Our free agent prediction contest leaderboard is now available! Three of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have signed: Nick Martinez, Yusei Kikuchi, and Blake Snell. Over 4,300 people entered the contest, and six have jumped out to an early lead by guessing all three pitchers’ destinations correctly.
If you’re looking for the leaderboard later, it can be found under the Tools menu for desktop users and under the Flame menu for mobile web users.
While we’ve started to see some movement in the pitching market, with Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both coming off the board this week, we’ve yet to see a prominent bat come off the board. Some of that is just the naturally slow pace of MLB’s free agency structure, but there’s also surely an element of Juan Soto holding things up to an extent. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this will be a protracted free agent saga that lingers well into the new year.
Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reported earlier this week that five clubs had made offers to Soto: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. There’s been some back-and-forth reporting as to whether offers from each have been formally submitted, but semantics aside, that quintet appears to be the top set of bidders for Soto at the moment.
Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that Soto and agent Scott Boras asked for initial offers to be submitted by Thanksgiving, so even if one of those clubs hasn’t yet submitted a formal offer just yet, it’s likely only a matter of hours before said offer is presented. Per Blum, there’s a growing belief that Soto could make a decision at or even before this year’s Winter Meetings, which take place from Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.
It should be noted that the current wave of offers being submitted is not a collection of “best and final” offers. With any free agent of this magnitude, there will be plenty of back-and-forth negotiations. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic tweets that this initial wave of offers is considered “preliminary,” with an additional round of offers likely coming in next week. Talks will intensify as teams are weeded out in the run-up to the Winter Meetings. Kuty, like Blum, suggests that landmark offseason event as a likely endpoint to Soto’s free agency.
Of the five known suitors, the Dodgers are perhaps the least likely. That might’ve been true even before Los Angeles struck their five-year deal with Snelll last night — one that guarantees him $182MM (with some deferred salary but also a huge up-front $52MM signing bonus). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported several weeks back that while the Dodgers will be in the mix they’re not expected to chase Soto at all costs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered a similar thinking last night in his breakdown of the Snell deal, suggesting that while the Dodgers will of course remain apprised of where Soto’s bidding lands, they could also be simply trying to drive up the price for more serious bidders in New York, Boston and Toronto.
To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Red Sox are indeed quite serious in their pursuit of Soto. They’ve sought to sell Soto on the organization’s history of prominent left-handed hitters who’ve taken advantage of Fenway Park’s Green Monster and also enlisted franchise icons Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz to pitch the free agent slugger on the team’s history of touted stars from Soto’s native Dominican Republic.
Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds that the Sox don’t view Soto and adding a top-of-the-rotation arm as an either-or scenario. Even if they succeeded in landing Soto, the Sox would do so in simultaneous pursuit of a top-end starter. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy already signaled a willingness to exceed the luxury tax, and Speier notes that the Sox don’t view the $241MM tax threshold as any sort of hard cap. They’re currently $70MM shy of that level, per RosterResource’s estimates.
It’s not yet clear whether any other clubs could jump into the mix late in the bidding process. Phillies owner John Middleton stated earlier in the winter that he didn’t mind being a “stalking horse” on Soto, and there were reports that the Phils planned to meet with him at some point, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday that the Phillies have yet to even speak to Boras about Soto specifically. The Giants were an oft-speculated suitor heading into the winter, but they’ve not yet met with Soto and reports have since indicated they may actually scale back payroll rather than spend as aggressively as some anticipated.
It’s already widely known that the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes will post infielder Hyeseong Kim for major league teams this offseason. An exact timetable, however, hadn’t come into focus until today. Kim himself tells Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency (X link) that he expects the posting to be formalized next week. He’s planning to travel to the United States early next week in advance of the process.
Kim, who’ll turn 26 in January, has long looked the part of an interesting entrant into the offseason free agent market. The former double-play partner of current big leaguer Ha-Seong Kim, he’s old enough and has enough experience in the KBO to be considered a “professional” under Major League Baseball’s international free agent parameters. That allows him to sign a major league deal of any length and for any amount (unlike, say, NPB star Roki Sasaki, who’ll be limited to a minor league deal with a bonus that falls within the guidelines of MLB’s hard-capped international amateur system).
