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Blue Jays Non-Tender Jordan Romano

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The Blue Jays non-tendered closer Jordan Romano, tweets Jeff Passan of ESPN. The two-time All-Star had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.75MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He goes directly into free agency without landing on waivers.

That lofty projection made Romano one of the more obvious high-profile candidates to be let go. His 2024 season was wrecked by injury. The 31-year-old righty pitched in 15 games, allowing 10 runs over 13 2/3 innings. In early July, he underwent arthroscopic surgery to address an impingement in his throwing elbow. That ultimately proved to be a season ender. While the Jays initially expressed hope that Romano could return in September, they fell out of the playoff race and had little reason to rush him back to action.

The Jays weren’t comfortable risking a near-$8MM salary on a rebound. Romano nevertheless becomes one of the most intriguing buy-low targets for teams looking for bullpen help. He was an elite back-end weapon between 2021-23. Romano has recorded 103 saves over the past four seasons, including consecutive 36-save performances in 2022 and ’23.

He topped 55 innings in each of the three seasons preceding this year and turned in a sub-3.00 ERA showing in each year. From 2021-23, Romano posted a 2.37 earned run average through 186 innings. He struck out more than 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 9.2% walk rate.

Toronto already needed to address the bullpen, which ranked 29th in the majors with a 4.82 ERA. Only the Rockies had a more troublesome relief group. Moving on from Romano, while understandable, simply adds to that urgency. The Jays also non-tendered Dillon Tate, opening a second bullpen spot. Erik Swanson and Chad Green project as the top in-house options for leverage work. GM Ross Atkins and his staff will certainly look for at least one, and quite likely multiple, back-end arms during the coming weeks.

Phillies To Non-Tender Austin Hays

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The Phillies have informed outfielder Austin Hays that they will not tender him a contract before tonight’s deadline, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. He’ll immediately become a free agent without having to first clear waivers. He’d been projected for a $6.4MM salary by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Hays, 29, spent his entire career with the Orioles before being traded to the Phils in exchange for Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache a few days before the 2024 trade deadline. The Phillies hoped that Hays, who’d battled injuries in the season’s first half, could rebound with better health and solidify their outfield mix down the stretch. That’s not how things played out, however. Hays suffered a strained hamstring a couple weeks after the trade and only briefly returned before hitting the shelf with a kidney infection that took a significant toll on his body. He only took 80 plate appearances with Philadelphia and batted just .256/.275/.397 in that small sample.

All told, Hays endured three IL stints in 2024, missing time with that kidney infection, hamstring strain and a calf strain that shelved him for three weeks from late April to mid-May. His combined .255/.303/.396 slash between the two clubs was arguably the worst production of his big league career.

While injuries clearly hampered Hays’ 2024 campaign, he’s still only a season removed from an All-Star season. Hays turned in a nice .275/.325/.444 slash with 16 home runs and quality glovework in left field as recently as 2023. He’s long been the type of player who thrives in platoon settings and merely holds his own against same-handed opponents, but paired with his defensive acumen that’s enough for him to have been a solid regular in Baltimore. Hays is a lifetime .277/.331/.469 hitter against lefties (120 wRC+) and a .254/.304/.415 hitter against fellow righties (99 wRC+).

Teams seeking a low-cost, right-handed bat to plug into their outfield mix figure to have interest in Hays. Many non-tendered players ultimately sign minor league deals, but Hays was a notable enough contributor with the O’s from 2021-23 that he ought to find a one-year deal in free agency, presumably a price south of his projected arbitration salary.

The Phillies, meanwhile, were already known to be in the market for outfield help. Hays was a likely non-tender candidate for some time now, though they opted not to make the move before today — presumably gauging the market for potential trade partners. Philadelphia’s outfield includes Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos, but the Phils are interested in adding a bat to the outfield and either going with a Marsh/Rojas platoon in the other spot or giving Marsh a larger role if he can handle lefties better than in the past. The Phillies are planning to meet with Juan Soto and will surely be connected to a variety of other targets both on the open market and trade market.

