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Mets Extend Qualifying Offers To Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard

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The Mets announced that they have issued qualifying offers to outfielder Michael Conforto and right-hander Noah Syndergaard.  The two players have until November 17 to decide if they will accept the one-year, $18.4MM offer, or if either will reject the offer and test free agency.

It was already expected that Conforto would receive a QO, though there wasn’t as much clarity on Syndergaard, considering the righty has missed virtually all of the last two seasons.  Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and then his return was further delayed by elbow inflammation, before he got back in time to pitch two innings over two games late in the Mets’ 2021 campaign.

Before the TJ surgery, however, Syndergaard had exhibited some front-of-the-rotation stuff over his first five seasons with New York.  The peak was a 2016 season that saw “Thor” earn an All-Star nod and finish eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting, though over 716 innings from 2015-19, Syndergaard posted a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and a 20.7% K/BB rate.

If Syndergaard is able to deliver close to those types of numbers when healthy in 2022, that is certainly worth an $18.4MM payday.  With this in mind, the Mets clearly felt comfortable issuing the QO to Syndergaard knowing that he very well could accept the one-year deal now, and re-enter free agency next winter in search of a longer-term contract (and an actual platform year on his resume).  Syndergaard returning to the fold would go a long ways towards bolstering a Mets rotation that might lose Marcus Stroman to free agency, plus Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are coming off injury-plagued seasons of their own.

New York is now also eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick if Syndergaard rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, and that possibility can’t be ruled out.  Another team might feel Syndergaard is worth some kind of multi-year commitment right now, or possibly a multi-year deal that contains an opt-out clause after a year so Syndergaard could end up re-entering the 2022-23 free agent class after all.

Conforto seemed like a surefire bet to receive a qualifying offer prior to the 2021 campaign, yet some doubts were raised when the outfielder struggled for a big portion of the season.  A strained right hamstring cost Comforto over a month on the injured list, and he hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances — a large step back from his .259/.358/.484 slash line over his first six seasons.

Looking at the advanced metrics, there isn’t any clear reason behind Conforto’s dropoff, apart from an increase in his groundball rate (a career-high 44.7%), which combined with a .276 BABIP could have resulted in just some bad batted-ball luck.  Apart from that one stat, however, many of Conforto’s 2021 metrics were pretty close or even better than his career rates.

It would seem like Conforto might also be a candidate to accept the qualifying offer, if he wished to enter free agency on the heels of a better platform year come next winter.  However, reports suggest that Conforto will likely reject the QO and test the market this season.  It stands to reason that multiple teams will still have interest in giving Conforto a nice multi-year contract (especially since 2022 will only be his age-29 season), though it will be interesting to see just how big a deal he lands in the wake of his somewhat average 2021 numbers.

White Sox To Exercise Option To Keep Craig Kimbrel

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The White Sox will exercise their $16MM club option to retain reliever Craig Kimbrel, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). When first acquired at the trade deadline (for Codi Heuer and Nick Madrigal), it seemed a foregone conclusion that Chicago would pick up this option, but after a difficult half season on the south side, there was some lingering doubt.

Kimbrel was among the best relievers in the game for the Cubs during the first half of 2021, posting an insane 0.49 ERA/1.10 FIP over 36 2/3 innings while notching 23 saves. After moving to the American League, however, Kimbrel was tagged for a 5.04 ERA/4.56 FIP in 23 innings for the White Sox.

The Sox certainly gave up a lot to get Kimbrel, so it’s not shocking that they would try to get some more out of their investment. Of course, Kimbrel is also one of the most dominant closers of the past 20 years, and his full season numbers (2.26 ERA, 42.6 percent strikeout rate) suggest he’s well worth a $16MM price tag.

The short-term commitment could also make Kimbrel an interesting trade chip, should the White Sox look to make a move. In fact, Jon Heyman of MLB Network names Kimbrel as a trade chip (via Twitter), while Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune goes so far as to say they will “try to deal Kimbrel.”

MLBPA Makes Second Core Economics Proposal To MLB

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Last week, the MLB Players Association made its second proposal on core economics in collective bargaining discussions with the league, report Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The new proposal contained only minor adjustments compared to the PA’s first offer, which was made back in May.

