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No Progress On Extension Talks Between Cardinals, John Lackey

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Reports from earlier this winter indicated that the Cardinals and John Lackey would be discussing “possibly reworking” the veteran righty’s league-minimum salary for the 2015 season.  With Spring Training about to begin, however, the two sides don’t appear to be close to either a new 2015 contract nor a multi-year extension, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

“Obviously, the (minimum salary for Lackey) compensation for 2015 was attractive to us. In terms of trying to change that structure, I don’t know if both parties are going to find there’s a very desirable reason to do that, considering the opportunities that might exist for him entering his free agent year,” Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said.  “I’m not closing the door on anything but I’m not pursuing anything either at this point.  I don’t feel that either party is pushing, for that matter.”

Lackey himself also confirmed that there was “nothing close” in contract talks, though he was open to staying in St. Louis beyond this season.  “If it’s something that works for both sides. I would like it,” Lackey said.  “This group of guys…this organization…it’s a great place to be and it’s something I would entertain for sure.”

The five-year, $82.5MM contract Lackey signed with the Red Sox in December 2009 contained a clause that added a team option season (at the league minimum) if Lackey was to miss significant time with an elbow injury.  This clause was triggered once Lackey spent all of 2012 on the disabled list recovering from Tommy John surgery, and after Lackey returned from injury to throw quality seasons in each of 2013 and 2014, he stands as one of the biggest bargains in the game.

As Mozeliak noted, getting an established quality starter for only $507.5K in 2015 was undoubtedly a major reason why the Cards acquired Lackey from the Sox last July.  Likewise, the club may also be wary about extending a pitcher entering his age-36 season.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in December that there’s really no reason for the Cardinals to renegotiate Lackey’s 2015 deal unless they were able to work out an extension “that added a reasonably priced season or two to the 36-year-old’s deal.”

From Lackey’s perspective, he may not want to sign an extension that locks him in at what could be another team-friendly price, as he undoubtedly feels his 2013-14 performance (and obviously what he hopes is a similar or better 2015 season) should earn him another significant multi-year commitment.  This is probably Lackey’s last shot at a such a deal, so there’s all the more reason for him to maximize his earnings.  On other hand, Lackey already has a lot of money in the bank and may be more concerned with winning at this stage in his career, so it’d make sense that he wants to stay with the perennially-contending Cardinals.

Street Seeking Extension Similar To Robertson, Miller Contracts

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Angels closer Huston Street, who acts as his own agent, told reporters at Angels camp today that he has been in “steady” negotiations with the team dating back to September (via the L.A. Times’ Mike DiGiovanna on Twitter). Street thinks a contract will eventually get done, but he has his sights set high, as DiGiovanna tweets that Street sees something between the four-year, $36MM contract signed by Andrew Miller and the four-year, $46MM pact inked by David Robertson this offseason as fair value. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register clarifies that Street is envisioning a new contract that would override his current $7MM salary and run through the 2018 season (Twitter link).

If that’s the case, then Street is essentially eyeing something along the lines of three years and $34MM worth of new money on an extension (using a $41MM midpoint between the aforementioned Robertson/Miller deals) — a lofty goal for a reliever entering his age-31 campaign. The Angels, conversely, are trying to sell Street on an extension that runs through the 2017 season, per MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (Twitter links). There’s no deadline on extension talks, Gonzalez adds.

From a performance standpoint, it’s easy to see why Street feels that he should be compensated at a level that is commensurate with the top arms on the market. Over the past three seasons, he’s worked to a 1.97 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 35 percent ground-ball rate in 155 innings between the Padres and the Halos. His 97 saves in that time tie him for 10th in the Majors.

However, there’s also reason for the Angels to express caution. Aside from the standard caveat emptor that comes with giving long-term contracts to all relievers, who are typically volatile assets, Street is a full year older than Robertson and Miller. A four-year deal covering the 2015-18 seasons would span Street’s age 31-34 seasons, whereas Robertson and Miller are under contract for their age 30-33 seasons. Street also has a lengthy injury history, with seven separate DL stints under his belt in the Major Leagues — three of which came from 2012-13.

