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Liam Hendriks Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The White Sox announced this evening that star closer Liam Hendriks has undergone Tommy John surgery. According to the club, he’ll require a 12-14 month recovery timeline.

Hendriks has been on the injured list since the second week of June with what the team initially called elbow inflammation. There’d been no prior indication surgery was under consideration. As of a couple weeks ago, the righty had been throwing simulated games. He apparently suffered a setback during that rehab work and will now miss the majority or all of next season.

It’s a disheartening blow. Hendriks’ quick return from an offseason non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis has been one of the best stories of the 2023 season. He announced his diagnosis in early January. Within roughly three and a half months, he’d completed chemotherapy and been declared cancer-free. He was remarkably back on a major league mound by May 29.

Certainly, the revelation he’d require elbow surgery pales in comparison to the life-threatening news he’d gotten (and overcome) just months before. Yet it’s an obviously tough development for his playing career. Hendriks turns 35 next February. There’s a good chance he’s unable to return to pitching until his age-36 campaign.

Between the late start to the season and the subsequent elbow injury, the three-time All-Star only made five MLB appearances this year. He was one of the top handful of relievers in the sport between 2019-22. Hendriks broke out late in his career with Oakland and maintained that elite performance for his first two seasons with the Sox. Over that four-year stretch, he posted a 2.26 ERA with an elite 38.8% strikeout rate across 239 innings.

With this revelation, it’s possible Hendriks has thrown his last pitch for Chicago. His three-year, $54MM free agent contract contained a $15MM club option for 2024. The deal came with a matching buyout figure — it was built in largely as an accounting measure to frontload the contract’s competitive balance tax hit — that’ll now come into play. If the Sox buy Hendriks out, they’ll be able to defer that payment over the next 10 years.

That’s the course of action they’ll almost certainly take. With Hendriks unlikely to pitch in 2024 regardless, there’s little reason for the Sox not to pay the $15MM in installments. Hendriks figures to return to free agency next winter, where he could field two-year offers from teams with an eye towards the 2025 campaign.

Scherzer: Mets Planning 2024 As “A Kind Of Transitory Year” With Focus On 2025-26

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The Mets had a Major League record payroll of close to $357MM on Opening Day, as they followed up their 101-win season in 2022 with an incredibly aggressive offseason.  However, just as the Mets broke new ground in building their roster, they have also been as aggressive in pivoting in the wake of a very disappointing four months.

With just a 50-55 record entering today’s action, the Mets have been one of the trade deadline’s busiest teams, unloading both major and minor names, rental players and some players controlled beyond the 2023 season.  The long list of players departing Queens in the last six weeks includes Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, Dominic Leone, and Eduardo Escobar, as the Mets have pursued a strategy of absorbing most of the salaries of those departed players in order to obtain more young talent in return.

As Scherzer told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mets’ plan apparently extends to rebuilding not for the 2024 season, but for future seasons.  Scherzer had to waive his no-trade protection in order to be dealt to the Rangers, and before making his decision, the ace first spoke with GM Billy Eppler and the Amazins’ longer-term plans.

According to Scherzer, “I was like, ’OK, are we reloading for 2024?’  [Eppler] goes, ’No, we’re not.  Basically our vision now is for 2025-2026, ’25 at the earliest, more like ’26.  We’re going to be making trades around that.’  I was like, ’So the team is not going to be pursuing free agents this offseason or assemble a team that can compete for a World Series next year?’  He said, ’No, we’re not going to be signing the upper-echelon guys.  We’re going to be on the smaller deals within free agency. ‘24 is now looking to be more of a kind of transitory year.’ ”

A follow-up chat between Scherzer and Mets owner Steve Cohen took the same tack, which inspired Scherzer to waive his no-trade clause and approve the deal to the Rangers.  “That’s basically what Steve said: ’I never thought in a million years we’d be in this situation, being at the deadline and we’re actually selling.  But the math is the math.  And the math says this organization needs to retool.’  That was Steve saying that.  I said, ’I get it. I’m not here to say you’re wrong.’  It is what it is. I understand from Steve’s perspective that’s the direction he wants to take the team based on where everyone is at within their contracts, arbitration, free agency.  That was the new vision for the Mets.”

However, Scherzer also noted that “if they had said, ‘We’re going to hold on to all the ‘24 pieces,’ that would have been a different story.”

“But they were saying no, we’re going to be moving players that are under contract for 2024 before the deadline.  We walked through some players I had in mind who would be that.  It turned out it was much more extensive than that.  The players we ended up talking about who are free agents after ‘24, they were more substantial names.  Any player who was a free agent after 2024 at the right price could be moved right now at the deadline.  That’s a completely different vision from what everybody had in the clubhouse.  All the players had a vision of, we reload for 2024.  That was no longer the case.”