Drellich and Rosenthal reported in August that the MLBPA’s first offer included an emphasis on earlier arbitration for young players, but other details on their vision remained sparse. The Athletic now shines more light on that initial offer, suggesting that an alteration to the draft order, a higher league minimum salary, elevated luxury tax thresholds, alterations to the revenue sharing system, and an unspecified change in how service time is calculated were all included in that opening proposal. The union’s initial proposal also included scenarios where certain players could qualify for free agency without reaching a full six years of major league service. Whether all of those goals remained in the union’s second offer is not clear.

Major League Baseball made one counteroffer in August — a radically different setup that would’ve included lowered luxury tax thresholds with an accompanying salary floor, an age-based system in which players first reach free agency at 29.5 years old, and a revenue-based pool system to replace the current arbitration structure. Given the massive differences in what’s publicly known about each side’s offers, it’s no surprise the MLBPA reportedly considered the league’s offer a non-starter.

Drellich and Rosenthal also shed a bit more light on MLB’s first proposal. The league’s proposed salary floor, which was to be set at $100MM, was a “soft” floor, featuring unspecified penalties for teams that don’t reach that mark in annual payroll rather than a firm mandate to do so. To address players’ concerns about rebuilding teams, MLB’s offer included a provision that would prevent teams from picking in the top five of the amateur draft in three consecutive seasons.

MLB’s proposal also included a provision to overhaul the system for teams to acquire international amateur prospects, per Drellich and Rosenthal. Currently, teams are annually allotted a hard-capped bonus pool to sign amateur players from outside of the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico. While deals can’t formally be signed until the player turns 16 years old, teams and player representatives often come to verbal agreements a year or more in advance. According to the Athletic, MLB proposed to replace the current system with an international draft, the details of which remain unclear.

The potential for a collectively bargained international draft has long been bandied about. Were it to come to fruition, it’s generally expected that draft would be a separate entity from the current Rule 4 draft for acquiring domestic amateur talent. An international draft would foreclose the potential for advance verbal agreements  for incredibly young players, but it’d also obviously restrict those players’ abilities to choose their preferred destination.

It’s clear that MLB and the MLBPA remain far apart on core economic concepts, but Drellich and Rosenthal report that the sides have made progress in ancillary bargaining areas and are slated for in-person talks at next week’s general managers meetings. The current CBA expires on December 1, and Drellich wrote earlier this week it’s expected that failure to agree on a new CBA by then would result in a lockout and accompanying transactions freeze. Commissioner Rob Manfred and MLBPA executive director Tony Clark have continued to express hope they’ll reach agreement before that point, but the general tenor on the situation has seemed to skew more pessimistic.

Astros Sign Dusty Baker To One-Year Extension

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The Astros are bringing back their skipper, announcing on Friday that they’ve agreed to a one-year contract that keeps Dusty Baker in the dugout for 2022. It’ll be his third season in Houston.

Baker has had plenty of success in his first two years, leading the team to the AL Championship Series in 2020 and an AL pennant this past season. Houston lost to the Braves in the World Series, but there’s little question the Astros have had plenty of success during Baker’s tenure. Over his two seasons at the helm, the team has posted a 124-98 regular season record (.559 winning percentage) and won four of six playoff series.

Of course, Baker inherited a much stronger roster than most first-year skippers receive. The Astros had gone to the World Series in 2019 under A.J. Hinch, and Baker took over a star-studded clubhouse in a win-now situation. With that talent came the challenge of overseeing a group embroiled in criticism and disrepute after the revelation of the team’s 2017 sign-stealing operation. Regardless of the caliber of players on the roster, the scandal could have weighed on the club’s on-field performance. The front office surely gives Baker no small amount of credit for his ability to navigate the fallout of a cheating scheme that preceded his time in the organization and lead the team to continued success.

