year, having returned via the same $5MM deal that he signed a year ago. The Pirates will likely be delighted with a comparable performance but are surely also signing McCutchen for leadership and veteran presence, as well as being a treat for fans. Jack Suwinski and Bryan Reynolds will likely have two everyday spots in the outfield locked down. Edward Olivares, Joshua Palacios, Connor Joe and others should be battling for playing time in one corner, though McCutchen will perhaps jog out to the grass from time to time.

The season-ending injury forced McCutchen to miss the last few weeks of the 2023 campaign, with his last appearance coming on September 4. That kept him from hitting his 300th career home run during the campaign, as he’s currently parked on 299. But he should have plenty of opportunities to hit that milestone next year, which will appropriately come in a Pirates’ uniform. From 2009 to 2017, McCutchen was a five-time All-Star, won a Gold Glove in 2012 and National League MVP in 2013.

The heyday of McCutchen coincided with the club’s last competitive window. They made the playoffs in three straight years from 2013 to 2015 but haven’t been back since. The 2023 campaign featured an encouraging record of 76-86, still below .500 but their best finish since 2018. If the club’s young core is able to take a step forward and return to the postseason, then McCutchen could be a nice throughline connecting the two eras of baseball in Pittsburgh.

Roster Resource now pegs the club’s 2024 payroll at $70MM, just a bit below last year’s Opening Day figure of $73MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. General manager Ben Cherington has suggested that the payroll could push upwards next year, though it’s unclear exactly how far they are willing to go. In the post from Mackey linked above, he hints that the club may be making an addition to its pitching staff soon, likely via trade.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and the terms.

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Andrew McCutchen

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Dodgers Acquire Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot; Glasnow Signed To Contract Extension

By Mark Polishuk | December 19, 2023 at 2:45pm CDT

December 19: Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, the extension is actually valued at $111,562,500 over four years, with Glasnow to make $30MM from 2025 to 2027. The player option in 2028 is valued at $21,562,500, slightly higher than previous reporting. Heyman’s framing also suggests that Glasnow will choose on his option first. If he turns it down, then the Dodgers will get to decide whether or not to trigger a $30MM club option.

December 16, 3:33pm: USAToday’s Bob Nightengale relays the full contract breakdown for Glasnow, reporting that the 2028 player option is worth $21.5MM. This accounts for the previously unexplained $1.5MM discrepancy between the reported contract breakdown and the Dodgers’ announced $136.5MM figure.

12:08pm: The Dodgers and Rays finalized the four-player trade that will sent right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot, and $4MM in cash considerations to Los Angeles in exchange for right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca.  News of the trade first broke a few days ago, with the final hurdle being the Dodgers’ ability to sign Glasnow to a contract extension.  That deal has now also been completed, with L.A. announcing that Glasnow has agreed to a new long-term pact worth $136.5MM.  Glasnow is represented by Wasserman.

As per the terms reported yesterday by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the new contract will see Glasnow earn $110MM in new money over the course of the 2025-28 seasons.  Glasnow was already slated to earn $25MM in 2024 according to the terms of his prior contract with the Rays, and the new deal with L.A. breaks down as $90MM in salary over the 2025-27 seasons, and then the Dodgers hold a $30MM club option on Glasnow’s services for 2028.  If the team declines that option, Glasnow can exercise a $20MM player option for 2028.  Since Passan’s numbers only add up to $135MM rather than the Dodgers’ announced figure of $136.5MM, that extra $1.5MM has yet to be accounted for, possibly a signing bonus or a bit of extra guaranteed money on one of the years.

Unlike Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM mega-deal with the Dodgers from last week, Glasnow’s extension doesn’t contain any deferred money.  As such, it will be entirely portioned out onto the Dodgers’ luxury tax bills based on a $27.3MM average annual value over the next five seasons.  According to Roster Resource’s calculations, Los Angeles has an estimated luxury tax number of roughly $253.7MM for 202 — still under the $257MM secondary CBT tier, thanks to all of Ohtani’s deferrals lowering his tax-related AAV to $46MM per season.  Still, with a number of roster needs still be addressed, the Dodgers’ tax bill could certainly still approach or exceed the next penalty tier of $277MM between now and Opening Day.

Glasnow has been seen as a possible trade candidate basically since the moment he inked his previous two-year, $30.35MM extension with Tampa Bay during the 2022 season.  Signed when Glasnow was recovering from Tommy John surgery, the deal saw $25MM of the salary backloaded into the 2024 season, making it likely that the cost-conscious Rays would try to unload the right-hander beforehand.

The 30-year-old’s availability dovetailed with the Dodgers’ need for pitching this winter, as the Los Angeles rotation is full of injury-related question marks (i.e. Walker Buehler, and possibly Dustin May at midseason), pitchers without much big league experience (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone), and a swingman in Ryan Yarbrough who may be best suited for bullpen duty.  Pepiot was another member of that young crop of arms, but he’ll now head to Tampa Bay as he enters his third season of MLB duty.

In moving Glasnow and Margot and factoring in the $4MM in cash considerations, the Rays unloaded $33MM worth of salary for two players making the Major League minimum, in a move reminiscent of many budget-trimming, sell-high types of trades Tampa has become known for over the years.  The Rays’ success rate in these deals is almost a cliche by this point, and even if Tampa Bay fans have become weary of the team’s continual roster churn and perpetually low-spending ways, the Rays’ ability to field competitive teams speaks for itself.  Pepiot figures to step right into the rotation spot left open by Glasnow, while Deluca may not be guaranteed a spot in the Opening Day outfield, but he’ll at least be part of the shuttle heading back and forth between Triple-A since the outfielder has two minor league option years remaining.

The right-handed hitting Margot figures to move into a part-time role in the Dodgers’ outfield picture, acting as a complement to the left-handed James Outman and Jason Heyward.  Margot has played primarily as a center fielder and right fielder, thus lining up well with Outman and Heyward’s projected positions.  Mookie Betts will be taking over as the Dodgers’ new everyday second baseman in 2024, so it’s safe to guess that L.A. will aim to add more outfield depth if Betts will be spending most of his time on the dirt.

MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams broke down the Glasnow extension in larger detail yesterday, while Darragh McDonald outlined the news of the four-player trade agreement for MLBTR on Thursday.  Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest first reported the four principal players in the trade.  Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on the extension.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the Rays’ inclusion of the $4MM in salary offset.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Jonny DeLuca Manuel Margot Ryan Pepiot Tyler Glasnow

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