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Clayton Kershaw Undecided On Future

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The Dodgers season came to an unceremonious close last night. After being swept in the NL Division Series by the Diamondbacks, they’re headed into the offseason.

Each fall brings questions about whether Clayton Kershaw will be back for another year. Unsurprisingly, the three-time Cy Young winner wasn’t prepared to answer within the first couple hours of his team’s elimination. Kershaw told the L.A. beat postgame that he’s “not sure” what his playing future holds (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

Kershaw expanded upon that in a conversation with Andy McCullough of the Athletic, saying he expected to take several weeks before making a decision. Last year, he told reporters in late September that he was leaning towards playing in 2023. He agreed to a new deal with the Dodgers by November 10. Kershaw suggested to McCullough he won’t make his decision as quickly this time around.

Part of the calculus is his arm health. The 10-time All-Star landed on the injured list with shoulder soreness on July 3. He was out for around five weeks. While the Dodgers reinstated Kershaw on August 10, team officials conceded he still didn’t feel close to 100%. The southpaw told McCullough he could go for additional examination on the shoulder this offseason.

Kershaw had another stellar regular season despite the injury. He worked to a 2.46 ERA across 131 2/3 innings, striking out a strong 26.2% of opponents. Kershaw’s 7.6% walk rate was his highest in over a decade but still slightly better than league average. While his strikeout and walk numbers took a step back following his return from the injured list, he worked to a 2.23 ERA in his last eight regular season starts.

That production belied a notable downtick in the quality of his raw arsenal. Kershaw’s average fastball speed was a little above 91 MPH through the season’s first three months. His fastball sat at 90.2 MPH in August and was down to just 88.6 MPH on average in the final month. The slider was similarly slow, dropping from the 86-87 MPH range to 84.7 MPH in September.

The diminished arsenal caught up to him in October. The Dodgers’ flimsy rotation left them with little choice but to give Kershaw the ball for one of the first two starts against Arizona. He took the Dodger Stadium mound in Game 1 and was blitzed for six runs on six hits and a walk while recording just one out in an eventual 11-2 loss. The rest of the rotation didn’t fare much better. Bobby Miller surrendered three runs and didn’t get past the second inning in Game 2; Lance Lynn was tagged for four home runs in the third inning to take a 4-2 loss last night.

Addressing the starting staff will be a key priority for the L.A. front office. Julio Urías looks very unlikely to return amidst a domestic violence investigation. Tony Gonsolin could miss the whole year after a Tommy John procedure in August. Dustin May will be out until the middle of the season following flexor surgery. Lynn seems headed for free agency once the Dodgers decline an $18MM club option.

Walker Buehler should be ready to join Miller in two spots. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot could vie for jobs, while Gavin Stone and Michael Grove are beyond them on the depth chart. There’s still promise with the group but they’ll need to add quite a bit more stability. If Kershaw decides to return for a 17th major league season, the Dodgers would certainly welcome him back on another one-year deal.

Kershaw signed a $20MM pact last winter. A similar salary would make sense if he continues playing. While the Dodgers could technically put forth a qualifying offer in the $20.5MM range, it’s hard to see that happening. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters two offseasons ago the organization declined to qualify Kershaw to afford him more than 10 days to make a decision on his future. There’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case this fall.

Kyle Wright To Undergo Shoulder Surgery, Will Miss 2024 Season

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Kyle Wright has battled shoulder problems all season, resulting in the Braves placing the righty on the 60-day injured list just prior to the start of their playoff run.  Wright will miss all of the postseason, and unfortunately now all of the 2024 season as well, since manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that Wright will undergo surgery to correct the problem.

Wright’s shoulder injuries started in Spring Training and resulted in a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL.  He made five starts before being forced back to the IL for ended up being more than a four-month layoff.  Returning to the Braves’ rotation in September, Wright pitched in four games — two as a starter, then two more as a reliever.  With the playoffs looming, Wright was being positioned for a role in Atlanta’s bullpen during the postseason, which he was happy to do in order to help the team win.  However, an MRI on Friday revealed more shoulder damage, and surgery now looks like a necessity to correct the problem once and for all.