Scherzer (who had an opt-out clause), Canha ($11.5MM club option for 2024), and Verlander were the only players controlled beyond 2023 who ended up being moved, as the likes of Jose Quintana and other club-option players like Brooks Raley, Omar Narvaez, and Adam Ottavino are all still with New York.  Still, obviously moving two cornerstone aces like Scherzer and Verlander marked a severe change in direction for the Mets’ plans, as trading either pitcher in a deadline deal would’ve seem far-fetched given the hefty investment made in both future Hall-of-Famers over the last two winters.  Verlander was signed to a two-year, $86.67MM with a conditional player option for 2025, while Scherzer came to Queens in the 2021-22 offseason on a three-year, $130MM pact.

In the wake of Scherzer’s trade, Eppler stated to reporters that “I do want to be clear that it’s not a rebuild.  It’s not a fire sale.  It’s not a liquidation.  This is just a repurposing of Steve’s investment in the club, and kind of shifting that investment from the team into the organization.”  Talking with media (including SNY’s John Flanigan) today, Eppler didn’t comment on Scherzer’s statements to Rosenthal, but expanded on his previous statement and reiterated that the Mets weren’t going to tank.

“One of the goals here is to expedite the longer-term goal.  We’re trying to restock and reload the farm system,” Eppler said.  “You have to go through a little pain to get where we want to go, but I feel like the organization is making strides towards a better future…..Going into 2024 we don’t see ourselves having the same odds that we did in 2022 and 2023, but we will field a competitive team.”

Cohen made similar remarks in a text to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, saying “We will be competitive in ’24 but I think 25-26 is when our young talent makes an impact.  Lots of pitching in free agency in ’24.  More payroll flexibility in ’25.  Got a lot of dead money in ’24.”

Since buying the Mets in November 2020, Cohen has been quite open about his bigger-picture dream for the club — citing the Dodgers as the model, Cohen wanted to field a consistent contender with the resources to acquire premium free agents or trade targets, but largely fueled by star talent developed by the Mets’ own farm system.  Cohen didn’t want to wait for that prospect base to be fully built before the Mets started winning, however, and said that he would spend heavily to make the team a contender in the interim.

As it has turned out, this initial plan might just result in one winning season in Cohen’s first three years running the club.  The Mets were 77-85 in 2021, are on pace for a losing record this year, and even the 101-win performance last year was muted when the Padres ousted them in the wild card series.  Rather than splurge again to restock a flawed roster for 2024, it makes sense that Cohen and Eppler might view taking a step back in order to hopefully two steps forward in 2025 or 2026, rather than continue to tread water in a competitive NL East.  The Braves look like surefire contenders for years to come, the Phillies won the NL pennant last year, and the Marlins have also gotten themselves back into the playoff race.

The new direction opens a wealth of new possibilities for the Mets this coming offseason.  It can be assumed that highly-touted youngsters Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty aren’t going anywhere, if New York wants to expand its young core.  Players recently signed to longer-term contracts or extensions (i.e. Francisco Lindor, Kodai Senga, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz) aren’t likely to be moved either, since this group will all still be around during the Mets’ new timeline for contention.

Beyond that core, it’s fair to wonder if any other Mets player might be on the trade market this winter.  That includes Jose Quintana (signed through 2024) and Starling Marte (signed through 2025), as while neither has amassed much of a track record in 2023, the Mets have shown that they’re more than willing to eat money to accommodate trades.  The biggest question mark might hang over Pete Alonso, as the slugger has one final arbitration-eligible year remaining before he enters free agency following the 2024 campaign.

Roster Resource projects that New York has roughly $204.2MM on the books for 2024 already, but a step back from contention might also logically mean a desire for the team to reset its luxury tax status.  The Mets obviously blew past the highest tax levels in both 2022 and 2023, but getting out of tax territory entirely ($237MM is the lowest threshold level in 2024) would both reduce the team’s financial penalty, and more importantly the asset-related penalties attached with tax overages.  For instance, the Mets would be able to sign qualifying-offer free agents for a lesser cost of draft picks, while also netting a higher draft return for any of their own free agents who reject a QO and sign elsewhere.  In other punishment for incurring such a high tax bill in 2022, the Mets also had their first pick in the 2023 draft pushed back by ten slots, and their international signing pool was reduced.