Street has never been a flamethrower, but he’s averaged just north of 89 mph on his heater over the past three seasons and relies greatly on inducing weak contact and stranding runners. That’s not to say that his K/9 rate is sub-par — he’s whiffed nearly a better per inning — rather that he is of a different breed than the more prototypical elite relievers to which we’ve become accustomed (e.g. Robertson, Miller, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland).

There are few recent historical precedents for a reliever of this age signing an extension. The most recent comparable is probably Glen Perkins, who tacked an additional two years and $14.1MM onto his existing deal prior to the 2014 season. However, while that deal buys out a similar portion of Perkins’ career in terms of age, there are varying factors that prevent the two from being a truly apt comparison. Firstly, Perkins was two full seasons away from free agency as compared to Street’s one. Secondly, Perkins stated after the deal was completed that maximizing his earnings was never his top priority; he instead had simply hoped to remain with his hometown team for the bulk of his career.

As such, Street would seem to be in relatively uncharted territory. Not only is he negotiating his own deal, but he’s doing so at a time of his career when his peers have typically preferred to test the waters of the open market (or are already in the midst of long-term deals). Were Street to enjoy a typically excellent season and remain healthy, it’s not hard to envision teams showing interest in the three-year realm that he currently seeks. However, going that route would come with the risk of an injury in 2015 as well as the task of negotiating his own deal with not one, but many teams that would likely show interest.

It stands to reason then, that both sides have a motivation to get a contract worked out. Some form of vesting option could be a compromise, though such clauses can prove to be a headache down the line (as Jonathan Papelbon’s current trade talks demonstrate). While there’s no deadline on talks, one would think that each side would prefer to complete something prior to the onset of the season, meaning that Street could ultimately be one of the many Spring Training extensions we see on a yearly basis, assuming a deal is eventually agreed upon.

Mark Trumbo Wins Arbitration Hearing Versus D-Backs

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Outfielder Mark Trumbo has won his arbitration hearing against the Diamondbacks, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Trumbo will earn a $6.9MM salary, which is significantly higher than the $5.3MM figure submitted by the club coming off an injury-shortened campaign. Trumbo’s agents at Wasserman Media Group did well to handily top the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who had pegged him for a $5.7MM salary.

Trumbo, 29, will receive a sizable $2.1MM raise despite missing roughly half the 2014 season. (Conversely, the team’s $5.3MM figure called for a raise of just $500K.) Though his first season with the D-Backs was shortened, he did post solid power numbers, hitting 14 homers and driving in 61 runs in just 88 games (362 plate appearances). While he rated as a sub-replacement-level player due to a .293 OBP and some particularly unsightly grades from defensive metrics, arbitration places greater emphasis on baseball card numbers like homers and RBIs than more modern statistics.

This marks Trumbo’s second trip through the arbitration process, and he’ll look to stay on the field for the entirety of the 2015 season and continue to post strong power numbers in hopes of an even more substantial raise next winter. He’s arbitration eligible one more time before becoming a free agent following the 2016 season. Arizona originally acquired Trumbo in a three-team trade that sent left-hander Tyler Skaggs to the Angels and center fielder Adam Eaton to the White Sox.

Pedro Alvarez Wins Arbitration Hearing Versus Pirates

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Pedro Alvarez has won an arbitration hearing against the Pirates and will be awarded with the $5.75MM salary for which he filed as opposed to the team’s $5.25MM offer, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (via Twitter). The Scott Boras client and former No. 2 overall pick had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.5MM in this, his second trip through the arbitration process.

The 28-year-old Alvarez wins his hearing in spite of a down season in 2014 that saw his homer total from the previous year halved — from 36 to 18. Alvarez also saw his already questionable defense at third base decline, making an astounding 24 throwing errors in 823 innings at the hot corner. That led to him losing the reins on the everyday job at third base to breakout infielder Josh Harrison. Alvarez will be tasked with shifting to first base on a full-time basis beginning in 2015.