The injury will essentially cost Wright two years of his career, as he’ll wrap his 2023 campaign with only 31 innings pitched.  It’s a brutal outcome for the 28-year-old, especially after it looked like he had finally established himself as a viable big league starter in 2022.

The fifth overall pick of the 2017 draft, Wright took a quick route to the big leagues and made his MLB debut in September 2018.  Through the 2018-21 seasons, Wright only pitched 70 Major League innings over 21 appearances (14 of them starts), posting a 6.56 ERA and simply not pitching well enough to stick in the rotation or even on the active roster.  The silver lining was a championship ring in 2021, as though he made only two appearances in the regular season, he landed a spot on the World Series roster and delivered a 1.59 ERA in 5 2/3 innings of relief work.

This set the stage for Wright’s breakout.  He posted a 3.19 ERA over 180 1/3 innings in 2022, leading the majors in wins with a 21-5 record.  Though he allowed a lot of hard contact and his walk and strikeout rates were only slightly above the league average, Wright’s 3.48 SIERA wasn’t much higher than his real-world ERA, and his 55.6% grounder rate only got a bit of batted-ball luck in the form of a .284 BABIP.

Wright’s 2023 numbers were basically a wash, as he had a 6.97 ERA over his 31 frames.  With this recent performance weighing more heavily than his 2022 season, Wright was projected to earn $1.4MM in 2024, his first year of arbitration eligibility.  Missing the 2024 season entirely would mean that Wright’s 2025 salary will either match or be fractionally beyond that $1.4MM figure, so even if he returns healthy and productive in 2025, he’d get a bump up to maybe something in the $4MM range for 2026.

In short, the shoulder injury has cost Wright millions of dollars, as he would’ve locked in some increasingly large salaries through his arb years if he’d kept pitching anything like his 2022 self.  Given the Braves’ penchant for extending their in-house players, a solid 2023 season might’ve been enough evidence to convince the front office to lock in a multi-year agreement with Wright, giving him an even bigger payday.

The one possible upside to these limited salaries is that Wright is still making so relatively little that the Braves will still tender him a contract, allowing Wright to rehab and then hopefully bounce back in good form by Opening Day 2025.  But obviously, losing Wright for a year has an impact on the Braves’ long-term pitching plans as well.

Spencer Strider is locked up on an extension through at least the 2028 season, making him the cornerstone of Atlanta’s rotation for the rest of the decade.  Beyond Strider, Max Fried is a free agent after the 2024 season, and 39-year-old Charlie Morton could potentially retire after this season.  Bryce Elder pitched generally well this year, though his numbers regressed significantly after a great first three months.  Rookies Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, Allan Winans, and AJ Smith-Shawver all made their big league debuts in 2023, but Smith-Shawver is the only one of the group who pitched decently well.  Michael Soroka didn’t pitch particularly well over 32 1/3 innings in his comeback season and was shut down in September due to forearm inflammation.  As for other injured starters, Kolby Allard only threw 12 1/3 innings due to oblique and shoulder nerve inflammation,and Huascar Ynoa missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It’s a lot of depth but not necessarily a lot of proven quality, though getting by with a so-so-rotation might be okay for a Braves team with such a spectacular offense.  Going into 2024, Strider, Fried, and Elder seemingly have rotation spots locked, and if Morton returns, that’s still a solid top four.  Top prospect Hurston Waldrep might also be on the roster as early as Opening Day, so it’s possible Wright might’ve had a hard time getting back into the rotation (or even beating out the many other arms for the unofficial sixth starter job) even if he’d avoided surgery.  Many things could still shake out by the time Wright is ready in 2025, particularly if Fried did leave and if Morton did decide to finally hang up his glove.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2024

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.  Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (7)

Athletics (6)

Blue Jays (13)

Braves (13)

Brewers (12)

Cardinals (10)

Cubs (9)

Diamondbacks (8)

Dodgers (13)

Giants (6)

Guardians (10)

Marlins (13)

Mariners (8)

Mets (17)

Nationals (8)

Orioles (16)

Padres (6)

Phillies (8)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (10)

Rays (16)

Red Sox (5)

Reds (10)

Rockies (7)

Royals (8)

Tigers (8)

Twins (9)

White Sox (8)

Yankees (17)

Sandy Alcantara Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Marlins star Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery, he announced on Instagram. The procedure, performed by Dr. Keith Meister, occurred this morning. He’ll miss the entire 2024 season.