The left-handed-hitting Kim has turned in four straight above-average seasons at the plate in the KBO, batting over .300 with an on-base percentage of at least .372 in each of those four seasons. He’s light on power but did connect on a career-high 11 home runs this past season, adding in 26 doubles and four triples. Hitting the ball over the fence has never been Kim’s calling card, however. He’s developed into a KBO star due to his outstanding bat-to-ball skills, plus speed and plus glovework. Over the past four seasons, he’s swiped 135 bases in 155 attempts (87.1% success rate) and lowered his strikeout rate each season, culminating in just a 10.9% strikeout rate in 2024.
Overall, Kim carries a .321/.381/.418 over the past four seasons, including a .326/.383/.458 batting line this past season. He’s regarded as a plus defensive second baseman who can handle shortstop and has ample experience at both positions. The Mariners have already been linked to Kim, and he ought to command a fair bit of interest from other teams once his free agency begins in earnest. The A’s, Royals, Pirates, Braves, Yankees and Brewers make varying levels of sense as speculative fits.
Once the Heroes formally post Kim, it will open a 45-day window during which he and his representatives at CAA Baseball can negotiate freely with all 30 major league teams. Any team that signs Kim will be paying not only the agreed-upon guarantee to the player himself, but a formal posting/release fee to the Heroes. That fee, which is in on top of the contract, is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Additional earnings, such as performance bonuses/incentives or salaries on option years fall under that purview once they are unlocked or exercised.
The sweepstakes to land superstar free agent Juan Soto is set to enter its next phase, as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported this afternoon that teams are expected to begin sending offers to the outfielder’s camp this week. Olney adds that to this point in the process, Soto has been meeting with teams and allowing Soto and the officials of interested clubs to get to know each other. The Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers are all known to have met with Soto at this point. The Phillies have also been reported to be planning a meeting with Soto, while the Giants, Rays, and Royals are all known to be among the teams to have reached out to Soto as well, though no meetings between Soto and any of those clubs are publicly known to have occurred and the Royals already reportedly view the offseason’s top free agent as outside of their comfort zone.
Of course, that aforementioned list of teams is surely not exhaustive. As-of-yet unreported clubs have surely contacted and perhaps even met with Soto as he prepares to sign what figures to be the largest contract in MLB history in terms of net present value this winter. As a two-time MVP finalist and career .285/.421/.532 hitter who’s hitting the market ahead of his age-26 season, Soto stands as the rare free agent who would make sense for virtually any contention timeline and stand as an upgrade to all 30 ball clubs, leaving his market to be limited more by teams’ willingness to spend enough to land him rather than positional or competitive fit.
The general consensus around the game seems to be that the Yankees and Mets are the favorites for Soto’s services, as both deep-pocketed New York teams appear motivated as the Yankees look to retain their key addition from last offseason who helped take the club from missing the playoffs in 2023 to an AL pennant this past season while the Mets hope to build on a 2024 campaign that saw them reach the NLCS for the first time since 2015. Soto naturally has a place in the Yankees lineup as their incumbent right fielder, though he might make even more sense for a Mets club that could push Starling Marte to DH in order to accommodate the addition of Soto given the fact that the acquisition of Soto forced the Yankees to use Aaron Judge as their everyday center fielder last year.
That doesn’t mean the other teams in the mix should be counted out, however. The Phillies and Dodgers both already need outfield help this winter and could further bolster the already-excellent lineups that made them the class of the NL this year by landing Soto. The Blue Jays figure to be especially motivated after falling just short in last winter’s Ohtani sweepstakes and subsequently missing the playoffs in 2024, while the Red Sox appear ready to resume spending in accordance with their market size this winter after spending the past several winters on the periphery of free agency. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at all 30 clubs in the context of the Soto sweepstakes of Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
While Soto has emphasized the importance of team competitiveness in his decision-making and there have been questions about whether he may prefer a team on the east coast given his offseason homes in Fort Lauderdale, Florida and the Dominican Republic, the ultimate factor that figures to separate Soto’s suitors is money. With offers expected to be made over the course of the next week, it’s possible that previously-unknown suitors emerge as contenders for the star’s services or currently reported upon suitors fall behind in the bidding process. It’s also possible that the process begins to move quickly once offers begin to roll in; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that the belief around the game is that Soto could sign during or even before the Winter Meetings, which run from December 9-12 in Dallas next month.