Given his success over his first two seasons, Baker always looked to deserve another shot in Houston, assuming the 72-year-old wanted to continue managing. As the expiration of his current two-year deal neared, however, some speculation had begun to mount about his future. Baker’s hiring predated that of general manager James Click, and there’d at least seemed some possibility Click would prefer to bring in his own hire in that role. That apparently won’t be the case, as Baker is now slated to return after meeting with owner Jim Crane this morning.

Even before his successful couple of seasons in Houston, Baker had established himself as one of the most accomplished managers in MLB history. A two-time All-Star as a player, he first became a big league skipper with the 1993 Giants. Baker led the Giants for ten seasons, then managed the Cubs from 2003-06, the Reds from 2008-13 and the Nationals from 2016-17. His teams posted cumulative winning records in every stop except for Chicago, and Baker’s 1,987 regular season wins are the twelfth-most in history. Only Tony La Russa has more wins among active skippers.

Baker will assuredly eclipse 2,000 wins early next season, and he’ll have another chance at claiming a first World Series title. The three-time Manager of the Year winner’s teams haven’t been without postseason success, as he’s led four teams at least as far as an LCS and two squads (the 2002 Giants and 2021 Astros) to a pennant. Baker’s clubs haven’t yet claimed a World Series title, though. There’s certainly a fair amount of bad luck in that fact, given the small sample vagaries of playoff baseball.

Regardless of whether or to what extent Baker deserves blame for his teams not yet winning a World Series, there’s no doubt he’ll be motivated to accomplish that elusive final goal. The Astros are facing the potential departures of quite a few key free agents, most notably shortstop Carlos Correa, but they’re sure to bring back another very talented roster even if they lose a couple of their top players. With Baker back to lead the charge, Houston figures to yet again enter the season as one of the top contenders in the American League.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Baker was expected to re-sign. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to relay that Baker had signed a one-year deal.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Hiroshima Carp To Post Outfielder Seiya Suzuki For MLB Teams

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The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball will post 27-year-old outfielder Seiya Suzuki for Major League clubs this winter, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Yahoo Japan reported two weeks ago that Suzuki was likely to be posted for big league clubs.

Suzuki’s posting will serve as a major storyline this offseason. The slugging right fielder is considered to be among the very best players in NPB at the moment and is putting the finishing touches on a monster season that has seen him slash .319/.436/.644 with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals (in 13 tries). That’s hardly a one-year fluke, either; dating back to 2018, the right-handed-hitting Suzuki has put together a combined .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles, four triples and 44 stolen bases (albeit in 72 attempts) through 2167 plate appearances. Unlike many sluggers, Suzuki achieves this production without selling out for the power. Since 2018, he’s fanned in only 16.4 percent of his plate appearances — compared to a nearly identical 16 percent walk rate.

MLBTR has received a broad range of opinions when checking in with teams who’ve seen Suzuki. That’s in part due to the inherent volatility associated with signing star players from foreign professional leagues, whether it be NPB, the Korea Baseball Organization or the Cuban National Series. It’s also perhaps a reflection of the fact that scouts haven’t had the type of in-person access to Suzuki in recent years that they would have had prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The most bullish opinions we’ve gotten peg Suzuki as an everyday Major League right fielder — a solid defensive player with a strong arm and enough power to hit in the middle of a big league lineup. In an August profile of Suzuki, Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times cited a scout who called him the “best player in Japan the past few years,” and I’ve heard that sentiment echoed myself in doing background work on Suzuki. Baseball America’s Matt Eddy puts a 70-grade on Suzuki’s raw power (on the 20-80 scale), and at least one evaluator I spoke to thought he could produce 25-plus home runs with a solid batting average and strong on-base percentage. Suzuki is a four-time NPB Gold Glove winner in right field, and the expectation is that he can play average or better defense in the big leagues, even if he’s not a Gold Glover in MLB.

There’s obviously a fair bit of risk when committing significant dollars to any international star, and skeptics could point to the recent struggles from Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama in their own transitions to Major League Baseball. However, Tsutsugo was seen largely as a pure power bat with minimal defensive value and preexisting strikeout issues in Japan. Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a look just today at why Suzuki is considered a much better bet to succeed in the Majors than Tsutsugo was. Akiyama, meanwhile, was five years older than Suzuki is now when he jumped to the Majors, and he didn’t stack up in the power department. Suzuki is younger and more well-rounded than both Tsutsugo and Akiyama, and we expect interest on the free-agent market to reflect that.

