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Braves Decline Club Option On Travis d’Arnaud

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The Braves announced that they have declined their club options on catcher Travis d’Arnaud and right-hander Luke Jackson while picking up their option on designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed the d’Arnaud news on X prior to the official announcement. The d’Arnaud option was for $8MM and came with no buyout and he will now enter the open market. Jackson will head to free agency as well, collecting a $2MM buyout instead of a $7MM salary next year. Ozuna’s option had a $1MM buyout but the club will bring him back with a $16MM salary instead.

The news on d’Arnaud is the most surprising development. Just one month ago, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said in his end-of-season press conference that the club was planning to pick up options on each of d’Arnaud, Ozuna and left-hander Aaron Bummer. They did indeed pick up Ozuna’s option while Bummer agreed to a reworked deal yesterday that saw the club essentially trigger Bummer’s two club options for 2025 and 2026, though with Bummer sacrificing a small amount of total earnings in exchange for more money to be locked in upfront.

The new deal for Bummer and also one for Reynaldo López saw Atlanta kick some money from their 2025 payroll ahead to 2026, indicating that payroll flexibility in the coming season is an ongoing issue for them. That’s likely a factor for the d’Arnaud call also, as the club can keep some powder dry for their offseason pursuits and perhaps circle back to d’Arnaud later in the winter.

Per RosterResource, Atlanta is projected for a payroll of $215MM next year, just $20MM shy of this year’s figure. They have plenty to do this winter, as they are set to lose Max Fried and Charlie Morton to free agency, opening up two rotation holes. It’s also possible that they could pursue upgrades over Orlando Arcia at shortstop, tweaks to the bullpen or other moves. Triggering d’Arnaud’s option would have locked in another $8MM today but it seems the club would rather hold onto that bit of spending capacity at least for now.

Atlanta clearly likes d’Arnaud, as they have a relationship that goes back a ways. He just finished his fifth season with the club, having signed multiple deals to stay in town. They signed him to a two-year, $16MM deal going into 2020. Late in 2021, as that deal was winding down, the two sides agreed to extend the relationship by another two years and with another $16MM. Midway through 2023, they agreed to another extension, locking in an $8MM salary for 2024 and the club option which has been turned down today.

During that time, d’Arnaud has hit .251/.312/.443 for a 106 wRC+. His framing and blocking have generally been well regarded and FanGraphs has considered him to have been worth 9.3 wins above replacement over his 384 games with Atlanta.

The club has clearly viewed him as worth $8MM per year in the past but isn’t locking him in at that price point now, despite Anthopoulos suggesting a month ago they likely would. He’ll now head to free agency and be one of the better backstops available. Guys like Danny Jansen, Kyle Higashioka and Carson Kelly are the best catchers in free agency this winter but d’Arnaud shouldn’t be too far behind that group.

With the shenanigans to move the López and Bummer money around and now d’Arnaud’s option being declined, perhaps the money is a bit tight for Atlanta at the moment. Given the way Anthopoulos operates, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get creative on the trade market and move some contracts around, but the pursestrings might be a bit clenched for now.

As for Jackson, he’s had some good seasons in the past but has been up-and-down lately. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 season, just as he was headed into free agency. He signed a two-year, $11.5MM deal with the Giants going into 2023, with the aforementioned option for 2025. He was able to make 33 appearances last year with a 2.97 earned run average but his 2024 was more challenging. He missed time due to a lower back strain and eventually posted a 5.09 ERA on the year, getting traded back to Atlanta midseason. His 25.1% strikeout rate and 50.7% ground ball rate were solid but his 11.1% walk rate was on the high side.

Jackson has had some success in the past and got a solid deal even after missing a full season due to surgery. Spending $5MM on such a pitcher wouldn’t have been outrageous but it’s also not shocking to see the club move on when considering his poor 2024 campaign and their apparent budgetary concerns.

Orioles Exercise Club Options On Ryan O’Hearn, Cionel Perez

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The Orioles have picked up their $2.2MM club option on the services of left-hander Cionel Perez for the 2025 season, according to Francys Romero. Baltimore would’ve still had Perez under team control for 2025 via arbitration even if the option had been declined. They’ve also picked up their $8MM option on the services of first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, as first reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Both will return to the club in 2025.