The Rockies announced the signing of utility player Kyle Farmer on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2026. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is reportedly guaranteed $3.25MM. Farmer will make $2.5MM in base salary next season and is guaranteed at least a $750K buyout on the option, which is valued at $4MM. The deal includes another $1.25MM in incentives. Farmer would unlock $125K apiece for his 200th and 350th plate appearance next year. He’d earn another $150K at 400 and 450 PAs, $200K for his 500th trip to the plate, and $500K if he reaches 550 plate appearances.
Farmer returns to the NL West, where he began his career as a member of the Dodgers. It wasn’t until Los Angeles dealt him to the Reds that he emerged as a significant contributor. Farmer played regularly as a multi-positional infielder with Cincinnati between 2021-22. He combined for 30 homers with nearly league average offense over that stretch. The Reds dealt him to the Twins over the 2022-23 offseason.
Over two seasons in Minnesota, Farmer hit .240/.308/.387 across 611 plate appearances. The bulk of that production was concentrated in year one. Farmer had a solid .256/.317/.408 showing with 11 homers and 14 doubles in 2023. His offense dropped off this past season, as he slumped to a .214/.293/.353 slash with only five longballs over 242 trips to the plate. A shoulder strain shelved him between the middle of July and the second week of August. The Twins made the easy call to pass on their end of a $6.25MM mutual option coming off that down year.
The Rockies will hope for a rebound as Farmer enters his age-34 season. He has primarily played on the left side of the infield in his career. He has more than 2000 innings at shortstop and just over 1000 frames at the hot corner. The Rox have Ezequiel Tovar locked in at shortstop and Ryan McMahon at third base. Farmer, a right-handed hitter with a career .283/.344/.468 batting line against lefty pitching, could spell McMahon against southpaws. He should get the bulk of his work at second base, where he has played around 800 career innings.
Colorado non-tendered Brendan Rodgers tonight, leaving second base wide open. The long-term hope is that prospect Adael Amador will take the job, but he’s coming off an unspectacular season in Double-A. Amador turns 22 in April, so there’s plenty of time for development. He’ll likely start the season in Triple-A Albuquerque. Farmer can serve as a stopgap with the versatility to move into a utility role if Amador plays his way into a job in the second half.
It’s the second free agent move for the Rockies, who also brought back Jacob Stallings on a one-year guarantee this week. As with Stallings, Farmer is a veteran with a strong clubhouse reputation who could serve a leadership role for a rebuilding team.
FanSided’s Robert Murray first reported Farmer was nearing a deal with the Rockies. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported there was an agreement on a one-year deal with an option. Heyman first reported the $3.25MM guarantee and $1.25MM in bonuses, while Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the option structure. The Associated Press reported the specific incentive terms.
The Royals and Reds made the biggest move of the non-tender deadline. Kansas City acquired infielder Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer from Cincinnati for starting pitcher Brady Singer. The Royals had space on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary.
It’s a swap of big league veterans between teams that expect to compete for a playoff spot. India and Singer are former college teammates at Florida who each went in the first round of the 2018 draft. Both players got to the big leagues within a couple seasons and have been solid contributors over four years at the MLB level. They’re each under club control for another two seasons.
India started his career with a bang. He won the National League’s Rookie of the Year award in 2021, hitting .269/.376/.459 with 21 homers and 34 doubles while appearing in 150 games. India hasn’t quite maintained that level in the ensuing three seasons. That’s partially due to injury, as he missed time with hamstring and foot issues over the next two years. He combined for a .246/.333/.394 slash with 27 homers in 222 contests over that stretch. That’s middling production for a player who spent his home games at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, arguably the league’s most hitter-friendly venue aside from Coors Field.
He rebounded to an extent this past season. The Reds toyed with using him in a multi-positional role, but Matt McLain’s Spring Training shoulder injury pressed India back into everyday work at second base. While most of Cincinnati’s infield sputtered, India ran a .248/.357/.392 slash with 15 homers across 637 plate appearances. He avoided the injured list and turned in his best numbers since his rookie year.
India doesn’t have huge home run potential. He hasn’t reached 20 homers since his debut season. He’s unlikely to find more over-the-fence pop at spacious Kauffman Stadium. India has solid gap power and a good awareness of the strike zone. He drew walks at a career-best 12.6% clip while keeping his strikeouts to a modest 19.6% rate this year. India has hit at the top of the Cincinnati order for most of his career, a role he’ll now play in Kansas City.