If the Amazins aren’t planning to be big spenders this winter, that naturally has a big impact on this offseason’s free agent class, given how Cohen’s largesse has driven the market over the last two years.  Given the relatively thin nature of the 2023-24 class, the Mets front office might be planning to capitalize by using some of their roster as trade chips, as rival clubs might not find what they’re looking for in free agency.  As Cohen noted, there are plenty of interesting pitchers available following the 2024 season if the Mets do intend only a one-year step back, such as Scherzer again, Max Fried, Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and many others.

Speaking Burnes and Woodruff, it would remiss if we didn’t mention the persistent rumors that the Mets will pursue David Stearns as the next president of baseball operations, as Cohen said last month that he is still looking to install a new executive above Eppler on the decision-making pyramid.  Stearns’ contract with the Brewers is up after the season, and if the speculation is true and he does head to New York for his next job, it might make sense if Stearns eventually pursues some of his old Milwaukee players.  That said, whether Stearns or someone else is the new president, it would make sense that the Mets gives the new hire at least a year to fully assess the organization, before turning back towards contending in 2025 or 2026.

Astros Acquire Justin Verlander From Mets

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Justin Verlander is back in Houston. The Astros re-acquired the defending Cy Young winner and cash for outfield prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. Houston designated infielder Joe Perez for assignment in a corresponding 40-man move.

The Mets are paying a combined $35MM of Verlander’s 2023-24 salary. They’d pay half of his $35MM salary in 2025 if his option vests. In all, they’re paying as much as $52.5MM of the nearly $93MM that could still be paid out on his deal, pending that option.

Verlander, 40, was with the Astros from 2017-22 and departed as a free agent this offseason to sign for a record-tying annual value in Queens. His two-year, $86.666MM contract tied his former Tigers teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV on a three-year deal with the Mets, but the reunion between the two future Hall of Famers will only prove to last a few months before being spun into a rivalry. The Mets shipped Scherzer to the Rangers on Saturday and will now send Verlander to Texas’ top division rival.

The 2023 season began on a sour note for Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the year after suffering a strained teres major near the end of spring training. He’s in the midst of yet another strong season, though his performance in 2023 isn’t to the same level as it was in 2022, when he stunned the baseball world by capturing his third Cy Young Award as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Verlander logged a ridiculous 1.75 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 175 innings last season. He’s pitched to a 3.15 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 96 innings this year, and seen slight steps back in his average fastball (from 95.1 mph to 94.6mph), swinging-strike rate (11.6% to 10%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.9% to 35%).

That said, even if Verlander’s overall season numbers aren’t quite as dominant as in 2022, there’s little doubt that he’s a major upgrade to an Astros staff that has lost right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the season. Righty Cristian Javier also hit a wall recently and has been struggling, and the ’Stros lost right-hander Jose Urquidy for three months due to shoulder troubles. Verlander’s return will add one of the most talented arms of the entire generation back to the front of a staff, where he’ll join Cy Young candidate Framber Valdez, standout rookie Hunter Brown, Javier and rookie J.P. France. When Urquidy returns in the near future, it’s possible the Astros will go to a six-man rotation to help monitor the workloads of Brown and France.

For the Mets, Verlander becomes the fourth notable veteran they’ve shipped out in the past week, joining Scherzer, David Robertson and Mark Canha. The Mets have picked up a strong package of prospects in doing so but also waved a white flag on a season in which their $350MM+ payroll was expected to make them legitimate World Series contenders. They’ve also completely wiped out their rotation, which now consists of Jose Quintana (a trade candidate himself), Carlos Carrasco, Kodai Senga and David Peterson. Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi are candidates to step back into the starting staff.

The only near-term pitching prospect the Mets added in that slate of deals was righty Justin Jarvis, who came over from the Brewers and had been ranked near the back of their top 30 prospects on most publications. Given Carrasco’s status as a pending free agent and the unproven nature of Peterson, Megill and Lucchesi, they’ll head into the offseason with an enormous amount of work to do in rounding out the rotation. It’s a deep crop of free agents, headlined by names like Shohei Ohtani, Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urias, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman and NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. If the Mets plan to compete in 2024 — hardly a sure thing in the wake of their deadline activity — they’ll need to aggressively pursue rotation additions via either that free-agent market or the trade market.

The acquisition of Gilbert and Clifford could both help if the Mets choose the latter. While it’s certainly possible that both newly acquired outfielders fit into the long-term puzzle, that’s no sure thing — particularly for a team so willing to splash around in free agency. Brandon Nimmo is already signed for another seven years, so there are only two real long-term vacancies in the outfield anyhow.