Whether or not the Orioles would pick up Perez’s option appeared to be a close call given that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $2.1MM salary for the left-hander in his penultimate trip through arbitration. That comes in slightly lower than the figure Perez will now earn in 2025. It’s possible Baltimore’s own internal view of Perez’s likely arbitration salary came in a touch higher than MLBTR’s, although the Orioles’ decision may be as simple as not wanting to decline the option and risk an arbitration hearing with the southpaw over just $100K.

That there was any sort of decision to be made regarding the option would’ve registered as something of a surprise headed into the 2024 season. Entering this year, Perez had been among the club’s very best relievers over his two years in Baltimore. From 2022 to ’23, Perez dominated to the tune of a 2.43 ERA in 111 innings of work. That fantastic ERA was somewhat belied by higher 3.30 FIP thanks to Perez’s lackluster strikeout (20.6%) and walk (10%) rates over the past two years, but the lefty made up for that by generating grounders at an excellent 56.2% rate.

Unfortunately, Perez took a major step backwards in 2024 when it came to run prevention as his ERA ballooned to 4.53. With that being said, his peripherals remained remarkably similar to his previous successful seasons with the Orioles. His 11.8% walk rate was elevated and his 19.3% strikeout rate was just a tick lower than those previous figures, but the lefty maintained a strong 55.8% groundball rate and wound up with a 3.30 FIP that was identical to his average over the prior two seasons. Of course, it’s worth noting that Perez’s FIP is somewhat deflated by the fact that Perez managed to give up zero home runs during the 2024 campaign. While the lefty has typically been excellent at limiting hard contact throughout his career, it’s worth noting that his homerless season came in spite of a nearly doubled barrel rate relative to 2023.

Overall, Perez seems likely to remain with the Orioles as a solid lefty relief option, though perhaps not one they’ll be interested in offering high leverage duties to until and unless he can bring his strikeout and walk ratios closer to the 23.5% and 9% figures he flashed during his dominant 2022 campaign. The Orioles notably declined their club option on fellow lefty Danny Coulombe today, making Perez all the more valuable as he joins Keegan Akin and Gregory Soto as lefty options in 2025.

Turning to O’Hearn, the decision to pick his option up doesn’t register as much of a surprise given his excellent performance since first donning an Orioles uniform. The 31-year-old just wrapped up his second season with Baltimore and carries an overall slash line of .275/.329/.450 (119 wRC+), though even that slash line may be selling his growth with the club short as he massively improved his plate discipline in 2024. After striking out at a 22.3% clip and walking just 4.1% of the time in 2023, this year O’Hearn took free passes at an excellent 9.3% clip while striking out just 14% of the time. A small step back in the power department meant his wRC+ was largely unchanged from the year prior, but underlying metrics such as xwOBA viewed O’Hearn’s work in 2024 as a substantial improvement over his first season with the club.

As impressive as O’Hearn’s evolution in Baltimore has been, there do remain questions about his fit on the club’s roster entering next year. While Anthony Santander’s likely departure in free agency will open up some playing time in the corner/DH mix, the Orioles have already at times struggled to juggle playing time for O’Hearn and fellow first baseman Ryan Mountcastle when both are healthy in previous seasons. Looking ahead to 2025, they’ll be searching for ways to include Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad in the lineup more regularly, and either player could take up the lion’s share of playing time at DH with Mayo in particular even standing as a possible inclusion in the club’s first base mix as well. A trade of Mountcastle, one of the prospects, or even O’Hearn himself could help to clear up the clubs log jam at the position, and it would hardly be a surprise if the club decided to do so in order to upgrade a rotation facing plenty of questions headed into 2025 following the departure of Corbin Burnes and elbow surgery that will sideline Kyle Bradish for the start of next season.

Nathan Eovaldi Opts Out Of Rangers Contract

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Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) this morning that right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has declined his $20MM player option for the 2025 season, making him a free agent. Young added that the club has “great interest” in reuniting with him this winter.

Eovaldi, 34, just wrapped up his second season in Texas. The veteran right-hander was solid but unspectacular for the Rangers this year as he pitched to a 3.80 ERA (104 ERA+) with a 3.83 FIP in 170 2/3 innings of work. Given that rather uninspiring platform season, Eovaldi’s decision to opt out may register as something of a surprise at first glance. A closer look to the right-hander’s season and overall body of work makes it clear why he would opt out ahead of his age-35 season in hopes of seeking what could be the last multi-year pact of his career, however.