The Royals got very little out of the leadoff spot in 2024. Skipper Matt Quatraro used glove-first third baseman Maikel Garcia as his primary leadoff option. Garcia hit .231 with a meager .281 on-base percentage over 626 trips to the plate. The Royals prioritized finding a more consistent on-base presence who they could plug in atop the lineup. That’ll allow MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. and middle-of-the-order bats Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino to come up with more opportunities to drive in runs.
India should step into the leadoff spot, though it remains to be seen what position he’ll play. He has played the entirety of his nearly 4000 innings in the majors at second base. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have graded him as a subpar defender over his career. Statcast felt he turned in average glovework this past season, though DRS rated him 10 runs below par.
Overall, India’s 2024 season wasn’t much better than the production turned in by incumbent second baseman Michael Massey. The lefty-hitting Massey batted .259/.294/.449 with 14 homers over 356 plate appearances while batting early-season back injuries. India gets on base more consistently, but Massey has higher power upside. They’re each middling defenders who are unlikely to win any Gold Gloves.
Acquiring India to move Massey to the bench would be puzzling. The Royals could look to bounce India around the diamond as the Reds considered last spring. He was a third baseman at Florida and in his early minor league career. The Reds could try him at the hot corner while kicking Garcia into a utility role, though Statcast has graded India’s arm strength as middling even by second base standards. (Playing him at third could free the Royals to shop Garcia to teams that might play him at shortstop.) The Royals could bump India or Massey into the corner outfield, curtailing playing time for the underperforming duo of MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe.
In any case, it’s clear the Royals placed a premium on getting a leadoff hitter. They’re paying a significant price to get him. Teams are generally loath to part with controllable starting pitching. Singer is a quality mid-rotation arm. His career 4.28 ERA reflects some inconsistency, but he has posted a sub-4.00 mark in two of the past three years.
That includes a 3.71 showing over a full slate of 32 starts this year. Singer racked up a career-best 179 2/3 innings with generally impressive peripherals. He struck out a decent 22.3% of opponents while getting ground-balls at an above-average 47.1% clip. Singer has always been a quality strike-thrower, and he again kept his walk rate to a tidy 7.1% mark.
Singer’s stuff isn’t overpowering. He’s primarily a sinker-slider pitcher who sits around 92 MPH with the heater. The breaking ball is his best swing-and-miss offering, while the sinker generally plays for grounders. Singer has never found a changeup to neutralize left-handed hitters. Lefty batters have hit him at a .261/.342/.442 clip over his career and teed off to a .291/.367/.488 slash this year. Singer dominated right-handed opponents, though, holding them to a paltry .208/.252/.311 line.
The platoon issues probably cap Singer’s upside to that of a third or fourth starter. That’s still a very valuable player, and Singer’s track record of durability holds a lot of appeal to a Cincinnati rotation that was hit hard by injuries this year. He’ll slot behind Hunter Greene and alongside Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott in the middle of the staff. Top prospect Rhett Lowder could have the inside track on the fifth starter role, while Nick Martinez is back after accepting a $21.05MM qualifying offer. Martinez is no stranger to kicking between starting and late-inning relief. He could begin the season in the bullpen and move to the rotation as injuries inevitably arise.
It’s a nice get for Cincinnati, who again had questions about where they’d have played India. McLain will be back after missing all of last season. With Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, the keystone is his best path to everyday at-bats. The Reds could’ve deployed India in a utility role between first, second, designated hitter and the corner outfield. The Reds had previously been reluctant to move India, who had emerged as a leader in the clubhouse. They’ll need to fill that void off the field, but dealing him for a mid-rotation starter more effectively balances the roster.
It’s a similar thought process for the Royals, whose lineup wasn’t deep enough to match the strength of their rotation. Kansas City still has an excellent top three in Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and the re-signed Michael Wacha. Righty Alec Marsh could step into the fourth starter role. That’d leave Kyle Wright and Kris Bubic battling for the fifth starter job pending outside acquisitions. Wright, who posted a 3.19 ERA over 30 starts for the Braves in 2022, is returning after missing the entire ’24 season to shoulder surgery. Bubic rehabbed a ’23 Tommy John procedure and returned to action in a relief role last summer. The Stanford product excelled in short stints (2.67 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings) and could stretch back into a starting role.