Overall, Alvarez will be receiving a modest $1.5MM raise from last season’s $4.25MM salary. Restored power would go a long ways toward earning him one more significant pay increase in arbitration next offseason as he heads into a contract year; Alvarez will be free-agent eligible following the 2016 campaign.

For the Pirates — a noted “file and trial” arbitration team — this was the third arb hearing they’ve had this winter, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. The team won a hearing against Neil Walker (who had filed at $9MM against Pittsburgh’s $8MM) and also lost a hearing to Vance Worley ($2.45MM versus $2MM).

Dodgers Showing Interest In Joba Chamberlain

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The Dodgers, who recently learned that closer Kenley Jansen will be sidelined for eight to 12 weeks due to foot surgery, are showing interest in Joba Chamberlain, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The team is also considering “other possibilities,” though Rosenthal doesn’t elaborate any further on that notion.

Speculation following the news of Jansen’s injury was that the Dodgers may jump into the top end of the free agent relief market — specifically meaning Francisco Rodriguez or Rafael Soriano. However, multiple reports quickly downplayed that speculation, suggesting that if anything, adding a middle relief arm would be more likely.

Chamberlain, 29, fits that description, although as I noted recently, one could make a case that he’s the best buy remaining on the free agent market. He’s certainly the youngest notable free agent left in free agency, and he enjoyed an overall solid year on the mound, pitching to a 3.57 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 53.2 percent ground-ball rate. It’s true that Chamberlain faded in the season’s second half, but much of that is attributable to a nearly seven-percent dip in his strand rate.

Chamberlain stranded better than 75 percent of baserunners in the season’s first half — a mark that’s well in line with his lifetime 74.6 percent clip — and saw that number dip to 69 percent in the second half. Strand rate can fluctuate in small samples but typically regresses toward a pitcher’s average rate, giving reason to believe that Chamberlain could see improved all-around results in 2015. (A move to the National League, of course, may be beneficial to his bottom-line numbers as well.)

Adding a reliever in the wake of Jansen’s injury may seem an overreaction to some, but the Dodgers had some bullpen depth issues even when Jansen was healthy. Beyond Jansen, the team projects to have Joel Peralta Brandon League, J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez in the ’pen, with candidates for the final two spots including Juan Nicasio, Chris Hatcher and Pedro Baez. Non-roster invitees include David Aardsma, Sergio Santos, Erik Bedard and David Huff. While the makings of a solid bullpen certainly could be in that mix of players, man offer question marks in terms of health, inexperience and/or recent struggles at the big league level.

Marlins Unlikely To Add K-Rod, Joba Or Coke

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The Marlins don’t appear likely to make a significant free-agent addition to their bullpen, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports that the team isn’t expected to add Phil Coke or Joba Chamberlain, and the asking price of Francisco Rodriguez remains too high. Frisaro had previously written that Miami was considering Rodriguez and had its eyes on a minor league deal for Coke.

According to Frisaro, the Marlins are comfortable offering Rodriguez a two-year deal worth roughly $10MM in total. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported last night that K-Rod is seeking that same level of financial compensation on a one-year deal. I’d imagine that agent Scott Boras would listen if the Marlins were to expand (though certainly not double) their comfort zone on a two-year deal, but Frisaro gives no indication that such a scenario is likely. He does note that if Rodriguez’s demands drop, he’s the most realistic external option to boost the bullpen. The Marlins don’t have serious interest in Chamberlain, Frisaro adds.

As for Coke, the Marlins remain unwilling to give the former Tiger anything other than a minor league contract. Miami is very interested to see what Rule 5 pick Andrew McKirahan can do in Spring Training, and adding Coke would likely snuff out that competition before it had a chance to begin, as the team already has a second lefty locked into a bullpen spot in the form of Mike Dunn. Coke, though, is said to be looking for about $2MM on a Major League contract.