An All-Star for the Rangers just last year, Eovaldi has pitched to a 3.72 ERA (110 ERA+) and a 3.86 FIP during his time with the Rangers. Those results are largely consistent with the numbers he posted during his final three years with the Red Sox, for whom he posted a 3.79 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 3.43 FIP from 2020 to 2022, including a dominant 2021 season where he was named an All-Star and finished fourth in AL Cy Young award voting. Those numbers cast Eovaldi as a solid mid-rotation arm, and his underlying numbers suggest he could continue to be a quality, playoff caliber arm even as he ages.

His fastball velocity (which averaged 95.6 in 2024) remains strong even as he enters his mid-30s, and he maintains that high-octane stuff despite boasting a 5.6% walk rate that stands as the fifth-best in baseball over the past half decade among pitchers with at least 600 innings of work. During his time with the Rangers, he’s tended to be a victim of high home run rates, thanks in part to Globe Life Field being among the most homer-friendly parks in the sport. That reality in conjunction with his solid 7.7% barrel rate with the Rangers helps to explain why advanced metrics like SIERA think so highly of Eovaldi, whose 3.88 figure over the past two seasons mirrors that of top free agent starter Corbin Burnes.

Of course, Eovaldi surely won’t come especially close to matching Burnes or the other top pitchers on the market this winter in terms of guarantee. That’s both because Eovaldi’s overall results (115 ERA+ from 2020-24) have fallen well short of that upper echelon of pitching talent in recent years, and also because he’ll already be 35 years old when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in February. While it seems reasonable to expect Eovaldi to earn a healthy average annual value, it would be surprising to see him land more than two or three years in free agency. That makes him a particularly interesting free agent as a potentially impactful rotation piece who may be more attractive to teams that tend to hesitate on lengthy contracts, like the Angels, Cubs, and Orioles, in addition to the Rangers’ aforementioned interest in a reunion. Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino are among the other players who figure to occupy the middle tier of the free agent rotation market this winter.

Royals Sign Michael Wacha To Three-Year Deal

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The Royals announced this afternoon that they’ve signed right-hander Michael Wacha to a three-year contract with a club option for the 2028 season. Wacha will earn $18MM in each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons and then at least $14MM in 2027, with another $4MM available in incentive bonuses. The $14MM club option for 2028 contains a $1MM buyout.  All in all, the three-year pact will net Wacha at least $51MM in guaranteed money. Wacha is represented by CAA Sports.

Wacha signed a two-year, $32MM free agent deal with Kansas City last offseason that contained an opt-out clause after the first year. It was widely assumed that Wacha would opt out (leaving $16MM on the table) and return to free agency, though this new deal will give Wacha some security after bouncing around the league for the last several years.

The 33-year-old got his start with the Cardinals after being selected in the first round of the 2012 draft, but performed as little more than a back-end starter in seven seasons with St. Louis. After his first forays into free agency saw him post below-average numbers with the Rays and Mets, Wacha managed to turn things around in a big way after signing with the Red Sox on a one-year deal prior to the 2022 season.

In 23 starts with Boston, he posted an excellent 3.32 ERA in 127 1/3 innings of work. Wacha has kept that level of performance up throughout his early thirties, with a 3.30 ERA in 76 starts over the past three years with the Red Sox, Padres, and Royals. That 128 ERA+ is already quality mid-rotation production that most any club would happily take as a part of their starting five, but Wacha’s overall numbers looked even better with Kansas City than they had in his two prior successful campaigns.

Wacha largely maintained a more or less identical strikeout rate (21.2%) to the 21.3% figure he posted from 2022-23, and his walk rate ticked down slightly from 6.9% to 6.6%. Far more important than that, however, is Wacha’s improved ability to suppress hard contact. The right-hander’s hard-hit rate of 32.2% was the lowest Wacha had posted since 2017, while his barrel rate also improved slightly over his 2022-23 figure. Overall, Wacha’s quality of contact numbers were among the best of his career, including the lowest line drive rate he’s ever posted in a full season, plus improved groundball and infield fly ball rates relative to his 2022-23 seasons. Altogether, that improved batted ball data left the righty with not only a strong 3.35 ERA but also a 3.65 FIP that was his best in seven years.

Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, the move to keep Wacha in the fold solidifies Kansas City’s rotation entering next season, keeping a front three of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Wacha together while Brady Singer, Alec Marsh, and Kyle Wright are among the club’s options for their final two starting jobs. With their rotation perhaps mostly set, the Royals will now surely look to upgrade an offense that generally struggled to produce in 2024 outside of superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. In particular, the Royals figure to look for upgrades to their outfield mix coming off a season where the club’s 79 wRC+ in the outfield was bottom three in baseball ahead of only the White Sox and Pirates.

While Wacha’s fresh contract in Kansas City takes a quality mid-rotation arm off of the market, a number of interesting pitchers remain available this winter. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Jack Flaherty stand at the top of the market, with mid-rotation options like Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino among the players still available in a similar tier to Wacha for the many clubs who figure to be on the hunt for rotation help.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported Wacha’s new deal, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adding the full contract breakdown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Gerrit Cole Triggers Opt-Out In Deal With Yankees

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TODAY: The Yankees’ deadline to decide on Cole is 4pm CT on Monday, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported earlier today that the deadline was on Monday, rather than tonight.

NOVEMBER 2: Right-hander Gerrit Cole has triggered the opt-out in his deal with the Yankees, per Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN on X. However, he is not yet a free agent, as the club has a chance to void the opt-out by tacking on an extra year at the same $36MM salary as the rest of the contract.

Cole’s original deal with the Yanks was for $324MM over nine years with even salaries of $36MM in each season, starting in 2020. Per that deal, he could opt out after five years, walking away from the final four years and $144MM. The Yanks could then tack on another $36MM for 2029 and negate the opt-out. Now that Cole has triggered his opt-out, the Yankees now have to effectively decide if they want Cole back for $180MM over the next five years. If not, Cole will return to free agency.

For the first few years of the contract, Cole continued to pitch to his usual excellent standards. From 2020 through 2023, he tossed 664 innings, allowing 3.08 earned runs per nine. He struck out 31.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.9% clip and got grounders at a 41.1% clip. He racked up 15.4 wins above replacement in that time, per the calculations of FanGraphs, fifth in the majors behind Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola. He won the American League Cy Young last year by posting a 2.63 ERA over 209 innings.

Throughout that time, it seemed quite obvious how the contract situation would play out. Cole would make the no-brainer decision to trigger his opt-out while the Yanks would make the equally-easy decision to add on the extra year, bringing their total commitment to $360MM over 10 years.

But the road ahead became a little less certain as things developed in 2024. Cole dealt with some elbow inflammation during spring training and was shut down for a while. No structural damage was found but he was sent to the 60-day injured list as he underwent his non-surgical rehab. He was eventually able to get back on the mound, making his season debut in the middle of June.

He was a little shaky at first, with a 6.75 ERA through his first four starts, but his numbers were far more Cole-like from there. He posted a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts of the year. His 25.7% strikeout rate wasn’t quite all the way back to his usual level but his 6.8% walk rate was still quite strong. He made another five postseason starts with a 2.17 ERA, helping the Yanks reach their first World Series since 2009.

While Cole has seemed like his old self for months, the Yanks may still have to think about this one. As seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the largest deal for a pitcher aged 34 or older was the five years and $185MM that the Rangers gave to Jacob deGrom. That deal hasn’t gone well so far, as deGrom required Tommy John surgery and hardly pitched for the Rangers in the first two years of that pact. The Yankees would have to essentially match that deal to prevent Cole from getting away. As mentioned, tacking on the extra year would mean committing to paying Cole $180MM over the next five years, just shy of the deGrom deal.

Cole’s record of durability is far better than deGrom’s. Cole has thrown almost 2,000 innings to this point in his career while deGrom was just over 1300 when he signed with Texas. Still, Cole is just recovered from a notable absence related to his throwing elbow. Most of the other pitchers in this age bracket signed shorter deals with higher average annual values, with Wheeler’s recent extension with the Phillies coming in at $126MM over three years. Max Scherzer’s deal with the Mets was $130MM over three, though he was a few years older, starting that deal at age-37.

The Yankees are facing the prospect of Juan Soto hitting free agency and Cole is potentially a second superstar departure. Some have argued that the Soto situation should motivate the Yanks to keep Cole, just to stave of that possibility of losing two stars on the heels of a frustrating World Series loss. On the other hand, some have suggested that the Yanks might welcome having an extra $36MM of payroll space to use on luring Soto back to the Bronx.