Gilbert, 22, is the more advanced of the two prospects and the one who’s garnered more national fanfare. The Astros’ top pick in the 2022 draft, he’s already ascended to the Double-A level in his first full season of pro ball. The University of Tennessee standout laid waste to High-A pitching early in the season, slashing .360/.421/.686 in 95 plate appearances before an aggressive promotion to Double-A. He’s been a bit below average in terms of his overall output there, batting .241/.342/.371 in 264 plate appearances. However, Gilbert has also shown an advanced approach, walking in 12.5% of his Double-A plate appearances against a lower-than-average 17.5% strikeout rate.

MLB.com ranks Gilbert as the game’s No. 68 overall prospect, and FanGraphs has him at No. 49 on their list. Both reports give Gilbert a chance to be in the big leagues by next season, touting his plus speed, plus arm, great approach at the plate and growing power. He has a chance to stick in center field, perhaps pushing Nimmo to a corner if the veteran’s defense slips as he ages into his mid-30s. If not, Gilbert projects as a plus defender in an outfield corner. Both FanGraphs and MLB.com make note of his fiery personality, which could win over hometown fans while grating on opponents.

As for Clifford, he was taken ten rounds later in the same 2022 draft not for lack of talent but for a strong commitment to Vanderbilt University. The Mets convinced him to sign rather than attend college, offering him a huge $1.25MM bonus in the 11th round after most teams had passed assuming he’d head to school.

Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets that Gilbert and Clifford would’ve been his No. 1 and No. 2 Astros prospects, respectively, on the reranking of their system he’s set to publish following the deadline. Clifford hit just .247 but posted a .426 OBP in 101 plate appearances during his pro debut last year, and his rate stats in 2023 are outstanding: .291/.399/.520 in 371 plate appearances between Class-A and High-A. He’s slugged 18 home runs and 16 doubles, walking at a hearty 12.4% clip against a 24% strikeout rate.

FanGraphs had already bumped Clifford to the Astros’ No. 2 prospect — he’s now eighth in the Mets’ system on their rankings — crediting him with the potential to grow into 70-grade raw power. He’s a corner outfielder/first baseman with below-average speed and above-average arm strength. So long as his bat and overall offensive approach continue on their current trajectories, he could be in an outfield corner with occasional first base and DH time for the Mets at some point in 2025.

The Mets have done a nice job adding to their system, acquiring at least a pair of top-100-caliber prospects (Acuna, Gilbert) and another (Clifford) who could get there before long. They’ve paid a steep price to do so, however, gutting their 2023 roster and paying down close to $71MM on the Scherzer and Verlander deals alone. They’ve also saved just over $86MM on the pair of trades, including both salary and luxury tax penalties. In the event Verlander’s option vests and he exercises it, those savings would jump to more than $119MM (while the dead money they’d paid down would rise to more than $86MM).

The Mets are so far into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization, that short of getting a team to take on the entirety of the Verlander and Scherzer contracts, there was no real way of ducking back underneath that line. The Astros, meanwhile, have received enough cash from the Mets that they’ll likely come in under the luxury line. Roster Resource had them exceeding the $233MM first-tier threshold by only a margin of $1.7MM even when assuming the full freight of Verlander’s remaining money; that clearly won’t be the case now. That would’ve been the first time Houston had crossed into luxury territory, but they’ll now have Verlander for a total of $22.777MM for the remainder of this season and next — plus an additional $17.5MM in 2025 if that option vests and he picks it up.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Astros were acquiring Verlander for two prospects. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Gilbert’s inclusion, while Nightengale was first on Clifford. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first with the specific financial breakdown.

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Red Sox Acquire Luis Urías

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The Red Sox announced that they have acquired infielder Luis Urías from the Brewers for minor league right-hander Bradley Blalock. Robert Murray of FanSided first had Urías going to the Red Sox while Adam McCalvy of MLB.com first reported on Blalock’s involvement.

Urías, 26, seemed to be establishing himself as a solid part of the Milwaukee roster in the previous two seasons. Over 2021 and 2022, he launched 39 home runs and hit a combined .244/.340/.426 for a wRC+ of 111. This year, however, has been an entirely different story.

He was placed on the injured list with a hamstring strain after the first game of the season and wasn’t able to return until June 5. In the next three-plus weeks, he hit just .145/.299/.236 for a wRC+ of 60. A .179 batting average on balls in play wasn’t doing him any favors, but his exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate were all down a few points. That cold spell was pronounced enough for the Brewers to send him to the minors, his first time being optioned since he was a Padre back in 2019. Things haven’t gone much better in Triple-A, as he’s hitting .233/.345/.379 at that level this year for a wRC+ of 84.