Another name that intrigues the Marlins is that of minor league signee Nick Masset, who excelled as a setup man for the Reds from 2009-11 before shoulder problems kept him on the shelf for the entire 2012 and 2013 seasons. Masset returned to the Majors in 2014 but struggled to a 5.80 ERA in 45 innings with the Rockies. However, Masset did still average nearly 93 mph on his fastball with a 51.7 percent ground-ball rate, so there are some elements of his rough season that merit optimism.

Royals To Sign Eric Hosmer To Two-Year Deal

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The Royals have agreed to a two-year, $13.9MM deal to avoid arbitration with first baseman Eric Hosmer, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). The Boras Corporation client, 25, will still have one more year of arb eligibility remaining before qualifying for free agency in 2018.

Hosmer will earn $5.65MM for 2015 and will take home a $8.25MM salary next season, per another Flanagan tweet. A Super Two last year, Hosmer had filed at $6.7MM while Kansas City countered at $4.6MM. That created a $5.65MM midpoint — an exact match for his upcoming salary — that fell above Hosmer’s $5.2MM projection from MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz.

Though he is entrenched with the Royals, Hosmer still has yet to put together back-to-back productive seasons. In 2013, he slashed .302/.353/.448 with 17 home runs and 11 steals over 680 plate appearances, good for a 3+ win campaign. But he barely cracked the replacement barrier in his 547 trips to the dish in 2014. He rebounded well from a mid-season hand fracture, and was generally much better in the second half, but still ended the year with a .270.318/.398 mark with nine long balls and four stolen bags.

Obviously, the budget-conscious Royals remain believers. While a two-year pact offers some cost certainty and, potentially, some savings, it also takes away the possibility of a non-tender. And the team will be left exposed to the value of Hosmer’s raise if an injury occurs that would have limited his earning power.

Cole Hamels Hopes To Be Traded To Contender

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Phillies lefty Cole Hamels would prefer to be dealt to a contender, he tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “I want to go to a place where I can win again,” said Hamels. Though he made clear he was not demanding a trade, Hamels did indicate that he wants to play for a winning ballclub, saying “I know it’s not going to happen here.”

Hamels, 31, has represented perhaps the biggest unconsummated trade story of the offseason. With all major arms now signed off of the free agent market, and most teams presumably set to enter camp with their rotations intact, he may well be the only achievable prize left for clubs looking to add an impact starter.

According to Nightengale, the Phillies have continued to work hard to find an acceptable deal. The Padres have dangled a package of Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges, but that was not deemed sufficient by the Philadelphia front office. And the Phils have been unsuccessful in prying their key targets from teams like the Red Sox (who won’t include Blake Swihart), Dodgers (who haven’t offered any of the team’s top four prospects), and Cardinals (who have not agreed to move Carlos Martinez).

Hamels says that he will do his best to prepare for the season in the normal course, and gave no indication that he will do anything other than honor his contract, particularly with camp set to open. “Now that I’m here, I plan on being here for the next six weeks,” said Hamels, explaining that he had kept an eye on rumors over the winter. “I think it would be pretty chaotic if that’s not the case. But it’s out of my control.”

The veteran southpaw says that he crafted his no-trade list by identifying the nine teams he would most want to play for and leaving himself unprotected from those clubs. Only the Yankees and Rangers can deal for him without approval among American League teams, though Hamels notes that he would be “all ears” to the possibility of waiving his no-trade protection were the Red Sox to work out an agreement to acquire him. (He did not address the idea, advanced in some earlier reports, that he might seek inducements, such as a guarantee of his fifth-year option, from a team over which he possesses veto power.)

Rockies Defeat Wilin Rosario In Arbitration

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The Rockies have defeated catcher Wilin Rosario in the sides’ recent arbitration hearing, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. Rosario will, accordingly, take home $2.8MM rather than his filing figure of $3.3MM.