Once Suzuki is formally posted, Major League clubs will have 30 days to negotiate with his representatives. As a reminder, the current iteration of the NPB-MLB posting system did away with the former blind-bidding system and the $20MM-max posting fee system. Rather, the current system determines the posting/release fee owed to the Carp based on the size of contract signed by a player.

Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. That fee comes in addition to the contract itself, and any subsequent guaranteed money (e.g. salary unlocked through performance incentives or club options) also falls under this purview. If Suzuki does not agree to terms with a Major League club, he’d return to the Carp for the 2022 season. He could be posted a second time next winter and would be able to pursue Major League opportunities as an unrestricted free agent (i.e. outside the confines of the posting system) following the 2023 season.

Padres Announce Several Option Decisions

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The Padres have announced that they exercised their club options over right-handed relievers Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen for the 2022 season. Johnson will be retained for $3MM while Stammen will return on a $4MM salary.

While the two relievers offer differing skillsets, it was an easy call to hold onto both players for similar salaries. In 2021 Johnson posted a solid 3.22 ERA and again mystified the opposition with a 31.6% strikeout percentage that ranks as firmly above average. While the right-hander gives up too many free passes (11.1 BB%) and doesn’t induce many groundballs (33.3 GB%) he has proven adept at avoiding home runs when opponents are actually able to put the ball in play against him.

Stammen, meanwhile, rebounded nicely from an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season where he sported a 5.63 ERA after 24 innings. It’s worth noting that his performance there was impacted by some bad BABIP luck, as the durable reliever’s underlying peripherals largely resemble this year’s successful campaign. Regardless, this recent season saw the BABIP pendulum swing the other way while Stammen’s strikeout rate ticked upward and his 55.1% groundball rate remained typically robust. The 38-year-old will look to replicate this year’s 3.06 ERA next season in what will be his sixth season of a very strong Padres tenure.

They’ve also declined their options over right-handed reliever Keone Kela and outfielder Jake Marisnick. San Diego could have paid Kela $800K and Marisnick $4MM to stay aboard next season, but clearly felt between their respective injury and underperformance neither was worth the entirety of that investment. Marisnick will receive a $500k buyout before heading to free agency.

The Kela decision registers as the greater surprise here, as a strikeout-happy reliever with a career 3.33 ERA on its face seems like a bargain with a sub-$1MM price tag. Still, the 28-year-old is recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn’t thought to be available until midway through next season. After tallying just 42 1/3 innings over the past three seasons, and some declining bottom-line results, the Padres clearly didn’t feel the fiery right-hander was worth the half-season gamble.

Marisnick, meanwhile, was a no-brainer to have his option declined after an ill-fated midseason deal with the Cubs landed him on the west coast. As a glove-first, center field-capable player Marisnick provided adequate production at the plate in Chicago, delivering a .731 OPS. That number cratered following the trade however, as a subsequent .472 OPS contributed to the Padres year-end skid and negated a good deal of the value Marisnick had built for himself earlier in the year.

Additionally, the team confirmed that utility-man Jurickson Profar has exercised his $7.3MM player option for the upcoming season while right-handed closer Mark Melancon has declined his $5MM player option in favor of a $1MM buyout and trip to free agency. The result of both player options are largely formalities at this point, considering the platform years both players posted.

By measure of bWAR Profar was the definition of a replacement-level player in 2021. The one-time top prospect bounced around five positions and upped his walk-rate to a cool 11.9% across 137 games. Unfortunately, that versatility was undercut by generally poor reviews of Profar’s glovework across 4 of his 5 positions. Furthermore, an inability to hit the ball with much authority meant those 137 games worth of plate appearances led to a punchless .227/.329/.320 slash line. Profar will look to tap into some of the upside that he’s shown flashes of throughout his career before making a call on next year’s $8.3MM player option.