2024 Non-Tender Candidates

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The non-tender deadline is tomorrow evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Teams have already made a few cuts among that group — either at the beginning of the offseason when players returned from the injured list or prior to Tuesday’s deadline to keep prospects out of the Rule 5 draft. The Cubs, for instance, have already taken Adbert Alzolay and Patrick Wisdom off the 40-man roster and could officially non-tender them tomorrow.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (Scott Kingery and Seth Brown have already signed deals of that ilk.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.

As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.

At least a few of these players will likely be traded, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. MLBTR covered a few candidates for that kind of deal in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

Starting Pitchers

Right-Handed Relievers

Left-Handed Relievers

* Have avoided arbitration since the list was published

Astros Have Made Offer To Alex Bregman

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The Astros have called re-signing Alex Bregman their top offseason priority. Whether that’ll happen remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Houston has made an offer to their longtime third baseman. It’s unclear whether any other teams have made a formal proposal, but Heyman reports that Bregman’s camp has also fielded interest from the Tigers and Red Sox.

Terms of the Astros’ proposal aren’t known. If Houston is going to retain Bregman, it’d probably require the largest investment in franchise history. Their previous organizational high is the five-year, $151MM Jose Altuve extension from 2018. Bregman has a decent shot at six or seven years at more than $25MM annually. He’ll presumably view Matt Chapman’s recent six-year, $151MM extension as the floor and could look to beat $200MM.

Houston general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that the Astros may need to creatively manage the books, potentially by trading a veteran or two who is playing on a notable salary. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this week that the team has the flexibility to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight year.

That’d essentially be a prerequisite to re-signing Bregman. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number in the $234MM range. That’s not far below the $241MM base threshold. Even if the Astros trade veteran setup man Ryan Pressly and offload his $14MM salary, a Bregman contract will send them past the CBT mark. They’re also looking for help at first base and could try for a more affordable bullpen pickup if they deal Pressly.

This is the first direct tie between Bregman and the Tigers. That has been a longstanding speculative match with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch leading the charge in Motown. Detroit’s third base mix is unsettled. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and prospect Jace Jung all took a decent number of at-bats at the position. Vierling and McKinstry are multi-positional players. Third base is the clearest fit for the 24-year-old Jung, who has 34 games of major league experience. If the Tigers were to land Bregman, Jung could push Spencer Torkelson for playing time at first base. He’d also be a potential trade chip as Detroit looks to solidify the rotation behind Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson.

Finances are the much bigger obstacle. While Detroit has run payrolls north of $200MM in the past, those came when the late Mike Ilitch was running the franchise. The Tigers have dramatically reduced spending since Christopher Ilitich’s ownership tenure began in 2017. Much of that came amidst a rebuild that was firmly closed by Detroit’s late-season run to the AL Division Series, so they could loosen the purse strings this winter. The Tigers only have around $80MM on next year’s payroll, according to RosterResource, nearly $20MM below this past season’s Opening Day mark. They should be active on the free agent market, but a Bregman deal would almost certainly top the $140MM Javier Báez contract as Detroit’s biggest under Christopher Ilitch ownership.

The Red Sox appear more likely than either the Astros or Tigers to make a huge free agent splash. Boston brass continues to forecast an aggressive winter. A strike for a top starting pitcher is a clearer fit than a run at Bregman. Heyman suggests the Sox could move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base to accommodate Bregman. That’d push Triston Casas to designated hitter and presumably force Masataka Yoshida off the roster.

The easier solution might be to leave Devers at third base for another season and deploy Bregman at the keystone. The Sox had one of the least productive second base groups in MLB this year. Bregman has barely played second base because of Altuve’s presence in Houston, but agent Scott Boras said at the GM Meetings that the star infielder was willing to slide to the right side of the infield if necessary.

Bregman declined a qualifying offer, so the Tigers and Sox would forfeit a pick if they were to sign him. Detroit would lose its third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Boston would relinquish its second-highest pick and $500K from its international bonus allotment. The Sox’s penalty is higher because they do not receive revenue sharing, while the Tigers do. Houston wouldn’t give up anything to re-sign their own free agent, though they’d pass up the chance to collect a compensation pick after the fourth round if Bregman walks.