On paper, Singer seems like the more valuable trade chip than India. That’s partially balanced by the inclusion of Wiemer, who’ll compete for a spot in K.C.’s corner outfield. A former Brewers’ draft pick out of the University of Cincinnati, Wiemer emerged as a top prospect thanks to a huge power-speed combination. The longstanding question is whether the 6’4″ outfielder would make enough contact to tap into that upside.
That hasn’t happened to this point. Wiemer, who turns 26 in February, has hit .201/.279/.349 with an elevated 28.5% strikeout rate in 438 big league plate appearances. Milwaukee moved on from the right-handed hitter at last summer’s deadline, packaging him to the Reds for a few months of Frankie Montas. Wiemer carried a .242/.387/.358 line in Triple-A at the time of that trade, but he finished the year with a dismal .190/.280/.229 showing in 118 plate appearances for Cincinnati’s top affiliate. That understandably wasn’t enough to warrant an extended look in the majors. Wiemer only took one at-bat in a Reds uniform.
Wiemer has one option year remaining and comes with at least five seasons of club control. He could be a long-term piece if he hits his stride in his mid-20s, but he’ll need to take a leap forward with his contact skills for that to happen.
The trade is close to a wash financially. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Singer for an $8.8MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. That’d likely jump into the $12-14MM range for 2026. India will make $7.05MM next year and will go through arbitration again in the following offseason. Wiemer will play for around the league minimum for at least another two seasons. Depending on Singer’s ultimate arbitration price, the Reds are adding about $2MM to their payroll.
C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week that the Royals and Reds had discussed an India/Singer framework. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Royals were acquiring Wiemer.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Braves made five non-tenders this evening. Most notably, they parted ways with outfielder Ramón Laureano and recent trade pickup Griffin Canning. Atlanta also dropped lefty reliever Ray Kerr and righties Huascar Ynoa and Royber Salinas.
Laureano caught on with the Braves in May after being released by the Guardians. He had a surprisingly strong finish, hitting .296/.327/.505 with 10 homers across 226 plate appearances. Laureano’s dismal early-season production with Cleveland left his season batting line right around league average: .259/.311/.437 with 11 homers through 309 trips to the plate.
The late-season turnaround was Laureano’s best extended stretch since his 2021 suspension for performance-enhancing drugs while a member of the A’s. It’s fair to wonder if that was more than a small sample mirage. He struck out at an elevated 28.3% clip while walking only 3.5% of the time with the Braves. Laureano has never been an elite contact hitter, but he drew walks more consistently during his best years in Oakland. Atlanta wasn’t sufficiently convinced to retain him at a salary which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected at $6.1MM.
Canning’s non-tender may come as a bit of a surprise. The Braves just acquired him three weeks ago in a one-for-one swap that sent Jorge Soler to the Angels. That was far more about shedding Soler’s salary than an indication that the Braves valued Canning in particular. The Angels were willing to assume the remaining two years and $26MM on Soler’s contract, which wasn’t a tenable price for an Atlanta team that has Marcell Ozuna locked in at designated hitter.
Indeed, MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted within our Soler writeup that the Braves could cut bait with Canning entirely if they didn’t agree to a deal below his $5.1MM projected salary. Atlanta could’ve viewed the righty as a candidate for a “pre-tender” deal that checks in below his projection so as to avoid a non-tender. Whether the Braves never pursued that or Canning simply didn’t have interest in signing at a discounted rate, the result is the same. He’ll hit free agency, which probably would’ve been the case had he not been traded. The Angels would likely have non-tendered him themselves.
Canning will look elsewhere for a landing spot after struggling to a 5.19 ERA in 32 appearances for the Halos last year. The UCLA product has battled injuries over his five-year career, though he’s intermittently flashed mid-rotation potential. He had a 4.32 ERA with a near-26% strikeout rate in 127 frames a year ago. Canning should be able to find an MLB deal, presumably with a lower base salary than the arbitration projection, now that he’s a free agent.