Lastly, the 36-year-old Melancon proved to be one of last offseason’s thriftiest pickups. In return for a $3MM guarantee the veteran gave the Padres outstanding production at the back of their bullpen, leading the league with 39 saves in his fifth All-Star campaign. Some batted ball luck worked in Melancon’s favor this season, suggesting his 2.23 ERA is due for some regression, but a very strong groundball and home run rate— plus a spike in strikeout rate from last season— indicate that Melancon remains a plenty serviceable option as a high leverage reliever.

Guardians Exercise Option On Jose Ramirez, Decline Option On Roberto Perez

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The Guardians announced Friday that they’ve exercised their 2022 club option on third baseman Jose Ramirez and declined a club option on catcher Roberto Perez, making him a free agent for the first time in his career. Cleveland also confirmed the previously reported hiring of Chris Valaika as the team’s new hitting coach.

Ramirez’s $12MM option was among the easiest option calls any team will ever have to make. His contract also contains a $14MM club option for the 2023 season. Perez, meanwhile, will receive a $450K buyout in lieu of a $7MM option and explore the open market.

There was never a shred of doubt that Ramirez’s option would be picked up. The 29-year-old has cemented himself as one of the game’s elite players and lived up to that billing once again in 2021, slashing .266/.355/.538 with 36 home runs, 32 doubles, five triples, 27 stolen bases and elite defense at the hot corner.

With just two years remaining on his contract, Ramirez will surely be the subject of offseason trade inquiries, but Cleveland needn’t feel obligated to move him unless an absolutely mammoth trade offer is made. Ramirez’s contract is the only one on the books for the team in 2022, and with a modest arbitration class there’s no real financial concerns for Cleveland, even if the hope is to again operate on a relatively stripped-down payroll. Suffice it to say, president of baseball ops Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff will have plenty of leverage if (when) clubs do come calling about Ramirez.

For all the speculation about a potential Ramirez trade, however, it’s important to note that there’s no reason Cleveland can’t seek to contend in 2022. Ramirez will return alongside a core that features Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie and 2020 breakout arm Cal Quantrill. The lineup is rife with question marks, but Amed Rosario hit well in his first season with the club and there are several top-end prospects on the cusp of big league readiness. For the first year under a rebranded moniker, it’s only sensible that the Guardians would look to put out a more compelling product.

As for Perez, he’s been unable to replicate his breakout 2019 showing at the plate — a season that saw him swat 24 home runs and post a .239/.321/.452 batting line. Paired with his excellent defense, that offensive output made Perez one of baseball’s best all-around catchers in 2019. Since then, he’s dealt with a pair of shoulder injuries and a fractured finger. It’s quite obviously possible that the arm/hand injuries have combined to sap Perez’s production, but with a more affordable and comparably strong defender available in the form of Austin Hedges, Cleveland unsurprisingly chose to move on.

Joc Pederson Declines Mutual Option

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Braves outfielder Joc Pederson has declined his end of a $10MM mutual option in favor of a $2.5MM buyout, the Associated Press reports. Unlike teammate Adam Duvall, who also declined a mutual option this week, Pederson has more than six years of Major League service time and is thus a free agent now that he’s declined his end of the option.

Signed by the Cubs to a one-year deal last winter, Pederson was guaranteed $7MM in the form of a $4.5MM base salary and the $2.5MM buyout on the option he’s now declined. He can’t receive a qualifying offer by virtue of the fact that he was traded midseason (from Chicago to Atlanta), though it’s unlikely he’d have been a candidate for such an offer anyhow.

Pederson, 30 in April, posted similar overall numbers in 256 plate appearances with the Cubs and 173 plate appearances with the Braves, resulting in an overall .238/.310/.422 batting line on the season. He connected on 18 home runs, 19 doubles and three triples.

It’s perhaps encouraging that the left-handed-hitting Pederson, who has some longstanding struggles against left-handed pitching, hit lefties at a solid .265/.348/.378 clip in 2021 — albeit in a small sample of 112 plate appearances. However, it’s also concerning that his typically outstanding production against right-handers dwindled; in 369 plate appearances with the platoon advantage, Pederson slashed an uncharacteristically pedestrian .230/.298/.435.