Shohei Ohtani Wins NL MVP

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Shohei Ohtani has his third MVP. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that Ohtani won the National League MVP in his first season as a Dodger. Francisco Lindor landed in second place, while Ketel Marte rounds out the top three. Ohtani received all 30 first-place votes.

Ohtani becomes the first full-time designated hitter to win MVP, as he was unable to pitch for the entire season after undergoing elbow surgery late last year. He joins Frank Robinson as the only players to win an MVP in both leagues and he’s only the 12th player in big league history to win the award three times in his career. Barry Bonds is the only player with more than three MVPs — he won the award seven times — so Ohtani has a chance to move into second place on the leaderboard as he goes into his age-30 season.

While Ohtani’s first two MVPs reflected his two-way ability, this year’s honors are solely about his offensive dominance. He had arguably his best hitting season ever. Ohtani hit a career-high 54 homers and drove in 130 runs. He posted a .310/.390/.646 slash line, leading the National League in both on-base percentage and slugging. Ohtani also paced the Senior Circuit in homers and RBI while ranking second among qualified hitters in batting average. Luis Arraez hit .314 to narrowly prevent Ohtani from winning the Triple Crown.

Monstrous as his power numbers were, Ohtani was also perhaps the league’s best baserunner. He stole 59 bases, trailing only Elly De La Cruz in that category. While De La Cruz was caught stealing 16 times in addition to his 67 successful attempts, Ohtani was cut down on just four occasions. No player in history had ever posted a 50-homer, 50-steal season. Ohtani broke both marks easily, getting there with one of the best single-game performances in history. He went 6-6 with three homers, two steals and 10 RBI in a 20-4 drubbing of the Marlins to establish the 50-50 club.

Ohtani helped the Dodgers to yet another NL West title — their 11th division crown in 12 years. Los Angeles went 98-64 to secure the top seed in the National League. Playoff performance is irrelevant to awards voting, which occurs at the end of the regular season. Ohtani was relatively quiet in his first October action, hitting .230/.373/.393 in 16 games. That didn’t hold L.A. back from knocking out the Padres, Mets and Yankees en route to their second World Series in five years.

For a while, it seemed as if Lindor would pose a real threat to Ohtani winning the award. He hit 33 homers and stole 29 bases with a .273/.344/.500 showing over 689 trips to the plate. As a plus defensive shortstop, Lindor obviously provided significant defensive value. Ohtani’s historic offensive achievements proved decisive in the end, though this is Lindor’s first top three MVP finish. Marte raked at a .292/.372/.560 clip with 36 homers to earn the highest MVP placement of his career.

Lindor received 23 of 30 second-place votes. Marte finished second on five ballots. Braves DH Marcell Ozuna and Cy Young winner Chris Sale each got one second-place nod themselves. Ozuna and Milwaukee catcher William Contreras rounded out the top five in overall balloting. Giants third baseman Matt Chapman received one third place vote, though he placed 11th in balloting overall. Bryce Harper, De La Cruz, Jackson Merrill, Willy Adames, Zack Wheeler, Mookie Betts, Jurickson Profar, Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, Arraez, Paul Skenes, Teoscar Hernández, Ezequiel Tovar, Jackson Chourio and Dylan Cease all received votes.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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Aaron Judge is the MVP once again. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced this evening that the Yankee captain was the unanimous choice for the American League’s top player this year. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals was the unanimous runner-up, getting all of the second-place votes. Judge’s teammate Juan Soto finished third in the voting.

Judge was the AL MVP in 2022, his 62-homer campaign. While he came up just shy of that in 2024 with “only” 58 home runs, he roughly kept pace with himself in most categories. His 24.3% strikeout rate was actually a personal best, slightly ahead of the 25.1% clip from his previous MVP campaign. His 18.9% walk rate was a few ticks better than the 15.9% clip from two years ago. His 10 steals were a bit of a drop from his 16 from two years back, but his 144 runs batted in were a gain of 13.

Overall, his offensive contributions led to a ridiculous .322/.458/.701 slash line this year. That translated to a 218 wRC+, indicating he was 118% better than league average this year. That was an improvement over his 206 wRC+ in 2022.