The latter line of thinking would leave a big hole in the rotation, but it wouldn’t be an awful group without Cole. The projected rotation would still include Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman. If the Yanks let Cole go, they could focus on Soto and circle back to him later or pursue some other starting pitchers. They had reported interest in Blake Snell last winter and he is opting out of his deal, becoming a free agent again. The market will also feature Burnes, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried and plenty of others. Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and dozens of other could be available in trade.

It’s one of the more interesting decisions of the offseason. Most free agent contracts bring back the best returns in the early years and get more painful as the deals go along. The Yankees have a chance to walk away after the best years and perhaps avoid the downside. But doing so would mean letting one of the best pitchers in the league slip through their fingers. They have until Sunday evening to decide, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today on X.

Cody Bellinger Exercises Player Option With Cubs For 2025 Season

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Cody Bellinger has exercised his $27.5MM player option for the 2025 season, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan (X link).  Bellinger’s three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs last winter included opt-outs after both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, but Bellinger will pass on the first opt-out (and $2.5MM buyout) in order to remain in Chicago for at least one more year.

Bellinger also earned $27.5MM in the first year of his contract, so he’ll have a $25MM decision waiting for him with next year’s opt-out.  With $5MM attached to that opt-out, Bellinger has now guaranteed himself $60MM of that initial $80MM payday, and could potentially be in line for another long-term contract if he delivers a big 2025 season.

Of course, Bellinger thought that his big 2023 season might’ve set him up for a lucrative long-term contract last winter, yet he ended up rejoining the Cubs for that three-year pact.  Similar option-heavy shorter-term deals were also in the cards for other notable Scott Boras clients like Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery, leading the quartet to be known as the “Boras Four” as their trips through free agency dragged deep into Spring Training.

Bellinger signed near the end of February so he still had the benefit of most of spring camp, though injuries were probably the bigger reason why the former NL MVP’s performance dropped off from 2023.  A fractured right rib and a fractured left middle finger resulted in a couple of relatively brief trips to the injured list, though Bellinger hit a modest .266/.325/.426 with 18 home runs over 569 plate appearances.

While his 109 wRC+ was still above the league average, it also wasn’t the kind of standout platform year that would’ve made Bellinger a lock to top the remaining salary on his Cubs contract.  As a result, Bellinger was still reportedly unclear about his opt-out decision as late as September 20, and he has now chosen perhaps the slightly more cautious move of just sticking in Wrigleyville for another season.

There’s plenty of logic in Bellinger’s decision, beyond the obvious appeal of a $27.5MM payday.  After being a free agent in each of the last two offseasons, a quiet winter with his 2025 destination already established surely had some appeal for Bellinger.  He has also been vocal about how much he has enjoyed playing for the Cubs, so he’ll now stay in a familiar and welcome environment of the Friendly Confines.

From the Cubs’ perspective, they now have a pretty big salary on their books for 2025.  Of course, a one-year outlay for a player with Bellinger’s upside isn’t exactly a bad outcome, and obviously it was an outcome the front office has planned for given the three-year contract.  With Pete Crow-Armstrong now establishing himself in center field, Bellinger will probably be the Cubs’ primary right fielder next season, with Seiya Suzuki perhaps getting the bulk of DH duty.  Bellinger’s ability to also play center field and first base adds to his versatility, and gives manager Craig Counsell some flexibility in figuring out his daily lineups.

As per RosterResource, the Cubs’ projected payroll for next year up to roughly $183.5MM, factoring in Bellinger staying and Drew Smyly leaving after Chicago declined their end of the veteran pitcher’s mutual option.  This leaves the Cubs with plenty of spending space before they get up to the $241MM luxury tax threshold, provided the threshold is any sort of real barrier for ownership.  The Cubs didn’t pay the tax in any of the 2021-23 seasons but may have just barely crossed the threshold this season, depending on the league’s final calculations.

Braves Sign Reynaldo López, Aaron Bummer To New Contracts

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The Braves announced today that they have signed both right-hander Reynaldo López and left-hander Aaron Bummer to new contracts. They also selected right-hander Domingo Gonzalez to the roster.