When the page flipped to the postseason, the “Joctober” narrative took full effect, as Pederson clubbed a pair of pivotal pinch-hit home runs during Atlanta’s NLDS victory over the Brewers. Pederson homered early in the NLCS as well, but his bat went dormant for the remainder of the postseason, as he finished out the playoffs in a 2-for-26 swoon with a walk and eight strikeouts. It’s worth pointing out that, fun as the “Joctober” moniker may be, his career postseason line of .256/.332/.482 now quite closely resembles his lifetime .232/.332/.462 regular-season batting line.

Pederson will now head back out into what he hopes will be a healthier free agent market than he encountered last winter, when many clubs simply opted not to spend on the heels of a 2020 season played without ticket revenues. The expiring collective bargaining agreement will create similar uncertainty for free agents, but it’s likelier that teams will be more amenable to spending than they were last time around. Pederson’s 2021 showing didn’t exactly send his free-agent stock soaring, but it was still an improvement over a woeful .190/.285/.397 showing from that 2020 season. A multi-year deal seems possible, but with a fairly deep crop of corner outfielders available in free agency, he might settle for a second consecutive one-year pact.

Kyle Schwarber Declines Mutual Option

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Red Sox outfielder Kyle Schwarber declined his half of an $11.5MM mutual option and is now a free agent, per the Associated Press. Schwarber signed a one-year, $10MM contract with the Nationals last winter — a deal that guaranteed him a $7MM salary in 2021 plus a $3MM buyout on the option he’s now declined. The Red Sox will not be able to issue a qualifying offer, as he’s ineligible to receive one after being traded from Washington to Boston midseason.

Kyle Schwarber | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

It was a season to remember for the 28-year-old Schwarber, who opened the year with a rather pedestrian two-month stretch in D.C. before embarking on one of the great hot streaks in the history of Major League Baseball. The former No. 4 overall draft pick carried a .218/.312/.404 batting line through his first 215 plate appearances in Washington, making the Cubs’ decision to non-tender him the prior winter look at least somewhat justified. From that point forth, however, Schwarber found another gear and delivered the best production of his career.

On June 12, Schwarber went 1-for-3 with a solo homer in the first game of a doubleheader. An inauspicious game in and of itself, that kicked off a prodigious stretch that saw Schwarber blast a near-unfathomable 16 home runs in a span of 18 games — a total of just 77 plate appearances. From June 12 through July 2, Schwarber posted a Herculean .338/.409/.974 batting line. It looked as though no pitcher could stop Schwarber at that point, but unfortunately for both him and the Nats, an injury could. A hamstring strain landed Schwarber on the injured list on July 3, and during his absence, a free-falling Nats club engineered a rare (for them) fire sale that saw an injured Schwarber traded to the Red Sox.

The Sox knew full well that Schwarber wouldn’t be ready for a bit at the time of his acquisition, but his activation on Aug. 13 was rather surprising. The Sox, facing some dire needs in the lineup, reinstated Schwarber from the injured list after a six-week layoff without even sending him out on a minor league rehab assignment. And yet, despite being dropped cold into the throes of the AL East, Schwarber immediately resumed his juggernaut status at the plate.

In 168 plate appearances down the stretch with the Sox, Schwarber mashed at a .291/.435/.522 clip with seven home runs and 10 doubles. The hot streak carried on into the postseason, where Schwarber opened with a 9-for-32 showing with three home runs — including an epic Game 3 ALCS grand slam. That proved to finally be the stopping point for Schwarber, however, as he was held hitless in his next 16 plate appearances as the Astros came back to topple the Sox and end their season.

Schwarber played in just 113 regular season games but nevertheless belted 32 home runs while slashing a stout .266/.374/.554 with a 13.6% walk rate and a 27.0% strikeout rate. He won’t win any awards for his glovework in the outfield, and his brief foray at first base wasn’t exactly smooth sailing. However, the the likely advent of the designated hitter in the National League and a mammoth showing at the plate, Schwarber should see a robust market for his services this winter.