On top of his work at the plate, he also contributed in the field. While he’s primarily been a right fielder in his career, he spent a career-high 903 innings in center in 2024. While he didn’t receive strong marks for his work there, simply being able to play up the middle was valuable to the Yanks, given the demands of the position. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 11.2 wins above replacement on the year, a slight increase over his 11.1 fWAR in 2022.

That all-time performance made it an easy choice for voters. That’s unfortunate for Witt, who played at a level that’d be enough to win MVP in a lot of years. The Royals’ star shortstop led the majors with a .332 average and 211 hits. He slashed .332/.389/.588 with 32 homers and 31 steals while playing excellent defense. FanGraphs credited Witt with more than 10 WAR in his own right. Since Witt finished in the top three in MVP voting within his first three MLB seasons, the Royals receive an extra pick after the first round in next year’s draft.

Soto had arguably the best full season of his career, hitting 41 homers with a .288/.419/.569 slash in what may be his only year as a Yankee. This is his third top five MVP finish. Soto received 21 third-place votes. Gunnar Henderson and José Ramírez, who finished fourth and fifth respectively, were the only others to land in third on some ballots. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tarik Skubal, Jarren Duran, Yordan Alvarez, Brent Rooker, Emmanuel Clase, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Anthony Santander, Jose Altuve, Seth Lugo, Corey Seager, Framber Valdez and Detroit reliever Tyler Holton also appeared on at least one ballot.

Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Kennedy: Red Sox Willing To Pay Competitive Balance Tax In 2025

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Red Sox brass have been signaling their intent to have an aggressive offseason, with president and CEO Sam Kennedy doubling down this week, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. As they look to navigate the next few months, they apparently don’t view the competitive balance tax as a red line. “Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.”

Those comments are in line with some that Kennedy made last month, when he also referenced the 90-95 win window as well as targeting a division title. It seems the club is planning to reverse course after several years of playing things a bit more modestly.

Looking at payroll data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020, a stretch in which they won four titles. But they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the results have dropped off, with the Sox finishing last in the American League east in three of the past five years.

Red Sox fans might roll their eyes after chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments last year didn’t lead to much, but that arguably makes it more notable that the Sox have been taking every opportunity to raise expectations again, as letting the fans down two years in a row would obviously be poor public relations strategy.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke of looking to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation earlier this month. As mentioned, this is the second time that Kennedy has been forthright in stating that the club is planning to take a shot at the division, this time indicating that they might even get into tax payor status as they do so. They have already been connected to big-name free agents like Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Willy Adames, Max Fried and others.

“Is that possible? If that’s what it takes, yeah, absolutely,” Kennedy said of adding a mega deal to the club’s ledger. “We are investing more than we did last year. We intend to invest going forward. There is an extreme urgency internally to be competing for the American League East Championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question. The goal is to win 90 plus games to not be worrying about a wild card spot.”

Assuming the club is indeed willing to cross the tax line, that gives them a lot of spending power this winter. RosterResource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $171MM for 2025. The lowest threshold of the tax will $241MM next year, meaning the Sox could give out contracts with about $70MM in terms of average annual value before getting to the line.

That might not even be the cap of their spending ability if they are willing to go beyond the base threshold. The Sox haven’t paid the tax since 2022, so they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. That means they would be looking at a base tax rate of just 20%, with higher rates for going beyond the three further thresholds, each one being $20MM higher than the one before.

Soto is expected to land a historic deal, with many predictions suggesting he could get something in the window of $45-50MM annually. Theoretically, it’s possible for the Sox to sign Soto and still have money for other moves, if they are willing to go over the line. Or even without signing Soto, they could sign multiple players from the next tier of free agency.

Of course, saying that you’re willing to pay the tax and then actually doing it are two different things. It’s still entirely possible that the Sox are aggressive in ways that push the payroll towars the tax line without going over. That could mean less activity in free agency while being more active on the trade market, or perhaps not doing much in either sphere.

However it plays out, that gives the club a lot of possible options in terms of upgrading a team that went 81-81 in 2024. They have some strong core players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and others. They have a lauded group of prospects which includes the “Big Four” of Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony, who are all on the cusp of the majors. Those players could perhaps be used as part of a mega deal for someone like Garrett Crochet, or they could be kept as the Sox address their roster with free agents instead. “Everything and anything’s on the table for us,” Kennedy said. “Free agency, trades, promotions from the minor leagues.”