López will make $30MM over the next three years: $8MM in 2025, $14MM in 2026 and $8MM in 2027. On his previous deal, he was set to make $11MM in ’25 and ’26 with an $8MM club option and $4MM buyout for ’27. This deal effectively guarantees that club option ahead of time while allowing Atlanta to move some of his money from the ’25 ledger to the ’26 ledger.

Bummer’s deal had two club options for ’25 and ’26, both valued at $7.25MM with $1.25MM buyouts. Per today’s announcement, he is now guaranteed $13MM over the next two years: $3.5MM in ’25 and $9.5MM in ’26. That’s slightly less than the $14.5MM he could have made if both options were eventually picked up but he gets the security of having it locked in now, staving off any chance of an injury or a decline in performance hurting his future earning power. In this instance as well, the club moves some money from ’25 to ’26.

Before the offseason has really even begun in earnest, Atlanta’s payroll and competitive balance tax situation have already been a clear focus. Almost as soon as trades were allowed to happen, outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler was flipped to the Angels, essentially as a salary dump. Atlanta got right-hander Griffin Canning in return but it seems their primary motivation was to get rid of the two years and $26MM left on Soler’s deal. Now, a couple of days later, they announced these reworked deals. In both cases, the goal was seemingly to give Atlanta a bit more spending power in the upcoming offseason.

According to RosterResource, Atlanta is currently slated to have a payroll of $191MM and a CBT number of $210MM. The latter is higher because it’s calculated based on a contract’s average annual value rather than what the club is set to actually pay in 2025. The club has signed some backloaded extensions, which leads some players to have a higher CBT hit than their current salary.

The club finished 2024 with a payroll of $232MM and $277MM. Looking ahead to 2025, there’s some breathing room relative to last year’s numbers, but triggering options on Marcell Ozuna ($16MM), Travis d’Arnaud ($8MM) and Luke Jackson ($7MM) will eat up some of that. The club also has plenty on its offseason to-do list, with Max Fried and Charlie Morton now free agents, opening up two holes in the rotation. The club might consider upgrading on Orlando Arcia at shortstop, Sean Murphy at catcher or Jarred Kelenic in the outfield.

In the case of López, his new deal won’t impact his CBT hit. He signed a three-year, $30MM deal with Atlanta last winter, a deal that came with a $10MM luxury tax calculation. This new deal also has him slated to make $30MM over the next three years, keeping the CBT hit the same.

In terms of pure dollars, he is now guaranteed $4MM extra than previously, with that club option locked in. If he should suffer an injury or a decline in performance between now and then, he has prevented the club from going with the buyout. In exchange, the club gets a small increase in spending power this winter by moving $3MM of his salary ahead by a year. His return to a starting role was a big success this year as he posted a 1.99 earned run average in 135 2/3 innings.

With Bummer, the club clearly wanted to keep him around but worked out some details that they liked better than those options. This will actually increase his CBT hit relative to 2024, but by a bit less than if they had just picked up the option.

Atlanta acquired Bummer a year ago when he still had one guaranteed season left on his deal with the White Sox. Per the rules of the collective bargaining agreement between the league and the players union, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated at the time of a trade. Bummer was set to make a $5.5MM salary in 2024 and $1.25MM buyout on the option, so his CBT hit was $6.75MM in 2024. He had a strong season, posting a 3.58 ERA out of Atlanta’s bullpen this year.

If Atlanta had picked up the ’25 option, his CBT hit would have jumped to $8.5MM, when factoring in the $7.25MM salary and the $1.25MM buyout on the ’26 option. Instead, Atlanta has locked him in at $13MM for the next two years, reducing his CBT hit to $6.5MM. They also backloaded the salary so that they have more money to spend on the ’25 club. For him, he’s potentially leaving a small amount of money on the table, as he could have eventually made $14.5MM if both options were triggered. But he now has more guaranteed up front, so he’s protected against a big surgery or some other unfortunate developments cropping up between now and his second option decision.

Perhaps Atlanta expects to have a bit less of a payroll crunch a year from now. Ozuna’s contract will be done after 2025, as will that of Raisel Iglesias. They have ’26 club options for players like Chris Sale, Pierce Johnson, Ozzie Albies, David Fletcher and Arcia that they could walk away from, depending on each player’s health and performance between now and then. RR currently pegs Atlanta for a $137MM payroll and $136MM for CBT purposes in 2026. However, those numbers will eventually climb based on the options and players who qualify for arbitration, as well as with any multi-year deals the club gives out this winter.