Right after acquiring Urías, the Sox assigned him to Triple-A, so he’ll serve as infield depth for the time being. Infield depth has been an ongoing concern in Boston this year ever since Trevor Story required elbow surgery in the offseason. He’s still yet to make his season debut, currently out on a rehab assignment. Enrique Hernández came in from the outfield to take over shortstop but that experiment didn’t work and he’s since been traded to the Dodgers.

For now, the club has a mixture of Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes, Christian Arroyo and Justin Turner up the middle. Urías will join Bobby Dalbec among the depth options that are on the 40-man roster but currently stashed at Triple-A. Urías has another option year beyond this one but could wind up non-tendered as he’ll be due a raise on this year’s $4.7MM salary.

In exchange for a player that had fallen out of their plans, the Brewers will get Blalock. The 22-year-old was a 32nd-round selection of the Red Sox in 2019. He was able to get some professional experience in 2019 and 2021, with the pandemic canceling the minor leagues in 2020. Then his 2022 was wiped out by Tommy John surgery, costing him another year of development.

Here in 2023, he’s been putting himself back on the prospect map. He’s made 11 starts, split between Single-A and High-A, posting a 2.19 ERA in 53 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27.6% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate. Back in June, FanGraphs ranked him the #17 prospect in Boston’s system. They note that the Sox were set to have a difficult decision to make, as Blalock will be Rule 5 eligible this winter and could be an attractive pick, despite not yet reaching Double-A.

Marlins Acquire Josh Bell; Guardians Receive Kahlil Watson, Will Release Jean Segura

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The Marlins announced the acquisition of first baseman Josh Bell from the Guardians. Cleveland agreed to take on the contract of infielder Jean Segura — whom they intend to release — while acquiring infield prospect Kahlil Watson.

It’s an out-of-the-blue swap that continues a surprisingly active day for the Marlins. Miami shipped out pitching prospect Jake Eder to install Jake Burger at the hot corner. That apparently set the stage for them to move on from Segura, whose two-year free agent contract didn’t work at all as the club had envisioned.

That was a means of adding offense at one corner infield spot. They’ll hope for the same across the diamond, as they swapped in Bell for Garrett Cooper. Miami dealt their incumbent first baseman to the Padres for starting pitcher Ryan Weathers.

The series of moves results in a buy-low flier on Bell. As with Segura, he signed an ill-fated two-year free agent deal last offseason. The Guardians guaranteed the switch-hitter a two-year, $33MM pact. He can opt out of the deal at the end of the first season. It’s all but a given he’ll elect to play out the contract given the way in which his time in Cleveland transpired.

Bell is hitting .233/.318/.383 over 393 trips to the plate. His 10.9% walk percentage and 20.6% strikeout rate are both solid, but his batted ball results are middling. Bell has managed just 11 home runs and a .272 batting average on balls in play. As has been an issue throughout his career, he’s had a tough time elevating the ball. Bell is putting the ball on the ground at a lofty 48.5% clip, an obviously suboptimal number for a player whose game is built around power.

Still, the high grounder tallies are nothing new. He’s had plenty of success in spite of a propensity for low-angle contact. He combined for a .264/.355/.448 line in more than 1200 plate appearances between 2021-22. At his best, he’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat. Miami will obviously hope for a return to form in a new environment.

Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff clearly believe there’s more untapped potential remaining for Bell than with Segura. The Fish had signed the longtime second baseman to a two-year, $17MM pact with a plan to bump him to third base. It was a risk defensively that hasn’t paid off, as the veteran received well below-average marks for his 720 1/3 innings at the hot corner.

More concerning, Segura didn’t bring anything approaching his previous offensive form. He’s long been a slightly above-average hitter, combining double-digit homer power with excellent contact skills. This was his worst offensive season, however, as he managed only a .219/.277/.279 showing through 326 plate appearances as a Marlin.

Segura’s underlying offensive marks aren’t that far off those of previous seasons. His 38.8% hard contact rate is a near match for last year’s mark. That’s also true of his 6.7% walk percentage and 14.4% strikeout rate. Segura’s results simply weren’t up to par and the Fish elected to move on.

Given that Cleveland is immediately releasing Segura, his inclusion in the trade is strictly a financial measure. Bell is making $16.5MM this season and next. Segura is making $6.5MM this year and $8.5MM next season, as well as a $2MM buyout on a 2025 option. Bell is owed roughly $5.41MM through season’s end; Segura will make $2.13MM down the stretch. Miami takes on roughly $3.28MM this year and $6MM beyond this season to upgrade from Segura to Bell.