“With a heavy heart, I want to let everyone know I had Tommy John surgery today and will miss next season,” the 2022 NL Cy Young winner wrote as part of a statement. “I am most saddened for the great Marlins fans, who were so supportive of me and the team this year. The drive to the playoffs was thrilling for all of us.”

While the Marlins hadn’t indicated that surgery was on the table, it’s not an especially surprising development. Alcantara’s season was cut short last month. He landed on the injured list on September 6 with what the team initially diagnosed as a flexor strain. That was later revised to a UCL sprain, indicating some measure of tearing within the elbow ligament. With the Fish making a playoff push, Alcantara tried to return at season’s end. He threw four innings in a Triple-A rehab outing but reported additional forearm discomfort coming out of that appearance. Miami shut him down at that point.

The Fish were able to get into the postseason even without Alcantara contributing in the last few weeks. After being swept in the Wild Card round by the Phillies, they’ll go into the offseason looking for ways to build off this year’s promise. That’ll be quite a bit more difficult without one of the sport’s preeminent workhorses.

No pitcher has thrown more innings than Alcantara’s 619 over the last three seasons. Only Gerrit Cole has taken a heavier workload going back to the start of 2019. Alcantara handily leads the majors in complete games over the last three years, finishing off 10 starts. No other pitcher has gone the distance more than six times.

The two-time All-Star combines that MLB-best volume with outstanding rate production. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA every year from 2019-22, highlighted by a sterling 2.28 earned runs allowed per nine last season. He was unanimously voted the Senior Circuit’s top pitcher. Alcantara wasn’t as dominant this year, though he turned in another effective season overall. In 28 starts, he worked to a 4.14 ERA behind a 52% grounder rate while averaging over six and a half innings per appearance.

At this time last year, the Marlins had an embarrassment of riches on the mound. That contributed to their decision to deal Pablo López for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster. Miami has to be thrilled with what they received from Arraez in his first season in South Florida. While they still have a good rotation, its depth has taken some notable hits.

Trevor Rogers made just four starts, none after April, because of a left biceps strain and a partial tear in his right (non-throwing) lat muscle. Prospect Jake Eder was dealt midseason for third baseman Jake Burger. Hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera walked over 15% of major league opponents and was demoted to Triple-A for a month midseason. He managed a 4.24 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout percentage. Miami’s starting staff ranked 9th in the majors in ERA (4.10), an effective yet hardly dominant result.

Left-handers Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett each topped 30 starts with sub-4.00 ERA showings. Top prospect Eury Pérez worked to a 3.15 ERA while striking out nearly 29% of batters faced in 19 outings as a rookie. They project as the top three in next year’s staff, likely followed by Cabrera and Rogers. Former #3 overall pick Max Meyer should be ready for Spring Training after missing all of this year working back from Tommy John surgery of his own.

There’s significant ceiling in that group, but only Luzardo and Garrett have shouldered a full big league workload within the last two seasons. The club could be cautious with innings counts for any of Pérez, Rogers or Meyer. Ryan Weathers and Bryan Hoeing currently stand as the top depth options.

It seems likely Miami will bring in a veteran arm to add some stability to the group. They hoped that last winter’s signing of Johnny Cueto to an $8.5MM free agent deal would lock in serviceable back-of-the-rotation innings. Cueto didn’t meet expectations and is headed back to the open market. GM Kim Ng and her staff could look for a similar addition this time around.

Alcantara will count against the 40-man roster throughout the offseason. Miami can place him on the 60-day injured list at the beginning of Spring Training. As part of the extension he signed in November 2021, he’ll make $9MM next season. Alcantara is under contract for $17MM annually between 2025-26. Miami has a $21MM option or a $2MM buyout for the ’27 season.