Gonzalez, 25, was originally signed by the Pirates but Atlanta nabbed him in the minor league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 draft. Players who have played parts of seven years in the minors, including the cancelled 2020 season, can qualify for minor league free agency. That was about to be the case for Gonzalez but Atlanta wanted to keep him around, so they’ve added him to the roster today.

He was in a swingman role when in the Pirates’ system but Atlanta has had him working primarily in relief since they grabbed him. He has posted huge strikeout totals but also given out a high number of walks. He spent all of last year in Double-A, posting a 4.19 ERA in 53 2/3 innings. He struck out 30.5% of batters faced while giving out free passes at a 13.3% rate. This year, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A. He had a 2.91 ERA in 52 2/3 innings, increasing his strikeout rate to 38.8% while decreasing the walks to 10.3%. Those strong results will get him onto a major league roster for the first time and he should compete for a role in Atlanta’s bullpen next year.

Robbie Ray Declines Opt-Out Clause In Giants Contract

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Left-hander Robbie Ray has declined the opt-out clause in his contract, meaning that he’ll remain with the Giants for both the 2025 and 2026 seasons.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X link) was the first to report the news.  The five-year, $115MM pact Ray signed with the Mariners prior to the 2022 season was slightly backloaded, and thus Ray will earn $25MM in each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons.

It’s not terribly surprising that Ray is taking the proverbial bird in the hand here. He underwent ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, commonly known as Tommy John surgery, and a flexor tendon repair in May of 2023. While recovering from that operation, the Mariners traded him to the Giants.

Ray was able to get back on the mound with San Francisco in 2024, but made seven starts with an unimpressive 4.70 earned run average before spending the month of September on the injured list due to a left hamstring strain.

Pitchers with injury question marks can still get paid but Ray would be hard-pressed to find more than $50MM on the open market. Carlos Rodón had plenty of injury absences in his early career but was able to secure a two-year, $44MM deal from the Giants going into 2022. However, Rodón had just made 24 starts for the White Sox in 2021 with a 2.37 ERA and was going into his age-29 season. Ray, on the other hand, is now 33 years old and has made eight starts over the past two years with a 5.03 ERA.

Taking all that into consideration, Ray’s best financial move was to keep this guarantee. He’ll return to the Giants next year and hopefully get back on track. While it’s probably unrealistic to expect him to get back to his Cy Young winning form from 2021, getting even part of the way back there would be nice. The year that he earned that hardware, he made 32 starts for the Blue Jays with a 2.84 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate.

One Giant starter is departing, as Blake Snell has opted out of his deal. Next year’s rotation in San Francisco projects to include Ray, Logan Webb and Kyle Harrison. Perhaps Jordan Hicks will get another shot at starting or maybe he’ll be back in the bullpen. Guys like Landen Roupp, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, Hayden Birdsong and others would also be in the mix.

If the club looks to bolster that group, the free agent market will be headlined by guys like Snell, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and plenty of others. The trade market should feature Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray and more.

Ha-Seong Kim Declines Mutual Option With Padres; Wandy Peralta Declines Opt-Out

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Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim declined his end of an $8MM mutual option for the 2025 season, and he’ll now take a $2MM buyout and enter free agency, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (X link).  Left-hander Wandy Peralta will be staying in San Diego for at least one more season, as Peralta will pass on his opt-out clause and remain in the four-year, $16.5MM deal he signed with the Padres last winter.

Neither decision registers as a surprise. Kim has hit .250/.336/.385 over the past three years for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he has been 6% above league average at the plate in that time. He also stole 72 bases in that stretch and provided above-average defense at shortstop, second base and third base.

His situation is a bit complicated by the fact that he underwent right labrum surgery not too long ago. His return timetable is a bit unclear but it has been suggested he is likely to miss at least part of the start of the 2025 season.

Even with that injury situation, it’s understandable that he would walk away from his mutual option at a net $6MM price point. Players coming back from injury can often still have notable earning power. Michael Conforto secured a two-year, $36MM deal from the Giants after missing an entire season. Rhys Hoskins got two years and $34MM from the Brewers after his own missed campaign. Both players had the ability to opt out after one season, though neither eventually did so.