Segura will go unclaimed on release waivers in the next couple days. The Guardians will pay out almost all of his remaining contract. Once he clears waivers and becomes a free agent, Segura will be free to choose his next employer. That signing team would only pay him the prorated portion of the league minimum for whatever time he spends on a big league roster over the next season and a half.

In addition to the financial relief, the Guardians are buying low on a one-time top prospect. Watson, a 20-year-old infielder, was the 16th overall pick in the 2021 draft. The high school product was widely regarded as a top five to ten player in the class on talent, only dropping to the middle of the first round because of a lofty bonus demand.

His first two full seasons in pro ball haven’t gone as anticipated. Watson struck out in nearly 36% of his plate appearances in Low-A a year ago, hitting .231/.296/.395 over 83 games. He also missed some time last season on a team-imposed disciplinary absence after a confrontation with an umpire, as Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote in his write-up of Miami’s farm system.

Watson still ranked in the upper third of the Marlins’ top 30 prospects at both FanGraphs and Baseball America, though he’s no longer seen as a top 100 talent around the league. He’s hitting .206/.337/.362 over 243 trips to the plate in High-A this year. He’s connected on seven homers, walked at an elite 14.4% clip and stolen 14 bases. Yet he’s still striking out an alarming rate — 28% of the time. There’s clearly plenty of variability in Watson’s profile, but he has huge bat speed and the chance to stick at a middle infield position. It’s an upside play for Cleveland at a much lower cost than would’ve been required to pry him away 12 to 18 months ago.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported the Marlins were acquiring Bell. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Guardians were receiving Segura and Watson.  Zack Meisel of the Athletic reported the Guardians planned to release Segura.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Acquire Ryan Yarbrough

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The Dodgers have acquired left-hander Ryan Yarbrough from the Royals, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and Juan C. Toribio (Twitter link).  Kansas City is receiving minor league infielders Devin Mann and Derlin Figueroa, Feinsand reports in a follow-up tweet.

While the Dodgers made bids for such high-profile pitchers as Justin Verlander and Eduardo Rodriguez prior to the deadline, they’ll still come away with some rotation help in Yarbrough, who has a 3.08 ERA over 38 innings and seven games as a starter for Kansas City this season.  Of course, that also comes with a 7.62 ERA over 13 innings as a reliever, but Yarbrough has looked very sharp since he was moved into the K.C. rotation in April.

On-field performance has been a secondary story to Yarbrough’s 2023 season, as the southpaw suffered multiple facial fractures after being struck by a Ryan Noda line drive back on May 7.  The injuries sent Yarbrough to the 60-day IL, but he thankfully returned in good health and has been in great form on the mound, with a 2.19 ERA over 24 2/3 innings since being activated off the injured list.

Yarbrough’s secondary metrics are the definition of a mixed bag.  On the one hand, his 86.9% fastball velocity, fastball spin rate, and 13.7% strikeout rate are near the very bottom of the league.  His 3.8% walk rate, however, is among the league’s elite, and he has done an excellent job of inducing soft contact.  His 4.24 ERA is much lower than his 4.97 SIERA, which perhaps better reflects this curious set of Statcast numbers and the move from relief pitching to starting pitching.

The Dodgers have long had a knack for both helping pitchers find a new level of performance or helping them revive their careers altogether, so there’s plenty of promise for Yarbrough in this change of scenery.  The left-hander is likely to get some more starts in an L.A. rotation that includes another new face in Lance Lynn, and the Dodgers now technically have seven healthy starting options in Lynn, Yarbrough, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, and rookies Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, and Michael Grove.

At least two of the youngsters will be moved to Triple-A or to the bullpen in the aftermath of the deadline, and once Clayton Kershaw returned from the 15-day injured list.  Yarbrough could also work as a reliever himself, or in a swingman capacity as the situation warrants.  He is quite familiar with such a role, both with the Royals this season and from his previous time as a starter, reliever, opener, and bulk pitcher with the Rays from 2018-22.

It’s a rental move for Los Angeles, as Yarbrough is a free agent after the season.  He is still owed roughly $1.1MM as the remainder of his $3MM salary for the 2023 season, putting a bit of extra money on the ledger of a Dodgers team already well over the first luxury tax tier ($233MM).  With much still to be settled in the wake of the deadline, Roster Resource projects the Dodgers as just narrowly under the $253MM second tier, and staying under that threshold would at least mean a slightly lesser financial penalty for the Dodgers as they pay into the tax for the third consecutive season.

With a one-year deal, Yarbrough was seen as a potential deadline trade chip from basically the moment he signed with the Royals, and Kansas City’s disastrous season only made a deal even more likely.  The latest of K.C’s many swaps brings in two more prospects, including a player in Mann ranked by both Baseball America (24th) and MLB Pipeline (29th) within the top 30 of the Los Angeles farm system.