Red Sox, Dodgers Have Met With Blake Snell

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Juan Soto’s meetings with owners around the leagues have dominated headlines recently, but he’s not the only high-profile free agent or Scott Boras client setting up meetings with team contingents. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that left-hander Blake Snell has held recent meetings with both the Red Sox and Dodgers. The Blue Jays are also pursuing Snell, per Rosenthal’s report, and could soon set up a meeting of their own. The Orioles are another potential club who could do so.

Both Boston and Los Angeles have reason to be in on high-end rotation help this summer, and the 32-year-old Snell, a two-time Cy Young winner, clearly fits the billing. Similarly, Snell has good motivation to push for a swifter free agency than last offseason, after lingering on the market into spring training and signing a two-year deal with an opt-out in San Francisco less than two weeks before Opening Day.

For the Red Sox, Snell would add a No. 1 starter to the top of a rotation that could lose Nick Pivetta to free agency after he rejected a qualifying offer. Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello are all rotation locks right now. Lucas Giolito will join them at some point in the season’s first half, but his timeline remains murky after he missed the entire 2024 season — his first in Boston — thanks to UCL surgery performed in spring training. Righty Garrett Whitlock is also on the mend from his own UCL procedure.

Candidates for the final two rotation spots at Fenway Park currently include Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester and Zach Penrod. Criswell looked to have a leg up after a decent season, due to a lack of minor league options, but he’s reportedly eligible for a fourth option year, which gives the Sox even more flexibility with their staff.

Many Red Sox fans are understandably skeptical of the team’s willingness to follow through on pursuits of high-profile free agents. Boston faithful are still stinging from chairman Tom Werner’s widely mocked “full throttle” comments last offseason, which did not result in an acquisition larger than Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM contract. But Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has taken a more aggressive stance himself this time around, declaring that it’s time for the Red Sox to “deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East” even if that means the Sox need to be “aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization.”

From a payroll perspective, the Red Sox have more than enough space to accommodate multiple big-ticket additions this winter. RosterResource currently projects Boston for a $138MM payroll and $171MM worth of luxury obligations. That projection is nearly $100MM shy of their franchise-record payroll, while their luxury ledger right now leaves them $70MM shy of the first tier threshold. Of course, the Red Sox haven’t been shy about paying the luxury tax in the past, either. They did so as recently as 2022 and have now reset their penalty level by dipping back under the tax line. The Red Sox have an extremely small arbitration class — just Houck, Crawford and Jarren Duran — and will only add Triston Casas, Connor Wong and perhaps Zack Kelly to that group in 2026.

Turning to the Dodgers, there’s an obvious case for Snell as a fit. Connections like this can often be more anecdotal than substantive, but it at least bears mentioning that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was running baseball operations in Tampa Bay when the Rays drafted and developed Snell. Outside their deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — two players with unique free agent circumstances — the Dodgers have preferred shorter-term, high-AAV deals in free agency. That could make Snell, whose maximum contract length is perhaps shorter than other top-tier starters because he’s about to turn 32 years old, a more typical “Dodgers” fit.

One deterrent for the Dodgers could be an already bloated luxury-tax bill. RosterResource pegs them at $270MM in obligations, meaning they’re already well into the second tier of penalty. Snell alone could push them into the fourth tier, particularly on a high-AAV short-term deal. Even using last year’s $31MM AAV as a hypothetical guideline — and Snell has a case for a higher one on another relatively short deal — Snell would cost the Dodgers nearly $57MM in year one of the contract. That’d also set the Dodgers up to pay a 110% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Trades and non-tenders could lessen the sting, but likely not by much. Any free agent dollars spent by the Dodgers are going to hurt.

Still, the Dodgers likely feel they need to bite that bullet. The rotation in Los Angeles has nearly unmatched star power but similarly has nearly unrivaled question marks. Yamamoto, Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow make up a potentially dominant top three, but health concerns abound. Yamamoto missed more than two months with a shoulder injury in 2024. Glasnow was limited to only 22 starts last year, and his modest 134 innings represented a career-high. Ohtani didn’t pitch while recovering from the second UCL repair of his career.