The situations aren’t entirely analogous. Both Conforto and Hoskins were expected to be healthy in the first seasons of their deals, which won’t be the case with Kim. Perhaps that puts his earning power a bit below those two, but it still makes it sensible for him to turn down his option today. Whether he can get a two-year deal with an opt-out or a more straightforward one-year pillow deal, he should be able to get past the $6MM he’s leaving on the table today.

For the Padres, they will now have to figure out what to do at shortstop. When Kim was hurt late in the year, they moved Xander Bogaerts from second to short. It’s unclear whether they would want to do that for the long term as they just decided a year ago to have Bogaerts take on the less-demanding second base spot. Jackson Merrill came up as a shortstop before getting moved to center field for 2024. He could switch back but performed so well in center that the club might decide to keep him there.

The free agent market is headlined by Willy Adames but the Padres have some payroll limitations and probably aren’t the most logical landing spot for him. The trade market could feature Bo Bichette but it’s unclear if the Blue Jays will make him available.

As for Peralta, he signed with the Padres last winter on a four-year deal with a $16.5MM guarantee and opt-outs after each season. He went on to have a pretty mediocre season, despite a respectable 3.99 earned run average. His 52.9% ground ball rate was still above league average but his worst in a full season since 2019. His strikeout rate fell to 13.6% this year after being in the 18-23% range in the previous five years.

It it weren’t for a fairly low .233 batting average on balls in play, he would have allowed more runs to score. His 5.46 FIP and 4.57 SIERA disagree on how bad things were under the hood but both suggest the ERA is misleading. After that performance, he’ll stick with the Padres and hope for a better season, with the chance of returning to free agency again a year from now.

Yankees Decline Club Option On Anthony Rizzo

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The Yankees announced that they have declined their 2025 club option on Anthony Rizzo, and the veteran first baseman is now a free agent.  It was an $11MM decision for the team, as Rizzo will receive a $6MM buyout instead of the $17MM salary he would’ve received if the option had been exercised.

The move probably ends Rizzo’s tenure of three-plus seasons in the Bronx, which began after he was a trade deadline pickup from the Cubs in July 2021.  He hit well enough that the Yankees re-signed him to a two-year, $32MM deal that winter, and since that deal contained an opt-out clause after the first season, Rizzo parlayed that opt-out into another two-year, $40MM pact the following offseason.

Rizzo’s 2022 season was easily his best in New York, as he hit .224/.338/.480 with 32 homers over 548 plate appearances.  He was also off to a hot start in the first two months of the 2023 campaign before his career was altered by a collision at first base with Fernando Tatis Jr. on May 28, 2023.  Rizzo picked up what was deemed as a neck injury on the play and returned to action after sitting out a few games, yet he then went into a brutal slump over the next two-plus months until finally going on the IL at the start of August.  Rizzo was diagnosed with post-concussion syndrome, which naturally led to quite a bit of controversy over how Rizzo was both misdiagnosed in the first place, and why his head-related injury went seemingly unnoticed for so long.

That IL placement ended Rizzo’s 2023 season, and he returned to more bad injury luck this year when he fractured his right forearm after another awkward collision at first base in June.  Rizzo went on the 60-day injured list and didn’t return until the start of September, and he then suffered further injury when he had two fingers broken by a Ryan Borucki pitch near the end of the regular season.  The broken fingers kept Rizzo out of the Yankees’ ALDS matchup with the Royals, though he returned to hit a respectable .267/.421/.300 over 38 PA in the ALCS and World Series.

Since Opening Day 2023, Rizzo has hit only .237/.315/.358 over 796 regular-season plate appearances, over 191 of 324 games.  His translates to 0.6 fWAR and a below-average 91 wRC+, and since Rizzo turned 35 last August, it made for a pretty easy call for the Yankees in declining the option.

The health question is clearly paramount for Rizzo as he returns to the open market, as possible suitors will surely have concerns of what Rizzo still has in the tank after 14 Major League seasons.  His track record and respected locker room presence probably means that he should be able to land some kind of big league contract for a low guaranteed salary, if likely as a platoon bat rather than a regular at first base.  A return to the Yankees at a lower salary seems possible, but the likelier scenario is that New York either fortifies the lineup with a bigger bat at first base, or perhaps rotates DJ LeMahieu and others through the position.

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