The other cuts were about clearing roster space rather than shedding salary. Kerr and Salinas have yet to reach arbitration. Ynoa was arb-eligible but projected for a salary barely above the league minimum. Kerr underwent Tommy John surgery in June and will miss the bulk of next season. Ynoa hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2022, while Salinas has yet to make his MLB debut. Atlanta could look to re-sign any of them to minor league deals. They’ll likely try that route with Salinas, in particular, as they just claimed the 23-uyear-old off waivers from the A’s three weeks ago.
The Rockies announced they’ve non-tendered right-hander Cal Quantrill and second baseman Brendan Rodgers. Both players are now free agents and the club’s 40-man roster count drops to 38.
Quantrill, 30 in February, once seemed like a rotation building block for the Guardians but this is now two years in a row in which he’s lost his roster spot after a tough season. From 2020 to 2022, he tossed 368 innings for the Guards with a 3.08 earned run average. His 18.4% strikeout rate wasn’t amazing but he limited walks to a 6.7% clip and kept the ball on the ground 42.7% of the time.
But in 2023, shoulder inflammation limited him to 19 starts with a 5.24 ERA. His strikeout rate, which was already subpar, slid to 13.1%. The Guards designated him for assignment and flipped him to Colorado for minor league catcher Kody Huff.
The Rockies installed Quantrill into their beleaguered rotation, with Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela both recovering from Tommy John surgery. They avoided arbitration with Quantrill by agreeing to a $6.55MM salary. He went on to serve as a steady presence in the rotation but with fairly unexciting results. Over 29 starts, he logged 148 1/3 innings with a 4.98 ERA. His 44.4% ground ball rate was around league average but his 16.8% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate were both well below par.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Quantrill for a raise to $9MM next year, his final season of club control, but it seems the Rockies were uninterested in bringing him back at that price point. Marquez and Senzatela should be healthy for 2025, joining a rotation that figures to also include Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner and Austin Gomber, while prospect Chase Dollander is waiting in the wings.
Quantrill will now look for a change of scenery. Though the recent results haven’t been amazing, the Coors Field effect will naturally factor into how he’s viewed, with some clubs hoping to engineer a bounceback by moving Quantrill away from the mountains.
As for Rodgers, he was once a third overall pick and top 100 prospect but he has failed to live up to that hype. He has taken over 1800 plate appearances to this point in his career and has a batting line of .266/.316/.409. That translates to a wRC+ of 86, indicating he’s been 14% below league average overall.
The reviews of his glovework have been mixed. Outs Above Average has given him a -5 mark for his career. He was above average in 2022 and 2023 but then dipped back down again this year. He does have 12 Defensive Run Saved in his career but in eyebrow-tilting fashion. He’s been below average by that metric in most of his seasons but had a massive +22 grade in 2022, a mark that looks like a clear outlier.
Swartz projected Rodgers for a $5.5MM salary next year. Like Quantrill, he could only be retained for one more season before he was slated for free agency. Rather than pay Rodgers in that range for 2025, they will move on, sending him to free agency while they look for alternatives at second base.
Colorado could give some runway to prospect Adael Amador, but he will be only 22 next year and has just 10 major league games under his belt so far. Perhaps they can find a placeholder to take that spot in the meantime, either someone better than Rodgers or simply cheaper. Players like Gleyber Torres, Adam Frazier, Amed Rosario and others are available in free agency.
The Angels announced that they declined to tender a contract to left-hander Patrick Sandoval, as well as infielder Eric Wagaman and outfielders Jordyn Adams and Bryce Teodosio.
Sandoval, 28, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM. However, he’s not a lock to pitch in 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late June. In the event that he doesn’t pitch at all, he’d likely have been ticketed for a repeat of that $5.9MM salary in 2026. By tendering him a contract with that type of expected payday, the Halos would’ve effectively been running the risk of committing $11.8MM over two seasons just to get Sandoval’s 2026 season, when he’d be on an innings limit after that UCL reconstruction. He’d been slated to reach free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.
While the health outlook is uncertain, Sandoval is clearly a quality arm when healthy. He ought to be able to find a modest two-year deal that’ll pay him to rehab in year one and hopefully pitch in year two of the contract. Just days before his injury, MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at the similarities between Sandoval and oft-cited trade candidate Jesus Luzardo, noting that the two are quite comparable from a statistical standpoint.