Colorado may have been able to sway the panel by pointing out Rosario’s defensive shortcomings and relatively poor 2014, because it drove the price down a fair sight shy of the $3.6MM that MLBTR/Matt Swartz had projected. Rosario has consistently received rather poor defensive marks (see, e.g., Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs), and pitch framing metrics have not been kind (Baseball Prospectus; Stat Corner). That put an even less promising spin on Rosario’s below-average .267/.305/.435 slash, which was good only for a park-adjusted 86 wRC+.

Of course that kind of offensive production is still not bad at all for a catcher. And Rosario, who battled injuries last year, has shown the ability to do much more. Still just 25, Rosario slashed .282/.314/.507 and hit 49 total home runs over just 892 plate appearances from 2012-13.

In addition to saving half a million dollars against the alternative scenario in the binary arbitration decision, Colorado gets the added benefit of holding down Rosario’s earnings for the following two years of eligibility. The slugger will need to earn his playing time this year, though he may be afforded additional turns at bat by slotting in at first base or even the corner outfield.

2016 Free Agent Power Rankings

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With the sun setting on the 2014-15 free agent class, it’s time to turn our attention to the 2015-16 group.  These players project to become free agents after the 2015 season, unless they sign contract extensions first.  A few extensions are likely, but for now the 2015-16 free agent class has no shortage of star power.  MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents can be found here.

What exactly are we ranking here?   The simplest explanation would be earning power.  These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder.  Of course, nothing affects a free agent’s earning power more than his most recent season, so I’ll be updating these rankings monthly.

1.  Justin Upton.  Upton possesses the profile that most often results in a monster contract: power, youth, and durability.  He doesn’t turn 28 until August, so his next team might be able to avoid paying him into his late 30s.  The first overall draft pick in 2005, Upton has hit 26 or more home runs in four of his six full seasons, including the last two.  He peaked at 31 bombs in 2011, and given his pedigree, there’s an underlying assumption that he’s capable of hitting 35-40.  With the December trade to San Diego, Upton must verify his power in a home ballpark where longballs go to die.  He’s nothing special defensively; Upton’s chance at Robinson Cano money or better lies in good old-fashioned baseball card stats.

2.  Jason Heyward.  Upton’s former teammate can challenge his ranking with a big year for the Cardinals.  Unlike Upton, Heyward didn’t surrender any potential free agent years through a mid-career extension.  The result: Heyward doesn’t turn 26 until August.  That’s about as young as a star free agent can reasonably be, given the requirement of six years of Major League service.  Heyward seemed destined for MVP awards after he finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting with a great season at age 20.  However, he hasn’t been able to repeat his .393 on-base percentage from that season, and he missed large chunks of the 2011 and ’13 seasons due to injuries.  Heyward hit 27 home runs in 2012, so he still owns that skill despite hitting just 25 in the two subsequent seasons.  More than his offense, Heyward’s value is derived from Gold Glove defense in right field.  If he posts another slugging percentage under .400, his free agency will be a litmus test of whether teams will pay superstar money for superstar defense.  If he couples that defense with rediscovered 25+ home run power, Heyward could sign the largest free agent contract in baseball history.

3.  David Price.  This is a very strong crop of free agent starting pitchers at present, but Price is the best.  30 in August, Price won the AL Cy Young award in 2012 and finished sixth in the voting last year.  Last year he tossed 256 1/3 total innings with a career-best strikeout rate, while maintaining the excellent control he established in 2013.  The only real blemish on his health record is a 47-day DL stint in ’13 for a triceps strain.  If he racks up innings this year for the Tigers with another low-3s ERA, he might be able to exceed $200MM without relying on deferred money to get there.

4.  Ian Desmond.  The Nationals’ shortstop rejected a seven-year, $107MM extension offer during the 2013-14 offseason, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.  Kilgore reported that the offer was actually only for five additional seasons, and it included deferred money.  Desmond, 30 in September, has the potential to exceed $200MM on the open market with another strong season.  In terms of wins above replacement, he’s easily been the game’s best shortstop since 2012.  Desmond offers the extremely rare combination of power, durability, speed, and solid shortstop defense.  However, his contact rate dipped below 70% for the first time in 2014, and a continuation of that trend would affect his earning power.