Billy Eppler Steps Down As Mets’ General Manager

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6:10PM: Eppler resigned to avoid being a distraction to the club during an ongoing MLB investigation into Eppler and the Mets allegedly making improper use of the injured list, as per a report from the New York Post.  (Link to our full post on this story.)

3:23PM: Mets general manager Billy Eppler has resigned from his position, according to a press release from the team.  Mets owner Steve Cohen said that Eppler “led this team through a 101-win season and postseason berth last year and he will be missed.  We accepted Billy’s resignation today as he decided it is in everyone’s best interest to fully hand over the leadership of Baseball Operations to David Stearns. On behalf of the Mets organization, we wish him all the best.”

Eppler himself issued a comment in the release, saying “I wanted David to have a clean slate and that meant me stepping down.  I hope for nothing but the best for the entire Mets organization.”

Given how Stearns’ first few weeks have seen the Mets cut ties with manager Buck Showalter and make some other personnel changes within the front office, it doesn’t seem shocking on paper that Eppler is also on the way out.  That said, Eppler had been expected to continue as GM and serve as Stearns’ top lieutenant, making today’s news “a major surprise” in the view of SNY’s Andy Martino.  Two full years remained on the original four-year contract Eppler signed with the Mets in November 2021.

The Amazins brought Eppler into the fold with the hopes of stabilizing a front office that had become a revolving door.  Sandy Alderson stepped away from the GM position in July 2018 due to a battle with cancer, with John Ricco, J.P. Ricciardi, Omar Minaya handling matters on an interim basis until Brodie Van Wagenen was hired a few months later as the new general manager.  Van Wagenen’s tenure lasted for a little more than two years (until Cohen bought the team), and incoming GM Jared Porter lasted only six weeks before being being fired due to reports of a past incident of sexual harassment.  Zack Scott then became interim GM but lasted less than a year, as a DWI charge led the Mets to ultimately part ways.

Even with the lockout interrupting much of the 2021-22 offseason, the Mets still spent big both before and after the transactions freeze, with some of Eppler’s biggest strikes happening in the few weeks between his hiring and the early-December shutdown.  That winter saw the Mets bring Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, and Chris Bassitt into the fold, while also hiring Showalter as the new manager.  The result was a 101-61 record, the second-highest win total in the Mets’ franchise history.  However, New York still had to settle for a wild card slot after losing the NL East crown to the Braves on a tiebreaker, and the Mets’ playoff run quickly ended with a three-game loss to the Padres in the NL Wild Card Series.

With Cohen sparing no expense on player payroll, Eppler kept the big moves coming last winter, bringing both new faces (Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and more) to Queens on pricey free agent deals, re-signing Mets staples Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, and even extending other regulars like Jeff McNeil.  The result was an Opening Day payroll of over $330MM — far and away the biggest in baseball history, with a record luxury tax hit to match.

Unfortunately for the Mets and their fans, the large payroll meant an equally large disappointment when the team simply failed to get on track.  With injuries playing a factor, New York finished only 75-87, resulting in a midseason pivot that saw Scherzer, Verlander, Canha, Escobar, Tommy Pham, Dominic Leone, and David Robertson all dealt, primarily to add some new young talent to the organization since the Mets ate most of the remaining salary involved in these trades.

“One of the goals here is to expedite the longer-term goal.  We’re trying to restock and reload the farm system,” Eppler told reporters at the trade deadline.  “You have to go through a little pain to get where we want to go, but I feel like the organization is making strides towards a better future…..Going into 2024 we don’t see ourselves having the same odds that we did in 2022 and 2023, but we will field a competitive team.”

It remains to be seen how the Mets could operate under Stearns, and whether their plan to take some level of a step back next season will impact how they spend, or how they acquire talent.  Whatever the outcome, Eppler won’t be part of the plan going forward, so hiring a new general manager as Stearns’ number two will now also be on the Mets’ to-do list.

Only 48 years old, Eppler already has a lengthy resume in baseball.  Beginning as a scout in the Rockies organization, he moved on to a decade-long run in the Yankees’ front office that saw Eppler promoted first to scouting director and then to assistant GM under Brian Cashman.  The Angels hired Eppler as their general manager heading into the 2016 season, but was fired in September 2020 after the team failed to post a winning record in any of Eppler’s five seasons in charge.  He then briefly explored a new career path running WME’s baseball representation division, but was only in that job for a few months before stepping down to take the Mets’ GM job.