Teams may still have some questions about Schwarber’s ability to handle lefties. He hit .268/.389/.398 against them in 2021, albeit with a .377 average on balls in play and in only 149 plate appearances. In 435 prior plate appearances against southpaws, from 2015-20, Schwarber managed only a .197/.301/.348 output. He did cut his strikeout rate and improve his walk rate against southpaws in 2021, however, so the gains weren’t solely BABIP-driven. The extent to which he can sustain (or build upon) those improvements against lefties will be pivotal to Schwarber’s market, but regardless, he’s positioned himself as one of the top bats of the offseason.

Nick Castellanos To Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos has exercised the opt-out clause in his contract and will reenter the free agent market, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The Scott Boras client had two years and $34MM remaining on his contract but will seek a lengthier contract (and a heftier annual value) on the open market. The Reds can, and surely will, extend an $18.4MM qualifying offer to Castellanos — which he’s a lock to reject.

Nick Castellanos | David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Castellanos, 30 in March, has been a near-lock to opt out of this contract for months now. While he decided to forgo the first opt-out provision in his deal last winter after a slumping through the pandemic-shortened season’s final weeks, he’s been one of the best hitters in the National League throughout the 2021 season. Had the microfracture in his wrist suffered back in late July proven to sideline him for a longer period or weigh down his production in the final two months, perhaps it’d have been another story, but Castellanos finished the season on a blistering tear at the plate.

On the whole, Castellanos batted .309/.362/.576 this season, complementing a career-high 34 home runs with 38 doubles and a triple en route to a stout 140 wRC+ on the season. That includes a .294/.335/.606 slash and 14 round-trippers in his final 176 plate appearances, which surely allayed any concern that the July wrist injury would linger and impact his production at the dish.

On the defensive end of the equation, Castellanos once again had his share of struggles. Virtually any defensive metric will paint him as below average in right field, and that’s been an issue for him dating back to his days as a third baseman in Detroit. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both pegged Castellanos at -7 in 2021 — which is actually an improvement over recent seasons — and he checked in with a -1.5 Ultimate Zone Rating. Some may be surprised to see that Castellanos actually has above-average sprint speed (65th percentile among MLB position players), but Statcast also puts him in just the seventh percentile in terms of his outfield jumps.

Overall, the lack of defensive value shouldn’t matter too much. Castellanos has been a consistently above-average hitter since a breakout 2016 campaign with the Tigers, and he enjoyed the best season of his career this past season. With the widely expected advent of the designated hitter in the National League, it’s possible that he’ll be more valuable than ever before in 2022. Full-time (or even semi-regular) DH work was never an option for Castellanos in Detroit thanks to the presence of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, and he’s spent his two and a half seasons away from the Motor City in the National League. Even if he doesn’t immediately slide into full-time DH territory, Castellanos at the very least could see fewer innings in the outfield than he has in the past.

While it’s likely that Castellanos’ mind has been made up on this matter for some time, last night’s comments from Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall surely didn’t create any second thoughts. Krall didn’t outright say that the Reds are going to further slash payroll, but that was the overwhelmingly clear implication as the GM voiced a need to “align our payroll with our resources” and stressed the importance of “scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”

The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ $9.125MM salary on the Angels last offseason and surprisingly non-tendered Archie Bradley just three months after trading for him. Krall’s Wednesday comments — and, to a lesser extent, yesterday’s trade of stalwart catcher Tucker Barnhart — suggest that there’s more of the same in store this winter. In fairness to the Reds, they have a ready-made, offensively superior 2022 option at catcher in Tyler Stephenson, and Barnhart’s salary was steeper than most any team would pay for a backup catcher. How the Reds handle their $10MM club option on southpaw Wade Miley will be more telling.

Suffice it to say, it seems difficult to imagine the Reds pushing to re-sign Castellanos to a new contract that figures to include both a raise on his annual value and at least double the years he previously had remaining. Castellanos is arguably (although not definitively) the best hitter on the free-agent market this winter, and if the designated hitter indeed comes to the National League, he’ll have a vast market of teams bidding on his services. A contract of at least four years in length seems certain, and it’s quite possible that even with a qualifying offer in tow, bidding could push into the five-year range.

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