5.  Johnny Cueto.  Only Clayton Kershaw’s brilliance prevented Cueto from winning the NL Cy Young award in 2014.  Cueto, who turned 29 last Sunday, posted a 2.25 ERA over 243 2/3 innings last year with a career-best strikeout rate.  That was a huge workload, especially since Cueto was limited to 11 starts in 2013 due to a shoulder strain.  He missed significant time in 2011 with shoulder issues as well.  Cueto can set aside some concerns with a DL-free 2015 campaign.  Potential bonus: he could become ineligible for a qualifying offer if the Reds trade him during the season.

6.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann, 29 in May, finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting last year.  A few factors put him below Cueto: he doesn’t go particularly deep into games, and he’s generally posted strikeout rates below the league average prior to 2014.  That might be nitpicking – Zimmermann has great control and a 3.00 ERA since 2011.  He had Tommy John surgery in August 2009 and has avoided the DL since.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Gordon is an older version of Heyward – an occasionally underpowered corner outfielder who posted a huge WAR last year on the strength of great defense.  Gordon still has 39 home runs over the last two seasons, though, so he’s shown more recent pop than Heyward.  Gordon, drafted by the Royals directly after Upton in ’05, delayed his free agency by two years with an extension in 2012.  As such, he recently turned 31.  As Shin-Soo Choo can attest, that’s still young enough to garner a contract well above $100MM.  In August, Gordon told Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star he plans to pick up his 2016 player option, which appears to be worth $14MM.  If the Royals are willing to double their current franchise record $55MM contract, an extension could be possible, but I don’t think there’s much chance of Gordon simply picking up that player option when it comes due.

8.  Zack Greinke.  After the 2015 season, Greinke must decide whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM left on his contract.  That wouldn’t be worth doing for something similar to the four-year, $75MM contract James Shields just received, but Greinke will be a year younger than Shields was.  So far Greinke has a 2.68 ERA in 380 innings in his two seasons for the Dodgers, with his strikeout rate bumping back up in 2014.  Another healthy season with an ERA around 3.00 would instill confidence in a potential five-year deal, in which case Greinke would be expected to opt out to try to lock in $100MM+ in new money.

9.  Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija, 30, made his first All-Star team in 2014.  He posted a 2.99 ERA in 219 2/3 innings for the Cubs and A’s after posting a 4.10 ERA in his previous two seasons as a starter.  It was clear that Samardzija’s 2012-13 ERAs were inflated beyond his skill level.  He’s a horse who works at 94-95 miles per hour, and he’s never been on the disabled list.  A wide receiver at Notre Dame, Samardzija didn’t commit fully to baseball until the Cubs drafted him in ’06.  He also spent much of his early big league career as a reliever.  The result is less mileage on his arm than any of the pitchers listed above him, even including Zimmermann.  He could easily wind up being a better bet for the next five or six years than his rival free agent starters.  Samardzija was traded to the White Sox in December.

10.  Matt Wieters.  Wieters, 29 in May, saw his season end on May 10th of last year due to an elbow issue.  The catcher had Tommy John surgery in June and expects to be ready for Opening Day.  Will he be able to throw out baserunners?  Wieters, who was drafted by the Orioles fifth overall in 2007, also must answer questions about his bat.   He slumped to a .704 OPS in 2013, but had a great first month in ’14.  Wieters tallied a mammoth 4,600 innings behind the dish from 2010-13, and it’s difficult to say when that workload will catch up to him.  Wieters could get a nine-figure contract this offseason, but only if all of these questions are answered with a strong year.

Plenty of other players will be vying to break into our top ten throughout the season, including Ben Zobrist, Yoenis Cespedes, Denard Span, Howie Kendrick, Steve Pearce, Rick Porcello, Mat Latos, Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Chris Davis.  You can check out the full 2015-16 free agent list here.

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