Eppler’s seven seasons as a general manager saw his teams deliver a 508-523 record, with only the 2021 Mets finishing above the .500 mark.  Despite the lack of results, it is still difficult to truly evaluate Eppler as an executive given the circumstances of both his jobs.  Angels owner Arte Moreno is known to carry a heavy influence over his front office’s decisions, and the Halos’ string of losing seasons has continued even after Eppler’s departure.  Eppler had more autonomy in New York, though Cohen’s desire to instantly make the Mets into a contender with no regard to payroll created its own set of unique pressures.  Eppler also had to combat the perception (and perhaps even the reality) that was something of a placeholder GM, only brought in once the previous choices were fired in quick succession, and with Cohen ultimately always intending to hire Stearns or a bigger-name executive like Theo Epstein or Billy Beane.

While Eppler’s resignation appears to have caught the Mets somewhat off-guard, there may no ulterior motive beyond what Eppler expressed in his own statement.  Having the former front office boss still in the organization as the second-in-command is an unusual situation, and it could be that Eppler had a change of heart after his first few weeks working under Stearns.  Resigning now gives Eppler a jump on the offseason, perhaps for a fresh start with another club or for a job outside of front office work, given his past association with WME.

MLB Investigating Mets, Billy Eppler On Allegations Of Improper Injured-List Usage

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Major League Baseball has a probe looking into allegations that the Mets made improper use of the injured list, according to Mike Puma, Joel Sherman, Jon Heyman, and Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post.  The exact nature of the investigation and the specific allegations or players involved aren’t yet known at this time.  Former Mets GM Billy Eppler (who stepped down from the job earlier today) is cooperating with the investigation, though he has yet to formally speak with league officials.

Eppler’s resignation was seen by many as a surprise, since by all appearances, he was fully ready to act as the front office’s new number two behind president of baseball operations David Stearns.  As per the Post’s report, the league’s probe was the reason for Eppler’s departure, as he informed Mets upper management that he didn’t want to be a distraction to the club.

More will be known once more details of the league’s investigation surface, or when MLB announces (if any) its final findings.  On the surface, improper uses of the injured list would simply seem to suggest that the Mets placed a player or players on the 10-day, 15-day or 60-day IL when they weren’t actually hurt, thus allowing the club to add a new player to the 26-man or 40-man rosters.

These kinds of “phantom IL” transactions have existed within the game for decades.  A team might send a struggling player to the injured list with a harder-to-define issue like arm soreness or a bad back, when in reality the player is just getting a mental and physical break to reset.  Every club in baseball has made such a move at some point, and in some cases, players have openly admitted that they aren’t actually hurt.

While this practice is technically illegal, it is also relatively widespread enough that it is rare to see MLB launch an official investigation into improper IL usage.  That might suggest that the Mets’ alleged violation is particularly egregious, or (speculatively) that the league might have given the club an initial warning, and are now proceeding with a probe because Eppler’s front office didn’t stop.

Whatever the details, it amounts to “another embarrassing exit for a Mets official,” in the words of the New York Post’s writers.  Within the last five years, former Mets GM Jared Porter and former manager Mickey Callaway were each accused of sexual harassment, with the Mets firing Porter and MLB putting Callaway (who had moved on from the Mets to work as the Angels’ pitching coach) on the ineligible list.  As well, interim GM Zack Scott was fired when he was arrested on DWI charges, and ex-manager Carlos Beltran was fired due to his part in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, before Beltran had even officially managed a single game.

Improper IL placements aren’t nearly as serious as some of those off-the-field concerns, of course, but it is possible Eppler or the Mets might face some kind of penalty (suspensions, fines, etc.) as a result of the league’s investigation.  The MLB Players Association might also have an issue, if the situation involves service time or perhaps just a player gaining an “injury-prone” reputation when none was warranted.