Mann was a fifth-round pick for the Dodgers in 2018, and might be ready for a big league look after hitting .307/.402/.541 with 14 homers over 386 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this season.  While the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League brings some pause to Mann’s numbers, the 26-year-old has hit pretty well over the course of his minor league career.  “Mann is a well-rounded player who does a little bit of everything,” according to Baseball America’s scouting report, and his “bat and defensive versatility give him a chance to carve out a career as a lefty-mashing reserve.”  Mann has played all four infield positions and left field this season, and he has logged some time in the other two outfield positions in past years.

The 19-year-old Figueroa was an international signing for L.A. in 2021, and he has hit .237/.372/.376 over 113 PA at the rookie ball level this season.  While still very early in his pro career, Figueroa has at least shown a knack for getting on base, even if his overall hitting ability needs some polish.  Like Mann, Figueroa is a multi-positional player — he has seen time at first base and both outfield corners this season, and played all the other infield positions in his first two seasons.

Padres Acquire Scott Barlow

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The Padres acquired reliever Scott Barlow from the Royals for prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams, according to a team announcement.  The Friars also designated infielder Brandon Dixon for assignment to clear a spot for Barlow.

Barlow, 30, owns a 5.35 ERA, 26.7 K%, 12.5 BB%, and 45.2% groundball rate this year in 38 2/3 innings.  He’s saved 13 games for the Royals along the way.

The Dodgers drafted Barlow in the sixth round out of high school back in 2011.  He signed a split free agent contract with the Royals way back in December 2017.  Barlow started to find his footing in the Royals’ bullpen in the shortened 2020 season, working his way into a closer role the following year.

Barlow has had a couple of trips through arbitration, and decent save totals have led to a $5.3MM salary this year.  Barlow competed with Aroldis Chapman for the Royals’ late-inning work earlier this summer, though Chapman was traded to the Rangers in late June.

Since June 10th, Barlow has an 8.04 ERA, 17.0 K%, and 13.4 BB% in 15 2/3 innings, causing him to fall out of favor with manager Matt Quatraro.  Carlos Hernandez and others have leapfrogged Barlow on the depth chart, and now he’ll get a chance for a fresh start in San Diego.  Barlow can be controlled for 2024 through the arbitration process, but he’ll have to bounce back for the Padres to get tendered a contract.

Josh Hader continues to pitch well atop the Padres’ bullpen, and Robert Suarez made his season debut on July 21st after recovering from an elbow injury.  Nick Martinez and Steven Wilson have been key pieces as well.

Barlow is an aggressive pickup for a Padres team that enters play tonight five games out of the wild card.  The club entered the day with an estimated luxury tax payroll above $280MM, meaning they are in the 95% tax bracket.  FanGraphs still gives the Padres playoff odds of about 35%, and they also added Garrett Cooper, Rich Hill, and Ji Man Choi today.  Padres GM A.J. Preller chose to supplement his club with veterans, rather than cash in impending free agents such as Blake Snell and Hader.

As for the Royals’ return, Williams is a 21-year-old righty starting pitcher who was drafted in the third round out of Duke last year and signed for an above-slot $800K while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  The 6’5″ starter has struggled thus far in 12 Low-A ball starts, but before the season he was seen as a 45 or 50 grade prospect with a three-pitch mix and mid-rotation upside.

Rios, 21, has worked as a reliever this year in the rookie-level Dominican Summer League.  He’s posted a 6.38 ERA in 18 1/3 innings.

Dixon, 31, saw most of his big league time with the Reds and Tigers in 2018-19.  He spent 2021 with the Rakuten Golden Eagles and returned stateside on a minor league deal with the Padres.  He’s been up and down from the Major League club this year, picking up 86 plate appearances in 33 games.

Mark Feinsand was first to report the Padres’ acquisition of Barlow. 

Blue Jays Acquire Paul DeJong

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The Blue Jays moved quickly in the wake of Bo Bichette’s knee injury last night, acquiring veteran shortstop Paul DeJong and cash from the Cardinals for minor league righty Matt Svanson.  The Jays designated outfielder Jordan Luplow for assignment to clear a roster spot for DeJong.

DeJong, who turns 30 tomorrow, has bounced back offensively this year from an increasingly rough three-year period.  DeJong has a 96 wRC+ on the season with 13 home runs in 306 plate appearances.