Dating back to 2021, Sandoval sports a 3.80 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in 460 innings of work. His command has never been great, but that walk rate is inflated by an anomalous 11.3% mark in 2023. Sandoval’s walk rate in the other three seasons has sat at 9.3% — not good, but not egregiously poor. The lefty sits 93-94 mph with his heater, misses bats at a roughly average level and piles up grounders at a strong 47.5% clip. He’s not a star, but Sandoval is a fine third or fourth starter for a competitive club.
Teodosio made his major league debut this year and played in five games. Adams and Wagaman were designated for assignment earlier this week. Any of that trio could potentially return on minor league deals. Sandoval is a near lock for a big league contract, potentially a backloaded two-year deal to cover the second season of his rehab.
The Nationals announced Friday that they’ve non-tendered closer Kyle Finnegan and fellow right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey. Both pitchers are now free agents. It’s a surprise move for the Nats, who watched Finnegan make his first All-Star team in 2024 while pacing the team with 38 saves. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in arbitration.
Unexpected as the move was, there’s a case to be made that Finnegan’s gaudy save totals have disproportionately inflated his value. The 33-year-old righty hasn’t been a bad reliever on a rate basis by any means, but he’s also not the shutdown weapon many might expect based on that All-Star nod and his 66 saves over the past two seasons. Finnegan pitched to a solid but unspectacular 3.68 earned run average in 63 2/3 innings this season. Despite a blazing 97.4 mph average on his fastball, Finnegan’s 22.1% strikeout rate was lower than the league average for relievers. His 8.9% walk rate was right at the league average. He’s also been fairly susceptible to home runs, serving up an average of 1.35 big flies per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons.
Hard as Finnegan throws, neither his four-seamer nor his splitter miss bats at a high level. This year’s 10.8% swinging-strike rate was below average. He’s also quite prone to hard contact, even beyond the home runs. He yielded an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in 2024 and 92.2 mph in 2023. Over the past two seasons, a whopping 47.8% of the batted balls against him left the bat at 95 mph or greater.
Metrics like FIP (4.42), xFIP (3.91) and SIERA (3.90) simply haven’t bought into Finnegan as a premium reliever over the past two seasons, even as he’s been the Nationals’ go-to option in leverage situations. Washington has traded away most of its short-term veterans at this point but held onto Finnegan. Some have speculated that perhaps teams were unwilling to meet GM Mike Rizzo’s asking price in a trade, but today’s non-tender surely came on the heels of an effort to trade Finnegan. It’s likely that many teams around the league simply don’t feel Finnegan, at 33 years of age and with a worsening K-BB rates in three straight seasons, is worth his likely $8-9MM price tag in arbitration.
Some of that trepidation is surely borne from the fact that Finnegan pitched quite poorly in the season’s final two months. The right-hander carried a 2.32 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate through late July. Over his final 21 innings, however, he was shelled for a 6.43 ERA with just a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. Finnegan didn’t experience a drop in velocity, but he was nowhere near as effective as he’d been for the first two-thirds of the season.
None of this is to say Finnegan won’t find interest now that he’s unexpectedly become a free agent. He now only costs money and a roster spot, and other clubs that are intrigued by the raw velocity on that four-seamer might well have some ideas about how to coax more swings and misses out of what’s clearly a power arm. A club willing to look past the poor finish to his 2024 season could certainly dream on the scenario of getting him back to the form he displayed leading into this year’s All-Star Game.
Finnegan probably won’t command an annual salary in the $8-9MM range like he might’ve earned in free agency, but he’s the rare non-tendered player who might also have a chance at commanding a multi-year deal at a lower rate of pay. More likely, he’ll ink a one-year deal and look to rebound before hitting the market on the heels of a stronger showing next winter. He’ll be heading into his age-34 campaign at that point — a downside of not making his MLB debut until his age-28 season.
Rainey, 31, is a far more straightforward non-tender case. The former flamethrowing reliever was a key piece of Washington’s bullpen in 2019-20, but injuries have taken their toll — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2022. Rainey pitched just one inning in ’23, and while he returned to toss 51 frames this past season, his 94 mph average fastball was nowhere near its 97.7 mph peak. He was tagged for a 4.76 ERA on the season while displaying strikeout (19%), walk (12.6%) and home run (1.41 per nine) rates that were significantly worse than league average. Swartz projected him for a $1.9MM salary in arbitration, but Rainey might need to settle for a minor league deal to show he can regain some of his pre-injury form.
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information
scroll to top