Beyond that talented but risky top three are Tony Gonsolin (who missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery), Dustin May (who missed all of 2024 recovering from forearm surgery and an esophageal procedure) and Bobby Miller (a breakout 2023 rookie who struggled immensely in 2024). Highly touted young arms like Gavin Stone (shoulder surgery), River Ryan (Tommy John surgery), Emmet Sheehan (Tommy John surgery) and Kyle Hurt (Tommy John surgery) will miss some or all of the 2025 season. Dodgers icon Clayton Kershaw will be back on some form of incentive-laden deal — he’s already declared as much — though the two parties have yet to come to specific terms. Kershaw started just seven games last year.

Snell, of course, has his own lengthy injury history — including a pair of groin and adductor injuries that limited him to six awful starts in the season’s first two months with the archrival Giants. However, upon returning in early July, the lefty looked back to Cy Young form. He fired 12 shutout frames between his first two starts, kicking off a three-month run for the ages. Snell tossed a no-hitter at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park against the Reds, fanned 15 Rockies in a start at Coors Field and at one point went on a streak of four double-digit strikeout performances in five starts.

Over the final three months of the season, Snell was comically dominant. He pitched 80 1/3 innings with a jaw-dropping 1.23 ERA, complemented by an elite 38.1% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate that’s higher than average but passable for someone who can miss bats at Snell’s level. It was only 14 starts, but Snell was the best pitcher in baseball from July 2 onward.

Snell has a history of slow starts and blistering second-half surges, but as I examined late in the season for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, many of his first-half struggles have come in conjunction with unusual spring circumstances (i.e. the shortened 2020 season, the accelerated ramp-up from the 2021-22 lockout, and signing in late March last year). True, there are pitchers who’ve succeeded in spite of similar circumstances, but we’ve also repeatedly seen late-signing pitchers struggle early in the year (e.g. Jordan Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, to name a few). It’s eminently possible that Snell is the type of pitcher who simply needs a full runway to realize his best form. He’d hardly be alone in that regard, and that characteristic gives him all the more motivation to have a deal in place well before spring training begins.

Snell faces some notable competition on the free agent market. Some clubs may not want to spend aggressively on another free agent before they know the outcome of the Juan Soto auction, and even those willing to spend sooner than that will also have to weigh the merits of signing a 32-year-old Snell versus a 31-year-old Max Fried, 30-year-old Corbin Burnes or 29-year-old Jack Flaherty. Fried and Burnes have qualifying offers attached to them, whereas Snell and Flaherty do not; in other words, teams will have to forfeit draft picks and international bonus pool space to sign Fried or Burnes — but not Snell or Flaherty. Snell is three years older than Flaherty but also more accomplished. He certainly has his warts and carries plenty of risk, but it’s easy enough to see how a club could view Snell as the most appealing of this offseason’s top-tier starters when factoring in likely length of contract, draft compensation, track record, health and other factors.

Tarik Skubal Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Tarik Skubal has his first Cy Young award. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that the Tigers ace won the AL Cy Young by a unanimous margin. He received all 30 first-place votes. Kansas City’s Seth Lugo placed runner-up, while Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase rounded out the top three.

Whether Skubal would win the award was never in doubt. The hard-throwing southpaw, who turns 28 today, won the AL’s pitching Triple Crown. He led the Junior Circuit with a 2.39 earned run average across 192 innings. He held the major league lead in wins (18) and strikeouts (228). Skubal was essentially dominant from start to finish, as he didn’t allow an ERA higher than 3.05 in any month. He carried a 2.41 mark into the All-Star Break to earn his first selection to the Midsummer Classic.

Skubal fired 76 innings of 2.37 ERA ball after the Break, serving as the one constant in a Detroit rotation that was patched together after the Jack Flaherty deadline trade. He was the biggest contributor to the Tigers’ Cinderella run to a Wild Card in the second half. He punctuated the regular season with seven scoreless innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rays that more or less ensured Detroit would clinch a playoff spot in the final weekend of the regular season.