DeJong burst on the scene with a 123 wRC+ for the Cardinals in 2017, hitting 25 home runs and garnering a second place Rookie of the Year finish.  In March of the following year, the Cards inked him to a six-year, $26MM extension.  That deal includes a $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2024, plus a $15MM option with a $1MM buyout for ’25.  For the remainder of this season, DeJong is owed about $3MM.  According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals are covering buyouts and half of DeJong’s remaining salary.

The Blue Jays are set to pay the competitive balance tax this year for the first time in franchise history.  Their current CBT payroll appears to be right around the second tier of $253MM, beyond which a 32% tax will be paid.

DeJong’s bat slipped to a league average level in 2018-19, but he still popped 30 home runs, made the All-Star team, and posted a career-best 3.7 WAR in ’19.  However, his offense fell further in 2020, and by 2022 Tommy Edman supplanted him as the Cardinals’ primary shortstop by defensive innings played.  2022 was a low point for DeJong, as he was optioned to Triple-A for a period of nearly three months.

This year, DeJong started the season on the IL with a back injury, joining the Cardinals in late April.  He was able to regain the team’s starting shortstop job on the strength of a huge couple weeks.

As a defender, DeJong has posted above-average marks in recent years.  His Statcast outs above average ranks 21st among qualified shortstops since 2021, similar to Brandon Crawford and Ha-Seong Kim.  His defensive runs saved ranks 15th in that time, despite fewer innings than many of those ahead of him.

DeJong might not be the right-handed bat the Blue Jays had been seeking, but assuming he can continue as a league average hitter, he’s likely the best possible shortstop replacement for Bichette that GM Ross Atkins could find on deadline day.

Svanson, 24, was drafted in the 13th round by the Blue Jays in 2021 out of Lehigh University.  Though he made some A-ball starts last year, Svanson has worked exclusively in relief this year as he’s made his way to High-A.  At that level, he has a 1.23 ERA, 31.3 K% and 9.6 BB%.  Svanson has deployed his sinker to get a nifty 56.3% groundball rate in his 29 1/3 innings.  He’ll now head to Double-A with his new organization.

Luplow, 29, signed a one-year, $1.4MM deal with the Braves in December of last year.  He was designated for assignment in early April and claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays.  The Jays had booted Luplow off their 40-man by the end of that month, but he returned in July for three games with the big club.  Luplow had a 92 wRC+ in 208 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

GMs Ross Atkins of the Jays and John Mozeliak of the Cardinals have gotten along well in recent weeks, striking separate trades that sent relievers Genesis Cabrera and Jordan Hicks to Toronto.  Neither GM expected to be in such a position on deadline day: the Blue Jays adding a shortstop, and the Cardinals acting as a seller.  St. Louis has also shipped off Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton, with Jack Flaherty likely on the way out within the next four hours.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network was first to report a deal was close and name the player coming to the Cardinals, while Katie Woo of The Athletic reported the agreement was in place.

Eduardo Rodriguez Not Traded; Vetoed Deal To Dodgers

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5:05pm: The Tigers did not trade Rodriguez, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  If Rodriguez opts out of his contract after the season as expected, the 2023 trade deadline will have to be viewed as a missed opportunity for the club, as he is ineligible for a qualifying offer.  According to Rosenthal’s colleague Fabian Ardaya, Rodriguez vetoed the trade to the Dodgers due to “a desire to remain closer to family on the east coast.”

3:54pm: Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodriguez invoked his no-trade clause to kill a trade to the Dodgers, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  Passan writes that a deal was in place pending Rodriguez’s approval, but is now dead.  Rodriguez’s contract allows him to block deals to ten teams annually, and the Dodgers were on his list.  Now, the Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has approximately one hour before today’s trade deadline to find a new deal for Rodriguez.

Earlier this afternoon, the Tigers reached an agreement to send Rodriguez’s rotation-mate Michael Lorenzen to the Phillies for infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee.  Finding a match for Rodriguez is crucial for Detroit, because he’s possibly the best starting pitcher on the trade market, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer after the season, and he’s likely to opt out of his remaining three years and $49MM.  The Tigers still have 19 teams to which Rodriguez cannot block a deal.

The Padres were said to have interest in Rodriguez, but that may have changed upon their acquisition of Rich Hill.  Plus, it’s possible Rodriguez’s aversion to the Dodgers is a geographical thing and the Padres are also on his list.  The Orioles, Reds, and Diamondbacks could still be possibilities.

The Dodgers, though they’ve added Lance Lynn, have now missed out on top targets Justin Verlander and Rodriguez.  It’s unclear on where they may turn; yesterday, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times suggested Plan C could be to do nothing.  The Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty is still a candidate to move.

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