Diamondbacks Extend GM Mike Hazen

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The Diamondbacks and GM Mike Hazen have agreed to a new contract extension, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  Hazen is now under contract through the 2028 season, and the D’Backs hold a club option on his services for 2029.  In addition to extending Hazen, Piecoro reports (via X) that assistant GMs Amiel Sawdaye and Mike Fitzgerald also got new contracts.

Club president/CEO Derrick Hall said a couple of weeks ago that the D’Backs had spoken with Hazen about a new deal, so today’s news isn’t particularly surprising.  Hazen’s previous contract ran through 2024 with a club option for 2025, so technically, there wasn’t any overt urgency for Arizona to work out an extension this quickly.  However, given that the Red Sox also reportedly had some interest in speaking with Hazen (who formerly worked with Boston and hails from Massachusetts) about their own front office vacancy, that might’ve also spurred Arizona to act sooner than later in locking Hazen up for the rest of the decade.

Hazen took over Arizona’s front office following the 2016 season, and immediately ended a string of three losing seasons by taking the Diamondbacks to a wild card berth in 2017.  Two more winning (though non-playoff) seasons followed, as Hazen attempted the tricky task of retooling the D’Backs roster and reducing payroll while also keeping the team competitive.  The trade of Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals in December 2018 was the best example of how Hazen tried to better position the Diamondbacks for future, even if it meant making the call to part ways with a homegrown superstar.

The difficulties of Hazen’s strategy manifested themselves with three straight losing seasons from 2020-22, with the nadir of a 110-loss campaign in 2021.  Still, Hazen resisted the urge to tear the roster down entirely, and to some extent doubled down by signing such notables as Ketel Marte and Merrill Kelly to extensions rather than trading either player for younger talent.  As it happened, Arizona was still able to add quite a bit of younger talent anyway in other transactions and through the draft, to the point that the Diamondbacks now have one of the higher-ranked minor league systems in baseball.

This three-year period also brought infinitely more pain to Hazen off the field, as his wife Nicole was diagnosed with brain cancer in May 2020 and passed away in August 2022.  The Washington Post’s Zach Buchanan recently wrote about the Hazen family’s strength and struggles during this time, and the GM took a temporarily physical leave of absence from the Diamondbacks in 2021.  Upon Nicole’s passing, Hazen considered leaving his job altogether, but his four sons unanimously encouraged their father to continue as general manager.

The D’Backs went 84-78 this season, getting back to both winning baseball and the postseason, earning the final NL wild card slot after a hotly-contested pennant race that came down to the regular season’s final days.  Virtually the entirety of the Snakes’ roster was acquired under Hazen’s watch, ranging from homegrown draft picks (i.e. Corbin Carroll), shrewd trade pickups (Zac Gallen, Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) and under-the-radar acquisitions (i.e. Kelly, Christian Walker) that have paid big dividends.  With Carroll the NL Rookie of the Year favorite, Jordan Lawlar just beginning his MLB career, and top prospect Druw Jones in the pipeline, the Diamondbacks look in good shape to contend for years to come.

The extensions for Sawdaye and Fitzgerald are also noteworthy, as the two assistant GMs are well-regarded in their own right.  Sawdaye has a long history with Hazen dating back to their time working in the Red Sox front office, and Sawdaye has been a candidate for the Giants’ and Angels’ most recent openings for president of baseball operations and general manager, respectively.  Fitzgerald has been with Arizona since 2016 and was promoted to the AGM role after previously working as the team’s director of analytics.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Angels Part Ways With Phil Nevin

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The Angels are making a managerial change. As first reported by Sam Blum of the Athletic (on Twitter), the club has decided not to retain Phil Nevin, whose one-year contract expired at season’s end. General manager Perry Minasian is scheduled to hold a press conference tomorrow, which appears to indicate he’ll retain his position.

Nevin spent a season and a half at the helm. The 52-year-old took over on an interim basis when the club dismissed Joe Maddon in June 2022. At the end of that season, the Halos signed him to a one-year extension and removed the interim tag. It essentially served as a trial run for Nevin, who’d only joined Maddon’s coaching staff heading into the ’22 campaign.