This was the first season in which Skubal topped 150 innings. He looked like a budding ace in 2022, when he turned in a 3.52 ERA with huge strikeout numbers across 21 starts. A late-season flexor injury brought that year to a halt. Skubal underwent surgery in August and was out into July ’23. He struck out 102 batters with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts to close that season. Skubal was a trendy preseason Cy Young pick coming into 2024. He more than lived up to that promise.

Lugo, who turned 35 earlier this week, had the best season of his career. He turned in an even 3.00 ERA across 206 2/3 innings. Only Logan Gilbert threw more innings than Lugo, a former reliever who didn’t move back to the rotation until the ’23 season. The Royals made out incredibly well in the first season of a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. Lugo’s stellar year was a big reason that K.C. snapped a nine-year playoff drought of their own.

Clase had one of the best seasons by a reliever ever. The Guardians’ closer managed a 0.61 ERA across 74 1/3 frames. He locked down 47 saves in 50 attempts. Clase has led the majors in saves in three straight seasons. He anchored an elite Cleveland bullpen that carried the Guardians to an AL Central title. He’s the first reliever since Francisco Rodríguez in 2008 to earn a top three finish in Cy Young balloting.

While Skubal had a monopoly on first-place votes, five pitchers placed second on at least one ballot. In addition to Lugo and Clase, Cole Ragans, Corbin Burnes and Gilbert all picked up a second-place vote. Framber Valdez was the only other pitcher to receive any top three votes. Kirby Yates, Yusei Kikuchi and Cleveland rookie reliever Cade Smith all appeared on one ballot in fourth or fifth place.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown courtesy of the BBWAA.

Chris Sale Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Braves left-hander Chris Sale has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2024, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Zack Wheeler of the Phillies finished in second place with Paul Skenes of the Pirates in third place.

The award is the final cherry on top of a remarkable comeback season for Sale. He had a run from 2010 to 2018 of being one of the best pitchers in the majors, but struggled in 2019 and then was in the injury wilderness for quite a while. Due to various ailments, including Tommy John surgery, he only pitched about 150 innings total from 2020 to 2023.

The Red Sox flipped him to Atlanta almost a year ago, in December of 2023. The move was seen as risky at the time, as Sale was going into his age-35 season and was several years removed from his prime.

On top of that, Atlanta sent Vaughn Grissom to Boston in the deal, a notable prospect who still had years and years of cheap control. In return, they were getting just one year of Sale, though they did sign him to an extension that covered 2024 and 2025 with a club option for 2026. That extended their window of control over him, but at a fairly hefty price point: $38MM for the two guaranteed years plus $18MM for the option.

But so far, the deal has been incredibly lopsided in favor of Atlanta. Grissom was injured for much of 2024 and didn’t perform well while healthy. For Atlanta, most of their key contributors got hurt this year while Sale ironically stayed healthy, in spite of his recent track record.

Sale finished the season having made 29 starts and thrown 177 2/3 innings, allowing 2.38 earned runs per nine. He struck out 32.1% of batters faced, only gave out walks 5.6% of the time and got grounders on 44.8% of balls in play. He won the pitching triple crown by leading the National League in ERA, wins and strikeouts. His tally of 6.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs was easily the most in the majors this year, with Tarik Skubal of the Tigers second at 5.9 fWAR.

Despite his previous dominance, this is actually Sale’s first time taking home the hardware. Per MLB’s Sarah Langs on X, Sale is the first pitcher to finish top five in Cy Young voting in five straight years, fall outside the top five for five straight years immediately after, followed by a return to the top five. He is also (X links from Langs) the first pitcher to have six previous top five finishes and later win the award, in addition to being one of the five oldest pitchers to win for the first time.

Sale got 26 of the first place votes (full vote tallies from the BBWAA), with the other four going to Wheeler, who logged exactly 200 innings over 32 starts with a 2.57 ERA. Skenes already won Rookie of the Year award earlier this week but this further cements what an amazing season he had. Other pitchers getting votes were Dylan Cease, Shota Imanaga, Logan Webb, Michael King, Hunter Greene, Ryan Helsley, Cristopher Sánchez, Reynaldo López, Sean Manaea and Aaron Nola.

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