Unfortunately for Nevin and the organization, the 2023 season played out in largely the same disappointing fashion as it had in prior years. Los Angeles made a run at competing in their final season with Shohei Ohtani under arbitration control. They started reasonably well, playing slightly above .500 ball in each of the first four months. An 8-3 run coming out of the All-Star Break led the front office to push further in a win-now direction, dealing top prospect Edgar Quero as part of a package for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. That pushed the Halos past the luxury tax barrier for the first time in two decades.

Almost immediately after that deal, the Halos’ postseason expectations crumbled. They lost seven straight from deadline day onwards, burying them in the standings. By the end of August, the Angels had placed a host of veterans (Giolito and López included) on waivers in hopes of dipping back below the tax threshold. It remains unclear if that effort was successful. Los Angeles would go just 17-36 in the season’s final two months, concluding with a 73-89 record that exactly matched last year’s mark. They dropped to fourth place in the AL West.

On the heels of that kind of collapse, it’s not surprising to see the team make a managerial change — particularly with Nevin’s brief contract having already expired. At the same time, it’s hard to know how much of the blame falls on the manager. The Halos have rapidly churned through dugout leaders without success. Nevin was their fourth manager since 2018 alone.

Longtime skipper Mike Scioscia stepped down at the end of the ’18 campaign. Brad Ausmus was at the helm for 2019. The Angels fired him when Maddon became available, but he only made it through two and a half seasons. None of those skippers oversaw even one winning record. The Angels haven’t finished above .500 since 2015 and are tied with the Tigers for the longest active playoff drought at nine years.

That’s made worse by an uncertain, arguably bleak, future. The Angels face the potential loss of Ohtani this offseason. Even if they manage to re-sign him on what’d almost certainly be the largest contract in major league history, he’s unlikely to pitch for all of next season. Mike Trout played one game from July 4 onward due to a hamate fracture. Anthony Rendon’s backloaded contract pays him $38MM annually for three more years. The farm system is among the thinnest in MLB, as the Angels have aggressively pushed players to the majors and traded prospect talent in order to address short-term deficiencies on the roster.

The Halos aren’t devoid of positives, of course. Trout remains one of the game’s best hitters when healthy, even if his production took a step back from MVP level to merely excellent. Shortstop Zach Neto and catcher Logan O’Hoppe look like regulars. Nolan Schanuel had an impressive rookie showing considering he jumped to the majors within a month of being drafted out of Florida Atlantic, where he was generally facing mid-major college pitching. He’ll eventually need to demonstrate more power, but running a .402 on-base percentage through 29 major league contests within that context is remarkable. Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers remain promising controllable rotation pieces.

Overall, that’s still a below-average collection of organizational talent. The Angels face an uphill battle ascending beyond any of Houston, Texas or Seattle in the AL West — particularly if Ohtani were to land elsewhere. It’ll be a challenging position for whomever the Halos tab to lead the dugout. The Angels join the Mets and Giants as teams that have moved on from their manager in recent days. The Guardians will need to replace Terry Francona — who has all but officially announced his retirement — leaving four current vacancies around the league.

As for Nevin, he should be able to find a position on another major league staff this winter. While his initial foray into major league managing wasn’t successful, the former infielder has a decade and a half of coaching experience. He previously managed in the Tigers’ and Diamondbacks’ systems and has been on a big league staff since 2017. Nevin spent a year as the third base coach for the Giants, held the same position with the Yankees for five seasons, and was the Halos’ third base coach before replacing Maddon.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brandon Woodruff Out For Wild Card Series With Shoulder Injury

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Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff has a right shoulder injury, which will keep him from playing in the upcoming NL Wild Card Series, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). Whether or not he can pitch later in the postseason, should the Brewers advance, remains to be seen.

The All-Star right-hander spent four months of the 2023 campaign on the injured list with a subscapular strain in his right shoulder. However, he returned in early August and looked healthy down the stretch, pitching to a 2.59 ERA in nine starts while averaging more than six innings per game. His shoulder bothered him during his final outing of the regular season, but initially, he responded well to treatment. Thus, the severity of his injury came as a surprise for the Brewers; the team was counting on him to start game two of the Wild Card series against the Diamondbacks.

Woodruff plans to get a second opinion on his shoulder, but the team isn’t expecting an update until the end of the week. While they will hope for the best, Counsell and his staff will have to prepare for the worst-case scenario, in which their number two starter is out for the rest of the playoffs.

The Brewers have not yet announced who will start on Wednesday in Woodruff’s place, although Freddy Peralta seems to be the most likely candidate. The 27-year-old pitched his first qualifying season this year, making 30 starts with a 3.86 ERA. It’s harder to guess who will start for Milwaukee in a potential game three. Wade Miley and Adrian Houser are presumably the leading candidates; each had a solid year in 2023, and each is coming off a strong September. Miley pitched to a 3.04 ERA in his final five games, while Houser put up a 2.14 ERA in four September starts. The elder Miley probably has the edge, thanks to his veteran experience and his lefty arm, but Counsell will surely take his time thinking about individual matchups before he makes a decision.

While the Brewers have rotation depth to call upon, this still comes as a huge blow to their postseason hopes. At full strength, Woodruff is one of the better starting pitchers in the National League, and this team was counting on a powerful one-two punch of Corbin Burnes and Woodruff to lead them over the Diamondbacks. No one was more upset about the news than Woodruff himself, who choked up as he told reporters, “We’ve got a good clubhouse. And I want to be a part of that. Sitting here now, I may not.”

Buck Showalter Will Not Return As Mets Manager In 2024

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5:52PM: Cohen told Tim Britton and other reporters that Stearns made the decision to fire Showalter.  “When you bring in a president of baseball ops, they’re entitled to bring in their own people….It became clear [Stearns] wanted to go in a different direction.  That was his right, and I gave him that right,” Cohen said.

1:35PM: Buck Showalter told reporters this afternoon (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) that he will not return to the Mets as manager in 2024. Per Mike Puma of the New York Post, Showalter was told he would be fired if he did not step down as manager. The Mets released a statement on the matter, confirming that Showalter would not return.

“We are heading in a new direction, with a new president of baseball operations and we let Buck know we’ll be parting ways. We will begin the search for a new manager immediately,” owner Steve Cohen said in the statement. “Buck is a generational manager, and we value what he has done for our team… The commitment and heart that Buck brings to the game will be felt by our organization for years to come. We wish Buck all the best in the next chapter of his career.”

The statement also noted that Cohen will be made available to the media tomorrow afternoon to address Showalter’s departure and announce the club’s new president of baseball operations. The club has reportedly agreed to terms with former Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns to take over baseball operations in Queens earlier this month. GM Billy Eppler also commented in the statement, while Showalter spoke to reporters before today’s game against the Phillies.

“I was honored to get a chance to manage a second New York team,” Showalter said (as relayed by DiComo), “I’m proud of what the Mets did. We won close to 180 games in two years. Especially last year, as much fun as I’ve ever had in the game. It reminded me of why I always loved this kind of work.” Showalter added (per Tim Britton of The Athletic) that he “wishes things could have gone better this season because Mets fans deserve that” and that he “still loves the city and the players” despite this not being the ending to his tenure as Mets manager that he hoped for.

Showalter’s first managerial gig was with the Yankees back in 1992. Since then, he’s spent a combined 22 years at the helm of a big league club, with stints as manager of the Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Orioles before joining the Mets ahead of the 2022 season. Showalter has won Manager of the Year four times in his career: in 1994 with the Yankees, 2004 with the Rangers, 2014 with the Orioles, and most recently in 2022 with the Mets. In 3,392 career games managed, Showalter has a record of 1726-1664, with a winning percentage of .509.

Though Showalter won 101 games with the Mets en route to his aforementioned fourth Manager of the Year award last year, this season’s club fell well below the lofty performance of the 2022 team despite the addition of future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. The club’s struggles led the front office to deal away Verlander, fellow Hall of Fame-bound ace Max Scherzer and closer David Robertson prior to the trade deadline on August 1, with the Mets being mathematically eliminated from postseason contention six weeks later. With the Giants having fired manager Gabe Kapler earlier this week and Cleveland’s Terry Francona widely understood to be retiring following the 2023 campaign, Showalter’s departure in New York makes three managerial vacancies to be filled this offseason.

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